US Airways Makes Formal Merger Offer For AA

usairways85 · Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:24 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 206):
Ok. so if (when) this merger goes through, for major US Airlines (meaning airlines with widebody aircraft) that leaves us with:AAUADL

Pretty crazy when you think ~15 years ago it was
UA
US
NW
CO
TW
AA
DL
HP

iFlyLOTs · Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:41 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 206):
Ok. so if (when) this merger goes through, for major US Airlines (meaning airlines with widebody aircraft) that leaves us with: AA UA DL

HA as well. They seem to fit that criteria.

rj777 · Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:59 pm

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 208):
UA DL

HA as well. They seem to fit that criteria

Still....... only 4. The government is going to have a hard time OK'ing this one.

ckfred · Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:04 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 170):
Yes, but since no body cares what you think , it's irrelevant . At the the end of the day , these airlines are going to do what they want . The creditors will make their decision soon . Some of you will like it , some of you won't .

But, the unions talk about how current and past AA management have run AA into the ground. Yet, they want to merge with another carrier, who many feel is also poorly run.

l

Quoting EricR (Reply 173):
Before looking at a Zagat poll and automatically drawing a conclusion based on their poll, I would recommend looking at the criteria they used to come up with their list of best / worst airlines.

Most polls such as these look at fluff items, but pay little attention to the main items which are getting from point A to point B in a safe & timely manner.

Look at the latest air travel consumer report published monthly by the DOT. Have you seen AA's stats compared to US on things such as lost baggage, on time arrival, consumer complaints? Granted AA's stats are skewed due to labor issues, but they were never ranked high even before the labor issues this year.

Based on these stats, AA looks like it should be on that Zagat list. I am not an AA hater, but they have a lot issues they need to address.

A friend of mine worked for US, at the time that it bought Piedmont. People went ballistic, because Piedmont used to give the whole can of pop during beverage service. After the merger, F/As poured a drink, then kept the can to pour the next drink, per US procedures.

It was only after a major letter-writing campaign (and presumably seeing some loyal Piedmont flyers switching to other carrers) that US started to follow the Piedmont practice.

And, I've been hearing for decades how people would avoid Allegheny, US's predecessor, like the plague, because service was so bad.

The history of US just doesn't compare to that of AA.

And I've said this before, too. The unions at AA have hated the last three CEOs. They also hated Bob Crandall, but they understood that he was smarter than every other CEO in the airline business and was making AA the dominant carrier in the Caribbean and Latin America, and was growing everywhere else.

Considering that Parker got his start in the AA culture, why think that he will be better than Carty, Arpey, and Horton. I could see the unions gravitating towards Parker, if he had learned under Gordon Bethune or Herb Kelleher.

And frankly, US has some serious labor problems. Why get into the middle of that. There has been some bad blood at AA, over the merger with TWA. Does AA unions think that US's unions will welcome them with open arms and simply let them call the shots?

seabosdca · Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:31 pm

Quoting rj777 (Reply 206):
for major US Airlines (meaning airlines with widebody aircraft)

Poor definition. It's just not reasonable to say WN is not a major airline. It's even getting unreasonable to say WN is not a legacy, given how its costs have climbed as it has aged.

I'd say after a US/AA merger the following US airlines would count as "major," judging by revenue and fleet size:

UA
DL
AA
WN
B6
AS

micstatic · Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:41 pm

Quoting nwcoflyer (Reply 204):
Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 203):
You're right, they're the worst.

Yes they are horrible. US runs one of the best A:14's of the network carriers, have one of the lowest MBR's, one of the youngest fleets and has been consistently profitable as of late. They are THE WORST!

On a domestic basis, I prefer US Airways to American.

dank · Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:52 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 211):
It's even getting unreasonable to say WN is not a legacy, given how its costs have climbed as it has aged.

How's it unreasonable? They never served interstate flights under regulation. Now, it may be getting unreasonable to say that they don't have some of the same financial issues that the legacies do. I agree completely that it is unreasonable to not call them a "major" airline. But legacy has very specific definition.

incitatus · Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:13 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 211):
I'd say after a US/AA merger the following US airlines would count as "major," judging by revenue and fleet size:

UA
DL
AA
WN
B6
AS

There is no reason to think that in the medium term this would be it. We might see a surge in capacity from Spirit and/or Virgin. Also if there are enough qualified people out there willing to work for less, investment bankers will be salivating at the prospect of creating yet another well-funded startup that will pull the rug out of the established carriers.

silentbob · Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:31 am

Quoting dank (Reply 213):
But legacy has very specific definition.

Definitions change over the years.

commavia · Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:38 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 210):
Does AA unions think that US's unions will welcome them with open arms and simply let them call the shots?

I suspect the AA unions' expectation is that the US unions will be largely a non-issue if the AA employees outnumber the US employees 2-to-1 in most work groups and simply vote for the AA unions in representation elections. As such, the expectation of AA's unions - and US management - is that most of the US union integration "issues" will simply melt away with a merger. And I think the US unions know it, which is why they have been supportive, but generally far more tentative and cautious, about this merger. Kirby essentially said it point blank: "It’s ironic but the solution to [the US pilot integration] issue at US Airways I think it’s probably because we’re able to get [the AA merger] deal done."

gigneil · Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:39 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 210):
Yet, they want to merge with another carrier, who many feel is also poorly run.

I dont know anyone that feels that. US is one of the best run airlines in the world.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 206):
Ok. so if (when) this merger goes through, for major US Airlines (meaning airlines with widebody aircraft) that leaves us with:

Major US airline is defined by the DOT as an airline with revenues of $1b or greater.

NS

aaexecplat · Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:44 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 210):
Does AA unions think that US's unions will welcome them with open arms and simply let them call the shots?

There is the possibility that they think exactly that. Given how tone deaf they have been all along, one can't rule out this possibility. Otherwise, there's the possibility that they simply don't care about the US pilots because they know that they and their union will dwarf the US unions in numbers, therefore subjugating them.

Sounds like a lovely group of people, doesn't it?

dank · Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:30 am

Quoting silentbob (Reply 215):
Quoting dank (Reply 213):
But legacy has very specific definition.

Definitions change over the years.

I don't see how this one does. It is defined by the fact that these airlines were legacies from the era of regulation. Just because an airline like southwest doesn't have the same advantages it did vs. the legacy carriers doesn't make it a legacy carrier. Simply comparing legacy vs. non-legacy carriers doesn't have the same value that it used to.

Cubsrule · Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:24 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 217):
I dont know anyone that feels that. US is one of the best run airlines in the world.

I agree with that, but they are well run in a different niche within the airline industry than AA. I wouldn't necessarily expect Hyundai management to do a good job running BMW even though Hyundai is well run and both make cars. FR management might not do a good job running BA even though FR is well run. The contrast between AA and US isn't that stark, but the gap is there.

[Edited 2012-12-12 05:56:31]

commavia · Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:42 pm

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 207):
Pretty crazy when you think ~15 years ago it was
UA
US
NW
CO
TW
AA
DL
HP

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 211):
I'd say after a US/AA merger the following US airlines would count as "major," judging by revenue and fleet size:

UA
DL
AA
WN
B6
AS

The change is amazing, but it was natural and ultimate it has been, and will continue to be, good for the industry. If a merger does occur, we will essentially be down to four big mega-airlines in the U.S., all with dispersed, geographically diverse, multi-hub domestic networks: AA, Delta, United and Southwest. That sounds about right.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 220):
I agree with that, but they are well run in a different niche within the airline industry than AA. I wouldn't necessarily expect Hyundai management to do a good job running BMW even though Hyundai is well run and both make cares. FR management might not do a good job running BA even though FR is well run. The contrast between AA and US isn't that stark, but the gap is there.

Again - there are areas where both can learn from the other. USAirways obviously has done a good job of running a generally strong operation, and relentlessly focusing on cost containment. On the flip side, AA's product and service offering is - in many areas - superior to USAirways', its website and IT infrastructure is definitely better, and its branding and marketing is better, too, and still improving (though not yet as good as Delta's). As I have said - I just hope and pray that if AA and USAirways merge, and if Parker gets control, he takes the best of both airlines rather than trying to impose his current airline's way onto the larger, older, acquisition (which is what it appears largely happened with his last merger).

Cubsrule · Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:57 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 221):
USAirways obviously has done a good job of running a generally strong operation, and relentlessly focusing on cost containment.

I'm not convinced that US has done anything good with cost containment that AA hasn't done or won't do on its own in bankruptcy. What are you thinking of?

777STL · Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:04 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 211):
Poor definition. It's just not reasonable to say WN is not a major airline. It's even getting unreasonable to say WN is not a legacy, given how its costs have climbed as it has aged.

I'd say after a US/AA merger the following US airlines would count as "major," judging by revenue and fleet size:

UA
DL
AA
WN
B6
AS

I completely agree. How many aircraft does WN have? 7xx? I'd have a hard time *not* considering that to be a major airline. Likewise for B6 and AS, and in some respects, I'd even throw HA in there as well given their rapid expansion of late.

SPREE34 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:24 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 218):
there's the possibility that they simply don't care about the US pilots because they know that they and their union will dwarf the US unions in numbers, therefore subjugating them.

Sort of ironic, at least in the case of USAPA, wouldn't you say?

silentbob · Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:04 pm

Quoting SPREE34 (Reply 224):
Sort of ironic, at least in the case of USAPA, wouldn't you say?

I call it Karma. It would be even more appropriate if they use a three list solution and the West guys move farther up the list than they would have with the original integration.

iFlyLOTs · Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:19 am

Okay, so if this merger happens, what would the fleet look like and where would it all be utilized?

gigneil · Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:24 am

I can say for sure nobody knows

I bet they have some Airbus planes....

NS

seabosdca · Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:40 am

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 226):
what would the fleet look like

That seems obvious, with one exception. Rapidly disappearing MD-80s, huge fleets of A319/A320/A321 and 738, 757 sticking around for some niche markets, 763ER, A330 (-200 & -300), and 777 (-200ER & -300ER).

The question is what the next widebody step would be. They have orders for two closely overlapping types (A350-800 and 787-9). My guess is you would see all the A350s converted to -900 or -1000 and probably deferred a bit for when the 777-200ERs need replacing, with the 787s aggressively delivered to replace retired 762ER capacity and the oldest 763ERs.

etops1 · Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:16 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 228):

Don't forget the E190's .

ckfred · Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:24 pm

Quoting gigneil (Reply 217):
Quoting ckfred (Reply 210):Yet, they want to merge with another carrier, who many feel is also poorly run.
I dont know anyone that feels that. US is one of the best run airlines in the world.

I was just looking at a financial website, pointing out that the smaller carriers, such as Frontier and Jet Blue, get far better marks for customer service than AA, UA, and DL. Yet, in reading postings, it seems that a lot of people avoid US at all costs, because both F/As and CSAs are some of the rudest in the industry.

Considering that many airline industry observers feel that AA has taken some hits since filing Chapter 11, because the unions have been "less than happy" with AA management, does merging the employees of AA with US make sense.

I know AA employees who despised Crandall, although they now see how good he was, and they haven't been happy with Carty, Arpey, and Horton. I get the feeling that no one at US is all that happy with Parker. So, is everyone going to have some sort of epiphany and decide that the combine AA/US will be one big happy family, competing effectively with UA, DL, WN, and B6?

d93 · Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:33 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 13):

Exactly. USAir's stock is trading at double what it's worth based on merger rumors. The shareholders will take a bath on this deal as it's currently constructed. I can't see a merger happening until AMR is out of BK. Once they leave BK they can have US at a discount, if they want it.

seabosdca · Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:47 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 230):
I was just looking at a financial website, pointing out that the smaller carriers, such as Frontier and Jet Blue, get far better marks for customer service than AA, UA, and DL. Yet, in reading postings, it seems that a lot of people avoid US at all costs, because both F/As and CSAs are some of the rudest in the industry.

I keep seeing comments like this and it just doesn't square with my experience, *except* if we are talking about ground staff at PHL.

I've found everyone else at US - F/As, telephone staff, and ground staff at DCA, CLT, and PHX - to be above average for the industry. This has been consistent over many flights during the 8 years I lived on the East Coast, during which time almost all the flights I took that weren't transcons were on US. They used to have very tired aircraft interiors, but that has markedly improved as well, except for the few remaining 737 Classics. At this point, I trust US's customer service a lot more than that of UA or AA.

phxa340 · Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:06 pm

Quoting d93 (Reply 231):

Welcome to my RR list. Less than 5 remembers on here are actually talking about the financials of this merger. US shareholders would be extremely upset if AMR made them do the 80/20 split versus 70/30. Don't fear the AMR creditors , it's the US ones that would veto this merger if current negotiations don't get them more equity in the newly formed company.

milemaster · Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:11 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 232):
I've found everyone else at US - F/As, telephone staff, and ground staff at DCA, CLT, and PHX - to be above average for the industry. This has been consistent over many flights during the 8 years I lived on the East Coast, during which time almost all the flights I took that weren't transcons were on US. They used to have very tired aircraft interiors, but that has markedly improved as well, except for the few remaining 737 Classics. At this point, I trust US's customer service a lot more than that of UA or AA.

My personal experience with US staff has been typically a positive one, especially during irregular ops. The domestic in-flight product is not great but it's passable, especially on the E-Jets. I do find the tray table advertisement and constant credit card pimping annoying.

BarryH · Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 233):
Less than 5 remembers on here are actually talking about the financials of this merger.

And, ironically, that's all that matters. Assigning a value to AA that US shareholders think is equitable and putting a value on US that AA stakeholders feel is equitable isn't as easy as it sounds. That's one potential area that could cause the merger to be scuttled (for now) and there's nothing Parker can do about it; he works for the Board who works for/with the shareholders.

Everyone's also been taking the invitation to the table that was offered to US' pilots as a positive sign. Has anyone thought that in a complex game of chess that by involving the US pilots that a lack of support from them leading to nothing resembling an agreement could play in to Horton's hand of going it alone? If by some miracle the US unions and AA’s do reach an agreement that makes going through with the merger now attractive even if the timing’s not ideal. I’d guess there’s less than a 20% chance that the three pilot’s unions, all with conflicting interests, are going to get anywhere near an agreement framework in the 60-90 days it'll take AA to get out of bankruptcy that would make a merger in bankruptcy palatable. And any discussions with the pilots via the bankruptcy court are out of Parker's hands so his vague promises and telling people exactly what they want to hear aren't part of any discussions. Bringing in US’ pilots resulting in a failed outcome allows Horton to say, “see, I tried.” At this point in the process both Parker and Horton are nothing more than chauffeurs driving someone else’s car to the destination their instructed.

HPRamper · Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:28 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 230):
I get the feeling that no one at US is all that happy with Parker. So, is everyone going to have some sort of epiphany and decide that the combine AA/US will be one big happy family, competing effectively with UA, DL, WN, and B6?

I would say most US employees have quite neutral feelings toward Parker. Most, if any, animosity within US is between equivalent work groups.

D L X · Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:17 pm

Quoting d93 (Reply 231):
USAir's stock is trading at double what it's worth based on merger rumors.

Actually, US Airways' stock has risen because its earnings have skyrocketed.

Consider this: US's stock trades at 3.6 times earnings. Delta, on the other hand, trades at over 6 times earning. Which one is overvalued?

EricR · Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:54 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 237):
US's stock trades at 3.6 times earnings. Delta, on the other hand, trades at over 6 times earning. Which one is overvalued?

Neither one when you consider that the S&P 500 trades at about 15 times earnings. However, DL's PE premium over US is warranted. DL is positioned much better than US. This is not to say that US is poorly positioned per se, but that DL is positioned much better than US across many areas including robust network, alliance partners, opportunities for growth, etc.

A higher PE does not necessarily mean a company is overvalued. It could also mean that Wall Street believes that a company's future prospects (earnings growth) are higher and therefore places a greater value on that company.

[Edited 2012-12-18 07:05:16]

D L X · Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:13 pm

Quoting EricR (Reply 238):
Neither one when you consider that the S&P 500 trades at about 15 times earnings.

The S&P includes a lot of tech companies, which trade for well over the P/E ratios of non-tech companies. I don't think that's a fair comparison. Apples to apples would be comparing airlines' stock to each other.

As for whether DL is well positioned, as an airline, I'd agree, except there's not a whole lot of opportunity for growth when you're already at the top. Stock price is based on how much money a company makes, not where its hubs are, not what alliance it's in.

eaglepower83 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:17 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 201):
There is simply no way in hell that US is the 5th worst major airline in the world.

I would agree.
With my last minute travel to SJU from BDL last week, my US experience was rather positive.
We were late leaving BDL due to arrival "buffeting" at PHL....but we had so many connections on our flight we were able to get the company to give us priority.
We had a tight 45min. connection in PHL, yet, my coworker and I BOTH got our luggage in SJU!
I was amazed, because if this was UAL..........that never would've happened. (UA has never connected luggage for me successfully with connections under 60min)

The in-flight service is quite basic yet friendly, despite all the FAs having big yellow STRIKE stickers on their bags.
The food I bought was good, and not gross. Service was attentive. The pilot was charismatic.
The only negative thought I had was when the PILOT was hawking the credit card.
Horribly tacky IMO.
Otherwise....US is my backup when AA is weak in the New England area.
I wouldn't "mind" a merger, but I hope they do things the AA way if/when they merge.

etops1 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:34 pm

It was def not the Pilot making the announcement about the credit card . It was most likely a male FA .

eaglepower83 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:05 pm

Quoting etops1 (Reply 241):

Unless I dozed off for 2 seconds, the CC msg was immediately followed after "this is the captain" and some aeronautical information, by the same voice.
I HAVE seen "Vantage Point" so I could be wrong....but I hope it was NOT the pilot.

phxa340 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:50 pm

[quote=D L X,reply=237][/

They are entirely way more leveraged than DL. Outstanding debt for US is still relatively high compared to its peers. Also take into account the FV of both companies. AA DL and UA all have tremendous growth opportunity because of their fleet network size etc. US can grow - just not as easily as the others. Stock price for US has gone up as much as it has because of the merger news - plain and simple. If it has risen on its own financial merits , AA creditors wouldn't be demanding a 80-20 ownership split but instead would probably be ok with the 70/30 proposed by US.

BarryH · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:22 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 237):
Actually, US Airways' stock has risen because its earnings have skyrocketed.

Their earnings have skyrocketed because of artificially low labor costs due to the unions not being able to get their act together to get an industry-standard pay scale. Any modeling of US' value in a combination will be adjusted for that and will depress its value greatly. I'm sure the US shareholders have the same view you do; "we're doing great." I'm also sure the AA stakeholders are looking at a model of US' results over the past few years with labor adjusted to market rates and saying "yeah, sure."

D L X · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:56 pm

Quoting BarryH (Reply 244):
Their earnings have skyrocketed because of artificially low labor costs due to the unions not being able to get their act together to get an industry-standard pay scale.

1) I don't know if that's true or not. Do you have a source showing that US workers get paid less than their counterparts at DAL or UA?

2) That really isn't relevant to the discussion of whether US's stock is overvalued or undervalued. Yes, of course, if you change the underlying fundamentals, the value of the stock changes. That's like saying, if US Airways were turned into a tech company, the stock value would change.

silentbob · Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting D L X (Reply 239):
Stock price is based on how much money a company makes, not where its hubs are, not what alliance it's in.

Stock prices are not based on rational numbers anymore. Look at what has happened to apple in the last year or so for definitive proof of that.

Quoting D L X (Reply 245):
1) I don't know if that's true or not. Do you have a source showing that US workers get paid less than their counterparts at DAL or UA?

2) That really isn't relevant to the discussion of whether US's stock is overvalued or undervalued. Yes, of course, if you change the underlying fundamentals, the value of the stock changes. That's like saying, if US Airways were turned into a tech company, the stock value would change.

1. yes it is true and is easily available via your preferred search engine.
2. Knowing that salaries are going to rise without any way to increase revenues equally would prevent most people from viewing US as favorably.

AAplat4life · Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:25 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 221):
As I have said - I just hope and pray that if AA and USAirways merge, and if Parker gets control, he takes the best of both airlines rather than trying to impose his current airline's way onto the larger, older, acquisition (which is what it appears largely happened with his last merger).

I think that, if Parker gets control, a lot of the AA management team below the executive level would stay. AA has a lot more going on that US--planning for new aircraft, international routes, cabin upgrades and others-- and it would be too disruptive to put in the US management team en masse.

That said, another possible scenario to consider is that the Board goes with neither Horton nor Parker. There were reports recently some creditors have spoken to the pilots about replacing management if AMR emerges as a stand alone entity. Also, it does not seem likely that Horton would lead a combined AA/US. Whether Parker is the person to do it or another person outside of either organization is a fair question.

AAIL86 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:47 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 236):
I would say most US employees have quite neutral feelings toward Parker. Most, if any, animosity within US is between equivalent work groups.

Interesting. Would it be fair to say that AA employees like him more then US employees at the moment?

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