A380 - Airbus Close To 'Significant Order'

fcogafa · Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:50 pm

To me, the elephant in the room is Skymark - they are very rarely mentioned on these pages but how likely are they to actually operate the aircraft?

astuteman · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:00 pm

Quoting something (Reply 90):
Where would those (earlier) production slots come from, especially in ''significant'' proportions?

I didn't say "earlier". I said "in a timely manner" - i.e. as another year passes and 30 more planes get delivered, more slots start to come into the range that customers will consider for ordering...

Rgds

brilondon · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:02 pm

Quoting shanxz (Reply 1):
3. Hainan Airlines

Quoting na (Reply 16):
Delta
United

My money would be on Hainan Airlines. As before and continuing today, UA and DL will probably not order the A380 as their route structure is not conducive to having a VLA. I know that they have the 744 and that those aircraft will eventually need replacing, but I believe that those replacements would come in the form of A359/10 or the 777-X variant.

BasilFawlty · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:08 pm

Hmm, in my view CA, CX and TK are the most likely candidates. My wild-card would be for SV.

EPA001 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:40 pm

Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 14):
-800 or -900?

-1000!

.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 18):
I've got a feeling BA may top up their order.

Could be. I am expecting them to do so considering the big 747-fleet which will need replacement some day.

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 18):
However, I hope it will be CX..

Me too!

.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 51):
My guess is CX, followed by BA, with TK and GA possible but less likely.

Especially TK I would now consider to be unlikely with the latest large orders they placed at Airbus (A330) and Boeing (B77W)

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 56):
I hope it will be UA!

That would be something, wouldn't it?

.

Quoting babybus (Reply 61):
QR really need to order a whole new tranche of A380s to keep up with EK.

But do they want to keep up with EK in EK style? Or will they go on an build on a bit smaller planes?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 74):
I'd be surprised to see TK order either the 747-8 or A380-800 right now. They just added a significant order of 777-300ERs and A330-300s that will be pushing operations at IST.

Agreed. TK is unlikely to be a candidate for this announcement.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 88):
My money is on EK adding 30 frames, launch of A380-900, and converting a few existing orders to the same model as well.

You are very optimistic. It is in my opinion too soon for the launch of the A380-900. Mid 2015 with EIS in 2020 would be a better time I guess.

EK413 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:47 pm

Considering DL are going ahead with a 49% stake takeover of VS would it be possible that DL have decided to take on VS A380 order and topped it up with an additional 10 frames to replace the B744 fleet from 2017 which was the latest delivery date for VS A380s...

EK413

[Edited 2012-12-13 16:00:57]

egph · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:51 pm

I would suggest CX as a real possibility on this one. Would like to see KL or IB order though, really do think KL might decide in the future the A380 is for them. IB not going to happen unless they change strategy and decide to offer more long haul than just LatAm

cedarjet · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:15 am

I'm repeating myself but I say again, cos no-one else is saying it - UNITED UNITED UNITED. Only Gigneil is talking sense here - and he's right - no way do you go from a 747 to an A350. That's a cut in capacity of 50% at a stroke. No way. They need a big plane, and it almost certainly won't be 747-822s (although that would also be nice).

Quoting gigneil (Reply 96):
the A350 order is intended to be the plane that flies the 744 routes, although I really cannot see the A350-900 being enough airplane for that.

If Airbus are about to announce a new A380 customer, I'm telling you, it's United.

Stitch · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:37 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 107):
I'm repeating myself but I say again, cos no-one else is saying it - UNITED UNITED UNITED. Only Gigneil is talking sense here - and he's right - no way do you go from a 747 to an A350. That's a cut in capacity of 50% at a stroke. No way.

United assuredly has the option of converting some or all of those A350-900 orders into A350-1000s, which would significantly close the gap to the 747-400.

Also, UA just down-gauged LAX-NRT to a 787-8 so they seem to be quite ready to gut capacity in order to shore up yields.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 105):
Considering DL are going ahead with a 49% stake takeover of VS would it be possible that DL have decided to take on VS A380 order and topped it up with an additional 10 frames to replace the B744 fleet from 2017 which was the latest delivery date for VS A380s...

DL is husbanding their cash by purchasing used airframes. There is zero chance they're going to drop tens of billions on brand new A380-800s.

avek00 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:00 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 107):
That's a cut in capacity of 50% at a stroke.

No, it's not. Remember, United only seats about 360 people in its 744s.

thegeek · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:06 am

Can't see that many of the proposed new customers would count as a "significant order", unless perhaps UA or CX. I say it isn't going to be CX ordering the A388. More likely we are seeing the launch order for the A380-900. Or I've gotten worked up for nothing.

n471wn · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:10 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 108):

DL is husbanding their cash by purchasing used airframes

Another example of why Delta is smarter than other carriers--------As a 40-year WN customer and raving SWA fan, nonetheless I am admiring Delta more and more on what they are doing!!

lutfi · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:17 am

Cathay, no. They will look at VLA this year, but too soon for an order, My guess is Etihad

pliersinsight · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:41 am

Perhaps a bit out in left field, but any thoughts about high capacity domestic use....say between airports on Japan or within China, ala the 747 Domestic?

Out of the box thinking I'm sure, looking forward to the shots over the bow.

rotating14 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:12 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 100):

They have 6 on order at the moment unless things have changed since then.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...rk-airlines-orders-two-more-a380s/

AR385 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:22 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 84):
(EZE during peak travel periods maybe?).

I´m not so sure. EZE is very seasonal for MEX-EZE, and AR is not going to remain a basketcase forever. And if they ever come back to be as what they were in the 80s, they´ll be a force to reckon with. I´m talking long term here...

Quoting EGPH (Reply 106):
Would like to see KL or IB order though

IB is just not going to happen for at least a decade.

CCA · Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:41 am

Well considering Airbus had its test A380 in the HAECO hangar yesterday and Airbus was at CX plus drinks were held in the A/C last night, I'd say Airbus is pushing hard at CX.

EddieDude · Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:48 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 115):
I´m not so sure. EZE is very seasonal for MEX-EZE, and AR is not going to remain a basketcase forever. And if they ever come back to be as what they were in the 80s, they´ll be a force to reckon with. I´m talking long term here...

Good point. I guess this reinforces our previous assessment that A380s are a no-go for AM.

AR385 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:29 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 117):
I guess this reinforces our previous assessment that A380s are a no-go for AM.

I think so. Besides, I can´t see them not going with the 748i, if they wanted a VLA. The relationship with Boeing is too cozy, plus NAFTA and the synergies such a purchase could generate, specially in QRO.

lostsound · Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:10 am

Air Canada...

Now that'd be unexpected!

mariner · Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:19 am

Bugger reality. I doubt this will happen, this is what I would LIKE to see:

Yeh, yeh, I know.

mariner

afterburner · Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:24 am

Quoting shanxz (Reply 1):
2. Garuda Indonesia

I don't think Garuda needs VLA's in the near future.

qf340500 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:24 am

mariner, now THATS a beauty!!!

art · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:01 am

I thought CX wanted an aircraft with greater range than A380 offered. A380 has lost some weight in the last 5 years. Engines have improved fuel burn as well. Range must have increased. Might range have increased enough to make it useable for more CX routes than the "original" version?

thegeek · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:12 am

Quoting art (Reply 123):
I thought CX wanted an aircraft with greater range than A380 offered. A380 has lost some weight in the last 5 years. Engines have improved fuel burn as well. Range must have increased. Might range have increased enough to make it useable for more CX routes than the "original" version?

CX's main objection was cargo volume.

gr09 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:46 am

And how about this one?

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifieda...earch/photo_search.php?id=00011303

But seriously, I hope for CX as I would like to see a new livery but any new plane is a good plane so I'm looking forward to the announcement.

johnclipper · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:52 am

I prefer CX going with 747-8i instead of A380...

flylonghaul · Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:02 am

My money would be on CX provided this is ACTUALLY significant, and not just hype.

I'd love to snap shots of a UA 380 in SYD though

Maybe we are all wrong and some one will surprise us. Oman Air taking on Goliath

TWA772LR · Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:09 am

I got my money on Great Lakes.

I'm calling CX. Or Jet Airways or Air India.

india1 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 6:25 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 128):
I'm calling CX. Or Jet Airways or Air India.

No way Air India, even if it means money for certain bureaucrats! They're a complete mess.

abba · Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:25 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 124):
CX's main objection was cargo volume.

I think that Art is right - the cargo volume argument seems to me to be mostly a-net wisdom often enough questioned by people who should know CXs operations well. I think CX either wanted more range or more capacity (-900). I feel CX is one of the main candidates for this order for the reasons Art mentions.

Btblue · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:11 am

Iberia...

Filler
Filler
Filler

AR385 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:12 am

Quoting btblue (Reply 131):
Iberia...

Not going to happen.

garpd · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:23 am

Quoting btblue (Reply 131):
Iberia...

Guess you didn't catch the news about their fleet simplification and job cuts program then?
Iberia have currently neither the need nor the means to order the A380.

CXB77L · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:31 am

Quoting JohnClipper (Reply 126):
I prefer CX going with 747-8i instead of A380...

Likewise. The 747-8i would look great in CX colours.

Quoting abba (Reply 130):
I think that Art is right - the cargo volume argument seems to me to be mostly a-net wisdom often enough questioned by people who should know CXs operations well.

Perhaps you're right, but if it is more than "a.net wisdom", then it's a legitimate concern. When pax and bags are accounted for, there are fewer LD3 positions available on the A380 for revenue cargo than on the 777-300ER or A350-1000, both of which CX have ordered in significant numbers. As a large part of CX's operation is cargo based, it's logical - at least, to me - to conclude that at least part of the reason that the A380 hasn't found its way into CX's fleet is because of its relative lack of cargo volume.

CX A380? I'll believe it when I see it.

oldeuropean · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:50 am

Quoting gr09 (Reply 125):
And how about this one?

This would be nice ... but please with another livery. This one is soooo boring!

sutrakhk · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:05 am

My bet would go for CX

The A380 is sitting next to the runway at HKG waiting the good news:

UAEflyer · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:14 am

Maybe a different customers negotiating at the same time

I would put SV & CX on the top of the guessing list

Asiaflyer · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:35 am

Quoting art (Reply 123):

I thought CX wanted an aircraft with greater range than A380 offered. A380 has lost some weight in the last 5 years. Engines have improved fuel burn as well. Range must have increased. Might range have increased enough to make it useable for more CX routes than the "original" version?

There is no route in CX network that the A380 can not operate, so why would they need more range from it?

airlinebuilder · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:42 am

can it be Hong Kong Express, they are re organizing the airline to be a LCC nextyear and China market is one big load market.

or a crazy forecast Cebu Pacific Air ")

Heavierthanair · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:59 am

G´day

They are visiting Hong Kong with the A 380, so it is likely that one or several potential customers are from that general area, which besides airlines located in Hong Kong could also include airlines from the south of China. Likely not from Taiwan, else they would have flown the A 380 there unless of course the Taiwanese want to avoid publicity on their negotiations.

But then Leahy is in in the UK now - or was yesterday for the Air Asia announcement, so who is negotiating?

The question also arises why they stopped over in Hawaii, not really the most direct route to Hong Kong. I do not see Hawaiian to buy the thing, but why then did they visit Hawaii. I doubt they did that to confuse us A-netters

Cheers

Peter

MCO2BRS · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:03 am

Could this be a firming up of the HX order that has been hanging in limbo for a while now?

How about a combined CX/KA order?

Cheers,

MCO 2 BRS

r2rho · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:49 am

I think the MTOW and aero improvements being introduced from the 1st BA a/c onwards may have finally convinced CX. The recent Hawaii visit is probably just a little thank you bonus to HA for being a good Airbus customer, maybe some general marketing tour combined with long-range flight tests. The visit to HKG however may be no coincidence....

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 138):
There is no route in CX network that the A380 can not operate, so why would they need more range from it?

More "marketing spec" range no. More payload-range yes. LAX-HKG comes to mind.

As for TK or UA... not yet... but eventually...

something · Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:16 am

Quoting MCO2BRS (Reply 141):
Could this be a firming up of the HX order that has been hanging in limbo for a while now?

I could very well see that. I seriously doubt it's CX. They are such a smart airline, they would have already bought A388 if they needed/wanted them.

CXfirst · Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:36 am

As for people thinking this could be firming of orders. The article says Leahy is hopeful for a memorandum of understanding before year-end with the firm order in 2013. So that takes that theory out of play.

Of course, that quote can be wrong and they actually meant firming of an order, but in that case we might as well not take the whole article into consideration then.

-CXfirst

KarelXWB · Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:36 am

CX always showed interest for the improved A380 with the extra range and now you can order it. CX could be behind the 'significant order', maybe 10 or 12 frames.

Quoting MCO2BRS (Reply 141):
Could this be a firming up of the HX order that has been hanging in limbo for a while now?

That order was already been firmed up.

airlinebuilder · Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:54 am

Must CX be the candidate to the A380, that will the last nail to the B748i, forever it will be a rare breed. I still hope 6 frames for Philippine Airlines with options for 4 considering its transpacific targets of New York, Chicago, Miami

bthebest · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:04 pm

I'd like to see BAs next step in their longhaul fleet renewal. Think I remember reading somewhere that they were planning to have a decision by end of 2012, or was it 2013?

I think they will definitely get some more A380s, maybe 10 or 15 more. Along with some more 77W and then probably wait and see what Boeing will do with the 777-X for the rest of their 747 replacement.

Other than BA, I see CX, CI, KL, UA and then a bunch of top up orders at a later date.

something · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:15 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 145):
Quoting MCO2BRS (Reply 141):
Could this be a firming up of the HX order that has been hanging in limbo for a while now?

That order was already been firmed up.

''Hainan Airlines’ subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines is considering changing out its Airbus A380 orders in favor of the A330 [...] Hainan Airlines Group chairman Chen Feng said the company is in negotiations with Airbus but no final decision has been made.''

''The Chinese government reportedly blocked the order earlier this year, in part to express its disapproval of Chinese carriers' inclusion in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which has been suspended one year to allow time for ICAO to finalize a global scheme.''

http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engine...airlines-may-switch-a380-a330-1207

HX has been treated as a canceled order already. Maybe now with the ETS suspended there's a chance those A380 will be delivered.

airlinebuilder · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:17 pm

no one in this forum as answered my query yet, must there be an order for an ASAP delivery for the A380, where will airbus take it from and how soon can it be delivered? are the canceled frames on the production line already?

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