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MAH4546
Posts: 26737
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:05 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 49):
That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.

It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.
 
nutsaboutplanes
Posts: 545
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:05 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.



Stand by to be made a believer.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.



There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?



I think you get em all!
 
AA767400
Posts: 1897
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2001 2:04 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:14 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 46):
Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

I'd argue thats been accomplished already. All labor issues on AA's side have been resolved. US/HP FAs have reached an agreement, and the pilots are in a resolution. They want in all in place before merging.

The only merger that made sense, and was pretty uneventful was a combined DL/NW. UA/CO have yet to fully get their act together. Their SHARES issues, and labor contracts have yet to be ironed out. Not to mention the gutting of Mileage Plus. WN/FL is without issues either. With their rising cost, and logistics hiccups, their not immune either.

No merger is perfect, so lets not make this merger the worst combination to exist.
 
PHX787
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:20 am

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.
 
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reffado
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:23 am

Hoping to see a settlement soon. I have a small doubt though - won't the courts, along with say, Star, have an issue with OneWorld now holding the biggest South American AND North American carriers?
 
ridgid727
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:27 am

A few years back, they were saying PHX was #11 in the US for O & D traffic.


https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/3903424/
 
commavia
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:28 am

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

I doubt either would stay "intact," as in "no change," but both would definitely still be hubs. The key with all of US' hubs - but in particular CLT and PHX - is that their economics are to a certain extent built upon US' low costs, particularly labor. Once that goes away, which would happen overnight once the AA-US union MOUs kicked in, it would instantly render some portion of the flying at all of those hubs unprofitable.

Some AA hubs (in particular ORD) are in the same boat, but in the opposite direction - they have been struggling for years because the costs were too high, not artificially inflated because the costs were so low.

Nonetheless, CLT and PHL are both exceptional hubs, and hubs that AA could not ever replicate on its own anywhere else. Both have immense value, and would no doubt remain very large and vibrant hubs if a merger occurs.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
PHX is the one hub that has been debatable.

I don't see it as debatable. PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.


Absolutely. A combined "new AA" would be a huge force along the east coast, with hubs well placed from NYC to MIA, with PHL, DCA and CLT in between. AA would be either #1 or #2 in 3 of the 4 major northeast business markets, and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC (AA with a hub in PHL need not carry as many people through NYC as DL and UA, both of whom rely on it as their primary northeast and Atlantic hub).

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

That has been my position from the day Parker cut the deals with the AA unions. I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 33):
LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US

Well too late then.

The thing that has largely been responsible for making money at US has been bankruptcy-era labor contracts that have allowed them to maintain lower fares, and capacity, that would never be sustainable at the costs of their post-bankruptcy and post-merger peers.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):
It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

        

Absolutely. So many seem to focus on the inevitable reductions that are in store for PHX if AA and US merger, and the comparison/relationship to LAX - perhaps because of the geographic proximity. But the reality is that the overlap between PHX and other hubs in a combined network is far more pronounced with DFW than with LAX.

I still contend that if a merger takes place, PHX will be in for substantial reductions in flights and capacity, and that most of that capacity will in fact not be backfilled or shifted to another hub, but simply eliminated altogether to account for the higher combined costs of a merged airline. However, of the flights and capacity that would be shifted to other hubs, I think it's clear that DFW stands to gain the most from that. It handles most of the same traffic flows, has plenty of room to grow, and is a market AA just about dominates. Beyond that, LAX may stand to gain a little bit - not much - of incremental growth, probably from maybe 1-2 extra flights to Hawaii and/or some minor additional domestic flying (like PIT). And ORD might actually pick up some of the displaced PHX capacity as well - connections to/from the Pacific Northwest that US now forces over PHX could in many cases be better handled - at least geographically - over ORD.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.
LGA is one of only two airports in the entire combined system (the other being LAX) where combining gate space would pose a bit of a challenge.

Quoting panam330 (Reply 45):
ORD is a shell of its former self

   A shell that is still one of the largest hubs in the U.S.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

[Edited 2013-02-06 19:59:37]
 
Raventech
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:40 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):

I think that's a little optimistic, If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.
 
drmlnr1
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:41 am

What will happen to the A350's US has on order?? I just hope that if this is indeed true, the combined carrier can make money. DCA will now have a larger op for AA. Will AA keep the DCA-SAN route????
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 380
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:45 am

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake
 
allegiantflyer
Posts: 380
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:59 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:46 am

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://www.workforce.az.gov/population-projections.aspx

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake
 
rfields5421
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:48 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News,

WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

However, as noted, WFAA and the DMN both have very good inside source at AA.

The basic news is that the AMR board is going to have an unpreviously scheduled meeting on Monday.

The unions appear to be getting one of their goals - Tom Horton out of the decision making, and most of his team in the executive suites.

However, will that be enough to keep them happy in the long run.

I cannot imagine what a mess merging the America West, the US Airways, the American Airlines and the American Eagle seniority lists for pilots will become.
 
usairways85
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 3:53 am

I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?
 
dw9115
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:05 am

US Airways credit card with Barclay's is horrible! I really hope they stay with Americans deal with Citi.
 
commavia
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:07 am

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 64):
WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

First off, they aren't the same company. Used to be, aren't anymore. Second, I realize they work closely together. I was simply making the point that this was being reported by multiple different sources, albeit likely all of them were getting their information from the same single leaker, with his own agenda.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

I agree in general with the premise that if AA and US do merge, the combined carrier stands to gain in the NYC market overall. I'm not sure if it will be a "big" gain, net-net, but I think it would be positive overall.

As to how, there are a few things. First, the combined carrier would be a huge slot holder at New York's capacity-constrained airports, particular JFK and LGA. AA is still sitting on a huge pool of peak-time slots at JFK, and AA and US combined at LGA amount to about 1/3 of all departures. That's big.

The second issue is what they use those slots for. Today, AA's utilization of its precious, prime-time NYC slots - particularly at JFK, but also to some extent LGA - is suboptimal because of the competitive position AA is in. If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

It's true that AA has struggled with some of its network out of JFK in recent years. But that was largely because AA has been fighting an uphill battle with uncompetitive costs, and because AA was using its JFK slots suboptimally (albeit the best AA at the time could do). With the options opened up through a merge, AA could use its slots at both JFK and LGA better. Let DL and B6 fight over the JFK-Florida market, and using JFK or LGA as a major connecting point - I doubt AA wants that anyway. AA should be focusing on linking LGA to major U.S. business O&D markets, and JFK with major longhaul international and transcon business O&D markets. A merger would facilitate that.
 
boeingpride800
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:09 am

Merger or no merger, what I'm hoping for is a more competitive AA and a changed management. This company needs to have happier employees who are completely on board with the "new" AA before it is ever to actually take flight.

Wishing the best for this company.
 
BarryH
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:11 am

Not to be a wet blanket, but Bloomberg's coverage seems the most rationale. And assigning a value to US' share of the combined company and who runs it aren't trivial loose ends. We're all well aware of what certain debt holders and employee groups want to see as an outcome but for the most part it's been bluster. And those that have been most vocal don't (singularly) hold enough sway to ensure an outcome. Fun times ahead.

No decisions have been made on how ownership would be split between creditors of American parent AMR Corp. and US Airways investors or who would lead the company, said four of the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

A deal would create the world’s largest airline, giving American the scale to compete with rivals that surpassed it in size amid a wave of consolidation during the past decade. The possible merger gained support late last month from a group holding $1.5 billion in unsecured AMR debt, people familiar with the matter said then.

The bondholders are pushing for a deal by Feb. 15, the expiration date for a non-disclosure agreement they signed with the two airlines. Talks may still falter, and there is no guarantee of an agreement by that date, the people said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...o-intensify-as-deadline-looms.html

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

If those businesses are call centers or regional branches of companies headquartered elsewhere the impact on air travel won't be that significant. And you can't unring a bell. LCC competition in PHX is fierce and the resulting yield pressure is what makes PHX unattractive to network carriers.
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:22 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 53):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

The irony of the whole situation is that if PHX gets cut (although I doubt it will be reduced to spoke size entirely) then that basically scales down the last of the HP "hub" assets that US acquired in the merger.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Or UA, for that matter. That is why despite all of my frustration as a UA elite flier, I am weary of jumping ship to AA (here at ORD) in fear that I may have to go through this all again.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA.

Probably will play a similar role to CLE in the merged UA network?
 
Gemuser
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:23 am

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

Perhaps a slightly off topic slant, but can I ask where is the water coming from to support all those people. My understanding is that the Colorado River system is pretty well maxed out already.

As an Australian water is always of interest in any discussion of population growth.

Gemuser
 
deltairlines
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:29 am

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Agree with this - Southwest will likely be the big winner in Phoenix after this. I wouldn't expect two concourses, but one would seem reasonable. Between that and increasing their local passenger mix (which would improve yields) it would be a good gain.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.

Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now. Airways right now has about 260 flights a day, going up to 290 when the Flex Flight operation is in place. You have five banks in each direction; you'd likely see this cut down to three banks in each direction, peaking out at about 125-150 flights/day. I tend to think the flex flights would be gone post-merger, with redeyes left to Charlotte, Philadelphia, Miami, Kennedy, O'Hare and maybe Boston (which I doubt, as US can't even keep a year round redeye there).

Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Now, I expect a decent AA presence in PHX to remain. There is a market there that will value the First Class, lounges, frequent flyer perks, etc. that American offers and Southwest will not. It just becomes a matter of right-sizing the market to find the balance between keeping these benefits and finding profitability. Phoenix, at least unlike some of the midwestern cities such as CVG, PIT, and STL, has a lot more potential lying ahead of it - it's still struggling with the weight of the Great Recession, but I'd say the potential is there (and I'd love to see it - I loved my year living in Scottsdale).
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:35 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):
Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?

Penn Central?
 
Raventech
Posts: 208
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:25 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:35 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 71):

Another major source is a large underground water table. In Peoria (15-20 mins NW of PHX), the major source IIRC is well water with partial replenishment from the sanitary system cleaning the used water and discharging back into the ground.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):

Just from looking at the wikipedia of the airport then more/less. Maybe a little more mainline especially given the large maintenance base, but that can also move out as well (though will probably be a quite a while down the road based on the size).
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:40 am

Quoting Drmlnr1 (Reply 61):
What will happen to the A350's US has on order??

I imagine it would be cancelled in favour of some additional A32Xneos.

American has orders and options for up to 100 787s, with 42 of these being "firm" (meaning having slots assigned for delivery), so having 10 A350s makes no sense whatsoever for the new AA.
 
rwy04lga
Posts: 1976
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:21 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:51 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
AA+US could probably fit in C-D

A lot of LGA passengers show up at 'terminal C' when they really want 'concourse C' at terminal B. So, to be clear, when you say 'C-D', what you mean is 'concourses C and D at terminal B', correct? FYI, Delta boarding passes say terminal C or D...no other airline (that I've seen) at LGA denotes what terminal is to be used.
 
phlwok
Posts: 453
Joined: Mon May 28, 2007 11:41 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:52 am

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

This is why all the folks saying JFK will replace PHL can't be correct - JFK can't replace PHL either operationally or geographically. And if you close PHL as a hub, you lose a lot of traffic from the country's 5th largest metro area. JFK also does not have much domestic feed, nor can it expand to either.

JFK is not a PHL replacement. Aside from some in the PHL area driving there for nonstops to far afield, such as Asia, that have been more available in recent years from EWR anyway, it's a true pain to get to JFK from the Philly area. Heck, it can be hard to get there from Manhattan at rush hour with any kind of speed.

Quoting commavia (Reply 67):
If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

If the merged company's management is smart, this is what they'll do as this is where the opportunity is. It would be well positioned to use PHL correctly, would have the focus city at DCA serving the DC metro with its higher yields and convenient-to-DC location and limited connections, could finally make better use of LGA slots, and use JFK for international O&D and traffic pushed there by LGA perimeter restrictions (e.g., NYC-LAX/SFO). Additionally, you'd have the geographically advantageous hub in CLT and what is probably the best located hub in the US to the Caribbean and most of Latin America in MIA. Properly executed, that is one very dominant carrier in the East, the most densely populated part of the country by a long shot.

Less clear to me is the PHX situation, as much transcon traffic heading to California from points east can route via DFW, but AA at LAX also can't expand significantly without more terminal capacity, and PHX is a large and fast growing area that they shouldn't cede to WN for O&D traffic reasons. Maybe it becomes more like DCA without the perimeter rule - good connectivity to the rest of the country to support O&D and some regional connections so someone flying DEN-SAN on AA wouldn't have to route via DFW or a RJ on LAX-SAN.

We seem to have these very similar discussions around hub closures every time AA/US comes up here; most analyses ignore the opportunities and focus on pure downsizing, and misunderstand how isolated JFK is from a ground transportation perspective and how much it can't grow due to slots.
 
coairman
Posts: 166
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:04 am

I would love to see a AA-US merger hub optimization internal merger document. I bet CLT and PHX are hit the hardest. I think AA's MIA hub will hurt CLT as far as route duplication. PHX will shrink at the benefit of LAX and DFW.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:13:09]
 
alfa164
Posts: 4091
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:04 am

Quoting reffado (Reply 57):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

MSP operations are down because DL eliminated flying with the smallest planes (Saabs, most 50-passenger RJ's) and replaced them with bigger aircraft. The result has been about the same passenger numbers, but better planes and smoother operations. It looks like AA is approaching ORD with the same idea.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:06 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

The metaphor is very good. DL kept the hubs that were obviously viable. Including things like SLC and MSP. Did they tweak capacity, and employ cross-fleeting, of course they did.

Having said CLT and PHL are viable, AA's ORD situation is unknown and little discussed. LAX+JFK are, to put it mildly, question marks. If AA were making money there, we would have seen gigantic AA operations there similar to another DFW. But even when JFK had slots open, AA didn't use them. Didn't want them. Same at LAX - they could expand but they (eventually tire of losing money there).

I am fully a believer on DFW/MIA and PHL/CLT as permanent hubs for a combined carrier. And DCA. The rest? Questionable imo.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:16:07]
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2707
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:11 am

As much as I dont want this merger to happen....If it does and the they are forced to give up slots at LGA, the only airlines I see going after them are WN & B6 and it will be a bloodbath... And if Terminal C is vacated I see WN with the advanatge as it stands they have more flights than B6

Flight Total
WN 27 (FL 11) 3 Gates
B6 18 3 Gates
 
capitalflyer
Posts: 707
Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:43 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:18 am

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?
 
rwy04lga
Posts: 1976
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RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:22 am

Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?
 
alfa164
Posts: 4091
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:26 am

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

I hope not! Please keep the MAT... and bring back the ferry service from Manhattan!
 
BDL757
Posts: 237
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:49 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:33 am

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 79):
I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!

Not quite, I believe he is talking about CONCOURSES C and D which are in TERMINAL B. Not terminals C and D...it is really confusing for the pax.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7275
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:35 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 82):

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?

Yes, but I'd most certainly expect some divestiture required by DOT and/or DOJ. AA would add 50 daily slots to US' 243, giving them 293 out of the 437 or so slots at DCA (this would be just over 2/3rds of the slots. I could see the 12 slots that AA has for BNA/RDU being divested to slightly appease the feds.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

Doubt it. The Marine Air Terminal is significantly closer to Manhattan than the Terminal C/D complex, chopping off a good 1.5-2 miles off (which in New York traffic can mean 10 minutes each way). Not to mention the lack of hassle - I've flown out of the MAT about 10 times in the past year and there's never been more than 3-4 people ahead of me at security. With the 15 minute check-in times at MAT, it's something that appeals to business travelers and would be difficult to replicate at C/D.

Likewise, if the new combined carrier puts their Shuttle in Pier A of the CTB for now, it could offer a quicker security check given that it's only B6 and AC in there, rather than throwing it into CTB-C/D.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2707
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:41 am

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?


hmmm this would be temtping for DL as this will save them alot $$$... and that side of the airport would officially become DeltaLand
 
tommytoyz
Posts: 1195
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:08 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:44 am

This would need court and creditor approval. This story has gotten way ahead of itself. Maybe the intention of both boards to merge and to seek court and creditor approval will be announced. But AA can not do this via board approval alone. They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.
 
rj777
Posts: 1917
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 1:47 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:55 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 88):
They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.

Who's to say they haven't already asked the creditors and the judge for a hypothetical yes/no or will before making the announcement? There's just too much going on behind the scenes to know exactly what will lead to the (supposed) announcement.
 
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nikeson13
Posts: 233
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 5:35 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:06 am

So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?
 
nutsaboutplanes
Posts: 545
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:37 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:22 am

[quote=PHX787,reply=56]How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.[/quote

This is no different than people not understanding load factor vs. profitability. I don't care if every seat in and out of Phoenix is spoken for, if the yield isn't there, it doesn't matter how full the airplanes are or how crowded the airport is. As far as numbers, let me simply invite you to spend some time at the T4 ticket counter after 10am.....very minimal originating traffic......those concourses are FULL OF CONNECTIONS for the rest of the day.
 
oc2dc
Posts: 469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:38 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:57 am

Being the biggest airline sounds nice, but i'm concerned about in-flight services. American is already ok. They have wi-fi on many of their planes and the overhead videos aren't terrible. With the new jets AA has on order, they will definitely do great in the IFE department. However, I hear US is horrendous. Advertisements on the back of seats, no IFE whatsoever and very little wi-fi. I wonder what AA elites will think when they step aboard a US plane with US crews.
'
Lets face it, US is grades below AA. I'm concerned Parker won't care to continue down the path of the "new American."
 
User avatar
antoniemey
Posts: 1419
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 5:38 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:03 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Why would you want to purchase passengers?

  

Quoting nikeson13 (Reply 90):
So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?

That's only been answered three times in EVERY thread about this possible merger...

The new AA livery and branding will stay. It MIGHT be tweaked, but I doubt it.
 
wn676
Posts: 1762
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:33 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:40 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 56):
How so?

Keep in mind we're talking only about US; their entire operation is focused primarily on connections. Their model isn't to attract a large number of local passengers, which is why you see the bank structure. WN captures a better local traffic ratio and that has been the case for years. It believe it's in the range of 65/35 local to connecting with US having basically the opposite, although I can't seem to find the article where I remember those numbers being posted.

[Edited 2013-02-06 23:41:36]
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:19 am

Another source for the merger story from CBS news- Dallas:

Wednesday, February 6, 2013 6:01 PM CDT

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/02/06/s...-aaus-air-merger-coming-next-week/

[Edited 2013-02-07 00:21:21]
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2912
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:41 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 72):
Did I miss any?

Penn Central?

The USPS

(Oooops, too early to call that one...)
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5160
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:56 am

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 73):
Another major source is a large underground water table.

Is this an artesian aquifer or local water table? In either case it seems unlikely to support the population growth being talked about in this thread.

Gemuser
 
skytony
Posts: 112
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2005 1:25 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:02 am

Maybe they will change the name back to American Airways?
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:05 am

Quoting coairman (Reply 77):

CLT and MIA do not compete for traffic flows on probably 90% or more of the traffic. There is also enough traffic to the carribbean for flights from both hubs.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14741
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:53 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 58):
and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC



They would be around 19.3 million passengers per year combined at EWR, JFK, LGA.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 64):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled?



There really wouldn't be a change, for instance I don't see them bringing back the JFK-Caribbean routes they axed. Those are going to be routed through PHL, CLT and MIA where there's no competition.
 
tommyy
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:16 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 11:59 am

What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14741
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:05 pm

Quoting tommyy (Reply 100):
What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?

Since the surving company will be AA, and they've never shown any indication they were willing to settle in the past 13 years, I'm going to say TLV will not be on AA's route map.

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