User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18273
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:08 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I do believe the 748i will get the job, but only because the availability is certainly better

You keep saying this without offering anything by way of support. IF CX ordered VLAs today, when would they get 748s vs A380s? Airbus has a number of orders on its books that I don't think will be delivered, so I suspect they could find reasonable delivery slots for a major new customer anyway.

Ordering VLAs is a 20 to 30-year decision - I don't believe availability will be the deciding factor.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7076
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:40 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
But a lot of that volume really is going for frequency. Part of what makes the 77W so popular is that it really can do both ends very well.

I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....  

Don't fall into the trap everyone else does of simplifying the market just to suit an argument....

Rgds
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18273
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:03 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 101):
I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....

Just the five. Which completely supports the frequency vs capacity argument. Oh wait...   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5044
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:16 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I wouldn't be so sure of that. A lot of factors, like slot restrictions, were creating an artificial situation where Quad VLAs had "safe" markets. But as those get pulled, it becomes clear that frequency really does rule the day

Two points:
1) What do you mean by "as those get pulled"? Can you give an example where slot restrictions have been lifted?
2) In your comments about frequency you forget to add in the effect of distance. While frequency is certainly important for shorter flights, say under 8-10 hours but beyond that the equation changes.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2613
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:28 am

Quoting abba (Reply 76):
Perhaps some nostalgia at Boeing also played a role in the offering of the i?

I have no reason to believe that the business case for the 747-8 program as a whole is any less sound than that of the A380. The fact of the 747-8i not selling as well as Boeing would have liked is not in and of itself evidence of a poor business decision to launch the 747-8 program (particularly the -8i), but rather that they had overestimated the sales performance of the 747-8i.

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years. The opportunity arose with the advent of the GEnx engines for Boeing to significantly update the 747 for the first time in 20 years. I do not believe they did so because of "nostalgia", but because there was a demand for it, and the technology became available with which Boeing could proceed to build it.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 80):
I see a lot of, indeed the bulk of, 77W's and A350-1000 sized "350 seaters" naturally replacing the 772/A340 sized "300 seaters", rather than the 744 per se.

That may be true at some airlines, but that is not necessarily the case at CX. While the 777-300ERs have indeed replaced A340-300s on some North Amercian routes, they have also replaced the 747-400s on others. For example, prior to the introduction of the 777-300ER in CX's fleet, HKG-YVR was operated by a 744 and a 343; while today that route is flown by 2 x 777-300ERs. 777-300ERs have also replaced 747-400s at LAX, SFO, and LHR, to name but a few.

The bulk of CX's 777-300ERs have been bought as 747-400 replacements. I recall that CX has said as much in the past.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
Is that a Paine Field add-on you have there? Looks neat.

I honestly have no idea. I just searched for a CX 747-8 Intercontinental in Google Image search and up it popped  
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
if CX goes for a Quad VLA (and I haven't seen anything to say the will for sure),


  

Quoted for emphasis. It is not yet a foregone conclusion that CX will order either the A380 or the 747-8. They're evaluating the feasibility of adding one, both, or neither of these aircraft types into their fleet.
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1855
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:54 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 74):

Its becoming a myth here that the 748 has such bad economics.

It's not that so much as the fact that whole package doesn't seem to fit many customers needs. The 77W is still selling like hotcakes, in contrast.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14648
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:22 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years.

Boeing has been offering larger 747s to airlines since the 1970s, it was not LH pushing them as you suggest.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
abba
Posts: 1385
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:08 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:26 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
I wouldn't be so sure of that. A lot of factors, like slot restrictions, were creating an artificial situation where Quad VLAs had "safe" markets. But as those get pulled, it becomes clear that frequency really does rule the day. If youw ant, look at what's happening in the NYC - LON market as a good example. This was dominated by 747s for quite a while, and while there still are a few present, namely with BA, the vast majority of seats going out on that one are indeed twins.


That is the classic example always used - however it is irrelevant in this context as LHR-NYC does not qualify as a long intercontinental route. Mid rage, is what is it - and therefore, you can still have higher frequency without having to either leave too early in the morning or have to arrive too late at night and in both cases not having connecting flights or access to the public transport system.

Relevant from NYC would be Hong Kong, Korea or Japan. From London it would not be US East but Vest Coast.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18273
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:44 am

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
If youw ant, look at what's happening in the NYC - LON market as a good example. This was dominated by 747s for quite a while, and while there still are a few present, namely with BA, the vast majority of seats going out on that one are indeed twins.

AA will be up-gauging to the 77W and BA to the A380 on that specific route. Frequency AND capacity again.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
CXfirst
Posts: 3021
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:45 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
Not a great question to ask, since Boeing has been pretty clear that they are holding to a minimum amount of profit per 748 sold. Boeing has said that they have been asked to part with 748s for "next to nothing" and have said no.

Is this as true today? I would think Boeing would love the positive PR of a quality carrier like CX choosing the 748i over the A388 (which for many would seem like a surprising move) especially after all the negative PR the 788 program has created. Right now, Boeing shares could do with a boost. However, Airbus won't let that happen too easily.

I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

Quoting flightsimer (Reply 86):
If you can't buy 767's do you want to explain then how 20 767-300Er's have been ordered in the last three years? Just because nobody is buying them doesn't mean they can't be built.

Still proves the point though. Airlines have in recent years bought larger widebodies, as evidenced by the lack of 767's sales and the fact that the new programs coming into fruition are seemingly larger than what they replace (787 v 767, A350 v A330/40, 748 v 744, 777-8/9X v 77W).

I would love to CX go with either. I do love the A380 and enjoy flying it, and would love to see CX order it. However, I see this as one of Boeing's last opportunities, if not the last, to get a quality carrier on-board, and we'll see how much they want the order. Perhaps this is the reason the decision is taking so long, CX might see value in an A380 future, but Boeing keeps making them reconsider.

-CXfirst
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:56 pm

Only SAA has really the need for a quad and smaller than a A380, I guess if even the wont go for the 748 after the A346 the 748i is about as dead as it can be.

The VLA market is tiny anyway, maybe the 748i is mostly to keep Airbus honest in pricing, I hope so anyway.
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3893
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:38 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 110):
maybe the 748i is mostly to keep Airbus honest in pricing

Pricing is always honest, but based on market circumstances.   And still it is up to the customers to decide if they will buy an airplane or not. In reverse you could say that the A380 forced Boeing to give up their decades long position with "dishonest" pricing on the B747 when there was no realistic alternative there.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:08 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:47 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):
I have no reason to believe that the business case for the 747-8 program as a whole is any less sound than that of the A380. The fact of the 747-8i not selling as well as Boeing would have liked is not in and of itself evidence of a poor business decision to launch the 747-8 program (particularly the -8i), but rather that they had overestimated the sales performance of the 747-8i.

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years. The opportunity arose with the advent of the GEnx engines for Boeing to significantly update the 747 for the first time in 20 years. I do not believe they did so because of "nostalgia", but because there was a demand for it, and the technology became available with which Boeing could proceed to build it.



I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point. Was there a demand - or was there not a demand for the 748i?
If Boeing saw a demand that was not there, how can that be the basis for a good business decision? (It is in my book
the very definition of how to make a bad business decision!).

Sorry - you have to straighten up your logic a great deal if you want to make any sense.

Personally, I still believe that 748 was a good idea because of the F. Whether the i-model makes sense I highly doubt. Selling nothing but launch models makes not much sense as they used to be heavy discounted.

As to the 380 it is in overall trouble beating the bank. Not because of a lack of demand (Airbus has already now sold what they estimated that they needed to sell in order for them to make the program break even) but because of a less than ideal program execution. However, such a bad fate has also hit others in the industry who's recent offerings will likely have to wait even longer than the 380 to beat the bank....'

The 380 share the same problems as the 787 - which in turn is of an entirely different nature than the problems facing the 748i.
 
trex8
Posts: 5381
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:55 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point. Was there a demand - or was there not a demand for the 748i?
If Boeing saw a demand that was not there, how can that be the basis for a good business decision? (It is in my book
the very definition of how to make a bad business decision!).

My two cents on this. B knew there would be demand for the 747-8F, doing the -8I was a reasonable decision given most of the investment for the -F was going to happen. It would also "steal" A380 sales and provide something with capacity between the 77W/A346 and A380. Stil too early to say how profitable or unprofitable the program will be but it wasn't a wild as... idea at the time.
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 3:09 pm

The i model is very close to the F model, a stretched upper deck, some passenger systems mostly of the 400 are added, a tail tank when that is fixed. Very few things differ the F from the i, a very small expense in total.

The 747 mostly enjoyed an advantage of not having big twins in its golden days, this is not the same market anymore. The A380 has competitors that the 747 did not have. Many were really bought for the range over capacity. That all changed with the A340 and later the 777s.

Big twins are far more flexible in the shortsighted global economy.

The future for the A380 will get even harder with the A351 entering the market.
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2613
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
I have read the above several times now - and I am simply not getting your point.

I apologise for the badly worded post.

The point I was trying to get at is simply that at the time of the program launch, Boeing's market research has shown that there was a high enough demand for the type for the program to be justified. That, to me, means that the decision to launch was entirely justifiable at the time, and thus I do not believe that they were guided by a sense of "nostalgia", as you suggest.

If Boeing's market research had shown that there was no interest in the type yet they chose to launch it anyway in the hope that the sales would magically materialise, then I'd call it a bad business decision. The fact that the market for the 747-8i didn't pan out as Boeing had predicted isn't prima facie evidence of bad decision making.

I think we should not look at these sorts of decisions with the benefit of hindsight. If we're going to assess whether Boeing made the right call to launch the 747-8, we should look at it from Boeing's point of view with the information they had at the time of the decision.

[Edited 2013-02-03 08:05:44]
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:22 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 100):
IF CX ordered VLAs today, when would they get 748s vs A380s?

747-8 Intercontinental delivery positions are evidently available this year.

QF deferred some 2014 deliveries to 2018-2022 and HX was said to be looking at them before they placed their order. Now that HX is considering canceling their A380 order due to poor market conditions, those slots might free up again (if HX was assigned them).



Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):
I would think Boeing would love the positive PR of a quality carrier like CX choosing the 748i over the A388 (which for many would seem like a surprising move) especially after all the negative PR the 788 program has created.

If CX chose it only because Boeing offered it for significantly less than Airbus was willing to offer an A380, I am not sure how much of a vote of confidence that is...

[Edited 2013-02-03 08:32:55]
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8348
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:35 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 116):
If CX chose it only because Boeing offered it for significantly less than Airbus was willing to offer an A380, I am not sure how much of a vote of confidence that is...

Its a multi billion dollar vote of confidence.

In my opinion, the reason why the A380 and 748i arent selling is because the
1) global economies are soft
2) cash on hand is critical in times of crisis
3) loans are increasingly expensive to fund.
4) nobody ever got fired ordering a 77W.

I don't buy this Boeing wont discount the aircraft anet myth.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:08 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:44 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 115):
The point I was trying to get at is simply that at the time of the program launch, Boeing's market research has shown that there was a high enough demand for the type for the program to be justified. That, to me, means that the decision to launch was entirely justifiable at the time, and thus I do not believe that they were guided by a sense of "nostalgia", as you suggest.



Now if that is what you are trying to say, then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature. Boeing seriously misjudged the demand for the 748i. They saw a demand that did not materialise (at least not yet). Whether they could have seen better - I shall not judge.

However, what Airbus didn't see was the problems they would face in the implementation of their program. They got the demand more or less right getting the number of orders they would need to get to break even as far as their original market forecast and business case indicated. In that sense, the 380 is playing the same ball game as the 787. Their business case was right - their program implementation wasn't. And that will cost them quite a few bucks. Claiming that there is no market for a VLA is as such plain nonsense.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 22680
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 101):
Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 99):
But a lot of that volume really is going for frequency. Part of what makes the 77W so popular is that it really can do both ends very well.

I'm not sure how many A380's EK send to LHR every day, but it's definitely more than 1.....

Don't fall into the trap everyone else does of simplifying the market just to suit an argument....

A question I find interesting is how many pax on those EK A380 LHR flights are new market entrants versus those who would have flown on AI/SQ/QF/CX/BA 744s in their heyday.

Another interesting question is how many people aren't on EK A380s to LHR because they are on EK's 777Ws to MAN.

Quoting zeke (Reply 106):
Quoting CXB77L (Reply 104):

LH in particular have been pushing Boeing to build a larger 747 for years.

Boeing has been offering larger 747s to airlines since the 1970s, it was not LH pushing them as you suggest.

Why can't it be both?

The early attempts didn't pan out because there wasn't enough demand (both actual and anticipated) for Boeing to be able to project a profit. By the time we get to the 748F/i time frame we have increased demand and lower development cost. The lower development cost comes from Boeing deciding to launch a 767 replacement and thus get a much more fuel efficient engine at a low development cost, which was not the case on all the earlier 747 derivatives. The increased demand indeed came via LH, which is shown by the fact that Boeing didn't launch the 748i till they had the LH order in hand.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 6:35 pm

I need to preface this by noting that I'm one of the biggest supporters of the A380 program and biggest detractors of the 747-8 on the forum. So the following comments are not presented with the intent of trying to make a case against the A380, but instead to argue against opinions I do not agree with.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
Now if that is what you are trying to say, then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature. Boeing seriously misjudged the demand for the 748i. They saw a demand that did not materialise (at least not yet). Whether they could have seen better - I shall not judge.

Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
They got the demand more or less right getting the number of orders they would need to get to break even as far as their original market forecast and business case indicated.

Sure, they could have broken even with the current sales if they'd executed perfectly to plan, but you don't invest ten figures with the intent to break even. They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.



Quoting abba (Reply 118):
In that sense, the 380 is playing the same ball game as the 787. Their business case was right - their program implementation wasn't.

The 747-8's business case has certainly been hurt by failures in program execution. If Airbus only needed 250 sales to break even on a ~9 billion Euro investment, you can be sure Boeing didn't need anywhere near that for what would have been a USD ~2 billion investment. Program delays have increased that cost by over 50% and likely closer to 100% and has pushed the program sufficiently into the black that Boeing right now does not believe they will break even on it (it's in a Forward Loss position in terms of the Program Accounting).
 
dc1030cf
Posts: 64
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2012 4:27 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 7:37 pm

Will this predicted upcoming order from Cathay be the "Significant new order" that John Leahy was saying ?
 
astuteman
Posts: 7076
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 7:56 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 119):
Another interesting question is how many people aren't on EK A380s to LHR because they are on EK's 777Ws to MAN.

Or Ek's A380's to MAN even .....   

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.

Er, scuse me. The A380's business case was based on a forecast of selling 750 over 20 years (which I understand to have been about 300 in the 1st decade and 450 in the 2nd), so I've no idea how "4 figures" got tossed into the equation.

They've certainly not hit the rate they projected up to now, but they're near enough for the programme and ramp up delays to have been at least as big, if not bigger, factor than underlying market demand.

I could argue they've had 10 years of "uninterrupted" sales, if you strip out about 3 years for the delays, and in that time sold 262 - just over 10% down on the 300 target for the 1st decade.

Rgds
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:18 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 122):
The A380's business case was based on a forecast of selling 750 over 20 years (which I understand to have been about 300 in the 1st decade and 450 in the 2nd), so I've no idea how "4 figures" got tossed into the equation.

Fair enough. Airbus consistently predicts ~1700 large aircraft sales in their 20 year forecasts so that is what I was going off of.

[Edited 2013-02-03 12:41:06]
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:20 pm

That vast cabin outfit must eat into profit for sure, even this far after EIS, I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5520
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:22 pm

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):

I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

I do not think a single purchase will have much impact on Boeing's credibility one way or the other. What happens with the 787 is far more important.

As to CX buying 748i's or A380's, I would say Boeing has the advantage of being able to offer quicker delivery and commonality with the 748F's that CX already has. Airbus, on the other hand, has a plane that has clearly been shown to be a superior passenger plane in every head to head competition so far. Much as I would like to see the 748i win this one, I suspect that they will go with the A380 for the same reasons as everyone else has. I have often said that I expect the A380 to win most of the pax VLA sales, while at the same time the 748F will win all of the VLA freighter sales. I do not think that the commonality issue will be enough to win the day for Boeing in this case, as it would really only apply to maintenance, as I doubt very much that crews are intermixed between pax and freight. CX is a large enough airline that the added expense of another type will be overcome by operational savings, IMHO.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15775
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:32 pm

A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.

Quoting na (Reply 3):
LHs current fleet is the best in the world.

Umm no. The 343 and 346 are very inefficient. Both need replacing. LH should have ordered the 77W (and they probably privately admit this).
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
User avatar
RayChuang
Posts: 8138
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:43 pm

I think in the end, commonality with the 747-8F will be why CX will buy the 747-8I to replace the 747-400 on their busiest routes. They will be supplemented by more 777-300ER's.

(Someone mentioned LH needing to replace the A340-300's. My guess is that LH is looking at trading their A343 fleet with a fleet of A350XWB-900's--slightly more cargo/pax capacity and over 8,000 nm range.)
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18273
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:51 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient.
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainy less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it. I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the 744 as "very inefficient".   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
pnwtraveler
Posts: 1074
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2007 2:12 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:22 pm

What so many people fail to understand is risk management. It is one thing to look at volumes of aircraft flying a particular route and then presuppose one larger aircraft can just be slotted in and take the place of two or more flights. The larger the aircraft the more difficult it is to simply move to another route when a particular route goes soft. Do you cancel flights leaving slots unused, and have your customers migrate to more convenient flights? Given a 4 hour wait for an A380 and flying in 30 minutes on a 77W, there is no question what most North American and other businessmen will choose. Anet doesn't represent a fair public opinion base because people on this site will make decisions very differently than the general flying public. Flying around a VLA during a soft period makes a huge hit on the bottom line.

CX will know how stable certain markets are. They will analyze what flexibility they can expect with loads. They will cost carefully how much an aircraft will be worth. For example when second hand EK A380's start flooding into the market, what happens to the resale value of the A380's in your fleet. They will look at what saving would result in putting B748i's in the fleet with commonality with the 748F's. There will be thousands of pages of analysis.

The whole VLA arena is far softer than particularly Airbus but also even Boeing with their lower expectations, had counted on. That is for now. It could be in another 5 or 10 years the whole market will be turned on its head and there will be VLA orders dropping right left and centre. Until then however the company has to do what makes sense for them and given the airline company failures and mergers recently, the market is anything but stable. Better to give up some potential profit and be secure as a company, than take high risks and bankrupt one.

CX will know exactly what risks they are taking with either aircraft. Including converting a 748i into a 748cf. I will not be surprised for them to say it is still not the right time to order a VLA.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7076
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:37 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 123):
Fair enough. Airbus consistently predicts ~1700 large aircraft sales in their 20 year forecasts so that is what I was going off of.

Again, Airbus's 2012 GMF shows a forecast of 1 332 "Large Aircraft".
Which by dint of being defined as 400 seats and above clearly includes competitors such as the 748i and prospective 777-9X, and thus clearly isn't and never was, intended to imply they were all A380's

To my knowledge they've never ever forecasted 1 700 x 400+ seaters in a 20 year period.

That Airbus have "SERIOUSLY misjudged demand for the A380" is another one of those A-net myths that just doesn't stand a decent scruitiny.

Have they "misjudged" it?
It's a FORECAST for christ's sake, not an exercise in 10 decimal places accuracy.

Can I suggest we move on?
The numerical misrepresentations are proving a tad too much for my bed-time patience after a long day.
My Bad. It will be better tomorrow  

Rgds
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:42 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 130):
Can I suggest we move on?

Yes, as the discussion is off-topic to the thread, anyway, and I really should be focusing on the new episode of Wonders of Life right now.  

[Edited 2013-02-03 13:45:21]
 
astuteman
Posts: 7076
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 131):
I really should be focusing on the new episode of Wonders of Life right now.

That sounds like top advice   

Rgds
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15775
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:52 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient.
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainy less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it.

And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
The whole VLA arena is far softer than particularly Airbus but also even Boeing with their lower expectations, had counted on. That is for now. It could be in another 5 or 10 years the whole market will be turned on its head and there will be VLA orders dropping right left and centre.

Good points. The question is whether the VLA market "downturn" is due to the world economy or a restructuring of the market prefering smaller aircraft with more frequencies (the latter being Boeing's argument)? Or a mix of the 2? Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 129):
I will not be surprised for them to say it is still not the right time to order a VLA.

Could be. As TK just seem to have decided by ordering more 77W and 333 disavowing their recent interest in a VLA.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
User avatar
sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:53 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 127):
My guess is that LH is looking at trading their A343 fleet with a fleet of A350XWB-900's--slightly more cargo/pax capacity and over 8,000 nm range.)

LH like all the European carriers have no use for more than about 6500nm . So I don't see a need for them to be buying range.
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:11 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:17 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 124):
I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..

Your loss : I bought at 13 euros on the 380 delays... it's now over 35...
 
Contrail designer
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3893
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:19 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
The 343 and 346 are very inefficient

Again this stupid and false A-net myth.  .

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
VERY inefficient? While the A346 is certainly less efficient than the 77W, it has better payload/range than the 744 and burns considerably less fuel doing it.

True. But those are facts, and not the popular myth.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

No, they made the perfect decision for their fleet based on their network and the type of loads they carry (mix passengers/cargo). And LH is one of the few profit-making airlines. Where many airlines who fly the B77W have made losses.

Now that fact has nothing to do with the planes themselves, but with the way the airline runs them and can fill them. Please stop these false A-net believes about LH and her fleet which are way off-topic anyway.

CX is a company quite comparable to LH (and KE). Many passengers, but also lots of cargo. And a mixed fleet of passengers airliners and freithers. So the choice they might be making must be viewed with a broader view then a focus on the A380 or the B748i alone.

By mixing up passenger and freighter capacities the deficit of the one airliner can be made up with another airliners strong points, and vice versa. I am sure the operational fleet planners at CX are quite busy making all kinds of such analysis and will provide the decision makers with the correct numbers and possibilities. And even that will not guarantee that CX will order either or both of these beautiful and mighty 4-holers. But I hope they will, and expect them to choose the A380 if they are going to order an aircraft from the VLA category.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:24 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

At the time LH ordered the A340-600, the 777-300ER was still in development as the "777-300X" and was not scheduled to EIS for a number of years after LH would take delivery of their first A340-600s.

[Edited 2013-02-03 14:26:07]
 
User avatar
anfromme
Posts: 883
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 5:58 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:50 pm

Quoting sweair (Reply 124):
That vast cabin outfit must eat into profit for sure, even this far after EIS, I see no reason to buy EADS stock because of the A380..

If you cared to look at how EADS stock has developed in the last year you would find that currently is actually a pretty bad point in time to buy anyway, given the stock is at (or near) an all-time high.
Which also means that most analysts and investors don't quite concur with your valuation of the company.

Quoting CXfirst (Reply 109):
I'm not saying Boeing give them away for free, but a purchase from CX could get much of the industry confident in Boeing again.

Boeing got LH as a launch customer, a well-respected carrier that hadn't placed any significant orders with Boeing (other than converting single-digit options) since 1989. A lot of people said this was an unexpected boost to the programme, and a lot of people - Boeing included - have kept saying that new 747-8i orders were imminent. Alas, that hasn't really happened. So far, they've sold fewer 747-8i in total to airline customers than Airbus sold A380s in each of the years 2007 and 2010...
My point being that I don't think that an order from CX would make the industry confident in the 747-8i - and by extension, nor do I think that CX will order the 747-8i to begin with. Make no mistake - the 747-8F is a tremendous freighter, but I don't see much space for the pax version of the 747-8. Particularly once Boeing launches the 777-9X, which everybody expects to happen, and for which CX would be a prime candidate.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.

I'm sure Boeing aim to win every 747-8i RFP they get.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346.

The 77W killed the A346, yes. But that still does not make the A346 very inefficient, and LH made no more of a bad fleet decision with it than they did with the 747-8i or DL and CO did with the 767-400ER (which got killed in the marketplace by the A330). I'm sure all of these planes work quite well for the airlines involved, even if there are more efficient airplanes out there that got a bigger marketshare.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

I don't agree with the last part of your statement. The fact that there are four types in a market segment that would fit the replacement of 747-400 does not automatically guarantee that all four of them are going to get significant orders.
Witness the MD-11, which played in the same category as the A343 and 772 and yet got almost 100 fewer orders for its pax version than even the A343, which wasn't quite Airbus' biggest seller, either.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Could be. As TK just seem to have decided by ordering more 77W and 333 disavowing their recent interest in a VLA.

Last I read, only two weeks ago, they are still in negotiations with Boeing and Airbus regarding a potential VLA order - although they have stated that they are going to order 77W/A330 (and probably A320neo/737MAX) first, before placing a any VLA order.
42
 
travelhound
Posts: 1932
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:27 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 112):
As to the 380 it is in overall trouble beating the bank. Not because of a lack of demand (Airbus has already now sold what they estimated that they needed to sell in order for them to make the program break even) but because of a less than ideal program execution. However, such a bad fate has also hit others in the industry who's recent offerings will likely have to wait even longer than the 380 to beat the bank....'

I think it's a fair argument to suggest the A380 program has not reached it's target sales goals and that's it's initial break even of 250 aircraft was somewhat optimistic.

On the same point the difference between a successful program could've had more to do with changing market conditions rather then optimistic forecasting.

With the current consolidation of the airline industry the fortunes of the A380 could change somewhat. Where two airlines flying the same route could not make the business case for the A380 work, the same two airlines acting as "partners" may find the A380 as a logical decision.

The market place is for ever changing and as such the success of the A380 and 748i will always be dependent on these conditions.

It will be interesting to see if CX order a VLA and if they do which one. It will give us a small glimpse of what we could expect in the future.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 117):
I don't buy this Boeing wont discount the aircraft anet myth.

Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane. There is some (maybe not solid) basis to this myth.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26711
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:30 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane.

Boeing is willing to discount - just not to the level some possible customers wanted in years past.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1855
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:10 am

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
And yet Airbus closed the A346 line due to a lack of orders.....while the 777 line (mostly 77W orders) is at 8.3/month. Whatever the attributes of the 346, the 77W killed it. Which suggests LH made a bad fleet decision with the 346. ... Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

There's your answer. The A34X was a good plane, but it arrived at the wrong time, just when engine technology made the 'super' twin viable. The difference was enough that you wouldn't buy a new one, but if you owned it you could still turn a profit till you didn't need it any more. Hence the 744's that are also still flying.

So it is with the A380 vs 748i vs 77W. The A380 has the edge if you want bigger, the 77W has the edge if you want smaller, both will retain their resale value better than the 748i.
 
User avatar
RayChuang
Posts: 8138
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:44 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 134):
LH like all the European carriers have no use for more than about 6500nm . So I don't see a need for them to be buying range.

True, but the lower fuel burn of the A350XWB-900 makes it attractive to LH to fly from FRA/MUC to long-range international destinations that need lesser passenger capacity. It would certainly make sense for LH to use the A359 on routes to eastern Asia that doesn't include NRT, ICN, PEK, HKG, and SIN.

While it would be nice for CX to get the A380-800, the sheer size of the plane and its non-commonality with other parts of the CX fleet could be an issue. Sure, it could be used on the HKG-LHR and HKG-LAX routes (maybe HKG-SFO eventually), but that may not justify buying the plane in the first place. The 747-8I would add some capacity on the HKG-SFO/LAX/LHR route, and also would share a lot of commonality with the 747-8F freighters now in CX service.

[Edited 2013-02-03 17:47:36]
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5520
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:11 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 137):
At the time LH ordered the A340-600, the 777-300ER was still in development as the "777-300X" and was not scheduled to EIS for a number of years after LH would take delivery of their first A340-600s.

What's more, nobody (including Boeing) had any idea at the time how good the 77W was going to be. I believe that when the 77W was under development the target was to beat the A346, but nobody believed that it would beat it by the margin that it actually did. LH was then caught in a bind; you don't just ditch two to three year old airliners; they still make money and LH had spent huge amounts of money to buy them. And adding another type would probably have cost more than the operational savings; hence their top-up order of A346's. How many of you have bought a new computer, only to have a much better or cheaper model come out a few months later? I still remember spending $1000 to get 32 meg of memory; I thought at the time that memory prices had reached a plateau, but I was wrong. Within a year I could have bought the same for $200. But I had already spent my money, and so I made the best of it; LH did the same.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
CXB77L
Posts: 2613
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:18 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 2:39 am

Quoting abba (Reply 118):
then you should also admit that the problems facing the 380 and the 748i in terms of ROI for their respective OEMs are of an entirely different nature.

I don't believe I have ever claimed otherwise.

Quoting abba (Reply 118):
Claiming that there is no market for a VLA is as such plain nonsense.

I don't think I've ever said that either. What I did say is that the market for quad engined VLAs is declining due to the advent of large long haul twins. I also said that there is no guarantee that CX will order either the A380 or the 747-8i. But that does not translate to "no market for a VLA". Evidently there is - just not a very big one.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 128):
I don't think I've ever heard anyone describe the 744 as "very inefficient".

In this day and age, it is very inefficient. CX are accelerating its retirement schedule and moved them off long haul North American and some European routes in favour of 777-300ERs.

[Edited 2013-02-03 18:41:08]
Boeing 777 fanboy
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15775
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:10 am

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 126):
A CX 748i order would a add a much needed boost to the program. Boeing must aim to win this order.


I'm sure Boeing aim to win every 747-8i RFP they get.

I mean perhaps even more aggressively than Boeing would otherwise, in order to snag a marquee customer for a slow selling aircraft.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
My point being that I don't think that an order from CX would make the industry confident in the 747-8i - and by extension, nor do I think that CX will order the 747-8i to begin with.

I disagree. CX is one of the world's most respected and watched carriers. It is a leader and innovator in many ways. A 748i order will boost confidence in the model.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 138):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 133):
Either way, there remain a large num of 744's in service all of which are aging and will need to be replaced. The market for this is likely a mix of the 77W, 748i, 359/10 and 388 which should result in signif orders for all types in time.

I don't agree with the last part of your statement. The fact that there are four types in a market segment that would fit the replacement of 747-400 does not automatically guarantee that all four of them are going to get significant orders.

Maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. Air traffic on a worldwide basis continues to grow and as the world economy shakes off the current recession and grows faster, today's 77W routes may warrant the 748i or 388 in 5-10 years, at which time hundreds of 744's will still need replacing. All WB and VLA models could benefit from this growth and replacement cycle.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
airlinebuilder
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:37 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:40 am

in conclusion, regardless if CX will purchase the B748i or the A380, at the end of the day we all have to accept the fact that the A380 is the new definition of a VLA and has remarkably set the benchmark.

So there will be only two types of VLA aircrafts the A380 and others aka the first being the A380 and in second place are all other aircraft.

P.S. never been an A380 fan but after objectively following studying and observing the aircraft since its EIS, what do you know.....I have been won over. ")
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8348
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:41 am

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
Boeing have made comments in the past stating they could have sold more 748i's, but haven't because they weren't willing to discount the plane.

That sounds like a convenient PR excuse for not selling the aircraft, whilst putting down the competition at the same time.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 140):
just not to the level some possible customers wanted in years past.

Stitch, you previously claimed that the 748i was a cheap (in comparison) enhancement to the 744 - why then is the 748 such bad value in the eyes of airlines (just looking at its sales record) if its development costs were so low.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
brons2
Posts: 2480
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2001 1:02 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:45 am

A388 all the way. The 748i is yesterday's widebody. 17.2" seats, no thanks.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:08 pm

RE: Cathay Pacific Evaluating A380 And 748i Again

Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Sure, they could have broken even with the current sales if they'd executed perfectly to plan, but you don't invest ten figures with the intent to break even. They'd also have pretty much delivered their backlog now so they'd have an idle FAL in TLS.



So you imagine that the plan for the 380 was that when they got the orders they needed for the program to break even then they would have closed their books for new orders (they should have done so by now if they had executed the program according to plan)? If you believe otherwise, your argument above makes no sense.

At their website, Airbus lists 262 orders for the 380 of which 97 are listed as delivered. That means that we have to wait more than 8 years with a production rate of 20 pa before we could get one...

Hardly an idle FAL....

I could even see an argument for Airbus to actually increase their production.

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/orders-deliveries/

Quoting Stitch (Reply 120):
Airbus has seriously misjudged the demand for the A380, which has not yet materialized anywhere near the four-figure level they had predicted.



We don't know for several reasons. One being that the backlog is far too long to know what the real demand might be. In the case of CX this might be the best selling argument for the 748i. Avability is the main challenge facing the 380 in competition with the 748i.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 139):
On the same point the difference between a successful program could've had more to do with changing market conditions rather then optimistic forecasting.


Market condition changes all the time. We are in a major economic crises right now where money are very difficult to borrow. That the 380 can be sold under the present conditions at all is actually rather amazing.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos