A380 - Airbus Close To 'Significant Order'

afriwing · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:17 am

According to Aviation Week, Airbus is working on a significant A380 order

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_12_12_2012_p0-527595.xml

so .. let the speculations begin

.. but let's first hope it's from a new customer, rather than a top-up order

Cheers

(Edit: corrected quote Wink

)

[Edited 2012-12-13 02:21:17]

shanxz · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:28 am

1. Turkish Airlines
2. Garuda Indonesia
3. Hainan Airlines

In that order of likelihood...

AA737-823 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:28 am

Well, as much as I'd like it to be UA or DL (though I'd prefer a 748 order!), I suspect that it's not a US-based customer.
More for Emirates? Gee, I hope not.
Chinese?

india1 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:31 am

With the EU-China spat dissipating - with announcements for 320 & 330 orders since - and with JL being recently back from that country, is there anything we can deduce?

zkokq · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:32 am

Is this a Cathay Order incoming?

worldrider · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:32 am

i still expect CX to change their minds one day. Maybe we will have another chinese operator with this one.

spantax · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:37 am

No room for speculations. I know for sure that it is .... Ryanair (999 PAX configuration).

scouseflyer · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:41 am

Ok I'll play!

I actually doubt that it's a(nother!) top-up for EK as they'd probably not have a MOU followed by a firm order later.

My thoughts:

New customers:

TK, NH, Tam or maybe one of the other Chinese carriers. As a real outside bet, that Thai startup whose name that I can't remember!

Top-ups:

BA, EY (seem to have lots a cash to splash at the moment) or KE

Interesting next 10 days

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:42 am

why do I have this feeling it is going to be Philippine Airlines, there is much talk about Europe being receptive to the airlines "come back"

AF185 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:47 am

DL! They're on a roll this week

kl911 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:48 am

DL and VS ?

Bombarding LHR with A380's .

Focker · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:50 am

1. Air China
2. Turkish Airlines
3. Cathay (one can dream)

EK413 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:53 am

Why do I have a feeling it's going to be GA...

EK413

ushermittwoch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:56 am

Since it's supposed to be "significant," we can assume it will not be a start-up or a smaller airline.
Of course it will not be Philippine Airlines, since they could not serve the US with it.
Maybe they are calling it significant because of the customer, not the number of airframes, which is intriguing.

If it's in regard of airframes, my money is on these three:

1. EY
2. TK
3. EK

If it's in regard of carrier:

1. CX
2. DL
3. UA

AirbusA370 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:57 am

-800 or -900?

fcogafa · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:02 am

Depends what 'significant' means. Is it significant due to the number of aircraft ordered or due to the airline. If it is a new airline it could be thought significant to airbus.

na · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:03 am

Like others I hope its NOT Emirates.

I could think of, in no particular order:
Cathay
ANA
Turkish
Delta
United
BA
Etihad
Qatar
TAM (very remote chance)
China Airlines (very remote chance)
Air China or another major Chinese operator
or someone totally different

As for Garuda, maybe they could order 4, but that wouldnt be a significant order. "Significant" sounds like 10 or more, or a smaller order of an influential carrier not operating the A380 so far and bound to order more (CX, DL).

qf340500 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:08 am

Where was Leahy in the last few days??? Wasn't the A380 "demonstrator plane" flying from Hawaii to Hongkong afterwards???

SKAirbus · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:09 am

I've got a feeling BA may top up their order.. they have a lot of 744s to replace, which the 777X and A350 cannot cover in their entirety...

However, I hope it will be CX.. They have a lot of competition with A380s in service or arriving: Singapore Airlines, Korean Air, Asiana, China Southern, Malaysia Airlines, Thai...

SKAirbus · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:10 am

Quoting qf340500 (Reply 17):
Where was Leahy in the last few days??? Wasn't the A380 "demonstrator plane" flying from Hawaii to Hongkong afterwards???

So it's between Hawaiian and Cathay then

)) hehe

qf340500 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:10 am

Please, let it be CX

))))

worldrider · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:14 am

Quoting spantax (Reply 6):
No room for speculations. I know for sure that it is .... Ryanair (999 PAX configuration).

possibly the new "999 standing-active-full-flex" config! with personal energy-producing generators king of IFE where inflight mandatory competitions will be offered and the best ECO passsengers will be awarded lotery tickets/beverage discounts.. with trumpets!

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:18 am

To quote

"The French and the British are certainly happy that PAL is giving them a big chunk of the business via the acquisition of Airbus aircraft that include A330s, A320s, A340s, A319s, as well as A350s and A380s"
- The Philippine Star BUSINESS section Spy Bits by Babe G. Romualdez

......this can be that "order" remember Philippine Airlines got 36 more orders to go....

worldrider · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:45 am

a CX 15/20 frame order would make my next night dream.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 22):
To quote

"The French and the British are certainly happy that PAL is giving them a big chunk of the business via the acquisition of Airbus aircraft that include A330s, A320s, A340s, A319s, as well as A350s and A380s"
- The Philippine Star BUSINESS section Spy Bits by Babe G. Romualdez

......this can be that "order" remember Philippine Airlines got 36 more orders to go....

maybe 6 frames for Manilla-North Amecrica ops? would be another another nice one, and that would make my first dream even more likely.

scbriml · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:50 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
More for Emirates? Gee, I hope not.

Quoting na (Reply 16):
Like others I hope its NOT Emirates.

Why not? They've already said they will need another 30. But, it would be unlike them to issue an MOU/LOI first. I also don't see them topping up before the Dubai Air Show next November.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 22):
......this can be that "order" remember Philippine Airlines got 36 more orders to go....

Well, today they certainly haven't ordered either the A350 or A380. Then again, how reliable is the source? If they did order a bunch of A350s and A380s that would certainly upset some here who assumed the rest of the order was a slam-dunk for Boeing.

I'll be very surprised if it isn't an Asian carrier.

ushermittwoch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:53 am

Why would the British be happy?

Quoting worldrider (Reply 23):
maybe 6 frames for Manilla-North Amecrica ops? would be another another nice one, and that would make my first dream even more likely.

Under their current restrictions that would leave them with MEX, YVR, YUL and YYZ as possible destinations, since they are not allowed to change aircraft on their current US routes. I seriously doubt that they can persuade the FAA recategorizing them with an A380 order...

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:58 am

check out philippineairspace.blogspot.com the site explains the British on the Rolls Royce that complements the aircraft order........

worldrider · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:58 am

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 25):

Under their current restrictions that would leave them with MEX, YVR, YUL and YYZ as possible destinations, since they are not allowed to change aircraft on their current US routes. I seriously doubt that they can persuade the FAA recategorizing them with an A380 order...

interesting info, thanks for the insight UM

PIEAvantiP180 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:59 am

Quoting AF185 (Reply 9):
DL! They're on a roll this week

Quoting KL911 (Reply 10):
DL and VS ? Bombarding LHR with A380's .

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 13):
2. DL

Quoting na (Reply 16):
Delta

You guys can for certanly take DL off the list. At least for as long as the current managment team is running the show. Yesterday during DL investor day conference R. Anderson mentioned several times that the A380 will not provide a reasonable ROI for DL over a 30year span. A reporter asked him how do you compare buying VS and an A380 and he said it does not come close.

scbriml · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:08 pm

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 25):
Why would the British be happy?

Why wouldn't they be very happy? Airbus wings and RR engines for a start.

SKAirbus · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:09 pm

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 25):
Why would the British be happy?

Because a large part of the manufacturing takes place in the UK for the A380... The wings, which are if I'm not mistaken quite a big and critical part of the aircraft.

Also, many airlines have gone for Rolls Royce engines, which are British.

So essentially ordering an A380 is good for the British economy as well as the French, German, Spanish.. etc

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:14 pm

very well said SKAirbus!

Wisdom · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:15 pm

My 3 choices:

-SQ
-LATAM
-CX

ushermittwoch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:18 pm

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 30):
Because a large part of the manufacturing takes place in the UK for the A380... The wings, which are if I'm not mistaken quite a big and critical part of the aircraft.

Also, many airlines have gone for Rolls Royce engines, which are British.

So essentially ordering an A380 is good for the British economy as well as the French, German, Spanish.. etc

After reading that blogspot entry, it becomes clear, why they are sucking up to the Brits.
Looks like quite a bit of bribery might be going on. Just sayin'.
We'll see what comes of this.
The more I think about it, the more I am leaning toward a CX order.

CXfirst · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:21 pm

Quoting spantax (Reply 6):
No room for speculations. I know for sure that it is .... Ryanair (999 PAX configuration).

I'm sure they could fit a couple thousand with their all-standing configurations.

I dearly hope it is CX or perhaps TK.

However, as others, I fear it will be EK (which has become so boring lately.... [unless it is A380-900])

-CXfirst

SKAirbus · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:23 pm

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 33):
After reading that blogspot entry, it becomes clear, why they are sucking up to the Brits.
Looks like quite a bit of bribery might be going on. Just sayin'.
We'll see what comes of this.
The more I think about it, the more I am leaning toward a CX order.

Well if you are going to use that logic then I would say Germany and France are also culprits here. It has been known for Airbus orders to be signed in conjunction with state visits by the likes of Merkel and Sarkozy/Hollande so it is a bit naive to accuse the Brits of bribery here.

ushermittwoch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:23 pm

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 34):
However, as others, I fear it will be EK (which has become so boring lately.... [unless it is A380-900])

Which would also qualify as significant.

JerseyFlyer · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:24 pm

The report reads to me more like a new customer than a top up by an existing customer.

scbriml · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:26 pm

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 33):
Looks like quite a bit of bribery might be going on. Just sayin'.

Just sayin' bribery? Based on what, exactly?

ushermittwoch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:27 pm

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 35):
Well if you are going to use that logic then I would say Germany and France are also culprits here. It has been known for Airbus orders to be signed in conjunction with state visits by the likes of Merkel and Sarkozy/Hollande so it is a bit naive to accuse the Brits of bribery here.

Oh, no doubt about that.
But I haven't heard of any lobbying to let unsafe airlines come back into the EU by anyone but RR.

Richard28 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:29 pm

David Cameron is going to Airbus Flintshire later today, where an announcement will be made...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-20708486

BlueSky1976 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:40 pm

It's going to be either major Asian or European customer. I highly doubt any carrier from North America will ever order A380. 777-9X is as large as they will go, size-wise.

hooverman · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:44 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 40):

Must be a huge order if it's gonna save 9000 jobs.

I'll go for BA or CX.

Focker · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:48 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 40):
David Cameron is going to Airbus Flintshire later today, where an announcement will be made...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-n...08486

According to Bloomberg this is the AirAsia announcement, see:

AirAsia Order For 100 A320's To Be Conf'd 13-Dec (by Focker Dec 13 2012 in Civil Aviation)

And:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...ing-order-for-100-airbus-jets.html

na · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:48 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 41):
777-9X is as large as they will go, size-wise.

Much too late to replace their 744 fleets! And such plane would largely carry on the comfort and passenger appeal shortfalls the 77W now has against the 748I and A380.

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 40):
David Cameron is going to Airbus Flintshire later today, where an announcement will be made...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-n...08486

Airbus announces a deal securing 9000 jobs there. And they do make the A380 wings so its about a signifcant A380 deal. Sounds a lot like many more A380s for BA.

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:53 pm

considering that new airlines cannot wait for an open slot for the A380 by 2015 was it or 2017 not so sure about the date but are there any frames available by 2013 must it be a new airline for the A380 needing it ASAP?

kl911 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:59 pm

Quoting Hooverman (Reply 42):
I'll go for BA or CX.

BA already has the A380 on order, and I doubt LHR has enough space to build more A380 gates.

bthebest · Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:00 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 40):
David Cameron is going to Airbus Flintshire later today, where an announcement will be made...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-east-wales-20708486

Not sure whether this is related to an aircraft order or just a deal between Airbus and UK Govt. on tax breaks etc.

"The company says a new agreement will safeguard 1,500 Airbus jobs in the UK and 7,500 in its supply chain."

That comment makes it sound like industrial co-operation rather than an order.

Focker · Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:02 pm

Quoting Bthebest (Reply 47):
That comment makes it sound like industrial co-operation rather than an order.

The article states:

The company says a multibillion-pound order for 100 A320 planes from AirAsia will safeguard 1,500 Airbus jobs in the UK and 7,500 in its supply chain.

Heavierthanair · Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:02 pm

G´day

Likely Tony Fernandes is saving on travel costs by combining the order announcements for 100 A 320´s for Air Asia and a dozen or so A 380´s for Air Asia X expansion

The BA top-up for twenty more will be announced when they get their first A 380 delivered next year.

The CX order for a dozen A 380´s is not going to happen this year, but then again the A company also needs some press next year

Cheers

Peter

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