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lhcvg
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:38 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 47):
Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who was a US FFer (and vice versa)....do they move to DL. Is this a fraction of people or a lot and does it help the other carriers market share?

You win some, you lose some. Take DCA-ORD for example: there will be more here because of the US fliers who previously had to take UA to ORD. Then you might be able to pick off a few more such as UA fliers who still want DCA but are willing to switch alliances to keep LGA and BOS access. There will certainly be some attrition too, which is to be expected, but overall I would guess it won't be too drastic either way.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:07 pm

Quoting c172akula (Reply 48):
I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC

From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL.

Actually yeah, it is. I bet US is highly profitable from CLT to Caribbean and I dont see other alternatives for those shells. From much of the NE and Midwest CLT is the best gateway to the region, not MIA and certainly not JFK. In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
Example - CLT-GRU

GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
It exactly this reason why I think we'll see a rather significant expansion from AA out of MIA into the eastern US.

And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:14 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.

No need. There is an abundance of unused non-GIG/GRU frequencies already, both unavailable currently and opening up this year. AA will be applying for seven more shortly for POA/CWB.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere?

From Charlotte? Florida is the number one feeder, and MIA/FLL in particular, for CLTFCO, CLTMAD and CLTCDG; MCO is the biggest feeder for DUB. That's overlap that simply isn't needed. Florida connections to Europe are best fed via Miami, where there is a local market that is often 10x (and in the case of MAD, almost 20x) larger than Charlotte.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA

Why? Because smaller markets like Roanoke that provide virtually no feed?

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think.

Nobody is saying that. But those Saturday-onlys won't be needed when they can be served daily from Miami, which connects to all the important feeder markets even today. SJU, AUA, NAS, etc. aren't going anywhere.
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yellowtail
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:14 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc
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AF086
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:16 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies?

Yes. AA can start new services from anywhere in the US to anywhere in Brazil (but GRU) immediately if they feel like. US´ service to GIG does not need to be axed.

And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.
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c172akula
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:17 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

I'd rather AA stay in YYC, if there is room for both them and WS I will be a happy camper.
 
commavia
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:17 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

Let's forget it. At least for years. Not going to happen.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them.

Huh???

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Why would any one think killing a profitable flight to Rio de Janiero is a good idea.

What's profitable now very well may not be post-merger. Shuttling cheap fares between GIG and MCO over CLT isn't my idea of a great business strategy.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 38):
No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright.

What were questioning is whether there is a need for a 650 flight per day hub. I have said that I dont think so, but that I see CLT being more than 400 and less than 500 flights per day. I have also said, there is not much of a need to serve CLT-Europe beyond the UK and Germany on a year round basis and perhaps CDG and MAD in the summer. I have also said, I think BA will come in at some point.

All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe. I think GRU will be re-timed and kept. I dont see them losing any destinations domestically.

Exactly. I think it is almost inevitable that CLT will see some reductions, as it is such a huge hub now, driven in large part by US' lower costs. But AA would be crazy to get rid of such a great hub altogether.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
The WSJ has a good article on AA/US. It isnt like DL/NW or UA/CO. Those mergers were done to make the industry smaller. This is being done to make AA bigger. You wont see AA shrink US the way DL has shrunk or even UA has shrunk.

I don't buy that for one minute any more than I buy Glenn Tilton and Jeff Smisek up on Capitol Hill pitching the "no plans for hub closures" line or the Delta-Northwest dog and pony show with "end-to-end networks." It's all B.S. I feel quite confident that this merger will result in a smaller airline than the sum of the two parts - no matter what P.R. Parker has been spinning or leakers have been positioning in the media.

The only question is where the cuts will happen, and how severe they will be.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:28 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

AA is not ending DFWYYC; but WS, which does codeshare with AA, will join it on DFWYYC in the late spring. Annoucement Monday.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 53):
Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc

No, there isn't whatsoever.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

If yields are good, it's because of US Airways' awesome cost structure, because the average fares on that route absolutely suck.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.

Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?

DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:34 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?
Quoting c172akula (Reply 55):
Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

Part of me is a bit confused on this one. Dont get me wrong, Im thrilled to see a new airline here. That said DFW-YYC is about 75 PDEW and is smaller market than DFW-YYZ, DFW-YVR, and even DFW-YUL. The one advantage I do see is being able to connect people to smaller Canadian cities like YXE, YQR, and YEG that dont have DFW nonstop service.
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crAAzy
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

ORF-MIA has been a solid route at AA for years and is a route that is heavily utilized by military/government traffic into Miami and onwards into South and Central America. In fact, if AA/US do merge the evening flight would probably be an ideal route for the A319.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.

What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA. In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA

If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

What I'm trying to say is that if AA/US do merge, there are going to be more options for some people and that's a good thing. CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:00 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled

I agree. In 2013 AA would be stupid to launch a host of RJ flying into small South East/Mid Atlantic markets, as you say it would be a fast way to loose money. It could have worked in 2001, but things change...



Taking my local market of GSO, we have 2x MIA, 3x DFW, 3x DCA, 5x PHL, 9x CLT.

DCA and PHL are probably not going to see much change. PHL might go down to 4x, but realistically I don't think that this merger will change much heading north given that AA don't fly to NYC or ORD.

Heading south could be a different story. I'm sure many will flame me for saying this, but I could see MIA going completely and DFW back down to 2x, with an upgauge in capacity to CLT. If I want to head to LAX or SFO or IAH or MSY or anywhere else south/west of here, flying 1000mi on a RJ vs 83mi and then mainline from there will - most likely - be more cost effective. Flying me on an A321 for 2125mi from CLT to LAX is clearly going to be most cost effective than 1235 from LAX to DFW and then on an ER4 for 999mi from DFW to GSO. While I'm sure many will argue that DFW will become the main east-west connecting hub (and I don't doubt that they are right) for small(er) markets such as this one flying RJs for such long distances is not, and will not be, a sound business strategy. Instead, I could see some CLT-GSO flights going to EM9 or even A319.

I could copy and paste this logic to other similar sized markets. RDU is clearly immune, and ORF-DFW is mainline so I can't see that one changing much.

Going with RDU, I could see LAX going to 2x daily. US still has a very strong following in NC, and with the proposed day light flight + a red eye, and morning and evening services heading the other way, then AA/US could wipe the floor with DL.
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Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:00 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA.

Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

Well not DFW. I am not interested in South America. Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.

For most places in the USA, CLT is a better connect point than MIA going to the Caribbean. Including from major cities like DCA and BOS ( I dont think AA will cut service from MA to DCA or BOS).

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

You example is not relevant because you have so many parameters that dont apply to 99.9% of the traveling public. For MKE, the best connect point to AUA from the airline's standpoint is CLT, not MIA.

Now I have argued with people about this merger from the beginning and Ive been right all along. There were those who insisted that Delta would be a bidder. I said they wouldnt. There were those who insisted that US and DL would breakup AA, I said they wouldnt and that idea was nonsense.

I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT. Brazil-CLT is a candidate to move to MIA but that is it. I worked in Network Planning at major airlines from 1994-2006 and I know what I am talking about. I have worked on mergers and acqusitions before.

Tell me exactly what Caribbean points will be cancelled to CLT in favor of MIA.


The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:06 pm

I see routes to and from MCO growing as MCO has a lot of traffic to offer to hubs. As for CLT, I see: Growth. I see more routes cut from PHL with them being moved to JFK than CLT.

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N908AW
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:37 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT.

But even then, wouldn't most of those "unique connections" be either demanded enough to warrant a flight from CLT (which has far more western connections than MIA right now), or be so low in demand that it's not worth it for AA/US to save people the hassle of double connecting?

To me, MIA is a great gateway to the Caribbean (less so without as much MIA/SJU regional flying, but still), useful for South America, and a dependable destination for American in the winter. Beyond that, every metric you would use to judge a "hub" in its purest form leans towards continuing to use CLT as your premier hub in the southeast. Far enough north, south, east, and west (if that makes sense) for not only travel to/from the southeast, but it also works as a (relatively) pain-free connection beyond the East Coast. It's a terminal bred through and through to be a connecting hub for US. It's got the O&D. It's got none of the air traffic headaches that JFK and ORD have.
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MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:11 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT

They are all good local markets, and they are good feeders for the MIA Caribbean market. ORF, RIC, and SDF are high fare local markets from Miami with limited capacity. These routes work; and will probably go to ERJ-175s.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.

There is going to be capacity rationalization. CLT is too big for the combined networks. What it does today for US, it will share that purpose with not only MIA and DFW, but also ORD, if the carriers merge. The hub will still be huge - the second largest hub of the combined airline - but huge will still see it reduced by 100-150 daily flights.
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crAAzy
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:22 am

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Unless that flying is contracted out at a cheaper price.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Not true when you have multiple hubs servicing the same catchment areas with different missions.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Shortly after AA/US start operating on the same certificates I can see the following international routes gone from CLT:

I don't have specific data on any of the US's CLT routes but from a rationalization standpoint which of the following routes would be better:

LIR (CLT, DFW, MIA) which is going to draw better from PHL, DCA, IND, LGA, JAX, TLH, MEM, BNA, CVG, BHM, XNA, GPT, ORF, VPS, MSN, MKE, ORD, CLE, DAY, etc. Would the market be better served with 2 or 3 flighs a day to/from MIA and DFW or 1 from CLT, 1 from DFW and 2 from MIA?

If AA/US can sell more premium seats on their 777s, A340s, 763s out of PHL, JFK, MIA, DFW, CLT, or ORD by eliminating flights from one of these areas then you bet they are going to try to do it. The big disadvantage CLT has and people need to realize it that it's not a bad hub but when you stack it up against AA's cornerstones in the Eastern/Central US (JFK, MIA, DFW, ORD) for premium routes and traffic on redundant international flights in the system it's going to lose almost everytime.

Do the same for the following:

BGI (CLT or MIA)
UVF (CLT or MIA)
ANU (CLT or MIA)
SJD (CLT, DFW, MIA)
RIO (CLT, MIA, JFK)
GRU (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW)
MAD (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW, PHL)
DUB (CLT, JFK, ORD, PHL)
CDG (CLT, PHL, JFK, MIA, ORD, DFW)
FRA (CLT, PHL, DFW)
FCO (CLT, PHL, JFK)
BZE (CLT, MIA, DFW)

A combined AA/US are going to look at the numbers and all the data and how can we become more efficient, where's the money and how do we get it and how do we keep it? The answers aren't simple and there are many variables involved but to simply think that CLT is going to remain the best place to serve these routes because it worked for US would be foolish if AA/US combine.
 
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SANFan
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:23 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule
Quoting LHCVG (Reply 26):
My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to me would be the 3 PHX slots
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 39):
I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger


I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US. This route, like the AA LAX-DCA one, were part of last year's DOT proceedings and were picked by the cx themselves. They are both subject to re-assignment (read: cancellation) by the cx at any time with no notice or other restrictions. I do hope that things will not get to a point where the SAN-route might become a pawn in some maneuvering by the "new" carrier or the DOT involving slot reductions, or whatever. (I know that AA would not surrender LA-DC under any circumstances.)

The 3 PHX-DCA exemptions were granted years earlier and under totally different circumstances and (I believe) can't be dropped or swapped without (literally) an act of Congress. Of course that could all be swept aside by the DOT as a part of a merger approval.

I agree that perhaps at least one of those PHX awards might very well go somewhere (but not without a fight first from Senator John McCain!) (In fact I wonder if he will try to get some requirement entered into any merger agreement that the PHX hub NOT be dismantled or even reduced slightly?)

bb
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 66):
I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US.
'fan, you were in the back of my mind whilst typing up my original post.   I'm going to have to do some research on how each series of exemptions came about—it will be a hot topic for sure around here when the merger gets to the point of being submitted for regulatory approval.

If anyone has any info to share in regards to the awarding of the DCA exemptions, or links to old threads, it'd be appreciated. I don't think we'd need to open a new thread to talk about it in depth, as this is the official "routes" thread.
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strfyr51
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:38 am

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):

I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:54 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 68):
I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.

Traffic statistics proove otherwise.

Philadelphia-Asia is absolutely large enough for a daily non-stop.
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WAC
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:59 am

CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA
 
capitalflyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:20 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available. On another thread a poster commented that the merged airline would control something like 2/3 of the slots. Ain't no way DOT will let that happen. You could see a couple dozen slots up for grabs.

With the reduction in slots, I would expect less regional/express flying and more mainline. Less connections as well (which would be good as DCA is an inconvenient connecting airport).

This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:28 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?
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capitalflyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:07 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):
Dulles serves northern Virginia

And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.


The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

IAD's future is continued international growth to the ME and South Asia and getting UA to pony up for a new concourse and trying to attract more LCCs.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:15 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available.

And as we know, a.net loves the smell of blood swirling in the Jet-A in the morning!

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station.

I don't think AA's IAD station is in danger of closing. AA has a long history of a wide array of transcon flights to/from LAX, plus this route continues to support the QF flights at LAX.
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southwest737500
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:19 am

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):

They'll be a reduction but come on think for a second that will most likely NOT happen
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crAAzy
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:20 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?


I'm not sure ... it's got to be a combination of not knowing the area and thinking no one wants/can compete against UA there. A US/AA merger is going to make a big difference in the area and I think they'd be very foolish not to take advantage of the changing dynamics of the FF base in the area.

If anything a combined AA/US will likely grow a little at IAD. They'll already serve LAX, DFW, MIA, CLT and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few additional flights into JFK, PHL, and ORD depending on how the new network ultimately shakes out, especially with Asian routes.
 
EricR
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:24 am

Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.
 
PHX787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:54 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 30):
What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.

Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The demand comes from many Japanese companies beginning to set up shop here in the valley, escaping the economic issues of California.
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Freshside3
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:17 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

Especially since UA gave up on DME. My guess is ORD would be the best, since you already have service on Russian carriers at JFK/MIA to MOW airports and DL/JFK-SVO. However, what really needs to optimize the flight is to include SFO into it, since it has a big Russian market. Best bet would be a thru trip SFO-ORD-DME. And also more code-shares and other cooperation with partner Sibir/S7.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:28 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

So? How is that relevant? There is good demand between Phoenix and the UK, as well as Germany. It makes sense the flight fills.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.
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commavia
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:30 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 73):
And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.

The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

I think that is highly, highly unlikely. IAD serves a market distinct and different from DCA. There is still a compelling business reason to serve that market, even if just with a relatively lighly schedule.

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I could see it - if it were to happen, I would expect a 763 from JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-08 20:32:06]
 
ABQopsHP
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:34 am

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 75):

Exactly! That would be a stupid move, to dehub CLT. AA has had a large hole in the route structure ever since they shuttered the BNA and RDU hubs. CLT is just far enough apart from ORD MIA and NYC to fill a need. I see PHX having more overlap with LAX, than CLT having any with another hub. As they digest the 2 operations, there will be adjustments made to all the hubs, and fleets. Just like DL/NW and UA/CO.

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KBUF
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:49 am

This is as good a chance as any for BUF to get AA mainline back. They'd probably have to bring back BUF-DFW and/or start BUF-MIA, though (currently, BUF's only AA service is Eagle to ORD).
 
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SANFan
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:52 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.

Interesting post. I'm curious why you say, "I think SAN is toast." And yes, I'm sure someone else would love to fly it -- particularly a certain airline based in SEA -- but there would have to be a time and money-consuming hearing to determine what would be become of any beyond-perimeter slots that are surrendered. (And I don't know if anyone, including the govt would want to go through that again so soon.)

And they will be interested in keeping PHX -- 3 nonstops in one market -- why? This will obviously depend on what happens to the PHX hub; if it is dimished or closed, why would the new carrier want or need 3 daily r/t in the market? If it remains a hub, you feel that the carrier would rather have 3 nonstops in that market with none in the SAN-market?

I do notice that on the current schedules, LAS-DCA doesn't even operate daily. I don't know if that's indicitive of anything in particular but it could be telling.

bb
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:00 am

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):
CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA

if anyone seriously believes this then they need to look at a map. JFK-PHL-DCA are nowhere near CLT, and for that matter neither is MIA, ORD or DFW. CLT is in perfect position in the new AA and will likely be the 2nd or 3rd largest hub in the system (I see their big hubs going to be ORD/DFW/CLT). PHL and MIA will be the 4th/5th largest.

I cant see why anyone would think CLT would be closed. Doesnt even make sense, you'd essentially be handing over the keys to the southeast and fastest growing area of the country to DL. Its not going to happen, AA is going to be a big competitor to DL for SE traffic.
 
PHX787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:02 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.


MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.
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CIDFlyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:21 am

I also see CLT gaining some flights to some stronger AA stations in the great lakes/midwest area. Places like PIA/CID/CMI/FWA etc and also places like MSN/MLI/GRR/SPI could see a flight to CLT. US started DSM and OMA last year and those flights are going strong.
 
ckfred
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 5:45 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.

Has the judgment been at all addressed in the bankruptcy proceedings?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 57):
Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.

Considering that AA backed off trying to add Latin American service out of ORD, other than Mexico, you make a valid point. Other than the vacation spots in Mexico, I can't see AA/US keeping any flights out of CLT to Central and South America.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 6:39 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.

Except it is not. Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia. People pay more to fly one way from Miami to Hong Kong or Taipei then they do to fly from Pheonix to Asia round trip. Oh, and Miami-Hong Kong is a larger market than Phoenix-Tokyo.

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

[Edited 2013-02-08 22:41:59]
a.
 
Freshside3
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 10:27 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service......it doesn't appear that it would be a viable route, at least on the surface. But than again, I am also a champion for certain routes that don't appear obvious to most, either, so I can relate to what you are trying to do. Please let me know what reasons you think this will work.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 90):
It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service

He forgot to use the sarcasm font.  
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LAXdude1023
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:32 pm

Ive read talk of Africa throughout some of these thread, so I thought I would chime in with some data. Below are the largest Africa markets from the AA hubs in PDEW. Bear in mind the usual talk of market stimulation:

MIA:

Total Africa PDEW: 200

JNB: 20
CPT: 9
CAI: 8
LOS: 6

ORD:

Total Africa PDEW: 210

LOS: 22
CAI: 20
JNB: 19
NBO: 15
ACC: 9
CPT: 5

DFW:

Total Africa PDEW: 198

LOS: 23
NBO: 20
JNB: 10
ADD: 9
CAI: 8
ACC: 6

NYC:

Total Africa PDEW: 1297

CAI: 275
LOS: 123
JNB: 118
CMN: 100
ACC: 95
NBO: 58
CPT: 43
DKR: 40

Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.
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southwest737500
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 3:41 pm

I expect to get ripped on this post

I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)
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LAXdude1023
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 4:19 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

But its apples and oranges. I cant say, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's networks so therefore, DFW-JNB would print money. On the contrary, it wouldnt.

As far as comparing MIA, PHL, and PHX to Asia, it breaks down like this by local market size in PDEW not including the Indian subcontinent:

MIA:

Total PDEW to Asia: 378

MNL: 66
NRT: 32
HKG: 31
PVG: 29
ICN: 24
PEK: 19
SYD: 18
JKT: 14
SIN: 10

PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26
ICN: 21
MNL: 16
PVG: 14
SGN: 11
TPE: 10


PHL:

Total PDEW to Asia: 215

ICN: 17
NRT: 17
PVG: 17
MNL: 16
PEK: 16
HKG: 14
SYD: 13

One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG. However, MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

I dont think its a matter of filling the plane, that could be done from any of these three with the help of connections. Its doing it profitably.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
lhcvg
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

If the demand were that good, or growing by any substantial amount, there would either be a flight today or serious talk from the airline(s) about opening one. This is the same problem we run into with your CVG arguments - if these new routes or new carriers on existing routes were really that viable, airlines would be directly mentioning them in serious discussions, rather than the talk coming from unsubstantiated and speculative rumors from unnamed sources, pilots, friends, etc.

None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

PHX may be much closer to Asia than MIA, but MIA has a stronger market for Asia traffic. MIA also is in a better position to offer one-stop connecting service between two distant regions (Asia and South and Latin America), to complement the O&D traffic. PHX would only offer another alternative for Asia connections in close proximity to two major Asia gateways from a market that has weak O&D at weak yields.
 
PHX787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:27 pm

Well look at this:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Total PDEW to Asia: 212

That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 95):
None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Well see above here:

I don't know why he said it's not growing, because frankly, it is. I hear from my contacts here in the valley every day about how businesses in cali are proposing to move here due to the better economic conditions that Arizona has to offer (not to mention the amazing weather). The effects of the Californian economic crisis will be made well-apparent within the next few years, and according to one contact, it will be a "mass exodus" of asian business into the valley.

Heck this contact himself moved back into the valley from california (ASU grad 2009) after he convinced his boss that they could make much more of a profit here.

So it's growing. You'll see soon enough...and the addition of an Asian route from PHX to NRT or some other asian hub will only make that growth expand.
I'm not comparing apples to oranges here either. The BA flight is here (and is expanding to daily) because of the high demand, and the demand for asian service is growing.
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lhcvg
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:45 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

To your second point: again, it may well be growing, and I'd bet it is. But how much, how fast, and at what price is that group willing to travel? Correct answers: not enough, not fast enough, and not high enough.

So it's growing indeed, but that has zero relevance to a European flight on BA. That only says there is sufficient traffic to the UK and some onward European (and other random) connections, nothing about Asia. BA just says that PHX can support int'l service to one place, once a day. That's it, nothing more.

And yet again, you continue to rely on "contacts", all of which are unnamed, or like your infamous pilot stories, uncredible by nature. There is nothing you've provided here that is solid, verifiable evidence from a credible and knowledgeable source. Maybe your contact is spot-on, but nobody relevant has publicly stated anything about Asia from PHX. What I mean by relevant: someone in route planning or revenue management from an airline mentioning serious consideration being given to such service (emphasis on serious, not just "well we might take a look at this someday"), or a credible airport source with material knowledge of substantive, latter-stage negotiations with a carrier(s), or a known expert in the field who has weighed in with a considered opinion and analysis.

For example, there was an article a couple months ago saying that the KCAB was in negotiations with B6 to lure them to CVG. There hasn't been anything else since to indicate that B6 is doing anything other than testing the waters and seeing what might be on the table or potentially profitable. That doesn't warrant us saying that B6 is nigh coming to our beloved CVG. Likewise, talk of PHX-Asia is speculation at best at this point. If you have a knowledgeable and credible source like I described above, then fine. But to my knowledge no one has produced such confirmation.

[Edited 2013-02-09 11:51:22]
 
B747forever
Posts: 13878
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:47 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

You are quoting the wrong number.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26

26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!
Work Hard, Fly Right
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MAH4546
Posts: 26609
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:51 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

But Miami bleeds significantly to MCO, too.

Another thing to note is that the traffic figures are 2011, when Japan traffic was hit hard due to the earthquake. MIANRT traditionally has been closer to 50 PDEW, and I'm sure the others took a hit, too.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG.

Not just HKG - MIASIN, MIACAN and surprisingly MIATPE are all very high fare ($1,350+ o/w) markets.
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