Virgin Atlantic Expansion Speculation

VCy · Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:37 pm

VS will start receiving its first 787's in 2014, kind of a year from now, followed by the a380 a year later. They have just finished (i think) receiving their a330s and also received rights for some short-haul destinations. What should we expect from VS in the short run? Which are the likely short-haul destinations? Also, with the new aircraft arriving which are the likely destinations? How about SIN, PEK, GIG, MEL, HNL, BKK, HKT, even MLE maybe?

boysteve · Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:45 pm

From your list I would suggest that GIG would be top subject to bilaterals obviously. HNL is a wish stated before by VS but would it best suited as an LHR or LGW based aircraft? One city not on your list for the B789 is PER.

VCy · Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:50 pm

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 1):
One city not on your list for the B789 is PER.

Definitely! I believe that UK carriers can expand in Australia. They currently only serve SYD, leaving MEL, PER, ADL & BNE to other carriers like EK, SQ etc
I know that Qantas serves MEL from LHR, but i m sure VS can operate the route as well.

bastew · Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:58 pm

I reckon the european carriers are pretty much leaving the Europe - Australia routes to the middle east carriers as well as the far east ones.

I would be really suprised to see another Australian city announced.

migair54 · Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:21 pm

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 1):
One city not on your list for the B789 is PER.

i don´t see it ever happening, too difficult to make money is such a route.

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
SIN

Very unlikely, so many daily already.

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
PEK, GIG

that´s my two guess... now that they didn´t win the rights for Moscow. Maybe we can add GRU to the list as well.

[Edited 2012-12-08 13:22:24]

mal787 · Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:22 pm

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
followed by the a380 a year later

Are they still taking these?
I was under the impression that these had gone by the wayside.

Mal787

LJ · Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
What should we expect from VS in the short run?

Nothing. Until it becomes clear what will happen to VS in the long run (alliance / ownership wise) I don't think they'll going to expand (where would the get the slots from?

VCy · Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:58 pm

Quoting bastew (Reply 3):
I would be really suprised to see another Australian city announced.

That's a shame really... Would of been great to see British carriers expanding in Australia.

Quoting migair54 (Reply 4):
Maybe we can add GRU to the list as well.

Yes! GRU seems to be very popular from London. I mentioned GIG because for some reason i consider VS to be targeting more leisure routes than business routes. Of course many of them combine both

Quoting LJ (Reply 6):
Until it becomes clear what will happen to VS in the long run (alliance / ownership wise)

Fingers crossed for SkyTeam!! VS would be a great addition to the alliance. I think it would get lost in Star Alliance, whereas in SkyTeam it would be more powerful (in my opinion).

Viscount724 · Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:08 pm

Quoting mal787 (Reply 5):
Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
followed by the a380 a year later

Are they still taking these?
I was under the impression that these had gone by the wayside.

Recent article on VS A380 plans. Not before 2017 and even then there's no certainly they'll operate the type.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...nomy-and-oil-price-ridgway-378103/

justinlee · Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:36 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 4):

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
PEK, GIG

that´s my two guess... now that they didn´t win the rights for Moscow. Maybe we can add GRU to the list as well.

PEK-LHR route is really underserved. Compared to PEK-FRA and PEK-CDG that have 3xDaily, PEK-LHR is only 2xDaily. BA is really conservitave on expanding in China Mainland. They are in lack of partners because of the absence of OW in China Mainland.

rutankrd · Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:06 pm

Quoting VCy (Thread starter):
VS will start receiving its first 787's in 2014, kind of a year from now, followed by the a380 a year later. They have just finished (i think) receiving their a330s and also received rights for some short-haul destinations. What should we expect from VS in the short run? Which are the likely short-haul destinations? Also, with the new aircraft arriving which are the likely destinations? How about SIN, PEK, GIG, MEL, HNL, BKK, HKT, even MLE maybe?

Give up already the 787s will replace the remaining 340s on the existing networks and you're a year out -It will 2015 before any start to enter service with deliveries over a number of years so expect little if any new routes.

fcogafa · Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:07 pm

Many of the B787s are supposed to be A340 replacements so it is unlikely that there will be many new routes for some time, unless Delta change things of course...

steve6666 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:14 am

If they really had the capital to fly to Phuket, Honolulu and Male - and thought those routes would be profitable - then they would have done it from LGW already.

GRU and GIG - when LATAM is confirmed in OneWorld, they would get absolutely murdered by the combination of IAG and LATAM.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 10):
Give up already the 787s will replace the remaining 340s on the existing networks and you're a year out -It will 2015 before any start to enter service with deliveries over a number of years so expect little if any new routes.

Exactly. And a number of the A346s have been withdrawn as the A333s have been received (see the VS source) so the A333s do not represent a net increase of 8 airframes. If someone could work out what the fleet will look like in 2017 compared to today then start the speculation.

skipness1E · Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:24 am

To be clear, Virgin's traffic has fallen in recent years and the new LHR-YVR (why not back to YYZ ??) hardly set the heather alight. Growth has stalled and they are rightly trying to prevent further slippage by investing in a revamped beach fleet and new more efficient A330s to replace four engined A346s. Quite why they need the B787 at all is not clear and frankly the A380 isn't going to happen.
The Airliners.net Magic Dartboard of Route Planning needs to be retired for a few years.

Indeed we've seen PHC, KIN, NAS and SJU come and go at LGW with MRU and NBO come an go at LHR. They can't manage to fill ORD year round and YVR was a bit of risk up against STAR's Air Canada as the home team and BA who've been there for years. They've run out of BA routes they can cherry pick and run year round.

I very much doubt we'll see Virgin launch a new route before BA from LON. Only LGW-LAS and LHR-PVG beat BA to the launch and now they have been joined on both. However they're doing *way* better than recent years on hard product with the arrival of 10 A333s and revamped B744s.

GUYAIR707 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 1:51 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 11):

I wonder how things will change with a DL partnership. There were rumours that Branson would give up more than 51% but apparently that is not true. I am surprised that DL is so strong given their awful service in the recent past.

GUYAIR707

IndianicWorld · Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:23 am

I agree with the viewpoints raised so far that further Australian cities are unlikely. Even SYD will likely be reviewed at some stage given the resources required to operate the services, and the competitive pressures which drive down yields.

There's already a myriad of one-stop services to Australia, all fighting it out for a piece of the pie. We can all see that VS has struggled to find consistent results on many routes it has tried, but there are better options out there for them than trying to fly half way around the globe to Australia.

Kleiner · Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:18 am

With JAL beginning services with their 787, how about SAN?

olddominion727 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:32 am

I think MAN is going to see some of these maybe to LAX, HKG, JFK, SAO, ATL, SEA, MEX, MVD, SCL, SFO, KIN/MBJ, Virgin Gorda, LAS, BKK, TPE, HND, CAN

aerorobnz · Sun Dec 09, 2012 7:31 am

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 18):
I think MAN is going to see some of these maybe to LAX, HKG, JFK, SAO, ATL, SEA, MEX, MVD, SCL, SFO, KIN/MBJ, Virgin Gorda, LAS, BKK, TPE, HND, CAN

Yep, agreed that MAN will see more flights but I don't see MVD any time soon. If Iberia is pulling out then VS doesn't stand a chance.

AAMDanny · Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:54 am

With the A333's win the 3 class config coming to LGW next winter I can maybe see some bucket and spade expansion out of MAN. MAN will loose it's 2 class A330 and become an All Boeing base (well, x2 747 as compared to the x1 747 and x1 A330 is has currently been) The x3 2 class A330's (G-V SXY/KSS/INE) will all be reconfigured with the new J class cabin.

MAN holds a lot of potential, however Virgin are going to try linking there LHR services with a x3 daily A319 on the MAN-LHR run. I could maybe see more bucket and spade routes like MAN-UVF, MAN-ANU and defiantly MAN-CUN, especially with Virgin Holidays are doing so well at flogging the seats.

b78710 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:56 am

A380's will never be taken, Will probably be converted to A350's.

787's not due to arrive until the end of 2014, so 2 years from now.

787's will replace the A340-600's that are continuing to leave the fleet (3 so far, one more before Christmas and 2 next year. Along with 1 LGW 747-400)

LJ · Sun Dec 09, 2012 10:00 am

Quoting justinlee (Reply 9):

PEK-LHR route is really underserved. Compared to PEK-FRA and PEK-CDG that have 3xDaily, PEK-LHR is only 2xDaily. BA is really conservitave on expanding in China Mainland. They are in lack of partners because of the absence of OW in China Mainland.

The UK-China market is also smaller than France/Germany/The Netherlands - China. Though this may change once the Chinese investment office goes to London. Maybe this is also due to UKs focus on Hong Kong as a gateway towards China.

fcogafa · Sun Dec 09, 2012 10:59 am

Quoting LJ (Reply 22):
PEK-LHR route is really underserved. Compared to PEK-FRA and PEK-CDG that have 3xDaily, PEK-LHR is

If the need was there, Air China could put larger aircraft on their service. B77Ws were rumoured a year ago but that never happened, maybe because the LGW flights started and split the loads. Even A330-300s are not used, as they are to several places in Europe, so presumably a capacity increase is not needed.

gkirk · Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:51 am

I'd expect MAN-CUN 2 X weekly, as well as perhaps the return of MAN-Antigua.

GCT64 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:19 pm

Quoting GUYAIR707 (Reply 15):
I wonder how things will change with a DL partnership. There were rumours that Branson would give up more than 51% but apparently that is not true

The Sunday Times is reporting this morning (Sun 9 Dec) that DL will take the SQ 49% and AF-KL will take most of Branson's stake leaving him with a small percentage holding. They also say that EI will be operating the VS domestic services. Apparently all of this will come to a conclusion (or not) in the next few days.

jfk777 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:53 pm

Quoting steve6666 (Reply 12):
GRU and GIG - when LATAM is confirmed in OneWorld, they would get absolutely murdered by the combination of IAG and LATAM.

Brazil is one country Virgin Atlantic should fly to, Sao Paulo could fill any plane daily to LHR.

JobsaGoodun · Sun Dec 09, 2012 1:14 pm

Whilst I would like to see VS expand, I can't see much happening anytime soon - if reports in the press are to be believed this was a business that lost circa £80million last year alone so I can't help but think they need to address this before thinking about anything else.

flybhx764 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:13 pm

I remember reading somewhere that VS was looking to fly LHR - IAH, China and India Destinations. Whatever they do add good luck to them.

LHRFlyer · Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:28 pm

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 18):

I think MAN is going to see some of these maybe to LAX, HKG, JFK, SAO, ATL, SEA, MEX, MVD, SCL, SFO, KIN/MBJ, Virgin Gorda, LAS, BKK, TPE, HND, CAN

There is really not a chance of most of these routes being launched by VS from MAN. No feed and a limited O&D market. The current MAN routes work because of the traffic from Virgin Holidays.

VCy · Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:41 pm

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 25):
The Sunday Times is reporting this morning (Sun 9 Dec) that DL will take the SQ 49% and AF-KL will take most of Branson's stake leaving him with a small percentage holding.

skyteam!! i hope they manage to keep the onboard product the same tho! if not, then at least lets hope it doesnt end up looking like DL.

justinlee · Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting LJ (Reply 22):
The UK-China market is also smaller than France/Germany/The Netherlands - China. Though this may change once the Chinese investment office goes to London. Maybe this is also due to UKs focus on Hong Kong as a gateway towards China.

It's also due to the visa problem. France and Germany has issued Approved Destination Status contract with China. It's pretty easy for Chinese to get a Schengen visa but UK is a whole different story.

Quoting VCy (Reply 30):
skyteam!! i hope they manage to keep the onboard product the same tho! if not, then at least lets hope it doesnt end up looking like DL.

It's a good add for skyteam with more presence in the UK market. Now OW has kind of dominant the US-UK market in a bad way. In most cases, the Y fare for 7hrs JFK-LHR route is more expensive than 14hrs JFK-NRT route.

[Edited 2012-12-09 07:54:49 by SA7700]

laca773 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:44 pm

Since this is about speculation, if this DL/AF buy out takes place, I look for VS to start LHR-ATL, possibly DTW. Other Sky Team hub flights will follow as well.

I don't think we'll see VS take the A380s either. Too much a/c for them, unless Branson, goes ultra-luxury and puts mini-suites on the upper deck, and etc.. But then would it make money.
I think it's possible they'll order 787-10s if Boeing decides to move forward, as well as the 77W. They need something more economical over the A346s.

willd · Sun Dec 09, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 13):
I very much doubt we'll see Virgin launch a new route before BA from LON. Only LGW-LAS and LHR-PVG beat BA to the launch and now they have been joined on both. However they're doing *way* better than recent years on hard product with the arrival of 10 A333s and revamped B744s.

I think you will find that when the agreements were made between the UK and Chinese governments, BA was given PEK and VS PVG. A couple of years later BA was given PVG and VS was given the rights to operate PEK (much like GRU when JJ was given LHR) but decided not to start operations- this was done pre Beijing Olympics and widely reported. It was hardly a case of VS beating them.

I am surprised to see a compliment from you Skip to VS. Your normally all doom and gloom. Why people cant say, well actually you did a pretty good job considering where you started in 1984. What SRB/Steve Ridgway have done is impressive especially given that every major asset finance company in the city refused to finance the first VS plane. In the end Natwest was forced to provide the finance because Virgin Records banked with them.

skipness1E · Sun Dec 09, 2012 5:25 pm

Quoting Kleiner (Reply 17):
With JAL beginning services with their 787, how about SAN?

Barely worked for BA and was only relaunched due to their relationship and local support and feed from AA. Highly unlikely.

Quoting olddominion727 (Reply 18):
I think MAN is going to see some of these maybe to LAX, HKG, JFK, SAO, ATL, SEA, MEX, MVD, SCL, SFO, KIN/MBJ, Virgin Gorda, LAS, BKK, TPE, HND, CAN

Most are not remotely likely except one which is already served, LAS. Honestly.
VS have just dropped LGW-KIN so no way MAN will see that before LGW returns thought MBJ is an outside possibility with help from Virgin Holidays.

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 25):
The Sunday Times is reporting this morning (Sun 9 Dec) that DL will take the SQ 49% and AF-KL will take most of Branson's stake leaving him with a small percentage holding. They also say that EI will be operating the VS domestic services. Apparently all of this will come to a conclusion (or not) in the next few days.

If this happens, then there's little point in having the Virgin branding surely?

migair54 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting flybhx764 (Reply 28):
I remember reading somewhere that VS was looking to fly LHR - IAH, China and India Destinations. Whatever they do add good luck to them.

Now IAH will be a difficult destination with 2xday BA and 3xday United.

GRU is the most logical destination from LHR, big yields and the possibilities to connect to places like china and Japan.

I think they might add some flights from LGW as well to touristic destination like Male.

Quoting b78710 (Reply 21):
A380's will never be taken, Will probably be converted to A350's.

We will see, i think if LHR keep being so slot congested sooner or later they will need to use them because it will be the only way to add seats, SFO, LAX, JNB and HKG could work, And given virgin holidays they could also use them to serve places with high demand of tourist loads... with a config for high density.

Calpe · Sun Dec 09, 2012 6:37 pm

I think in the short term VS are better off concentrating on upgrading their current offering which it would appear they are doing a good job at. I doubt VS planners have any massive plans for long haul growth at the moment as the new short haul routes are probably taking up a fair bit of their resources and I expect they will see what these routes bring to the frame before deciding on what long haul changes to make, it any.

steve6666 · Sun Dec 09, 2012 8:04 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 26):
Quoting steve6666 (Reply 12):
GRU and GIG - when LATAM is confirmed in OneWorld, they would get absolutely murdered by the combination of IAG and LATAM.

Brazil is one country Virgin Atlantic should fly to, Sao Paulo could fill any plane daily to LHR.

Quoting migair54 (Reply 35):
GRU is the most logical destination from LHR, big yields and the possibilities to connect to places like china and Japan.

Well hold on a minute. At the moment there are two direct flights a day. There are big yields on BA - but at the same time, I have just bought two returns on BA from GRU to LHR for next spring/summer for $3000 plus tax. In Club World.

At the same time, (LA)TAM is (almost certainly) going to join One World. So in short order, there will be one airline with a huge short haul network at the London end that is in an alliance with two airlines with a massive short(er) haul network at the Sao Paulo end. On top of which Iberia have up to 10 frequencies a week depending on the season. Virgin would get squeezed right out of the market. You are more likely to see another BA frequency, or BA using the A380 to GRU than a successful Virgin flight.

sunrisevalley · Sun Dec 09, 2012 8:33 pm

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 1):
One city not on your list for the B789 is PER.

It doesn't work , at least non-stop, to the UK. It does'nt work for a 77L so it wont work for a 789. Westbound non stop is pushing 19hrs / 8550nm ESAD.

TWA772LR · Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:56 pm

How about MAN-BDA? Or London to AUS during the summer?

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