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tommy767
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:13 pm

It's been proven for US that CLT, DCA, and PHL make lots of cash. I'd say (for connection hub patterns) CLT might take a slight hit, but keep in mind that other than ATL, it's the second largest hub in the southeast and the 2nd biggest financial center aside NYC. Also keep in mind that you know AA execs have been envious of losing track of their S.E. pax over the years to US and DL. MIA is the best Latam gateway in the country, but AA hasn't been able to gauge the domestic flow properly as for the longest time fleet utilization out of MIA has been restricted to ATR, ERJ, 738, 757, 763, and 777. You wonder why routes like BUF-MIA, PVD-MIA, AUS-MIA, MCI-MIA, PWM-MIA have never started. The answer is AA never had the right aircraft for the smaller markets that warrant it. With a merger, you might see AA grow even more at MIA if/when E170, 319, and E190 make it there.
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LAXdude1023
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:23 pm

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 100):
I agree. I see CLT growing and PHL scaling down. However, I see JFK growing with flights coming from PHL being redeployed to JFK or CLT. Also, I see more of the upstate NY express route flights going to ORD.

Then you dont agree with me. I dont feel like going through my position again, but its on this thread in more than one place.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 98):
I think this argument about how important is the Philadelphia market is tiring.

Ive already presented data that shows what PHL is capable of and what it isnt. The whole "lets shut PHL down" notion has been shot down with data. No one is saying PHL wont lose 3 or 4 European destinations.

You dont have to argue anymore.
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GSPFlyer
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:48 pm

DFW - Little/No Change. AA runs that place, and will continue to.

CLT - Little/No Change. Maybe some minor capacity shifts to places like MIA or DFW, but US has a well established Southeastern hub there, and AA doesn't serve smaller Southeastern markets well. DFW is too far west for connections between the Southeast and anywhere West of the Mississippi. MIA is too far South, but great for connections to the Caribbean/South America. ORD is better for connections to the Northeast/Midwest, but many markets like GSP have lost AA flights to ORD. (Not many Southeastern markets like GSP, CAE, etc. have AA service to anywhere but DFW.) Also, Charlotte is a major financial hub (second largest in the U.S. after NYC, If I remember correctly,) so there is a fair amount of premium demand to CLT.

DCA - Minor cuts if they are required to give up slots, but can probably be made up with less frequency/larger equipment on routes that AA and US both operate.

JFK - Little/No change. Huge O&D market to Europe.

PHL - Increased frequency or larger equipment used to OW hubs in Europe like LHR, MAD, as PHL has something JFK doesnt: A large domestic network to feed the international flights, and little/no competition on it's European routes.

PHX - Probably a decent reduction in capacity, being between LAX and DFW, but it could have a place in their network if it is "right sized."

ORD - There's not much overlap in US and AA's midwest network, so I can't see much happening, other than equipment changes.

MIA - Possibly adding more to the Southeast, to take advantage of the customer base that US has.
 
strfyr51
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:44 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 4):

United is currently supporting 10 Hubs, I'm SURE American can find use for the 8 hubs it currently has and in my opinion they should be looking at a Pacific/Asian Hub to Build, KIX/NRT/HND etc. since it's unlikely anyone else is going to sell THEIRS anytime soon.
 
futureorthopod
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:45 am

How will this impact slots/terminal space available at other airports, particularly LAX? Will Southwest have a little more breathing room in terminal 1
 
AeroWesty
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:53 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 103):
United is currently supporting 10 Hubs, I'm SURE American can find use for the 8 hubs it currently has

I understand where you're coming from, but I don't see UA supporting a hub that is as far out of the way in relation to the major population centers of the region it's useful to serve as PHX is in the grand scheme of things. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong on that.
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BOStonsox
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:04 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 96):
Frankly, I think that's highly unrealistic. A mix of JFK and DCA is not going to cut it - those two together will not be able to replicate the strenght of a single, unified, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, throughout-the-day hub. It just cannot happen. PHL is one of only two airports in the northeast (the other being EWR) that can serve that type of megahub role - I doubt AA would be stupid enough to throw that away.
Quoting jayunited (Reply 98):
This thread looks really familiar to what was posted on this site when CO and UA merged. Many of you though IAD would be reduced in favor of EWR but United has managed to keep them both open and didn't cut any flights. In fact IAD gain a few flights to some smaller European cities as a result of the merger. I don't really know what will happen with JFK and PHL but I don't see PHL being reduce by much because that would leave a hole a very important market.

The problem with PHL is that it's not just against JFK, but DCA and to lesser extents CLT and ORD as well. Philadelphia is a large market in its own right, but it isn't as big or important as New York and Washington are. I think we can all agree that PHL will not be reduced to a spoke, but having three hubs within 250 miles of each other is unprecedented. It might work, but it's risky.
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commavia
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:33 am

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 106):
The problem with PHL is that it's not just against JFK, but DCA and to lesser extents CLT and ORD as well. Philadelphia is a large market in its own right, but it isn't as big or important as New York and Washington are. I think we can all agree that PHL will not be reduced to a spoke, but having three hubs within 250 miles of each other is unprecedented. It might work, but it's risky.

Well, again, I guess where we fundamentally disagree is the realistic appraisal of these three "hubs." I think your appraisal is just unrealistic. AA would, indeed, operate "hubs" at three northeast airports - JFK, PHL and DCA - but those three are all very different operations.

While it is true that both JFK and DCA ultimatly serve larger local population centers than PHL does, both have severe limitations that limit their capacity to replicate the hub that PHL is. For starters, both are severely capacity-constrained, both with slots and in the case of DCA also with gates. Both also compete heavily with other airports - DCA cannot handle any longhaul traffic, preventing it from being a domestic-to-international hub, while JFK competes with LGA and EWR across town, both of which are more conveniently-located to the urban core and preferred for high-yielding domestic traffic. And finally, the markets that JFK and DCA serve are both larger, but also far more competitive, with full-fledged network airline megahubs in the same market (UA at EWR in the case of JFK, UA at IAD in the case of DCA).

All of this is the long way of saying that JFK and DCA - either alone or together - can still not ever serve the same market that PHL does. PHL combines everything - omni-directional (north, south, east and westbound flows), domestic and international traffic, and steady demand throughout the day (not heavily peaked like at JFK) - into a single hub operation. JFK and DCA cannot, and never will be able to, do that. The only other northeast U.S. hub that can is EWR.

That is why - again - this is not the "either-or" choice that you and some others seem to be making it. It's an "all of the above." NYC, PHL and DCA can all coexist as huge operations in a combined AA network, catering to the different competitive and market realities of each of the different markets.



[Edited 2013-02-08 17:43:23]
 
EricR
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:43 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 103):
United is currently supporting 10 Hubs, I'm SURE American can find use for the 8 hubs it currently has and in my opinion they should be looking at a Pacific/Asian Hub to Build, KIX/NRT/HND etc. since it's unlikely anyone else is going to sell THEIRS anytime soon.



Yes, but to compare apples to apples, UA only has 8 hubs in the continental U.S. This would be the same number of hubs as AA/US.

Furthermore, UA is still young in their integrations process. It has only been slightly over a year since UA/CO merged and less than a year since they've merged reservation systems. They've cut a little from LAX and the fate of CLE is quite clear as soon as the retirement of their gas guzzling ERJs (which is the vast majority of the CLE flights) begins and their commitment to Ohio ends.

[Edited 2013-02-08 18:02:01]
 
jayunited
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 95):
BA would probably have to give AA a flight if they really wanted to compete with UA out of IAD. I've heard that some government employees are requried to use American carriers on international routes if there's a choice on the route.

IAD-MAD is now screaming for an AA 757.

JAL could add a 787 flight to compete with United and ANA.


Where are the aircraft coming from to operate these international flights on your wish list seeing that US Airways does not operate any international flight over the Atlantic out of the DC metro area? And why would BA need to give up a flight to AA just so AA can tap into government contracts and operate an international flight from IAD-LHR? If AA or US wanted to operate a flight from IAD-LHR they would be operating it already especially AA because they are the dominate U.S. airline in the LHR market from the U.S. so your assertion that now because of this merger the new AA will now operate international flights out of IAD is crazy and it would totally cannibalize their flights from CLT, JFK, and PHL.
 
corinthians
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:08 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 107):
, while JFK competes with LGA and EWR across town, both of which are more conveniently-located to the urban core and preferred for high-yielding domestic traffic.

OK, can you qualify this statement? Do you even live in the Tri-state? I work in Midtown and I fly out of all three airports a lot. How is EWR better situated and more convenient to the "urban core" than JFK? I am scratching my head over that one. Both airports are about 15 miles from Midtown. Maybe EWR is closer to Lower Manhattan, but unless you are driving there, you will have to trek up to Penn Station to take the train and the distance from Penn to EWR is the same as to JFK. If anything, JFK is more convenient because the LIRR goes to Jamaica station more often than Jersey Transit goes to EWR. Oh, and even driving to EWR from the "urban core" of Manhattan is a pain in the ass. Jersey traffic is much worse than going through Brooklyn or Queens. Not to mention that cabs and car services are much more expensive to go cross state lines. And more people use the JFK airtrain than the EWR monorail. I guess that means they find it more convenient to get to.

And JFK handled about 49 million passengers last year, compared to 35 million for EWR and 25 million for LGA. More than 80% of those 49 million passengers were O&D passengers, vs 85+% for LGA and about half for EWR. For such an inconvenient airport, it isn't too shabby at attracting the locals!
 
commavia
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:11 am

Quoting jayunited (Reply 109):
Where are the aircraft coming from to operate these international flights on your wish list seeing that US Airways does not operate any international flight over the Atlantic out of the DC metro area?

I suspect there would definitely be substantial slack in the combined carrier's widebody fleet, particularly considering that both carriers are in the process of, or soon will be, taking delivery of new widebodies.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 109):
And why would BA need to give up a flight to AA just so AA can tap into government contracts and operate an international flight from IAD-LHR?

BA wouldn't need to give up a flight "so AA can tap into government contracts." BA can already carry U.S. government traffic on its IAD-LHR flights because they carry the AA code. The reason it was suggested that BA might - theoretically - hand one flight to AA is so they don't dump extra capacity into the market. Replace, say, 1 BA 777 with 1 AA 777 for only a marginal net change in the overall number of joint seats offered in the market.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 109):
If AA or US wanted to operate a flight from IAD-LHR they would be operating it already especially AA because they are the dominate U.S. airline in the LHR market from the U.S. so your assertion that now because of this merger the new AA will now operate international flights out of IAD is crazy

Not necessarily. AA today is not a particularly large player in the WAS market compared to UA and US (who both, not incidentally, are in the same alliance these days). If AA and US merge, AA will instantly become a very strong #2 in the metro WAS market, and in that case the AA-BA JV may - I stress may - find it commercially advantageous with regards to attracting corporate contracts in the area, etc. to give WAS-area AAdvantage members the ability to use their free upgrades when heading to Europe, which today is not possible.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 109):
it would totally cannibalize their flights from CLT, JFK, and PHL.

No it wouldn't, especially if AA simpy replaced a BA flight with an AA flight.
 
commavia
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:20 am

Quoting corinthians (Reply 110):
How is EWR better situated and more convenient to the "urban core" than JFK? I am scratching my head over that one. Both airports are about 15 miles from Midtown. Maybe EWR is closer to Lower Manhattan, but unless you are driving there, you will have to trek up to Penn Station to take the train and the distance from Penn to EWR is the same as to JFK. If anything, JFK is more convenient because the LIRR goes to Jamaica station more often than Jersey Transit goes to EWR. Oh, and even driving to EWR from the "urban core" of Manhattan is a pain in the ass. Jersey traffic is much worse than going through Brooklyn or Queens. Not to mention that cabs and car services are much more expensive to go cross state lines. And more people use the JFK airtrain than the EWR monorail. I guess that means they find it more convenient to get to.

EWR is closer to downtown, and roughly equidistant to much of midtown. Although in my experience, if driving, the LIE to the Van Wyck to JFK is rarely if ever faster than the tunnels and highway to EWR. JFK is great if you're in Queens, or even Brooklyn, and certainly for the Island, but in my experience not as much so from the City. Sure, the LIRR is somewhat convenient, if suboptimal with the connection in Jamaica. Either way, the larger point I was making was not about JFK vs EWR - it was about JFK vs EWR and LGA. And generally speaking, for most domestic markets, EWR and/or LGA are the preferred airports for high-yielding business traffic from the city, not JFK. The prime exceptions are probably LAX/SFO, but I believe those are the exceptions, not the rule.

Quoting corinthians (Reply 110):
For such an inconvenient airport, it isn't too shabby at attracting the locals!

I didn't say it was "inconvenient." I said that EWR and LGA were considered more convenient - from a particular location. Big difference. And, furthermore, I never debated that JFK can attract locals (locals being defined as people from the city and the 4 outer buroughs, but also largely Nassau/Suffolk and even Westchester). But the type of local traffic JFK attracts is generally lower-yielding than comparable traffic out of EWr or LGA. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but all else being equal, when it comes specifically domestic markets, a flight out of JFK generally tends to be lower-yielding than a flight out of EWR or LGA to the same destination. That was the key point I was making.
 
capitalflyer
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:39 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
(DCA) (-2, -1): slight reduction in both departures and seats driven largely by forced slot divestitures at DCA

In addition, I would expect some of the regional flying/connections that happen at DCA to shift to PHL/CLT. DCA sucks if you have to connect. Focus should shift to maintaining profitable point to point routes, including state capitals (or whatever congressperson needs a nonstop flight).

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 19):
How big is AA at DCA? That will certainly affect how many slots AA/US has to give up at DCA

AA isn't huge, but they are probably #2 or 3 now behind US and maybe UA, especially since DL pulled out to a large extent. So the combined carrier will have to definitely get rid of some slots. My guess is a couple dozen. Especially slots with no service restrictions (like ESA airports, small cities, etc.). DOT would probably not mind getting a few more LCC flights in the mix, let WN and B6 duke it out. I don't see F9 getting in the fray as they have been noticeably absent from the last couple slot proceedings. (WN to MDW and Florida, B6 to SAN and Florida)
 
corinthians
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:13 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 112):
EWR is closer to downtown, and roughly equidistant to much of midtown. Although in my experience, if driving, the LIE to the Van Wyck to JFK is rarely if ever faster than the tunnels and highway to EWR. JFK is great if you're in Queens, or even Brooklyn, and certainly for the Island, but in my experience not as much so from the City. Sure, the LIRR is somewhat conversatrsationient, if suboptimal with the connection in Jamaica. Either way, the larger point I was making was not about JFK vs EWR - it was about JFK vs EWR and LGA. And generally speaking, for most domestic markets, EWR and/or LGA are the preferred airports for high-yielding business traffic from the city, not JFK. The prime exceptions are probably LAX/SFO, but I believe those are the exceptions, not the rule

Maybe you had some pretty bad luck because as a local who goes to all three airports very frequently on many modes of transportation, I can't see how EWR is easier to get to from Manhattan. Traffic in Jersey is worse than traffic in Queens and Brooklyn, even when taking the LIE, which sucks, into account. I drive these roads often, so I experience this. And it's going to get worse in NJ once the Pulaski Skyway is closed for repairs for a year and a half in a few months, limiting the driving options in NJ even more.

And how is the Airtrain at Jamaica Station sub-optimal? It isn't that much if any further to walk from Jamaica Station to the JFK Airtrain than it is from Newark Airport Station to the Monorail. Aside from the Port Washington line, pretty much all LIRR trains go through Jamiaca station and stop there. Not every Jersey Transit train from Penn goes through Newark. Again, how is Jamaica Station is sub-optimal?

I don't know, if you're aware of some shortcuts to EWR from Manhattan that I am not aware of, let me know!

If you look at the Port's website, you will see that the average income of passengers going through JFK is about the same as those going through EWR. LGA attracts more higher income passengers for sure, but EWR and JFK aren't all that much different. And which airport attracts the higher yielding international passengers? Probably JFK.
 
crAAzy
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:24 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 103):

United is currently supporting 10 Hubs, I'm SURE American can find use for the 8 hubs it currently has and in my opinion they should be looking at a Pacific/Asian Hub to Build, KIX/NRT/HND etc. since it's unlikely anyone else is going to sell THEIRS anytime soon.

United is still posting losses. They are hardly the poster child for airline mergers at this point in time.
 
SWALUV
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:32 am

Quoting GSPflyer (Reply 102):
DCA - Minor cuts if they are required to give up slots, but can probably be made up with less frequency/larger equipment on routes that AA and US both operate.

Just a random question but does this mean we could hope to see some more AA/US 757's going out of DCA      
 
jayunited
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:28 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 111):
I suspect there would definitely be substantial slack in the combined carrier's widebody fleet, particularly considering that both carriers are in the process of, or soon will be, taking delivery of new widebodies.
Quoting commavia (Reply 111):
BA wouldn't need to give up a flight "so AA can tap into government contracts." BA can already carry U.S. government traffic on its IAD-LHR flights because they carry the AA code. The reason it was suggested that BA might - theoretically - hand one flight to AA is so they don't dump extra capacity into the market. Replace, say, 1 BA 777 with 1 AA 777 for only a marginal net change in the overall number of joint seats offered in the market.

US Airways last A330-200 will be delivered sometime this year and they are not scheduled to take delivery of their A350's till 2016 and most of US Airways wide bodies are already being fully utilized they do not have a whole lot of slack. American will start taking delivery of 789 next year but most of those frames will serve as replacements for their aging 763 fleet. The only fleet that will see some slack is AA's 777 fleet with AA deploying some 773 on LHR and GRU routes this frees up some of their 772 that are currently flying those routes. But instead of duplicating routes over to Europe I think AA should use those freed up 772 to increase their presence in Asia or other parts of the world where AA is weak and US has nothing to offer in those regions.

For AA to take over one of BA routes on the IAD-LHR-IAD route would be a complete waste of AA metal especially since they are in a JV with BA and if BA can in fact carry U.S. government traffic due to the JV then it would be ridiculous for AA to waste its metal on this route when they could let BA operate it and still reap some of the profits. It is my opinion that any extra slack in the wide body fleet in the new combined AA should be use to expand either in Asia or, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul, there are a lot of places in the world where the new AA could use those spare aircraft and it is not replacing a BA flight on the IAD-LHR-IAD.
 
commavia
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:24 pm

Quoting corinthians (Reply 114):
Maybe you had some pretty bad luck

Well then I've been having pretty bad luck consistently for pretty much my entire life. Coming from pretty much anywhere in the city, I've generally always found EWR or LGA easier to get to/from than JFK.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 117):
US Airways wide bodies are already being fully utilized they do not have a whole lot of slack.

Today. After a merger, and after network optimization and hub rationalization? Maybe not.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 117):
instead of duplicating routes over to Europe I think AA should use those freed up 772 to increase their presence in Asia or other parts of the world where AA is weak and US has nothing to offer in those regions.

AA should put the planes wherever they make the most money, whther it's IAD-LHR or somewhere else.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 117):
For AA to take over one of BA routes on the IAD-LHR-IAD route would be a complete waste of AA metal especially since they are in a JV with BA and if BA can in fact carry U.S. government traffic due to the JV then it would be ridiculous for AA to waste its metal on this route when they could let BA operate it and still reap some of the profits.

Well, it may not be a "complete waste." As I said, I could see it happening because while it's true that BA can carry U.S. government traffic under Fly America due to the codeshare, the inability for DC-area FFs to use their free upgrades on those flights might be somewhat less attractive compared to UA's FF offering in the area.

If this merger happens, AA will instantly become a very strong presence in the local WAS market, with the second best network out of DC and by far the most daily departures out of DC's preferred airport. Given that, I suggested that it might - might - make sense at some point down the road to switch one of the IAD-LHR flights to AA metal so that the huge AA FF base in DC had a means to use their free upgrades to Europe. The point I was trying to make was that doing that might help them attract new DC-area FFs.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 117):
any extra slack in the wide body fleet in the new combined AA should be use to expand either in Asia or, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Istanbul, there are a lot of places in the world where the new AA could use those spare aircraft

I just don't realistically see too many more longhaul opportunities for AA given its network and hub structure. AA's longhaul network is already strong, and the addition of the US Europe network would only enhance that.

With or without a merger, there really aren't too many more places in Asia that I think AA could grow, realistically, from where they are now. And that's largely fine - AA's network today is approaching where it needs to be to be competitive. The key Asia market missing is now HKG. I think it is plausible that AA could fly to HKG, and possibly expand somewhat in China somewhat if/when that market warrants. But beyond that, AA isn't likely to be flying its own metal to TPE, MNL, SIN or BKK anytime soon, nor does it need to be. Some have suggested AA - as part of the QANTAS JV - fly to Australia and/or New Zealand. Eh. Maybe, but maybe not.

As for the Mid East, too, I don't really see where AA could fly profitably. IST is low-yielding and dominated by an extremely strong competitor in TK who has low costs and a good product. DXB and AUH are dominated by their local carriers who, again, have lower costs and a great product (and, not incidentally, are both - at least as of now - AA's partners). India is notoriously low-yielding and very cost-intensive due to the stage length, and realistically probably only could work nonstop from the U.S. out of NYC. To me, that only leaves TLV, where I do think AA can and should expand - I could definitely see a JFK-TLV added alongside PHL-TLV.

Beyond Asia and the Mid East, Africa is a market AA should be in. With the 77Ws, I think MIA-JNB should happen. MIA-LOS and/or MIA-ACC might also work. But beyond that? There isn't much else, and as both DL and UA have proven, the market is no panacea.

And finally, South America. I think that one speaks for itself. AA is already so dominant there that at this point it's simply filling in the few remaining major cities on the continent it doesn't already serve with at least 1 if not more than 1 daily flight. There is some more growth potential left there for sure.
 
jfk777
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:26 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 118):
Beyond Asia and the Mid East, Africa is a market AA should be in. With the 77Ws, I think MIA-JNB should happen. MIA-LOS and/or MIA-ACC might also work. But beyond that? There isn't much else, and as both DL and UA have proven, the market is no panacea.

With AA finally finishing their Miami hub, its time to expand eyond Latin America and do something in the South Atlantic. With AA now having extra 777 available for new destinations, some will find new cities in Asia, Johannesburg would be a great start. Lagos culd be interesting too, but with no petroluim industry in Miami it may not work from there. DFW - Lagos could work, Continental flies Houston to Lagos.
 
cjpmaestro
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:07 pm

There is so much speculation on here about cuts and reductions, particularly to US hubs, and while I do see cuts at PHX I think it's proven the operations at PHL, CLT and DCA and profitable and have been. I'm not sure the same can be said at ORD, LAX and JFK (and really I don't know but US has been profitable for many quarters now and AA went into bankruptcy). I think AA's corner stone strategy looks good on paper but was it fiscally? I don't see cuts at DFW and MIA but what about the others?

Lastly, all the speculation on PHL is very interesting. This is an important hub in thee northeast and while it's 150 miles from NYC they are also all three hours from 60% of the US population. I think this is an interesting situation as with the other mega mergers I don't think there have been two hubs this close and this close to so much population. I think they both serve two different purposes and may have some slight right sizing but they will most certainly exist as hubs. Also the comments on here about Philadelphia are hysterical. This is a major US city with a diverse and relatively good economy.
 
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STT757
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:40 pm

With this merger AA will be in possession of much of the former Eastern air lines assets, except ATL:

Latin America routes
Northeast shuttle (via Trump)
Philadelphia hub assets (via Midway)
DCA (via NWA)
Eastern used to have a hub in CLT that complimented ATL up until the mid '80s.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:01 pm

Quoting GSPflyer (Reply 102):
Also, Charlotte is a major financial hub (second largest in the U.S. after NYC, If I remember correctly

While it doesn't necessarily diminish its importance as a destination, I think Charlotte lost this ranking to San Francisco after the financial industry collapse.
 
SCQ83
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Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:12 pm

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 120):
Also the comments on here about Philadelphia are hysterical. This is a major US city with a diverse and relatively good economy.

I made some of those "histerical" comments. Never said Philadelphia was Duluth or Juneau... I just pointed that PHL is not such a major market as some (I assume) locals like to think.

Good economy? Philadelphia has one of the highest unemployment, poverty rates and lowest incomes among the major US urban areas:

http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-2...usehold-income-census-figures-show

Now you can talk me about a few Fortune 500 or universities we all know in the area... but I wouldn't expect less for a city its size (I mean, even Detroit has GM). Yet PHL is and has been in a downward trend. Now compare it to cities its size (or even smaller) like Boston (biotech, research, universities) or San Francisco and the Bay Area. Neither PHL has appeal to domestic or foreign tourists (how important is tourism for MIA or NYC?).

On top of that, access to EWR and IAD (with FAR more international options) is quite easy; hardly any other metro area its size has so many nearby international gateways. Again, then I assume that major European or Asian carriers like Air France, KLM, Swiss, JAL, Korean, Emirates, Qatar...many of whom serve similar sized markets in the US (even competing with local airlines with long-haul), are completely blind not having any intention to serve PHL and leaving that market to US Airways alone (along with BA and LH).
 
Ryefly
Posts: 1328
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2000 7:56 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:41 pm

I suppose anything is possible with this industry, but its doubtful there will be many if any cuts to CLT. I think its more likely CLT will continue to grow. Their construction plans sure indicate that will be the case.

Sure CLT doesn't have the O&D that some of the other hubs do, but who cares if its profitable? CLT is one of if not the lowest cost major hub in the country. Eliminating efficient low cost service for more O&D in a congested high cost area doesn't make much sense to me. All it takes is a low fare airline or two with a better cost structure to start service on the same routes to erode any O&D advantage those hubs have. As long as CLT has a lot of traffic feeding into it, the O&D is the icing on the cake. Also, once the merger is complete, any major reduction is a huge win for Delta in ATL.
 
corinthians
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 5:54 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:57 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 118):
Well then I've been having pretty bad luck consistently for pretty much my entire life. Coming from pretty much anywhere in the city, I've generally always found EWR or LGA easier to get to/from than JFK.

Well, like I said, I have lived in NYC for the last 13 years and you obviously don't live here. I most definitely use all three airports a lot more than you do. If you know a very quick secret way for me to get to EWR from Manhattan, I'm all ears. Until then, you really shouldn't make blanket statements like that unless you can back it up.
 
AA787
Posts: 520
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 7:46 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:15 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 118):
Quoting corinthians (Reply 114):
Maybe you had some pretty bad luck

Well then I've been having pretty bad luck consistently for pretty much my entire life. Coming from pretty much anywhere in the city, I've generally always found EWR or LGA easier to get to/from than JFK.
Quoting corinthians (Reply 125):
Well, like I said, I have lived in NYC for the last 13 years and you obviously don't live here. I most definitely use all three airports a lot more than you do. If you know a very quick secret way for me to get to EWR from Manhattan, I'm all ears. Until then, you really shouldn't make blanket statements like that unless you can back it up.

I think there might be a difference between how people get to the airport. From a mass transit perspective, EWR is far more convenient than JFK, particularly for those who live on the west side with easy access to the 1,2,3/ A,C,E. If you are driving, Van Wyck included, I do think JFK is still easier to get to than EWR (not to mention cheaper).

LGA is still the easiest one of all to get to from Manhattan based purely on how close it is. That is why the Shuttle has always been based out of LGA.

I think this conversation about convenience of airports in NYC is counterproductive to the discussion of AA/US hubs in the future.

Regarding JFK, I think that save one or two flights to PHX all US legacy flights will be cancelled in favor of more O&D traffic. AA has always had a strategy in Europe that when expanding they try to serve a foreign station from multiple hubs (compare AA's route network in Europe to say.... Continental). I think going forward you will see a flight to JFK coupled with a flight to another hub that offers connectiing opportunities (PHL, ORD, even MIA) for new destinations.
 
corinthians
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 5:54 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:33 pm

Quoting AA787 (Reply 126):
I think there might be a difference between how people get to the airport. From a mass transit perspective, EWR is far more convenient than JFK, particularly for those who live on the west side with easy access to the 1,2,3/ A,C,E. If you are driving, Van Wyck included, I do think JFK is still easier to get to than EWR (not to mention cheaper).

Working in Midtown West, I am curious how is it easier to get to EWR from there with the 1,2,3 and A,C,E. I take the E Train to and from Penn Station every day. To the best of my knowledge, the best mass transit option from Manhattan to EWR is via Jersey Transit to Newark Airport Station. You take that from Penn Station, same as taking the LIRR to Jamaica and then hopping on the Air Train to JFK. Sounds like they're the same. The train to Jamaica is actually quicker than the train to Newark since it's often direct where as the Newark train usually stops in Secaucus. Yes, I know you can take the PATH Downtown to Newark Penn Station, but how do you get to the airport from there? Cab? Bus? Transfer to a NJ Transit train?

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 123):
made some of those "histerical" comments. Never said Philadelphia was Duluth or Juneau... I just pointed that PHL is not such a major market as some (I assume) locals like to think.

Good economy? Philadelphia has one of the highest unemployment, poverty rates and lowest incomes among the major US urban areas:

http://articles.philly.com/2012-09-2...usehold-income-census-figures-show

Now you can talk me about a few Fortune 500 or universities we all know in the area... but I wouldn't expect less for a city its size (I mean, even Detroit has GM). Yet PHL is and has been in a downward trend. Now compare it to cities its size (or even smaller) like Boston (biotech, research, universities) or San Francisco and the Bay Area. Neither PHL has appeal to domestic or foreign tourists (how important is tourism for MIA or NYC?).

On top of that, access to EWR and IAD (with FAR more international options) is quite easy; hardly any other metro area its size has so many nearby international gateways. Again, then I assume that major European or Asian carriers like Air France, KLM, Swiss, JAL, Korean, Emirates, Qatar...many of whom serve similar sized markets in the US (even competing with local airlines with long-haul), are completely blind not having any intention to serve PHL and leaving that market to US Airways alone (along with BA and LH).

Good comments. I don't see foreign carriers rushing to go there.
 
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STT757
Posts: 14166
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:38 pm

The fastest option is Amtrak from NY Penn station to EWR, 21 minutes cost $33. That's pretty darn good. Also the most comfortable.

[Edited 2013-02-09 08:40:13]
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
masseybrown
Posts: 5569
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2002 2:40 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 6:20 pm

Quoting BOStonsox (Reply 106):
having three hubs within 250 miles of each other is unprecedented.


Lufthansa, directly or through subsidiaries, operates BRU, FRA, MUC, ZHR, and VIE. AirFrance has AMS, ORY, and CDG (and may be in danger of adding MXP).

If the hubs have a big enough O&D market, capturing that O&D matters more than self-diversion of feed.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 6:24 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 119):
With AA finally finishing their Miami hub, its time to expand eyond Latin America and do something in the South Atlantic.

Agreed.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 119):
With AA now having extra 777 available for new destinations, some will find new cities in Asia, Johannesburg would be a great start.

JNB is a good start - it's a market I think AA could absolutely make work.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 119):
Lagos culd be interesting too, but with no petroluim industry in Miami it may not work from there. DFW - Lagos could work, Continental flies Houston to Lagos.

I think AA might be able to make LOS work, but probably with just a 767. I doubt DFW-LOS would ever work - IAH-LOS works largely because of the oil traffic, which is heavily concentrated in IAH.

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 120):
There is so much speculation on here about cuts and reductions, particularly to US hubs, and while I do see cuts at PHX I think it's proven the operations at PHL, CLT and DCA and profitable and have been. I'm not sure the same can be said at ORD, LAX and JFK (and really I don't know but US has been profitable for many quarters now and AA went into bankruptcy). I think AA's corner stone strategy looks good on paper but was it fiscally? I don't see cuts at DFW and MIA but what about the others?

The key is to stop comparing the two airlines as they independently exist and have performed up to now, and instead look at how a combined network would perform for a single unified airline in the future.

Sure, some of AA's hubs have been less profitable or unprofitable in the past, but that's because AA was structurally limited by a pre-bankruptcy cost structure and labor union restrictions that prohibited it from being competitive with its post-bankruptcy peers. Similarly, some of US hubs have been relatively more profitable up to now, but that's largely a function of the fact that most of US' employees are still working pretty much at bankruptcy-era compensation levels from 5+ years ago.

All of that will go away in a merger. The combined airline's costs will probably be slightly lower than AA's were pre-bankruptcy, and will absolutely be not-inconsequentially higher than US' costs are now. As such, all the old calculus of how profitable US hubs previously were is rendered somewhat meaningless. Thus why there is more of a focus on, and expectation of, dispraportionally more of the cuts coming from the pre-merger US network than the pre-merger AA network.

At the substantially higher cost levels - both labor costs and other costs - of a combined entity, much of the flying US previously did profitably will now become unprofitable, and likely be exited. This will likely be seen most vividly in CLT and PHX, with CLT seeing a fair reduction in flying/capacity and PHX seeing a drastic reduction in flying/capacity.

On the other hand, the relative change from the pre-merger (or no merger) to post-merger state is far less dramatic on the AA side simply because AA's hubs are generally higher-yielding, have already been progressively culled of some of their lowest-margin flying, and because many of the benefits of bankruptcy that those hubs needed in order to be (more) profitable - such as more competitive union contracts and more 70-100-seat jets - are still going to happen whether there is a merger or not.

Quoting corinthians (Reply 125):
Well, like I said, I have lived in NYC for the last 13 years and you obviously don't live here. I most definitely use all three airports a lot more than you do. If you know a very quick secret way for me to get to EWR from Manhattan, I'm all ears. Until then, you really shouldn't make blanket statements like that unless you can back it up.

I don't live in New York now, but I have before. You have your experiences, I have mine.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3097
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:29 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 118):
Given that, I suggested that it might - might - make sense at some point down the road to switch one of the IAD-LHR flights to AA metal so that the huge AA FF base in DC had a means to use their free upgrades to Europe. The point I was trying to make was that doing that might help them attract new DC-area FFs.

This has to be one of the worst reasons I have ever heard for a airline to add a flight on its own metal, AA would not make any money. Switching a flight to ones own metal so that their FF base can use their free upgrades would cost AA money because if the percentage of people upgrading into business class from a coach class ticket is greater than the number of people who actually buy a business class ticket then AA is going to loss money on the route. Although this is the norm on flights from LAX-HNL-LAX there is no way AA would start a flight to LHR from IAD for this reason. If AA puts this route on their own metal it will be because they want to tap into their customer base and attract new customers who would actually buy a business class or first class ticket. I can't speak about BA but I to know a lot about UA and depending on the time of year it is nearly impossible for any one less than a GS passenger to get upgraded into first class and in some cases we can't even upgrade the GS passenger because first class is full and in business there may be 1 or 2 seats available for upgrades the rest are filled with passengers who actually bought a business class ticket. If AA starts this route it won't be because AA wants to award their huge FF base with free upgrades to business class on flights to LHR.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:49 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 131):
This has to be one of the worst reasons I have ever heard for a airline to add a flight on its own metal, AA would not make any money. Switching a flight to ones own metal so that their FF base can use their free upgrades would cost AA money because if the percentage of people upgrading into business class from a coach class ticket is greater than the number of people who actually buy a business class ticket then AA is going to loss money on the route.

First suggestion: take a deep breath.

Second suggestion: re-read my comments.

I never suggested AA start a flight simply to give free upgrades to people. A hypothetical AA flight IAD-LHR would be just like every single other flight AA operates, meaning revenue and yield management would attempt to maximize profit and sell as many revenue seats - in all cabins - as possible at the highest possible price. However, the benefit of one single AA flight IAD-LHR as opposed to three all on BA is that AAdvantage members don't have the chance of using free upgrades on BA. They do have that chance on AA. As such, the ability to offer top-tier AAdvantage members in the D.C. area the change - not the guarantee - of using their free upgrade might help AA attract those high-yielding, fare-paying frequent flyers to the AA/oneworld (as opposed to UA/Star) network.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 131):
If AA puts this route on their own metal it will be because they want to tap into their customer base and attract new customers who would actually buy a business class or first class ticket.

Obviously. Nobody was ever suggesting otherwise. Again, all I was suggesting is that giving U.S.-based frequent flyers the chance to use their free upgrades when headed to Europe might help with attracting those "new customers who would actually buy a business class or first class ticket."
 
bagoldex
Posts: 1027
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 3:33 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:51 pm

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 122):

While it doesn't necessarily diminish its importance as a destination, I think Charlotte lost this ranking to San Francisco after the financial industry collapse.

Not even close. Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Miami, DC, Houston, Los Angeles, Atlanta ...
 
point2point
Posts: 2093
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:36 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 86):
If you think CLT will drop by 1/3, please start listing the cuts. Markets and frequencies.

At first I though - oy vey, really - but then, I thought that if I could get a timetable that I could easily copy and paste onto my spreadsheet, I thought - why not, and spend a few minutes on this. Well, once I started it took me more than a few minutes, but once I started..... I kept going. Here is the link to the timetable that I used

http://www.trvlink.com/download/us/usschedules.pdf

With that..... I noticed that a lot of these destinations near CLT have about 8 or 9 frequencies with the 50 seat CRJs or props. Way too much considering the local O&D, which I posted from Q3 12 where I could. There's also some international O&D if I could find it, and posted both domestic and international O&D where I though applicable.

After looking at everything, I think CLT will be in for a huge massacre if this merger happens. I really don't think the new AA/US is going to be having 8 banks at CLT, and I reduced CLT to 3 banks, where in many cases it's still far too generous. Also, my total of current daily flights at CLT is around 665, and that may be because I included as daily a lot of frequencies that may not be available on week-ends, or other times. Nonetheless, I don't disagree that maybe there are a few too many flights that I listed..... fine.... but I also listed what I think a new CLT will look like with an AA/US merger. So here it is....... first the destination from CLT with miles, then the current number of flights, then what I would think will happen, and then any local passengers per day if relevant.....


Akron OH US (CAK) 394 miles …….. 5 ……… 3 …….
Albany NY US (ALB) 645 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 160 ppd
Allentown PA US (ABE) 480 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 64 ppd
Antigua AG (ANU) 1717 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Aruba AW (AUA) 1706 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 89 ppd
Asheville NC US (AVL) 92 miles ……. 10 ……. 3 ……. >10 ppd
Atlanta GA US (ATL) 227 miles ……. 9 ……. 6 …….
Augusta (Bush) GA US (AGS) 141 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
Austin TX US (AUS) 1033 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 200 ppd
Baltimore (Balt/Wash Intl) MD US (BWI) 360 miles ……. 9 ……. 6 …….
Baton Rouge LA US (BTR) 676 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 47 ppd
Belize City (Goldson) BZ (BZE) 1299 miles ……. 0.3 ……. 0.3 …….
Birmingham AL US (BHM) 351 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 161 ppd
Boston MA US (BOS) 727 miles ……. 9 ……. 8 …….
Bridgetown BB (BGI) 2029 miles ……. 0.1 ……. 0.1 …….
Buffalo NY US (BUF) 545 miles ……. 4 ……. 3 ……. 248 ppd
Burlington VT US (BTV) 760 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Cancun MX (CUN) 1041 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 114 ppd
Charleston SC US (CHS) 168 miles ……. 9 ……. 2 ……. 23 ppd
Charleston WV US (CRW) 220 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 16 ppd
Charlottesville VA US (CHO) 244 miles ……. 7 ……. 2 ……. 24 ppd
Chattanooga TN US (CHA) 242 miles ……. 6 ……. 2 ……. 42 ppd
Chicago (O’Hare) IL US (ORD) 599 miles ……. 8 ……. 9 …….
Cincinnati OH US (CVG) 335 miles ……. 5 ……. 3 ……. 154 ppd
Cleveland OH US (CLE) 430 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
Columbia SC US (CAE) 89 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
Columbus OH US (CMH) 346 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 160 ppd
Cozumel MX (CZM) 1076 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Dallas/Ft Worth TX US (DFW) 936 miles ……. 8 ……. 8 ……. 638 ppd
Daytona Beach FL US (DAB) 416 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 45 ppd
Dayton OH US (DAY) 370 miles ……. 6 ……. 3 ……. 99 ppd
Denver CO US (DEN) 1340 miles ……. 6 ……. 3 ……. 439 ppd
Detroit MI US (DTW) 500 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 363 ppd
Fayetteville NC US (FAY) 117 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 …….
Fayetteville (NW AR Rgl) AR US (XNA) 754 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 88 ppd
Florence SC US (FLO) 99 miles ……. 6 ……. 3 …….
Frankfurt DE (FRA) 4396 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Freeport BS (FPO) 611 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 11 ppd
Ft Lauderdale FL US (FLL) 632 miles ……. 8 ……. 4 …….
Ft Myers FL US (RSW) 600 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 120 ppd
Ft Walton Beach FL US (VPS) 460 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 …….
Gainesville FL US (GNV) 389 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 ……. 31 ppd
Grand Cayman Is. KY (GCM) 1097 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 66 ppd
Greensboro/High Pt NC US (GSO) 82 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 …….
Greenville NC US (PGV) 202 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 …….
Greenville-Spartanburg SC US (GSP) 75 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 …….
Gulfport MS US (GPT) 578 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 ……. 37 ppd
Harrisburg PA US (MDT) 412 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 105 ppd
Hartford CT US (BDL) 643 miles ……. 7 ……. 4 ……. 337 ppd
Hilton Head SC US (HHH) 207 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
Houston (Bush) TX US (IAH) 913 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 376 ppd
Huntington WV US (HTS) 235 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 …….
Huntsville AL US (HSV) 334 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 63 ppd
Indianapolis IN US (IND) 428 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 284 ppd
Jackson (Intl) MS US (JAN) 563 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 ……. 63 ppg
Jacksonville FL US (JAX) 329 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 145 ppd
Jacksonville NC US (OAJ) 190 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 …….
Johnson City (Tri-City Apt) TN US (TRI) 120 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
Kansas City MO US (MCI) 809 miles ……. 5 ……. 3 ……. 261 ppd
Key West FL US (EYW) 736 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 46 ppd
Knoxville TN US (TYS) 177 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 ……. 31 ppd
Las Vegas NV US (LAS) 1916 miles ……. 5 ……. 3 ……. 481 ppd
Lexington KY US (LEX) 282 miles ……. 6 ……. 3 ……. 48 ppd
Liberia CR (LIR) 1719 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Little Rock AR US (LIT) 642 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 85 ppd
London (Gatwick) GB (LGW) 4009 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Los Angeles CA US (LAX) 2125 miles ……. 6 ……. 4 ……. 868 ppd
Louisville KY US (SDF) 336 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 108 ppd
Lynchburg VA US (ston Glenn Field (Municipal) (LYH / KLYH), USA - Virginia">LYH) 175 miles ……. 6 ……. 2 ……. 11 ppd
Manchester NH US (MHT) 737 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 …….
Melbourne FL US (MLB) 491 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 39 ppd
Memphis TN US (MEM) 512 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 166 ppd
Mexico City MX (MEX) 1552 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 91 ppd
Miami FL US (MIA) 650 miles ……. 7 ……. 8 …….
Milwaukee WI US (MKE) 651 miles ……. 5 ……. 3 ……. 259 ppd
Minneapolis St Paul MN US (MSP) 930 miles ……. 4 ……. 4 ……. 445 ppd
Mobile AL US (MOB) 527 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 40 ppd
Montego Bay JM (MBJ) 1166 miles ……. 4 ……. 1 ……. 83 ppd
Montgomery AL US (MGM) 373 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 31 ppd
Montreal (P E Trudeau) QU CA (YUL) 801 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 55 ppd
Myrtle Beach SC US (MYR) 156 miles ……. 10 ……. 2 ……. 17 ppd
Nashville TN US (BNA) 329 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 234 ppd
Nassau BS (NAS) 731 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 72 ppd
New Bern NC US (EWN) 221 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
New Orleans LA US (MSY) 651 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 247 ppd
Newport News VA US (PHF) 281 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 …….
New York (JFK) NY US (JFK) 541 miles ……. 6 ……. 5 …….
New York (La Guardia) NY US (LGA) 543 miles ……. 14 ……. 12 …….
New York (Newark Liberty Intl) NY US (EWR) 528 miles ……. 8 ……. 5 …….
Norfolk VA US (ORF) 289 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 …….
Omaha NE US (OMA) 913 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 108 ppd
Orlando FL US (MCO) 468 miles ……. 9 ……. 5 ……. 583 ppd
Ottawa OT CA (FL US (PNS) 489 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 70 ppd
Philadelphia PA US (PHL) 448 miles ……. 10 ……. 6 ……. 548 ppd
Phoenix AZ US (PHX) 1774 miles ……. 9 ……. 4 ……. 321 ppd
Pittsburgh PA US (PIT) 366 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 ……. 297 ppd
Portland ME US (PWM) 812 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 155 ppd
Portland OR US (PDX) 2282 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Providence RI US (PVD) 683 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 …….
Providenciales TC (PLS) 1064 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 51 ppd
Punta Cana DO (PUJ) 1381 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 ……. 66 ppd
Raleigh/Durham NC US (RDU) 130 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 ……. 22 ppd
Richmond VA US (RIC) 256 miles ……. 8 ……. 3 ……. 110 ppd
Rio De Janeiro (Intl) RJ BR (GIG) 4693 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 19 ppd
Roanoke VA US (ROA) 155 miles ……. 9 ……. 2 ……. 10 ppd
Rochester NY US (ROC) 572 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Salisbury-Ocean City MD US (SBY) 370 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 …….
Salt Lake City UT US (Cont) ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
San Antonio TX US (SAT) 1095 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 210 ppd
San Diego CA US (SAN) 2077 miles ……. 2 ……. 2 ……. 232 ppd
San Francisco CA US (SFO) 2296 miles ……. 4 ……. 3 …….
San Jose CR (SJO) 1747 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 69 ppd
San Juan PR (SJU) 1474 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 …….
Sarasota FL US (SRQ) 547 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 68 ppd
Savannah GA US (SAV) 214 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 ……. 27 ppd
Seattle/Tacoma WA US (SEA) 2279 miles ……. 2 ……. 2 ……. 378 ppd
St Croix VI (STX) 1562 miles ……. 0.1 ……. 0.1 …….
St Louis MO US (STL) 575 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 288 ppd
St Lucia (Hewamorr) LC (UVF) 1933 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
St Maarten AN (SXM) 1611 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 …….
St Thomas VI (STT) 1520 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 …….
Syracuse NY US (SYR) 603 miles ……. 3 ……. 2 ……. 162 ppd
Tallahassee FL US (TLH) 387 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 …….
Tampa FL US (TPA) 508 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 349 ppd
Toronto (Pearson) OT CA (IAD) 321 miles ……. 8 ……. 5 …….
Washington (Reagan) DC US (DCA) 330 miles ……. 11 ……. 8 …….
West Palm Beach FL US (PBI) 590 miles ……. 7 ……. 3 ……. 159 ppd
White Plains NY US (HPN) 563 miles ……. 3 ……. 1 …….
Wilmington NC US (ILM) 185 miles ……. 9 ……. 3 ……. 25 ppd
Wilkes-Barre PA US (AVP) 508 miles ……. 2 ……. 1 …….

TOTAL ....... 664.......... 340


(pardon my sloppiness with the columns, but these just take too long to fix here)


So..... now in conclusion... I don't think there's going to be 6 or 7 or 8 flights per day to/from CLT and the destinations where the local O&D isn't there for that anymore, especially with the small CRJs. CLT will do quite well in handling its O&D, even with 3 banks.

And now since I've done this, sorry to say... but again... now I think CLT will be in for a big massacre.... and it will be more of a 50% reduction.....

edit added: this system is doing something I can't control when Canadian destinations are involved, e.g you see Ottawa and Pensacola together, and Toronto and the Washington DC area airports are getting mixed in together. When I look at it in edit..... it looks okay, so I don't know quite what to do, and the numbers with these aren't quite accurate. I'll attempt to fix this in a later post if I can.......

 

[Edited 2013-02-09 16:43:10]

[Edited 2013-02-09 17:12:51]
 
point2point
Posts: 2093
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 91):
Domestically, CLT looks like this:

New York: 2678
Boston: 1239
Washington DC: 1106
Chicago: 957
Los Angeles: 732
Dallas: 655
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 654
Orlando: 612
Philadelphia: 601
San Francisco: 557
Las Vegas: 542
Minneapolis: 475
Detroit: 392
Seattle: 383
Atlanta: 375
Tampa: 370
Houston: 359
Providence: 340
Phoenix: 300

Where's Denver? The last four quarters of the T-100 show the pax numbers at 375, 353, 405 and 439.



 
 
CIDFlyer
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:26 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 134):

At first I though - oy vey, really - but then, I thought that if I could get a timetable that I could easily copy and paste onto my spreadsheet, I thought - why not, and spend a few minutes on this. Well, once I started it took me more than a few minutes, but once I started..... I kept going. Here is the link to the timetable that I used

http://www.trvlink.com/download/us/usschedules.pdf


And now since I've done this, sorry to say... but again... now I think CLT will be in for a big massacre.... and it will be more of a 50% reduction.....

[Edited 2013-02-09 16:43:10]

where's Des Moines? Pensacola?

340 is too low....I still see CLT somewhere between 400-500 flights a day minimum, similar to what DL has at MSP and DTW. Cut back too much in the southeast and you start ceding traffic to DL/ATL.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:29 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 134):
After looking at everything, I think CLT will be in for a huge massacre if this merger happens. I really don't think the new AA/US is going to be having 8 banks at CLT, and I reduced CLT to 3 banks, where in many cases it's still far too generous. Also, my total of current daily flights at CLT is around 665, and that may be because I included as daily a lot of frequencies that may not be available on week-ends, or other times. Nonetheless, I don't disagree that maybe there are a few too many flights that I listed..... fine.... but I also listed what I think a new CLT will look like with an AA/US merger. So here it is....... first the destination from CLT with miles, then the current number of flights, then what I would think will happen, and then any local passengers per day if relevant.....


Asheville NC US (AVL) 92 miles ……. 10 ……. 3 ……. >10 ppd

Seriously? Where's all that connecting traffic going to go?

I applaud your effort, by the way, but what's the rationale behind taking a giant meat cleaver to what is perhaps the most profitable hub in the combined carrier?

[Edited 2013-02-09 17:32:23]

[Edited 2013-02-09 18:21:46]
 
LAXdude1023
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:55 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 135):
Where's Denver? The last four quarters of the T-100 show the pax numbers at 375, 353, 405 and 439.

I missed it. My apologies.

Quoting corinthians (Reply 127):
Working in Midtown West, I am curious how is it easier to get to EWR from there with the 1,2,3 and A,C,E. I take the E Train to and from Penn Station every day. To the best of my knowledge, the best mass transit option from Manhattan to EWR is via Jersey Transit to Newark Airport Station. You take that from Penn Station, same as taking the LIRR to Jamaica and then hopping on the Air Train to JFK. Sounds like they're the same. The train to Jamaica is actually quicker than the train to Newark since it's often direct where as the Newark train usually stops in Secaucus. Yes, I know you can take the PATH Downtown to Newark Penn Station, but how do you get to the airport from there? Cab? Bus? Transfer to a NJ Transit train?

I prefer to use EWR as opposed to LGA or JFK if Im going to Lower Manhattan. The train to Penn station is perfect.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
point2point
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:03 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 136):
where's Des Moines? Pensacola?

My apologies..... DSM I'll give and will say it'll stay with it's one daily. PSN and IAD somehow got next to the Canadian destinations of Ottawa and Toronto (as I explained in my edit above) and there's something in this system that's combining these that I can't control. So with that, I'll try to separate these here.....

Ottawa OT CA (YOW) 750 miles ……. 1 ……. 0 ……. 14 ppd

........ and.......
Pensacola FL US (PNS) 489 miles ……. 5 ……. 2 ……. 70 ppd

and now....

Toronto (Pearson) OT CA (YYZ) 588 miles ……. 4 ……. 2 ……. 172 ppd

unmixed with Dulles
Washington (Dulles) DC US (IAD) 321 miles ……. 8 ……. 5 …….


I know that my list probably isn't 100% accurate, and there may be some overstating of the schedule, or system limitation, or whatever...... The thing is that in the big picture (which I think that my list shows) here I don't think that the new AA/US is going to be allowing 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 daily CRJs to/from CLT with destinations where there isn't some O&D to support it, e.g. PNS is a perfect example above...... does anyone really thing that there are going to be 5 50 seat CRJs daily here with only 70 O&D pax per day? I personally don't think so, and if fares are raised to match costs, well, pax may decide to drive, or just stay home.........

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 137):
I applaud your effort, by the way, but what's the rationale behind taking a giant meat cleaver to what is perhaps the most profitable hub in the combined carrier?

Thank you

With new increased costs for the AA/US, I think that this traffic isn't going to be going anywhere, because frequencies will be cut to match CLT O&D, and fares will be increased, and therefore less pax will fly. I know this works as is now, and may very well continue working if US remains alone. But again, with a merger that will eventually increase costs..... well......?? And even with US standing alone, when (not IF, like maybe this year, next year, or 3 years from now) fuel costs rise, these 50 seat CRJs simply will not fly profitably, and that is something that I think that Doug Parker and crew have been losing sleep over, and I would think that they're aware what 5 daily CRJs to PNS (for example) will be costing them if there's only about 70 daily O&D pax.... and hence their anxiety to merge.

Anyway..... this is all still just my    everyone....

All the best.......

 
 
BHMNONREV
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:04 am

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 137):
I applaud your effort, by the way, but what's the rationale behind taking a giant meat cleaver to what is perhaps the most profitable hub in the combined carrier?


As others here have stated, once the combined operations come into play the increased costs of doing business will erode those advantages to/from CLT.

While I personally don't agree with point2point's projected cuts at CLT, I do believe a 20-25% reduction would be reasonable. The new combined carrier will have so many connecting opportunities available throughout the system, that elimination of some services is inevitable. IMHO the only thing CLT has going for it post-merger is their location. While CLT may be profitable for US does not mean it will be as much under AA/US.

Just my $.02..
 
crAAzy
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:11 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 134):

Antigua AG (ANU) 1717 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Belize City (Goldson) BZ (BZE) 1299 miles ……. 0.3 ……. 0.3 …….
Bridgetown BB (BGI) 2029 miles ……. 0.1 ……. 0.1 …….
Cozumel MX (CZM) 1076 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Liberia CR (LIR) 1719 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….
Freeport BS (FPO) 611 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 11 ppd
Rio De Janeiro (Intl) RJ BR (GIG) 4693 miles ……. 1 ……. 1 ……. 19 ppd
St Lucia (Hewamorr) LC (UVF) 1933 miles ……. 0.2 ……. 0.2 …….

These routes definitely aren't going to stick around in CLT after a merger where MIA and DFW are in play for many of the same CLT feed.


Very nice work and your time is appreciated in putting this together .

I too think CLT will likely remain around the 400-450 flt/day level. Mainly because it really doesn't make much sense to have less than 3 connecting flights a day in most markets if you want to remain competitive, especially against DL in ATL.

[Edited 2013-02-09 18:14:02]

[Edited 2013-02-09 18:17:20]
 
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kngkyle
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:19 am

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 122):
Also, Charlotte is a major financial hub (second largest in the U.S. after NYC, If I remember correctly

Only if by 'finance' you mean exclusively banking. And that is only because the largest US bank (Bank of America) is headquartered there. Lose that, and you lose almost everything.

By every logical metric, Chicago is far and away the 2nd largest financial hub in the US, and in most metrics #4 in the world, after New York, London, and Tokyo. Hong Kong and Singapore are also up there. Boston and San Francisco are both above Charlotte in most lists as well.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:26 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 139):
With new increased costs for the AA/US, I think that this traffic isn't going to be going anywhere, because frequencies will be cut to match CLT O&D, and fares will be increased, and therefore less pax will fly. I know this works as is now, and may very well continue working if US remains alone. But again, with a merger that will eventually increase costs..... well......?? And even with US standing alone, when (not IF, like maybe this year, next year, or 3 years from now) fuel costs rise, these 50 seat CRJs simply will not fly profitably, and that is something that I think that Doug Parker and crew have been losing sleep over, and I would think that they're aware what 5 daily CRJs to PNS (for example) will be costing them if there's only about 70 daily O&D pax.... and hence their anxiety to merge.

It would be interesting to do the same thing for the other hubs in the combined carrier, including both cuts and additions (including any adds to CLT).

Of course, you may also have a life.
 
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2163
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:17 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 139):

Thank you

With new increased costs for the AA/US, I think that this traffic isn't going to be going anywhere, because frequencies will be cut to match CLT O&D, and fares will be increased, and therefore less pax will fly. I know this works as is now, and may very well continue working if US remains alone. But again, with a merger that will eventually increase costs..... well......?? And even with US standing alone, when (not IF, like maybe this year, next year, or 3 years from now) fuel costs rise, these 50 seat CRJs simply will not fly profitably, and that is something that I think that Doug Parker and crew have been losing sleep over, and I would think that they're aware what 5 daily CRJs to PNS (for example) will be costing them if there's only about 70 daily O&D pax.... and hence their anxiety to merge.

Anyway..... this is all still just my everyone....

All the best.......


that may be true...but back to PNS as an example... PNS-CLT is pretty much all CR9's...not to mention what is the O&D between PNS and ATL for example? They run something like 8 MD80's between the 2, sometimes a 757 is thrown in as well. I'm sure the seats outweigh the O&D between PNS and ATL. I realize O & D is importnant but its also important to have a good connection point as well. Back to our PNS example, DL is tops there because its just a quick jump up to ATL and you can go all points from there, west, east coast, northeast, midwest, europe etc. AA provides good service to the west and the upper mississippi valley midwest through DFW, sure you can go to the northeast on AA from PNS but only if you fly 600 miles southeast to MIA, definitely out of the way. You can also do that through DFW, but thats also out of the way. CLT opens up a huge gap in this area and will compete with DL now. This will be true for many cities in the southeast.
 
brilondon
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:31 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 28):
Huh? US was already planning on flying CLT-LHR this summer. AA, with a merger, would be flying it instantly. And I could definitely see BA coming back to CLT with a second daily CLT-LHR flight. The halo effect of the alliance would drive lots of traffic on CLT-LHR, which is part of why CLT-FRA would likely get cut back (my guess is to 1x daily 763).

I don't think that CLT would survive with RDU being only 130 miles from CLT. CLT would be treated just like AA treated STL and RDU.
Rush forever Closer To My Heart
 
point2point
Posts: 2093
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:41 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 138):
I missed it. My apologies.

That's cool my friend...... easy to miss something when dealing with tons of numbers and I probably wouldn't have noticed had I not been looking at something in the numbers myself.......

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 141):
These routes definitely aren't going to stick around in CLT after a merger where MIA and DFW are in play for many of the same CLT feed.

Maybe other than the GIG route, I can see the others remaining. These once or twice weekly flights into the resorts are a less concern that I would have here than 9 some daily CRJs with RDU, CHS, TYS, ROA or SAV and others, or 8 some daily CRJs to MEM, RWS, GSP, RIC, BNA, etc., or those 7 dailies to EWN, PHF, etc., and the 6 dailies to .......... basically the high amount of CRJs used on these routes where there is virtually no O&D. Now...... I commend Parker and crew for how they've been able to get the most out of what they have, including probably best use of the CRJs and in developing this sub-market of Southeast U.S. air travel, but either some unexpected or even expected rise in fuel costs going too high at some point would with about a 95% chance collapse this whole operation. At least get in some bigger planes and reduce frequencies here where possible, I would think to start.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 140):
While I personally don't agree with point2point's projected cuts at CLT, I do believe a 20-25% reduction would be reasonable.

I can see your outlook, and personally would extend all the best to the people in the Charlotte area with this, but if this merger happens, now that I sort of looked at what's really doing with CLT, well.... my sense of gloom ticked up a bit. Anyways...... IF (again IF, but I think most of us can agree that there now is a sorta, maybe, could be chance of this merger actually happening) AA and US get together...... we'll get back here on 2/9/16 (exactly three years from now) and we'll have our "I Told You So" Awards.........

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 143):
Of course, you may also have a life.

I actually do have a life..... and have to get away from this site for a few days at a time sometimes.........

As for doing all of the other hubs....... oy vey........

 

[Edited 2013-02-09 20:43:17]
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:44 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 145):
I don't think that CLT would survive with RDU being only 130 miles from CLT. CLT would be treated just like AA treated STL and RDU.

What does the proximity of CLT to RDU have to do with CLT's future?
 
9w748capt
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:53 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 145):
I don't think that CLT would survive with RDU being only 130 miles from CLT. CLT would be treated just like AA treated STL and RDU.

Dude just .... no. Just curious did you read any of this thread? It's incredible the info that's being discussed.
 
CIDFlyer
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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)

Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:16 am

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 148):

Dude just .... no. Just curious did you read any of this thread? It's incredible the info that's being discussed.

Amen!!! I dont think brilondon has any sort of clue to CLT or how it will play an important role in AA's network. The thought of CLT ending up like RDU or STL is just plain ignorant. They may as well hand over the keys to DL and tell them to take all the traffic to the fastest growing part of the US. That would be extremely stupid on AA's part. UA would be moving in there faster than you can say Waffle House if they did. Not going to happen. CLT isnt going anywhere. It may not be as large as it is now but it will still be a significant hub. Geography is on its side. Its th reason UA wanted US back in 2000, and i'm sure a key reason for this merger. Brings in an entire new region where AA is weak to non existant.

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