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boeingorbust
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Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:21 am

Looking at the current expansion of YYC it looks as though the airports size is basically going to be doubled. With new cargo facilities and new hangars being built all over the place not to mention a new even longer parallel runway to 34/16, the Airport Authority claims this new expansion and capacity increase will attract new customers with A380's... They expect increased capacity in large amounts over the next 20 years. Also there's talk that BA's first 787 route will be YYC as it's currently their longest haul 767 route (so I've been told by BA employees). Do we see the A380 doing scheduled service to YYC with YVR so close? Is YYC going to become another YYZ or YVR? I guess more than anything I'm looking for some opinions on what I've heard and read so far.
 
wilco737
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:27 am

Quoting boeingorbust (Thread starter):

LH just pulled out of that route not too long ago for not making enough money. So currently it seems either the competition is too high with AC and BA flying similar routes and YVR being so close or the market is not there - yet.

It seems to be a growing area with oil etc so maybe in the not so far future this will change.

wilco737
  
 
boeingorbust
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:30 am

I was referring moreso to the growing Asian market into YYC. LH pulled out because of lower yields. Economy was full but J class had lighter loads which didn't make the route viable to fly anymore. BA and AC loads as of recent have been very strong in both J and Y classes. I'm wondering if YYC isn't a bit of a white elephant..
 
wilco737
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:39 am

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 2):
I was referring moreso to the growing Asian market into YYC

Ah ok, didn't read that within your post, sorry.

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 2):
LH pulled out because of lower yields.

Yes, LH was checking which routes doesn't make much money and they axed YYC. But when AC and BA make good money and the area is growing in the future there might be another LH flight. I haven't heard any rumours yet, but who knows.

Is YYC A380 ready? Would they be able to handle it?

wilco737
  
 
boeingorbust
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:44 am

After the expansion is complete they will be A380 ready. My other questions is will airlines actually get the rights from the government to fly scheduled service to YYC? Emirates tried to no avail and have limited rights into YYZ. Canadian government seems very strict on forcing as many people onto AC as possible to support the Canada's national failing carrier.
 
IndianicWorld
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:35 am

Just because something gets built, it doesn't necessarily mean that airlines will come running to service YYC.

The market might be growing, but it will take time to find any real attractiveness to more carriers to come along. Atleast the expansion allows for airlines to add flights down the track though, which is always a good position to be in,
 
connies4ever
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:29 pm

YYC cheerleaders should keep in mind that, while YYC is a major market in the Canadian view, in the world view it is at best a "small town". There will be some growth in international service for YYC, but it will never rival YVR,let alone YYZ.

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 4):
Canadian government seems very strict on forcing as many people onto AC as possible to support the Canada's national failing carrier.

Canada has a large number of Open Skies agreements, the EK/EY situation notwithstanding. Regarding the "failing carrier", with the recently resolved labour situation, AC's path forward is much clearer than it was 3-4 years ago. +$429M last quarter, not bad for a failing carrier.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:52 pm

Here is something to consider. YUL has a population nearly 3x as high as YYC. Yet YYC and YUL are essentially tied in enplanements. Thus YUL is greatly underutlized and lots of traffic potential exists there, or YYC is greatly over-served and the market as a stimulated as it can get. Hard to see that YYC has lots of untapped potential, unless oil goes to $150 or more.
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:08 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 7):
Here is something to consider. YUL has a population nearly 3x as high as YYC. Yet YYC and YUL are essentially tied in enplanements. Thus YUL is greatly underutlized and lots of traffic potential exists there, or YYC is greatly over-served and the market as a stimulated as it can get. Hard to see that YYC has lots of untapped potential, unless oil goes to $150 or more.

But you have to look at the mix of pax here. YYC is huge on domestic while YUL has very little domestic market. So YYC can never reach up to YUL's international numbers.

YYC will continue to do well, but other airpors are starting to catch up. YEG now has 13 or 14 nonstop destinations in the US and will reduce dependency on YYC.
 
factsonly
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:08 pm

One airline that seems to be quite happy at YYC, especially since LH departed, is KLM.

The airline increased capacity on AMS-YYC-AMS last Summer with the introduction of the A330-300 on Sat. & Sundays and the airline has now published 2013 Summer schedule with the A330-300 (292 seats) operating daily in high summer replacing A330-200 (243 seats):

- AMS 12:30 - YYC 13:30 09:00Hrs non-stop KLM KL0677 A333 daily
- YYC 15:20 - AMS 08:15 +1 08:55Hrs non-stop KLM KL0678 A333 daily




www.klm.com
 
flyyul
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:12 pm

YYC is not a sleeping giant other than a city that is very difficult to reach given its geographic location. EK has no interest in YYC - it was simply using Alberta/YYC has a ploy to get incremental landing rights to lucrative YYZ

As for Boeingandbust, may I remind him that Air Canada serves London, Frankfurt and Tokyo. How many other ciites in the USA with YYC pop.size have this kind of international reach?
 
Viscount724
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:18 pm

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 4):
After the expansion is complete they will be A380 ready. My other questions is will airlines actually get the rights from the government to fly scheduled service to YYC?

Dozens of airlines have unlimited rights to start service to YYC tomorrow, including every carrier based in the 27 EU countries (plus Switzerland, Norway and Iceland). QF could start service to YYC tomorrow and the same applies for many other carriers from virtually every continent where existing bilateral rights are either unused or not fully used.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 7):
Here is something to consider. YUL has a population nearly 3x as high as YYC. Yet YYC and YUL are essentially tied in enplanements. Thus YUL is greatly underutlized and lots of traffic potential exists there, or YYC is greatly over-served and the market as a stimulated as it can get.

You also have to consider geography. YUL is almost on the U.S. border and a few hours drive from many major U.S. cities. That's not the case for YYC which means a much higher percentage of Canada-U.S. transborder traffic flies to/from YYC than to/from YUL where cars, buses and trains are convenient options. The closest U.S. cities to YYC with any amount of scheduled service (GTF and GEG) are a 5 hr. (GTF) to 8 hr. (GEG) drive and they're hardly major hubs.

For a city Montreal's size, it has a very extensive range of international and domestic service. How many U.S. cities of similar population have scheduled transatlantic service on at least 12 airlines, including nonstop service to Europe, the Middle East, and Canada's only nonstop service to 2 countries in Africa (Morocco and Algeria)?
 
SuperDash
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:36 pm

I have to laugh. Calgary is a wonderful city and the nearby national parks are spectacular. But with a population of only 1.2M, it really is a small market. Energy gives Calgary an added air boost. But with service to London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Tokyo (all on small planes - and some not even daily), there really aren't too many more markets available for Calgary (Paris, Beijing, Seoul - perhaps). And those markets will be flown more with 787 size planes. I think the only time Calgary will see the A380 is on a diversion. Domestically and to the US/Mexico, Calgary will do well - especially because of its energy sector.
 
Skywatcher
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:51 pm

In my opinion YYC is well served by the traditional carriers. Where I find that it is underseved is in the "holiday travel" sector. Given the very high disposable income levels of the city and the fact that it routinely plunges to -35C during the winter I'm surprised that Air Transat and Sunwing haven't grown far larger in this market.
 
brilondon
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:05 pm

Quoting wilco737 (Reply 1):

Quoting boeingorbust (Thread starter):

LH just pulled out of that route not too long ago for not making enough money. So currently it seems either the competition is too high with AC and BA flying similar routes and YVR being so close or the market is not there - yet.
Quoting wilco737 (Reply 1):


Is AC not code sharing on that route?

[quote=bobloblaw,reply=7]YUL has a population nearly 3x as high as YYC. Yet YYC and YUL are essentially tied in enplanements.

Why are you comparing YUL to YYC? They are 4 hours flight time apart. Over two time zones. Really doesn't make sense to draw any comparison to me or am I missing the point as usual?

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 8):
YEG now has 13 or 14 nonstop destinations in the US and will reduce dependency on YYC.

YEG is a growing airport area and with the oil sands project up in YMM which is not able to handle the large aircraft.

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 12):
But with service to London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Tokyo (all on small planes - and some not even daily),



I don't think that A333's and 763's to be small aircraft. If you think that maybe an A380 or B777 should be flying into YYC then maybe we should find a market for YYC that would warrent such a large aircraft.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
SuperDash
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:25 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 14):
I don't think that A333's and 763's to be small aircraft.

Yes the 767, 787 and A330 are small twin aisle airplanes (admittedly the 330-300 not so much). The 777-300ER, 747 and A380 are on the large side of the scale and not a plane that will routinely see YYC on a year round basis

Quoting brilondon (Reply 14):
If you think that maybe an A380 or B777 should be flying into YYC then maybe we should find a market for YYC that would warrent such a large aircraft.

This might have been for the OP, but here is my quote in case you missed it.

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 12):
I think the only time Calgary will see the A380 is on a diversion.
 
brilondon
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:43 pm

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 15):

This might have been for the OP, but here is my quote in case you missed it.

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 12):
I think the only time Calgary will see the A380 is on a diversion.

I did not miss it. I was responding to the OP. I agree with your assessment on the A380. I don't even think that a diversion would ever get to YYC, as there are so few airlines flying the A380 any where near YYC, they would divirt to YVR before they would need to get to YYC, wouldn't they?
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:57 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 16):
I did not miss it. I was responding to the OP. I agree with your assessment on the A380. I don't even think that a diversion would ever get to YYC, as there are so few airlines flying the A380 any where near YYC, they would divirt to YVR before they would need to get to YYC, wouldn't they?

Actually, YYC and YEG are often used for diversion from and to Europe en route to and from California and to/from Asia to US east coast.

YVR is not convenient for such stops.
 
brilondon
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:47 pm

Could not the A380 land at any airport in an emergency as long as the runway is long enough? Do they need special equipment to handle the A380?
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:48 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 8):
while YUL has very little domestic market

Is YUL underserved and unstimulated or do the French Canadians just not travel to English Canada?

Quoting brilondon (Reply 14):
Why are you comparing YUL to YYC? They are 4 hours flight time apart. Over two time zones. Really doesn't make sense to draw any comparison to me or am I missing the point as usual?

flying time and time zones arent really an issue here. The question is is there more growth potential at YYC. Considering YYC is smaller then AUS or BNA, given their level of service Id say no. The reason I mentioned YUL, is because YYC and YUL jockey for 3rd place among Canada's busiest airports. YUL is 3x the population of YYC.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:08 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 19):
Is YUL underserved and unstimulated or do the French Canadians just not travel to English Canada?

Quebecois really don't travel in bulk to the ROC, excepting Ottawa and/or Toronto. Ottawa is likely a drive, Toronto has rail, air,and car access. Quebec destinations are a mix or air or car. Ergo, YUL has relatively fewer enplanements given its' size compared to YYC.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Fiedman
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:39 am

I know this is a little off topic but it does relate to the YYC expansion, first what is gonna happen to concourse C when the US airlines switch to the new transboarder concourse? and also where is Air Canada Jazz moving too when they close the walkway off concourse A?
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YVRLTN
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:15 am

I think the only chance for massive expansion at YYC is if WS go for longhaul and make a hub operation from YYC. Although it is their base, I feel that even WS would not use YYC as their main international gateway, though could well operate a couple of P2P routes. All pretty hypothetical at this point anyway.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 8):
YYC is huge on domestic

Because for half of the year its a right PITA to get there from anywhere, for example in summer here from YVR we would think about driving through, but in winter forget it. There is also very little loss of pax to US airports simply becuase it is too far north of the border with little of any real consequence immediately south of the border, compared to YVR, YUL or even YYZ.

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 4):
After the expansion is complete they will be A380 ready

YVR is A380 ready, with multi international airlines operating daily flights to the largest airports on the planet, yet no need for any A380 - so if YVR cant justify an A380, I cant see YYC doing so.

(That being said, I do believe YVR is a prime 380 summer route for BA and believe it will be a fairly early route for the big Speedbird - but you know the BA position in YYC of course. CX is the only other airline thay may be able to use it to YVR even though they have lost of lot of traffic to CZ and 3U, but of course they dont have them on order - and YYC doesnt have the Chinese, specifically HK, population YVR does).

Quoting SuperDash (Reply 12):
Energy gives Calgary an added air boost

No question this inflates the numbers passing through an airport representing a relatively small population base - I bet a decent percentage of these pax dont actually even go into Calgary itself other than maybe for a nights sleep.
Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:42 am

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 22):
Quoting SuperDash (Reply 12):Energy gives Calgary an added air boost
No question this inflates the numbers passing through an airport representing a relatively small population base - I bet a decent percentage of these pax dont actually even go into Calgary itself other than maybe for a nights sleep.

I think both YEG and YYC do a lot of oil and gas labourer shuttle flights. Some of these flightes depart (in the case of YEG) from the special terminal and the pax figures aren't added to the total pasenger and I presume tha may apply to YYC.

But either way, YYC's growth is now at a point where any new overseas based airline will have to think twice about launching new flights. They can just add new flights to existing Canadian destinations (YVR and YYZ) which would be much less risky than flying to YYC.
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:50 am

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 23):
I think both YEG and YYC do a lot of oil and gas labourer shuttle flights. Some of these flightes depart (in the case of YEG) from the special terminal and the pax figures aren't added to the total pasenger and I presume tha may apply to YYC.

Most airport authorities have figured out a way to count those passengers, in doing so boosting the airport passenger numbers.

Where there is a will, there is a way !

Thenoflyzone
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JoeCanuck
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:45 am

The Q's will let WS expand into the states and allow for more routes in Canada, too small to be profitable with the 737. I believe YYZ will also serve as a base for the Q's as well as major routing south, once the iron is sorted out.

Banff is a huge destination and getting bigger all the time, especially Asian and European tourists.

They really did need a new international terminal. Every time I flew to Europe from YYC, people were standing shoulder to shoulder waiting to board...the waiting areas are currently not nearly big enough.

I have no doubts YYC will keep with its steady growth for many years to come.
What the...?
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:15 am

YYC will always be limited by the fact that it doesn't have large cities to pull passengers from. The fact that Encore is going to operate potentially more point to point flights means bad news for YYC and its dominance of connecting pax from Winnipeg to Kelowna and from Regina to Comox and so on and so forth.

Take also the fact that aiports like YMM will soon have direct flights to the US and multiple dailies into YYZ. And don't think for a moment that other Western Canadian airports aren't lobbying hard to get more service and atrying to avoid YYC (YEG has been doing it and so does YWG).

The Calgary region is growing and that will be the bulk of the growth for YYC IMO.
 
boeingorbust
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:21 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 6):

Canada has a large number of Open Skies agreements, the EK/EY situation notwithstanding. Regarding the "failing carrier", with the recently resolved labour situation, AC's path forward is much clearer than it was 3-4 years ago. +$429M last quarter, not bad for a failing carrier.

I admit that AC is making a good turn around and has made some decent operational changes (some of which are ones made by the feds in recent aribitrary decisions during labour disputes). However they have a very long way to go which they have even admitted themselves. These earnings don't make up for the quarters of massive losses not to mention their mounting pension deficit which they are currently appealing to the feds for an extension for.

Also to those who are responding to me like I expect to see an A380 in YYC soon, I really don't. I doubt it'll be seen here for a looooooong time... maybe once Air Transat or Thomas Cook or another charter starts buying up used ones to fill it with seats for holiday flights. My topic was a discussion to hear opinions from others in the airline industry.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:12 am

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 26):
The fact that Encore is going to operate potentially more point to point flights means bad news for YYC and its dominance of connecting pax from Winnipeg to Kelowna and from Regina to Comox and so on and so forth.

No it doesn't. Going point to point adds total flight to WS...but it doesn't eliminate or reduce flights to YYC. WS is still going to feed international flights to Calgary...which will always be bigger internationally and domestically than Winnipeg or Edmonton.

The 737's will be using YYC as a hub for expanding their transborder operations.

Edmonton feeds the EIA and western Canada feeds YYC and YVR. The extra few minutes flight to Calgary instead of Edmonton, from northern Alberta is nothing. There is little love lost for the so called gateway to the north.

Passengers have spoken to the tune of 2 to 1 which airport they prefer. Sure, YEG will still grow but just like every other time the economy slows, YEG will lose its links first.

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 27):

Some airline will take their 380 into YYC on a promo flight or some such thing eventually. Too bad scheds won't happen in the near future but it would be fun. They should get their share of 787's and 777's.
What the...?
 
YYZatcboy
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:26 am

the biggest upside is having the paralells so we can reduce the atc delays. only problem will be the single crosswind runway when you try to cram two runways of arrivals onto one during a chinook. The new terminal is just a bonus.

lets hope they rip down the B/C pier and completely re build it.
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Fiedman
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:37 am

Quoting YYZatcboy (Reply 29):
lets hope they rip down the B/C pier and completely re build it.

never thought of that but that sounds like a great idea
Westjet - Canada's National Low-fare Airline
 
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rikkus67
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:09 am

Quoting Fiedman (Reply 21):
first what is gonna happen to concourse C when the US airlines switch to the new transboarder concourse? and also where is Air Canada Jazz moving too when they close the walkway off concourse A?

From what I have read, the original terminal will handle only domestic flights. I believe trans-border(US) and International flights will be all housed in the new terminal. Current trans-border area is better than originally designed, but still rather cramped during peak times.

Also, the expansions is being done during a time where they can afford to do so. The expansion was planned as long term capacity growth, rather than doing smaller incremental expansion....which has been the case since initially opening. My only hope is that the new terminal will be easily able to retrofit, if and when that need is there.

[Edited 2012-12-24 23:15:17]
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yenne09
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:10 pm

As a Montrealer who went many times to Calgary, I have to admit that Calgary is to Vancouver what Montreal is to Toronto.
But we have to admit that Calgary has a good potential of developpement. In 2011, for the first time in the history of our country, there are more people living in the western part of the country (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) than in eastern part (New-Brunswick, Newfoundland-and-Labrador, Nova-Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec). For Canada, this is a radical change. Also, in Calgary there are a lot of poeple coming from Asia so in my opinion, even if its not a very large city, economically speaking it is a developping city.
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:52 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 32):
In 2011, for the first time in the history of our country, there are more people living in the western part of the country (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) than in eastern part (New-Brunswick, Newfoundland-and-Labrador, Nova-Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec).

Ontario + Quebec = 21.5 million people.

population of Canada: 35 million.

hit reset....try again ma belle !

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2012-12-25 07:46:30]
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Thenoflyzone
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:59 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 26):
YYC will always be limited by the fact that it doesn't have large cities to pull passengers from.

That same thing "limiting" YYC, as you say, is also what makes sure Calgarians will always "fly" out of YYC.

Anyone who wants to leave Calgary has no choice but to fly out of the city's international airport. The same cannot be said about the 3 biggest cities in Canada, where rail, car and U.S airports are increasingly taking a bite out the passenger numbers of the local airports.

Put YYC in a geographical position similar to YVR, YYZ and YUL, and the passenger numbers will instantly go down.

Fact.

Thenoflyzone
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:05 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 34):
That same thing "limiting" YYC, as you say, is also what makes sure Calgarians will always "fly" out of YYC.

Anyone who wants to leave Calgary has no choice but to fly out of the city's international airport. The same cannot be said about the 3 biggest cities in Canada, where rail, car and U.S airports are increasingly taking a bite out the passenger numbers of the local airports.

Put YYC in a geographical position similar to YVR, YYZ and YUL, and the passenger numbers will instantly go down.

Fact.

Thenoflyzone

You obviously didn't get my point. YYC is no YYZ and no YUL in terms of international traffic and never will be. Calgary metro is 1.3 million. Southwestern Ontario has only one main airport - YYZ and and Quebec has one major airport YUL. Southwestern Ontario has 10 million in population while Quebec has 8 or 9 million. So how many more Calgarians you will need to reach the level that is required given that Calgary's traffic is dependent (whether you agree or not) on connecting pax from YEG, YXE, YQR, YMM, YLW, YQU, and so on and so forth. You will be kidding yourself if you think Calgary's 14 million pax are all Calgary based. More than 2 million pax in YYC's count originate or terminate in YEG.

So like I say, as western airports gain more flights, YYC will be losing dominance given that other metro areas are reaching a large enough critical mass.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:24 pm

Quoting yenne09 (Reply 32):
In 2011, for the first time in the history of our country, there are more people living in the western part of the country (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan) than in eastern part (New-Brunswick, Newfoundland-and-Labrador, Nova-Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec).

You are misreading the 2011 Canada census summary. They said that in 2011, for the first time ever, the population of the 4 western provinces exceeded the combined population of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. Ontario isn't part of that comparison as it accounts for 38.4% of Canada's population.

Regional population shares in % from 2011 census:

Ontario - 38.4%
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia - 30.7%
Quebec and Atlantic provinces - 30.6%
Territories - 0.3%
 
ElPistolero
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:30 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 6):
YYC cheerleaders should keep in mind that, while YYC is a major market in the Canadian view, in the world view it is at best a "small town". There will be some growth in international service for YYC, but it will never rival YVR,let alone YYZ.

Whether YYC is a small town or not is irrelevant. What really matters is the nature of the demographics, particularly the presence of expats and 1st/2nd generation immigrants, as well as concentration of wealth. Dubai is, after all, only double the size of Calgary.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 6):
Canada has a large number of Open Skies agreements, the EK/EY situation notwithstanding. Regarding the "failing carrier", with the recently resolved labour situation, AC's path forward is much clearer than it was 3-4 years ago. +$429M last quarter, not bad for a failing carrier.

You can add ET and TK and basically any major non-EU/US carrier except one or two Asians ones to the list of carriers that will probably never be allowed to fly to YYC. The problem, however, is that these airlines are generally doing better than the EU carriers that can serve YYC and have both the capacity and wherewithal to serve YYC while EU carriers are dealing with scarcer and scarcer resources by the day.

I think the fundamental point being lost on many here is that we will never know YYC's potential unless demand and supply, and not government barriers, are allowed to dictate the terms. Lets not forget that a route that LH considers not profitable enough might well be sufficiently profitable for a carrier like TK, with lower costs. Of course, until Canada changes its aviation policy, an airport like YYC will have its potential constrained to whatever a few EU airlines + AC think of it (oligopoly comes to mind).

Quoting flyyul (Reply 10):
YYC is not a sleeping giant other than a city that is very difficult to reach given its geographic location. EK has no interest in YYC - it was simply using Alberta/YYC has a ploy to get incremental landing rights to lucrative YYZ

With all due respect, YYC's potential as a market depends on the ability of an airline to make it work. Some can. Some can't.

FWIW, were you sitting in on the negotiations? How do you know it was a 'ploy'? Because the AC CEO said so? There are so many myths floating around on this issue that I have a hard time taking anyone associated with AC seriously on the EK bit. Just surprised that AC hasn't blamed the loss of Avios jobs on EK - after all, weren't those high-skilled, high paying jobs the type of jobs AC HQ claimed it was trying to save from EK?

Quoting flyyul (Reply 10):
As for Boeingandbust, may I remind him that Air Canada serves London, Frankfurt and Tokyo. How many other ciites in the USA with YYC pop.size have this kind of international reach?

Questionable logic. As I stated above, there are many variables that go into this, including the presence of expats, 1st and 2nd gen immigrants, wealth etc. Unless you compare YYC with a city of similar characteristics, this comparison is meaningless.

As for the rest, if AC can operate those 3 routes profitably, imagine the routes that other airlines, with lower costs/greater capacity could operate if they were allowed to fly to YYC. Lets not forget that a route that isn't profitable for AC or LH or BA could be perfectly worthwhile for another airline.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 11):
Dozens of airlines have unlimited rights to start service to YYC tomorrow, including every carrier based in the 27 EU countries (plus Switzerland, Norway and Iceland). QF could start service to YYC tomorrow and the same applies for many other carriers from virtually every continent where existing bilateral rights are either unused or not fully used.

The potential of the market will only be known if suppliers are free to enter the market. Pointing to a handful of airlines (Lets be real - TAROM, CSA etc can't fly to Canada even if they want to due to lack of appropriate aircraft, so stating "27" EU states has more than an element of smoke and mirrors obfuscation to it) and saying that their success or failure represents the potential of the market is very questionable. For all the Open Skies we do have, we also have restrictions on certain suppliers - profitable suppliers who have time and again stated a desire to get greater access to Canada (and no, I m not referring solely to the ME3).

All of these statements about Open Skies and the EU - they have absolutely no bearing on the potential of YYC as an aviation market - a reality that seems to be lost on most Canadians. YYC not a good market for LH =/= YYC not a good market in general. If LH can't make enough money of it, that is not a YYC problem, that is an LH problem. As long as airlines that want to serve YYC are kept out, we will never know the potential.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 11):
How many U.S. cities of similar population have scheduled transatlantic service on at least 12 airlines, including nonstop service to Europe, the Middle East, and Canada's only nonstop service to 2 countries in Africa (Morocco and Algeria)?

Another meaningless comparison. How many US cities of the same size have the same demographic characteristics as Montreal?

Just using mother tongue as a criteria:

Arabic - 126,865

South Asian - ~53,000 (breakout below)
Bengali - 10,240
Gujarati - 5,895
Hindi - 2,635
Punjabi - 11,025
Tamil - 13,145
Urdu - 9,615

Spanish - 111,070
Italian - 110,125
Greek - 38,860
German - 10,155
Vietnamese - 24,610
Tagalog - 13,280
Russian - 22,480
Romanian - 28,975
Portugese - 29,225
Polish - 13,530
Persian - 17,895
Mandarin - 10,180
Cantonese - 10,515
Chinese (unspecified) - 39,095

I don't know too many US cities in the same size range with a similar demographic makeup, not to mention the affinity to France (how much of YULs international traffic ends up in France?)

Its an incredibly diverse city that could probably sustain even more aviation traffic if it was allowed to. If you think about it, there's nearly 190,000 South Asians/South East Asians and Arabs. For that entire chunk, YUL has non-EU service only to ...Algiers, Doha, Casablanca and Amman. The rest have to be routed through the EU, where carriers are constrained by high operating costs, low profitability, high taxes, fleet constraints etc. YUL could easily handle more traffic from the likes of TK etc. Will it be allowed to? Probably not for another couple of years.

Quoting boeingorbust (Reply 27):
These earnings don't make up for the quarters of massive losses not to mention their mounting pension deficit which they are currently appealing to the feds for an extension for.



Given that AC's return to profitability has been fuelled in part by concessions by unions (including pay freezes/cuts), it stands to reason that the moment the airline becomes sustainably profitable, the unions will try to clawback some of their past cuts, especially in light of recent corporate behavior and outright antagonism towards unionized workers. Whether AC's upturn will last...I don't know.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 33):
hit reset....try again ma belle !

 

I believe YYC does have more potential than it is currently showing. But I believe that of virtually every international airport in Canada. What is letting Canada down is poor policies, not the potential of the 'market' in and of itself.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:36 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 17):
Quoting brilondon (Reply 16):
I did not miss it. I was responding to the OP. I agree with your assessment on the A380. I don't even think that a diversion would ever get to YYC, as there are so few airlines flying the A380 any where near YYC, they would divirt to YVR before they would need to get to YYC, wouldn't they?

Actually, YYC and YEG are often used for diversion from and to Europe en route to and from California and to/from Asia to US east coast.

YVR is not convenient for such stops.

Agree, YYC and YEG get far more diversions, usually for medical emergencies, than YVR, since both points are much closer to usual routes flown between between Europe and the U.S. west coast than YVR. YWG also gets quite a few diversions. YEG has already had at least one A380 diversion, a LH A380 en route FRA-SFO that diverted to YEG on October 21, 2012 due to a medical emergency.
http://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/...25&srchfldcd=3&txt=380&srchtype=1.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:30 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 7):
Here is something to consider. YUL has a population nearly 3x as high as YYC. Yet YYC and YUL are essentially tied in enplanements. Thus YUL is greatly underutlized and lots of traffic potential exists there, or YYC is greatly over-served and the market as a stimulated as it can get. Hard to see that YYC has lots of untapped potential, unless oil goes to $150 or more.

It's no so much city population but catchment area. Southern Alberta (south of Red Deer) has a population of about 1.7M which is the catchment area of YYC. YUL's catchment area is arguably the entire province of Quebec (excluding Hull) and perhaps YQB for shorthaul flights, which amounts to about 8M.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 11):
For a city Montreal's size, it has a very extensive range of international and domestic service. How many U.S. cities of similar population have scheduled transatlantic service on at least 12 airlines, including nonstop service to Europe, the Middle East, and Canada's only nonstop service to 2 countries in Africa (Morocco and Algeria)?

You have to figure in Montreal's (and Quebec's) extremely low per capital income (pci) compared to the rest of North America which absolutely puts downward pressure on pax numbers. Also, relatively low business activity, high taxes, the racist anti-English Bill 101 also serve to minimize traffic to/from YUL. IMO, the aforementioned demographic differences with Montreal have LESS of an impact on YUL traffic than its political and economic challenges.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 26):
The fact that Encore is going to operate potentially more point to point flights means bad news for YYC and its dominance of connecting pax from Winnipeg to Kelowna and from Regina to Comox and so on and so forth.

I disagree. Encore will add more point-to-point service but much of that will be thru YYC as smaller markets are added. Encore will serve to enhance YYC as a connecting hub which will grow YYC numbers.

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 26):
Take also the fact that aiports like YMM will soon have direct flights to the US and multiple dailies into YYZ. And don't think for a moment that other Western Canadian airports aren't lobbying hard to get more service and atrying to avoid YYC (YEG has been doing it and so does YWG).

YMM, YEG etc passenger numbers all depend on oil just like YYC's numbers. So all will grow together. Also, the 2 primary routes from YYM are to YYC & YEG (more than 50% of YMM's pax count) so the growth of YMM-YYC and YMM-YEG will be more important to growing YMM than adding more YYX or DEN, etc.

Regarding YMM, their new customs clearance facility opened on Dec 19th btw. Sunwing began 738 service to YMM the same day.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 36):
You are misreading the 2011 Canada census summary. They said that in 2011, for the first time ever, the population of the 4 western provinces exceeded the combined population of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. Ontario isn't part of that comparison as it accounts for 38.4% of Canada's population.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia - 30.7%
Quebec and Atlantic provinces - 30.6%

Unfortunately, Quebec and Atlantic still have more MP's than the West. More favouritism to Quebec......

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 37):
I have a hard time taking anyone associated with AC seriously on the EK bit.

Until AC starts generating profits, anything they say publicly will not be taken fully seriously. This extends to all AC employees who constantly tell us AC us JUST AROUND THE CORNER FROM GLORY which of course never happens.

Quoting ElPistolero (Reply 37):
For that entire chunk, YUL has non-EU service only to ...Algiers, Doha, Casablanca and Amman.

YYZ has nonstop service to TLV, IST, DXB and Abu Dhabi making YYZ perhaps a better Mid-East hub for Canada than YUL, esp given YYZ's superior hub.

Getting back to the thread topic, YYC is currently equal to YUL in terms of pax count, but the YYC will (likely) move firmly into 3rd for the following reasons:
1. The continued growth of oil related business in AB.
2. Continued population growth (due in part to oil).
3. The continued growth of Westjet (Canada's largest airline by profit and market capitalization).
4. Continued high PCI in Calgary and Alberta driving more disposable income towards travel.

YUL does not benefit from any of these factors and has been in long term (relative) decline in passenger traffic from decades dropping from 1st (in the early 60's) to its current 3rd place tie with YYC. YUL actually handles not much traffic than it did in 1975.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:50 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 39):
IMO, the aforementioned demographic differences with Montreal have LESS of an impact on YUL traffic than its political and economic challenges.

If the thousands of people who I'm told drive between Montreal and Burlington Plattsburgh to use U.S. LCCs originated their trips at YUL, I expect YUL's total passenger count would be higher than YYC where driving to nearby U.S. border points isn't an option.

YUL also has some unique direct services from Canada including the only service to Algeria (in fact the only service from North America as there's no U.S.-Algeria service), the only Canada-Morocco service, and the only nonstop service to GVA.
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:05 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 39):
Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 26):The fact that Encore is going to operate potentially more point to point flights means bad news for YYC and its dominance of connecting pax from Winnipeg to Kelowna and from Regina to Comox and so on and so forth.
I disagree. Encore will add more point-to-point service but much of that will be thru YYC as smaller markets are added. Encore will serve to enhance YYC as a connecting hub which will grow YYC numbers.

Much of Encore's flying will be through YYC. You are dreaming. Watch how many aircarft will be deployed out in Ontario and to US cities on the Eact coast. Again, you have to look at the real numbers. I live in the DC area and every day there's at least 20 flights between Toronto and the Baltimore/DC region. You can never be able to build a hub in YYC where you can utlizie such type of traffic from YYC to points in the US - well aside from Houston where the demand is primarily O&D traffic.

The point is that where would Encore deploy from YYC in the US - SEA and PDX and that's it. And if the Encore metals are going to free up the 737's to be deployed on new routes out of YYC, then you are going to end up with a major capacity dump that will either squeeze players out of the YYC market (such as the SLC flights with DL and the AA flights to DFW and even the AS flights to SEA).

I think that a strategy to route everyone through YYC on Encore will be ineffective in my opinion and will fore airports to lobby other airlines to fly direct and provide real incentives. Time will tell!!!

[Edited 2012-12-25 11:07:58]
 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:13 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 40):
YUL also has some unique direct services from Canada including the only service to Algeria (in fact the only service from North America as there's no U.S.-Algeria service), the only Canada-Morocco service, and the only nonstop service to GVA.

These are tiny, tiny markets catering mainly to low-yield ethnic traffic. Hence largely irrelevant, however unique (or quaint?) they may be.

More passengers fly from YYZ to each of YUL, YOW, EWR, ORD, LGA before 8am each day.

YUL's future (like YYZ's) is based on its past -- higth volume traffic to YYZ, LGA, YQB etc. In other words, the primary business markets. Quebec's poor PCI, high debt and poor business environment will keep these routes from growing.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
yenne09
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:21 pm

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 33):
Ontario + Quebec = 21.5 million people.

population of Canada: 35 million.

hit reset....try again ma belle !
Thenoflyzone

I think you argument is misplaced and not relevant. Please be kind with people.


Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 36):
You are misreading the 2011 Canada census summary. They said that in 2011, for the first time ever, the population of the 4 western provinces exceeded the combined population of the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. Ontario isn't part of that comparison as it accounts for 38.4% of Canada's population.

Regional population shares in % from 2011 census:

Ontario - 38.4%
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia - 30.7%
Quebec and Atlantic provinces - 30.6%
Territories - 0.3%

Even if I made some mistake, regarding the Census, there is a general trend, like in the US. The economy is more and more going to the west and it is surprising to se bilingual signs in Calgary hotels; English and mandarin. This wil not going down and eventually Calgary can become a second hub on the Pacific Rim. In the US LAX is the main hub but there is also Seattle, Portland, San Francisco and Oakland (I am not sure) with flights over the Pacific.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 7:50 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 41):
The point is that where would Encore deploy from YYC in the US - SEA and PDX and that's it.

With the Q400, WS will be able to add many smaller markets from YYC, such as Penticton, Castlegar, Brandon MB. Also, replace most of their current 73G frequencies to YMM, YPQ, YXE, YQR, YLW, YKA with more Q400's. For example, the 5 daily YYC-YXE 73G route could go to 8x daily Q400 to cater to the business traveller, or a mix of the 2. The 2x daily YYC-YKA 737 could become 4x daily Q400. The freed up 737's will add more frequencies to trunk routes or open new markets ideal for the 737. Thisd will absolutely boost YYC as a hub, and boost YYC pax count.

Similarly, in YYZ WS could replace some of the YYZ-LGA flights with the Q400 and add more frequency to other markets eg YYZ-YQB could go from 1x daily to 3x daily Q400, etc.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
ElPistolero
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:01 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 40):
YUL also has some unique direct services from Canada including the only service to Algeria (in fact the only service from North America as there's no U.S.-Algeria service), the only Canada-Morocco service, and the only nonstop service to GVA.

Air Algiers does not fly to YUL daily (I can't figure out how often it flies). That aside, I can't think of any US city with any sort of links to major francophonie countries like Morocco or Algeria. Certainly can't think of any US universities that offer Francophonie students a tuition rate that is what - 30-40% of what the average non-Quebecer in Canada pays?

The examples only serve to highlight the relative absence of non-EU carriers in YUL vis-a-vis other long haul carriers, especially in the context of the large concentration of immigrants from francohphonie and non-EU countries. Does Royal Air Maroc fly daily?

All of these destinations are meaningless platitudes, though they do admittedly show that Quebec's relationship with French speaking countries, particularly France and Switzerland, facilitate a lot more TATL traffic than your average American city (the ones that were, for whatever reason, being used to compare YUL to similar sized US airports to make it look like an overachiever, rather than the underachiever that it is). As for non-stop to Geneva, I see that UA (IAD, EWR) and LX (JFK) fly to the US from Geneva, presumably via ZUR?

[Edited 2012-12-25 12:05:21]
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:28 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 44):
With the Q400, WS will be able to add many smaller markets from YYC, such as Penticton, Castlegar, Brandon MB. Also, replace most of their current 73G frequencies to YMM, YPQ, YXE, YQR, YLW, YKA with more Q400's. For example, the 5 daily YYC-YXE 73G route could go to 8x daily Q400 to cater to the business traveller, or a mix of the 2. The 2x daily YYC-YKA 737 could become 4x daily Q400. The freed up 737's will add more frequencies to trunk routes or open new markets ideal for the 737. Thisd will absolutely boost YYC as a hub, and boost YYC pax count.

Similarly, in YYZ WS could replace some of the YYZ-LGA flights with the Q400 and add more frequency to other markets eg YYZ-YQB could go from 1x daily to 3x daily Q400, etc.

But the additional capacity out ot YYC must come at the expense of other airulines reducing capcity...Unless you think YYC will see a 20% increase each year.


Can you do the math....or you seem to think that adding new routes from YYC will automatically mean people will fly those planes. I mean something has to give. Just simple arithmitic.

I remember the days when YYZ used to get Olympic, Malev, Czech Airlines. They are now all gone. But they basically got replaced with the likes of EK, EY, TK and so on. There's no such thing called unlimited growth. And the same principles apply to your beloved YYC.

so when WS and Encore expand at YYC, AC and other airlines will need to shed capacity. Simple math. You try that for a change.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 9:51 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 46):
Can you do the math....or you seem to think that adding new routes from YYC will automatically mean people will fly those planes.

Well you clearly missed my math. 4x daily Q400's on (say) YYC-YKA is about the same capacity as the current 2x daily 736 service. 8 daily Q400's is about the same capacity as the 5x daily 736/73G capacity on YYC-YXE. So WS will not necessarily add much capacity to existing markets but the additional flights will generate more traffic as it will offer more flight options for business pax and connecting pax.

Also, look at WS's laod factor -- 80+%. Clearly many routes can handle more capacity.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
yegbey01
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:15 pm

^ You see that is not what I am referring to. As the Dash 8's handle regional traffic, where will WS send the 737's from YYC? Send more flights to PHX, LAS, FLL, etc....A bunch of low yielding routes that will sooner or later start to impact the WS bottom line. Unless you know something we don't.

I mean don't get me wrong...YYC is not at the doorsteps of India where there's ahuge untapped potential. There's only so much demand in Western Canada.
 
bakersdozen
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RE: Is YYC A Sleeping Giant?

Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:46 pm

Quoting yegbey01 (Reply 46):

Sounds like someone is having withdrawal symptoms from trying to stop his "yyc habit."

http://www.donovancreative.com/case-study/stop-the-calgary-habit/




I joke

[Edited 2012-12-25 14:47:19]

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