Official DFW Aviation Thread For 2013

LAXdude1023 · Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:14 am

Hello All,

Having read a few other threads for other airports recently (IAH, PHX, and ORD) and having nothing to do on this Sunday night, I decided that this would be a good time to open a thread for just for DFW. In this thread I will include data to try to support my arguments and thought. I feel that crunching the data will help shed some light on the local aviation market and maybe provide some surprises for us.

Lets start with the recent news of AA's international expansion. Recently announced were new flights from DFW to ICN, LIM, BPT, FAR, and PBC. It would be interesting to hear others thought on how well you may think these flights will preform. I know that KE vs. AA on DFW may provide a good battle, but can they both survive?

How will the arrival of 319's and more 737's affect DFW?

How would a US/AA merger affect DFW?

What new services could DFW support?

Other news or thoughts are welcome.

Below is international O&D data for all international cities from DFW that have over 50 PDEW. These are the largest 18 international markets from DFW. Data is in passengers per day per direction. In terms of total international O&D size, DFW is in the same league as ATL and SEA (DFW and SEA are almost EXACTLY the same size), smaller IAH and LAS, and larger PHL, SAN, PHX, DEN, MSP, and DTW:

Cancun: 240 passengers
Mexico City: 215 passengers
London: 185 passengers
Toronto: 163 passengers
Seoul: 110 passengers
San Jose del Cabo: 81 passengers
Vancouver: 74 passengers
Paris: 72 passengers
Frankfurt 72 passengers
Montreal: 69 passengers
Calgary: 67 passengers
Monterrey: 64 passengers
San Salvador: 60 passengers
San Jose, Costa Rica: 55 passengers
Tokyo: 53 passengers
Montego Bay: 51 passengers
Puerto Vallarta: 51 passengers
Guadalajara: 50 passengers

Following these, Ho Chi Minh City and Madrid make up the top 20. Both are around 45-48

Now for a breakdown by world wide region. The measure is the same (PDEW). These numbers are more approximate and not 100%, but they will be very close. Disclaimer: I broke these down further than the numbers are actually reported and forgive my geography if you dont like how a city is placed):

Latin America (not including Caribbean): 1283 passengers
Europe: 826 passengers
Asia (not including India or Middle East): 505 passengers
India and Pakistan: 245 passengers (almost all is from India. BOM, DEL, HYD, and BLR the main markets)
Caribbean: 232 passengers
Africa: 140 passengers (largest markets being LOS, NBO, JNB, and ADD)
Middle East: 135 passengers (TLV, AMM, and DXB being the largest)

Some things I thought interesting about the numbers:

-DFW-Europe is actually smaller than I thought it would be. In fact DFW-Europe is only slightly larger than DEN-Europe and smaller than DTW-Europe. Its also significantly smaller than IAH and ATL-Europe. DFW-Middle East/India/Africa is much larger than DEN to the same regions, so that is part of why DFW can support more service to European cities.

-The fastest growing international market from DFW (by a long shot) is India. DFW-India is roughly the same size as both IAH and BOS-India and is quite a bit larger than ATL and SEA-India.

-DFW-LHR and DFW-FRA are both smaller local markets than they were 7 years ago while DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD increased quite a bit. However, looking further it looks like FRA is down to virtually every city across the US and LHR is stagnant to most US cities with IAH being the most notable exception. The problem there doesnt seem to be DFW.

-DFW-South America seems to be a market than need some work. The largest market in South America is GRU with 39 passengers a day and then EZE with 30 passengers a day. It is a bit relative as DFW-GRU is the same size as ATL-GRU and larger than IAH-GRU. Overall, South America is not as big as I would like for it to be. DFW-LIM is currently at 20 passengers a day, but with the upcoming nonstop flight, I expect that number to be closer to 35 over time. DFW-BOG is another market that I feel could be stimulated. I do feel a 319 could be a great plane for that market.

-DFW-Asia is larger than I expected it to be. I used to wonder how DFW supported two flights to NRT and one to ICN, but after crunching the data, it appears DFW may actually be underserved to Asia given all the connections AA takes. DFW-ICN was a surprise with its size. It is the only Texas-Asia market that is over 100 PDEW. It is second largest in the South after ATL-ICN which is pushing 200 PDEW (of course ATL-Asia is very unbalanced and ATL-ICN is 40% of the total ATL-Asia O&D, but thats for another thread). Of the cities not mentioned above, PVG, TPE, HKG, and PEK are also all above 30 PDEW.

So, these are my thought which I used data to support. What are yours?

Viajero · Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:17 am

Based on the O&D numbers for the aforementioned Mexico destinations, it seems odd that AeroMexico, without a strong alliance connection present (i.e.connecting traffic), is rumored to be exploring several other routes from DFW including Guadalajara, Monterrey and Cancun. Not sure about equipment into CUN, but the rumor (from the DFW Station Manager) is E190's on the other routes commencing sometime in the Spring. Again, just a rumor at this point, and knowing AM's proclivity to change their mind..who knows.

LAXdude1023 · Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:56 pm

Quoting Viajero (Reply 1):
Based on the O&D numbers for the aforementioned Mexico destinations, it seems odd that AeroMexico, without a strong alliance connection present (i.e.connecting traffic), is rumored to be exploring several other routes from DFW including Guadalajara, Monterrey and Cancun.

I would also be surprised, but it seems there is a tipping point with O&D. IAH-MTY is about 110 passengers a day, yet UA has 7 flights. DFW-MTY is 4 flights a day with 64 passengers.

I would be very surprised if AM was interested in expanding DFW beyond MEX, but I think DFW-MEX is a necesity. Unlike DFW-ICN where most of the market comes from DFW, in DFW-MEX most of the market comes from MEX. Having AM there is very important in my opinion, but I dont see the need for DFW-MTY/CUN/GDL on AM.

DFWHeavy · Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:56 pm

DFW-SJD needs more capacity. Every time I go, it is packed to the gills. I know Spirit is starting the route next Summer, but AA needs to add another daily flight or better yet, add larger aircraft.

IrishAyes · Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:50 pm

This is an amazing thread. Thanks for the effort.

Where is Commavia?

Some commentary:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-DFW-Europe is actually smaller than I thought it would be. In fact DFW-Europe is only slightly larger than DEN-Europe and smaller than DTW-Europe. Its also significantly smaller than IAH and ATL-Europe. DFW-Middle East/India/Africa is much larger than DEN to the same regions, so that is part of why DFW can support more service to European cities.

This is shocking, but once it sinks in, it makes sense. When you lump industry demand, tourism demand, geographic positioning, global economic outlook and cultural ties, it's really not all that surprising to learn that DFW-Europe isn't underserved, nor larger than one might expect it to be.

Point being, I would be very surprised to see a new link from DFW to a European city any time in the near future, or at least one that can be supported year round, and profitably.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-The fastest growing international market from DFW (by a long shot) is India. DFW-India is roughly the same size as both IAH and BOS-India and is quite a bit larger than ATL and SEA-India.

This is not as surprising. I wonder if DFW has room for another Middle Eastern carrier, such as EY or TK. However, I wouldn't expect it to happen for another few years if this is the case.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-DFW-LHR and DFW-FRA are both smaller local markets than they were 7 years ago while DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD increased quite a bit. However, looking further it looks like FRA is down to virtually every city across the US and LHR is stagnant to most US cities with IAH being the most notable exception. The problem there doesnt seem to be DFW.

How is DFWLHR smaller. That route supports 4-5x flights a day during the high season. I am also surprised to read that DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD are ahead.

In that same vein, I'd like to know some more information on DFW-AMS. This is either the little route that could or the route that has clung on for dear life. It officially survived its first summer alongside EK, likely going after similar target traffic. So far, I have not heard of any official announcements of indefinite suspension, so i take it that means it will return in S13?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-DFW-South America seems to be a market than need some work. The largest market in South America is GRU with 39 passengers a day and then EZE with 30 passengers a day. It is a bit relative as DFW-GRU is the same size as ATL-GRU and larger than IAH-GRU. Overall, South America is not as big as I would like for it to be. DFW-LIM is currently at 20 passengers a day, but with the upcoming nonstop flight, I expect that number to be closer to 35 over time. DFW-BOG is another market that I feel could be stimulated. I do feel a 319 could be a great plane for that market.

Honestly, AA needs to sit up and take notice of this because this is one area of opportunity that is probably low-risk for them. Not that I know too many specifics, but if it is such that more areas across Mexico, Central America, Caribbean and North/Deep South America have ample opportunity, they should go for it.

How is DFW-GIG doing. It is approaching its two year anniversary and the flight has stayed at 3x weekly.

DFW-PTY has been a disappointment. You would think that it being Panama, the flight could support more than it currently does.

On the flip side, it is good to know that several non-AA carriers have committed to entering the DFW-Latin America space.

DFW-SAL continues to see both TACA/LACSA go up against AA on this route. I am very happy about that. The market/seat share tends to shift between the two airlines at different points throughout the year, but I'd venture to say that American is the dominant carrier on this flight, but not by an overwhelming margin.

It is very nice to see AM return to DFW to fly to MEX. What are the odds that AM may re-launch DFW-MTY or other important, non-leisure oriented Mexican business markets such as GDL.

I read recently that NK is suspending DFWTLC seasonally from early/mid-January to early/late April. Please confirm this. I find this interesting given that the usual hAAters were predicting that NK would drive AA down on DFW-MEX and AM out for good back in the day

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-DFW-Asia is larger than I expected it to be. I used to wonder how DFW supported two flights to NRT and one to ICN, but after crunching the data, it appears DFW may actually be underserved to Asia given all the connections AA takes. DFW-ICN was a surprise with its size. It is the only Texas-Asia market that is over 100 PDEW. It is second largest in the South after ATL-ICN which is pushing 200 PDEW (of course ATL-Asia is very unbalanced and ATL-ICN is 40% of the total ATL-Asia O&D, but thats for another thread). Of the cities not mentioned above, PVG, TPE, HKG, and PEK are also all above 30 PDEW.

DFW-ICN is indeed a shock. More than 2x the amount of DFW-NRT. That is insane!!! I have heard ICN is a far superior airport to connect through over NRT.

With that kind of information, I am convinced that both the new DFW-ICN flight on AA and the added DFW-ICN frequency on KE will be able to co-exist peacefully. Is KE's daily flight only for the summer, or will it operate year-round?

What are the odds that DFW-NRT will see one fo the flights taken over by JL?

I also believe that DFW-HKG is a matter of when, not if. However, before we get ahead of ourselves, we must remember that we're referring to CX here, which plays a huge role in the development of this route. Taken under this light, CX has a murky relationship with OneWorld and AA and lately, there have been many moving parts in the region between inter-alliance shakeups and the formulation of new partnerships.

I don't think it is farfetched to also speculate that a new DFW-China route could be in the cards. Personally, I would love it if AA launched DFW-PEK or DFW-PVG long before UA does the same out of IAH. It is no secret that UA will be eyeing for some Chinese expansion over the years, so perhaps with impending relationships with HU, AA should consider starting a flight to Beijing.

You also did not comment much on QF DFW-SYD/BNE, but I'm aware we all know that has been a winner and the naysayers have all gone silent.

LAXdude1023 · Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
Point being, I would be very surprised to see a new link from DFW to a European city any time in the near future, or at least one that can be supported year round, and profitably.

Me as well. I have always said, AA or no AA, there are three cities in Europe that can be supported with no problem from DFW: London, Paris, and Frankfurt. As long as DFW has links to those three and about 5 daily flights to Europe, the local market is covered. By the time you throw in India and Africa traffic, 7 flights may be more accurate.

I also have some reliable information regarding LH and KL at DFW. Having talked with a contact at LH, apparently LH dropping FRA-HYD hurt the DFW flight quite a bit. On some days, DFW was contributing up to 25 passengers to the FRA-HYD flight. However, he refered to the DFW flight as "stable and profitable, but not one of the top preformers".

Having talked with a person inside with KL, they are pretty much at their wits end trying to make DFW profitable. They seem to only be getting tourist traffic and connections to India and Africa. They are getting almost no business traffic. Another thing of note is that the DFW-AMS local O&D has been stimulated very little by the nonstop flight. The current local O&D is only 30 passengers per day. Its smaller than DFW-MUC and DFW-DUB and not much larger than DFW-HEL was 4 years ago when Nokia had their better years. DFW-AMS is smaller than MSP/DTW/DEN-AMS. Its simply not that big.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
This is not as surprising. I wonder if DFW has room for another Middle Eastern carrier, such as EY or TK. However, I wouldn't expect it to happen for another few years if this is the case.

Even outside aviation, the Indian community is a huge part of the Dallas' areas future. Not only has the Indian community blown up in the suburbs to the north of Dallas (namely Irving, Plano, Allen, Carollton, and Murphy). The Indian community in DFW is now the 6th largest in the US and Indian immigration into DFW is 5th in the US after NYC, the Bay Area, Chicago, and DC.

Back to aviation, traffic to India is only going to continue to get bigger and bigger and if it keeps growing at the current rate will completely pass BOS. Its already passed IAH.

To answer the question, I believe QR would have a better chance of making DFW work alongside EK than KL. DFW's Atlantic traffic is heavily centered in India compared to most US cities.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
How is DFWLHR smaller. That route supports 4-5x flights a day during the high season. I am also surprised to read that DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD are ahead.

Its the local market that is down, not total traffic. I do expect it to pick up this year.

DFW-MAD is the market that grew the most. Since 2003, the local market went from 15 passengers a day to almost 50. DFW-CDG is up from about 50 to 72. DFW-LHR is down from about 215 passengers to 185 and DFW-FRA is down from about 90 passengers to 72.

The four largest local markets from DFW are LHR, CDG, FRA, and MAD. Not ironically, those are the markets that are served nonstop. As it should be.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
Honestly, AA needs to sit up and take notice of this because this is one area of opportunity that is probably low-risk for them. Not that I know too many specifics, but if it is such that more areas across Mexico, Central America, Caribbean and North/Deep South America have ample opportunity, they should go for it.

Realistically speaking in South America, now that DFW-LIM is starting, the only link missing is DFW-BOG. That would be a great 319 route. At that point DFW-South America will be completely covered.

In Central American, I think a route to Honduras could be developed. The local market is not huge right now, but given the rate of immigration into the DFW area, it is something that can be developed. I cant see DFW-MGA working. It would be nice to see DFW-PTY made at least 4x weekly. Its about 20 passengers a day. Honestly, if AA had E190's, they would be perfect for a DFW-Central American expansion. At that point DFW-PTY could be 5x-7x a week.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
It is very nice to see AM return to DFW to fly to MEX. What are the odds that AM may re-launch DFW-MTY or other important, non-leisure oriented Mexican business markets such as GDL.

I read recently that NK is suspending DFWTLC seasonally from early/mid-January to early/late April. Please confirm this. I find this interesting given that the usual hAAters were predicting that NK would drive AA down on DFW-MEX and AM out for good back in the day

As I mentioned earlier, DFW-MEX on AM is a necesity. So much of the traffic originates in MEX as opposed to DFW.

However, I cannot see DFW-MTY/GDL working on AM. If AA were not flying those routes, than AM could easily fly from DFW to those cities, but the market isnt large enough for two.

Another thing people dont think about is that so much of the DFW-Mexico market (sans MEX, MTY, GDL, and the sun cities) is VFR which travels by bus.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
With that kind of information, I am convinced that both the new DFW-ICN flight on AA and the added DFW-ICN frequency on KE will be able to co-exist peacefully. Is KE's daily flight only for the summer, or will it operate year-round?

This is my thought as well. I cant see KE being daily, but 4x a week in addition to an AA daily is well within range. One thing that I have mentioned in past threads is that KE seems to be the airline of choice for Dallas' Asian ethnic communities. There is some money in that, but AA probably will take the lions share of the business traffic.

I do agree about DFW-HKG. Its another local market than can be developed and is already about 40 passengers a day. However, its going to be a 787 market. I cant see a 77W being deployed there.

As for DFW-NRT, my prediction is that it will become a daily 77W as opposed to two daily 777's. Japan traffic is in a downward slope right now though DFW-NRT is up from previous years in 2010.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
I don't think it is farfetched to also speculate that a new DFW-China route could be in the cards. Personally, I would love it if AA launched DFW-PEK or DFW-PVG long before UA does the same out of IAH. It is no secret that UA will be eyeing for some Chinese expansion over the years, so perhaps with impending relationships with HU, AA should consider starting a flight to Beijing.

I dont see DFW-China being a priority for anyone. The local market isnt large enough (in my opinion) nor high yielding enough not to mention AA has no good partner there. I think IAH-China would be a better fit.

What I do think AA should consider is getting a codeshare relationship with a local carrier in Seoul. Perhaps Jeju Air or someone similar.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
You also did not comment much on QF DFW-SYD/BNE, but I'm aware we all know that has been a winner and the naysayers have all gone silent.

Funny thing is that the local market has been stimulated. DFW-SYD went from being 12 passengers a day to almost 30. DFW-MEL went from 8 to 20 as did DFW-BNE. DFW-ADL and DFW-PER also blew up.

The naysayers have become quiet. Thats a victory enough for me!

AAIL86 · Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:17 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
How will the arrival of 319's and more 737's affect DFW?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Vancouver: 74 passengers

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
Montreal: 69 passengers

I would think frequency would increase x2/x3 daily on those routes at the expense of the larger aircraft currently on them. DFW-YUL being only x1 has always been a suprise to me ....

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
I dont see DFW-China being a priority for anyone.

AA has already tried to start DFW-PEK once - perhaps the less premium heavy 772s could give this a shot?

Speaking of the reconfigured 772s, I see these changing what AA does from DFW quite a bit. SCL, CDG, and MAD being a few potential upgrades. I wonder what other routes might be possible with the new economics of this aircraft along with the new contracts?

CIDFlyer · Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:00 am

interesting thread, I love the DFW hub and have been through there alot. As for a US/AA merger I see DFW remaining as the largest hub in the system. It would be interesting to see if some interior markets that are served through DFW like CAE, CHS, TYS, etc would be kept linked to DFW or if those flights would be shifted through CLT. 50 seat jets are tough on long flights like these. Hopefully they would get a larger sized 70-90 seat aircraft to handle these kinda flights.

Im interested to see how the terminal remodeling is going. I was there in October and they are still working on the north side of A. Obviously it is going to be an extensive project since it will take a few years to complete and A, B, C and E are a bit dated but it will be nice to see the finished product. Supposedly its supposed to have the same feel as D, which is probably one of my favorite terminals outside DTW's Delta terminal.

gdg9 · Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:43 am

Great thread!

How about Interjet starting up some routes from DFW to Mexico? Or Volaris?

Viajero · Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:46 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Realistically speaking in South America, now that DFW-LIM is starting, the only link missing is DFW-BOG. That would be a great 319 route. At that point DFW-South America will be completely covered.

It certainly will be, and with the advent of the "new" Avianca, sources with TACA at DFW seem to think that the market will be served in the not too distant future with Avianca metal. Not sure if AA has any interest in resuming the route, as it was discontinued some years ago.

IrishAyes · Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:27 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
I also have some reliable information regarding LH and KL at DFW. Having talked with a contact at LH, apparently LH dropping FRA-HYD hurt the DFW flight quite a bit. On some days, DFW was contributing up to 25 passengers to the FRA-HYD flight. However, he refered to the DFW flight as "stable and profitable, but not one of the top preformers

I can believe this. The FRA connection is absolutely miserable though. HYD people are probably better off relying on EK.

DFW will remain as a placeholder spoke in the LH network from FRA but beyond that, not much else.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Having talked with a person inside with KL, they are pretty much at their wits end trying to make DFW profitable. They seem to only be getting tourist traffic and connections to India and Africa. They are getting almost no business traffic. Another thing of note is that the DFW-AMS local O&D has been stimulated very little by the nonstop flight. The current local O&D is only 30 passengers per day. Its smaller than DFW-MUC and DFW-DUB and not much larger than DFW-HEL was 4 years ago when Nokia had their better years. DFW-AMS is smaller than MSP/DTW/DEN-AMS. Its simply not that big.

This is highly unfortunate.

It is logical, however given the immense emphasis on DFW-LHR. I wonder if AA would ever have success on this route.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
To answer the question, I believe QR would have a better chance of making DFW work alongside EK than KL.

Without question. I failed to take into account that QR is headed to OneWorld and EY has been warming up to SkyTeam, so I reverse my predictions to swap QR to come to DFW before EY.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Honestly, if AA had E190's, they would be perfect for a DFW-Central American expansion. At that point DFW-PTY could be 5x-7x a week.

Well, in that line of thought, if you're thinking what i'm thinking, a hypothetical US-AA merger could provide that opportunity since US will have the a/c for these routes.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Another thing people dont think about is that so much of the DFW-Mexico market (sans MEX, MTY, GDL, and the sun cities) is VFR which travels by bus.

Good point.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
I cant see KE being daily, but 4x a week in addition to an AA daily is well within range.

You never know, dude. KE has seen stranger things happen in DFW, arguably the biggest testament being its commitment to the market post Delta/SkyTeam fallout in 2005.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 6):
I would think frequency would increase x2/x3 daily on those routes at the expense of the larger aircraft currently on them. DFW-YUL being only x1 has always been a suprise to me ....

Same here.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 6):
AA has already tried to start DFW-PEK once - perhaps the less premium heavy 772s could give this a shot?

No, AA applied to start DFWPEK back in 2006 when the US DOT was granting Chinese routes, but literally weeks before DOT awarded the decisions (between AA, UA, CO and NW) AA had to file a modification to their bid because it could not get pilots to agree to make contractual exceptions to the flight time on the outbound DFWPEK leg since it exceeded agreed duty time limits by an average of something like 15 mins. As such the application had to be adjusted to fly DFW-ORD-PEK-DFW instead in a triangular routing which totally tanked the whole situation and AA lost the bid to UA, otherwise it would have been a slam dunk, IMO.

The whole thing was absurd and tragic, to say the least. However, it's questionable whether or not this flight would have survived unprecedented conditions that later came about, such as the global economic outlook, H1N1, AA's Ch.11 filing, and the overall softness that the US-China routes have ultimately shown.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 6):
Speaking of the reconfigured 772s, I see these changing what AA does from DFW quite a bit. SCL, CDG, and MAD being a few potential upgrades. I wonder what other routes might be possible with the new economics of this aircraft along with the new contracts?

Definitely possible. A lot of the existing 767 routes for DFW are hopefully ripe candidates for 777 upgrades with the cabin reconfigurations, alongside hopefully the launch of a few new routes. DFW-FRA is in desperate need of a 777 again, as is ORD-CDG and a few of the JFK-Europe flights. AA could also get creative and possibly explore a few new MIA-Europe services.

Quoting Viajero (Reply 9):
It certainly will be, and with the advent of the "new" Avianca, sources with TACA at DFW seem to think that the market will be served in the not too distant future with Avianca metal. Not sure if AA has any interest in resuming the route, as it was discontinued some years ago.

AA flew DFWBOG previously? That's a first! AV coming to DFW would be really neat.

LAXdude1023 · Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:26 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
interesting thread, I love the DFW hub and have been through there alot. As for a US/AA merger I see DFW remaining as the largest hub in the system. It would be interesting to see if some interior markets that are served through DFW like CAE, CHS, TYS, etc would be kept linked to DFW or if those flights would be shifted through CLT. 50 seat jets are tough on long flights like these. Hopefully they would get a larger sized 70-90 seat aircraft to handle these kinda flights.

Speaking of which, DFW-CID has extremely high yields. At one time (and I dont know if its still this way), DFW-CID had higher yields than any other flight to CID. Lots of last minute tickets bought at up to $1200 round trip.

More 90 seat planes would be excellent for in between markets like DSM, LEX, or GSO.

Quoting gdg9 (Reply 8):
How about Interjet starting up some routes from DFW to Mexico? Or Volaris?

Given AA's expansion into smaller markets in Mexico, it would be harder. Volaris probably would have been interested in DAL, but it wont be open to international flights. Outside of the usual suspects (MEX, GDL, MTY, CUN, PVR, and SJD) BJX is the largest DFW O&D market at 45 passengers. Most of the smaller markets in Mexico that have service to DFW (CUU, SLP, AGU, TRC, QRO, MLM) are between 10 and 17 passengers a day a piece.

Given that AM is coming to DFW-MEX (which Ive said I thought was a must given the size of the market), I think things are pretty much covered for other non-AA carriers to Mexico. The only thing is that there is definately room for more Mexico expansion from DFW. ZCL and DGO are the two destinations that stick out most.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
Well, in that line of thought, if you're thinking what i'm thinking, a hypothetical US-AA merger could provide that opportunity since US will have the a/c for these routes.

That a huge reason Ive warmed up to the idea.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
I wonder if AA would ever have success on this route.

DFW-AMS? I doubt it. If AA was going to add another destination in Europe from DFW, it should probably be Berlin or Barcelona just because of alliance ties. Other than the LHR, CDG, FRA, and MAD, the largest O&D market from DFW is FCO, but the yields are trash. Not worth going after.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
Definitely possible. A lot of the existing 767 routes for DFW are hopefully ripe candidates for 777 upgrades with the cabin reconfigurations, alongside hopefully the launch of a few new routes. DFW-FRA is in desperate need of a 777 again, as is ORD-CDG and a few of the JFK-Europe flights. AA could also get creative and possibly explore a few new MIA-Europe services.

I may be alone in this thought, but if I was going to put a newly configured 2-class 777 on a route from DFW, MAD and CDG would be the first ones. Traffic is down on DFW-FRA and so are yields. DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD are up on both accounts.

Outside of DFW, MIA-MAD and MIA-SCL would be good fits for it.

IrishAyes · Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:57 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):
t should probably be Berlin or Barcelona just because of alliance ties.

I'd be cautious about either of those, even. BCN is not an IAG hub. Even a partnership with Vueling wouldn't incur much.

BER I'm worried about. The whole tripartite commercial agreement situation with Etihad and AF-KL Group, to me, is very confounding. Then, you have the next layer over with what's going on with Delta, VS, VA/DJ etc. At the end of the day, the benefits of AB joining OW have yet to be fully realized 6 months + after the fact. Granted, the new airport hasn't been finished, and the new ORD-DUS and ORD-BBI flights have not commenced yet, but there are just a lot of missing data points. AB is also struggling to make a profit.

At any rate, I am going off-topic, that is a separate thread in and of itself.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):
I may be alone in this thought, but if I was going to put a newly configured 2-class 777 on a route from DFW, MAD and CDG would be the first ones. Traffic is down on DFW-FRA and so are yields. DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD are up on both accounts.

Ya. But read what you posted earlier...

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Thread starter):
-DFW-LHR and DFW-FRA are both smaller local markets than they were 7 years ago while DFW-CDG and DFW-MAD increased quite a bit. However, looking further it looks like FRA is down to virtually every city across the US and LHR is stagnant to most US cities with IAH being the most notable exception. The problem there doesnt seem to be DFW.

...so while DFW-FRA is down, it is still as large as DFWCDG and way larger than DFWMAD. Although the other two are showing signs of growth, I think the relative size factor still cannot be overlooked here in context. Especially since AA is competing against LH on this route, which offers a far superior product and an F cabin. Of course, I don't have insider information about how yield performance breaks down between the two carriers, but as you mentioned, this has less to do with it being a DFWFRA issue and moreso being a FRA issue in and of itself.

Noticeably, UA/LH is stepping up its game on the TATL JV routes by deploying new a/c and capacity from FRA to LAX (748i), IAH (A380), SFO and others. It would be nice to see OneWorld show some love to Germany.

FlyingSicilian · Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:50 pm

Well DFW-BPT should do well since UA switched to the dedicated bus service to IAH but UA (from CO) has a good sized fflyer base in the Golden Triangle. I think it will be here to stay.

LAXdude1023 · Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:00 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 13):
Well DFW-BPT should do well since UA switched to the dedicated bus service to IAH but UA (from CO) has a good sized fflyer base in the Golden Triangle. I think it will be here to stay.

I know a few myself. They are just driving to IAH to fly for now.

I do think AA will make some in roads here because there are going to be quite a few people who wont want the bus or to have to drive to IAH.

mhkansan · Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:22 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):
Traffic is down on DFW-FRA and so are yields.

AA has put a weaker product and a smaller airplane on the route. Whenever I check the flights are running full. They should be, considering that it is AA's only flight to Germany, one of the world's largest and strongest economies. Surely Star has the upper hand in the German market, but FRA is a global financial center on the scale of NYC, LHR, and NRT. While it isn't a oneworld hub, any global carrier like AA should have reasonable service there. Maybe it doesn't work from ORD, but JFK or MAD? Will AA try it? I think they ought to. I'm hoping there's some real success stories brought about by the AB partnership. IrishAyes is right, there are a ton of unknown numbers yet. I think the oneworld frequent flyer market will grow in Germany and in Eastern Europe and that ought to boost AA and AB patonage in Germany and points East. Those kinds of things take time and money to grow and for an economy like Germany, I hope IAG thinks its worth it.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):
I do think AA will make some in roads here because there are going to be quite a few people who wont want the bus or to have to drive to IAH.

AA has service to quite a number of places in the area - LCH, MLU, LFT, BTR, AEX, SHV and now BPT. Especially if you're headed West or anywhere honestly, frequent service to America's second-largest hub should be a good selling point to win over frequent fliers in that area, especially when you have your choice of airports. It has certainly worked for AA before in the TUL, FSM, SGF, XNA, JLN area! Frequent fliers galore!

AAIL86 · Wed Dec 05, 2012 2:38 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):
I may be alone in this thought, but if I was going to put a newly configured 2-class 777 on a route from DFW, MAD and CDG would be the first ones.

My money would be on DFW-SCL, especially in the northern winter. AA does well on cargo to and especially from SCL,and the 772 would provide a lot more lift underneath the wings.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 12):
BER I'm worried about. The whole tripartite commercial agreement situation with Etihad and AF-KL Group, to me, is very confounding. ....... Granted, the new airport hasn't been finished, and the new ORD-DUS and ORD-BBI flights have not commenced yet, but there are just a lot of missing data points. AB is also struggling to make a profit.

I can't see DFW-BER ever working. Honestly, I could see DFW-BRU/FCO/MAN/HEL(not that those are likely, either!) happening before DFW-BER, just because AA is so overmatched in Germany right now its ridiculous....

[Edited 2012-12-04 18:41:45 by AAIL86]

LAXdude1023 · Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:34 am

Quoting AAil86 (Reply 16):
My money would be on DFW-SCL, especially in the northern winter. AA does well on cargo to and especially from SCL,and the 772 would provide a lot more lift underneath the wings.

Lots of truth to that, but I still cant see the 772 being more in demand on DFW-SCL vs. MIA-SCL.

Quoting AAil86 (Reply 16):
I can't see DFW-BER ever working. Honestly, I could see DFW-BRU/FCO/MAN/HEL(not that those are likely, either!) happening before DFW-BER, just because AA is so overmatched in Germany right now its ridiculous....

True. Truth be told, I think DFW is pretty set to Europe right now. I cant think of another destination it could support.

What DFW could support is another Gulf Carrier, more Central America/Mexico destinations, BOG, and HKG (over time).

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
AA has put a weaker product and a smaller airplane on the route. Whenever I check the flights are running full. They should be, considering that it is AA's only flight to Germany, one of the world's largest and strongest economies. Surely Star has the upper hand in the German market, but FRA is a global financial center on the scale of NYC, LHR, and NRT. While it isn't a oneworld hub, any global carrier like AA should have reasonable service there. Maybe it doesn't work from ORD, but JFK or MAD? Will AA try it? I think they ought to. I'm hoping there's some real success stories brought about by the AB partnership. IrishAyes is right, there are a ton of unknown numbers yet. I think the oneworld frequent flyer market will grow in Germany and in Eastern Europe and that ought to boost AA and AB patonage in Germany and points East. Those kinds of things take time and money to grow and for an economy like Germany, I hope IAG thinks its worth it.

Truth be told, Im a little uncertain about the future of DFW-FRA. Traffic really needs to grow on the local market to what it was. Looking at historical data, there was a times when it was close to 100 PDEW but now its around 75. Im wondering if it would be better to send a DFW flight to an AB city or if its worth duking it out for the O&D if it goes back up. AAIL86 is right, DFW-BER would be horrible from an O&D perspective. DFW-HEL is much larger than DFW-BER if that tells you anything. DFW-DUS is also larger than DFW-BER, so that could be an option as well.

However, everything aside, if AA did get rid of DFW-FRA, I doubt they would replace it with another city in German. It would probably mean just another LHR flight.

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
AA has service to quite a number of places in the area - LCH, MLU, LFT, BTR, AEX, SHV and now BPT. Especially if you're headed West or anywhere honestly, frequent service to America's second-largest hub should be a good selling point to win over frequent fliers in that area, especially when you have your choice of airports. It has certainly worked for AA before in the TUL, FSM, SGF, XNA, JLN area! Frequent fliers galore!

AA stumbled into a gold mine with the expansion to the smaller cities in the midwest from DFW. Markets like MHK, FSD, SAF, and GRI are producing quite high fares. Its too bad they didnt have the same success with the markets in the Southeast. To me, I think it solidifies that DFW is more of a Midwestern hub than a Southern one.

sccutler · Wed Dec 05, 2012 5:48 am

Great discussion here, and thanks to all for your insightful comments and information.

IrishAyes · Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:59 pm

Quoting AAil86 (Reply 16):
Honestly, I could see DFW-BRU/FCO/MAN/HEL(not that those are likely, either!) happening before DFW-BER

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
DFW-HEL is much larger than DFW-BER if that tells you anything.

The challenge with HEL is that AY's strategy is pretty much centered around connecting Europe with Asia rather than North America (sans for large O&D markets like JFK and the seasonal YYZ). With QR joining OW, and SK's weakening position in Scandinavia, I think AY is becoming increasingly aggressive about leveraging this strategy as they've started venturing into secondary Asian cities and grab market share.

Given HEL's geographic location, I'm not sure what value would be added by deploying a Finnair bird to DFW, when the vast majority of DFW-Europe connections are handled over LHR and MAD (to a lesser degree). AA could theoretically launch DFW-HEL, but they're trying to accomplish that on a seasonal basis out of ORD. Would there be room for DFW in there as well? IDK...even though I'm aware a nonstop DFWHEL link would be the equivalent of 5 years worth of Christmas gifts for LAXdude1023, I just don't see it happening anytime soon (although, you never know).

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
Im wondering if it would be better to send a DFW flight to an AB city or if its worth duking it out for the O&D if it goes back up.

Yet again, I'd fall back on my defensive stance against AB vs. OneWorld and just kind of considering all-around longevity predictions.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
However, everything aside, if AA did get rid of DFW-FRA, I doubt they would replace it with another city in German. It would probably mean just another LHR flight.

If this ever did happen, imagine what an embarrassment it would be to AA...

LAXdude1023 · Wed Dec 05, 2012 5:26 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 19):
Given HEL's geographic location, I'm not sure what value would be added by deploying a Finnair bird to DFW, when the vast majority of DFW-Europe connections are handled over LHR and MAD (to a lesser degree). AA could theoretically launch DFW-HEL, but they're trying to accomplish that on a seasonal basis out of ORD. Would there be room for DFW in there as well? IDK...even though I'm aware a nonstop DFWHEL link would be the equivalent of 5 years worth of Christmas gifts for LAXdude1023, I just don't see it happening anytime soon (although, you never know).

Yes, it certainly would be, but you are right.

Although DFW-HEL is larger than DFW-BER, its in no way large enough to have its own flight. At one time, when Nokia was booming, DFW-HEL was 34 passengers a day. Now, DFW-HEL is around 14 passengers a day. Still better than DFW-BER which is at 10.

DFW-HEL would be my dream come true! Finland is my favorite country worldwide. That all said, it isnt happening.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 19):
Yet again, I'd fall back on my defensive stance against AB vs. OneWorld and just kind of considering all-around longevity predictions.

I agree.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 19):
If this ever did happen, imagine what an embarrassment it would be to AA...

DFW-FRA has been a staple, but I dont know if it is what it once was. Military was always a big contriubtor to this flight and military traffic has fallen off a cliff.

legion242 · Wed Dec 05, 2012 5:26 pm

Not to derail the traffic conversation, but could someone tell me what the arrival times are for Qantas and Emirates? It's been years since I have been out to FP and I would like to go see these birds sometime soon.

IrishAyes · Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:10 pm

Quoting legion242 (Reply 21):

Not to derail the traffic conversation, but could someone tell me what the arrival times are for Qantas and Emirates? It's been years since I have been out to FP and I would like to go see these birds sometime soon.

Sure.

Emirates
EK 221 DXB 0245 DFW 0945 777 D 16h20m

EK 222 DFW 1150 DXB 12:20 +1 777 D 14h30m

Qantas
QF 7 SYD 1540 DFW 1345 744 D 15h5m

QF 8 DFW 2200 BNE 0615 +2 744 D 16h15m

QF 8 BNE 0745 SYD 1015 744 D 1h30m

legion242 · Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:27 pm

Thanks!!

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 22):

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 22):
Sure.

Emirates
EK 221 DXB 0245 DFW 0945 777 D 16h20m

EK 222 DFW 1150 DXB 12:20 +1 777 D 14h30m

Qantas
QF 7 SYD 1540 DFW 1345 744 D 15h5m

QF 8 DFW 2200 BNE 0615 +2 744 D 16h15m

QF 8 BNE 0745 SYD 1015 744 D 1h30m

gdg9 · Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:34 am

Well, if this topic is all things DFW... NK has moved up a few weeks the start of DFW-MSP and DFW-PHL, to April 4 from April 25. Hardly earth shattering news though!

commavia · Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:08 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
This is not as surprising. I wonder if DFW has room for another Middle Eastern carrier, such as EY or TK. However, I wouldn't expect it to happen for another few years if this is the case.

I think if DFW could support another Gulf carrier - and I think that's a definite if - it would be Qatar, due to the soon-to-be oneworld ties to AA.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
How is DFW-GIG doing. It is approaching its two year anniversary and the flight has stayed at 3x weekly.

It has gotten, and is getting, higher than 3x weekly frequency at peak times. I must admit that I was dubious about the prospects of DFW-GIG back before it started, but with the trajectory the Brazilian economy is on and considering that AA seems to go from strength to strength in Brazil, I would actually not be totally shocked to see this flight go daily at some point in the future.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 4):
DFW-PTY has been a disappointment. You would think that it being Panama, the flight could support more than it currently does.

I think realistically the best AA could hope for on DFW-PTY would be 3-4x weekly, and that would probably be with the A319.

I just flew PTY-DFW last month and the flight was quite full (at least 95%), but on a flight like that of course the yields are always the question.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
In Central American, I think a route to Honduras could be developed. The local market is not huge right now, but given the rate of immigration into the DFW area, it is something that can be developed.

I agree - ~3x weekly flights to SAP (with the A319) seem doable, as does a Saturday 737 to RTB.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
This is my thought as well. I cant see KE being daily, but 4x a week in addition to an AA daily is well within range. One thing that I have mentioned in past threads is that KE seems to be the airline of choice for Dallas' Asian ethnic communities. There is some money in that, but AA probably will take the lions share of the business traffic.

I do agree about DFW-HKG. Its another local market than can be developed and is already about 40 passengers a day. However, its going to be a 787 market. I cant see a 77W being deployed there.

As for DFW-NRT, my prediction is that it will become a daily 77W as opposed to two daily 777's. Japan traffic is in a downward slope right now though DFW-NRT is up from previous years in 2010.

I agree that the DFW-ICN market, while sizeable, probably cannot support 2x daily flights. Seeing as the market AA is most heavily catering to (U.S.-originating business traffic) is more frequency/schedule-sensitive than the market(s) KE is most heavily catering to (Korea-originating business traffic and U.S.-originating/beyond-ICN-Asia-bound VFR traffic), I think it's likely that KE would blink first on go back down to a more "reasonable" frequency level of 3-4x weekly flights.

Call me crazy, but I still continue to think DFW-HKG would work, makes sense, and should happen. I even think it could happen with a 77W, although I do agree it's probably more likely with a 787.

DFW-NRT I expect to stay at 2x daily flights. While it's true that the U.S.-Japan/NRT local market is certainly not growing as it once was, NRT is still a large and convenient connection point - both geographically and operationally - for many U.S.-Asia connections that AA simply cannot serve with its own metal. I personally suspect DFW-NRT is going to experience much the same phenomenon as DFW-LHR has post AA-BA ATI: a substantial stimulation in beyond-connecting traffic that is ultimately going to be able to continue to support 2x daily frequency.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
As for a US/AA merger I see DFW remaining as the largest hub in the system.

I think that is without question, and nobody would dispute that. DFW is, and will continue to be, the home, and largest and most important hub of, whatever airline American turns into, and regardless of whose running the show.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
It would be interesting to see if some interior markets that are served through DFW like CAE, CHS, TYS, etc would be kept linked to DFW or if those flights would be shifted through CLT. 50 seat jets are tough on long flights like these. Hopefully they would get a larger sized 70-90 seat aircraft to handle these kinda flights.

I have thought about that. I could see some shifting, but honestly not much. DFW offers east-west connectivity that CLT, because of its location and local market, simply never can. I agree that if a merger occurs we would see optimization where some of the Southeast markets would see connections shifted over CLT rather than DFW, but I still think the major Southeast markets like CAE, CHS, SAV, GSO, etc. would see at least 2x daily CR7/E70 each to DFW at an absolute minimum.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 7):
Im interested to see how the terminal remodeling is going. I was there in October and they are still working on the north side of A. Obviously it is going to be an extensive project since it will take a few years to complete and A, B, C and E are a bit dated but it will be nice to see the finished product. Supposedly its supposed to have the same feel as D, which is probably one of my favorite terminals outside DTW's Delta terminal.

From what I've seen so far from the few gate areas that have had work done, it's nice. It's hardly anything earth-shattering, and it is nothing compared to D, which I agree is one of the nicest airport terminals in the U.S. But, that being said, from what I've seen I would say that the remodeled A/B/C/E when finished will certainly be more than adequate and perfectly competitive with the vast majority of airport terminals I've flown through in the U.S.

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
Whenever I check the flights are running full. They should be, considering that it is AA's only flight to Germany, one of the world's largest and strongest economies. Surely Star has the upper hand in the German market, but FRA is a global financial center on the scale of NYC, LHR, and NRT. While it isn't a oneworld hub, any global carrier like AA should have reasonable service there. Maybe it doesn't work from ORD, but JFK or MAD?

I agree that 218 seats a day to the world's 4th largest economy does seem rather pathetic, although that's a function of being on the outside looking in on the dominant alliance in the market, and with hubs that aren't as well-positioned to capture local traffic or connections. That being said, I think a daily 757 JFK-FRA could work alongside the 767 DFW-FRA.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
Truth be told, Im a little uncertain about the future of DFW-FRA.

I doubt DFW-FRA is going anywhere. It may well stagnate at a single daily 767, but I don't see the flight being dropped altogether, as I think there is still sufficient local traffic, to say nothing of connections, to support it. Plus, again, it's AA's only flight to Germany, and frankly Germany is a market I think AA simply must serve in one way or another, and I just don't see where else AA could serve Germany from other than DFW besides, again, perhaps JFK (a la what happened with ZRH), but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

LAXdude1023 · Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:58 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
Call me crazy, but I still continue to think DFW-HKG would work, makes sense, and should happen. I even think it could happen with a 77W, although I do agree it's probably more likely with a 787.

Its a matter of managing connections. DFW-TPE is actually larger than DFW-HKG, but if a DFW-HKG flight could capture most of the market from DFW to HKG/TPE/BKK/SGN, thats 130 passengers right there. Filling the rest of a 787 should be no problem.

Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
I think if DFW could support another Gulf carrier - and I think that's a definite if - it would be Qatar, due to the soon-to-be oneworld ties to AA.

The numbers show that based of DFW originating and destined traffic, there is room for another Gulf Carrier. Could it be done at a profit? That Im unsure of. I keep hoping EK and AA will team up, but Im not holding my breath.

Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
Plus, again, it's AA's only flight to Germany, and frankly Germany is a market I think AA simply must serve in one way or another, and I just don't see where else AA could serve Germany from other than DFW besides

Yeah, but at this stage I wonder if its prestege more than anything. If things bounce back, it may be well worth it, right now its stagnant. If DFW-FRA gets back to the 100 PDEW mark, then two carriers is easy to do.

Quoting gdg9 (Reply 24):
Well, if this topic is all things DFW... NK has moved up a few weeks the start of DFW-MSP and DFW-PHL, to April 4 from April 25. Hardly earth shattering news though!

This is an excellent point. How much success is NK having in DFW and has it affected AA?

CIDFlyer · Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:57 am

How big does anyone think NK will get at DFW? Will it ever get to be a larger connecting hub like FLL is? Did I also hear the E satellitle terminal is going to remain open for good as well? Perhaps they could become the home to a NK hub.

ojas · Fri Dec 07, 2012 7:40 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):

Thanks for the interesting analysis of the markets out of DFW. As far as the Indian sub continent traffic is concerned, EK and future gulf carriers will heavily rely on it. Just have a look where all EK connect seamlessly both ways to DFW in the Subcontinent.

BOM, DEL, HYD, MAA, KHI, CCU, CCJ.

Effectively covering all the important business and leisure markets out of DFW (CCU and CCJ just happen to connect unintentionally). BLR, DAC connect in one direction only and AMD, COK, TRV, ISB, LHE, DAC do not connect at all. Having stayed in DFW for quite sometime, one can easily deduce the fact that most of the VFR traffic too is concentrated around the above mentioned cities only. Whether it can support another Gulf carrier? time till tell but QR will offer convenient connections to the entire Indian subcontinent if they land up at DFW, except CCJ (which is barely significant to the contribution of DFW)

I would be curious to know how the business and VFR traffic is split on DFW - India routes thus giving a clearer picture.

IrishAyes · Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:53 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
It has gotten, and is getting, higher than 3x weekly frequency at peak times.

E&E (explain and elaborate). How is DFWGIG able to expand beyond its current frequency allotment? And where have you seen proof of plans to extend this service to greater than 3 flights per week?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 26):
This is an excellent point. How much success is NK having in DFW and has it affected AA?

I'd say that it is had very good success, but not much impact on AA at all.

The really interesting thing about NK is that it has been bullish about expanding into top US Airports/regions (ORD, DFW, LAX, LAS) and more recently, DEN, ATL, IAH, AZA etc as opposed to its more traditional, leisure-oriented markets (ACY, MCO, MYR, FLL etc).

DFW has leapfrogged to become NK's #3 largest station (LAS only leads second place by a close margin, with FLL as the obvious #1) and with the new crew base opening up soon, I wouldn't doubt for a second NK has more plans for DFW and it will overtake the #2 position.

Has it been entirely successful? The answer to that question is not really. Noticeably, NK failed to gain long-term traction with DFW-BOS and DFW-TLC. Although both of these flights have only been suspended seasonally, it does reflect some degree of unmet expectations. In the DFWBOS case, JetBlue announced it would open up DFW as a new spoke from its BOS hub literally within 24 hours of NK's announcement earlier this year. B6 had all but avoided DFW all this time, even from its prominent JFK hub, which to me says a lot.

Truthfully, I'm not sure how B6 has felt with the performance of its DFW routes, but my guess would be that with higher frequency (3x flights per day as opposed to NK's sole 1), better timings, enhanced product offering for just a bit more, and relaxations on the "no-frills" model, I'd venture to say that it's not a surprise that NK was temporarily driven out.

As for DFWTLC, perhaps the re-entry of AM had something to do with this, I'm not really sure. It will be interesting to see how NK performs, long-term, on the new proposed DFW-SJD and DFW-CUN routes.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 27):
How big does anyone think NK will get at DFW? Will it ever get to be a larger connecting hub like FLL is? Did I also hear the E satellitle terminal is going to remain open for good as well? Perhaps they could become the home to a NK hub.

While it is unlikely that NK is drawing a large degree of corporate traffic in opening up new cities like DFW-MSP/PDX/OAK/SAN/AZA/MSP/BWI/PHL, my guess would be that NK is able to stimulate traffic to fill the flights to these cities by charging less than 25% below what the competition (namely AA) charge, and recoup via ancillary revenue charges to sustain desirable yield levels to continue the hub.

Given the growth metrics and sheer size of North Texas, without question, there is DEFINITELY room for a competing carrier in Dallas/Ft. Worth in addition to American, to operate routes such as DFW to PDX, OAK, SAN, TPA etc. given that AA had a monopoly on these sectors. Prior to NK's entry, however, it was virtually impossible for a legacy carrier, in fact even an LCC (read: AirTran's failed attempt at a DFW hub) to try and compete with AA on any of these segments and earn a profit. Only an airline with the nimble cost base that NK has can enter in and dodge AA in the process.

It's actually very Win-Win. I can see NK attempting a new DFW-CLT route, as well as DFW-MEM, possibly CVG. The first market is the only Top 10 largest US airport/region currently unserved by NK nonstop from DFW. The latter two reflect traditionally high-fare markets which, similar to PIT, have been all but abandoned by their former "hub" carrier tenants and left to sky-level pricing. NK may especially capitalize on the upcoming departure of DL on DAL-MEM.

The question is, will this stay the case year after next when the Wright Amendment goes away? The data points will paint a very interesting picture. While WN certainly has a lot of brand loyalty in Dallas and the advantage of Love Field's proximity to Downtown Dallas as well as many affluent North Dallas neighborhoods, NK definitely has an edge when it comes to cost of doing business. Another crazy idea could be that NK may seek to leverage its international push out of DFW (if the new Mexican markets perform well) to launch DFW-SAL, DFW-SAP or maybe even a Caribbean market. BUT....this is very, very distant thinking.

airDFW · Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:57 pm

Nice to see all these AAnalysis but what about China connections?

If AA is going to start any PVG or TPE etc would it not meet the same fate as ORD-DEL? Would it make sense to link to AY's HEL because they are developing China connections nicely whereas BA is lagging?

May AA-BA should get AY into their J.V.? And have BA/AY set HEL as North Asia or Asia connection perhaps? In that case wouldn't BA/IB/AY has like 3 hubs with much less of backtracking for Europe bound passengers?

My

commavia · Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:03 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 29):
How is DFWGIG able to expand beyond its current frequency allotment?

There will be more and more frequencies available in the U.S.-Brazil market in the coming years, leading up to full Open Skies in a few years as well. In addition, if the market continues to grow and develop, and if Rio continues to grow as both a leisure and business destination, I do think it's possible that flight could go daily year-round at some point in the future.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 29):
And where have you seen proof of plans to extend this service to greater than 3 flights per week?

It's currently scheduled to go daily in just a few weeks for the peak period around Christmas.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 29):
I'd say that it is had very good success, but not much impact on AA at all.

Agreed.

IrishAyes · Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:33 pm

Quoting ojas (Reply 28):
LR, DAC connect in one direction only and AMD, COK, TRV, ISB, LHE, DAC do not connect at all.

How much of the DFW-SE Asia traffic is headed to any of those cities? Even with a reasonable volume of PAX going in either direction, somehow I doubt much of it is high-yielding.

Quoting ojas (Reply 28):
Whether it can support another Gulf carrier? time till tell but QR will offer convenient connections to the entire Indian subcontinent if they land up at DFW, except CCJ (which is barely significant to the contribution of DFW)

Certainly. And AA and QR will definitely benefit from the alliance benefits, an advantage EK does not have (yet). AFAIK, all the hype from the EK+AA presumed "discussions" have all but gone cold.

Quoting airdfw (Reply 30):
If AA is going to start any PVG or TPE etc would it not meet the same fate as ORD-DEL? Would it make sense to link to AY's HEL because they are developing China connections nicely whereas BA is lagging?

We'll see AA and/or CX launch DFW-HKG more likely before anything else. Truthfully, I may be in the minority on this one, but I think that what really drove the dAAgger into ORD-DEL was not so much the viability of the ORD-DEL market in and of itself, but the competitive landscape plus the aircraft used on this route. For starters, it was WAY too premium heavy with the number of F seats on the AA 777 pre-reconfiguration plans. Even though AA seemed to price out higher than the rest of the competition for average fares on this sector, revenues weren't high enough to sustain the route. Without question, an ULH flight such as this one is very high-CASM.

However, the real nail in the coffin was the launch of AI ORDDEL nonstop in addition to AA. Whether or not the market can support two carriers, I'm not sure, but without question AI has lower operating cost (among its MANY operating problems) and government-backing, which ipso facto put AA in a terrible competitive position. I'm convinced this was more so the case than the reason I just stated above, simply because AA held onto the route for so long (6 + years) despite a deteriorating economy.

DFW-TPE/PVG will not be exposed to the same market conditions, but may be unsustainable for other unique reasons. Although, I personally think a DFW-PEK flight is possible.

Quoting airdfw (Reply 30):
May AA-BA should get AY into their J.V.? And have BA/AY set HEL as North Asia or Asia connection perhaps? In that case wouldn't BA/IB/AY has like 3 hubs with much less of backtracking for Europe bound passengers?

That could be a wise idea, especially since IB is a total disaster right now. However, what I could see working against this is that AY doesn't serve more than 1 (two if you count the seasonal YYZ) North American desinations, which basically means that its a minor contributor to the table. I'm not sure IAG nor AA would be too pleased with AY walking away with a disproportionately high amount of the revenue in relation to the small input it would give with operations flown on its own metal. Plus, demand from the US to HEL is highly seasonal.

In addition, for the sake of gaining access to the proliferating HEL-Asia network, that works well for Europe, but is significant backtracking for the US/Cornerstone AA hubs. JFK-HEL is relatively short at 4117 NM, but ORD-HEL is 4436 mi, MIA-HEL is 5183 mi, DFW-HEL is 5224 mi, and LAX-HEL is 5614 mi. Totally not worth bypassing NRT, etc. for this. Perhaps, in that same vein, ATI between IAG/AY/JL make more sense for this purpose, but North America is pretty much out of scope as any sort of beneficiary here.

Quoting commavia (Reply 31):
It's currently scheduled to go daily in just a few weeks for the peak period around Christmas.

Ahhh yes I did remember reading this a few months ago, thank you for the reminder.

LAXdude1023 · Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:50 pm

Quoting airdfw (Reply 30):
Nice to see all these AAnalysis but what about China connections?

I dont think putting a plane on DFW-PEK/PVG is a great idea. The market could mature, but right now the numbers really arent there. DFW-TPE and DFW-HKG are both larger than DFW-PEK or DFW-PVG. Truth be told, the real market from Texas to Mainland China is in the Houston area. DFW-TPE and DFW-HKG are larger than Houston to the same cities, but IAH-China is a lot larger than DFW-China. DFW-PEK is only 26 passengers and DFW-PVG is only 33 passengers. DFW-TPE is 42 passengers and DFW-HKG is 40.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 29):
As for DFWTLC, perhaps the re-entry of AM had something to do with this, I'm not really sure. It will be interesting to see how NK performs, long-term, on the new proposed DFW-SJD and DFW-CUN routes.

I think the entrance of AM is a reason for this. AM is much more respected and sought after. As I mentioned, over 50% of the DFW-MEX market comes from Mexico City not Dallas. There was a need for AM to come back. There really isnt much of a need for NK to be in the DFW-Mexico City market (yes its technically TLC, but its a similar cachment area).

Quoting ojas (Reply 28):
I would be curious to know how the business and VFR traffic is split on DFW - India routes thus giving a clearer picture.

It depends on the destination. DFW-BLR/HYD/BOM is going to have a higher business travel component. DFW-DEL/CCU/AMD/MAA are going to be more VFR oriented. There are a large number of Gujratis in the Dallas area and there is not as much tech work there.

India is the rising star for the DFW market. DFW-India is growing faster than IAH/ATL-India and as of last year is larger than both. Not to mention the Indian community in DFW is growing much faster than either of those two.

The Dallas area (especially Irving and Plano) is quickly becoming the favorite for new Indian immigrants in the Southern US.

IrishAyes · Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 33):
but IAH-China is a lot larger than DFW-China. DFW-PEK is only 26 passengers and DFW-PVG is only 33 passengers. DFW-TPE is 42 passengers and DFW-HKG is 40.

Yet despite this, I would be really surprised if IAH gets a nonstop link to China anytime soon. I don't see it happening on a Chinese carrier, and I also don't see UA entering in this space, either. At most, I'd expect to see OZ come in for ICN-IAH.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 33):
I think the entrance of AM is a reason for this. AM is much more respected and sought after. As I mentioned, over 50% of the DFW-MEX market comes from Mexico City not Dallas. There was a need for AM to come back. There really isnt much of a need for NK to be in the DFW-Mexico City market (yes its technically TLC, but its a similar cachment area).

Yup. I wonder how NK performed on DFWTLC from a Mexican point of sale. They've maintained their FLL flights. But interesting evolution nevertheless.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
Having talked with a person inside with KL, they are pretty much at their wits end trying to make DFW profitable. They seem to only be getting tourist traffic and connections to India and Africa. They are getting almost no business traffic. Another thing of note is that the DFW-AMS local O&D has been stimulated very little by the nonstop flight. The current local O&D is only 30 passengers per day.

Well, we do know know that KL is back on for S13. It was announced earlier this month that they are moving back the start date by a few weeks to early May from Mid April. If the schedule is like this past year, the flight will run through October at 5x weekly. Not amazing by any means, but not shabby, either.

notdownnlocked · Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:01 am

What are the chances that Cayman will return?

airDFW · Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:25 pm

One thing is missing about Australia's figures or I missed in the discussion? It still a mystery for me how DFW-SYD is working for QF.

IrishAyes · Sat Dec 15, 2012 11:54 pm

Quoting airdfw (Reply 36):
One thing is missing about Australia's figures or I missed in the discussion? It still a mystery for me how DFW-SYD is working for QF.

Yeah, some hard data on that flight would be nice to see, as well as the EK flight.

The flight sounded like a good idea on paper, but I think it actually has proved itself in implementation, simply given that QF increased the frequency to daily roughly a year after it went live, and Qantas has undergone dramatic network transformations since May 2011, and DFW has not been mentioned once as a target candidate for potential reductions/removal. That says a lot.

My guess is that the power of the AA hub, combined with the ease of transferring at DFW relative to other hubs, has been key success factors to drive the performance of this flight.

gdg9 · Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 27):
Did I also hear the E satellitle terminal is going to remain open for good as well?

Well it will have to be closed at some point and remodeled. It was opened to accommodate NK while other parts of Terminal E are being renovated. I was surprised to walk through the Satellite and see it was still a dump - I thought maybe DFW would renovate it before opening but no, still dark, musty, old carpets etc.

mhkansan · Sun Dec 16, 2012 2:49 pm

Quoting gdg9 (Reply 38):
Well it will have to be closed at some point and remodeled. It was opened to accommodate NK while other parts of Terminal E are being renovated. I was surprised to walk through the Satellite and see it was still a dump - I thought maybe DFW would renovate it before opening but no, still dark, musty, old carpets etc.

It's been remodeled. I wandered over there on a recent passing via DFW and it seems NK has set up a nice little focus city over there. There are lots of empty gates, the idea is to move airlines to the satellite temporarily while the gates in the regular E terminal are reconfigured. However, there are dining a shopping options there and the facility seems compatible and new compared with the rest of DFW, I think the space is needed and will stick around.

Eagle really needs more gates at DFW and fast!! Don't know where to put them.

LAXdude1023 · Mon Dec 17, 2012 4:33 pm

AA is starting DFW-BOG in 2013:

http://aa.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=3609

jmw99ttu · Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:29 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 40):
AA is starting DFW-BOG in 2013:

Any guess as to which equipment will operate the route? A319 or 738?

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