IAH-LHR - 138 Passengers On A 747?

Ratypus · Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:50 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-south-east-wales-21232826

Just seen this story on BBC - report states that a BA 747 travelling IAH-LHR landed for (minor) technical issue at Cardiff towards the end of the flight. Flight operated by a 744. Slightly surprised to see that the flight had only 138 passengers on board......

Seems very low?! Is this just because it was the Sunday-Monday red-eye rather than a full weekday? Or are loads on the BA flights out of IAH typically this low (and just high on J/F/cargo to make the economics work). Seems very strange - BA typically operate fairly near capacity in my experience; only time I have had a very empty 744 flight on BA was the old daytime LHR-NBO (which was scrapped after a while, when they realised that most of the high-yield passengers like to fly this route overnight).

Tdan · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:13 am

Average loads on BA out of IAH are around 60% for the full year based on HAS's traffic statistics. Average fares are very high as the premium cabins have very high paid LFs. Additionally, BA uses their lowest density 744s on the route. When CO flew into LGW, LFs were between 60-70% for the year, yet it was their most profitable route on an absolute basis. This is why you can never judge a route's financial performance based on LF alone. Huge local market that is essentially 50% F/C/J traffic.

Pellegrine · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:14 am

Quoting Tdan (Reply 1):
This is why you can never judge a route's financial performance based on LF alone. Huge local market that is essentially 50% F/C/J traffic.

Say it again.

Bobloblaw · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:19 am

Keep in mind its also February. Slowest month on the North Atlantic. I am surprised that BA doesn't use a 777. Even if LF is not a good proxy for profits, you should still use a lower cost plane and not haul a lot of dead weight. Unless the 744 is needed for cargo.

TC957 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:20 am

Sounds about right for a mid-winter typical loading on that route. Bet cargo was pretty full though.

nighthawk · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:35 am

Quoting Tdan (Reply 1):
Average loads on BA out of IAH are around 60% for the full year based on HAS's traffic statistics.

I'm surprised it's as low as 60%, a few colleagues have travelled to IAH recently, and every time i've looked at the loads they have been close to full. Although having said that, tonights flight is empty. February really must be a quiet time for this route!

bthebest · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:40 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 3):
Even if LF is not a good proxy for profits, you should still use a lower cost plane and not haul a lot of dead weight. Unless the 744 is needed for cargo.

If you have a plane to spare - I imagine all the 777s are being used on other routes that don't have the high F/J loads.

Ratypus · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:42 am

Yeah, thanks all - I did figure it must just be a route with very high yields - was still surprised to see it was quite as low as that - Y must have been nearly empty! Contrast with some of the other fairly high-yielding routes (HKG?) where they still manage to fill the Y cabin with cheap fares as well.

mutu · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:52 am

Dont forget BA send a daily 777 and 747 on this route, and UA have multiple dailies. Whilst there is a relatively large number of total seats to fill daily there is also plenty of premium traffic to make the profit for both of them even with the back lightly loaded during the week

vegas005 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:43 am

Just flew LH A380 IAH-FRA and the business class was about 55% full and even less in coach. made for a great flight!

juanpedro · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:43 am

I flew this route on a Tuesday night in late January - less than 130 pax on board according to the cabin service manager. Upstairs in J they were less than half full. Downstairs almost empty....

Thursday, Friday and Saturday flights are generally quite full (at least in J/F), in my experience.

ely747 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:51 am

Going back a couple weeks there were some comments in regards to 5 years since BA38 crash and to be honest I was actually surprised to find out there were only 152 pax on that 11hr flight. It seemed relatively low given the fact it was a direct service between London and Beijing. These days, it's a 744 service year round. Anyone who can comment on some LF or front of the aircraft occupancy to PEK?

raffik · Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:27 pm

Quoting ely747 (Reply 11):

Going back a couple weeks there were some comments in regards to 5 years since BA38 crash and to be honest I was actually surprised to find out there were only 152 pax on that 11hr flight

I suppose it depends on the cargo load and more importantly, how many F/J passengers there were of that 152 people.
The outbound flight could have gone full for all we know. Lots of factors to profitability

factsonly · Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:37 pm

If you think 138 pax. on a B747 is low, I can tell you that I once departed IAH with just 7 pax. on a B747-200 heading for MEX. There were ten cabin crew on-board to handle just 7 pax, they literally had to search the cabin to find them.

It was along time ago, but some may be able to guess the airline.

BA0197 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:43 pm

I can confirm from the BA station manager at IAH that BA has been profitable for the last 6 years and is one of BA's highest yeilding NA routes. Shell and BP both have extensive contracts on the routes in F and J class. This was the rational by putting the new 77W on the route with the new cabins in the back and ensure that BA has a better product that UA on the route. BA also has a Galleries First and Club at IAH

The route has a VERY high LF during the summer months (near 95%) as BA has quite the following in Houston. (They are the largest Foriegn Carrier at IAH).

Quoting raffik (Reply 12):
I suppose it depends on the cargo load and more importantly, how many F/J passengers there were of that 152 people.

Cargo is very good here at IAH. In addition to the 2 daily departures to LHR, BA also sends a 748F on Sunday to STN

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 3):
I am surprised that BA doesn't use a 777. Even if LF is not a good proxy for profits, you should still use a lower cost plane and not haul a lot of dead weight. Unless the 744 is needed for cargo.

BA will send the largest AC to where it is likely to get the largest return. Yeilds allow for the 744 and 77W to be used. During the summer the 77W changes to a 772 and the 744 as well. During the summer other routes need to 744 capacity I could presume.

vandenheuvel · Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:25 pm

Quoting vegas005 (Reply 9):
Just flew LH A380 IAH-FRA and the business class was about 55% full and even less in coach. made for a great flight!

Did this flight 3 weeks ago. Every seat was taken.

anstar · Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:38 pm

Most North America - Europe flights have shocking loads in February.

AAIL86 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:48 pm

When I worked at American, it was very common for flights to Europe in winter to depart with very low load factors. I remember seeing a manifest for a DFW-LHR flight that had only 7 people (3 in F, 2 in C 3 in Y) on the 777. At departure the FA's decided it was easier to move everyone to F and keep them there. People always ask well why not just cancel the flight in that case, but the reality is that its just not that simple. Usually the plane is needed downline.

The bottom line is that in a 365 day operation there are going to be flights with extreme differences in load factor. You really can't say any anything about the financial performance of a route based on a few outliers. In fact depending on the types of tickets issued for the flight, its very possible those 138 passengers turned a hefty profit for BA.
BA do extremely well on their Texas-London routes over the course of the year - even though there may some days that they don't do as well...

jayunited · Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:16 pm

You have to remember that it is the slow season and a lot of flights not just BA flights are going out with plenty of empty seats. The other day I was checking one of United's flights from IAH-LHR went out full in BusinessFirst all 50 seats were taken but out of 217 seats in coach only 69 were occupied. The same thing happens here in Chicago of the 3 flights UA has all 3 767's go out full in first and business class but I've seen coach go out with as few as 29 passengers out of 151 seats in coach. The airlines make up for this by increasing the amount of cargo that they ship. Cargo demand has not dropped so instead of canceling or reducing the number of frequencies because of the staggering number of empty seats in coach the airlines are using those empty seats to increase the amount of cargo they put on these planes. During the slow season Cargo in addition to premium customers filling premium cabins is what keeps a lot of international flights going over the Atlantic.

So if you are in coach you should definitely take advantage of all that room cause in a few months you will be begging to have an entire row and peace and quiet to yourself on a international flight.

iah59 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:17 pm

Wow that's pretty low pax there. Traffic will probably pick up in next 2 months or so.

bohica · Wed Feb 06, 2013 5:21 pm

Quoting bthebest (Reply 6):
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 3):
Even if LF is not a good proxy for profits, you should still use a lower cost plane and not haul a lot of dead weight. Unless the 744 is needed for cargo.

If you have a plane to spare - I imagine all the 777s are being used on other routes that don't have the high F/J loads.

On the flip-side there might not be anywhere else to send that 747.

BA0197 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 5:23 pm

Quoting IAH59 (Reply 19):
Wow that's pretty low pax there. Traffic will probably pick up in next 2 months or so.

Spring Break is the general turnaround point for pax LF.

lemonkitty · Wed Feb 06, 2013 5:43 pm

Quoting factsonly (Reply 13):
If you think 138 pax. on a B747 is low, I can tell you that I once departed IAH with just 7 pax. on a B747-200 heading for MEX. There were ten cabin crew on-board to handle just 7 pax, they literally had to search the cabin to find them.

It was along time ago, but some may be able to guess the airline.

Air France....

LK

brilondon · Wed Feb 06, 2013 5:59 pm

I usually travel through IAH on my way to LHR and I like the Y class as there are usually open seats in the back and I can stretch out across the four seats in the middle or get to have 3 seats to my self.

GSTBA · Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:31 pm

I have done about 15 (30 flights) round trips with BA on the IAH route.

I have only seen Y over 75% full On all but 3 of the 30 sectors . On nearly every flight both F and J have been full and WTP normally 80% full. That's is both on the 77W and Hi J 747. It is worth remembering that IAH is BA's 3rd highest earner for revenue across the network. With I believe only LOS and JFK making more.

About 80% of the pax in J and F fly out at the start of the working week and fly back before the weekend. Such a journey is not cheap Due to the Saturday night stay fare rule, that is still in place on many Longhaul routes industry wide.

The cheapest fare for a passenger flying out on a Tuesday and back on a Saturday is £6450/$9165 in Business and £10,747/$16,100 in F. With fares like that it is easy to see how it is one of the best performers

MAH4546 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:39 pm

It's February. Only full flights between the U.S. and Europe right now are going to Florida.

BostonBeau · Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:51 pm

I was on a TWA 747 red-eye once, LAX-BOS in the 1970's, and there were 12 of us passengers. The FAs were kind enough to stow armrests for us so that we could stretch out across 3 seats and sleep.

Maverick623 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:56 pm

Haven't been on an empty 747 (although I do see numbers on the PHX-LHR BA flight that are in the 150 range), but I was once on a regularly scheduled A321 PHL-PHX that had a whopping 12 passengers, 9 of which were non-revs.

Real money maker there...

LH707330 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:59 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 3):
Keep in mind its also February. Slowest month on the North Atlantic.

Why did I then still manage to spend >1k getting across? Maybe I need to book sooner next time.

Quoting BostonBeau (Reply 26):
I was on a TWA 747 red-eye once, LAX-BOS in the 1970's, and there were 12 of us passengers. The FAs were kind enough to stow armrests for us so that we could stretch out across 3 seats and sleep.

This is why many of the US carriers eventually dropped their 747s in the mid-70s.

AZA330 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:43 pm

I was on BA 197 on March 1st last year, the later of the two LHR-IAH daily flights. The 744 was just about empty, with not more than 80-90 people on board. Club was almost full both upstairs and downstairs, so I figured that was the way BA can afford these kinds of flights. However, does cargo help also?

BA0197 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 8:15 pm

Quoting AZA330 (Reply 29):
I was on BA 197 on March 1st last year, the later of the two LHR-IAH daily flights. The 744 was just about empty, with not more than 80-90 people on board. Club was almost full both upstairs and downstairs, so I figured that was the way BA can afford these kinds of flights. However, does cargo help also?

Yes, cargo is a big boost for this route.

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 28):
Why did I then still manage to spend >1k getting across? Maybe I need to book sooner next time.

BA fare class O starts as low as $837 on the IAH-LHR route with a 7 day purchase restriction and a SAT night stay. I just bought one for the week of the 18th this month. Flights are wide open. Lowest available fares are $902 to LHR in Y, 1576 in W, 4296 in J and 11475 in F. Of course with discounts (chase get 10 for example) the fares are VERY reasonable and great value for money.

roseflyer · Wed Feb 06, 2013 8:26 pm

I agree with most others. It's February. Other than Thailand and Southeast Asia, this is the least busy travel time of the year. Some airlines really cut back service, but BA isn't going to cut back too much on international routes.

iah59 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 8:54 pm

Why doesn't BA fly the 744 in the afternoon and use the 777 in the evening?

777222LR · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:19 pm

Midflight, ORD-LHR on a United 747-400 in April of 2011......75 passengers total.

brilondon · Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:36 pm

I have been on a flight with only 2 passengers on it. It was a SAAB 340 and the F/A sat with us for most of the flight. We all had to sit in the back of the aircraft due to weight issues and had to wait on board for the luggage to come off the aircraft. The three bags and us took about 5 minutes to clear customs. It was interesting to say the least.

davidho1985 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:02 am

I have been on a A330-200 flight from Shanghai to Hong Kong with only 25 passnegers.

ORDJOE · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:36 am

I was on an ORD-CDG in 2010, J was only half full, and Y had only about 12 pax (763 AA). This happens.
Keep in mind that full fare F from IAH-LHR can be 15-20K USD, so a full F cabin brings in almost as much cash as a nearly full Y cabin.

BA0197 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:06 am

BA197 left tonight with 13 in F, 52 in J, 12 in W and 56 in Y. 133 total. BA made money (quite a bit actually) keeping in mind that the F and J revenue alone is a lot.

fiscal · Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:30 am

In December I did the MAS a380 to LHR, and it had only 100+ economy passengers. Very nice, with lots of space for everyone.

Sadly for me it was only a one-off, as the homeward flight was full.

Ah well, it was nice while it lasted.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:25 am

Wow...

I once did LHR-FCO on a nearly empty flight. It was weird having a row of Y to oneself...
Is this route scheduled to go to the A380 for BA? It seems like a natural fit with 14F/97J/55W/303Y.

Then again, I'm amazed at those F load factors in February...

Quoting BA0197 (Reply 37):
BA197 left tonight with 13 in F, 52 in J, 12 in W and 56 in Y. 133 total. BA made money

777 or 747?
If 747,

13 of 14 F sold (93% LF, printing money)
52 of 70 J (74% LF, certainly a profit)
12 of 30 W (40% LF, not making money)
56 of 177 Y (32% LF, not making money)

Now if that was BA's 777-300ER, with 14/56/44/185. it would have been a flight absolutely printing money.
No other 777 has enough of the seats, in BA's configurations, for that load. Instead, it probably made a still decent profit.

Lightsaber

bmibaby737 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:31 am

What are the loads like to places like LAX from
LHR at this time of the year? Do they struggle much like IAH etc?

fcogafa · Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:44 am

Quoting GSTBA (Reply 24):
have been full and WTP normally 80% full. That's is both on the 77W and Hi J 747. It is worth remembering that IAH is BA's 3rd highest earner for revenue across the network. With I believe only LOS and JFK making more.

I wonder why Virgin haven't jumped on the LHR-IAH bandwagon if the revenue is so good, that is their usual way of working.

aaexecplat · Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:24 am

Load factor means little. If you work for an oil company and travel that kind of flight (time), you are traveling in J or F. That is part of what we are subsidizing at the pump.

laca773 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:11 pm

I'm sure this has been disclosed before, which other BA markets are in the top 10 in regards to excellent yields and hight demand for P & J? JFK......?

lightsaber · Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:24 pm

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 42):
Load factor means little. If you work for an oil company and travel that kind of flight (time), you are traveling in J or F. That is part of what we are subsidizing at the pump.

You do realize to get enough people to go to where the oil is they have to do that?!? Would you rather pay the oil prices that would happen if there was less exploration?

Oil workers often fly IAH-LHR-Russia or Africa or...

And when they arrive is when the high costs often start, due to security needs. So it is cheaper to have them arrive rested and ready to work than the alternative.

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 41):
I wonder why Virgin haven't jumped on the LHR-IAH bandwagon if the revenue is so good, that is their usual way of working.

Does VS have any high premium aircraft that would make a profit without Y demand? Looking online I saw 56 premium seats versus the 84 of BA, both on a 744. IMHO, the 28 fewer seats means BA would still make a profit and VS would struggle. Y+ and Y loads are too paltry to justify the route.

This is a perfect route for LH's 748i with 8F+92J. Ok, LH would need more F... (a classy type of problem)

Lightsaber

BA0197 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:27 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 39):
Is this route scheduled to go to the A380 for BA? It seems like a natural fit with 14F/97J/55W/303Y.

I certainly think it should be. I've posted my rational on the "Future of IAH Part 3" post.

Quoting IAH59 (Reply 32):
Why doesn't BA fly the 744 in the afternoon and use the 777 in the evening?

Why not though? I would think that the later arrival into LHR would reduce transit times for people continuing onto LOS, DME, SIN etc. The earlier departure is naturally suited to pax conecting within the UK and Europe. The late departure also allows for people who are finished with work on Friday to leave the US on the same day that night.

migair54 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:14 pm

i beat you all... a B777 flying from ORD to LHR with 5 pax on board.... must have been a boooooooring flight for cabin crew....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-passengers-from-US-to-London.html

Korean Air is flying from ICN to NBO with very low load factors, but full belly of cargo...

This is not the case, but some routes are "profitable" even if empty, because they are subsidize by govt or someone else....

I used to work for an airline that we had a flight that must depart even if empty both legs because tour operators, govt and hotels pay for all the empty seats to have the route alive because it was the only link from that island to mainland and some supplies plus pax need to come using it, so it that disappear they will be only relying on charters and no regular flying will be there.

iah59 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:47 pm

Quoting BA0197 (Reply 45):
Why not though? I would think that the later arrival into LHR would reduce transit times for people continuing onto LOS, DME, SIN etc. The earlier departure is naturally suited to pax conecting within the UK and Europe. The late departure also allows for people who are finished with work on Friday to leave the US on the same day that night.

I thought the afternoon flight BA194 would have more passengers so it would make sense to use the 744 then use the 777 in the evening when you have less passengers just saying though.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net