Hello

Does anybody have any information on further route development by EK at Manchester?

Aircraft upgrades?

Fourth daily flight?

Fifth freedom flights to additional destinations?

Reply 6 in

MAN News 49.. QR 787 Time (by david_itl May 16 2013 in Civil Aviation)

suggests that with pax numbers being the way they are, EK19/20 will go to an A380 and there'll be an EK23/24, so 2x A380/day and 4 daily(?) services.

I presume, should it happen, the 4th service will go at midnight and other timings will be rejigged so there'll be a flight every 6hrs or so.

To my knowledge the plan is for 2x A380 and 2x B77W. I forget the exact timescale, but it was not long.


Dan  

Is MAN operating under a night curfew or could a later flight take off at say 0100 ?


cs

Quoting cornishsimon (Reply 3): Is MAN operating under a night curfew

No. For the most part there have never been scheduled pax flights departing between around 11pm and 6am, but there are a number of charter flights overnight, more often arriving than departing.

What the airport is doing is in this document. There is no curfew, but there are restrictions.

http://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/m...t+Night+Noise+Policy+2012-2017.pdf

EK23/24 is slated to be "shadowing" EK17/18 - the route's following the same kind of strategy that they did at LHR where EK29/30 was the 4th flight

Quoting cornishsimon (Reply 3): Is MAN operating under a night curfew or could a later flight take off at say 0100 ?

Remember, it is about connectivity. If it departed MAN at 1am it'd be scheduled to arrive DXB at around 11am. While there are eastward departures in the 2pm-4pm period, there aren't many. This would give it little connectivity in Dubai. And as it'd likely arrive into MAN around 1130pm, it'd probably depart DXB about 650pm - with this flight not fed by many arrivals in DXB. Note that the 12pm-1259pm inbound bank are primarlily from the east.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 5): EK23/24 is slated to be "shadowing" EK17/18 - the route's following the same kind of strategy that they did at LHR where EK29/30 was the 4th flight

This makes more sense and is logical for a fourth-daily.

===

For your interest, the following shows EK's arrivals and departures in DXB for the w/c 20th May 2013.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 5): EK23/24 is slated to be "shadowing" EK17/18 - the route's following the same kind of strategy that they did at LHR where EK29/30 was the 4th flight

IMO, thats the way to go. Morning bank departures (from DXB) seem to be packed, so another service at that time would make sense.

-CXfirst

Hi

2 A380s and 2 77Ws a day from Manchester? Really? Plus 2 77Ws down the road at Birmingham, not to mention all the flights out of London. Is that really sustainable? I am no expert and of course, do not work for Emirates management but how on earth do they make money on such a route and is that amount of frequency not going into over-kill.

Cheers

 

Quoting britannia25 (Reply 8):

That's the way EK work I guess, everytime I have flown on this route or someone I know who has, every time Y class is almost full. EK will make it work, they know their business.

It is but natural to feel what you thinking but somehow EK make it work all the times.

Quoting britannia25 (Reply 8): 2 A380s and 2 77Ws a day from Manchester? Really? Plus 2 77Ws down the road at Birmingham, not to mention all the flights out of London. Is that really sustainable?

Try 3 77Ws from BHX by then - a third flight will be coming soon. Once the runway extension is complete at least one of those will go to an A388.

The Gulf carriers carry a huge amount of traffic between the Midlands/North West and Pakistan/Bangladesh/India. And that's just one market for them.


Dan  

Think it will remain as it is for the foreseeable future, 2x773 1x380. If they were to introduce a 2nd A380, it would be seasonal and only replace one of the 777's. The high demand isn't all year round as some may think.

On the subject of curfew/restrictions. Airlines are allowed depart/land throughout the night, however between the hours of 2359-0600 (I think) any departures have to pay the airport extra, kind of like a fine, for not departing before midnight. (Mainly due to noise/compensation). There's quite a few airlines who have departures in the middle of the night, TCX to ZTH, KM to MLA, ZB and TOM to IBZ....

Now that QF has teamed up with EK, the Manchester route is the 2nd busiest route for QF behind LHR on EK metal of course to Europe . The QF/EK partnership is going to help Emirates really grow some of these secondary European markets.

[Edited 2013-05-25 03:49:55]

Quoting Daleaholic (Reply 11): On the subject of curfew/restrictions. Airlines are allowed depart/land throughout the night, however between the hours of 2359-0600 (I think) any departures have to pay the airport extra, kind of like a fine, for not departing before midnight. (Mainly due to noise/compensation).

Between 23:30 and 05:59 only stage 3 compliant aircraft are allowed - although that is pretty much anything these days. Aircraft must also not exceed 96 PNdB between 23:00 and 06:59, if they do there is a £750 charge plus £150 for every dB over this limit.


Dan  

Quoting britannia25 (Reply 8): 2 A380s and 2 77Ws a day from Manchester? Really? Plus 2 77Ws down the road at Birmingham, not to mention all the flights out of London. Is that really sustainable? I

You're missing out the Newcastle and Glasgow flights too.

With MAN you also have to consider Qatar and Etihad. BA are missing out on a lot of business because they refuse to develop outside of LHR.

Which flight do we expect to become the second daily A380? I've been on the afternoon flight several times over the past 18 months, which was full on two occasions and 90% full the third.

Quoting Daleaholic (Reply 11): If they were to introduce a 2nd A380, it would be seasonal and only replace one of the 777's. The high demand isn't all year round as some may think.

That's generally not the way that EK does things. They'll either find a way to make it work as an A380 year round or leave it as a 77W.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 14): With MAN you also have to consider Qatar and Etihad. BA are missing out on a lot of business because they refuse to develop outside of LHR.

In the same way QR and EY refuse to develop outside of DOH and AUH. But that's the age old argument.

Does anybody have any idea of when they may introduce these changes?

How does EK support so many seats out of MAN? Is it a large arab population or connections beyond DXB?

There is a huge Indian Sub-Continent and Chinese population in and around MAN plus a large demand for travel to Australia which is where the majority of their passengers are heading to. Cargo is also another good area they tap into well and overall they do very well.

I remember the time when they flew from MAN to DXB twice a week via FRA and ZRH and today they have 3 x daily service. Absolutely phenomenal growth and they know their business, coupled with a big gap by the likes of BA and VS who have written off long haul from MAN.

Quoting magpie75 (Reply 12): The QF/EK partnership is going to help Emirates really grow some of these secondary European markets.

Really grow? So instead of 85% loads, it will be 90%+ loads in some months?!

Quoting Daleaholic (Reply 11): The high demand isn't all year round as some may think.

Normally round Ramadan it tapers off, Affects other airports as well

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 16): In the same way QR and EY refuse to develop outside of DOH and AUH

Not really. So you really see QR wanting to operate out of AUH or DXB (part of the drawback being that they are not part of the UAE) and would Dubai really welcome EY - EY's not got half the network of EK and tends to follow EK's lead in route launches. Whereas as BA had the domestic/Euro routes that any one that possessed a braincell at BA could have tinkered around the long-haul routes that were there at the time. But braincells at BA and operating out of UK regional airports are mutually exclusive concepts

David_itl read my comment again. I was inferring that QR and EY are only interested in DOH and AUH in the same way that BA are on LHR.

As for the EK market ex MAN, there is a large Pakistani, Indian and Chinese market but don't underestimate the disposable income of the white, British population (dispite the northern England stereotype) who like to travel to Asia aswell as our historic links to Oz!

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 21): the EK market ex MAN, there is a large Pakistani, Indian and Chinese market

  

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 21): don't underestimate the disposable income of the white, British population

Oh so true, EK carry a very good number of people to MLE, MRU etc. plus a decent number pay for J.

Another market is the historically strong trade and investment between Manchester and Hong Kong. While going via DXB is a bit of a detour plenty of people do. My mother works for a Manchester-based company with their primary operations in HK/PRC, the UK executives fly EK F from MAN to HKG or PVG.

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 21): our historic links to Oz!

From when I lived near MAN, I got the sense that many passengers were "outbound". As someone said up thread, however, Manchester is the second largest destination in Europe for Australians flying to Europe. That's a pretty incredible statistic (although I 100% believe it) and it shows that there is a large inbound market, as well as outbound.

(for fairness, we should also mention New Zealand as well!)

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 22):

I suspect a significant portion of that traffic from Australia is English ex pats living in Australia not Australian tourists.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 10): Try 3 77Ws from BHX by then - a third flight will be coming soon. Once the runway extension is complete at least one of those will go to an A388.

Excpet growth at Birmingham has not come close to matching growth at MAN, there's little call for a third daily flight let alone an A388. What's the runway extension got to do with it btw? It's not an issue for EK to DXB.

Runway extension has ZERO impact on Emirates' presence at BHX.

Fact is, EK loads on the surface are declining at BHX. Scratch below the surface and the stats suggest Turkish are eating Emirates' lunch when it comes to Business class. How long they can undercut Emirates is anyone's guess. What is undoubted is that TK's success has come at the expense of a third daily EK service and any notion of a new QR route.

Where Manchester differs is in its ability to accomodate EK, QR, EY AND TK successfully and profitably.

BHX has its own market, but anyone who suggests its runway extension is going to open the flood gates to additional and new routes, needs to do some more reserch in to UK passenger flows, trends and demands.

Rgds

[Edited 2013-05-26 10:44:52]

[Edited 2013-05-26 10:45:38]

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 24): Excpet growth at Birmingham has not come close to matching growth at MAN, there's little call for a third daily flight let alone an A388.

In the future they appear to think otherwise. I have no reason to doubt my source for this information.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 24): What's the runway extension got to do with it btw? It's not an issue for EK to DXB.

For the majority of the year no, but there are times when it would be a limiting factor.

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 25): What is undoubted is that TK's success has come at the expense of a third daily EK service and any notion of a new QR route.

The QR route didn't materialise due to aircraft shortage, TK came in at the perfect time really. They may have delayed a third EK frequency, but a daily narrowbody isn't exactly the end of EK's world.

Quoting Blueshamu330s (Reply 25): BHX has its own market, but anyone who suggests its runway extension is going to open the flood gates to additional and new routes, needs tdo some more reserch in to UK passenger flows, trends and demands.

It's not going to be instrumental in gaining any of those, which would almost certainly be operated by 787/A330/A350 type aircraft initially, if/when they occur. But there are larger types which would struggle year round on a 10+ hour route from BHX's current runway. Right now it may be inconceivable that BHX could support a daily 77W to HKG, but look at the latest passenger forecasts for the south east and compare them against available capacity - there isn't enough long term even if we add runways at LHR/LGW. That demand is going to leak somewhere and BHX isn't in a bad place to soak it up.

Admittedly I used to be critical of BHX's extension myself - I'm still unconvinced by many of aspirations attached to it. But having studied the figures in detail, looking long term I can see there is a need and building it during a recession/downturn makes a big saving.


Dan  

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 26): That demand is going to leak somewhere and BHX isn't in a bad place to soak it up.

Perhaps so, if we ignore the tens of thousands of passengers that fly MAN-LHR-HKG. Even VS said there was only (only!) 90,000 passengers who they claim would go on a VS-introduced service and so wouldn't be profitable it they operated daily. What a BA/CX combine would be able to do is another matter... plus CX wasn't expecting to operate daily with abortive HKG-SVO-MAN service that was announced so why VS came out with that is something that may need more elaboration.

BHX is not the saviour for the South East's "aviation crisis". MAN has enough scope to pick up some of the scraps from a shortage of LHR/LGW slots - after all, if we consider LHR/LGW as "London" then MAN is traditionally the 2nd UK point of entry for an airline - it mainly loses out to BHX in securing the (in)direct links to India. If London pax figures generated from the BHX catchment area for these airlines warranted an expansion into the regions, then I'm more than sure BHX could/should have been chosen over MAN. At present, it just looks rather desperate by BHX at the moment - effectively they are saying "Come to us because we're near London you know!" rather than make a cast iron positive spin about the potential traffic in the BHX catchment area that are having to commute to London. Witness MAN - they've spent the last couple of years trying to secure a Chinese link based on the business + VFR links and stating a third of the UK's annual traffic to China came from the MAN catchment area (some 200,000 passengers out of the 600,000 passengers).

Quoting david_itl (Reply 27): BHX is not the saviour for the South East's "aviation crisis". MAN has enough scope to pick up some of the scraps from a shortage of LHR/LGW slots - after all, if we consider LHR/LGW as "London" then MAN is traditionally the 2nd UK point of entry for an airline

So you are suggesting that overspill from the South East will be happy to drive/travel to the North West to fly out of MAN, instead of using the nearer airports with capacity? Sorry, not going to happen. Being a traditional second point of entry is aside of the point, the issue here is that the South East is imminently going to run out of runway capacity. That overcapacity will be soaked up by the nearest available airports with capacity, not those half way up the country.

Quoting david_itl (Reply 27): At present,

Exactly - at present. Aside of Heathrow the South East airports are not yet at capacity, but they will all be by 2030 (High: 2025, low: 2040). Adding runways now will help, but even if they became available today we are still well behind the curve. Birmingham are planning for the future here, not right now.


Dan  

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 26): In the future they appear to think otherwise. I have no reason to doubt my source for this information.

The available facts would seem to contradict him.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 26): I can see there is a need and building it during a recession/downturn makes a big saving.

Major capital investment in a recession generating savings how and when? It's not the same as government spending, this is commercial with a need for some return on investment.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 28): That overcapacity will be soaked up by the nearest available airports with capacity, not those half way up the country.

This is a classic mistake I think. I cannot think of many airlines operating out of BHX because LHR is denied to them. Indeed I can only think of two long haul carriers still at LGW for the same reason (Air China and Vietnam, as Korean Air are not coming back!). What has happened is, and will continue to do so, is they use an offshore alliance hub like FRA for STAR and AMS/CDG for Skyteam. Let's be clear, one thing HS2 will do is make LHR closer to Birmingham, it will not help BHX in the way they hope.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 28): Exactly - at present. Aside of Heathrow the South East airports are not yet at capacity, but they will all be by 2030 (High: 2025, low: 2040). Adding runways now will help, but even if they became available today we are still well behind the curve. Birmingham are planning for the future here, not right now.

Personally I remain dubious of the growth projections and forecasts.
They have always been overly optimistic !

It is true the South East (Well LHR only) is effectively at capacity however the other terminals are a long way from full.

As for Birmingham I say what I always say because its true they need to develop an effective EUROPEAN network serving their local catchment and thats tourism and business to business connections for the many thousands of small to medium enterprises plus the motor industry and their suppliers within the EU.

As for Long Haul those that can't get into London in future will go elsewhere (Mainland European Hubs and the like of Dusseldorf, Barcelona, Geneva and Milan ) before looking at Birmingham and even Manchester - that's the facts right now and it will remain so.

The loss WILL be UK PLC but that's where we are headed.

As for Manchester's Chinese aspirations much is down to current bilateral AND government Visa restrictions deterring the mainland carriers. They are prioritising European expansion on the mainland.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 29): The available facts would seem to contradict him.

I would disagree. Yes TK entering the route with aggressive pricing has had an impact, but not that significantly. Put it this way, they have been bang on with everything else, so I'm going with it.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 29): Major capital investment in a recession generating savings how and when?

Most construction costs are linked to demand, when demand drops so do costs. A construction industry in recession can lead to some very significant savings on a contract/project. Last one I dealt with was ~15% cheaper to construct in 2012 than initially spec'd pre-crash - ironic, considering it was the crash which halted the build. Some plant costs for instance have dropped by as much as 70% and it's now an employers market for labor, this more than offsets inflation elsewhere.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 29): What has happened is, and will continue to do so, is they use an offshore alliance hub like FRA for STAR and AMS/CDG for Skyteam.

I'm talking about capacity in general spilling out of the South East here, not exclusively about that generating long haul services. As the saying goes, you can't get a quart into a pint pot, be the passenger flying to a beach in Egypt or to a conference in Shanghai.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 29): Let's be clear, one thing HS2 will do is make LHR closer to Birmingham, it will not help BHX in the way they hope.

There is a fundamental flaw in making an airport already operating at capacity accessible to more people - unless major expansion is foreseeable. Now I don't see BHX benefiting from HS2 either, but drawing more passenger journeys into the South East is not sustainable - it will end up displacing capacity out to other airports, one of which includes BHX.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 30): It is true the South East (Well LHR only) is effectively at capacity however the other terminals are a long way from full.

The problem is runway capacity - I'm not sure if you are referring to a terminal as in an airport or the building itself?

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 30): The loss WILL be UK PLC but that's where we are headed.

I'll reserve judgement until the Airports Commission report in full. My opinion is that it's a vehicle for a pre-conceived political plan to be executed, which one though remains to be seen.


Dan  

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 31): The problem is runway capacity

No the problem is a lack of hub capacity at Heathrow, there is a fair bit of runway capacity lying empty at STN, SEN and LCY off peak, even LGW is dead at times.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 31): but drawing more passenger journeys into the South East is not sustainable -

What does that even mean? Not sustainable in what term? Ten years? Twenty? A hundred? People fly to where they want to go to, London is one of the three major "world" cities and benefits from a massive inbound tourist demand and entrenched business. At first principles that demand needs to be met otherwise all those debts that our forefathers ran up will never be paid off. Ever. The country is in a frightening position finanacially and unless we can the maximum bang for our buck, our children will be worse off then our parents were.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 31): My opinion is that it's a vehicle for a pre-conceived political plan to be executed, which one though remains to be seen.

Well you're right, it's Heathrow, it always is. Anyone who takes a long hard cold lool knows this. The last government even gave it the go ahead until "call me Dave" assumed there would be a better way. Well they've had a long look and now they know there isn't. The politics of marginals in West London rule the roost here and to Hell with the economic strategy for jobs and investment.

BHX also remains sandwiched between five A380s a day at LHR and very strong spoke of three per day at Manchester. MAN will go twice daily A388 before much longer but I suspect BHX will plateau, as United have already discovered, at current levels.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 32): No the problem is a lack of hub capacity at Heathrow, there is a fair bit of runway capacity lying empty at STN, SEN and LCY off peak, even LGW is dead at times.

STN yes, SEN would have to chuck the GA out and/or apply for a higher movements cap, LTN will have a bit more with the infrastructure alterations, and to some extent LCY has capacity, but is very type limited. But LGW, no, I can't think of any sensible times of the day that it's dead, give it five years (if that) and it'll be at full capacity.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 32): What does that even mean?

You can't keep on pouring water into a jug that's full. Demand from the South East will exceed capacity in the South East, adding more capacity from other regions is not sustainable, you want to be stemming it if anything.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 32): People fly to where they want to go to

Which is my point. If you want to access the Midlands, fly to BHX. Encouraging people to use LHR to access Birmingham and the like by HS2 is not a sustainable or sensible approach.


Dan  

Manchester is supporting the current 3x daily EK services with just traffic from it's own region, and very much the same can be said for services out of Birmingham, I think it would be stupid to say these are supported from overspill traffic from the South East... Its possible passengers who live between London/Birmingham and Birmingham/Manchester might switch and choose a flight based upon timings or cost.

As well as Heathrow's four daily A380's with EK to DXB, LGW also has three daily flights with 2x 77W and 1x A380 too. While Gatwick is busy, EK could easily get a fourth daily slot there.

Going back to the Manchester discussion, I would imagine a second daily A380 will be added to one of the existing 77W routes before a fourth rotation is added. But upgrading the aircraft is only going to be adding an additional 80 odd seats of extra capacity, which will probably buy the airline an additional 6-12 months of time, before they need to add that fourth service.

Seeing as we will soon be going into peak travel season here in the UK, and the summer schedules by now should be finalised, I doubt we will see any extra capacity added to MAN until next year now.

What type of 77W config aircraft does EK use on their MAN routes? I know the BHX routes are the very high density 442 seat config type with no First product.

It was mentioned passenger numbers are down on the BHX-DXB route, but in latest March 2013 figures, they are 45282, which is only down 0.5% on the same period last year, and that is still averaging a load of over 380 passengers per flight!

Once the runway extension is completed at BHX, I don't think it will be long before the A380 is introduced by EK. I understand Cargo is very strong on the route too, which would also benefit, from the capacity increase. But I think this will be the one of the only routes to benefit from the runway extension.

Even though the 787's will soon be appearing thick and fast at Qatar Airways, there still no news of if/when the new BHX-DOH service will start. I contacted QR on this subject earlier this month and got this reply:

Dear Mr. Davies,

Thank you for your e-mail dated 7th May 2013.

We regret to inform you that we are unable to advise you of a date when we expect to start services to/from Birmingham.

Once it is known when we shall be starting services to/from any destination, Qatar Airways will be pleased to announced this through the various communication channels.

We look forward to another opportunity of welcoming you on our services in the near future.

Yours truly,

Ali N. Alharazi
Senior Officer Customer Care

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): I think it would be stupid to say these are supported from overspill traffic from the South East...

Overspill is going to happen in the future, so you may as well get used to it.

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): Once the runway extension is completed at BHX, I don't think it will be long before the A380 is introduced by EK. I understand Cargo is very strong on the route too, which would also benefit, from the capacity increase. But I think this will be the one of the only routes to benefit from the runway extension.

It wouldn't, as the A388 carries less cargo than the 77W.


Dan  

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): As well as Heathrow's four daily A380's with EK to DXB, LGW also has three daily flights with 2x 77W and 1x A380 too. While Gatwick is busy, EK could easily get a fourth daily slot there.

LHR is 5 A380s (plus the 2 daily QF A380s), while LGW is 3 77Ws. I imagine LHR will grow once BA returns their leased QF slots (2 pairs), while LGW will get A380s before a fourth daily flight is added.

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): Seeing as we will soon be going into peak travel season here in the UK, and the summer schedules by now should be finalised, I doubt we will see any extra capacity added to MAN until next year now.

I tend to agree, though the existing flight was started in September. EK doesn't really do summer/winter schedules, so will add flights when they have the planes available to do so.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 36): LHR is 5 A380s (plus the 2 daily QF A380s), while LGW is 3 77Ws. I imagine LHR will grow once BA returns their leased QF slots (2 pairs), while LGW will get A380s before a fourth daily flight is added.

How many daily flights are there in the LON-UAE route? I am getting

LHR-DXB

5 EK A380
2 QF A380
1 BA B777
1 BA B747
1 VS A340
1 BI B777

LGW-DXB

3 EK B777

LHR-AUH

2 EY B777
1 EY A340
1 BA B777

So Emirates+QF alone are putting 489x5 + 484x2 + 364x3 = 4,505 seats in each direction every day. 3.288 million seats per year? Am I right? I wonder how long will take DXB to overtake JFK as the first international route from LHR with the new QF services and the 5th EK A380.

[Edited 2013-05-26 20:27:33]

Quoting nickofatlanta (Reply 23): I suspect a significant portion of that traffic from Australia is English ex pats living in Australia

No doubt, but it is still a decent number of people flying from Australia to Manchester regardless of the reason that they're going.

Similarly the third largest destination is ATH. That is undoubtedly due to the massive Greek diaspora here rather than because lots of Australian tourists want to see the Acropolis or lie on a beach in Crete.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 36): LGW will get A380s

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 37): So Emirates+QF alone are putting 489x5 + 484x2 + 364x3 = 4,505 seats in each direction every day

This is a rumour, so take it for what it's worth, but I've heard that LGW could have an A380 by year end.

Does LGW have an A380 capable gate? If not then I guess that puts the rumour to bed.

[Edited 2013-05-26 21:17:47]

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): Manchester is supporting the current 3x daily EK services with just traffic from it's own region,

Many parts of Yorkshire are served by EK at MAN, not just it's own 'North West' region.

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): Going back to the Manchester discussion, I would imagine a second daily A380 will be added to one of the existing 77W routes before a fourth rotation is added. But upgrading the aircraft is only going to be adding an additional 80 odd seats of extra capacity

Hmmm, surely it depends of F & J demand? Upgrading EK19/20 to an A388 gives a noteable increase in F & J capacity (in percentage terms). IF the demand is more Y-led then surely it would make more sense to add a fourth flight (2 class A332) rather than sending a second A388.

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): What type of 77W config aircraft does EK use on their MAN routes? I know the BHX routes are the very high density 442 seat config type with no First product.

First is available on all the MAN services. It's also available on GLA which is more of a surprise given that was started a bit after BHX,.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 33): Which is my point. If you want to access the Midlands, fly to BHX. Encouraging people to use LHR to access Birmingham and the like by HS2 is not a sustainable or sensible approach.

No but using a hub is "profitable" which beats sustainable. If you want sustainable, subsidise it rather than TAX it to death.

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 34): As well as Heathrow's four daily A380's with EK to DXB

Five daily, EK008 / 002 / 030 / 004 / 006.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 35): Overspill is going to happen in the future, so you may as well get used to it.

Funny how many years they've been saying that, I work as marketing analyst and that theory is just bunkum in this situation, it really, really is.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 38): Does LGW have an A380 capable gate? If not then I guess that puts the rumour to bed.

Gate 110 was re-profiled at frankly eye watering expense to take the A388. Emirates had a test run recently and the Lufthansa A380 was parked on it yesterday.

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 41): Overspill is going to happen in the future, so you may as well get used to it. Funny how many years they've been saying that, I work as marketing analyst and that theory is just bunkum in this situation, it really, really is.

Agreed in every respect.

The pressures at LHR will result in up-gauging and for the incumbent carriers can only lead to increased yield as fares can only increase as demand is rationed by available supply !

BA know this very well !

Again the regional airports specifically BHX needs to strengthen those European routes to Hubs and secondary airports because that's still where you will be connecting to your Far Eastern Flight if Emirates doesn't appeal.

Plymouth man very few South of Banbury will choose BHX over LHR or even LTN and west of Stour Bristol has some appeal especially for the price conscious with EZY and RYR.

North well say no more.

Geography is BHX's achilles heal.

[Edited 2013-05-27 05:48:19]

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 39): Hmmm, surely it depends of F & J demand? Upgrading EK19/20 to an A388 gives a noteable increase in F & J capacity (in percentage terms). IF the demand is more Y-led then surely it would make more sense to add a fourth flight (2 class A332) rather than sending a second A388.

Having recently flown out of MAN on the EK A380 in F I can say that this flight was very light in F (3pax / 14 seats) but almost full in J & Y. Granted that was just the flight I was on but I understand its quite typical. EK have said they'll fly a 2-class A388 so perhaps this is the type of demand they mean?

MAN pulls pax from across the Northwest which is some 8million people. Given there will be some feed from the south (let's say a catchment area of 4 million more) then that is a healthy market with no real competition to the UAE. Ok so Qatar but EK is dominant.

EK First Class MAN-JNB, CPT-GLA (by sandyb123 May 18 2013 in Trip Reports)

Sandyb123

[Edited 2013-05-27 06:00:34]

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 41): Funny how many years they've been saying that, I work as marketing analyst and that theory is just bunkum in this situation, it really, really is.

I respectfully disagree, personally and professionally.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 42): The pressures at LHR will result in up-gauging and for the incumbent carriers can only lead to increased yield as fares can only increase as supply is rationed by demand !

And increased fares will lead to more price sensitive passengers using airports outside of the South East.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 42): very few South of Banbury will choose BHX over LHR or even LTN and west of Stour Bristol has some appeal especially for the price conscious with EZY and RYR.

Just to clarify again, I am not talking exclusively about BHX benefiting from overspill. But in terms of your example I think you are forgetting Oxford. By public transport it is significantly easier and quicker to reach BHX than LHR or LTN, by road there is around ten minutes difference - travel habits do reflect this.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 42): Geography is BHX's achilles heal.

I would say perception is actually.


Dan  

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 44): Just to clarify again, I am not talking exclusively about BHX benefiting from overspill. But in terms of your example I think you are forgetting Oxford. By public transport it is significantly easier and quicker to reach BHX than LHR or LTN, by road there is around ten minutes difference - travel habits do reflect this.

Seriously !

You know how often the Oxford Tube Bus service operates 24/7, have you seen the cars including mine at times under the bridge at the Watlington junction near Calk cutting on the M42.

There also buses that go through to Gatwick hourly and I would suggest unless you live in Blackbird Leys driving your 4X4 or BMW (Drug dealers excluded) through Thame and Aylesbury to Luton is hardly a hardship !

Yes I know Oxford VERY WELL - lived there in formative years !

[Edited 2013-05-27 06:27:37]

EK upgraded the evening service to a three class 77W with F due to the continuing demand.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 45): You know how often the Oxford Tube Bus service operates 24/7,

Yes, as a matter of fact I use it often, but how is this relevant to reaching LHR from Oxford? The Tube serves London itself, and even though the frequency and WiFi are good it's still a bit arduous to connect on to LCY that way, although I have done it a few times.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 45): There also buses that go through to Gatwick hourly

And takes what is it, 2 hours at best? Last time I did this it was around 2h 20 minutes during late morning at the weekend. Yes, that really beats one hour on the train to BHX. It wasn't any cheaper by coach either - £36 return IIRC compared to £33 by train for open returns bought on the day, although this was last year. And I can't count the number of times I've done Oxford-Luton/Stansted by coach, it is a slow and tedious trip.

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 45): Yes I know Oxford VERY WELL - lived there in formative years !

Likewise, my partner is from the vicinity. BHX is a very attractive option for travel to/from the Oxford area, and it's not even marketed that well.


Dan  

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 44): And increased fares will lead to more price sensitive passengers using airports outside of the South East.

Agreed on this point yet most of that price sensitive traffic is likely to be short/medium haul rather than long haul.

We constantly have these debates and the implication is growth will be long haul -Well I am not convinced.

You might think I have an bias against Birmingham well that's not the case.

All i stress is that the BHX (Also MAG Group) management stop daydreaming and focus - Foremost in serving their locality and catchment stakeholders and providing profits to their shareholders.

Quoting GT4EZY (Reply 16): In the same way QR and EY refuse to develop outside of DOH and AUH

When did they refuse that?   Besides those countries are a lot smaller than the UK, and a have a significantly smaller population. Not to mention only the one airport that I know about.