AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

AeroWesty · Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:52 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.

B747forever · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:03 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.

People Daily Each Way

AeroWesty · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:05 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):
People Daily Each Way

Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)

IrishAyes · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:09 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

No kidding. The bottleneck here is that AA/OW lacks a decent partner in Africa. ST has KQ and Star has ET. I'm still hoping for that MIAJNB flight to eventually come online.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

+ Latin America feed. PHX does not have that.

I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?

B747forever · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:14 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 102):
Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):People Daily Each Way
Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.

CaliAtenza · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:14 pm

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

AeroWesty · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:16 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 104):
Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.

People misquote the numbers without dividing them in half all of the time. The numbers were stated without provenance.

LAXdude1023 · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:21 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

I already did it for you. 26 is the number per direction.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 99):

No doubt, MCO and MIA bleed to each other. I've always said that a MIA-NRT flight needs to be marketed as a Florida-Asia connection as opposed to an Asia-Latin America connection.

crAAzy · Sat Feb 09, 2013 8:34 pm

Does anyone think AA could make DFW-MNL work?

adamh8297 · Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 97):
Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

A lot of folks may not fly that non-stop flight

1) You have to factor in those price sensitive customers who may do bizarre things like fly PHX-ATL-NRT to save a few bucks in the face of adding a few hours to their travel time.

2) Convenient one-stop competition is pretty tough too with multiple flights to LAX and SFO everyday. Not to split hairs but PHX-SFO-ICN is shorter than PHX-NRT-ICN though connecting on the way home in SFO will be a pain as in all connections from international to domestic in the USA.

3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

4) IMHO - JL's NRT hub isn't the greatest for connecting options as well.

LAXdude1023 · Sat Feb 09, 2013 9:58 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 108):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?

PHX787 · Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:05 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

And going to what LHCVG said I think maybe my credibility was shot when I posted a thread about a crazy rumor a pilot told me, just know that I didn't believe the rumor and the whole purpose for me posting that thread was simply to point out how nuts the rumor was.

Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?

willzzz88 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:05 am

Regarding MNL btw, I'm surprised AA isn't codesharing on JL's NRT-MNL flight? When you search for MNL on AA.com you need to select "AA, American Eagle, AmericanConnection® and oneworld" instead of just "AA, American Eagle and AmericanConnection®". In my opinion AA should be code-sharing to ALL of JL'es Asia destinations and that includes NRT-DEL.

AAIL86 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:09 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

Well I think probably all of us a-nuters have our pet routes that we would love to see operated. When I lived in Dallas my pet route was DFW-HEL. But my desire to see that operated doesn't mean I'd sit here say "gosh its going to happen".

PHX-NRT would be a highly marginal route at best.

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....
P.S. DFW-Africa is a fools errand.

B747forever · Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:41 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

But that is my point. You cannot quote the PDEW for all of PHX-Asia and use it as case for a PHX-NRT flight. There is no way that all of those PAX would choose to fly via NRT.

LAXdude1023 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:12 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

My thoughts on a PHX-NRT flight boil down to this: Can you fill a plane from PHX-NRT with hubs on both sides? Absolutely. Can you make a profit on a PHX-NRT given the O&D yields between PHX and Asia? I dont think so.

I would love to be proven wrong on that last part, I really would. For the record, I like Phoenix. I spent a very large portion of my life living in Los Angeles and LA county. I was living there when I joined a.net (hence the name LAXdude1023). I used to visit Phoenix 3 or 4 times a year to visit friends and I have never had a negative experience there.

All of that said, I feel bad for Phoenix with regard to this merger. Its going to lose on every level. The jobs are going to be sent to Texas by the hundreds and its going to lose the HQ. I hate to tell you, but PHX is going to smaller after the merger than it is now. Now then, do I think PHX is going to be downsized to a hub or focus city? Absolutely not. I also think the comparisons to STL, PIT, and even CVG are unfounded. PHX is a much larger market (albeit lower yielding) than any of those. I see PHX being about 30% smaller, but retaining every city on the East and West Coast. Where I think PHX loses out are cities in the Midwest and smaller regional flights. Think SLC not STL for looking at PHX's future. I also think WN will step in and fill some of the void.

I know you love your city man. I feel for you guys, I really do. If the merger meant DFW losing what PHX will lose, I feel the exact same way.

crAAzy · Sun Feb 10, 2013 2:25 am

Re: DFW-MNL

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 110):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?

I was just wondering if a higher density 772 with J,W,Y might work at AA's largest hub considering possible military traffic, the number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

MAH4546 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 3:56 am

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....

Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.

9w748capt · Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:45 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?

No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.

lhcvg · Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:01 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?

Of course you don't have to name all contacts used to source a story--and I'll be the first one to defend the right of a journalist to use unnamed sources when deemed necessary to get a major scoop on a story that wouldn't be doable otherwise. But blatant speculation using friends of yours doesn't fit that. No one is asking you to name your friends so we can quiz them; the issue is that you continue to rely on friends, parents, "contacts", etc. -- all of whom are of dubious merit because they lack the necessary substantive, material knowledge to contribute verifiable information to the debate at hand. Whether it's a CVG or PHX discussion, you always seem to have "sources" or "contacts", but as I said earlier, none of those are ever in any position to have substantive on the issue. My point about names was just that you aren't providing us anything that is really earth-shattering, and so sensitive that it might have be reported on deep background. Thus, if you really have info to sway this, you'd have some kind of citations or identifiable names to attribute your assertions to. The key here is that these friends/contacts of yours are not people "in the know", otherwise you'd have provided information to that effect to bolster their claims that you relay on here.

Like I said before, if your friends/contacts are right, that's great -- good for them, and I'm happy for them. But you have a history of producing rumors and speculation that is heavily dosed with blatant homerism bias and personal opinion, while being rather light on the hard facts that would be useful to us here.

Freshside3 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:54 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I'm also surprised that nobody is flying to St. Petersburg, either, not even Aeroflot.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 49):
I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that will produce decent yields in peak season, and can use domestic gates at CLT due to CBP in Dublin. It was launched probably because it was a quick, easy win using existing resources.

Keep in mind that SFO, who should have a seasonal/non-daily DUB flight, doesn't. And although there are connections via LHR, many SF Irish refuse to do so, for political reasons. Plus there is a big demand for Ireland from SAV, and this offers an alternate connection besides ATL........so really, SFO/SAV figure into the success of CLT-DUB more than most people would suspect initially.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 93):
I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)

I always was under the impression that AA always had its eye on acquiring AS, but they wanted to stay indpendent. The AA/AS code-shares work well here in SEA.

AAIL86 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:00 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 116):
number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Maybe, but a lot can happen between now and 2015-2016. Unless the market outlook worldwide gets significantly better, my gut feeling is that they won't.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.

Agreed on the US-ZA market being hard to define because of double ticketing. Even so, given the fares I regularly see on ATL-JNB I doubt DL is breaking the bank on that route, and DL's connectivity at ATL is probably double what AA now has at MIA. Let me ask you this (and I'll quallfy it by saying that I'd love to see AA give MIA-Africa a go) - if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't AA (or someone else) operating it already?

For me, the BK process and the (potential) merger with US gives AA a great chance to go back and compete aggressively in the New York market, and as LaxDude1023 pointed out, probably their best chance for success on US-Africa.

SonomaFlyer · Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:12 pm

AA could very well return to India flying when they take delivery of 787s. It is challenging to make money given the distances involved (fuel costs) plus the limited premium travel demand but it could work from ORD or JFK.

I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

AA has a great opportunity to leverage their MIA hub for growth to Africa and other points in the Southern Hemisphere. MIA's geographical location, large population and a combined US/AA network should make this a gold mine.

MAH4546 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:24 pm

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't SA)">AA (or someone else) operating it already?

SA would love to operate via FLL/MIA, like it has in the past. Instead of DKR, but new rules instituted after 9/11 put an end to that. And let's be realistic here: it's a Star carrier and needs to fly to Star hubs.

As for SA)">AA flying to ZA via JFK, no, I don't think that's a good idea at all, because the feed from JFK is nowhere near ample enough, and the route needs feed.

And if SA)">AA had the aircraft to fly MIAJNB non-stop, I'm sure it would have considered it. It doesn't, until now with the 77W and 787.

nutsaboutplanes · Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:26 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
I'm not saying CLT is going to shrink dramatically but I personally see this merger as a big win for MIA ... if AA doesn't run out of room.

I see MIA as static, I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.

MesaFlyGuy · Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:34 pm

If this merger does go through, what does it spell for the ISP flights? They are consistently full, with US adding a third daily frequency on ISP-DCA in October. Will we see a reduction in service or any changes in routes?

Maybe MQ would give ISP-ORD another try?

IrishAyes · Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:45 pm

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Aaw, how could I forget??! Stupid me. Where is that inane bully right now?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Mark, I often agree with your posts and rational, but I'm not sure I am on the same page with you on this one. I don't think that ORDDEL was a profitable, good performer prior to the AI nonstop. It was a survivor at best.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.

which makes me hesitant to believe AA will put India high on the priority list again. Notice how DL has not re-ventured into their nonstop US-India flights since they were axed in 2008/2009.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 122):
I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

MNL is an ultra, ultra low-yielding market and geographically/practically speaking, is best routed via NRT for connections. Philippines is such a weird market. PAL is the only airline that flies nonstop US/Canada-MNL and those routes appear to drive the majority of their long-haul profits.

commavia · Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:13 pm

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I see MIA as static

I don't. AA has been growing consistently for years, and I don't see that slowing down anytime soon. I think AA's MIA hub has more "runway" left to go on growth - I see further expansion, both domestically and internationally, with or without a merger.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.

I agree this merger will have little direct impact on MIA, but again, I see that as meaning MIA continues to grow unabated as it has been for AA for pretty much the last decade.

DTWLAX · Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:15 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.

Airlines will not start routes based on written petitions. Even if the entire population of PHX signed the petition, ANA/JL will not start PHX service because they know that route is not viable for them. What places can you connect to at PHX that you cannot from the ANA/JL destinations on the west coast?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia.

But will the combined airline have the right aircraft to operate the route profitably?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

That is funny! How about signing a petition to start nonstop Asia service from Boise?

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
ST has KQ and Star has ET.

Star also has SA

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):
Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

I do not think so, especially with AI jumping on the route now.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 109):
3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

Or PHX-LAX-NRT

Vctony · Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:16 pm

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:10]

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:48]

PHX787 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:18 pm

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.

Vctony · Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:28 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 130):
Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.

First, I corrected my mistake with LAX twice. I meant LAS and not LAX.

PHX is going to be cut because the market just will not work for a "major" air carrier. WN flies just about everywhere from PHX and has a strong hold on the O/D market. With re-purposing some of the FL assets, I can see WN growing slightly at PHX.

We also must remember is that PHX has ALREADY been cut from what it once was when it was the main hub of HP. The reason why PHX was cut at that time is that some of the routes made more sense out of DCA, CLT, and PHL (and with the HP aircraft) they were able to move those assets (and some of the LAS assets) out East. PHX is surviving today because the next hub to the East of it in the US network is CLT which is clear across the country. DFW and ORD negate almost all of the need for PHX in the network. Not to mention DFW and ORD are located in larger metropolitan areas with scores of Fortune 500 HQs. With the US headquarters leaving town, PHX will be down to a paltry 5 Fortune 500 company headquarters.

PHX is a low yielding hub that benefits from US's current cost structure. When it moves to AA's cost structure, it's going to start bleeding money. It's essentially the west coast version of PIT and US bled money there for years before it decided to cut its losses.

adamh8297 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:51 pm

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

They may keep 1-2 weekly PHX-SJD/PVR/CUN/ZIH/MZT as well for aircraft utilization.

Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Also, if WN decides to re-enter the market BOS-PHX is a goner.

PHX787 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:02 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

WS and AC are seasonal and leisure, except I think some AC routes to YYZ carry on to Europe sometimes. Same with Vancouver to Asia (someone I knew flew PHX to Vancouver and on to PEK or something)

For US I think those are either connecting or business-related O and D.

LAXdude1023 · Sun Feb 10, 2013 11:15 pm

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Well to be fair, DFW-GDL and PHX-GDL are about the same size. DFW-MEX is, however, is over 3x larger than PHX-MEX.

The markets in Mexico (and all of Central America) where PHX is larger than or equal to DFW:

GDL
HMO
PVR
MZT

and thats it.

All that said, I think PHX keeps GDL/MEX/HMO/SJD/MZT/CUN/ZIH.

I also think PHX keeps BOS no matter if WN enters.

EricR · Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:57 am

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.
PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.
My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO..

Sounds about right. Two other possible wild cards are DEN and SLC. In terms of passengers carried, DEN is the #1 destination from PHX. Also, PHX is the #2 destination from SLC in terms of passengers carried.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):

Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC..

I doubt it. In addition to WS and AC, G4 also has been siphoning off some Canadian traffic. Although G4 does to fly into Canada proper, some 75% of the Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the border and are known to travel to places like GFK, BIS, or MOT to catch a cheap N/S flight to Phoenix.

[Edited 2013-02-10 17:52:43]

nutsaboutplanes · Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:03 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 127):
I agree this merger will have little direct impact on MIA, but again, I see that as meaning MIA continues to grow unabated as it has been for AA for pretty much the last decade.

You said it better than I did

That is exactly what I "tried" to say...........I dont see the merger impacting MIA in any significant way, however, MIA will continue to do what it has been doing and that is only positive.

allegiantflyer · Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:21 am

I think if AA want to be the dominant international carrier that they are going for than they REALLY need to step it up in Africa and the Fastly growing Middle east.

CAI,JNB,LOS,DXB,DOH are some good starters but it would be interesting to go for something out of the box like CMN

BlueLine · Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:07 am

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 125):
If this merger does go through, what does it spell for the ISP flights? They are consistently full, with US adding a third daily frequency on ISP-DCA in October. Will we see a reduction in service or any changes in routes?

Maybe MQ would give ISP-ORD another try?

I don't know why AA or UA don't have at least a regional partner on this route. I flew it twice a year on AA until '96 (my family started driving from Chicago to Long Island over the fear that TW 800 was shot down) and two to three times a year on WN until they dropped MDW-ISP last year. There were a few flights a day on WN and they were always nearly or completely full. I hope AA will restart this route in the near future.

MesaFlyGuy · Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:39 am

Quoting BlueLine (Reply 138):

I hope it will starrt again too. I know WN just moved the flight over to LGA.

Vctony · Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:46 am

Quoting EricR (Reply 135):
Sounds about right. Two other possible wild cards are DEN and SLC. In terms of passengers carried, DEN is the #1 destination from PHX. Also, PHX is the #2 destination from SLC in terms of passengers carried.

I didn't include PHX - DEN or PHX - SLC on my list as both routes are heavily dominated by WN and both also have another fortress hub at the other end. I can see them staying as "wild cards".

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

b377 · Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:08 am

What I haven't seen in this tread are two major route issues:

Will the new AA operate with the present AA scheduling policy. Currently all flights from a hub to a spoke, with few exceptions, are required to return to the same hub. Will there be some selective 1 stops scheduled between the new hubs? ie. ORD-SLC-LAX or JFK-PHX-LAX, etc.

What happens to the US FLL flights? It appears that they have more flights scheduled to FLL than at MIA. I am certain that they no longer would want to connect to B6/NK for their Caribbean/South American networks. Is the ticket price difference enough to sustain operations there or will they gradually move them over to MIA?

[Edited 2013-02-10 23:12:22]

PHX787 · Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:17 am

Quoting Vctony (Reply 140):
I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

WN isn't going to be able to fill the whole void SHOULD AA choose to end the hub here. NK and G4 would never be able to operate here either. AZA is perfect for G4's business structure, and same with NK.

Unless some other mainliner starts up ops here at PHX under this worst-case scenario or a new airline is practically created, i'm not sure whats going to happen.

lhcvg · Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:31 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 142):

No doubt PHX will see a net reduction, possibly a large one, in flights, but PHX still has a viable reduced role as a reliever for LAX for connecting traffic, and whatever routings make more sense through there than LAX. It's not going away entirely - think PHL vs. JFK.

Caryjack · Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:53 am

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
Quoting crAAzy (Reply 116):
number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Not sure where you got the $1200. My trip to Nicaruagua (SEA, MIA, MGA, MIA, DFW, SEA) in Y looks like about $700 on AA. I've done it many times and has been up to your number...but DFW to the "Caribbean cruise destinations" must be less, Right?
Thanks,

Cary

Beardown91737 · Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:04 am

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
WN flies just about everywhere from PHX and has a strong hold on the O/D market. With re-purposing some of the FL assets, I can see WN growing slightly at PHX.

US flies to 70+ destinations, which is more than the entire WN network before FL. WN, with FL flies to about 45 places from PHX, and that is a lot for WN.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
DFW and ORD negate almost all of the need for PHX in the network.

When US management gets to Ft Worth, they should take a look at the long and thin routes out of DFW which should be funneled though a PHX connection instead. PHX provides an inter-west distribution point (even though I admit DEN is in the best position and SLC is marginally second best).

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

The O/D plus the connections from California and Vegas. If you move that to DFW you wind up needing to sustain the PMAA level of MD80 service to FAT, ONT, and the like to feed the DFW-MEX. As far as GDL, they can just give it to AM.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 140):
While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

G4 isn't the kind of airline that replaces daily service on a network carrier that can offer connections. Neither is Southwest, which flies to about 65 cherry picked destinations, plus whatever they keep from the Airtran acquisition.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 119):
you have a history of producing rumors and speculation that is heavily dosed with blatant homerism bias and personal opinion

Homerism is rampant on US/AA threads, no need to call out individuals on it.

commavia · Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:27 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 145):
When US management gets to Ft Worth, they should take a look at the long and thin routes out of DFW which should be funneled though a PHX connection instead.

So AA should shift flying away from one of the largest, strongest, best-located hubs in the country and instead shift them to what is almost certainly among the lowest-yielding, and is definitely among the most-competitive, hubs in the country?

Almost without exception, AA offers far more connectivity - both domestic and international - and, again, is almost certainly higher-yielding. The only market in which PHX is really in a better geographic position to handle connections than DFW is California-Colorado/New Mexico/Arizona/ELP. Beyond that, nearly every connection PHX now handles can be more directly handled over DFW or ORD.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 145):
PHX provides an inter-west distribution point

No it doesn't.

PHX is too far east and too far south to really serve as an meaningful "inter-west" connecting point, and what it does handle it is suboptimal for. Any "inter-west" connections routed through PHX are almost certainly sold at a yield discount to the more direct alternatives. As an example, odds are that somebody flying SEA-SAN via PHX is going to pay less than if flying on a more direct routing through SFO, SJC, LAX, etc., not to mention of course the nonstops.

Again, the only "inter-west" traffic flow for which PHX is reasonably well-situated geographically are California to Colorado/New Mexico/Arizona/ELP. But again, most of the markets we're talking about are already well-served by nonstops overflying PHX (including AA's own flights LAX-DEN/ABQ/TUS/ELP).

MastaHanky · Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:06 pm

I was looking at the international O&D numbers for PHX, and it surprised me how little demand there is to both Asia and deep South America.

To put it into perspective, lowly SLC had higher O&D to places like NRT, ICN and PEK than PHX did for the same time period (2011). SLC also had higher O&D to Sydney and major population centers in deep South America like GRU, EZE and LIM.

PHX definitely has healthy international demand, but the vast majority of it appears to be Canadian snowbirds (9 of the top 20 O&Ds) and Mexico (6 of the top 20). Based on that, I'm guessing the odds of an Asia link to PHX aren't very good for the foreseeable future.

Freshside3 · Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:15 pm

Yes, there is one route that would work for PHX and MIA, which is, well, PHX-MIA. Spring training for Major League Baseball is split up between Florida and Arizona. Have it for two months out of the year---there are a lot of people that go to BOTH the "Cactus" and "Grapefruit" league games.

Players often do get traded from one team to another during this period. When you have players relocate at the last minute, there is no 7-day advance discount......MLB teams have to pay full-fare. They don't use a team charter for this.

Additionally, coordinating the time with the existing MIA-SDQ would be good, too, with players coming over from the Dominican. Also, you'll probably get a few Arizonans that are headed for cruises on this one, too.

Question is, what's going to happen the other 10 months of the year?

Freshside3 · Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:24 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 108):
Does anyone think AA could make DFW-MNL work?

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 126):
MNL is an ultra, ultra low-yielding market and geographically/practically speaking, is best routed via NRT for connections. Philippines is such a weird market. PAL is the only airline that flies nonstop US/Canada-MNL and those routes appear to drive the majority of their long-haul profits.

A lot of money in freight on this route, which can offset the low passenger ticket prices. But really and truly, DFW?? I can see a China flight out of a Texas hub(IAH more so than DFW), but not to the Phil's.

DFW would work for those in ORF/ORD/MCO/PHL which have some demand for the Phil's......but you don't have the biggest markets----SFO/LAX/SAN/SEA/LAS as part of it, therefore not enough to make it viable.Has to be West Coast or nothing.

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