Quoting LOWS (Reply 40): Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 40): Isnt CLT the 4th largest hub in terms of daily departures. Yes, but it's also something like 80% connecting traffic.

So what's Your point? ATL is about 75% connecting traffic.

Quoting cv880 (Reply 50): Quoting LOWS (Reply 40): Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 40): Isnt CLT the 4th largest hub in terms of daily departures. Yes, but it's also something like 80% connecting traffic. So what's Your point? ATL is about 75% connecting traffic.

Meaning that CLT is a very small market when compared to other hubs. ATL may be 75% connecting, but it's almost twice the size of CLT and is one of the top air markets in the country.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 51): Meaning that CLT is a very small market when compared to other hubs. ATL may be 75% connecting, but it's almost twice the size of CLT and is one of the top air markets in the country.

Total BS in some respects. SLC's O&D is much higher, due to the fact that it's the only major airport within hundreds of miles. RDU's O&D is much higher than ATL's, so should we move the ATL hub to RDU? O&D has some relevance, but You are comparing CLT's O&D with others that have no surrounding competition. CLT is a connecting hub, the same as ATL, just on a smaller scale. The major airports in the Carolinas are so close together that locals frequently drive to the airport where they can get a better fare, which in itself distorts the O&D. If CLT were the only airport in a 100 mi radius, the O&D would be much higher, but it has CAE/GSP/AVL/GSO/FAY to compete with as well as RDU a little further out.

Quoting cv880 (Reply 52): Total BS in some respects. SLC's O&D is much higher, due to the fact that it's the only major airport within hundreds of miles. RDU's O&D is much higher than ATL's, so should we move the ATL hub to RDU?

        

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 51): Meaning that CLT is a very small market when compared to other hubs. ATL may be 75% connecting, but it's almost twice the size of CLT and is one of the top air markets in the country.

This is a classic case of how looking at the statistics alone can be tricky - remember the phase atrubuted to Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". As CV880 mentioned, CLT competes with several airports in the Carolinas, including a fairly large operation at GSO that drains a significant amount of O&D that would otherwise (mostly - probably 60-70%) go to CLT.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 53): As CV880 mentioned, CLT competes with several airports in the Carolinas, including a fairly large operation at GSO that drains a significant amount of O&D that would otherwise (mostly - probably 60-70%) go to CLT.

Exactly. My intermediate family lives off of I-77 on Lake Norman, roughly 30 minutes or so north of CLT. To put it in perspective, they can make it to GSO in about an 1:15, to GSP in about 1:45, to CAE in just under 2:00, and to AVL in about 2:00. My parents have driven to both AVL and GSP on numerous occasions to get a lower fare.

Quoting cv880 (Reply 52): Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 51): Meaning that CLT is a very small market when compared to other hubs. ATL may be 75% connecting, but it's almost twice the size of CLT and is one of the top air markets in the country. Total BS in some respects.

It's not. I don't really care about the leakage to other airports because, even if that was factored in, the Charlotte market is still very small compared to ORD, ATL, EWR, IAH, DFW...etc. I'm not really sure what you're arguing for here as the OP was originally referring to the size of the markets of airline hubs and how Charlotte compares.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 53): Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 51): Meaning that CLT is a very small market when compared to other hubs. ATL may be 75% connecting, but it's almost twice the size of CLT and is one of the top air markets in the country. This is a classic case of how looking at the statistics alone can be tricky - remember the phase atrubuted to Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". As CV880 mentioned, CLT competes with several airports in the Carolinas, including a fairly large operation at GSO that drains a significant amount of O&D that would otherwise (mostly - probably 60-70%) go to CLT.

Again, this is all irrelevant, the original claim was that Charlotte is a comparatively small market among other major hubs, this is true on every metric even counting leakage, not sure why this is an issue for some people or why they feel they need to justify it. CLT has a strong role as a domestic hub, but yes, it's a small market when compared to other large airline hubs.

And yet the costs of the CLT operation are going to rise significantly with all of the US employees getting significant raises. Does that change the margins in CLT from positive to negative? It's something that hasn't been discussed in this thread so far, yet this probably plays a more significant impact than a 5% difference in O&D traffic compared to ATL.

IMO, I agree with wingnutmn, CLT is likely to look more like MSP than MEM. CLT fills a large gap in the AA network and doesnt really overlap much. However, does it need 4 CLT-SJU flights? Makes sense when you only have PHL and CLT to connect the east coast, but when you add JFK, PHL, MIA, DFW and ORD to that mix maybe 2 flights are more appropriate. There are more cities like this. It won't make the hub go away, just maybe a loss of a few cities and flights.

I think PHX is in a much more precarious position.


As for *A, what does CLT really bring that UA can't do at IAD?

Quoting cv880 (Reply 52): SLC's O&D is much higher, due to the fact that it's the only major airport within hundreds of miles.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 54): Exactly. My intermediate family lives off of I-77 on Lake Norman, roughly 30 minutes or so north of CLT. To put it in perspective, they can make it to GSO in about an 1:15, to GSP in about 1:45, to CAE in just under 2:00, and to AVL in about 2:00. My parents have driven to both AVL and GSP on numerous occasions to get a lower fare.

SLC is particularly interesting, as it is both a fortress hub and the place that you drive to get a lower fare in the Intermountain area. I've met people from as far away as WYS (West Yellowstone, MT) who routinely drive to SLC (about 325 miles/5+ hours away) to get better fares. Of course WYS has very limted service, but they are also bypassing BZN (90 miles), IDA (110 miles) and PIH (165 miles) to get there. SLC is often considered a high-fare fortress hub, but people will still drive 5 hours and bypass 4 other airports to get there from places that cost even more. That's why DL loves it. The only competition is from expensive RJ outstations. [/tangent]

Anyway, I think CLT will be just fine.

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 45): With US' departure, the only domestic Star carrier in the USA will be UA. I doubt that UA will try to establish a hub just to connect points within the southeast.

With this new triage of legacy carriers remaining in the U.S., I don't think now that it is possible for any of the three legacies to be strong in every region in the county. WN may be considered as strong in just about every region of the country, but they don't do smaller airports. Each of the three legacies will have strengths in different areas, and be weak in different areas.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 44): I was talking about the CLT-FRA which, at ~43 PDEW, is small beans when compared to LH's other TATL destinations. And why are you sure LH would be the carrier for such a route when, by your logic, BA should be the carrier serving LHR-DTW/MSP? The trend has almost always been that either the home carrier dominating these fortress mid-size market hubs or their alliance partners serve the international routes, I see no reason to believe CLT is any different.

Okay, so now do you want to say that there really isn't any need for a CLT-Germany nonstop flight? With a whole 86 O&D pax daily on CLT-FRA, and then another whole 60 some O&D pax daily on CLT-MUC, and then another whole 64 some in total O&D pax to about 7 other German cities for a total of about 105 O&D PDEW.... is this even enough to support even 1 daily CLT-Germany flight? Maybe, if the O&D of at least 50% purchase Business Class or better seating. And who will those premium pax rather be purchasing from..... AA or LH?

As for DL LHR-DTW/MSP, I guess one can look at it any way they want. Different markets, I would say, and it's also curious here that MSP-Germany (173 O&D pax daily) does not have any nonstops into Germany, while DTW-Germany (390 O&D pax daily) has one daily with LH to FRA, and not on DL.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 47): It's amazing that we have two simultaneous incorrect arguments on this thread. One is CLT will shut down or shink by 50%, the other is UAL will have to have a hub in the SE. This web site is enough to give anyone a migraine.

Oy vey.... I think that we're all having a discussion here and just have different points of view. And as for your migraine headaches here, you can't tell me that you don't look forward to them as much as you look forward to going your neighborhood dominatrix (or dominator, I don't care and I don't judge) and having her tie you up, get out that thick leather paddle, and then pulling down your trousers.......

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 47): Tell me where AA isnt getting their QSI fair share of O&D traffic and where they will be able to by shutting down CLT? So cut profitable service to CLT and add marginal flights in NYC or LAX. As for 50 seaters going away , CLT and every other hub would see a reduction in departures but that has nothing to do with the merger. Still no one has answered where the lost CLT traffic will be recaptured.

Can we look at it this way? I think that we can all agree that the new merged AA/US will have higher costs. If we can’t agree here, that’s another discussion. So now assuming increased costs, fares will have to increase in order for the new AA/UA to profit. And I think that we all know the basic economic rule of demand….. as price falls, people will buy more….. and as price rises, people will buy less. I think that we can agree on this as well. Now…. as to where will all this traffic go? This traffic will now just not be there because price increase will have created less demand. Some may drive, some may take a bus, some may not go on a trip at all, and now as demand drops, so will flights since there is no demand for them. Lost traffic will happen because of fare increase. Yes, CLT can get a premium, it has that in its favor. And the new AA/US will not shut down or cede the Southeast; having between 300-400 daily flights at CLT is more than enough to keep DL and ATL honest down there.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 53): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". As CV880 mentioned, CLT competes with several airports in the Carolinas, including a fairly large operation at GSO that drains a significant amount of O&D that would otherwise (mostly - probably 60-70%) go to CLT.

The more that folks in the CLT area drive to CLT and use it as their O&D airport, the better the chances of CLT keeping up a higher number of flights.

Now.... I'll say this again. It's wonderful that the airline execs are now singing the tune of praising how many opportunities there will be with this merger..... and the civic officials joining them in harmony. But what tune is going to be sung when the price of jet fuel spikes for some reason, or jet fuel just continues in its upward cost to some point? I'm sure that a completely different tune is going to be sung, and the latter one not so happy as this current one. And it won't be just CLT that will see traffic decline, but ATL, DFW, etc, etc., and easiest cutting is where O&D doesn't match demand.

And even without jet fuel spiking too quickly, I think that soon we'll be seeing lots of system-wide capacity cuts to utilize scarce resources to compliment O&D. WN is already doing this at ATL, where reductions are going to be increasing the local percentage of O&D sometime soon.

And lastly, Parker is smart and knew that his miracle will be ending. I think that everyone here agree that Parker would have just about traded in his left testicle (ouch) for this merger to happen. And he finally got it, and with that, is probably turning cartwheels that CLT isn't the center of his universe anymore.

And for now, that's all folks.......


 







[Edited 2013-02-19 15:22:47]