Is It Goodbye To The B748i?

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:53 am

It is evident, there seem to be no trend of interest from airlines to even give the B748i a second look. The current preference has gone to the twins and the only quads getting orders is the A380.

Is Boeing just going to allow the B748i to meet a natural death? or there is no life to speak of to begin with since the Lufthansa B748i is not for the books, the number just does not put on any significance at all?

All the rumored potential B748i has just gone to thin air......this is quite alarming unless Boeing could not care less at all then that is another story

sweair · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:11 pm

The freighter still has a market, even though the global finances are in the trash can now, it will pick up some day and if they make freighters they can make passenger aircraft. Even though the 777-9X probably will kill the 748i for good.

They should have gone for a re engine on the 747-400F and stayed with that. Hindsight is as always..

airlinebuilder · Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:00 pm

Given that the freighter is still a lifeline for the 7478F but I was referring to the 7478i, there seem to be no effort or a sense of loss for Boeing that all orders on VLA has unfortunately bypassed the 7478i.

Does anyone think that the 7478i is just a spill over of the 7478F program?

tdscanuck · Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:56 pm

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 2):
all orders on VLA has unfortunately bypassed the 7478i

Well, except for the 12 customers that did order it (as compared to 20 that ordered the A380). Hardly what Boeing was hoping for, I'm sure, but hardly *all* orders bypassed it. The difference between the 747-8i and A380 is much more in the number of airframes per order than in the number of orders.

Quoting airlinebuilder (Reply 2):
Does anyone think that the 7478i is just a spill over of the 7478F program?

In hindsight, yes.

Tom.

dcann40 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:01 pm

I echo others' sentiments: as long as there are freighter customers, Boeing can justify continuing the 748i program.

pillowtester · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:19 pm

Doesn't Boeing still make passenger 767 variants largely because of the tanker programme keeps the line alive? Freighters and passenger 747s are not made separately are they? What difference does it make if they don't make a passenger model for awhile... there's no need to "shut down the line"

IAHFLYR · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:24 pm

Quoting PillowTester (Reply 5):
Doesn't Boeing still make passenger 767 variants largely because of the tanker programme keeps the line alive?

You are correct. I was at PAE a week ago for factory tour and the 767 line is still open.

CXB77L · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:25 pm

Quoting dcann40 (Reply 4):
as long as there are freighter customers, Boeing can justify continuing the 748i program.

I agree. The 747-8 is here to stay for quite some time, regardless of whether there are any passenger models being sold. So to answer the question, no, the 747-8i will still be around. As long as there are orders for the freighter (and/or VIP aicraft), the 747-8 line will remain open. It is not dependent on the sales of the passenger model.

columba · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:48 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility. Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

A major airline needs to be seen flying the latest equipment. Passengers will see an airframe they recognise as a vintage 747-400.

Doubtful, LH will fly them for a long time, only a few passengers have a clue what they are flying on anyway

727LOVER · Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:54 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):

Vast majority of pax are NOT a.net nerds-------they have no idea how old an aircraft

@ TPA one day, an old lady was looking down to an aircraft. "OOOOOH, LOOK HOW BIG THAT PLANE IS, IT MUST BE GOING OVERSEAS!"

I chuckled silently------yep, that MD-80 is going overseas!

LGWflyer · Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:09 pm

Should Boeing have started thinking about building a newer aircraft i.e the 797 than re-doing an already successful aircraft... As it is successful already I doubt we would have seen airlines swap their current 744's for the 748. The 747 worked brilliantly over the years as we all know, but now with the new times and new rivals the 747 should have stayed as it was, and time to start looking to the future for new designed planes.

Boeing has the right idea building a new aircraft like the 787 rather than another 757/767. The 787 has done quite well so far and I expect it to do great in the future!

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
Vast majority of pax are NOT a.net nerds-------they have no idea how old an aircraft

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
I chuckled silently------yep, that MD-80 is going overseas!

Haha.

Sure it wasn't an Airbus A747?

smittyone · Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:32 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
an old lady

Well, she was just accustomed to DC-3s on the domestic flights

readytotaxi · Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:58 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 9):
only a few passengers have a clue what they are flying on anyway

Surley EVERY pax knows what types of aircraft they are flying on, they ALL read the Safety Card.

triple7x · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:19 pm

I felt like the B747-8i are aircraft designed to fit very 'special' markets, as the B747-8I is somewhat between the twin engine triple 7 and larger A380s as such most airline will rather go for the 777 or A380 instead

Rbgso · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:28 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
A major airline needs to be seen flying the latest equipment.

How do then explain the success of DL, who is the posterchild for flying old, and often orphan, aircraft types?

Stitch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:33 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility.

LH has long wanted a larger 747. If anything, they were the ones twisting Boeing's arm to build the 747-8 Intercontinental.

If Boeing was willing to give away 747-8's to secure orders, one would think they'd have more orders, wouldn't you?

I've long been on record as believe the 747-8 program was a mistake, but what's done is done. On the plus side, Boeing has lightened the structure by 2.5 tons and GE is continuing to work to bring the GEnx-2B to spec (or better) and Boeing is working to enable the tail fuel tank. All of this will reduce fuel burn and increase range at high payload weights, which is where the 747-8 has the advantage over the 777-300ER...

...though it's still at a fair disadvantage to the A380-800, which is the real problem, IMO. If you can justify a VLA, the A380-800 is the better VLA.

JHCRJ700 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:37 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility. Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

Do you mean convert their orders? or Actually convert the brand new 748s?

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
@ TPA one day, an old lady was looking down to an aircraft. "OOOOOH, LOOK HOW BIG THAT PLANE IS, IT MUST BE GOING OVERSEAS!"

I chuckled silently------yep, that MD-80 is going overseas!

LOL! I was down at BWI a few years back and a father was telling his son that every WN737 was a 747. Ordinarily I don't bother, but I informed him that they were indeed 737's and you can tell a 747 by the upper deck and four engines. Needless to say he wasn't too happy about being corrected.

seabosdca · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

LH has a history of flying the wings off its aircraft and will do so with its 748s. These are more capable and efficient than their A346, which won't be going away anytime soon either.

maxpower1954 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:38 pm

Quoting rbgso (Reply 15):
How do then explain the success of DL, who is the posterchild for flying old, and often orphan, aircraft types?

The DC-9-50, MD-80/90 series and arriving 717s are not "orphans". They are fully supported by Boeing.

brilondon · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:39 pm

Quoting Triple7X (Reply 14):
I felt like the B747-8i are aircraft designed to fit very 'special' markets, as the B747-8I is somewhat between the twin engine triple 7 and larger A380s as such most airline will rather go for the 777 or A380 instead

The 747 has been a staple at airports around the world. The A380 is Airbus's counter to the 747 and their answer to the market studies they did when they looked at markets and the forecast demand which did not take into effect the current economic climate which is in the toilet and waiting to be flushed. The 747 for the last 40 years has been queen of the sky and will probably be around for many years to come. The Airbus product is really a great product and if not for the current state of the world economy would probably have done much better than it has. Having said that, the A380 maybe more aircraft then what the airlines really need and due to economic reasons, may never have a need for. If you will, the Ford Edsel of the airline world.

cargolex · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:47 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

I can say with 100% certainty that they will not. There might come a day when the 747-8i has a conversion program, but that day is very, very far off. Expect LH to fly the 747-8i fleet for at least another 12-18 years, minimum.

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
Passengers will see an airframe they recognise as a vintage 747-400.

Passengers see a brand new cabin on a brand new plane, and quite a nice one at that. Well done Lufthansa.

tdscanuck · Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:50 pm

Quoting PillowTester (Reply 5):
Doesn't Boeing still make passenger 767 variants largely because of the tanker programme keeps the line alive?

They still *offer* 767 passenger variants because the line is open and the marginal cost to keep the option is low. They're still actually making passenger variants right now primarily to burn down the very small remaining backlog and to satisfy some orders placed to placate late 787s.

Quoting PillowTester (Reply 5):
Freighters and passenger 747s are not made separately are they?

They come down the same final assembly line and much of the tooling is common. However, there are some significant part differences (primarily in the hump, main deck floor, nose, and interior).

Quoting PillowTester (Reply 5):
What difference does it make if they don't make a passenger model for awhile... there's no need to "shut down the line"

There is cost to maintaining the capability to build the interior...as long as there is some demand it makes sense but they can't maintain 747-8i capability indefinitely without spending money on it.

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):

I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility. Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

Why on earth would they convert them to freighters? Twenty 747-8i's is a *lot* of lift...if LH needed that much freighter capacity, they'd have bought 747-8F's. The business case to convert new -8i's to -8BCF's would be absolutely atrocious.

Quoting JHCRJ700 (Reply 18):
LOL! I was down at BWI a few years back and a father was telling his son that every WN737 was a 747.

I had some interns on a flightline once who looked at a 737 and thought it was a 747. Yes, airplanes look bigger from the ramp, but still...

Tom.

pnwtraveler · Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:25 pm

Ignoring EK, the A380 isn't flying off the shelves either, despite the current rumour of a "significant A380" order being talking about.

The current economy and positioning of airlines has more to do with the lack of orders than either the A380 and B748 programs. This is a significant economic downturn and airlines will have to have much more confidence before committing to large jumps in capacity. I think we are going to see a lot more of airlines taking a piece of other carriers, mergers, and other market rationalization before we see huge leaps in capacity. The cross Atlantic co-ops, potential for cross-pacific co-ops, and other cross border co-ops have to start to shake out before we start to see significant new orders versus just modernization. Too much capacity has killed airlines recently and the shakeout is still being felt during these tough times.

It is also down to whether the Airbus or Boeing estimate of the market size proves true in the short term. Boeing has always estimated the market for VLA substantially lower than Airbus. So while Boeing likely would love more orders, they did the 748i because of their estimate of the market. The F version was always thought to be the sales leader version of the two with the i providing incremental orders.

kc135topboom · Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:50 pm

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility. Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

LH was the launch customer for the B-748i. From what everyone seems to think, LH is very pleased with the bigger B-747. It has a premimum service their A-380s don't have. LH flies their B-748s with some 365 seays, yet fly their A-388s with about 525 seats.

LH has options of 20 more B-748s, atop their firm 20. My guess is some of these options will be exercised.

Ther have been some 41 firm B-748i orders, LH = 20, KE = 5, VIP/BBJ = 9, W3 = 2, and CA = 5. UN has a LOI for 4 B-748Is, and there are still another 15 -8Is from a UFO from the PAS in 2011.

I would not be surprized for B-747-8i orders from BA, AF, VS, UA, QF, and DL sometime in the future.

There is wide spectulation the B-748i will be selected for the next Air Force 1, replacing two B-742s with 3 B-748s.

Do you think EK got a major discount for the 90 strong A-388 orders?

Luxair747SP · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:06 pm

With more and more post going to be off-topic, can we please all go back to the topic the poster asked about?

Thanks and Rgds,

Johannes/Luxair747SP

wilco737 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:32 pm

I just flew the 748i today. From the pilots perspective it is a great airplane.

Well, passenger indeed often doesn't know how old an airplane is. Maybe they see new seats, but most imporant for the most is: do I have a proper seat and are we on time?

LH is quite happy with the 748i so far. Even without the stab tank (which we hardly ever need anyway) it performs well. Passengers are happy with the new cabin layout in C and F class. Good feedback so far.

wilco737

tp1040 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:47 pm

Aren't there already a number of discussions on this?

Tugger · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:52 pm

Quoting airlinebuilder (Thread starter):
Is Boeing just going to allow the B748i to meet a natural death? or there is no life to speak of to begin with since the Lufthansa B748i is not for the books, the number just does not put on any significance at all?

All the rumored potential B748i has just gone to thin air......this is quite alarming unless Boeing could not care less at all then that is another story

To answer simply and completely, yes Boeing will allow the 747-8i to meet a natural death, but that is going to likely be many years off. This is because as many have noted the -8i does not need to be ordered to survive as long as the 8F is in demand. The -8i can slot in fairly easily when needed. So no, no the -8i potential has not gone into thin air, it can still be a sound option for airlines if needed.

And don't forget one of the most important elements about having the -8i around is that it helps Boeing by giving some small level of competition for the A380 which in effect puts a cap on the prices that Airbus can charge for the A380 (basically it has to be price competitive with the -8i even with its well know lower operating costs etc.).

Tugg

N14AZ · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:55 pm

@ airlinebuilder: just one or two weeks ago we had a very similar if not identical thread. I am sure you still can find it if you look at page 2 or 3 of the civil aviation forum.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):
Well, except for the 12 customers that did order it (as compared to 20 that ordered the A380)

Well, 12 to 20 doesn't sound that bad. But as presented by KC135TopBoom it's 4 commercial airlines only compared to 19 commercial airlines for the A 380.

Quoting Wilco737 (Reply 25):
I just flew the 748i today.

And you dare to post this here! Making us all jealous. I just had a day in the office today...

cosmofly · Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:10 pm

With the talk of 77X and an improving A388, IMHO the probability of finding a good business case to build a 748i fleet will be very low.

If the economy is cloudy, the 77X looks like a safer bet. When the economy looks positive, it will be easier to justify the A388s.

Bottom line, it is much easier for airlines to say goodbye to 748i.

Given that it is such a niche, I also wonder if financing/leasing the 748i will carry a premium cost, other than thru B of course.

ER757 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:20 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
I would not be surprized for B-747-8i orders from BA, AF, VS, UA, QF, and DL sometime in the future.

With the possible exception of DL, I sure would be surprised.

Quoting babybus (Reply 8):
I bet Lufthansa got a major discount on their 748i just to give the programme some credibility. Those aircraft will probably be converted to freighters soon.

No chance - LH gave up flying the 747F years ago and sees no need to bring it back.

sweair · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:35 pm

Cost per seat of the 748i was close to the 77W I read, it can´t be that crappy? What it offer is space, way above the 777, 360 seats in a 748i is not as cramped as 360 seats on the 77W. Sure it has a lot more OEW to carry however.

kc135topboom · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:45 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 28):
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 3):Well, except for the 12 customers that did order it (as compared to 20 that ordered the A380)
Well, 12 to 20 doesn't sound that bad. But as presented by KC135TopBoom it's 4 commercial airlines only compared to 19 commercial airlines for the A 380.

I did not list the freight airlines who ordered the B-747-8F, only the airlines that ordered the "I" model.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 22):
LH has options of 20 more B-748s, atop their firm 20. My guess is some of these options will be exercised.

Ther have been some 41 firm B-748i orders, LH = 20, KE = 5, VIP/BBJ = 9, W3 = 2, and CA = 5. UN has a LOI for 4 B-748Is, and there are still another 15 -8Is from a UFO from the PAS in 2011.

I could go ad list the freight airlines, too. But we all know who they are.

danielkandi · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:59 pm

PEOPLE stopped caring. Thats the truth. Thats why no one in masses demand a certain brand of aircraft anymore. I wish people would complain to airlines an yell that they wanted this 748 !

yyz717 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:34 pm

Let's remember that a large number of 744 and 744F aircraft remain in service, most of which will need replacing increasingly as the decade progresses. So the 748i/F becomes increasingly attractive as this massive 744 fleet continues to age. It's reasonable/expected/logical that the 748i/F will replace a good portion of these. Yes, orders are light right now but the program could still see much success.

Having said this, Boeing does need 1 or 2 more "marquee" 748i customers on board soon to "soothe" the market place.

Any sudden increase in fuel prices and/or more A380 mx issues could also help.

Stitch · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:11 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 31):
Cost per seat of the 748i was close to the 77W I read, it can´t be that crappy?

I'd like to know what the trip costs comparisons are like - not just to the 77W, but also the A388.

NWADTWE16 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:42 am

Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck? Ive always wondered..it makes it look like an old model, and being so long its just not pretty on the eyes...

7BOEING7 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:52 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 36):
Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck? Ive always wondered..it makes it look like an old model, and being so long its just not pretty on the eyes...

Then it would be just another boring airplane--eye of the beholder.

denverdanny · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:59 am

If it cut into airbus' profit margin on the a380 while selling some frames on the side, seems like it was a good idea to me. looks cool, so we'd bereft without another model to see and ride on. who knows what the future will hold for it, especially if the economy recovers and booms, though that seems unlikely in the immediate future. there's so many topics on this.

kanban · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:25 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 36):
Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck? Ive always wondered..it makes it look like an old model, and being so long its just not pretty on the eyes...

take another look, the 8i has a stretched upper. or are you questioning why it doesn't run to the tail? now that would be ugly.

Stitch · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:27 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 36):
Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck?

The upper deck was stretched 4.1m compared to previous models.

The upper deck was not stretched the length of the fuselage because it likely would have required extensive structural rework and likely would have required recertification of the airframe.

tdscanuck · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:28 am

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 28):
Quoting Wilco737 (Reply 25):
I just flew the 748i today.

And you dare to post this here! Making us all jealous. I just had a day in the office today...

So did Wilco737...his office just has a better view than ours.

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 36):
Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck?

The 747-8i does have a stretched upper deck...that's one of the differences between the -8F and the -8i.

Tom.

MD-90 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:34 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):

The upper deck was not stretched the length of the fuselage because it likely would have required extensive structural rework and likely would have required recertification of the airframe.

And probably another emergency exit door.

NWADTWE16 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:58 am

I definetely was not referring to an extended deck to the tail..upon second glance at LH 747 it clearly is beautifully extended. I guess i just saw so many of the cargo and BBJ pics recently i forgot it was extended in the passenger/Commerical airline version. I wonder why the BBJ would not opt for fully extended..i understand cargo clearly being weight and its unnescasary...

seabosdca · Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:14 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 43):
I guess i just saw so many of the cargo and BBJ pics recently i forgot it was extended in the passenger/Commerical airline version.

All of the 748 BBJ pics I've seen so far show the normal passenger 748 upper deck... here are four separate BBJ frames with it.

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

NWADTWE16 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 3:37 am

Clearly im losing my mind then sorry

flightsimer · Fri Dec 14, 2012 4:56 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 45):

Remember, the BBJs won't be flying with any meaningful cargo. I'm sure the cargo holds can be used as additional living space as it is done with both VC-25s. Plus the BBjs have the skyloft as well, which give you more living space. However, I believe the skyloft can only be used between takeoff and landing. At least that was what was going to happen with commercial operators with the skyloft.

Even with the smaller floor plan, the 747BBJ has outsold the A380BJ 9:1, which will eventually go to 12:1 with the VC-25 replacements.

On a different note, remember, Boeing has turned down orders for the 747-8i because the airlines wanted them too cheaply. Given some time, Boeing might be able to go back and still get those orders possibly if the airlines have not orders anything else.

DocLightning · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:06 am

Quoting Wilco737 (Reply 25):

I just flew the 748i today. From the pilots perspective it is a great airplane.

Go ahead. Rub it in.

Wilco, I've heard that the 747 cockpit in general is noisy. Is that the case on the -8?

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 41):
So did Wilco737...his office just has a better view than ours.

Yes, but most of us don't have thrust levers on our desk.

zippyjet · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:16 am

Quoting LGWflyer (Reply 10):
Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
Vast majority of pax are NOT a.net nerds-------they have no idea how old an aircraft
Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 10):
I chuckled silently------yep, that MD-80 is going overseas!

Haha. Sure it wasn't an Airbus A747

No, I believe that was a Lockheed Constellation DC-7!

Regarding the 747-8, I guess Boeing was trying to evolve the Baluga jumbo like with the 737. This way, Boeing could fill the gap until they roll out their Blended Wing Hypersonic 800 series bird that does to commercial aviation like the 707 did back in the late 50's. One can hope and dream.

7BOEING7 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:16 am

Quoting NWADTWE16 (Reply 36):
Why did Boeing develop this 748-I without a stretch upper deck? Ive always wondered..it makes it look like an old model, and being so long its just not pretty on the eyes...

I'll rephrase my reply--the 747-8F is almost as ugly as the Armstrong Whitworth Argosy, but the 747-8I is a thing of true beauty.

Quoting denverdanny (Reply 38):
If it cut into airbus' profit margin on the a380 while selling some frames on the side

From the beginning I as well as many of the people I worked with felt that this was part of the equation--it was a "place keeper" -- it was put in "place" to "keep" AB from running away with the market and the A380 becoming their cash cow as the 747 was at Boeing. That combined with the large quantity of 744's out there that will need replacement--might be a few $$$ to be had.

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