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AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:03 pm

Hello All,
As the last thread has gotten quite long we have created a second thread to continue the conversation. The previous thread can be found here AA/US Merger Impact: Routes (by Moderators Feb 8 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Enjoy and have a fantastic weekend!

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enilria
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:16 pm

Sorry, I haven't read the prior thread, but my guess is as follows:

PHX is no longer a hub over 2 or 3 years.
CLT loses capacity to Florida and Latin/Caribbean routes. CLT-Europe is less clear. That could go either way. Overall I expect 10-20% less capacity in CLT. Probably will also see a lot of RJs move in and larger planes move out.
DFW probably changes little except to possibly pick up some of the PHX capacity.
PHL does not change much IMHO.

I think ORD/NYC/LAX are really question marks. I think DP will pick one in order to try to gain share and will probably de-emphasize the others. If PHX is going away, it is likely that AA will step up in LAX and try to fight DL's growth. The recent AS deal implies that, although it could also be a way to shrink. I think it is unlikely AA/US will put much effort toward NYC because UA/DL have effectively won already. Their best option is to shack up with B6 and unload some of the LGA slots to B6 in return for a code share. JFK is also a question mark, but a real relationship with B6 would change things. They could de-emphasize feed operations using B6 or expand Atlantic stuff using feed from B6. BA could also be interesting in Atlantic routes to other EU countries with B6 to feed at JFK. Big question mark. It is possible that DP could decide to knock UA off its perch in ORD and beef up there, but it is unlikely.

DP has generally avoided market share grabs, but he often fiercely defends his turf. That leads me to think he will reduce in NYC using B6, keep things static in ORD, and attempt to fight off DL in LAX.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
I think it is unlikely AA/US will put much effort toward NYC because UA/DL have effectively won already.

No, they haven't. They are larger and that won't be changing, but AA continues to be incredibly strong in corporate contracts, trans-cons, and key European business routes, not to ignore that it's the highest average fare carrier at JFK (and I believe LGA, as well).

~175 daily flights at LaGuardia and ~110 at JFK is a very strong operation that isn't going anywhere, and certainly not to JetBlue.

At LAX, the merged AA will be the largest airline and largest O&D carrier.

At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

With US making AA so strong in the East, I actually don't think the B6 partnership will grow.

I expect there will be a slot swap with JetBlue though: some Reagan slots for prime JFK slots.
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MCOflyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:47 pm

CLT: Downgraded to a focus city like LAS did when AW merged with US
PHX- I suspect PHX will remain as a hub in some form or another

KH
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MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 6:56 pm

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 3):
CLT: Downgraded to a focus city like LAS did when AW merged with US
PHX- I suspect PHX will remain as a hub in some form or another

You mixed those two up there.

No way CLT hub is closed.
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crAAzy
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:27 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):

At LAX, the merged AA will be the largest airline and largest O&D carrier.

At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

Interesting, I was aware of LAX but didn't think they were that close in ORD.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):

With US making AA so strong in the East, I actually don't think the B6 partnership will grow.

I tend to agree given the fact that the a combined AA/US really has no need for B6 with a strong presence in BOS,PHL,NYC,DCA. I just can't see DP giving up much in the important NE market. B6 had their chance to work more closely with AA and they decided against it. The new AA and B6 should now be considered competitors.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):

I expect there will be a slot swap with JetBlue though: some Reagan slots for prime JFK slots.

It would be nice for AA/US if they could work something out again, but as mentioned above I expect the dynamics of B6 and the new AA will be changing significantly if the merger is approved. Besides, does B6 really want more DCA slots so they can run more FL routes?
 
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:14 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 5):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):

At LAX, the merged AA will be the largest airline and largest O&D carrier.

At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.


Interesting, I was aware of LAX but didn't think they were that close in ORD.

UA's hub is a fair bit larger; but in O&D share AA/UA are already pretty close, and adding US puts AA on top.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 5):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):

I expect there will be a slot swap with JetBlue though: some Reagan slots for prime JFK slots.

It would be nice for AA/US if they could work something out again, but as mentioned above I expect the dynamics of B6 and the new AA will be changing significantly if the merger is approved. Besides, does B6 really want more DCA slots so they can run more FL routes?

I do think B6 would love to expand Reagan more. It's very limited entry and can provide a lot of opportunity, not just to Florida. JFK slots are plentiful outside of peak. AA probably values peak slots at JFK far more than B6, so I bet they could reach some sort of slot deal in an attempt to pre-anticipate the DOJ issues, like UA/WN did with Newark.
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AA787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:21 pm

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 5):
I tend to agree given the fact that the a combined AA/US really has no need for B6 with a strong presence in BOS,PHL,NYC,DCA. I just can't see DP giving up much in the important NE market. B6 had their chance to work more closely with AA and they decided against it. The new AA and B6 should now be considered competitors.

It is worth noting that David Barger on JetBlue's earnings call discussed working towards tightening relationships with "some" partners towards code share and frequent flyer reciprocity.

This was of course before the merger was announced, but you have to think he knew it was coming even as he made that statement.

It also might not be about AA, but that would be the logical assumption.

[Edited 2013-02-22 12:23:20]
 
flyby519
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:40 pm

Quoting AA787 (Reply 7):
It is worth noting that David Barger on JetBlue's earnings call discussed working towards tightening relationships with "some" partners towards code share and frequent flyer reciprocity.

This was of course before the merger was announced, but you have to think he knew it was coming even as he made that statement.

It also might not be about AA, but that would be the logical assumption.

I wouldnt be surprised to see an expanded AA/B6 codeshare in the coming weeks/months before Parker actually takes over. After the judge approves the POR and Parker is official (and Horton officially out) then we will see how AA and B6 will view each other. Should be interesting
 
SouthernDC9
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:45 pm

Why exactly does anyone think CLT will be de-hubbed? That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

I'm curious to see who gets the open DCA Air-21 slots, I would think that with their situation in flux (on top of existing concerns) that these will not be rewarded to US...
What does AA/US merger mean for CLT/JFK/PHX/North America/Southern Hemisphere/God's Plan for the Universe
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:55 pm

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 9):

Why exactly does anyone think CLT will be de-hubbed? That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

In my view, anybody who claims that CLT is going to be de-hubbed is pretty detached from reality, much less from the realities of how the airline industry works.

I really wish that argument would be put to rest.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

Please elaborate. My stats are showing that UA will still be the #1 carrier by ASMs and # of daily departures. If you have info on how this boils down to O&D breakdown between the two carriers, I would really, really like to know a bit more.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
I think it is unlikely AA/US will put much effort toward NYC because UA/DL have effectively won already.
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
They are larger and that won't be changing, but AA continues to be incredibly strong in corporate contracts, trans-cons, and key European business routes

The transcon market is basically going to be spoiled over the next few years given the aggressive product enhancements both Delta and American are making on these markets (read the DL thread just from today). Interestingly, Delta is replicating its premium transcon product and extending it to JFK-SEA, which AA has a presence on, but has chosen to abstain from deploying the new A321 3-cabin config.

At any rate, AA would rather relinquish its Chinese route authorities than cede marketshare on the JFK-LAX/SFO routes. Those are HUGELY important to them with lucrative corporate contracts, and the interior investments they are making are simply unparallel to any previous on-board redesign projects.

United's P.S. service is outdated and United also is just sucking in general. They have by no means "won" NYC-LAX/SFO.
 
LJ
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:56 pm

Quote:
Why? Why does AA merging with US make PHL-AMS/BRU all of a sudden something to drop?

As mentioned, oneworld isn't big at AMS and BRU. Why would any FF switch from Star to oneworld? AA/US doesn't offer anything to the Dutch or Belgian passenger which Star can't offer better from these stations. Losing the Star FF base at BRU and AMS means less passengers and given AMS is already a 757 yearround, there is not much room to downgauge AMS.

At BRU, I reckon the codeshares between US and SN will be dropped, which will impact the number of pax flying between BRU and PHL. Thus it will be interesting to see how AA/US will do in the Winter on PHL-BRU without the codeshare between SN and US.
 
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:10 pm

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

Please elaborate. My stats are showing that UA will still be the #1 carrier by ASMs and # of daily departures. If you have info on how this boils down to O&D breakdown between the two carriers, I would really, really like to know a bit more.

And your stats are correct. But AA will be #1 on local market share. I thought I had the presentation, but looks like it was another one. I'll try to find it - but there was a merger day presentation that broke down Chicago O&D marketshare, where AA+US leads.


But note in this presentation - http://www.scribd.com/doc/125468397/...tion-on-the-merger-with-US-Airways - it gives look into how AA's hubs will develop through the merger. Primarily, people seem to think the below won't happen, but AA makes it clear they will:

*Develop MIA domestic using RJs.
*Develop LAX-Asia
*Diversify MIA/ORD-Europe
*Make JFK the primary trans-Atlantic hub (not PHL).
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nomorerjs
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 10:58 pm

Anyone been to ORD lately? Flights are packed and secutiry lines inhale vigorously. AA has many large corporate contracts at ORD and will do extremely well after Chapter 11 and the merger. This will be a big market for US/HP/AA/TW/OC/.... Also, UA is not the best of friends to those in ChicagoLand. Mark my word, AA will thrive at ORD in less than a year after the merger is completed!
 
dghiggins
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:18 pm

From earlier thread:

Quote:
AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.

Legally, is the merged US/AA liable?
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:06 am

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 13):
Mark my word, AA will thrive at ORD in less than a year after the merger is completed!

Let's not get too excited until major hurdles are cleared.

I, like many other UA elites on this forum, was thrilled about the UA/CO merger initially, until nightmares became realities and those meltdowns persisted a full year into the system cutover. So many of us are beyond frustrated and pissed off by the inconsistent, unreliable, and downright sorry brand that United has become.

Bear in mind that just like United and Continental, American and US are on separate platforms (Sabre vs. SHARES) and along those lines, the individual carriers have different loyalty programs and elite followers, and will have to integrate them as one.

For American, a small portion of their overall passenger base are comprised of elites (20-25%), yet these individuals provide over 70% of American's R/ASMs. For US, a larger portion of their passenger base is comprised of elites (30%) but these individuals contribute to only 40-50% of US' revenues.

That right there should tell you that there is a fine line to walk here. If AA dilutes its product (or takes some course of action that results in losing as little as 1% of their elite clientele) the implications will be drastic for the combined carrier.
It has happened with UA: at this point in the game, United ought to be printing money, but it is not, and that is becoming extremely worrisome.

The one good piece of news here is that US has not embarked on its own separate path involving expensive cabin upgrades and product redesigns across its fleet, so it can (hopefully) adopt AA's new product plans quickly and easily in order to avoid brand confusion. Unfortunately, that was/is an unavoidable disaster for UA/CO; hence why flying on their planes is like a guessing game of musical chairs in terms of knowing what you're gonna get.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 3:47 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
PHX is no longer a hub over 2 or 3 years.
CLT loses capacity to Florida and Latin/Caribbean routes

Why would CLT lose capacity to FL? Where else will that traffic go? Same with Caribbean. Those routes are profitable from CLT.

There is a huge misconception with AA/US. Unlike DL/NW and a lesser extent UA/CO, AA/US isn't happening to reduce capacity. It is happening to make AA bigger and imp[rove AA's revenue. I do think PHX will be pared, but not CLT other than to accommodate larger RJs. If you believe A.netters AA and US are getting together to eliminate 2/3 of US's hubs.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

Are you sure that AA plus a few flights to PHX, CLT and PHL makes AA bigger than UA?

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 9):
Why exactly does anyone think CLT will be de-hubbed? That just doesn't make sense to me at all.
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
In my view, anybody who claims that CLT is going to be de-hubbed is pretty detached from reality, much less from the realities of how the airline industry works.
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):
I really wish that argument would be put to rest.

Ditto, Ditto, Ditto, Good to see A.net hasn't been completely over-run with 13 year olds. I do think any reduction in CLT will be due to larger RJs and ASMs will be relatively flat. Those who think CLT will be dehubbed haven't given a good argument as to why and how that excess traffic will be recaptured. UAL wanted US in 2000 BECAUSE of CLT. CLT has only grown since then.
 
flyguy89
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:33 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
There is a huge misconception with AA/US. Unlike DL/NW and a lesser extent UA/CO, AA/US isn't happening to reduce capacity.

I'm not sure where you're getting this obvious piece of corporate clap trap, but mergers are precisely about reducing capacity and eliminating competition. Of course the merging companies never actually say this, it's always a "merger about growth" and "no hubs will be eliminated" and it always "benefits consumers" yadda yadda yadda. Obviously this merger is happening to make AA bigger and improve revenue but that happens through raising fares and decreasing capacity.
 
capitalflyer
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 4:37 pm

All AA and US hubs will be maintained.

http://www.aa.com/arriving
 
ABQopsHP
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 5:53 pm

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 17):

I'm not sure where you're getting this obvious piece of corporate clap trap, but mergers are precisely about reducing capacity and eliminating competition. Of course the merging companies never actually say this, it's always a "merger about growth" and "no hubs will be eliminated" and it always "benefits consumers" yadda yadda yadda. Obviously this merger is happening to make AA bigger and improve revenue but that happens through raising fares and decreasing capacity.

Flyguy89 I have to agree with you. I was in the biz for far too long, to take everything that was said to me by corporate as absolutes. I went through 4 mergers and in every single one of them, things took off like gang busters right after the merger only to be told a year later, we will need to cut flights/stations/employees. I stayed ahead of that curve until the Expressjet/ASA merger, when a year into that, they decided to cut all station staffing. It will happen at AA/US and eventually at UA/CO.

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 18):
All AA and US hubs will be maintained.

Oh I dont think so. There will be some paring, and re-arranging sooner or later. CLT fills a hole in the AA routemap. to me PHX is the worrisome area, since I have lots of former coworker friends there. Inflight/Flight ops/Flight deck and ground. I would hate to see them laid off like me. Some of my friends were smart to relocate to CLT when the west ground stations got outsourced. MY hope is they will be ok.

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MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 6:45 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
Are you sure that AA plus a few flights to PHX, CLT and PHL makes AA bigger than UA?

In O&D share, yes. AA is barely behind UA as it stands now.
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threeifbyair
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 6:49 pm

I have to wonder whether the PIT P2P routes will survive (BOS, BDL, LGA, RDU, STL).

BOS and LGA are important business markets, so I think they are safe. BOS only has B6 for competition, but B6 will be ramping up flights to 4x daily with the axing of PIT-JFK. US is running a mix of ZW CR2s and Republic E-Jets.

BDL, STL, and RDU are run with E145s though, and I could see that being the deal breaker.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:00 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 21):
I have to wonder whether the PIT P2P routes will survive (BOS, BDL, LGA, RDU, STL).

Why not? They are there for a reason.

Wouldn't be surprised if LAXPIT and LHRPIT join them. AA/US might no longer be hubbed there, but it is a strong operation and has room to grow to cater to the business community.
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Cubsrule
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:40 pm

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 21):
BDL, STL, and RDU are run with E145s though, and I could see that being the deal breaker.

The question with those is really whether AA will be open to AX continuing to run an at-risk operation. If so, I don't know why those flights go anywhere, as they already survived one spike in fuel prices with no hub around them. Of course, AA has historically been very protective of its Express colors/brand, so that may be a problem.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
Wouldn't be surprised if LAXPIT and LHRPIT join them. AA/US might no longer be hubbed there, but it is a strong operation and has room to grow to cater to the business community.

I agree. I wonder whether there might be room for a bit more point to point at PIT when all is said and done, both on Eagle (BNA, IND, MKE, MSY) and on mainline (SEA, SAN). I wouldn't say it's hugely likely, but if AA wants to grow some p2p operations and lock down local O&D in markets where it can leverage size, PIT seems like a sensible place to try that.
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PHX787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:18 am

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 18):
All AA and US hubs will be maintained.

As much as I believe this, the same was said by UA and DL about their hubs, and CVG and MEM are almost gone...

But again, PHX is in a much better position for route support than CVG and MEM ....
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strfyr51
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:56 am

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):

Here's the problem with your ORD scenario. It might very BE that the combined carrier might have to relinquish some ORD slots & Gates as UA CO had to in EWR to WN. VX I understand is chomping at the BIT for slots and Gates, Especially the ones held presently by US Air, UAL beat the Airport to the punch by Moving Sco to Terminal 1 pretty quickly following the announcement of the merger. This might get interesting at ORD because AA is right at gate capacity there.
 
flyguy89
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:30 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 25):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 10):

Here's the problem with your ORD scenario. It might very BE that the combined carrier might have to relinquish some ORD slots & Gates as UA CO had to in EWR to WN.

I don't really see this happening for two reasons:

1) ORD is not a slot restricted airport.

2) The gates US currently uses are in Terminal 2 with UA while the AA hub gates are in Terminal 3, so it's pretty doubtful those Terminal 2 gates will continue to be used by AA when the rest of their flights are in another terminal. The current US operation at ORD will probably simply be folded into the rest of AA's operations in Terminal 3
 
crAAzy
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:13 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 25):

Here's the problem with your ORD scenario. It might very BE that the combined carrier might have to relinquish some ORD slots & Gates as UA CO had to in EWR to WN.

Never going to happen in a million years.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 26):

2) The gates US currently uses are in Terminal 2 with UA while the AA hub gates are in Terminal 3, so it's pretty doubtful those Terminal 2 gates will continue to be used by AA when the rest of their flights are in another terminal. The current US operation at ORD will probably simply be folded into the rest of AA's operations in Terminal 3

While a combined AA/US would like to fold all it's operations into T3 - Don't for a second think it will be at the expense of giving up any of the gates that US is using.

That said, the ideal option for AA at ORD would be for carriers like NK,B6,VX to move from their L gates over to the US gates and have AA take over those L gates. Maybe even pick up all of the L gates with the understanding that some L gates may become mixed use gates to relieve international departures during peak afternoon periods (e.g. what will be happening this year with AB and QR) and what's been happening with IB and JL flights all departing out of T3 after arriving in T5.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:33 pm

Not enough has been paid to how aircraft gauges will be changed throughout the AA system. ORD has the potential to benefit most from smaller gauge on the mainline side and larger gauge on the RJ side. Pairing PHX would help move A320s to DFW to speed up S80 retirements and move 319s and CR9s to ORD. Delta's biggest benefit of merging with NW wasn't closing CVG and MEM as those are still open, but running FAM to reallocate aircraft. A330s from MIA would improve cargo revenue and move 763s to PHL and CLT. I'm not sure about replacing 777s with A330s due to F class. Plus capacity loss on profitable routes like GRU and EZE would be a poor idea. ORD has the potential to benefit greatly. Better gauge to meet demand and better city presence on the east coast will help with east coast POS travellers going to ORD.

MIA 738s up the east coast could be replaced with A321s with 738s doing PHL transcons.
 
jayunited
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:55 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
At ORD, the merged airline will be the largest O&D carrier.

That is a bold statement you are making right there the problem is the facts do not support your theory. Right now UA andUS are still code sharing on flights to PHX & LAS from ORD. Combined both airlines (UA and US) offer anywhere between 6-9 flights a day to PHX and 6-8 flights a day to LAS. AA right now offers 5 daily non stops to PHX and 3-4 daily non stops to LAS. Once UA and US end their codeshare agreement the tables will flip and AA/US will offer 6-9 flights a day to PHX and 6-8 flights a day to LAS while UA will then go back to our normal (precode share) 4-5 non stops a day to PHX and probably 5 non stops a day to LAS. The point being it will still be a wash but it is not enough to put AA on top O&D wise. (I know US flies to both CLT and PHL from ORD but in those markets UA keeps those passengers on UA metal and does not depend on US for help. Whereas UA sends a lot of passenger both local and connecting to US who are to go PHX and LAS). Once the code share ends UA hopes that they will be keeping all the UA O&D traffic (which is quite substantial) they now send over to US on these 2 flights.

I don't know how much US O&D traffic you think US brings to the table in Chicago but I can assure you and the facts are undisputed and speak for themselves and although AA will be the worlds larges carrier the fact is UA not AA/US will still be number one at ORD in terms of O&D, ASM, destinations served, daily number of non stop flights.
 
jayunited
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:21 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 25):
Here's the problem with your ORD scenario. It might very BE that the combined carrier might have to relinquish some ORD slots & Gates as UA CO had to in EWR to WN. VX I understand is chomping at the BIT for slots and Gates, Especially the ones held presently by US Air, UAL beat the Airport to the punch by Moving Sco to Terminal 1 pretty quickly following the announcement of the merger. This might get interesting at ORD because AA is right at gate capacity there.

ORD is not a slot controlled airport the problem at ORD is available gate space.
While US airways does in fact at times use some of UA's gate I highly doubt that once merged AA will have any operations in T2. The question now is does US actually own the 3 permanent gates they occupy in terminal 2 or are they leasing those gates from another airline like CO was doing from NW when DL & NW merged and DL decided to evict CO because they needed the gates for their own operation.

O'Hare is one of those airports where outside of T5 the City of Chicago does not own a lot of gates the airlines do and I'm pretty sure that if US does not own those gates either DL or UA does (remember UA's operation use to be based out of T2 before T1 was built many years ago so UA could still be the owner of some of those gates) and if that is the case there is no way in hell VX or any other airline will get their hands on those gates and there is nothing the City of Chicago can do to change that.
 
N126DL
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:30 am

How about US Express/Piedmont and HHH? It's the only scheduled commercial service. Many Dash-8-300s a day...
DH84 E135/145/175/190 CR2/7/9 A319/20/21 A332/3 D95 M80/83/88/90/95 73W/8/9 752/3 763/4 772/L
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:03 am

Quoting jayunited (Reply 29):
I don't know how much US O&D traffic you think US brings to the table in Chicago but I can assure you and the facts are undisputed and speak for themselves and although AA will be the worlds larges carrier the fact is UA not AA/US will still be number one at ORD in terms of O&D, ASM, destinations served, daily number of non stop flights.

No.

AA+US will be the largest O&D carrier in Chicago.

Slide 15

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...0119312513057505/d484344dex991.htm
a.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:59 am

On hub to hub, Ill predict:

ORD-CLT: Increased gauge and frequency, RJs gone UA response all RJ less frequency
ORD-PHL: Increased gauge and frequency, RJs gone UA response mostly RJ
ORD-DCA: Increased gauge, no frequency change RJs, gone. No UA changes
ORD-PHX: Increased gauge, no frequency changes 757s/321s

DFW-CLT: Increased gauge 757s/321s no frequency change
DFW-PHL Increased gauge 757s/321s no frequency change
DFW-PHX: increased gauge 757s/321s frequency increase to offset PHX hub decline

CLT-PHX Frequency reduction
PHL-PHX: Frequency reduction

MIA-CLT: Frequency increase and No RJs
MIA-PHL: No frequency change but 757s/321s
MIA-PHX: No change
MIA-DCA: No change

I may be wrong as FAM will determine largely what is done.
 
United1
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:23 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 32):
Quoting jayunited (Reply 29):
I don't know how much US O&D traffic you think US brings to the table in Chicago but I can assure you and the facts are undisputed and speak for themselves and although AA will be the worlds larges carrier the fact is UA not AA/US will still be number one at ORD in terms of O&D, ASM, destinations served, daily number of non stop flights.

No.

AA+US will be the largest O&D carrier in Chicago.

Potentially....those figures are from DOT data between 2nd quarter 2010 &1st quarter 2011....things may have changed a bit since then.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
phxa340
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:08 am

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 24):
But again, PHX is in a much better position for route support than CVG and MEM ....

How so ? PHX suffers from close proximity to other better positioned hubs (DFW and LAX). Any analyst in Tempe will tell you that PHX also suffers either the worst (or sometimes 2nd worst) yields in the system.

PHX is very well served via WN, UA, DL, legacy AA, etc. PHX will be drawn down - substantially. LAX and DFW can efficiently handle 85% + of the traffic that currently flows through PHX.
 
PHX787
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:57 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 35):
How so ? PHX suffers from close proximity to other better positioned hubs (DFW and LAX). Any analyst in Tempe will tell you that PHX also suffers either the worst (or sometimes 2nd worst) yields in the system.

I've heard so much about these yields but that's mostly because of 1) WN and 2) the fact that PHX is a rather inexpensive airport. A combined US/AA will raise fares (as per ABC15) and honestly that will probably not shake most fliers, especially if they need to go international.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
tommy767
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:00 am

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 9):
Why exactly does anyone think CLT will be de-hubbed? That just doesn't make sense to me at all.

It doesn't to me either. A nutters are forgetting that CLT is the 2nd biggest financial hub in the country. US moves out, WN or NK will move in.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
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IrishAyes
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:17 am

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 25):
Here's the problem with your ORD scenario. It might very BE that the combined carrier might have to relinquish some ORD slots & Gates as UA CO had to in EWR to WN.

Your facts are off.

As others have pointed out, ORD is not a slot-restricted airport. In addition, the AA gates at ORD are not being utilized to full capacity.

Second, CO moved to T1 long before the announcement of the UA merger. In fact, almost as early as a year prior.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 27):
Maybe even pick up all of the L gates with the understanding that some L gates may become mixed use gates to relieve international departures during peak afternoon periods (e.g. what will be happening this year with AB and QR) and what's been happening with IB and JL flights all departing out of T3 after arriving in T5.

   i like where your head is at. I'm somewhat surprised that BA and CX operate out of T5.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 32):
No.

AA+US will be the largest O&D carrier in Chicago.

Slide 15

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...1.htm

I find it interesting that this presentation is entirely focused on the network growth of the Midwest and East coast and completely neglects focus on the West coast. Suffice to say the writing is indeed on the wall for PHX.
 
jayunited
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:30 am

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 27):
That said, the ideal option for AA at ORD would be for carriers like NK,B6,VX to move from their L gates over to the US gates and have AA take over those L gates. Maybe even pick up all of the L gates with the understanding that some L gates may become mixed use gates to relieve international departures during peak afternoon periods (e.g. what will be happening this year with AB and QR) and what's been happening with IB and JL flights all departing out of T3 after arriving in T5.

AA only owns 5 or 6 gates on the L concourse the rest are owned by the City of Chicago, the other remaining gates Delta turned over to the City of Chicago after they merged with Northwest and moved their operations to T2 because Northwest owned more gates in T2 which gave Delta more room for their operation at ORD. So although the city would love to see more competition at ORD it won't happen because the city only owns a few gates on the L concourse in addition to all the gates at T5 and those gates are already full. And as I said before if US does not own the 3 permanent gates they now have in T2 then either Delta or United does so NK, B6, VX and others will not be moving to T2.
 
USAirALB
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:46 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 23):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):Wouldn't be surprised if LAXPIT and LHRPIT join them. AA/US might no longer be hubbed there, but it is a strong operation and has room to grow to cater to the business community.
I agree. I wonder whether there might be room for a bit more point to point at PIT when all is said and done, both on Eagle (BNA, IND, MKE, MSY) and on mainline (SEA, SAN). I wouldn't say it's hugely likely, but if AA wants to grow some p2p operations and lock down local O&D in markets where it can leverage size, PIT seems like a sensible place to try that.

I can definitely see LAX, and probably JFK as well.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:51 am

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 37):
A nutters are forgetting that CLT is the 2nd biggest financial hub in the country.

With the BofA HQ there, 2nd largest banking center, perhaps, but 2nd biggest financial center, it couldn't possibly be. Charlotte doesn't even host a financial exchange.
International Homo of Mystery
 
USAirALB
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 6:57 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 41):
With the BofA HQ there, 2nd largest banking center, perhaps, but 2nd biggest financial center, it couldn't possibly be. Charlotte doesn't even host a financial exchange.

CLT is indeed the second largest financial center in the US by assets. Keep in mind though that the banking in Charlotte usually deals with Aunt Sally's savings account in Kalamazoo. The big investment banking business and financial trading is done in NYC.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:06 pm

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 40):
I can definitely see LAX, and probably JFK as well.

AA already flies JFKPIT.
a.
 
Bobloblaw
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:59 pm

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 37):

I'm begining to think A.net has been overwhelmed by teenagers.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6216
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:01 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 44):
I'm begining to think A.net has been overwhelmed by teenagers.

Very few people have actually said CLT would be de-hubbed and the notion is starting to . The majority of people, myself included, have said that AA will not need a 650 flight operation at CLT. We have also said 450-500 would be a perfect number. I maintain that there will be no need to fly from CLT to FCO or DUB, but that CLT would definately keep LHR and FRA year round as well as CDG and MAD either year round or seasonal. I also see BA showing up at CLT. I dont see GIG lasting nor many of the smaller Caribbean destinations, but CLTGRU could work if they retime it.

I base all of that off of what role I see CLT playing for the combined carrier along with its O&D numbers.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
winginit
Posts: 3064
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:04 pm

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 18):
All AA and US hubs will be maintained.

in the next 16-18 months? Yes, yes they will. Once the two airlines are operating under the same cetificate? Dream on. Those who believe that all of the merged hubs will be maintained are surely the same folk who believe the campaign promises that politicians make.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7700
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:35 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
Wouldn't be surprised if LAXPIT and LHRPIT join them. AA/US might no longer be hubbed there, but it is a strong operation and has room to grow to cater to the business community.

LHRPIT -- as in London-Heathrow to PIT? I'll believe that when I see it... That would be nice, tho.

Now, regarding all this talk of CLT being dehubbed. I think PIT and PHL BOTH will see A380 flying before that happens! It has good O&D, a solid business community, it's a large market. US doesn't maintain some 600 daily flights just for the sake of running that many flights! It's a massive operation, and it's apparently making money. Why would US want to cut off its nose to spite its face? I think CLT could add something to AA.

As for JFK vs PHL. Yes, I could see more of Philly's transatlantic flying shifted up to JFK with maybe LHR and a couple of others remaining. JFK is mainly an int'l gateway; not so much a domestic hub for AA. PHL would handle mostly domestic connections and a few int'l nonstops. Which PHL European destinations have sufficient enough O&D to have service maintained rather than shifted to JFK if this is the case? FRA? CDG? FCO?
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6216
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:38 pm

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 47):
Which PHL European destinations have sufficient enough O&D to have service maintained rather than shifted to JFK if this is the case? FRA? CDG? FCO?

Traditionally, airlines look for one or more of serveral factors. The factors below dont apply quite as much to places like NYC, LAX, SFO, and MIA who have such a high volume that they can fill planes to anywhere (sans MIA-Asia):

1) In a higher yielding market, you want to be able to fill at minimum 1/4-1/3 of a flight with O&D (think DFW-GRU or IAH-EZE)
2) In a lower yielding market, you want to be able to fill at least half of a flight with O&D (think most of PHL-FCO)
3) In a trunk market, you want to be able to fill almost all of your plane with O&D. (think LAS-Europe, MCO-Brazil, and MIA-AMS/Scandinavia).
4) With long distance flights that cant meet those marks, you need to have direct and convienent connectivity to markets that are high in volume, yield, or both (think ATL-Africa).

To address PHL-Europe directly, like most US markets, the only place PHL could fill an entire plane with O&D is LHR. However, PHL-FCO/CDG/FRA could fill more than half of a 330. In my mind those markets are completely safe. To go along with that, PHL-MAN/MAD are both just shy of 50 passengers. Especially since MAN is served from JFK and ORD, I cant see a justification for getting rid of it though I can see it being opperated with a 757 or 767. With the ATI, PHL-MAD should be safe as well.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
AJMIA
Posts: 434
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RE: AA/US Merger Impact: Routes Part 2

Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:52 pm

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
MIA-PHX: No change

I think MIA-PHX will increase to at least 3x daily with one morning, afternoon and evening departure.

AJMIA
Lady it's a jet... not a kite.

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