DAE Cancels Boeing 747-8F Order

Bogi · Thu May 02, 2013 8:22 pm

"Boeing confirmed Thursday that the leasing firm had dropped its five remaining 747-8 freighters on order, having cancelled another five in December."

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dubai-...ls-boeing-747-order-20130502-01417

falkerker · Thu May 02, 2013 8:27 pm

The only worst thing that could happen to Boeing is an imminent maiden flight by the A350

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

kaitak · Thu May 02, 2013 9:00 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

I think it's more a reflection on DAE; does this company have any aircraft on order anymore? Did it ever manage to place even one with an airline (apart from orders which it placed, which were then taken over by EK - which doesn't really count!). It seems to have been a pretty dismal failure as a leasing company.

Ronaldo747 · Thu May 02, 2013 9:04 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

Stitch · Thu May 02, 2013 9:04 pm

DAE's 747-8s were originally ordered by Emirates SkyCargo, who then sold them to DAE and planned to lease them back.

EK's original order was for 10, but they have been drawing that down (with DAE cancelling frames), so looks like EK has decided the 777F is sufficient for them and they do not want anything larger.

RickNRoll · Thu May 02, 2013 9:20 pm

Quoting kaitak (Reply 2):
I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

The problem for the 747-8 is that no other line of plane has depended on the freighters for it's success. Take away the freighters from the 747-8 sales, and you have a line that is ready to be shut down.

rotating14 · Thu May 02, 2013 9:29 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.

JHwk · Thu May 02, 2013 9:47 pm

It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

It seems like the 747 basically needs to be priced to match the 777 to have a life left, and I doubt that would be profitable. I fear the Queen's day's are numbered.

JoeCanuck · Thu May 02, 2013 10:23 pm

With the huge investment in the 748, Boeing will settle for slowing the production rate before considering shutting down the line. For sure, the 748i is basically a T-Rex looking up at a growing fireball in the sky, but the cargo version should live on for quite some time.

It will take a couple of years with no orders after the last one rolls off of the line before production shuts down for good.

My guess it will last until around 2020.

boeingguy26 · Fri May 03, 2013 5:20 am

I am a huge fan of the 747-8i/f and am hoping in the near future it will pick up some business.

I know that the 748 is basically being buried by the 77X, 351 (the 773 began the decay of 747, really), but with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated? If DLH shows some good results, maybe other customers will be willing to peak again at the 748i? Just hoping because she's a beautiful machine!

Francoflier · Fri May 03, 2013 7:00 am

The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

I expect CX to get additional frames, especially if they can shift their older -400F faster (Boeing will be happy to help them with that, I'm sure). The dice is still rolling as far as them getting the -8i...

KarelXWB · Fri May 03, 2013 7:47 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.

I doesn't really matter who's fault it is, fact is that Boeing has lost 10 orders (5 in December 2012 and 5 this month) = 5 months of production at the old rate of 2 frames per month. That's a lot IMO, no wonder they had to cut the production rate.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

The world will not stop rotating if Boeing shuts down the 747 production line. Operators will find other solutions.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.

Let's hope so.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
With the huge investment in the 748

Now imagine the investment costs if Boeing had developed a CFRP wing for the 747.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

[Edited 2013-05-03 00:48:47]

frigatebird · Fri May 03, 2013 8:03 am

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

There will still be a market for a large freighter. Etihad will soon be a another new operator for the 748F. No new order, it will be leased from Atlas, but I'm quite optimistic EY will eventually place an order themselves. Just like TK did with the 77W: lease a few first, discover its capabilities and than place direct order with Boeing for their own machines.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 7):
It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

I'm fairly sure Boeing already knew this cancellation was on its way, no production slots were assigned yet.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 9):
with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated?

They seem to be doing better than expected at EIS, but are still quite some way off from the original specs.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F,

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
My guess it will last until around 2020.

It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.

na · Fri May 03, 2013 8:38 am

In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?

Ronaldo747 · Fri May 03, 2013 9:10 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service,

As I mentioned in another thread, the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.

Asiaflyer · Fri May 03, 2013 9:13 am

Quoting na (Reply 13):
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?

What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?

na · Fri May 03, 2013 9:34 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 15):
What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).

frigatebird · Fri May 03, 2013 10:29 am

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 14):
the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.

Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload... Like the 77W vs the 748i. Difference in payload would be bigger in the 778F - 748F case, but also the difference in efficiency would be (much!) bigger.

Danny · Fri May 03, 2013 11:27 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 11):
Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

0,5 per month cannot be profitable. They'll shut it once new, larger variants of 777 become avaliable.

FlyingAY · Fri May 03, 2013 12:01 pm

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F

What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot? I know about the nose loading, but is that a deal breaker for most of the operators?

There is not a single older plane that the 77F would perfectly replace - however, it's a popular plane that I expect will get even more popular. This means the operators who introduce 77F are not making 1:1 replacements, which probably means that 77F will replace some planes that it cannot replace. If you don't absolutely need the nose-loading of the 747, I'd say the cost-revenue delta looks more attractive on the 777F...

Revelation · Fri May 03, 2013 12:03 pm

Quoting na (Reply 13):
In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

That's one thought. Another thought is that planes that save 15% on fuel don't help much when fuel costs grow 300% and will probably continue to rise, so it's not exactly clear which cargo a/c will be replaced. For many important markets, shippers are choosing to deal with the delays associated with ground and sea transport instead of the increasing cost of air freight.

Quoting na (Reply 16):

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).

Both players react. B787 was a reaction to A330 and will be the A330 killer in the mid term future. A350 is a reaction to the B787 and will be a 777 killer in the mid term future.

The 777E is too big a plane to be in the 787/A330 market. It will be replaced from below by 787-10 and above by 778-X.

The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

B777-8X will be fine with an AL fuse.

moo · Fri May 03, 2013 12:10 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 20):
The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

The only issue I would take with that sentence is that the A350XWB launched at the Farnborough International Airshow with an AL fuselage and only switched to CFRP several months later.

SEPilot · Fri May 03, 2013 2:21 pm

Quoting na (Reply 13):

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.

Boeing will build the plane that makes them the most money. If the 748 is going to be eclipsed, better it be by another Boeing model than by an Airbus.

Ronaldo747 · Fri May 03, 2013 2:28 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload

The 747-8F is not that inefficient I would say. On certain missions (hot & high, short runways etc.) the 747-8F will still have performance advantages over a 777-8F, given it's engines will probably have less thrust anyway.

PanAm1971 · Fri May 03, 2013 4:17 pm

Listen to all this panic. The 747-8F will be just fine. There really isn't a true competitor for it. As the world economy improves-so will the sales of the 747-8F... as well as other cargo aircraft. What concerns me more is 748i sales.

WesternA318 · Fri May 03, 2013 4:20 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

The 747-8 has no coffin for it, and wont for a while. This is definately a reflection on the poor statistics of the leasing company.

babybus · Fri May 03, 2013 4:39 pm

Quoting JHwk (Reply 7):
It seems like the 747 basically needs to be priced to match the 777 to have a life left, and I doubt that would be profitable. I fear the Queen's day's are numbered.

I agree with that.

Just from a very passive observer point of view the 'new' 747 was a mockery and even its own marketing blurb never made convincing reading.

seabosdca · Fri May 03, 2013 5:07 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 18):
They'll shut it once new, larger variants of 777 become avaliable.

The writing is on the wall for the 747-8, but it has quite a few years before it will actually be redundant.

Boeing will eventually build a 777-8LXF. That frame will be big enough, and be convincingly more efficient enough, that it will spell the end of the 747. But before that happens, Boeing will need to get through the inevitable passenger backlog of the 777-9X, which will probably take 5+ years after 777X EIS. Expect a 777-8XF entering service in the late 2020s. Until then, there will still be heavy air cargo demand, and there will still be 747-8F demand.

I'd expect to see at least a decade more of 747-8F production, even if at 1 or 1.25 frames/month.

falkerker · Fri May 03, 2013 5:15 pm

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 25):
The 747-8 has no coffin for it

The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have stated, the 777-8F will steer freight companies away from the 747-8

skipness1E · Fri May 03, 2013 5:52 pm

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 24):
Listen to all this panic. The 747-8F will be just fine. There really isn't a true competitor for it.

The major players who bought new B744Fs and might reasonably have been expected to buy the B748F have already ordered. The only medium size replacement orders I might see coming down the pipeline would be China Airlines and Singapore Cargo. Korean Air Cargo are already dabbling with the B77F and Emirates and Air France already went down that two engined path.
The B747-8i is dead in the water and will be buried by the upcoming B777 replacement and A350s.

Yes the B747-8 is sleek, elegant and beautiful but given that only a single major airline has put down a "significant" order for the passenger variant and the remainder are luxury toys and dribs and drabs from existing customers, the figures just don't add up. Boeing will be concentrating on the B777 upgrade and you can bet sales will be focussed laser like on that. The B747-8F line will pootle along for a few years to fulfil remaining orders and like the MD11 before it, it will be closed. Can anyone see a new double digit freighter order yet to come? If so, from where?

WesternA318 · Fri May 03, 2013 6:27 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 28):
The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have stated, the 777-8F will steer freight companies away from the 747-8

Would the proposed 777-8F have the same payload capability of the 7478?

falkerker · Fri May 03, 2013 7:22 pm

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 30):
Would the proposed 777-8F have the same payload capability of the 7478?

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload... Like the 77W vs the 748i. Difference in payload would be bigger in the 778F - 748F case, but also the difference in efficiency would be (much!) bigger.

The 747-8 has bigger payload capabilities but it also has MUCH lower efficiency. The 777-8X will offset the 747 due to it's much more tempting efficiency, even if the payload is a tad smaller.

rampbro · Fri May 03, 2013 8:02 pm

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 19):
What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot?

Lose two engines and not crash.

Quoting babybus (Reply 26):
the 'new' 747 was a mockery

Nonsense. The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different. I'm going to conclude that you've never travelled on one, and I will also venture that you've never even spotted one.

Hong Kong World Trader flew directly overhead of at about FL10 the other night whilst I was playing cricket. Magnificent machine.

falkerker · Fri May 03, 2013 8:06 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 32):
The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different.

I know those are ¨BIG¨ differences in these forums, but to the average Joe, does it really make a difference? WOuld the majority of the passengers pay the difference to travel in a 747 instead of any other aircraft that would still take them from A to B on time?

Quoting babybus (Reply 26):
the 'new' 747 was a mockery and even its own marketing blurb never made convincing reading.

It didn´t bring anything new to what matters most, fuel efficiency and comfort.

boeingguy26 · Fri May 03, 2013 8:39 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 32):
Nonsense. The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different. I'm going to conclude that you've never travelled on one, and I will also venture that you've never even spotted one.

falkerker · Fri May 03, 2013 8:41 pm

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 34):
if it aint Boeing I aint going

JoeCanuck · Fri May 03, 2013 8:42 pm

Quoting falkerker (Reply 33):
It didn´t bring anything new to what matters most, fuel efficiency and comfort.

I always thought that the -8, just wasn't enough aircraft to compete...it was always going to be too close to the 77W on the bottom end and the 380 at the top. EK and others had already been putting 747 sized passenger loads on their 77W's, so the writing was already on the wall.

Boeing knew from the outset that the VLA market is limited

It seemed to me to be too big of a job for too little gain. I know it would have been a daunting task, but instead of the stretch, (or in addition to), they would have been better served by stretching the top floor all the way back, making it a true double decker.

Still, that time has past and it's a big twin world we live in. There will be jobs for which the 8i will be ideally suited but there aren't many. The -8F's longevity will depend, in part, on how desirable 744 conversions end up being.

I'm a bit surprised that no military have purchased any, as an alternative to the C-17 or the like.

Stitch · Fri May 03, 2013 10:10 pm

I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

JoeCanuck · Fri May 03, 2013 10:19 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Very good point...KE and LH are well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of every aircraft type and they wouldn't have bought the 748i if there was no advantage to do so.

Some side by side experience should bring interesting comparisons.

skipness1E · Fri May 03, 2013 11:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Actually the B777-X redevelopment is the comparison you need. Anyone ordering a new B747-8I would be looking to operate it for 20 years or more, so one needs to compare the B748 with the new upcoming platforms.

boeingguy26 · Fri May 03, 2013 11:55 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Where/When will this data be available?

PEK777 · Sat May 04, 2013 12:30 am

Shut 'er down boys!

Revelation · Sat May 04, 2013 12:33 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
It seemed to me to be too big of a job for too little gain.

And add to that two more years and millions more dollars than you intended to spend on it and you're in real hot water...

JoeCanuck · Sat May 04, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
And add to that two more years and millions more dollars than you intended to spend on it and you're in real hot water...

Still, as a fan, I'm happy as long as Boeing sees fit to produce them...even if they didn't see fit to take my wonderful advice about their plane.

PM · Sat May 04, 2013 5:16 am

On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered...

15 x 787-8
10 x 777-300ER
5 x 747-8F

And now they are all cancelled.

KarelXWB · Sat May 04, 2013 8:23 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 38):
Very good point...KE and LH are well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of every aircraft type and they wouldn't have bought the 748i if there was no advantage to do so.

But LH is not operating the 77W so the 747 fits perfectly in between the A346 and the A380's despite of those "disadvantages". KE on the other hand does operate to the 77W.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 40):
Where/When will this data be available?

I believe first deliveries are slated for 2014.

Unforgettably we hear almost nothing about KE's 748i aircraft. No seat maps, nothing about the cabin and routes it will fly.

[Edited 2013-05-04 01:24:43]

EPA001 · Sat May 04, 2013 9:59 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.

I think (and hope) so too.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 11):
Let's hope so.

I still have confidence in the B747-8F.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
There will still be a market for a large freighter.

I agree, but currently the cargo market is weak. The major cause for the losses AF-KLM posted this week is caused by the weak cargo market.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Now that would be very interesting indeed.

.

Quoting PM (Reply 44):
And now they are all cancelled.

That is not good for DAE, and not good for Boeing.

.

JoeCanuck · Sat May 04, 2013 4:01 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 45):

But LH is not operating the 77W so the 747 fits perfectly in between the A346 and the A380's despite of those "disadvantages". KE on the other hand does operate to the 77W.

True but I'm sure they're well aware of the operating costs associated with any plane they could purchase, whether or not they operate them, and choose aircraft based on their route structure.

I seems, though, that not a lot of airlines have found a niche for the 748. The 77X will make that niche even harder to find.

Revelation · Sat May 04, 2013 4:20 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 44):
On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered...

15 x 787-8
10 x 777-300ER
5 x 747-8F

And now they are all cancelled.

Very interesting.

To me it illustrates the effect of Dubai's overspending.

It's not that big an issue overall for Boeing because 25 of the frames will have no problem finding buyers.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 46):
I agree, but currently the cargo market is weak.

It's not a given that it will bounce back. Fuel prices are high and not too likely to decrease much if at all, and other modalities such as contianerized freight have improved to the point that customers have switched to using them, and it's not clear how the air freight industry will get them back.

Surely there will be a core set of customers that will continue to use air freight, and clearly the older freighters will continue to wear out and become economically unviable, but it's not clear to me how long Boeing will continue to tread water with the 747-8 program, especially keeping in mind it's best competition is its own 777F program so shutting down 747-8 will mainly shift any remaining orders to 777F. It'd be a gutsy move, but at some point Boeing might say it'd be better off using the space to build more 777s, and that point may come when it's time to build the 777Xs.

777way · Sat May 04, 2013 6:53 pm

Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?

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