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Viscount724
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:56 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 93):
Air Pacific in the early 90s operated 73Gs (I think might have been the -800) NAN-HNL (and then on to YVR). NAN-HNL is 2748 nm, so easily enough range. HNL-YVR is an hour shorter at 2351nm.

FJ still operates the 738 NAN-HNL once a week. CO also operated the 738 on NAN-HNL for a while but dropped the route a year or so ago.
 
sweair
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:59 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 99):

I am not talking NB, I am talking about an all new size class. Stop thinking 100% 757 replacement, it will be something else, not an enlarged NB. 757+767+A332 replacement.

It is not ideal to haul 200 seats 10 hours in a 100t+ frame, that is all I am saying.

A NB will not be ideal and the 788 will not be ideal. Fuel will cost a lot more with time, every tonne will count.
 
planemaker
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:53 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 101):
Stop thinking 100% 757 replacement, it will be something else, not an enlarged NB. 757 767 A332 replacement.

First, I'm precisely NOT thinking 100% 757 replacement. There's obviously zero economic basis for such a program.

Second, just look at the facts for a specific 757 767 A332 replacement program - even just from existing OEM aircraft development programs - your proposed "program" would come after an A & B all-new NB program, let alone other industry dynamics. And as it is, the NEO and MAX will further erode (and continue to erode) the bottom end of that range while the 788 and A350 will erode the upper end. What you end up with is a very narrow niche that is then, obviously, further eroded by A & B's all-new NB programs.

Quoting sweair (Reply 101):
A NB will not be ideal and the 788 will not be ideal. Fuel will cost a lot more with time, every tonne will count.

In an ideal world you would have a bespoke aircraft for every route but that obviously just isn't possible. However, and this is an opinion (backed up with data), fuel will not cost a lot more with time... just the opposite. I belong to the same school as Adam Pilarski and opine that it is heading downward... Pilarski says: $40 a barrel, not $400
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
sweair
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 7:59 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 102):

Yeah $40 oil and Bernankenomics.. Have fun in lala land!
 
Aircellist
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:06 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 88):
I'm scratching my head.

How did this thread turn into a war between an aircraft that Boeing isn't making and an aircraft that Arbus hasn't built yet?

I was wondering exactly the same... Yet, we should know better... Every time the numbers 757 and 321 are mentioned in the same topic, it turns out that way.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
planemaker
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:13 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 103):
Yeah $40 oil and Bernankenomics.. Have fun in lala land!

You demand "respect" for your "opinion" that has been posited with no basis of fact and then turn around and show no respect for an opinion that is supported by facts. Very curious behaviour.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:32 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 97):
Stop being so stuck up please, we all have different opinions lets just respect that.

I agree, we all have different opinions, lets RESPECT that.

Quoting sweair (Reply 103):
Have fun in lala land!

Oh wait.............
 
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jaybird
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 12:07 am

Quoting ytz (Reply 90):
I would think that the better choice would be a bunch of ATR72s or Q400s.

Any sort of turbofan would be vast overkill for 200nm routes. They could also offer hourly or even semi-hourly frequencies between all the major airports in Hawaii.

Turboprops have not worked in Hawaii in the past for interisland travel. Given the choice Hawaii prefers jets. The other issue is baggage. Whatever the next generation of interisland planes is - it has to be able to carry all passengers and all baggage together on the same flight - that's been an issue with some of the carriers who have tried to take on Hawaiian, and Aloha previously.
 
gigneil
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:08 am

Quoting mffoda (Reply 84):
No... To the MAX, not the 757... But your Papa Westray point is cute...

I'm the one that made the original point, so I think I know what I meant  

I meant the 737MAX isn't even close to the range of the 757, much like the A321neo is not either. 4500nm is a lot of range.

NS
 
art
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:38 am

If the A321NEO can perform 90% of the missions the B757 is used for at much lower cost, it's not a perfect replacement but I would say it is a good replacement. How many B757's are used to fly routes that would not be possible with the shorter range A321NEO?
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:33 am

Quoting gigneil (Reply 108):
4500nm is a lot of range.

It is indeed, and certainly more than a 752 could ever do with a reasonable payload. Heck, even the A321neo can do 4150 nm with no payload.   

Once again:

 
gigneil
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:11 am

Wow I was way off on that one, wasn't I? What was I thinking?

NS
 
sweair
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:28 am

What killed the 757 was 9-11 and the economical downturn around 2001 and the lack of upgrade to a 1978 dated fame.

Had it been upgraded as the 737 was I am sure it would have sold more as it would gotten a new role, from short haul to long and thin, maybe they could have squeezed another 3-400nm range into it as well, say 4500nm instead of 4100.

The 752 was a 57t frame, engines are antique and the wing is less than stellar, but if it had been upgraded in these areas it would have been more efficient than flying a 788 on a 400nm route. The 753 was a bit too much but the 200 model was a perfect sized frame IMO. Maybe it could have gotten the MTOW of the 300?

ANA fly the 788 with below 200 seats, close to the numbers the old 752s fly TATL. 175 seats. Its just that the 788 has about 40t more structure. On short routes in Japan they concluded the old 752 beats the 788, but the 788 is about equal to the 767 on those routes.

Most hostility towards the 757 is because people hate NB on longer routes, its simple math, weight to carry a certain number of seats across a certain range, its hard to beat a 40t lighter frame even if its 30 years old.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:38 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 90):
I would think that the better choice would be a bunch of ATR72s or Q400s.

Any sort of turbofan would be vast overkill for 200nm routes.

Agreed. Due to the short routes, the ATR would be the more economical choice (lower purchase cost). But some passengers like jets and HA has done well with inter-island jets.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 102):
First, I'm precisely NOT thinking 100% 757 replacement. There's obviously zero economic basis for such a program.

Agreed. It will be derivatives. As I've said before, these aren't dueling pistols, there is no need for exactness.

Quoting sweair (Reply 112):
Most hostility towards the 757 is because people hate NB on longer routes, its simple math, weight to carry a certain number of seats across a certain range, its hard to beat a 40t lighter frame even if its 30 years old.

   WHich is why, when the NEO becomes TATL capable, it will be even more desired.

Lightsaber
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papatango
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:04 pm

What will Boeing do when Delta either places a order for new A321's or picks up some used ones?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:14 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 92):
I think the 767 was pretty close.

The 707-320B could carry ~140 in a mixed-class configuration and 189 in all-Y configuration. The 767 seats 181 in three-class configuration and up to 250 in all-Y configuration.

The 757 is much closer to the 707 in size and performance, although the 707 had longer range.

Similarly, there is no perfect replacement for the 747-100-400. The 77W is a bit smaller; the 748i is a bit bigger.

My point is that I'm not aware of many airframes that have been replaced perfectly by newer types. There is always a change in characteristics. Airlines adapt to these changes.

If there is never a 752 replacement, airlines will not collapse for lack of the type. The few TATL routes that use the 752 will either be flown at lower frequency on larger aircraft or dropped altogether in lieu of connecting services.
-Doc Lightning-

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817Dreamliiner
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:24 pm

Quoting papatango (Reply 114):
What will Boeing do when Delta either places a order for new A321's or picks up some used ones?

Delta have Ordered 100 737-900ER's from Boeing already, I doubt they'll need any A321s for now...
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
sweair
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:31 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 115):

You make the same mistake as all others, a derivative of the 752 will expand beyond TATL, it will be more capable. As the smallest WB worth buying in 15 years time will be a 100t+ 788, there is room for something between 48t A321 and 103t 788.

It will not be a shrink of 788 or A358. It will be something that is not in the market today, a medium body/medium range aircraft covering the market where the NB and the WB is less than ideal. Theoretically it will have a cross section above 12 feet but below 16. It will be maxed out at 5000nm and 225 seats or 2800nm and 240 seats.

Sort of a smaller A330-300, decent range to carry descent amount of seats. Where the NBs lack MTOW and cant have the OEW. And where the WBs have too much OEW. Look at the MAX/NEO, trying to make a midget normal sized creates pain.
 
papatango
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:38 pm

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 116):

As James Bond said never say never!
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:03 pm

Quoting papatango (Reply 118):
As James Bond said never say never!

I didnt say they would never order them...
Life is encrypted, you are modified, Like a virus in a lullaby, Artificial till the day you die, silly programme, You're corrupted
 
planemaker
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:20 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 112):
What killed the 757 was 9-11 and the economical downturn around 2001 and the lack of upgrade to a 1978 dated fame.

9/11 did not "kill" the 757. The 757 was already "a dead man walking" before 9/11. An "upgrade" would have made no difference because airlines had all the 757s they needed. There simply was no business case for an "upgrade."

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 115):
If there is never a 752 replacement, airlines will not collapse for lack of the type.

Yes, airlines will not collapse for lack of type because there is no need for a 752 replacement since the niche is so small that there is no business case to build one.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 115):
The few TATL routes that use the 752 will either be flown at lower frequency on larger aircraft or dropped altogether in lieu of connecting services.

You forget that the NEO will eventually be TATL capable (well before 757 retirement) so the few 757 TATL routes are a non-issue.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:10 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 112):
The 753 was a bit too much but the 200 model was a perfect sized frame IMO.

I think the 753 would have been more popular had it been introduced earlier in the 757 program. It's a good DC-10 short-to-midhaul replacement and probably would have been more popular with both American and European airlines had it been introduced about five to ten years earlier than it was. By the time it was introduced, the 757 program was starting to wind down and so airlines just weren't into it.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 120):
You forget that the NEO will eventually be TATL capable (well before 757 retirement) so the few 757 TATL routes are a non-issue.

The whole point between the 321NEO is that it is not quite as capable as the 757. Combined with a newer overall design and brand-spanking-new engines, that gives it a huge efficiency boost. Whether it can do TATL routes is a function of payload. Remember, adding range to an aircraft usually means that you need to add weight. Basic physics dictate that an aircraft becomes less efficient the shorter the route it flies as a percentage of max range.

Also, the payload-range charts are above. As you move to the rightward end of the chart, you see that the 757 carries ~5,000 more kg than the -321NEO for a given mission distance. From EWR to LHR at ~3500NM, the -321NEO carries ~17,500kg and the 752 carries ~22,500kg. That's a huge difference. That puts you on the steep part of the -NEO's payload-range chart and on the gentle part of the 757's curve. But EWR-LHR is one of the shortest nonstop TATL routes there is. By the time you want to fly to CDG, your payload is down to ~13,000kg. And remember, a good ~2000kg of payload are already used on crew, interior fittings, catering, drinking/wash/lav water, etc.

If the -NEO becomes TATL-capable, it will be due to rightward shift of the payload-range curve as the engines get more efficient, but it will never have quite the oomph of the 752.

Quoting sweair (Reply 117):
You make the same mistake as all others, a derivative of the 752 will expand beyond TATL, it will be more capable.

Then I am making the same mistake as every single airline in the world. And I promise that they know more about aviation than either you or I.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
AngMoh
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 12:01 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
Quoting Planemaker (Reply 120):
You forget that the NEO will eventually be TATL capable (well before 757 retirement) so the few 757 TATL routes are a non-issue.

The whole point between the 321NEO is that it is not quite as capable as the 757.

If there is no need for the capability, does it matter? Same for the Concorde: great capability, but the cost made this capability worthless and it has not be replaced and will never be replaced. Instead of a sexy supersonic jet, the passengers which used to take this option now fly 767/777/787/A330/A380 or a private business jet.

No airline would have bought the 757 for its TATL capability. They ended up in that role because TCONs could be done cheaper by 738s and TATL was an good alternative for deployment of these otherwise redundant frames. The real workhorses TATL are still the 767 and A330, soon to be joined by the 787.

The 757 will be replaced by A321OEO/NEO and 737-900ER/9-MAX only because it is too expensive. The perceived capability does not make any money for the airlines and the "need" for this capability will go away.
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:06 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 117):
You make the same mistake as all others, a derivative of the 752 will expand beyond TATL, it will be more capable. As the smallest WB worth buying in 15 years time will be a 100t+ 788, there is room for something between 48t A321 and 103t 788.

It will not be a shrink of 788 or A358. It will be something that is not in the market today, a medium body/medium range aircraft covering the market where the NB and the WB is less than ideal. Theoretically it will have a cross section above 12 feet but below 16. It will be maxed out at 5000nm and 225 seats or 2800nm and 240 seats.

Sort of a smaller A330-300, decent range to carry descent amount of seats. Where the NBs lack MTOW and cant have the OEW. And where the WBs have too much OEW. Look at the MAX/NEO, trying to make a midget normal sized creates pain.

Boeing and Airbus have their hands full with their current engineering projects. The a/c you envision has a narrow market and would require a clean sheet design. Given the offerings which will be fully developed by then, the market in this niche would be small.

Your a/c presumably would also be for long/thin routes for TATL type routes (transcon in the U.S. wouldn't be profitable given the other narrow bodies available are lighter). It won't have the range of the 787 series or the cargo capabilities which can really boost revenue for airlines.

Given all of that, it just doesn't seem likely that any aircraft maker would be willing to sink the billions of dollars needed to develop a niche a/c with a limited appeal.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 6:47 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 117):
a medium body/medium range aircraft covering the market where the NB and the WB is less than ideal.

That's the whole problem, finding an efficient medium-body cross section between 3-3 and 2-4-2. The 767 was an attempt, but has not been emulated since. Too much compromise.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
And remember, a good ~2000kg of payload are already used on crew, interior fittings, catering, drinking/wash/lav water, etc.

Those items are not considered payload; they are part of OEW.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
If the -NEO becomes TATL-capable, it will be due to rightward shift of the payload-range curve as the engines get more efficient

  

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
but it will never have quite the oomph of the 752.

Um, you lost me there... What is this 'oomph' you speak of, and why would airlines seek it?
 
Valcory
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:03 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 61):
Updated engines with full time FADEC gives you say another 2-3 % less fuel burn

The RB 211 were not FADEC. The PW 2037/2040 were FADEC actually one of the very first engines on commercial airplanes with FADEC.
long live the 757 I know its going to be sad day for me when i stop working on them, lots of great memory.
 
astuteman
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 10:17 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
Also, the payload-range charts are above. As you move to the rightward end of the chart, you see that the 757 carries ~5,000 more kg than the -321NEO for a given mission distance.

The 757 tanks enough fuel to have a max fuel range about 450Nm better than the NEO (for a P+W powered plane - the difference being about 300Nm for the R version).
The NEO obviously performs best in compariosn where it stays within its max fuel range.
The max fuel range of the A321NEO should be of the order of 3 350Nm to 3 400Nm with a 21t payload, tanking 23.4t fuel.

At 3 350Nm - 3 400Nm, the 757 according to Boeing's R/P (for the P+W powered 113t TOW plane) will be lifting about 23 tonnes, tanking 30t of fuel.
Now I suspect the Boeing document shows ranges sans winglets. In which case the fuel carried by the 757 should come down to c. 29 tonnes (still 24% higher than the NEO) and payload up to 24 tonnes (about 14% higher than the NEO)

For interest, the RR powered 757 doesn't fare as well, being about equal with winglets to the P+W powered 757 without.
i.e. at 3 350Nm - 3400Nm, 23 t payload (10% higher) and 30t fuel tanked (28% higher)

As a point of order on the chart, Airbus are quoting a nominal range of 3 650Nm for the A321NEO - that will be with an assumed 17t payload.
WM's chart appears to undersell the A321NEOa bit on that basis.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
If the -NEO becomes TATL-capable, it will be due to rightward shift of the payload-range curve as the engines get more efficient,

Agree

Rgds
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:26 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
Basic physics dictate that an aircraft becomes less efficient the shorter the route it flies as a percentage of max range.

That needs to be discussed as for any mission less than 3000nm, the A321NEO will be very competitive.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 121):
If the -NEO becomes TATL-capable, it will be due to rightward shift of the payload-range curve as the engines get more efficient, but it will never have quite the oomph of the 752.

I'm also hearing of airframe improvements. e.g., the wing root as well as a (small) MTOW increase. Note: I haven't heard anything about fuel other than the cargo bay tanks, but the A321NEO will certainly have room for those.

Quoting dtw9 (Reply 21):
Tell that to McDonnell-Douglas when the MD-11's SFC came in 7-8 percent higher than predicted for both P/W and GE engines.

Where did you get that number? The Pratt was 4% below spec while GE, whom was later, was something less (I do not recall the number). The MD-11 did miss fuel burn by about 8%, but much of that was due to the high wing loading. Douglas, with the help of NASA, helped cut their fuel burn and Pratt fixed their engines, but not before the airframe became an orphan.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 124):
That's the whole problem, finding an efficient medium-body cross section between 3-3 and 2-4-2. The 767 was an attempt, but has not been emulated since. Too much compromise.

Due to the need for cargo today, I don't think there is a step between 3-3 and 2-4-2. There will be a large jump in capacity unless another long narrowbody is built.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:20 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 122):
the passengers which used to take this option now fly 767/777/787/A330/A380 or a private business jet.

For BA, the pax that used to take the Concorde fly the A318!
 
Max Q
Posts: 8562
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RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:31 pm

Quoting Valcory (Reply 125):

The RB 211 were not FADEC.

I know, that was my point !
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
Max Q
Posts: 8562
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

RE: Seems The New A321NEO Is A Good 757 Replacement?

Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:35 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 115):


Quoting Max Q (Reply 92):
I think the 767 was pretty close.

The 707-320B could carry ~140 in a mixed-class configuration and 189 in all-Y configuration. The 767 seats 181 in three-class configuration and up to 250 in all-Y configuration.

The 757 is much closer to the 707 in size and performance, although the 707 had longer range.

The 762 was pretty close, and with it's fairly narrow fuselage unable to take LD3's side by side and its range performance it wasn't that different in class than the latest 707's and Dc8's.


Kind of academic I know.


The 757 was close in size but had nowhere near the range of a 707.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg

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