WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)

blueflyer · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:39 pm

WFAA (ABC Dallas) reports a merger is to be announced next week, possibly Monday, with headquarters in Ft Worth but leadership from US Airways.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/business/Am...-expected-next-week-190101971.html

[Edited 2013-02-06 15:49:45]

allegiantflyer · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:44 pm

After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

phxa340 · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:45 pm

Yea suggest the title is changed to Rumor as this is not fact ...

blueflyer · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:50 pm

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 3):

There. Happy I hope.

Locally, WFAA is very well informed when it comes to AA, so I'd take it to the bank...

commavia · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:53 pm

It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News, in addition to the Star-Telegram, in addition to WSJ. They're all probably talking to the same "source" who is leaking the same information. Nonetheless, it appears a deal is close.

Glad this soap opera is likely to be coming to an end, one way or another, soon ...

dtw2hyd · Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:57 pm

It true this is a win for Texas politicians.

QANTASvJet · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:05 am

Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

FL787 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:10 am

This article didn't mention it, but in the WSJ article it says that the AA/US merger will create the world's largest airline. By what measure are they basing this off of? Assuming RPM/Ks or ASM/Ks are used which is commonplace, UA is still bigger.

For full year 2012

RPMs
UA: 205,484,567
AA/US: 136,560,266+64,880,446= 201,440,712
DL: 192,955,777

ASMs
UA: 248,860,009
AA/US: 166,129,600+77,510,211= 243,639,811
DL: 230,399,620

Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything and there are other ways of measuring it, but should WSJ really be claiming that AA/US will be the largest airline? Seems like they need some fact-checkers to me.

STT757 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:11 am

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

From the OP's article:

Quote:
American last month debuted a new logo and paint scheme for its aircraft. At the time, Horton said he did not expect to have to change the the livery again.

STT757 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:13 am

I hope they hurry up and announce it already so we can kick off the next phase of speculating new aircraft orders, hub changes, livery etc... That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".

airliner371 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:13 am

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
By what measure are they basing this off of?

AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

UA787DEN · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:15 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Or fleet size.

DolphinAir747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:22 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 10):
That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".

90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.

Stitch · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:27 am

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail.

If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

STT757 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:29 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 13):
90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.

I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.

DolphinAir747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?

etops1 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:37 am

I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

aacun · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:38 am

It will be tuesday when they announce it I was told

plateman · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:40 am

This board (Airliners) has become the AA board lately and its annoying as heck .. one thread, keep it simple. Every person and media outlet seems to have an exclusive story with sources. Most members want to guess what their routes will look like, what hub they will have ... mods keep it on one post please!

FL787 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:42 am

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 12):
Or fleet size.

Thanks, I'm aware of these measurements. My point is that most were calling UA/CO the world's largest airline back in 2010 even though DL carried more passengers and had a larger fleet so I think it's safe to assume most publications/people use ASMs/RPMs, in which case UA would still be larger. If WSJ was actually using enplaned passengers then there's no issue, I'm just not sure they were.

DolphinAir747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:45 am

Quoting etops1 (Reply 17):
I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

How quickly did CO exit SkyTeam a few years back?

CIDFlyer · Thu Feb 07, 2013 12:57 am

I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

MesaFlyGuy · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:02 am

All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:04:06]

CIDFlyer · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:05 am

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

CLT and PHL will retain major roles from everything that is speculated and has been said. PHX is the one hub that has been debatable. But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.

etops1 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 21):

If I remember correctly , I think it was 1year ? I could be wrong .

MAH4546 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:06 am

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

Do you mean will they need to give up slots? Highly unlikely. US only adds a handful of slots to the JFK portfolio; while a combined US-AA at LGA is still smaller - but nonetheless very competitive - than the DOT-sanctioned DL slot portfolio.

DCA slots, for sure, they will have to give some up.

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:07:23]

DolphinAir747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:07 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 22):
I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

If this happens, US wouldn't join; US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

kcrwflyer · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:36 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.

adamh8297 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:38 am

I'm guessing US/VS codeshare would go away pretty quickly?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

I'm sure DL is praying for US to do that. In Boston, this will determine how many Dividend Miles and a fair amount of Mileage Plus members jump aboard the new AA.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

MesaFlyGuy · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:41 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.

BN747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:45 am

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

With DFW being the massive base it is.. I see PHX taking a huge hit.

And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

..and any US honchos who happen to troll A.net, please vote to lose that (new) ugly AA tail. JAL bit the bullet and went back on a mistake and brought back the Crane, pls bring back the eagle and the AA or whip up anything but that Bank of America ripoff. But given the history of US Airways' logos...it's a no win situation.

I've seen all carrier mergers since 1978 and haven't liked a single one.. this is no exception.

BN747

Beardown91737 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:45 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 27):
US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Most likely scenario is that AA is being acquired by LCC. LCC will combine US and AA under the name American Airlines. They would use the current AA membership in OW.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US and running blindly into what didn't make money for AMR. Moving

AA may have the lead in passengers at LAX, but they aren't that big, maybe 160 flights counting regional. I don't see LCC management adding a lot to LAX when they could have tried a LAX focus city.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 15):
I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.

Why wait? We have been talking about hubs for 9-10 months, why not where the planes will go when LCC takes over operation of AA?

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 16):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?

Correct that LCC would use the name American, not "keep" it since they don't own that name now. Beyond that, and the Ft Worth HQ there is no assurance that any current AA anything would be immune, even the recent rebranding of AA. Maybe that will be the first thing cut.

southwest737500 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:49 am

How quick until BA jumps into CLT.

Or is that pushing it

Well CLT spotters sadly we will probably see the A346 go hopefully we can keep LH

Cubsrule · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Where is all that traffic going to go? In to the ether? CLT will doubtless get smaller, but STL is down something like 90 percent from its peak.

usairways85 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:54 am

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK

Uh, I'd hardly call JFK and ORD AA fortresses. DFW and MIA yes but certainly not the first two

MAH4546 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:56 am

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 29):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.

Traffic flows. It's simple.

US Airways has to rely on Charlotte today to do an insane amount of things, such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better. You don't need that capacity overlap, and CLT will simply see it's route network remain largely intact, but less need for capacity as traffic flows spread out through other hubs.

You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

PHX is just a poor yielding market where the merged airline's cost can't compete. That simple. It doesn't serve an important purpose, either.

PHL and NYC will be consolidated to the extent possible - LGA/NYC focusing on O&D and PHL focusing on acting as a Northeast hub.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
That's not a fact. That's your baseless and ridiculous opinion . Why merge then ?

Airlines merge to consolidate operations and eliminate competition. How are MEM, CVG, LAS and PIT holding up after mergers? Oh, yeah. That's right. Even MSP took a big hit after the merger; and that's the type of hit CLT will take - still large and relevant, but nonetheless a shrunken hub.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:00:07]

jporterfi · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:00 am

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 31):
The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.

Would PHL still be classified as a hub assuming this happens? Also, if the ops are consolidated, could we see LGA and JFK used as connecting points in the AA network (I know they already are now, but I'm referring to an increase in the number of connection there relative to PHL)? I think they would still need to keep PHL as a hub, because I highly doubt they'll get enough slots to move all connecting traffic to LGA/JFK. Not to mention the perimeter rule at LGA would be a problem if they decided to move many flights from PHL to LGA.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 30):
WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.

MAH4546 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:02 am

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 38):
Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

This merger also will suck major for consumers, because US is pretty much the most important factor in keeping airfares largely lower in this country by effectively operating on LLC cost principles over a network carrier route network.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:03:01]

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:04:33]

tommy767 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:08 am

Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Overall, AA/US will be powerful. DFW, MIA, CLT, DCA, and PHL is enough of a reason to believe so. Labor issues will be complicated especially with US/HP not even fully integrated since the merger in 2005. I do feel that AA will go leaps and bound to protect their elite base, something that UA is currently failing at right now.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN.

Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.

DolphinAir747 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:12 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.

Most of the traffic flows will be handled via DFW, while LAX will focus more on O&D demand (for which it is the largest airport in the world). AA may keep a few high-yielding point-to-point routes, but otherwise, AA will not keep a major hub in between DFW and LAX, especially one with terrible yields and relatively little international (especially business) traffic.

End of story.

rwy04lga · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:20 am

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything

It's only worth anything if Delta is the world's largest.

What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

Cubsrule · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:31 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 37):
such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be
handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better.

Oddly, though perhaps tellingly, a number of those (MIAFCO, SJUBOS, ORFSAN and RICLAX) are probably still best handled by CLT in the combined network.

panam330 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:33 am

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Uh, no. CLT will certainly shrink, but nowhere near that much. If they cut too much, the hub loses its economy of scale and will be unprofitable, like every other dismantled hub.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

Fortresses? They wish. ORD is a shell of its former self (which hopefully will be fixed with the new cost structure and E75s, with or without the merger), and JFK is what, 100 flights a day to comparatively few destinations.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Doug's had a bumpy road for sure, but he's done a pretty good job at US. He just had to learn the hard way that 'the Tempe way' didn't work on the east coast very well.

I welcome this merger, as long as it doesn't mess with service to the places that US' cost structure makes possible - like DAB. I'd trade a CLT frequency for a MIA one, though!

XT6Wagon · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:34 am

So guys, Time to start a new thread about what WN, UA, and DL will bid on in the asset auction X years from now? Also a thread on what number X is?

Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

sigh.

jfklganyc · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:38 am

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

Some flights need to move to the Terminal C/D complex...just to much at the CTB now...it is bursting at the seams

airliner371 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:46 am

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

6 gates for 18 flights.... no way. If they want one airline to move I could see UA squeezing otherwise I could see 3 AC and 3 B6 or 4 WN, 1 NK and 1 F9, or really any combination.

Bobloblaw · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:54 am

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

No it wont. I get so tired of this stupid argument. STL is only 250 miles from ORD and 500 miles from DFW. CLT would be over 600 miles from the nearest large AA hub.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.

nutsaboutplanes · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:56 am

I know that many like myself are just anxious to get the announcement completed so that we can move on to the initial hurdles that come along with a merger. I would say that general consensus is "cautious optimism" in our camp.

PHX787 · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:56 am

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 2):
After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

Agreed, this doesn't seem quite legit. Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
Bingo. Now, enter the CLT/PHX fanboys, and let the trollfest begin!

Let me start by saying any airline dumping PHX is going to lose out big. PHX is a large city and is slated to grow exponentially.....not to mention that there are 4 or 5 cities out here with average incomes well over 80,000$..... lots of people wanna fly to and from PHX and US is doing a great job with the 60-70% stronghold they have here now.

Hell, if US drops PHX as a hub post merger, then, with the flow of pax I see, I can smell a second intercontinental flight out of PHX, as well as serious expansion from AM, as well as maybe F9, DL, and UA expanding significantly. Not to mention a second HA flight.

There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.

AeroWesty · Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:57 am

Once this merger takes place, AA will be the surviving carrier combined from:

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?

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