Are further orders for the passenger version of the B747-8 then to expected?

Probably not. I cant see anymore airlines ordering anymore. Everybody who knows about does and knows what it is capable of. I can imagine when the 748 sales-team calls, most airlines are to the point of ".........ok .... oh really ...... no I didn't know that ..... Oh we just signed for some _______ sorry dude. Come back with a clean sheet and we will talk more." The truth is there is better out there in the form of the A380, A350, 777-8lx/x and 9x. It'll stay around as there is no other option as a freighter but passenger wise, no chance.

The cat bites itself in its own tail?

Quoting Bogi (Thread starter): Are further orders for the passenger version of the B747-8 then to expected?

Only from those, who will need something slightly bigger than 777-300ER as a passenger mover, and will not be willing to wait until 2019 for 777-9X.

After that year, it will be to the 777-9X what 767 is today for the 787 and what A330 will become to A350XWB.

It is time for people to accept that "Hunchback of the Puget Sound" is dying very slow and very painful death. Which is all good to me, the Mighty Triple Seven fan.

The 777-9X will further limit the chances for the -8I. A few dozen more frames will hopefully be sold, but I doubt that other than the -8F it´ll reach 3-digit numbers unless there is a massive upgrade to its engines.

The 777-9X, the "fat sausage from Seattle" as I like to call this ungainly product and its current predecessor, will surely attract the beancounters for some time and it´ll likely accelerate the end for the Queen of the skies in passenger form. But due to its inferior basic concept even a 777-9X wont be able to offer the level of passenger comfort like the 748I anymore. Simple tubes will rule at Seattle, the 777X means its now "economy before comfort", bad for the high-yield passenger. But thank god I´m am living in Germany and I am an LH fan so I´ll be able to fly the most beautiful plane ever for a long time to come.

But I predict the cooked-over 777X will also have a limited life. Airbus will strike back with upgrades to the A350 and A380, and a 748I-killing 777-9 would mean Boeing has no offer at the top of the line. I am sure that there will be a massive upgrade to the A388 announced when Boeing is in the middle of the 777-9 sales campaign.

Pity.

Quote: That leaves the 747-8 in the lurch.

Boeing 747 On Deathwatch: How Boeing’s New 777X Will Kill Its Jumbo Jet Predecessor, Once The Queen Of The Skies

I sincerely doubt it once the 9X is launched.

I think most airlines would rather wait despite the expected 6 year lead time to EIS.

QuotingBlueSky1976
"It is time for people to accept that "Hunchback of the Puget Sound" is dying very slow and very painful death. Which is all good to me, the Mighty Triple Seven fan."

Interesting how we can agree and disagree on the same subject. I would put it another way.

Sadly the Queen of the Skies is going into her twilight years to be replaced by a boring, noisy twin which I will admit has excellent economics.

I am affraid the 777 shall be the 748 Killer !

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 3): It is time for people to accept that "Hunchback of the Puget Sound" is dying very slow and very painful death. Which is all good to me, the Mighty Triple Seven fan.

Pretty sure the Hunchback refers to a variant of the 767 (the original 400 IIRC) that never got out of the concept stage.

I do agree that the future belongs to the 777x & the 350, with PAX 747s & 380s fizzling out over the next decade.

I also agree that the 777 is one great plane, and I can forgive the noise issue as I actually like the sound it makes; nothing quite like that. But there will always be a special place in my heart for the 747, and I do hope to see at least the freighter variant flying for decades to come.

Agreed the 747-8i's time is at an end... however in view of delivery timings for the 777-9X at the end of this decade, where capacity is needed sooner, could Boeing not do a deal to sell 747-8i's to potential 777-9X customers with some kind of buy-back clause in ten years time, when they can "swap" the 748i's for 779X's.

Boeing could then do freighter conversions with the old 747-8i's and everyone is happy?

perhaps a way in which some 747-8i sales might occur?

Did Hong Kong Airlines finally firm its 747-8 order?

Well, one may be sold to the US Government for Air Force One! Should be at least one more order coming..  

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 9): Pretty sure the Hunchback refers to a variant of the 767 (the original 400 IIRC) that never got out of the concept stage.

Nope. It refers to the 747; the term was conceived by grandfather of all a.net Mighty Triple Seven fanatics, whose name I will not mention in public out of fear of having another post deleted because of that. His alias included the name of famous supersonic passenger aircraft, to give you a hint.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 9): with PAX ........380s fizzling out over the next decade.

                       

Thanks; needed a good belly laugh !

Rgds

Never been a fan of flying on a 747, so the quicker they're gone the better for me. I vastly prefer the 777, so bring on the 777-9.

I say that with a fair amount of irony, however, in that with LH and the 747-8 they finally got it right in my eyes, at least as it applies to First Class. The extra noise insulation LH had installed makes the nose the quietest part of the plane and the installation of only eight suites eliminates the claustrophobia I feel on carriers who have 12 or 14 suites in the nose of their 747-400s.

Quoting Bogi (Reply 2): The cat bites itself in its own tail?

I don't think Boeing will be losing too much sleep over that decision. They will rake in the money, whether they are selling 747s or 777s. The reality of the situation is that twins are preferred over quads, so building a large twin like the 777-9X is the only logical thing for Boeing to do in order to tap into this market.

Quoting na (Reply 4): But due to its inferior basic concept

Inferior basic concept? Really? So THAT'S why 777s have been out-selling 747s for so many years now?  

Quoting na (Reply 4): even a 777-9X wont be able to offer the level of passenger comfort like the 748I anymore.

"Passenger comfort" is a subjective measure that is highly dependent on how the airline configures the airframe, and less so on the aircraft itself.

Well... I'll be one of those few loners who will book LH and KL to keep flying on 747's.   I can't wait to fly on the 748i. Thank goodness for the LH order. It means I'll be able to fly on 748's for at least the next 15 years or so. Plenty of time. I hope KL keeps their 744M's for a while too. I flew one last Feb and just loved it. Not really a big fan of the 777 or the A380.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 12): Well, one may be sold to the US Government for Air Force One! Should be at least one more order coming..

That order should be for at least three aircraft. I believe that is for two air force ones and one for the secretary of defense.

tortugamon

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 9): I do agree that the future belongs to the 777x & the 350, with PAX 747s & 380s fizzling out over the next decade.

I agree with that statement about the VLAs demand in the future. I do believe that with the introduction of the A350, the B787-9, and the future versions of the B777 that will be the end of the B747 and the A380. The writing was on the wall with the A340-500,600 which is not selling due to their high operating costs with the 4 engines. The development of the newer engines allows for planes like the B777 and A350 to really become the standard for the aviation industry.

Quoting na (Reply 4): The 777-9X, the "fat sausage from Seattle" as I like to call this ungainly product and its current predecessor, will surely attract the beancounters for some time

The 777-300ER is a very graceful beautiful airplane. That much is opinion. What isn't a debatable opinion is that the 777, especially the 777-300ER, is a strong candidate to be labeled the safest, best designed, most reliable and most economical airplane ever built to date. And I do know a bit about airplanes.

How many people have ever died in a 777 accident in almost 20 years? Hint: the answer starts with a big fat "Z".

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 9): with PAX 747s & 380s fizzling out over the next decade.

Assuming you don't get out of the U.S. all that often... thanks for the belly laugh... there's a whole new world out there and it's being made smaller by the A380. The Queen is dead, long live the King.

Freighter versions of the 748 will be around for a long time but their time for passengers is passed, put finally to rest by the 777-9X.

From motorhussy:
"...The Queen is dead, long live the King."

A380 has not enough history/success to call itself a "King".

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 14): Thanks; needed a good belly laugh !

Well, they haven't been exactly selling like hot cakes either. And IMO, if it weren't for EK, we could be having the same comparison with the A380 vs. the A350.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 11): Did Hong Kong Airlines finally firm its 747-8 order?

No they have not - neither has Transaero as far as I know. I doubt Hong Kong ever will; Transaero, hopefully. Those will be some pretty sharp looking airplanes!

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18): Quoting jreuschl (Reply 12): Well, one may be sold to the US Government for Air Force One! Should be at least one more order coming.. That order should be for at least three aircraft. I believe that is for two air force ones and one for the secretary of defense.

   Correct. If not for all the financial craziness (sequester and all that) I think they already would have been ordered.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 22): A380 has not enough history/success to call itself a "King".

How are you measuring success? Performance, ability, sheer size, reliability, unparalleled comfort in all classes...

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 25):

I believe if the A380 can make it through the change in markets the B747 made it through, then it can be considered. Otherwise, the program is still in its infancy compared to what the B747 blazed.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 12): Well, one may be sold to the US Government for Air Force One! Should be at least one more order coming..

Would be neat to see a 772LR or 777-8X as a successor to the current Air Force One.. The 777 would wear those colors really nicely.. It would give a new definition to the term ETOPS.. Engines Turn Or President Swims  

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 23): Well, they haven't been exactly selling like hot cakes either.

A slow, steady accumulation of blue chip carriers seems IMHO to be quite acceptable in the worst recession in living memory; and there's always further improvements, tweaks and s t r e t c h e s down the line.  

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 23): And IMO, if it weren't for EK, we could be having the same comparison with the A380 vs. the A350.

This "if it wasn't for EK" line always irritates me. it's so Scooby Doo in it's worth; "If it wasn't for you pesky kids..blah blah..."

Simple economics; a sale is a sale is a sale; deal done.

It really doesn't really matter what name gets painted on the side, just so long as cash comes in and an aircraft flies away.

Rgds

Quoting brilondon (Reply 19): agree with that statement about the VLAs demand in the future. I do believe that with the introduction of the A350, the B787-9, and the future versions of the B777 that will be the end of the B747 and the A380.

Exactly what they said about the B763ER destroying the B744. The A388 certainly seems to have a proper passenger appeal and those pesky up and coming airlines like Emirates seem to have found a use for them, as have Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways et al. It's the US which is atypical here alas,

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 23): And IMO, if it weren't for EK, we could be having the same comparison with the A380 vs. the A350.

The key point is that you're not as Emirates have a massive fleet on order. That's pretty crucial to the argument.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 12): Well, one may be sold to the US Government for Air Force One! Should be at least one more order coming

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18): That order should be for at least three aircraft. I believe that is for two air force ones and one for the secretary of defense

The Secretary of Defense having his own 747? That's rich! They'll order two, not three.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 26): I believe if the A380 can make it through the change in markets the B747 made it through, then it can be considered. Otherwise, the program is still in its infancy compared to what the B747 blazed.

Crown prince at best, certainly not king....yet. The 747 was a bigger leap, sizewise, than the A380. And over a 40+ year production run and ~1458 made, A380 has a LONG way to go to even match it, far less best it. Eventually, but not any time soon.

Worth remembering the B747 has two generations so if you're going to look at numbers split it B741 / 2 / 3 and B744. Any A380NG is a loooong way away yet.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 30): The Secretary of Defense having his own 747? That's rich! They'll order two, not three.

He has one now - the E-4B.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 30): Crown prince at best, certainly not king....yet. The 747 was a bigger leap, sizewise, than the A380. And over a 40+ year production run and ~1458 made, A380 has a LONG way to go to even match it, far less best it. Eventually, but not any time soon.

I'll consider the "prince" thought. Otherwise, the A380 has much to prove.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 30): The 747 was a bigger leap, sizewise, than the A380. And over a 40+ year production run and ~1458 made, A380 has a LONG way to go to even match it, far less best it.

In terms of general technology and general ambition, the A380-800 in my opinion is as much a leap forward as the 747-100 was.

And anyway, everyone knows planes, like ships, are feminine so the correct form of address for the A380 should be "Empress".  

[Edited 2013-05-07 16:07:27]

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34): And anyway, everyone knows planes, like ships, are feminine so the correct form of address for the A380 should be "Empress".

Actually more like that song from Queen; "Fat Bottom Girl(s)"

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34): And anyway, everyone knows planes, like ships, are feminine so the correct form of address for the A380 should be "Empress".

I guess we were trying to be nice to the feminine nature by not calling that "bulky" machine a her  

Now, now Stitch; there will only ever be one "Empress"



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Photo © Kjell Nilsson


Rgds

380 obviously owns its niche, it may need to become the 390 to maintain that niche, but that niche is small. And after 13 years it is hard to ignore than only about 20 per year have been ordered. The 350 and the 787 are major competitors. And unexpectedly, at least by me, an updated 777 may be a more serious competitor. None of this is to trash the 380/390 which is obviously a great plane. At the 13 year mark the 747 had 433 orders - in what was then a far smaller world economy. It is hard to argue against the observation that big 4 engine planes have had their day - even thought a bit of a niche remains.

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 28): This "if it wasn't for EK" line always irritates me. it's so Scooby Doo in it's worth; "If it wasn't for you pesky kids..blah blah..."

Yet it always was "those pesky kids" in the end, wasn't it.

Look, the fact is that neither are selling well right now. When the economy improves both will see sales. True, the 779-X will be a thorn in the 748's side. But neither one (A380 & 747-8i) will see massive numbers. Even with an A389, I personally don't think you'll see 744 type numbers. There just isn't the demand for it. Outside of EK of course.  

I think it is more than reasonable to assume that between now and EIS for the 777-9 (which is realistically 2020 at the earliest) the Intercontinental will see at least enough orders to hit 100.

The freighter market is more iffy in my opinion. Some are thinking that air freight is on a much larger downward trend because of cost vs ground transport.

Its still quite possible that the Intercontinental will outsell the freighter by a significant margin.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 20): How many people have ever died in a 777 accident in almost 20 years? Hint: the answer starts with a big fat "Z".

Unless you count the refueling accident in Denver: http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20010905-1

IMHO the A380 will be here for a long long time.
I will be stretched, then re-engined for two different models.
I beleive the sales peak of the A380 will occure after this, around 2020, with sales maybe coming to an end after 2030.
I would not be surprised if the A380 will be selling to 2040. Tweaks, and emerging China and perhaps India, could see to it.
I think more than a 1000 A380's will be built and Mr Leahy himself will retire before the his "baby" does.

Quoting chiad (Reply 42): IMHO the A380 will be here for a long long time.

IMO that depends...

The A388 will be around until technology advances to the point that a twin with similar passenger capacity can be built. At that point it will be obsolete. I could see Y3 encroaching on the A388's capacity range closely enough to make it unattractive to airlines.

They can get some more life out the A389 if they build it, especially if they push it out near the 80 meter limit. That would remain unmatched for a long, long time to come. I don't know what the capacity of an A389 with an 80m fuselage would be but it would be a HUGE jump that would be analogous to the jump that the 747 made in the 60s.

For this reason I have really come around on the A389. It will be built, eventually. In a world with a future population in the teens of billions, there will be a business case for it.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 13): the term was conceived by grandfather of all a.net Mighty Triple Seven fanatics, whose name I will not mention in public out of fear of having another post deleted because of that. His alias included the name of famous supersonic passenger aircraft, to give you a hint.

I'm afraid to ask!

Quoting brilondon (Reply 19): I agree with that statement about the VLAs demand in the future. I do believe that with the introduction of the A350, the B787-9, and the future versions of the B777 that will be the end of the B747 and the A380. The writing was on the wall with the A340-500,600 which is not selling due to their high operating costs with the 4 engines. The development of the newer engines allows for planes like the B777 and A350 to really become the standard for the aviation industry.

More or less. The problem the the 388 faces is not the 77X (sure as hell not the 748i), but the 35J.

I think what a lot of us forget about the 388 is that the same rules apply to that as the 747 when we look at future sales & developments. The 77W more or less finished off the 744, as will the 77X do the 748i. While I do not think it will end up quite as bad for the 380, I'm a bit baffled as to why we think it will go any different when the 359 & 35J hit full stride. It's already obvious that Airbus wants to support the 350 program a good deal more than they want to develop a 380-900.

To wit, I think Airbus will support and develop the 35J (never mind that it is a naturally more efficient aircraft and much easier to finance for operators) a good deal more than the 380. This alone will push more sales to the 35X family than for the 388s.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 21): Assuming you don't get out of the U.S. all that often... thanks for the belly laugh... there's a whole new world out there and it's being made smaller by the A380.

Assuming you don't work on a 380 everyday. Or know a lot of the folks at the airlines that actually operate them. There's a whole world out there, you know.  


I'm overseas about twice a month. Perhaps you do the same?  

As for the world being made smaller, why is that only now, with the 380? Did the 747, Concorde, 767/777 and A340 not do the same?

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 20): How many people have ever died in a 777 accident in almost 20 years? Hint: the answer starts with a big fat "Z".

Don't jinx it.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 23): Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 14): Thanks; needed a good belly laugh ! Well, they haven't been exactly selling like hot cakes either.

No, they haven't. And it's no coincidence that 350 sales have picked up a great deal in the same amount of time.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 24): No they have not - neither has Transaero as far as I know. I doubt Hong Kong ever will; Transaero, hopefully. Those will be some pretty sharp looking airplanes!

They would be, yes. But I'm not sure about Transaero either.

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 25): How are you measuring success? Performance, ability, sheer size, reliability, unparalleled comfort in all classes...

Sales. How else?

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 28): and there's always further improvements, tweaks and s t r e t c h e s down the line.

Tweaks & PIPs, yes. But...

Have we seen any commitment from Airbus for the 389? There is indeed an outside chance that CX would take some. And EK. But with EK, we have to remember that they like to order in numbers that would be large enough to require a large discount to make it work. We're not privy to work out to, but we do know that to make it worth their (Airbus I mean), while, it would very likely have to work out to less of a discount than EK would be interested in. Unless they can find a lot of other customers, this doesn't yet pass the threshold for it being worth A's while (We have to remember that they are also very busy with the 32XNEO, the 359, 35J, and whatever else they want to do with the 330.)

I won't say the 389 won't happen, but from what I've seen from inside this business, there isn't anything like the cause for optimism we see here. I will say it had a better chance than any future 747 (i) variant, but I think we know that's not saying much.

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 28): Simple economics; a sale is a sale is a sale; deal done. It really doesn't really matter what name gets painted on the side, just so long as cash comes in and an aircraft flies away.

Absolutely. Deliveries have been great, I think Malaysian just picked up the 100th unit. But orders might be a different story. How's this been going lately?

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 37): Now, now Stitch; there will only ever be one "Empress"

Perhaps the best usage of orange on a livery ever, yes.

Quoting SCAT15F (Reply 40): I think it is more than reasonable to assume that between now and EIS for the 777-9 (which is realistically 2020 at the earliest) the Intercontinental will see at least enough orders to hit 100.

Hmmmm... For the F, at least, yes. For the i, my money's on something between 60 - 75.

Quoting brons2 (Reply 43): Quoting chiad (Reply 42): IMHO the A380 will be here for a long long time. IMO that depends... The A388 will be around until technology advances to the point that a twin with similar passenger capacity can be built.

And what size engine would a twin of that size require ? What would it cost to develop it (both the aircraft and the engine) and would there be any chance of a decent ROI on either ?
I can't see a case for a twin that large - the market isn't big enough and there is too much money to be made in the 300 to 450 seat segments.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): It's already obvious that Airbus wants to support the 350 program a good deal more than they want to develop a 380-900.

I think they are keen on supporting both - its just that the 350 needs to come first.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): Have we seen any commitment from Airbus for the 389? There is indeed an outside chance that CX would take some. And EK. But with EK, we have to remember that they like to order in numbers that would be large enough to require a large discount to make it work. We're not privy to work out to, but we do know that to make it worth their (Airbus I mean), while, it would very likely have to work out to less of a discount than EK would be interested in. Unless they can find a lot of other customers, this doesn't yet pass the threshold for it being worth A's while

The 389 would be a low cost derivative and should break-even on a relatively small number of frames. The first order from EK might even get there.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): We have to remember that they are also very busy with the 32XNEO, the 359, 35J, and whatever else they want to do with the 330.

The 359 is largely done, 35J is ongoing but will be completed circa 2017ish. The 320Neo program is relatively simple - largely a re-engine. The 330 will go to 242 tonnes some time in 2015 - not too much involved in that one. The 358/330Neo is an unkown at this point in time.

Any 389 program would be late in the decade - I think Airbus could manage it without too much difficulty.


Regards,
StickShaker

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): More or less. The problem the the 388 faces is not the 77X (sure as hell not the 748i), but the 35J.

Indeed, the twins today and in the future are seriously narrowing the cost per seat efficiencies to much smaller aircraft. smaller aircraft, present far less risk during downturns.

With airlines in the past 2-3 years realising that over capacity was one of their biggest problems, they have largely reassessed and adjusted capacity to suit demand recently for more efficient operations.

Lessors are frankly not the biggest fans of the a380 largely because of the risk it poses during downturns and it's niche market (i.e only trunk routes held by very large airlines with large enough pax numbers). With twins being capable of the same range, performance, close enough costs per seat mile, I think the future is a bit limited.

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): Have we seen any commitment from Airbus for the 389? There is indeed an outside chance that CX would take some. And EK

Indeed, barring EK in particular and possibly CX etc... who else based on actual facts is pushing for it's release? Removing sentiments here and talking facts, the A380 is not making money....despite the down turn as some people are claiming, the 330's the 350's, the 787's and 777's are still garnering orders and the a380/747-8 are barely getting any.

I can't think of any business man who wants to spend money to improve a product or make it bigger when the first one hasn't covered it's costs and doesn't seem to be doing so either, not to mention he has other products that are selling very well.

@ the gentleman or lady calling a380 king, thanks for a good laugh, but big does not equal royalty...1464 deliveries over 40+ years and the ability to make the world much smaller by stimulating travel and bring access of travel to the average man earns you a title.....certainly not 101 deliveries over 12 years.

We're mature individuals on this site, drop the sentiments....it makes the discussion that much more fun.

the B7478i is on its way out, the only way it can somehow swim againts the tide of low sales and appeal to airline if it exuberantly come up with an impressive range with zero penalty on pax and cargo loads. Another is the fuel efficiency, the debate on its sales pitch has never been lived up to right? (correct me on this if I got the fuel impression wrong).....

Quoting Darksnowynight (Reply 44): I'm afraid to ask!

Concordeboy I presume....

I don't know if I was the only one to notice this, but there IS a thread on the 777-9X and the A380, and I don't think it's this one, which has 748i in the title.....

not quite sure how the A380 managed to steal the limelight on here.  

Rgds