Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:38 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 146):
Any "inter-west" connections routed through PHX are almost certainly sold at a yield discount to the more direct alternatives. As an example, odds are that somebody flying SEA-SAN via PHX is going to pay less than if flying on a more direct routing through SFO, SJC, LAX, etc., not to mention of course the nonstops.

From PDX, US, with few exceptions here and there, is usually one of the more expensive connecting options. Their nonstops to PHX are usually the cheapest, or tied for cheapest, when purchased in advance.
International Homo of Mystery
 
hausauflennon
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:52 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:45 pm

I believe, from the Barbadian perspective, that should these two merge, that we will lose AA's JFK-BGI (as is the trend in many other Caribbean destinations thus far) and we will certainly lose US's once weekly CLT-BGI. I can see Miami being retained twice daily, or perhaps bumped up to a thrice daily service with 737-800s instead of the 757-200 service we see now.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6224
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:47 pm

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 149):
A lot of money in freight on this route, which can offset the low passenger ticket prices. But really and truly, DFW?? I can see a China flight out of a Texas hub(IAH more so than DFW), but not to the Phil's.

DFW would work for those in ORF/ORD/MCO/PHL which have some demand for the Phil's......but you don't have the biggest markets----SFO/LAX/SAN/SEA/LAS as part of it, therefore not enough to make it viable.Has to be West Coast or nothing.

Well, considering DFW-MNL is much larger than ORF/PHL-MNL and is also larger than MCO-MNL by a smaller margin, your comparrison makes no sense.

That said DFW-MNL would bleed money from day one and never quit. It not even worth discussing the prospects.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26467
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:19 pm

Quoting MastaHanky (Reply 147):
To put it into perspective, lowly SLC had higher O&D to places like NRT, ICN and PEK than PHX did for the same time period (2011). SLC also had higher O&D to Sydney and major population centers in deep South America like GRU, EZE and LIM.



But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.
a.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:50 pm

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 151):
I believe, from the Barbadian perspective, that should these two merge, that we will lose AA's JFK-BGI

Not sure why that would be. AA can cancel that now. US has no bearing on JFK-BGI.
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2444
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:45 pm

Quoting dtwlax (Reply 128):
Star also has SA

Yes, but SA is a disaster right now. The real gold mine lies in ET at the moment which is keen on creating a "mini-DXB" hub over ADD to connect East-West, North-South traffic flows between Asia, Africa, ME, Europe, North America, South America and Oceania. KQ is similarly trying to develop the model at NAI.

These are huge, lucrative assets for ST and Star, but I suppose in that same vein you will eventually have QR filling the void for OW. It would still be valuable for OW to have a stable African partner.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 130):
Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Nobody is questioning the future existence of PHX. It's moreso questioning the future SIZE of PHX, which will inevitably experience reduction as part of the merger synergies, while nevertheless remaining some important magnitude and scale. That obviously does not call for a viable NRT flight in the future, sorry to burt the bubble.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 153):
But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.

This is OT, but I always am intrigued by why DL could not make SLCNRT work, and opted to retain PDXNRT and SFONRT over SLC.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2278
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:49 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 155):
This is OT, but I always am intrigued by why DL could not make SLCNRT work, and opted to retain PDXNRT and SFONRT over SLC.

Larger local traffic.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2278
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:56 pm

Also something I haven't seen discussed yet is the LGA-BOS, LGA-DCA shuttle product AA will be branding under the combined carrier. I know they tried to duplicate this in the past using Eagle Barbie jets, but this seems it would be a significant addition to their overall domestic operation. I am not sure how much revenue this generates though - I seem to recall the Acela trains have taken a serious bite out of the shuttle.
 
apodino
Posts: 4040
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:22 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 157):
Also something I haven't seen discussed yet is the LGA-BOS, LGA-DCA shuttle product AA will be branding under the combined carrier. I know they tried to duplicate this in the past using Eagle Barbie jets, but this seems it would be a significant addition to their overall domestic operation. I am not sure how much revenue this generates though - I seem to recall the Acela trains have taken a serious bite out of the shuttle.

There is still a small market for the shuttles, but you are right, the Acela...the Door to Door Limo services, and even the Bus lines have taken a huge chunk out of the shuttle market. The DCA-BOS part of the shuttle is still lucrative though. Given the fact that the carriers are going to be big in both LGA and DCA, the LGA-DCA is going to be exclusively O and D driven, and while there is plenty of that, there isn't plenty enough that is going to chose air travel in that market, so either the shuttle is going away, or is going to become RJ driven.

I would expect a slight uptick on DCA-JFK to feed any international routes through JFK. BOS is a bit trickier, but I would suspect that any international traffic would be codeshared on BA through LHR instead of routed to JFK.


It is obvious to me that both JFK and PHL are going to have roles in a future European network. The biggest question I have going forward is how is it going to be distributed? The rest of the route structure is obvious. CLT will be primarily a domestic hub wtih a bit of International traffic to a few markets to relieve other places. MIA will continue to be a Latin America hub, etc. It is how the european feed will be divided among the east coast stations that is of interest to me going forward.

That being said, A West in PHL I believe has more FIS capable gates than T8 in JFK, am I not mistaken? That is the other big factor in play.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:48 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
There is still a small market for the shuttles, but you are right, the Acela...the Door to Door Limo services, and even the Bus lines have taken a huge chunk out of the shuttle market.

I think where the Shuttle will help AA is with corporate customers - in all three markets, but particularly in New York. I agree it is certainly no cash cow as it may have been 20-30 years ago, but it likely still has value, particularly when combined with AA's now-far-larger overall NYC network/presence, particularly with corporate customers.

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
It is obvious to me that both JFK and PHL are going to have roles in a future European network. The biggest question I have going forward is how is it going to be distributed?

On a pure flight-for-flight basis, I think JFK will stay largely unchanged, other than picking up perhaps a few additional routes to Europe (I could see a 757 to FRA and GLA, possibly a flight TLV). JFK is ideal as an O&D gateway for the vast NYC local market, particular as AA has - and will continue to have - the nicest facility at JFK among U.S. majors. PHL will remain the key transatlantic gateway, particularly for continental Europe: I see little change beyond shifting emphasis from Star to oneworld (i.e., additional LHR/MAD/BCN, reduced FRA, eliminated MUC/ZRH), and cutting ATH.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4197
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:53 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 158):
That being said, A West in PHL I believe has more FIS capable gates than T8 in JFK, am I not mistaken? That is the other big factor in play.

I think there are 13 FIS gates in PHL A-west. There are also I think 5 FIS gates in PHL A-east. With a merger US/AA would pretty much own all of A and I presume they could spend the money to renovate A-east to make all gates FIS capable. A-east is due for a much needed overhaul.
 
Beardown91737
Posts: 896
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:56 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:46 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 146):
So AA should shift flying away from one of the largest, strongest, best-located hubs in the country and instead shift them to what is almost certainly among the lowest-yielding, and is definitely among the most-competitive, hubs in the country?

Not at all. AA as we know it today does not have the capability.

When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.
135 hrs PIC (mostly PA-28) - not current. Landings at MDW, PIA, JAN.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:49 am

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.

With respect, I think that is completely divorced from economic reality.

If there is to be shifting of capacity between PHX and DFW, it will almost certainly be more from PHX to DFW, not the other way around.

The allegedly "expensive dogleg" of DFW is also a profitable one - DFW is a higher-yielding market than PHX, and can take advantage of economies of scale that dwarf anything PHX could ever possibly achieve, along with serving far, far more places far more geogaphically dispersed than PHX could ever possible achieve. PHX is not going to be able to handle the same amount of capacity it now does - let alone more - at the combined (higher) costs of a merged airline.
 
cjpmaestro
Posts: 136
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2011 1:19 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:10 am

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

I have to agree as much as I don't want too. Even my friends at USin PHX agree. I would tend to agree with the assessments of about a 30% cut. That is about 175-200 flights a day at max. Outside of the hubs I expect some of the Mexico and BOS routes to last. Some Canadian and upper mid west routes could go seasonal. The wild card to me are the northwest routes which are very popular for business and leisure from SEA, PDX, GEG and BOI
from PHX.
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:12 am

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW

Are you suggesting something along the lines of a scaled down regional hub for PHX, so that a passenger traveling say between SAN and OMA could continue to transfer at PHX rather than be forced to go through DFW, which adds a third more distance-wise?
International Homo of Mystery
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3315
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:14 am

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel.

I'm not quite understanding how you think PHX is a viable intra-west or mountain west connecting point. SEA-MCI, SFO-COS or BIL-RNO are not economically feasible over PHX.
 
Vctony
Posts: 687
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 1999 10:51 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:35 am

Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 163):

I live in the PHX area. The merger is going to be awful for PHX because unlike other cities that lost their hub carrier, fares at PHX weren't astronomically high so we had the benefits of having lots of flights to lots of places without completely breaking the bank as we had WN / US. While I can see WN growing its presence at PHX and filling some of the void, as well as G4 and NK probably starting PHX operations, I just don't think PHX will ever have the breadth of flights or coverage that it had before the merger.

I have to agree as much as I don't want too. Even my friends at USin PHX agree. I would tend to agree with the assessments of about a 30% cut. That is about 175-200 flights a day at max. Outside of the hubs I expect some of the Mexico and BOS routes to last. Some Canadian and upper mid west routes could go seasonal. The wild card to me are the northwest routes which are very popular for business and leisure from SEA, PDX, GEG and BOI
from PHX.

I live in the PHX area as well. This merger is horrible for the local market. The only positives I can think of is that it could potentially open the door for a larger AS or B6 operation (although both are doubtful). If F9 was still relatively healthy or FL still independent, I wouldn't be as worried about the merger. The worst thing is that the local media is believing what US officials say and they actually are reporting that the merger could lead to an increase in flights.
 
peanuts
Posts: 980
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 1:17 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:26 am

Good grief, these threads are getting long. I may have missed some posts but any speculation on AMS? Finally AA in AMS right? In what form? PHL as is? Something else? Add MIA while they're at it...
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6224
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:18 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 161):
When the new management gets to Ft. Worth, they have the opportunity to tune the network they acquired. Part of this is to use their existing PHX hub to move pax between the southwestern US, and the midwest without the expensive dogleg to DFW, and also avoid expensive backhauls for intra west travel. Certainly DFW will remain a mega fortress hub, but minus some frequencies on less efficient routes which are currently served by not so efficient aircraft.

Ill bite.

The only route I see that potentially being an issue with are PSP and FAT. Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What else did you have in mind?
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2535
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:42 pm

I for one will be incredibly unhappy to see Star Alliance lose a significant presence in DCA. My Star domestic flying will be disemboweled. I'm not traveling out to IAD to get on a UA CRJ that much anymore.  
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys. Citizenship/Residence::: Washington DC, US; Vaud, CH; Providenciales, TCI (hence my avi)
 
AAIL86
Posts: 466
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2011 6:00 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:44 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 159):
I think where the Shuttle will help AA is with corporate customers - in all three markets, but particularly in New York. I agree it is certainly no cash cow as it may have been 20-30 years ago, but it likely still has value, particularly when combined with AA's now-far-larger overall NYC network/presence, particularly with corporate customers.

The shuttle does currently have some value – but its future prospects look pretty bleak. Amtrak is far more convenient, reliable, less prone to weather delays, and more comfortable(which is why they have, for example - 75% market share of air-rail travel between New York and Washington). Whatever happens to Amtrak on a national scale, the routes along the northwest corridor are only going to get better trainsets with faster speeds, and the shuttle will get less and less ridership. Perhaps if a merger does go through - now would be a good time to consider scraping the shuttle entirely?
" Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness ... Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime. ” - Mark Twain, 1869
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:51 pm

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 170):
Whatever happens to Amtrak on a national scale, the routes along the northwest corridor are only going to get better trainsets with faster speeds, and the shuttle will get less and less ridership. Perhaps if a merger does go through - now would be a good time to consider scraping the shuttle entirely?

It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:56 pm

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 156):
Larger local traffic.

HNL/SFO/LAX connections work just fine. No real need for SLC-NRT.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 153):
But SLC is an anomaly for cities it's size, because it has missionary traffic. And a lot of that traffic doesn't neccesarily "originate" in SLC, but rather from all over, with groups gathering in Salt Lake City and flying together.

Likewise, some of the so-called "SYD" traffic are actually headed for Samoa or Tonga. Extremely limited schedules to PPG/APW/TBU....so many of the LDS missionaries will overnight in SYD/AKL, but generally 1-2 days only.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 154):
Not sure why that would be. AA can cancel that now. US has no bearing on JFK-BGI.

I would think, if anything, MORE Barbados is needed. Starting to get popular now, thanks to popular singer Rihanna. Many people had never heard of the country before, are now going.
 
ckfred
Posts: 5189
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:04 pm

One question to consider is flying between an AA hub and a former US hub. On ORD-PHL, AA flies 5 times a day (1 MD-80, 4 CRJs) and US flies 7 times a day, all A320 family.

On ORD-CLT, AA flies 5 Embrears, while US flies 6 roundtrips (A320s and A321s).

Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1771
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:42 pm

Also curious what those of you in the know feel will happen to places like my current homebase OKC - will we stay about the same or get a few adds? I'm hoping with the Ejets coming on we'll get some upgauged service to ORD. I don't see OKC-PHX being added with the inevitable drawdown at PHX. Not only that but US tried OKC-PHX a few years ago and failed. The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.
 
n737aa
Posts: 226
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:00 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
Also curious what those of you in the know feel will happen to places like my current homebase OKC - will we stay about the same or get a few adds? I'm hoping with the Ejets coming on we'll get some upgauged service to ORD. I don't see OKC-PHX being added with the inevitable drawdown at PHX. Not only that but US tried OKC-PHX a few years ago and failed. The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.

Way to close to DFW and ORD for that matter to think PHX or PHL service is even on the radar. But you do have that odd sequence to LAX which is going 3x soon I believe....so anything is possible, I guess....lol

N737AA
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:53 pm

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL? Unlikely OKC-JFK due to slot constraints, but it'd be nice to have something other than UA's OKC-EWR as a nonstop connection to the east coast.

One of the problems for US in a market like OKC (or TUL, OMA or DSM) is that the merger really didn't help things much because neither HP nor US was very strong there. There was not a lot of synergy, and few of the "flyover markets" have seen a lot of additional US capacity since the merger. In contrast, many of those markets, especially TUL and OKC, are strong AA markets where the AAdvantage base could support service to PMUS hubs that did not work pre-merger. I wouldn't say that OKC-PHL is a slam dunk by any means, but I also wouldn't immediately discount the possibility.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
IrishAyes
Posts: 2444
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2008 6:04 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:06 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 168):
The only route I see that potentially being an issue with are PSP and FAT. Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What about the return of the mAAck (ha ha) to BUR and OAK?

Quoting ckfred (Reply 173):
Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

Very possible. Noticeably, the UA/CO merger brought a lot more mainline to routes like ORD-CLE, ORD-IAH and ORD-EWR.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:53 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 171):
It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.

I think the point being made - which I agree with - is that even with the existing infrastructure of the allegedly "high speed" Acela, it is still faster and more convenient than the air shuttles. On the other hand, I also agree with you that the shuttle flights likely are safe - at least for some time. They may well see reductions in capacity - as has already been progressively happening with both DL and US for a decade - but I do think there is still value in being able to bundle the high-frequency shuttle with other flying in order to attract corporate contracts.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 173):
Presumably, the combined carrier wouldn't continue the same number of roundtrips on these two routes, but I would expect each route to be all mainline. Depending on schdules and connecting traffic, I also assume that a lot of hub-to-hub would see fewer of the A319s and MD-80s and more 737s, 757s, A320s, and A 321s on routes such as DFW-CLT, CLT-MIA, CLT-LGA, PHL-DFW, and so on.

Indeed. I would expect all the routes connecting AA hubs (DFW, ORD, MIA, LAX, JFK/LGA) and the US hubs (PHL, CLT, DCA, PHX) to see increased frequency and/or capacity where feasible/economic. Markets like ORD-PHL/CLT and CLT-MIA will of course very likely become all-mainline very quickly.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 174):
The bigger question is would the PMAA take a gamble with a route like OKC-PHL?

I doubt it. In terms of connectivity into the northeast, there is little PHL would add than isn't already available over ORD. PHL certainly penetrates into far more markets in the northeast, but how many of those really generate significant O&D from OKC? Answer: I don't think enough to justify such a long nonstop flight on what would inevitably be a relatively small jet, when the huge ORD megahub is already served multiple times per day and offers connectivity to just about every major city in the northeast already (and with more likely to be added post-merger).

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 177):
What about the return of the mAAck (ha ha) to BUR and OAK?

I could see both BUR and OAK (plus LGB) coming back to DFW in a few years. One of AA's big problems in all three markets was that east-bound routings were being challenged by progressively more intense competition from lower-cost, lower-fare competition. US was one of those competitors. With all three of those markets now set to lose 1 competitor for east-bound travel, the economics of all 3 markets may well improve to the point that they can be flown again - even if just 1-2x daily - nonstop from DFW. The one I would look for in particular would be BUR - which had healthy local demand to/from DFW (and behind/beyond DFW to/from DCA) due to business traffic.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14837
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:13 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 178):
I think the point being made - which I agree with - is that even with the existing infrastructure of the allegedly "high speed" Acela, it is still faster and more convenient than the air shuttles.

My point is somewhat different. It's not correct to look at "the Shuttle" as a monolithic entity. LGA-DCA is already pretty wasteful, as the train is far better for most passengers. But LGA-BOS to some degree and DCA-BOS to a significant degree are easier by air and will be for some time. The BOS shuttle routes are not in danger. LGA-DCA might be, but then again that's almost hub-hub for the combined carrier.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Beardown91737
Posts: 896
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 10:56 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:46 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 164):
Are you suggesting something along the lines of a scaled down regional hub for PHX, so that a passenger traveling say between SAN and OMA could continue to transfer at PHX rather than be forced to go through DFW, which adds a third more distance-wise?

Yes, It seems to be working for US and WN now.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 165):
I'm not quite understanding how you think PHX is a viable intra-west or mountain west connecting point. SEA-MCI, SFO-COS or BIL-RNO are not economically feasible over PHX.

I get what you are saying about PHX being too far south, but DFW isn't the ideal alternative. To begin with DFW is farther south than PHX.

SEA-DFW-MCI = 2120 mi $487 AA (prices from Expedia 4/21-4/26) You win this one.
SEA-ORD-MCI = 2123 mi $336 AA
SEA-PHX-MCI = 2151 mi $357 US

SFO-DFW-COS 2056 mi AA only flies to COS from DFW
SFO-PHX-COS 1202 mi, but US only serves COS with a UA codeshare
UAX flies SFO-COS nonstop (operated by Skywest) 964 miles

BIL-RNO (neither serves BIL on their own metal, but we could pick BOI, or GEG, or SEA instead)
BIL-DFW-RNO 2425 mi
BIL-PHX-RNO 1474 mi
BIL-RNO nonstop 718 mi (college football charter?)

just for fun...
SEA-MSP-MCI 1792 $329 DL
SEA-SLC-MCI 1608 $414 DL
SEA-DEN-MCI - 1557 UA $316, F9 $322
SEA-MCI N/S 1409 $318 AS (same flight codeshare $318 DL, $336 AA)

Quoting commavia (Reply 162):
The allegedly "expensive dogleg" of DFW is also a profitable one - DFW is a higher-yielding market than PHX, and can take advantage of economies of scale that dwarf anything PHX could ever possibly achieve, along with serving far, far more places far more geogaphically dispersed than PHX could ever possible achieve. PHX is not going to be able to handle the same amount of capacity it now does - let alone more - at the combined (higher) costs of a merged airline.

I am not talking about shutting down DFW. With a mountain west hub, some of the DFW flying can be rationalized, like 10% less DFW-LAX or DFW-SAN which could free up planes to bring back DFW-BUR.

How would DFW yields be a factor on a connecting flight?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 168):
Pretty much every other route (including ONT) can full multiple flights to DFW based off of O&D alone.

What else did you have in mind?

maybe 10% less between DFW and LAX, LAS, SAN, and maybe SNA. Also, not overflying PHX with traffic from these places plus ONT, SBA, LGB, SBA, FAT, etc to places west of DFW. Then take a look at Eagle service to LAX to make sure it is generating westbound or southbound traffic. LAX-ORD may also be a place to look, not to get rid of LAX-ORD or LAX-ORD-DTW, but to switch LAX-ORD-DSM type travel to LAX-PHX-DSM, keeping in mind that LAX-DFW-DSM takes more fuel.
135 hrs PIC (mostly PA-28) - not current. Landings at MDW, PIA, JAN.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:06 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
With a mountain west hub

What mountain west hub? Neither AA nor US has a mountain west hub now, nor would they after a merger.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
some of the DFW flying can be rationalized

Again - why on earth would they "rationalize" DFW instead of PHX? So people flying SAN-OMA can have a shorter ride? That seems hard to justify financially.

PHX is the hub that's low-yieldind, highly competitive, and in an inferior geographic location.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
like 10% less DFW-LAX or DFW-SAN which could free up planes to bring back DFW-BUR

  

Why on earth would AA be cutting flights from DFW to major west coast markets like that?

DFW is a far larger hub, almost certainly a substantially higher-yielding one, and is in a far better geographic location to handle far more, and far broader a selection of, connections.

Again - what you are suggesting completely defies economic logic.

[Edited 2013-02-13 04:23:50]
 
southwest737500
Posts: 611
Joined: Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:49 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:12 pm

I believe CLT will get OKC and maybe TUL
Next flight: TUL-ATL-CLT CRJ900 and MD88
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:01 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 178):
Indeed. I would expect all the routes connecting AA hubs (DFW, ORD, MIA, LAX, JFK/LGA) and the US hubs (PHL, CLT, DCA, PHX) to see increased frequency and/or capacity where feasible/economic. Markets like ORD-PHL/CLT and CLT-MIA will of course very likely become all-mainline very quickly.

Definitely. All the conduit traffic will require increases in gauge and frequency. Not only that but it will force UA do downgauge in those markets like AA did in ORD-IAH and ORD-EWR

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 172):
HNL/SFO/LAX connections work just fine. No real need for SLC-NRT.

If there is enough traffic from cities in the Intermountain West to Asia, there would be. Otherwise you lose those connections to DEN and UA. So places like COS, ABQ, BIL etc. There probably isnt that much traffic, but LAX/SFO and HNL arent a substitute for SLC in some markets.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 171):
It's going to take billions of dollars in infrastructure improvements in Rhode Island and eastern Connecticut to appreciably increase speeds between New Haven and Boston, so BOS-LGA/DCA are likely safe for some time.

US can do what I am proposing already, but I would think the E90 dedicated to DCA/LGA/BOS shuttles would be the best place for them rather than have 15 aircraft all over the system.
 
lhcvg
Posts: 1255
Joined: Mon May 25, 2009 2:53 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:15 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 183):
US can do what I am proposing already, but I would think the E90 dedicated to DCA/LGA/BOS shuttles would be the best place for them rather than have 15 aircraft all over the system.

They might even end up dropping down to E75's or 70's, but I'd think it could be sustainable at one of those levels for a while. DL's Shuttle might disappear first, but I would think a combined carrier with essentiall hub-to-hub on LGA-DCA could keep the Shuttle viable.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5133
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:26 pm

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 120):
I'm also surprised that nobody is flying to St. Petersburg, either, not even Aeroflot.

I believe at one point several years ago US was thinking about PHL-DME. Didn't happen. A combined airline could easily make DME work.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

So you are predicting PHX to be a spoke with basically only hub flights and then maybe a couple of P2P? Uh, that large of a market demands a bit more than a pulldown to a spoke.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 131):
PHX is a low yielding hub that benefits from US's current cost structure. When it moves to AA's cost structure, it's going to start bleeding money. It's essentially the west coast version of PIT and US bled money there for years before it decided to cut its losses.

PHX is nothing like PIT nor are their situations similar. PIT is a spoke in the US network now. PHX is destined to remain a focus city.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Also, if WN decides to re-enter the market BOS-PHX is a goner.

Hardly. WN in BOS doesn't scare anybody.
 
ripcordd
Posts: 1082
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:37 pm

PHX will be pulled down greatly over the years..It will be a hub but they are going to funnel most east coast traffic thru DFW & ORD I see LAX picking up a few more cities to take care of connecting passengers on the west coast side.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5133
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:46 pm

One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 3315
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 180):
but DFW isn't the ideal alternative. To begin with DFW is farther south than PHX.

DFW is farther South by a degree or two perhaps, but for sake of argument there's no difference between the two in how far South they are. As far as alternatives, PHX's bread-and-butter are East-West connections, something DFW can easily handle. The number of inter-West connections done over PHX will most likely just disappear as their yields are simply too low and aren't something the combined carrier could operate profitably. But for a lot of connection (SEA-XXX-MCI), going through DFW is by no means appreciably worse than over PHX.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2278
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Wed Feb 13, 2013 11:50 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 187):
One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.

Agreed. I was thinking about this too. AS is probably glad to see this merger happen (assuming the codeshare stays intact post, which I can't see why it wouldn't) as it will provide more feed to their system.
 
elal 744
Posts: 164
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2000 1:19 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:01 am

I don’t mean to go off subject but:
American assumed responsibility for TWA’s station in Tel Aviv including some whopping severance and pension payments – which they chose not to pay when the station was closed. The former TWA staff has a court order basically enabling the seizure of an American Airlines aircraft if they land in Tel Aviv to force AA to pay up and the amount is suposed to be larger than $20M.
With US Airways and American Airlines merging, what will happen to the US Airways flight to Tel Aviv? Wil they pay up or stop flying?
Does anyone know how the merger will address this issue?
Vercere bracis meis
 
hausauflennon
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:52 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:05 am

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 172):
I would think, if anything, MORE Barbados is needed. Starting to get popular now, thanks to popular singer Rihanna. Many people had never heard of the country before, are now going.

That is the conventional school of thought, but AA has been seeing quite the unflattering performance on the JFK-BGI route recently. B6 gives them a good fight on the route with tourist traffic, and the latter's fanbase, as it were, in the local market is increasing, so now more Barbadians (Bajans) are opting to go 'blue' over AA.

Hopefully, being an aviation universalist and not being particularly loyal to any one carrier, there will be enough pie, i.e. tourists (Rihanna navy or otherwise) to satisfy both boardrooms in Dallas and in the Big Apple.

I however strongly believe AA will drop JFK-BGI as has been the case in other Caribbean territories, at least temporarily and perhaps reappear with different, smaller and more efficient equipment on the route. Our peaks (Crop Over festival late Jul - Aug, Barbadian summer travel Jul - early Sept, and winter Dec - Apr) can be boom times for carriers, but those troughs? They can erase any remarkable performance if not mitigated against or planned for.
 
blue100
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 3:58 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:36 am

While this question will certainly be influenced by whichever alliance the merged company will stick with, what is going to happen to all of the US flights currently flying to FRA and MUC? I believe they serve both FRA and MUC from a couple of hubs (I imagine CLT and PHL are a given).

If the combined carrier selects Oneworld, would these flights to FRA and MUC be shifted to LHR? Given the slot constraints at LHR, are we likely to see more of an increase in capacity, rather than an increase in actual flying? I would expect the airline to maintain a presence in FRA and MUC. However, I can also see the combined carrier increasing flying into TXL / BER / DUS to feed AB.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26467
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 1:41 am

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 191):
I however strongly believe AA will drop JFK-BGI as has been the case in other Caribbean territories, at least temporarily and perhaps reappear with different, smaller and more efficient equipment on the route. Our peaks (Crop Over festival late Jul - Aug, Barbadian summer travel Jul - early Sept, and winter Dec - Apr) can be boom times for carriers, but those troughs? They can erase any remarkable performance if not mitigated against or planned for.

JFKBGI is one of AA's absolute top performing Caribbean routes, FYI. It does so well for AA, that is is scheduled on a long-haul 757 so they can serve the route with lie-flat beds in First.

Quoting blue100 (Reply 192):
all of the US flights currently flying to FRA and MUC? I believe they serve both FRA and MUC from a couple of hubs (I imagine CLT and PHL are a given).

PHLFRA, PHLMUC and CLTFRA. That's it.

[Edited 2013-02-13 17:42:02]
a.
 
FlyingSicilian
Posts: 1644
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:53 pm

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:15 am

So what are the odds of IAH getting a Term A Adm. Club now?
Combined the carrier should have 25-30 daily flights I presume.
I was told there would be cookies...
 
usairways85
Posts: 4197
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:35 am

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 193):
PHLFRA, PHLMUC and CLTFRA. That's it.

Well yes that is it but PHL/CLT-FRA are seasonally double daily and you also have LH on PHL-FRA. Since they will leave Star it is almost a given there will be cuts. I suspect LH will reevaluate CLT-MUC as well. If they keep it I highly doubt it remains a 346.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 2:53 am

Quoting hausauflennon (Reply 191):
That is the conventional school of thought, but AA has been seeing quite the unflattering performance on the JFK-BGI route recently. B6 gives them a good fight on the route with tourist traffic, and the latter's fanbase, as it were, in the local market is increasing, so now more Barbadians (Bajans) are opting to go 'blue' over AA.

Could it perhaps be the JFK hub? Maybe moving it to SJU or DFW or ORD or somewhere else have a better feed-in? A different set of connections may be the key.

[Edited 2013-02-13 18:58:12]
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:04 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 185):
I believe at one point several years ago US was thinking about PHL-DME. Didn't happen. A combined airline could easily make DME work.

SFO and SEA have to be part of the equation. These are two big markets for Russia, in fact, Aeroflot use to fly to both...and had to drop them because their lease was up on the planes.....and never put the service back on.

Both AA and UA were not very good at promoting their DME service, in fact, it was next to nothing. Many people in SFO/SEA, who could have used their flights, did not. Yes, the combined airline will give it a better feed, but the flight needs to be promoted, especially in those two cities.
 
User avatar
mke717spotter
Posts: 2178
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 9:32 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:11 am

Well I doubt that TUS-PHX is still going to be flown with 10x daily CR9s.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes

Thu Feb 14, 2013 3:15 am

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 185):
A combined airline could easily make DME work.

Perhaps, although if that were to happen I suspect that one would make the most sense from JFK, not PHL, with perhaps a 5-7x weekly 767 in the winter and a daily 767 or maybe even A330 in the summer. It would also have to be timed for very convenient connections to/from MIA, ORD, SEA, LAX, SFO and DCA. All of which would be entirely feasible at JFK.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 187):
One thing seems certain to me - AA will still need the AS codeshare to stay relevant in the Northwest and Upper Rockies regions, unless a lot of long and thin E-jet routes are started from ORD and/or DFW.

  

I highly doubt the alliance with Alaska is going anywhere - at least if AA has anything to do with it. It's almost entirely value-add to AA. Alaska provides feed in a region of the country where AA will never be able to have a particularly strong, meaningful presence on account of its hub structure. As such, Alaska provides excellent access to the Pacific Northwest, not to mention Alaska and up and down the West Coast.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 188):
As far as alternatives, PHX's bread-and-butter are East-West connections, something DFW can easily handle.

  

This is the ultimate bottom line. PHX's primary reason for existing as a hub (at ;east in its current form) for USAirways will cease tomorrow morning.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos