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MrChips
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:52 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 97):

Your quote from the Globe article isn't just a warning of things to come, it's happening in a huge way right now here in YYC. The draw of high wages in the energy industry is sucking the talent out of just about every other industry in town. Many people working in that industry are from other sectors; teachers, nurses and the like - they're pulling talent from industries that really need it. I've even been asked myself occasionally, "Why are you working for such low pay in aviation? With your experience in management, you could easily clear $100k per year in an O/G company!" In my case, at least, the answer is "Because airplanes!", but sometimes I honestly wonder.

Because of this, and because YYC is such a one-dimensional town with most of its residents coming from elsewhere, I fear a massive day of reckoning is coming at some point. Basically, like what happened in Detroit but with less of the ugly racist undertone.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 98):
^ I don't disagree with you. Someone was wondering why not a lot of capacity on YYC-NYC.

There is a fair bit more YYC-NYC traffic than is immediately evident, but I would imagine most of it still connects through YYZ, just as it has for years now. Non-stops to NYC are a relatively recent thing.
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pnwtraveler
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:36 am

Also it isn't always just the head office that generates a lot of travel. The huge growth in Head Office locations in YYC is predominantly oil and gas, and related industries as the above quote states. They seem to be less travel oriented and those who travel seem to be in specific roles rather than widespread. A high amount of shuttle between key offices rather than widespread sales travel etc. There are mind you a lot of regional offices for other corporations in Calgary who have head offices mostly in Toronto, like the banks etc. But those too involve a lot of shuttling. A manufacturer with international sales teams and service calls do a lot more widespread and international travel.

So the future for YYC is good with expanded volume. But no where near if there was international business and manufacturing at the same levels as the Petro industries.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:37 am

Quoting MrChips (Reply 100):
Because of this, and because YYC is such a one-dimensional town with most of its residents coming from elsewhere, I fear a massive day of reckoning is coming at some point. Basically, like what happened in Detroit but with less of the ugly racist undertone.

Actually, already happened in YYC in the early 80s. Oil prices collapsed and people left the city by thousands. On the way out, many simply stopped at the bank where they had their mortgage written up and simply dropped the keys off.

YYC is at some risk being so dependent on O/G. With shale gas & oil coming on, declining usage in the USA overall, a goal of energy independence by the end of the decade could be achieved. Since Gateway appears dead in the water for now, there might not be a large-scale customer for Alberta oil, which will gut the local economy. And poof, there goes the boom. Tar sands oil is going to cost $50/bbl whatever, so if the market price for oil collapses to, say, $40/bbl, that's not a good picture.
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GentFromAlaska
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:06 am

Whether commercial or private something tells me we are going to see an uptick with more flights between the big oil cities of OKC, Dallas and Houston to YYC in the not to distant future.
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planemaker
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:50 am

Quoting MrChips (Reply 100):
Because of this, and because YYC is such a one-dimensional town with most of its residents coming from elsewhere, I fear a massive day of reckoning is coming at some point. Basically, like what happened in Detroit but with less of the ugly racist undertone.

WOW!! But I guess that if oil were to go to $40/bbl or less, as some predict, the economy would contract severely... and government royalties would drop off precipitously.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 101):
Also it isn't always just the head office that generates a lot of travel.

As MrChips has pointed out, wages are high in Calgary... and with no sales taxes, more disposal income across all sectors of economy/society. Also, as he pointed out, Calgary is a "town with most of its residents coming from elsewhere" and hence a lot of family related travel. There are several other reasons for the growth in traffic.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 102):
Tar sands oil is going to cost $50/bbl whatever, so if the market price for oil collapses to, say, $40/bbl, that's not a good picture.

This is from a recent Globe article: In U.S. energy renaissance, flares of fear for Alberta’s oil patch

Quote:
In the third quarter, Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. sold its oil sands crude for just $38.12 a barrel.
Quote:
For Canadian oil producers, the market has responded ruthlessly. Though oil is a commodity, prices vary widely. The global benchmark, Brent crude, currently fetches about $109 (U.S.) a barrel. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas intermediate, stands at just $86 or so because of the continental surplus, driven in part by North Dakota. And with Canadian oil even more backed up, prices north of the border are even weaker.
Quote:
“Canada historically provided the U.S. market with approximately 15 per cent of its natural gas – and we’ve already found that’s dropped off by about half, and it’s going to go to zero,” said Bernard Roth, a Calgary partner in the energy regulatory practice for Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP. “The same thing is replicating itself now with respect to oil. ... It’s an extremely serious risk to the Canadian oil patch.”


[Edited 2012-12-29 17:54:57]
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 2:30 am

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 96):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 86):Even its former lack of diversity (formerly the 'whitest' major city in Canada) seems to be taking care of itself.

What does that mean?

It reads pretty clear to me.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:24 pm

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 101):
The huge growth in Head Office locations in YYC is predominantly oil and gas, and related industries as the above quote states. They seem to be less travel oriented and those who travel seem to be in specific roles rather than widespread. A high amount of shuttle between key offices rather than widespread sales travel etc.

Are there any stats that indicate O+G HQ's are less travel oriented? Given than YYC (a small city by NA standards) has NS flights to LHR, FRA, AMS and NRT, I would argue the opposite is more true of O+G.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 105):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 96):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 86):Even its former lack of diversity (formerly the 'whitest' major city in Canada) seems to be taking care of itself.

What does that mean?

It reads pretty clear to me.

So how does this apply to YYC generating more traffic? Is a demographically "whiter" city more, or less, likely to generate more traffic? What is the point you are trying to make?
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kgaiflyer
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:45 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 106):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 105):Quoting yyz717 (Reply 96):
Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 86):Even its former lack of diversity (formerly the 'whitest' major city in Canada) seems to be taking care of itself.

What does that mean?

It reads pretty clear to me.

So how does this apply to YYC generating more traffic? Is a demographically "whiter" city more, or less, likely to generate more traffic? What is the point you are trying to make?

It was an anecdotal comment relevant to the YYC catchment area past and present.

Such is allowed on A.net.
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:27 pm

YYC draws traffic from across Western Canada. Between YVR and YYZ, there's only one airport that has flights overseas (except for the few AC flights to LHR from YEG). So naturally, people might see YYC as a sleeping giant or whatever you want to call it.
 
MrChips
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:54 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 102):
Actually, already happened in YYC in the early 80s. Oil prices collapsed and people left the city by thousands. On the way out, many simply stopped at the bank where they had their mortgage written up and simply dropped the keys off.

I know - my parents went though that one back in 1984-1986 (I did too, but I was only a couple of years old at the time). It was as bad as you make it out to be. The silly thing is that the majority of people here blame the recession on Pierre Trudeau and his NEP, which had nothing to do with the worldwide collapse of oil prices.

Things were also pretty lean in the mid-1990s, when oil and gas prices took a nosedive again...only this time, there was no convenient Liberal scapegoat.
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connies4ever
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:08 pm

Quoting MrChips (Reply 109):
Things were also pretty lean in the mid-1990s, when oil and gas prices took a nosedive again...only this time, there was no convenient Liberal scapegoat.

Yah, will be interesting to see if the younger Mr Trudeau gets scapegoated the same way when he becomes PM. But that's enough thread drift for now.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:32 pm

The NEP wasn't a joke...I was one of the guys who lost his job the day the NEP went into effect. That has nothing to do with finding a scapegoat...that is fact.
What the...?
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:36 pm

^ funny enough you say that.

I see that some of the biggest oil patch companies getting picked up by state owned companies - ala CNOOC and Petronas.

I wonder what a giant national Canadian oil company would have looked like today.

Fact is that the oil companies in Alberta are getting sold left and right to foreign companies.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:47 pm

Probably like PetroCan, CNRL or Talisman.
What the...?
 
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BO__einG
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:33 pm

Good discussions all, everybody has had valid inputs to both the ins and outs of the YYC realm. As a long time member on this site and having seen many previous versions of discussions relating with YYC, this thread is very well discussed and is refreshing to get a 2012 update on where this city is going and what other Canadians (esp. PQ) thinks.

Overall Calgary is definitely on the right track even if at times it seems a bit ambitious. The city is rich with money and the airport authority has enough AIF fees and rental fees collected to start putting a major part of its grand plan forward. The oil biz will be the bread and butter and will diversify a bit more with other sectors like HIgh Tech and Transportation growing, we have more downtown office towers being built/developed now (6 towers 5+mill sq.ft) than any other city in the country except Toronto ONTOP of the ones already built to date. For a city of 1.2mills our skyline of commerce power is on par with the likes of Toronto, Chicago and Manhattan in terms of economic generators (billions of dollars each month). Cowtown is so important to the rest of the country, its quite evident how well YYC does getting pax records at the end of each year. All sectors benefit no matter how big or small the chunk of the pie is. It will continue to remain that way for the foreseeable future unless some other province discovers oil or dilithium and shifts the balance of power away from us. 

YYC strength as we all know will be domestic and with Encore coming online, I expect that to strengthen significantly as under served or untapped markets start to take growth. Ontop of the BC interiors and prairie provinces I also predict that some US states will get Encore service as long as its within the range of the DH4Q. I can see places like GEG coming back in the long run after the Canadian market is tapped. Washington and Oregon would be best bets for Encore penetration for seasonal, tourist based traffic and hopefully business too someday. Those two states have almost the same pop. as Ontario so there definitely is huge money making potential and the DH8Q might just be the right equipment for it and flight times are shorter than flying to Winnipeg.

Some factors that still interfere with YYC prosperity are of course the Government policies with the bilateral. Somebody has raised a good point on this earlier on, why can't they relax to allow supply and demand to dictate who flies in and how often? Even if major world carriers like LH does not find YYC to be a viable market there are countless airlines that operate a cheaper model that could give YYC a good shot and probably make a profit. I have heard that KLM has a lower operating cost model than BA or LH and look how well they are doing. TK is another fine example on the same ranks of KL, they have the most international destinations over all airlines in the world right now. They have a cheaper operating model (whatever that means comparing to the legacy's, maybe no unions!)
Therefore equivalent airlines in Asia or Mid east regions could prove to be attractive choices for YYC and I'm optimistic the expansion will help make sure "they will come". Remember, $2bill worth of work is definitely for LONG term growth or i"ll be a monkey's uncle!

Somebody has also mentioned the so called 'one dimensional' mentality or character of the city. This may be referring to the dependence of the oil sector or maybe the conservatism of many people, businesses and developers which restrains the potential of what YYC and Calgary as a whole could truly become. This aspect is where I admire the likes of YYZ,YUL & YVR since they have a huge diversity and are much more liberal cities flourishing with culture and vibrancy. They are lucky to get all those variety of worldly destinations even if its to places like Algiers or Qatar and there is no doubt a part of that is because they are both exciting cities to be in. Cowtown still goes to sleep on most nights of the week and most Calgarians don't travel very much other than for Business or for Family and Winter getaways to resorty places despite the high income. Only in recent years has it attracted more international demographics and that has thankfully dimmed down the so called 'redneck' mentality that many attribute to our fine city. Just look at our architecture to see first hand how conservative we are. Outsiders had to be hired to show us how its done and I think this kind of principle will have to apply in the airline biz to the point where some carrier say NP will give YYC a run and grind out the kinks to fix our habits so our citizens fly them to Asian countries. (I say NP cuz they already flew to YYC in the past during summer season charters and they may be a contender to supplement the AC japan flights) Question is not if but when will change occur where this city could truly become a 'giant' in the Canadian market.

Somebody was also spot on about aircraft equipment that will likely be our official bird after the Liebherr Tower Crane. Add in the Boeing 767, 787 and the A330 for our main calling cards to the world. At best case YYC will attract enough biz to warrant 77L or 77W but no double deckers or humpbacks anytime soon. I see a greater chance of A380F one off flights every few months than the pax ones. There already is 748F service from CLX and several AN124's every few months.

The New Int'l Terminal will be nice and flexibility is built in to allow adjustments to accommodate transborder flights too, so it won't be that empty!
Our two major FBO's contribute to a significant amount of aircraft movements and I'm not sure if those numbers are included in the stats as I assume they are pax traffic thru the terminals only. Include the FBO's and we would be 3rd place, fact! 

I say this as a Calgarian living here for the past 28 years who is the main a.net contributor of plane photos taken at YYC that also lives and works downtown in the developer run industry which ties heavily with all those sectors.
Also well traveled enough to see the bad 'habits' the city continues to do which inhibits our potential as a 'world class city'. (I see the odd news paper article labeling this term like last week, and honestly we are not there yet)
Lastly, apparently YMM has direct flights to the states, now I'm getting anxious...
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BO__einG
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:40 pm

I dont like our most valuable companies being sold off to foreign entities, it threatens our stake in our most prized possession which is the oil. But could that translate to increased Canada-China traffic to warrant new air services to Beijing? I hope so, that might change my mind.
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MrChips
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:04 pm

Quoting BO__einG (Reply 114):
For a city of 1.2mills our skyline of commerce power is on par with the likes of Toronto, Chicago and Manhattan in terms of economic generators (billions of dollars each month).

Comparing Calgary to the likes of Chicago and NYC in terms of commerce is laughable. If we were to consider these cities as countries, NYC would make as much GNP in a week as Calgary would in a year, with Chicago not far behind.

As much as this will offend some people's sentiments, but based on my experience traveling, Calgary is really nothing more than a sleepy, provincial backwater on the world scale. There are too many narrow-minded people here who seem to still think of the city as it was twenty or thirty years ago and because of their attitude, it really holds the city back from truly developing into what it should or could be. As much as it's warm and comforting to think of Calgary as a friendly, small town, it just isn't anymore. We need to start thinking and acting like a big city; it's time to "grow up", both literally and figuratively. Only then can we get this city off of this ultimately unsustainable model of development.
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ACT7
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:05 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 46):
I remember the days when YYZ used to get Olympic, Malev, Czech Airlines. They are now all gone. But they basically got replaced with the likes of EK, EY, TK and so on. There's no such thing called unlimited growth. And the same principles apply to your beloved YYC.

Olympic, Malev, and Czech stopped flying to NA entirely because they were money losing airlines, Malev going completely bankrupt and Olympic basically bankrupt. Canada imposed visa restrictions on the Czech Republic and one of the conditions was no non-stop flights from Prague to anywhere in Canada. It had nothing to do with growth in those markets and those routes are certainly not being "replaced" by EK, EY, and TK. If anything Austrian and LOT have picked up the slack, but LH I'm sure still feeds those markets well.

Now, as for YYC being a sleeping giant, I know I will be pegged as a YYC hater, but the truth is that YYC is primarily a domestic market (70% of its pax traffic is domestic vs. about 40% for YYZ and YUL). No matter what AC says in its inflight magazines, YYC is not a hub city - it's a focus city. And one only has to look at the number of destinations the single largest carrier there serves with its mainline frames. 13 (three of which are long-haul with one originating at YYZ) and 5 seasonal. And as has been mentioned, almost half that total traffic is to YYZ and YVR. Even with a continued strong petro-economy, YYC would NEED to be a MAJOR connecting point in order to be the so-called sleeping giant that some would like it to be. I'm afraid that that's simply not in the cards, WJ flying long haul or not. YYC's international pax traffic YTD has grown by about 8,600, so virtually nothing YoY.

The fact that YYC is building an over-sized pier is not an indication of future potential. I wouldn't necessarily call it a white elephant, but with just over 1 MM international pax a year, it's likely to be VERY empty most of the time.
 
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c172akula
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:35 pm

Why do so many people think the new terminal is just for international flights? It will be used for the transborder operations to the USA as well. So it won't be as empty as most seem to think, still quite large for the near future, but not a ghost town by any means.
 
ACT7
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:49 pm

Quoting c172akula (Reply 118):
Why do so many people think the new terminal is just for international flights? It will be used for the transborder operations to the USA as well. So it won't be as empty as most seem to think, still quite large for the near future, but not a ghost town by any means.

Okay, but even with about 3.3 MM pax total between transborder and international, it's still far too big for the current and foreseeable numbers. The pier is almost 184,000 sq. m which almost puts it on par with YYZ Terminal 1 international hammerhead pier. T1 hammerhead handles handles approx 7 MM international pax, and about 6.5 MM transborder pax, so about 4 times as much as YYC's, and it's still not at capacity. YYC's international and transborder traffic would have to grow consistently at 10% for the next 14 years in order to hit that number and I doubt that will happen given the arguments several people have already made.
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:17 am

Quoting ACT7 (Reply 117):
Olympic, Malev, and Czech stopped flying to NA entirely because they were money losing airlines, Malev going completely bankrupt and Olympic basically bankrupt. Canada imposed visa restrictions on the Czech Republic and one of the conditions was no non-stop flights from Prague to anywhere in Canada. It had nothing to do with growth in those markets and those routes are certainly not being "replaced" by EK, EY, and TK. If anything Austrian and LOT have picked up the slack, but LH I'm sure still feeds those markets well.

My point was that when airlines go out of business, some other airline comes in and fills the void. The concept of stimulating international traffic from YYC overseas makes no sense if more airlines start flying there.
 
ACT7
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:47 am

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 120):
My point was that when airlines go out of business, some other airline comes in and fills the void. The concept of stimulating international traffic from YYC overseas makes no sense if more airlines start flying there.

So we agree then?
 
planemaker
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:09 pm

Quoting ACT7 (Reply 119):
YYC's international and transborder traffic would have to grow consistently at 10% for the next 14 years in order to hit that number and I doubt that will happen given the arguments several people have already made.

If the perfect storm were to hit, what was previously posted... "I fear a massive day of reckoning is coming at some point. Basically, like what happened in Detroit but with less of the ugly racist undertone", really could happen. And it seems that few want to acknowledge or deal with that contingency... including, it seems, YYC.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Skywatcher
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:42 pm

I was in Vancouver this summer and a friend I was visiting stated "real estate prices in Vancouver never go down". Similarly, over Christmas my brother-in-law from Toronto stated "real estate prices in Toronto always go up". Neither of them was interested in my statements to the contrary. The YYC airport pro-expansion mentality reflects the same self serving , stubborn idea that if you say something loud and long enough it becomes true.
I for one will be looking to trim my oil and gas stock holdings in 2013.
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:30 pm

Quoting Skywatcher (Reply 123):
I was in Vancouver this summer and a friend I was visiting stated "real estate prices in Vancouver never go down". Similarly, over Christmas my brother-in-law from Toronto stated "real estate prices in Toronto always go up". Neither of them was interested in my statements to the contrary. The YYC airport pro-expansion mentality reflects the same self serving , stubborn idea that if you say something loud and long enough it becomes true.
I for one will be looking to trim my oil and gas stock holdings in 2013.

Well Real Estate in Vancouver has gone done down. Toronto has cooled from the overheated market that was prevalent, however there are still more high rise buildings (condo's) under construction than in NYC by a large margin. I don't think prices have dropped yet but that could easily happen in the New Year. The strong demand for investment condos as rental suites is still a cushion. Anytime an economy is overly dependent on one source it is prone to peaks and valley's.

I am not down on Calgary but rather a realist. A friend (who is a born and raised Calgarian) is the Office Manager for one of the larger petro companies in Calgary and she said their travel is almost exclusively to related companies, key conferences, and the vast majority being shuttling between Toronto, key US cities that fit the above and occasionally Europe. Compared to the income levels of the company, travel is much more minor compared to the manufacturing firms she has worked for. She thought it was rather typical of the other petro related companies in Calgary. That is what influenced me to say that Calgary's travel patterns were different from other "head office" cities in the US and Toronto that have more manufacturing and service oriented companies.
 
cyeg66
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:40 pm

So we all agree, then. YYC will be a ghost town in a few years; oil will no longer power vehicles, the multicultural flow observed over the past decade will ebb, Calgary real estate values will tumble, and the rest of Canada can start to feel better about themselves. Have I missed anything? Oh, and YEG will become Alberta's premiere airport... This thread.........   Same usual regurgitations. Kill it mods.
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Skywatcher
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:04 am

Quoting cyeg66 (Reply 125):

Sheesh, somebody is a little touchy. All I (we?) were stating was that the oil/gas sector may have peaked and that a downturn is likely. As a result the YYC expansion plans are overdone in the short term at least. Yikes.

I was specifically pointing out that whether people like to believe it or not things like oil/gas and real estate fluctuate. In my opinion both are ripe for a fall off in 2013. Sorry if anybody takes this prediction personally.
 
PITrules
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:31 am

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 124):
Compared to the income levels of the company, travel is much more minor compared to the manufacturing firms she has worked for.

Taken at face value, that statement can simply mean that energy companies are more profitable than manufacturing firms, not that they travel less when compared on a per capita basis.
FLYi
 
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c172akula
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 4:10 pm

I think I've figured out the CAA's plan. Should the economy completely self destruct and our passenger numbers decline and we have this shiny new terminal they can just shutter the original terminal and use our nice new one instead for all flights.

Problem solved.
 
planemaker
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:55 pm

Quoting c172akula (Reply 128):
I think I've figured out the CAA's plan.

I think a significant problem are AIF's ($30 on Mar. 1)... they facilitate delusions of grandeur by airport authorities.And the airlines are happily complicit in this pax money grab since they don't pay the AIF. If you eliminate the AIF the airlines would hold the airport authority a lot more accountable for some needless or "luxe" capital projects. Since when does anyone pay an MIF (Mall Improvement Fee) to buy something from Neiman Marcus at the mall? 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 129):
I think a significant problem are AIF's ($30 on Mar. 1)... they facilitate delusions of grandeur by airport authorities.

I don't disagree, but the airport authorities implementing these fees are accountable to their BOD's who ultimately must approve them. Airport authorities must also maintain good relationships with municipal governments. So there are checks and balances on the AIF's.

Also, we've seen a huge improvement in airport terminals (functionality, size and aesthetics) since they have been run by airport authorities in the last 20 years. So AIF's have their purpose.

In the final analysis, anyone put out by the $30 AIF in YYC, can choose simply not to fly and hence not pay it. Flying is always voluntary.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
pnwtraveler
Posts: 1074
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:12 am

RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:19 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 127):
Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 124):
Compared to the income levels of the company, travel is much more minor compared to the manufacturing firms she has worked for.

Taken at face value, that statement can simply mean that energy companies are more profitable than manufacturing firms, not that they travel less when compared on a per capita basis.

Not how she meant it. Profit obviously at the Petro firm is through the roof compared to the major name manufacturing. The petro company can afford much more private travel with both chartered and private aircraft.

The manufacturers had to travel more, work harder and push sales, and show face much more often than the petro company. Private travel was only for teams or very senior execs at the manufacturers. They had a formula that measured time including connections, number of people traveling, and seniority in order to book private flights. For example to visit a plant in a smaller centre in Ohio it was cheaper to fly 6 or 8 people on a Citation when a VP was also flying, than to connect to get to the town as there were no direct flights. They also had a very stringent business class policy that made economy necessary except for much longer flights. YYZ to LHR didn't qualify for business class except for VP level.

My point is, IF her experience and comments about the other petro companies is true, it means that while growth will continue at Calgary, unless major manufacturers locate there (shortage of workers is an issue there), the size of city, catchment area, type of travel currently taking place, means there isn't room for Calgary to become a "giant". That doesn't preclude new services, new airliners, and connections, but there is a long long way to go to become a Giant.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:09 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 130):
but the airport authorities implementing these fees are accountable to their BOD's who ultimately must approve them.

AIF approval is perfunctory. In most cases, most BOD's (which are not elected by shareholders but appointed) just say yes to whatever the airport CEO says. You can bet that if the airlines' had to shoulder the AIF, as they should as the airport's tenants, it would be a lot less!

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 130):
Airport authorities must also maintain good relationships with municipal governments. So there are checks and balances on the AIF's.

In "theory" but not in practice. But it is a mute point since there shouldn't even be an AIF.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 130):
Also, we've seen a huge improvement in airport terminals (functionality, size and aesthetics) since they have been run by airport authorities in the last 20 years. So AIF's have their purpose.

The tenants' should pay for it. Moreover, for the most part, they are "Taj Mahals"... way over cost and beyond what is required... delusions of grandeur.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 130):
In the final analysis.

In the final analysis, the pax AIF shouldn't exist. The airport tenants' (airlines) are the ones that should be paying for capital improvements. No mall charges customers directly for capital improvements... the tenants' (stores) pay for it. The AIF is in practice a tax that is easy to collect because there is little recourse from the pax. Airport Authorites that charge AIFs have taken Richelieu's maxim to heart...

Quote:
The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing

You know that the airlines would be "hissing" extremely loudly and collectively if they had to include $30 in their ticket price for a flight to Kelowna!
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15781
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:57 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 132):
The tenants' should pay for it.
Quoting Planemaker (Reply 132):
The airport tenants' (airlines) are the ones that should be paying for capital improvements.

The tenants, meaning the airlines, would simply pass the fee onto the customer, so we, as passengers, pay anyway.

The current setup, with the AIF, is best. It keeps the fee transparent (since the AIF is a tax).

Calgary passengers could organize a massive campaign to have the AIF reduced if they (collectively) wanted, but they won't.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 132):
You can bet that if the airlines' had to shoulder the AIF, as they should as the airport's tenants, it would be a lot less!

If the airlines had to build their own terminals (as many airlines have done, and still do), the fees could be higher, not lower.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:41 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
The tenants, meaning the airlines, would simply pass the fee onto the customer, so we, as passengers, pay anyway.

Again, there should be no "fee". Airport capital improvements should be budgeted and financed normally and those costs are then passed on to the tenants. However, unlike pax, the tenants collectively hold the airport much more accountable and the fees would be less. As I pointed out earlier, shopping malls don't make retail stores tack on a $30 Mall Improvement Fees when someone buys a jacket.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
The current setup, with the AIF, is best. It keeps the fee transparent (since the AIF is a tax).

The whole point is that there shouldn't be an additional "tax" on pax. They are already paying for some of the capital improvements via the air fares that the tenants charge. So... "the AIF is best" for the airport bureaucrats because they are able to "extort' more money for their 'Taj Mahal' delusions of grandeur, and best for the airlines (since they don't have to pay the full "freight" rent costs.) Moreover, among many negatives is that the AIF is not efficient and reduces accountability.

[quote"freight=yyz717,reply=133]Calgary passengers could organize a massive campaign to have the AIF reduced if they (collectively) wanted, but they won't. [/quote]

The AIF is still wrong. And pax grumble but don't do anything don't because of Richelieu's Maxim.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
If the airlines had to build their own terminals (as many airlines have done, and still do), the fees could be higher, not lower.

The fees wouldn't be higher... airlines still have to compete on fares... while the airport authority doesn't since it is the only game in town.

Quoting Skywatcher (Reply 126):
All I (we?) were stating was that the oil/gas sector may have peaked and that a downturn is likely. As a result the YYC expansion plans are overdone in the short term at least. Yikes.

I was specifically pointing out that whether people like to believe it or not things like oil/gas and real estate fluctuate. In my opinion both are ripe for a fall off in 2013. Sorry if anybody takes this prediction personally.


I don't think he bother to read the newspaper links provided before he responded. It not's like what we posted about the O&G industry isn't well known, nor Alberta's challenges... Tanking oil revenues, a government spending spree and the emerging economic predicament in Alberta
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein

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