With the end of the BA/QF JV and the start of QFs venture to hub roo route pax via DXB rather than via SIN, what do people think BA will do next.

Will BA work on a new JV with MH to hub pax via KUL? In effect replacing SIN as the scissor hub. Doesn't seem to make much sense offering connections over SIN if there's a new 1W member hub down the road at KUL.

Could we see BA work with QR in EKs backyard on a new JV via DOH?

Or will BA simply work more informally within the 1W alliance with CX, QF and the new 1W members to get its customers to Oz/NZ destinations other than SYD?

Quite simple deliver all Australian passengers into Sydney and dump them for onward connections on still Oneworld partner QF.

BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years. Qatar and Malaysia can provide the SYD link or other Australian cities from their hubs.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2): BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years. Qatar and Malaysia can provide the SYD link or other Australian cities from their hubs.

Do tend to agree as a midium term strategy !

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 2): BA will probably stop flying to Sydney in a few years.

I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

Quoting VCy (Reply 4): I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

Australia is no longer a sacred cow.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5): Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

Quoting VCy,reply=6 : I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

BA would turn it over to a partner in a heartbeat if it made economic sense, just like QF did with EK.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 7): just like QF did with EK.

QF will still fly to LHR though, just via DXB.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5): Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it. Australia is no longer a sacred cow.

The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

Quoting VCy (Reply 8):

And using EK equipment. QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 10): QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

Previously the only European destinations with QF service (recently) were LHR and FRA. LHR will get both EK and QF. So, LHR is not going to lose QF's service to SYD, FRA will.

Quoting VCy (Reply 11): So, LHR is not going to lose QF's service to SYD, FRA will.

For now. Route dynamics are changing DAILY. If it can't be done nonstop in the future, pax will be handed over to partners at logical transfer points.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 12): For now. Route dynamics are changing DAILY.

Exactly! You never know what will happen in this industry. I mean who would of thought 5 years ago that QF and EK would enter such deep co operation? Maybe BA will pull out of SYD or maybe they ll expand to MEL as well.. Only time will show  

Quoting VCy (Reply 6): I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

LHR-SIN-SYD, with the 77W from the end of March 2013, will effectively tie up three longhaul aircraft. Three of BA's newest longhaul aircraft at that. BA is doing that because it's going to help it improve CASM on the route. But if BA thinks those three 77Ws could be employed elsewhere more profitably, and if it had an Asian partner that could serve the main Australian ports, then it would redeploy them.

History and prestige count for little today. If it did, BA would be using the other 14 weekly flights to Australia allowed to a British carrier until the UK-Oz bilateral. But it's about profit. BA dropped LHR-SIN-MEL because it could redeploy the aircraft used on the SIN-MEL sector to operate a round-trip to India after the UK-India bilateral was relaxed to allow more flights.

From late March 2013 BA is already cutting back on the number of routes it codeshares on with QF. I wouldn't be surprised that if in the first few months of 2013 BA announced plans for a new JV with one of its oneworld partners (or future partners): -

Qatar Airways - I believe it's been said in another thread that Qatar is currently limited to two Australian ports (Perth and Melbourne). A link-up with BA could give Qatar access to other markets if they could get a JV approved (Sydney on 77W, and possibly Brisbane on 77E, on BA via DOH).

Malaysia Airways - With two A380s operating KUL-LHR there is certainly plenty of seats that a BA/MH link-up could fill. BA would gain access to other key Australian ports via KUL. Question is whether BA would want to operate LHR-KUL in its own right, and if it did whether there would be an onward flight to SYD. I can't really see BA linking up with MH and not operating any flights itself though.

Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets. However, LHR-HKG-PER would be a back-track route. This is the option that would require the least additional resource for BA, and it could probably be easily done to operate a HKG-SYD tag vice the current SIN-SYD tag.

QF codeshares will likely continue from key Australian ports to onward destinations in Australia, but I can't see BA wanting to keep them up from Asian ports if it gets a new partner. It'll be interesting to see exactly what BA does.

Quoting VCy (Reply 6): I think it goes beyond that.. SYD is part of BA's history and it's also a matter of prestige. Especially as long as VS keeps flying there.

Prestige doesn't count for much in the new BA.... and BA have pulled out of routes that VS continue to fly - take MBJ as the example.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 10): And using EK equipment. QF to Europe is now going to be through EK in DXB

QF will still fly its own metal on 2 x daily A380 flights to LHR via DXB.

Quoting anstar (Reply 15): take MBJ as the example.

But they still serve the island via KIN

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 14): Qatar Airways - I believe it's been said in another thread that Qatar is currently limited to two Australian ports (Perth and Melbourne). A link-up with BA could give Qatar access to other markets if they could get a JV approved (Sydney on 77W, and possibly Brisbane on 77E, on BA via DOH). Malaysia Airways - With two A380s operating KUL-LHR there is certainly plenty of seats that a BA/MH link-up could fill. BA would gain access to other key Australian ports via KUL. Question is whether BA would want to operate LHR-KUL in its own right, and if it did whether there would be an onward flight to SYD. I can't really see BA linking up with MH and not operating any flights itself though. Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets. However, LHR-HKG-PER would be a back-track route. This is the option that would require the least additional resource for BA, and it could probably be easily done to operate a HKG-SYD tag vice the current SIN-SYD tag. QF codeshares will likely continue from key Australian ports to onward destinations in Australia, but I can't see BA wanting to keep them up from Asian ports if it gets a new partner. It'll be interesting to see exactly what BA does.

QR: Can't see them teaming up with QR for Aus - they don't want to give them any more of the Aus market than they currently and are wanting to get hold off, plus QR don't have much to offer flight wise themselves.

MH: BA know far too little about them at this stage although location wise - and network wise, they would be a sound partner for an Aus venture.

CX: Would be a good choice to partner with and their coverage of Aus is good.

QF: Might be worth continuing with a partnership with QF out of SIN, HKG - or heck.. DXB!

It's worth noting BA's dislike of wanting to codeshare on other carriers long-haul services, they only do it when they have to - and this is something i'm sure would be considered in any venture.

I don't see BA switching LHR-SIN-SYD to LHR-KUL-SYD. Perhaps if they ditch the SYD tag, they will fly LHR-KUL and hand pax over to MH for SYD/MEL/BNE/PER/ADL.

An agreement with CX seems unlikely, CX is quite independent and has more flights LHR-HKG than BA does. I see QR as the best chance, but QR has been quite vocal they will not fly to SYD until the curfew is lifted (which is never going to happen).

There are no indications of BA dropping the kangaroo route and matter of fact the route is receiving an equipment upgrade from an aged B744 to B77W from 31st of March 2013...

British Airways from 31MAR13 is changing operational aircraft to Australia, with the introduction of Boeing 777-300ER aircraft on daily London Heathrow – Singapore – Sydney service. Boeing 777 operation from Sydney begins from 02APR13.

http://airlineroute.net/2012/10/31/ba-syd-s13/

EK413

BA is waiting and watching. It's hard to know what's going to happen for them on this route past March, but my impression is that they are giving the route the best possible chance to succeed.

I think it's fair therefore to say that they want to stay in Australia. It would have been very easy to call it quits next year, but they have instead announced more competitive equipment and started advertising in Sydney (even if the ads themselves are rather boring and lacklustre).

I think QR is a strong option down the road -- they offer a connection to MEL and PER which BA can supplement with a service to SYD. DOH also massively expands their opportunities to get into a more Europe-Australia mind frame rather than the existing, and far less competitive, LHR-SYD mind frame.

It's also worth remembering that BA has stated that they don't think they can make the route work without a close partner. Initially it wounded like they were starting to justify a withdrawal from Australia, but it now seems likely to me that they are just starting to work on convincing the ACCC of the need for a JV down the track.

Either way, we'll know within 24 months. Either BA will crumble without QF and will be gone within a year or they will follow in QF's footsteps and find themselves a friend.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 19): Either way, we'll know within 24 months. Either BA will crumble without QF and will be gone within a year or they will follow in QF's footsteps and find themselves a friend.

As previously stated I'm sure a LHR-DOH-SYD service would work along side the QF LHR-DXB-SYD, MEL services EK413

Quoting VCy (Reply 4): I think that's impossible... No matter what BA will never leave the Australian market completely.

You might also had said a few years back that QF would never leave the UK....

It makes sense for BA to use their aircraft for routes that make the most money. AFAIK Aus has never brought in much cash for BA and requires several 744s/crews in simultaneous use, with lots of down time. Probably makes more sense in the short term to cut their losses and funnel passengers through a middle/far east partner....

Quoting nclmedic (Reply 21): You might also had said a few years back that QF would never leave the UK..

?????
QF still serve the UK, once daily from both SYD & MEL.
So I reallllly don't get your comment.

Gemuser

Why stick to one route when you can have many. The customer wants to choose so you end up with many options:

BA over SIN
QR over DOH
CX over HKG
MH over KUL

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9): The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties.

So when are BA going to stop flying to the US then?


It will come down to money at the end of the day, but if they were to pull out, then a tie up with MH would on the face of it seem most logic given their 1W status and their ability to serve other cities apart from SYD and MEL.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 24):

If QF couldn't make it work what makes you think BA will... & lets forget QR is a OW member too... & end of the day QR are in a far better financial position than MH...

EK413

I am told BA are very reluctant to leave SYD and every effort will be made to fix this. Indeed BA are now looking east again which is overdue IMHO

Quoting anstar (Reply 15):

That's one route BA pulled and VS pulled KIN at exactly the same time. Coincidence? Doubtful. VS are a side order here, they're not relevant. I was on VS200 this week and you could count on your fingers and toes who was going onto SYD from HKG.

Quoting EK413 (Reply 25): If QF couldn't make it work what makes you think BA will... & lets forget QR is a OW member too... & end of the day QR are in a far better financial position than MH...

I haven't necessarily said they would, but I think BA will keep SYD, in the same way QF have kept LHR, but beyond that as QF have shown, BA will need a bedfellow to help serve the ADL/PER/BNE/MEL markets too.

Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH. Apart from the night MotoGP race, there's not much to intace stopovers in DOH in the same way as BKK/SIN/HKG has in the past. Also (this is just my opinion), by selecting KUL and MH, you strengthen your (BA) presence in SE Asia, you maintain the Stopover traffic and you are in more direct competition with Star Alliance carriers such as SQ/TG or Skyteams China Southern for example. It also opens up some of the other smaller SE Asian markets perhaps with MH too, for BA.

Anyway I'm sure we'll find out before too long.

It would be good to see a similar situation with MH and BA. BA flies LHR-KUL-SYD with its own metal and with MH's, thus making it easier for passengers to connect from KUL to other Australian cities and AKL.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 28): Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH. Apart from the night MotoGP race, there's not much to intace stopovers in DOH in the same way as BKK/SIN/HKG has in the past. Also (this is just my opinion), by selecting KUL and MH, you strengthen your (BA) presence in SE Asia, you maintain the Stopover traffic and you are in more direct competition with Star Alliance carriers such as SQ/TG or Skyteams China Southern for example. It also opens up some of the other smaller SE Asian markets perhaps with MH too, for BA.

If Asia is the main point of focus, I'll select HKG over KUL... I'm not sure as to the relationship status between BA & CX...
CX has a very strong presence in Australia with multiple flights to SYD, MEL, BNE, ADL, PER and CNS... Plus BA have indicated HKG as a key route to operate their A380 with HKG presently served 3 x daily...

EK413

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 14): Cathay Pacific - Both carriers have onward codeshares from their respective hubs, including HKG-AKL for BA. Adding codeshares to ADL, MEL, SYD, BNE, CNS would certainly give BA access to the key Australian markets.

....the volumes for which will be supported soon by BA A380s on LHR - HKG.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 28): Personally I would have though a KUL stopover would be a more appealing route that DOH.

Agree for tourist traffic, KUL is an excellent centre for SE Asia flying via Air Asia as well as MH. For business less so.

BA has a crew base in Singapore, and these work the SIN-SYD rotation, cargo uplift out of Singapore is high - The 77W is ideal for pallets.

Deployment of the relatively small 77W fleet on this route may help the economics over the 744.

By the way BA/QF connections over Singapore remain available

To Perth remains just 2 hours stop over
To Adelaide 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - You arrive later in Adelaide than waiting in Singapore through)
To Melbourne 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - and arrive 2 hours later in Melbourne)
To Brisbane 4 hours (the pattern changing in Sydney as above - Shorter lay over but arrive later at destination)
To Cairns they route you through Sydney with 4 hour lay over.

From the perspective of a BA ticket holder routing over Singapore and OW partner nothing has changed

The options of shifting to KUL or DOH may weaken these elements

Again through i think the route is difficult to sustain mid term

I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere. But it shows commitment to the route.
I expect in future the big 3 from China to nibble away at market share on Lon- Australia traffic, visa restrictions on stop-overs already being eased and a very keen pricing policy in premium cabins.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 33): I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere. But it shows commitment to the route.

BA current 744 aircraft deployed on this route are F14 J52 W36 Y235 Total = 337

The 77W is F14 J56 W44 Y186 =300 - A reduction in non profit tourist (Those price sensitive will surely drift to MEB3/QF) yet 8 extra tourist plus but virtually no difference up front.

Down below boxes however have
77W- 44 containers
744 - 32 containers

Actually its a change to increase yields WITHOUT dramatically increasing the premium cabin.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 22): QF still serve the UK, once daily from both SYD & MEL. So I reallllly don't get your comment.

Indeed they still do, but (as many previous posters have alluded to), now their JSA with BA is ending, and they've recently tied up with EK, the likely future picture looks like they will pull out of the UK all together and simply codeshare. This is in addition to QF actually making noises near enough to this effect from their own press office....

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 32): By the way BA/QF connections over Singapore remain available To Perth remains just 2 hours stop over To Adelaide 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - You arrive later in Adelaide than waiting in Singapore through) To Melbourne 4 hours (Or via Sydney and Terminal change 2 hours - and arrive 2 hours later in Melbourne) To Brisbane 4 hours (the pattern changing in Sydney as above - Shorter lay over but arrive later at destination) To Cairns they route you through Sydney with 4 hour lay over.

They remain because they aren't rushing to get a new partner in place. A number of codeshares ex-SYD have already been dropped from March 2013 though. If BA links up with MH or CX, then I'd expect the onward options from SIN to be dropped as direct codeshares. I'd be surprised if QF was still codesharing with BA on flights to LHR from Asian ports after October 2013, and just codesharing on flights from LHR that partner EK doesn't cover.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 5): Why ? - BA are a PLC and if a routing isn't profitable (enough) they will pull it.

I think that may be a bit naive. There is also the political aspects of such a withdrawal. BA pulls out of Australia and the Ozzies rethink their devotion to the Commonwealth and monarchy. It's a highly symbolic route.

We can also see how important that route is to the Gulf carriers.

Quoting Babybus - I think that may be a bit naive. There is also the political aspects of such a withdrawal. BA pulls out of Australia and the Ozzies rethink their devotion to the Commonwealth and monarchy. It's a highly symbolic route.

That is nonsense. Are you seriously suggesting that an airline maintains a route to stop Australia leaving the Commonwealth? BA is in business to make money. If BA are maintaining the route solely for this purpose.... they need to .....wake up and coffee come mind.

Kiwinlondon

Quoting FlyCaledonian (Reply 36): They remain because they aren't rushing to get a new partner in place. A number of codeshares ex-SYD have already been dropped from March 2013 though. If BA links up with MH or CX, then I'd expect the onward options from SIN to be dropped as direct codeshares. I'd be surprised if QF was still codesharing with BA on flights to LHR from Asian ports after October 2013, and just codesharing on flights from LHR that partner EK doesn't cover.

Don't agree Qantas remains the key Oneworld partner in the region and they have indicated they intend to remain so !

They have no intention of abandoning the Oneworld club.

Cathay show little appetite for offering timed onward connections for BA ticket holders into Australia and just looking at the numbers - few passenger seem to choose routing over Hong Kong when offered on a single through flight !

Even if BA transfer BA15 over KUL the number of onward connections pales compared to Qantas/Jetstar out of Singapore and Sydney !

The status quo remains the best option for BA.

Quoting n729pa (Reply 24): Quoting jfk777 (Reply 9): The Empire is no more and The Queen is probably the last British monarch of Australia. BA flying or NOT would be consistent with cutting of royal ties. So when are BA going to stop flying to the US then?

Stop flying to the USA ? Really?

BA could fly 3 daily flights to any US east coast city with the 3 77W Sydney will need. And the USA is BA's most profitable route, No Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or ANA to worry about. But hey if tink BA should stop flying to the USA I would to see how many folks you can convince ?

This arguement that BA will maintain routes for prestige is unrealistic in this day and age.

I'm sure if a suitable partner came along BA would happily pull the route and better utilise its aircraft and crew. However at present Oz is still a pretty important market for BA and one which they wish to maintain a slice of. As soon as those days are no more I'm sure BA will drop it as quickly as they did every other route on its network which was unprofitable. The days of BA "flying the flag" are over its just another European based carrier looking to serve profitable markets!!!!

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 40): Stop flying to the USA ? Really? BA could fly 3 daily flights to any US east coast city with the 3 77W Sydney will need. And the USA is BA's most profitable route, No Emirates, Cathay, Singapore or ANA to worry about. But hey if tink BA should stop flying to the USA I would to see how many folks you can convince ?

I believe the post you responded to was a sarcastic response to the notion that a change in Australia's relationship with the British monarchy might affect air service between the countries. It was meant to point out, sarcastically, that the US cut ties with the UK a couple centuries ago and BA still deigns to fly there. I don't think it was meant as an actual commentary on the utilization rates of 777s. I'm wondering if I can use a few more words to explain this concept, but I don't think so, so cheers.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 39): Don't agree Qantas remains the key Oneworld partner in the region and they have indicated they intend to remain so ! They have no intention of abandoning the Oneworld club. Cathay show little appetite for offering timed onward connections for BA ticket holders into Australia and just looking at the numbers - few passenger seem to choose routing over Hong Kong when offered on a single through flight ! Even if BA transfer BA15 over KUL the number of onward connections pales compared to Qantas/Jetstar out of Singapore and Sydney !

Sorry, but at no point did I talk about QF leaving oneworld. What I was saying was that the BA/QF relationship is already being downsized when the JSA ends in March 2013. When the QF/EK tie-up was announced BA said it was going to explore its own options to replace the JSA, as Willie Walsh is quoted in the Daily Telegraph (among other places) on 07 October, "Asia has become a key market focus for IAG and we're talking to a number of airlines about alternative options for us." That same article talks about how IAG wants to find a "strategic" partner for BA, which implies that BA is looking at a new partner (or partners) to develop deeper links with, likely more than a simple codeshare.

As i said in my post you quoted, BA will keep codeshares with QF beyond SYD (and maybe other Australian ports), but some are already getting cut from March 2013. When a new partnership is unveiled it wouldn't surprise to see further cuts in the codeshares, but a number will remain. Just like QF will keep codeshares on a number of BA flights beyond LHR (But these are being reduced as the EK codeshares kick in).

The QF/BA relationship is going to be a lot looser in future. The key relationship for QF longhaul going West is with EK. BA will find its own strategic partner in Asia. The JSA served both carriers well (hell, remember the short-lived merger talk?) but things are moving on. QF has a role to play in oneworld with BA, but once BA gets its own deal (that is right for BA) lined up, it will likely be a lot less than what is going to be in place come March 2013.

Quoting nclmedic (Reply 35): the likely future picture looks like they will pull out of the UK all together and simply codeshare. This is in addition to QF actually making noises near enough to this effect from their own press office....

While I have long learned that the rule in aviation is "never say never", this one is waaaay out there! It is MOST unlikely to happen, the political repercussions in Australia alone would make even AJ think twice, then go and have a nice cuppa tea and a lie down.

What have you seen from the QF press office that even hints at this? I recall nothing, gotta link?

Gemuser

QF will not hesitate to withdraw from LHR if they can't make money there. They proved with SFO that prestige isn't enough to save a route these days, so I don't doubt that it would happen if it was the right thing to do.

That doesn't mean that I think it's a very likely scenario. In fact I think it's extremely unlikely. I suppose it's realistically possible that they might drop a flight to open up something else in Europe (or to continue FRA through DXB, perhaps), but they won't be leaving LHR any time soon. If they weren't confident in the route then they'd have dropped them by now.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 45):

The QF services will more than likely compliment the 5 x daily EK A380 services so I doubt QF plan on packing their bags so soon but as you said prestige isn't enough...

EK413

Quoting TC957 (Reply 33): I think it is a very brave move for BA to be tying 3 premium-heavy 77W's on the LHR-SYD run next summer when these aircraft can surely be used more profitably elsewhere.

I reckon the LHR-SIN is a seriously profitable route; from my experience flying it the loads are pretty high (I tried to book flights on SQ for early Jan - Y was sold out from 2nd-10th Jan even in November) and it certainly isn't cheap on SQ, BA or QF! The premium on flying direct over a stopover in the mid-east is usually >30%.

And BA, having shared just about everything with QF on the route is in an ideal position to judge the impact of QF pulling out.

Does anyone know the actual loads on the BA flight to SYD? And does anyone have any info on how VS is performing the route? (just out of curiosity)

My VS200 on Christmas Eve was full to HKG with barely anyone transiting on to SYD.