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a380heavy
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Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:37 pm

Having achieved such woeful sales on the 748i and although better, but still not sparkling sales on the 748f does Boeing rue the day it decided to do such an extensive update to their legendary 'Jumbo Jet'?

Before I get shot down in flames, I am an aviation enthusiast and not just an A or B fanatic - despite my username!

Couldn't updated engines and maybe a tweaked winglet design been sufficient to attract similar levels of sales, without the huge expense of a complete wing re-design etc.

Although I believe, with it's troubles behind it, the 787 will prove to be a real asset to the airlines, the cost of those troubles together with lacklustre '47 sales must be really hurting Boeing.

Your thoughts ladies and gentlemen please.

A380Heavy
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:56 pm

I expect Boeing doesn't regret offering the 747-8, but they probably regret pulling resources from it to get the 787 back on track as that required them to spend more money on contract engineers from Japan to get the plane done and delayed it's EIS, allowing the 777-300ER to secure more of the 747-400 replacement market.

Two years ago, I also would say Boeing regretted having the Moscow Design Center work on the plane as I have heard that the structures they designed were overly heavy and some re-design was necessary, but considering that Boeing was able to not-insignificantly increase the design weights of the plane thanks to the overall airframe being so robust, that probably ended up being a good thing - especially now as Boeing has been able to (effectively) get the empty weight down.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:03 pm

In retrospect it is difficult to make a case for the 748. Maybe new engines for an F.
 
747-600X
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:36 am

Recall that originally, Boeing wanted the -8I to be shorter than the final version (shorter than the -8F), scarcely larger than the -400. This is surprising. I would have thought a product better suited to competing with the A380 and less subject to internal undermining from the 77W would have made more sense, perhaps such as by stretching the upper deck even further to make the airplane less like the 77W and more worthy of 4 engines.
 
cornutt
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:46 am

"Rue the day" is a bit strong, but I'll bet people within Boeing are wondering why they allowed themselves to get off-message with the 748. Boeing's projections back at the time that the A380 was first being talked about was that there was barely enough of a market for one aircraft of that size, much less two. Boeing's marketing gurus at the time were saying that the future, except for a handful of routes in Europe, was in long-thin routes and the 777-size aircraft was the right size for it. The 748 program always felt like a bit of a panic move. At least with regard to pax routes, it looks like their original projections were right.
 
RickNRoll
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:03 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Two years ago, I also would say Boeing regretted having the Moscow Design Center work on the plane as I have heard that the structures they designed were overly heavy and some re-design was necessary, but considering that Boeing was able to not-insignificantly increase the design weights of the plane thanks to the overall airframe being so robust, that probably ended up being a good thing - especially now as Boeing has been able to (effectively) get the empty weight down.

They also designed a wing with a flutter problem. There is a hardware 'patch', but it's not really desirable.
 
cmf
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:57 am

Quoting a380heavy (Thread starter):
does Boeing rue the day it decided to do such an extensive update to their legendary 'Jumbo Jet'?

Don't think so. To the best of my knowledge they did their homework and made the decision based on the information they had at the time. Sometimes it works out the way you hope and sometimes it doesn't. Most of the time it is somewhere between and most of the time that is plenty fine.

What isn't fine is fearing failure so much you don't try things. That is a safe way to a slow death.
 
na
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:24 am

Frankly, no.

Granted, Boeing must be surely disappointed by the lack of sales for the passenger version, a problem made worse by the crisis on the freighter market. But the business model for the 748 centered around the freighter from the outset, and the 748I was seen as the secondary model from its conception. As there is no competition far and wide a rebound on the freighter market should make Boeing happy. Whatever the fate of the 748I I expect the 748F to be produced until the mid- or even late 2020s, maybe only at a rate of one plane per month then.

If Boeing should regret something its the fact that the 748 program start was at least 3 years late and that it was developed too slow because workforce had to be shifted to the Nightmareliner next door. The 748 should have been in service by 2008 or 2009 the latest. And they should regret that they made the 77W a bit too big so it practically became the cannibal in the family. With the 777-9X completely killing the 748I in about 8 years time (as sales go probably earlier) Boeing surrenders the passenger VLA market completely to Airbus.
 
ZWTwinOtter
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:46 am

Quoting a380heavy (Thread starter):
Your thoughts ladies and gentlemen please.

Seems to me it's all about making money. If you build a new A380 and a new frame B747X then you will surely both both lose (only so many LHR-DXB markets to go around). If you build a 777-300, 777X, and a 787, you will make money long-term and have aircraft for all routes when you include the 747-8. B adopted a less flashy, more economic approach in my view.

So I wouldn't rue the day. Only, maybe a little bit, wonder why Airbus got the jump on me with 380 - but would be happy where I stood today.
 
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PM
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:46 am

I assume that had Boeing known "then" (whenever "then" was) what they know now, they wouldn't have done the 748. It's hard to to believe that the capital and resources put into it wouldn't have been better employed elsewhere.

But it's easy to be wise with hindsight.

Personally, living in Bangalore and not owning Boeing stock, I'm rather glad they did do it!  
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:50 am

IMO,

The fact that the 747 exists, keeps a lid on the profitability of the 380 for Airbus.

This means less money available to compete with Boeing products.

Although sales are slow at the moment, I would expect sales of the freighter to trickle in at an increasing but low level as the world economy slowly improves. The 777x and the 350-1000, with seat costs in the same ball park as the VLA's, will ensure neither the 747 or 380 are a rip roaring success, but I doubt they Rue the Day.

Ruscoe
 
jfk777
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:03 pm

Being the third generation 747 Boeing's expectaions had to be small. But then what was the R & D cost ? Probably not much, The GE x engines were developed for the 787, the raked wings were developed for the 777-300ER and the interiors are very 787. Streching the planes is a small cost too. Sure the sales have been smaller then expected but then Boeing had to expect that with the 777 selling so well.
 
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PM
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:32 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 12):
The fact that the 747 exists, keeps a lid on the profitability of the 380 for Airbus.

This means less money available to compete with Boeing products.

Maybe. But they paid a hell of a price themselves to stop Airbus putting more $$$ in their pocket.
 
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PM
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:39 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Being the third generation 747 Boeing's expectaions had to be small.

  Really? The MAX is the third generation of the 737. Are Boeing not expecting much of that?
 
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FlyPIJets
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:58 pm

Boeing hasn't ceased offering the 747-8, have they?

They have (had), what, around ~40 orders for the -8 with 19 being pax. Not a great success. But now that the aircraft is designed and on the market, no matter if they sell it or not, it should put downward pressure on pricing for the A380. And there should be some orders out there by airlines that really can't use an aircraft the size of the A380.

With around a 100 passenger difference, and an even bigger A380 on the way (right?), my guess would be that airlines that need a VLA would choose the A380. But, now that the 747-8 is out there, I wouldn't pull it off the market.

It is still a worthy freighter.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 12:59 pm

The truth is Boeing killed the 747 program with the 777.

As soon as airlines realized they could fly almost the same amount of passengers with 2 engines, they ran.

Look at the ramp at JFK 20 years ago...all 747s. Look at it today, all 777s or 330s/340s, with few 747s.

They made the 747 a specialty airplane for long haul routes with heavy traffic NYC-Asia comes to mind.

Then that specialty market was replaced by a new jumbo: the 380. The 748 is a day late and a dollar short. The market isn't there for 2. Ironically, Boeing is the company that created that situation.
 
astuteman
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:19 pm

Quoting cornutt (Reply 4):
I'll bet people within Boeing are wondering why they allowed themselves to get off-message with the 748.

I can't help but wonder if, when the 748 was launched, Boeing thought the A380 was going to tank, being "way late, way overweight and way out of spec performance) and took a bit of a punt on that.

Then Airbus managed to pull the A380's performance out of the fire.

dunno.

Rgds
 
parapente
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:36 pm

Life would be easy if we had 100% hindsight!
I do recall raising my eyebrows when (during the which length should it be- very public- debate) they said (and they did. The first major airline that orders it will decide. Now that did sound rather desperate to me. You don't do marketing like that!

Even though (at the time) the 773er had only just come out one can't help but feel that the 777x-9 would have been the way to go. They had/have the carbon wing technology and the "new" engine is a 'simple' advance on the existing one. But I can imagine they felt that to announce such an aircraft (then) would have eaten into the potential sales of the new 773er. No easy choices really.

Whats done is done.They do - as has been said - have a superb cargo plane which will go on for many a year (and it killed the 380F) which has hurt AB's profitability for that aircraft.

It's not as if the 380 is doing that well is it? They will ,I feel, get the 380 to B/E and beyond but most will be via one airlines so margins will be much lower than they planned for.
 
TomFoolery
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Two years ago, I also would say Boeing regretted having the Moscow Design Center work on the plane as I have heard that the structures they designed were overly heavy and some re-design was necessary, but considering that Boeing was able to not-insignificantly increase the design weights of the plane thanks to the overall airframe being so robust, that probably ended up being a good thing - especially now as Boeing has been able to (effectively) get the empty weight down.

It is fairly common to design to requirements, then build and test the component. Once completed, a manager will walk into the office throw his/her arms into the air and announce that the weight must be reduced by 10%. No, not really like that. But...initial production is carefully analyzed to see where excess strength (read: excess weight), unnecessary precision, functional issues can be reduced. This often requires re-design work in part, or in whole.

Everything from control surfaces to window shades go through this.

There was a crowded market for existing large aircraft, including A380 and B773, and even the B744. Boeing was competing with its own product in some cases. Where the Asian market had need, the 747-8 was a little bit late to the party. Looking at the North American market, there are very few jumbos in use. UA, DL and that is about it. It is remarkable how long it took 773 to enter the US market. I think the 747-8 will see even more difficulty for now.

If Boeing can hold out for an economic turn, I am sure things will look up. I do not see this happening for at least 2 years. The European recession will have a tremendous effect on the global economy for some time.
 
virtual
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:41 pm

Is Lufthansa the only airline to have ordered the 748i so far? Any others on the cards?

It seems to me that Boeing have effectively handed the market (for aircraft larger than 777W) to Airbus.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:46 pm

At least this it is keeping the beautiful 747 in the skies for a longer time...

The 340 wasn't such a loss, because it shared the development with the 330. The same happens to the 748I.



David
 
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afterburner33
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:53 pm

Quoting virtual (Reply 21):
Is Lufthansa the only airline to have ordered the 748i so far? Any others on the cards?

It seems to me that Boeing have effectively handed the market (for aircraft larger than 777W) to Airbus.

Korean Air have also ordered them, along with Air China. Arik potentially had an order of 2 - I'm not sure what's up with that one. Transaero also have an unconfirmed order.

It's interesting that the 2 largest customers (KE and LH) also operate the A380.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:01 pm

Well the same could be said about the A380. It's hasn't been a roaring success either. Even though several airlines have ordered it, They haven't ordered them in overwhelming number with the exception of Emirates, which is really nothing more than an airline pyramid scheme. Theyre just buying up all the slots they can on the Airbus floor, spening money like there's no tomorrow. A few airlines have order 5 here, 10 there maybe, but not a floodgate of orders, and nothing close to what the 747 family got when it was in full swing. The freighter version is selling well, whereas the A380 Freighter was shelved. So it's a matter of perspective when you look at the big picture. If you take a tour of the Boeing factory, there were several in final assembly when I took the tour recently.
 
astuteman
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:16 pm

Quoting na (Reply 7):
But the business model for the 748 centered around the freighter from the outset, and the 748I was seen as the secondary model from its conception

I'm sorry, na, but that's not correct. At launch Boeing stated that 2/3 of 748 sales would be Intercontinentals

FWIW I think Boeing thought the A380 was about to tank through a combination of delays, overweight, and missed performance, and decided there was an opportunity to cause the fatal wound.

But Airbus pulled the performance out of the bag.

I have been told (which is not the same as a fact of course) that the Boeing team were gutted as news of the A380's test flight data filtered in to them, because it did what it said on the tin, despite the overweight.

Rgds
 
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scbriml
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 7:16 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 12):
The fact that the 747 exists, keeps a lid on the profitability of the 380 for Airbus.

But at a big cost to Boeing. I'd be surprised if any downward price pressure the 748I puts on the A380 is greater than the cost (loss remember) to Boeing. Additionally, every 748F order would most likely have been a 744ERF order if the 748 hadn't been launched.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 8:01 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 5):
They also designed a wing with a flutter problem. There is a hardware 'patch', but it's not really desirable.

Was the wing re-profiling done at the MDC?



Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 12):
The fact that the 747 exists, keeps a lid on the profitability of the 380 for Airbus.

I've heard that claim made a number of times by a number of posters, but considering Boeing themselves have refused to sell the 747-8 to at least a few carriers based on that carrier's offer, even if Airbus is not able to charge list for an A380-800 due to the 747-8 being present, Airbus appears to not have to go to extraordinary discounts in order to sell A380s because Boeing will not go to extraordinary discounts to sell 747s.



Quoting PM (Reply 14):
Maybe. But they paid a hell of a price themselves to stop Airbus putting more $$$ in their pocket.

  
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:59 pm

Quoting virtual (Reply 21):
Is Lufthansa the only airline to have ordered the 748i so far? Any others on the cards?

Korean Airlines has ordered 5, Air China has ordered 5 (with 2 more agreed to in March though not yet firmed) and Arik Air has 2 on order. There are also 9 VIP planes on order (though one is now technically a white tail). Transaero signed an MoU for 4 in 2011, but it has yet to be turned into a firm order.

In June of 2012 Boeing stated they had 30 747-8 orders and commitments that they were in the process of firming. 5 of those were likely Air China (firmed on 06 September 2012), 4 were probably the Transaero MoU and 15 likely were meant for Hong Kong Airlines, who is believed to have signed an MoU at Paris 2011.



Quoting na (Reply 7):
But the business model for the 748 centered around the freighter from the outset, and the 748I was seen as the secondary model from its conception.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 25):
I'm sorry, na, but that's not correct. At launch Boeing stated that 2/3 of 748 sales would be Intercontinentals

While it is true that at launch Boeing expected the 747-8 to be the main one, they quickly saw the lack of interest and effectively put the model on hold for a time to try and secure more orders before formally moving forward with bringing the model to production.



Quoting astuteman (Reply 25):
FWIW I think Boeing thought the A380 was about to tank through a combination of delays, overweight, and missed performance, and decided there was an opportunity to cause the fatal wound.

If Boeing's board honestly believed that, they should all be removed for gross stupidity.
 
QANTASvJet
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:08 pm

Of course - just as Airbus rues the day it launched the A380. They should both have bought an elementary text on game theory, for a few dollars or euros. Would have saved them billions. Now, where's that shoe-horn, so i can get into one of those skinny-little seats at the back of a 777-9X
 
Flaps
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:10 pm

No, I don't think they regret it all. In fact they are probably patting themselves on the back for not going with an all new design aka the 380. Boeing knew the market wasn't big enough for one player let alone two. Can you imagine the flow of red ink that would have flooded both manufacturers with two new designs competing against each other AND the big twins? As it is, neither A nor B will profit from this segment but the losses for each will both be much smaller than if Boeing had decided to compete with a new design.
 
brilondon
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:25 pm

I doubt that the guys in Chicago are going to say publicly whether they made a mistake but on the scale of this aircraft program, a mistake like you are suggesting is not going to happen. We have to remember that the B747 program is over 50 years old and have over several hundred copies flying around the earth every day. If you are trying to incite an A v. B thread, the rules really should be followed and ban this topic from going further.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Tue Jun 04, 2013 11:27 pm

Quoting Flaps (Reply 30):
In fact they are probably patting themselves on the back for not going with an all new design aka the 380.

Considering Boeing's considerable experience with the 747, I've always wondered if they had launched the NLA (New Large Airliner) based on the MD-12 concept, would airlines - especially those who operated the 747-400 - have felt more comfortable choosing the NLA over the A3XX / A380...   
 
mrcomet
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:31 am

I wouldn't write off the 748 yet. Many new planes have not sold we'll. The lack of sales will drive the price down and the quicker availability may make some people buy it if the market heats up. As they tweak it, they may find it establishes a strong mission segment. In the end, with fuel prices staying high forever, and cheaper sales prices, it will make a compelling case for cargo sales. I suspect it will always be a slow seller but it may be a reliable one. Had they not built it, they would have ceded a large part of the market to airbus for decades. Here at least they have a product that can be steadily improved and maybe yet still establish itself.
 
sweair
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:53 am

There will probably be a need of a VLA freighter and nose loaded at that. But the passenger version is as good as dead.

I can actually see the worlds military forces using 748Fs instead of dedicated expensive airlift in the future. Ok for outsized stuff there is no other option but for troops and other cargo a civilian freighter might do just as good and certainly cheaper. You can haul 100t very far and very fast with a 748F.
 
AADC10
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:12 am

At the moment, the 748 appears to be a mistake. It was thought of as a way to keep the 747 production line running and attract some 744 customers that might have otherwise bought an A380. However the world is still recovering from the 2008 banking collapse and airlines have chosen to go with smaller twin engine widebodies. The day for larger aircraft may arrive when air traffic returns to late 1990s levels but by the time that happens, the day of the 747 will be mostly over and many airlines probably realize this. Considering Boeing's own projections when trash talking the A380, it seems like they knew it too but I guess the bean counters thought they could sell enough to turn a profit.

The 748 will ensure that it will be the next VC-XX Air Force One. I doubt the Air Force would be comfortable depending upon a twin engine aircraft and the USA would never order an Airbus for the President.
 
glbltrvlr
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 1:15 pm

AFAIK, the 748 has been cash flow positive from the first delivered frame and won't take many sales to recoup the design investment, so the only drawback to having it is the opportunity cost of having engineering resources working on it when they could have been doing something else.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 2:54 pm

I think both Boeing and Airbus rue their particular VLA investments. There is not anything close to the projected market for either the A380 or the 747. The sad thing is that Boeing knew this, said this, and still gave in to their fears. The investment they made there might have been a real big benefit to the 787 program.

I think its a little less painful for Airbus - Launch Aid, nothing better to do, and the prestige of the project counter-balances the lack of commercial success. At the end of the day, it looks like they are playing DC-10, the the 748i's L-1011.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 3:01 pm

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 36):
AFAIK, the 748 has been cash flow positive from the first delivered frame and won't take many sales to recoup the design investment, so the only drawback to having it is the opportunity cost of having engineering resources working on it when they could have been doing something else.

I cannot speak as to the profit or loss on each delivery, but per Boeing's financial statements, the 747-8 program has been - and remains in - a forward loss position since the program launched. They took a $1 billion charge against earnings in Q3 2010 due to higher-than-planned production costs and the requirement to keep the production rate at 1.5 frames per month (as opposed to the planned 2) due to lack of orders.

With Boeing looking to have to reduce the production rate back to 1.5 per month, that is going to increase the production costs by hundreds of millions of dollars per year.
 
ckfred
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 6:14 pm

There was an article somewhere that LH was the driving force behind the current size and range of the 747-8. Emirates wanted a plane that was smaller than the 747-8, but a little larger than the 747-400, with an increase in range. They needed a plane that was smaller than the A380, but with a very long range.

One can argue that in restrospect, Boeing might have been better off giving EK what it wanted, rather than LH.

We all know that a widebody with very long range can be flown with two engines. Between reliability, fuel consumption, and thrust ratings, the major engine manufacturers can build engines that are far superior to the original widebody engines (JT9D, CF6, and RB211) and can easily handle the needs of most widebodies with only 2 units.

The question is whether there are enough routes in the world that need a plane that is the size of a 747-400 or larger, but not as much size as the A380.

Back in the days of regulation and bi-lateral treaties, you had 747s flying between major cities. Passengers then had to connect. While the alliances certainly focus on flying to hubs, you didn't have widebodies flying to Europe or Asia from DFW, ORD, DTW, MSP, PHL, ATL, CLT, and IAH to the extent 40 years ago that they do now.

By the same token, most service to the UK was via LHR or LGW. No one flew from the U.S. to Manchester. Service to West Germany was almost all focused on FRA. Now, you can fly to DUS, MUC, and Berlin.

You almost wonder if the market for very large, 4 engine aircraft isn't large enough for 2 manufacturers, particularly in passenger aircraft.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:33 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 39):
One can argue that in restrospect, Boeing might have been better off giving EK what it wanted, rather than LH.

I am 200% convinced Tim Clark and EK were never serious about a 747-8. He knew that Airbus was consistently improving the performance of the A380 and that it would grow in MTOW to give him the range he needed to reach SFO, LAX and IAH with a full payload. Note that with the MTOW boost, the OEW reduction and the improvements in SFC, the current 747-8 has a better payload-range than the 777-300ER, yet Tim Clark has firmly rejected any further interest in the plane as he waits for the 777-9 - which likely won't offer the payload-range of the 747-8, either.

LH, on the other hand, has shown interest in a larger 747 for over a decade, going back to the 747X of 2001 and committed to buying 20 (now 19) with options for another 20.
 
astuteman
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Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 9:22 pm

Quoting airfrnt (Reply 37):
I think its a little less painful for Airbus - Launch Aid, nothing better to do, and the prestige of the project counter-balances the lack of commercial success

I'd be interested to know why you feel the need to colour the arguments against VLA's with comments that imply that Airbus had little or no commercial interest in the A380's development.
They unquestionably have.

Launch aid? The $3.4Bn that was borrowed of the c $20Bn spent, needs to be repaid - they've reached the original break-even. Much of it already has been.
Nothing better to do? - when the A380 was launched, the A340NG, A330 and A320 were all selling well. In that sense you are correct.
Prestige? - Maybe. But I'm pretty sure airbus launched the A380 to complete a product line-up and make money.

And it's not over yet. For either plane

Rgds
 
cmf
Posts: 3120
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:22 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:30 pm

Quoting glbltrvlr (Reply 34):
AFAIK, the 748 has been cash flow positive from the first delivered frame and won't take many sales to recoup the design investment, so the only drawback to having it is the opportunity cost of having engineering resources working on it when they could have been doing something else.

Adding to what Stitch said, this is from Boeing's latest quarterly report:
"At March 31, 2013 and December 31, 2012, commercial aircraft programs inventory included the following amounts related to the 747 program: $1,312 and $1,292 of deferred production costs, net of previously recorded reach-forward losses, and $ 653 and $683 of unamortized tooling costs. At March 31, 2013, $1,046 of 747 deferred production costs and unamortized tooling are expected to be recovered
from units included"

The numbers tell us cashflow is still negative but close to turn.
 
fcogafa
Posts: 1335
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 4:37 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Wed Jun 05, 2013 11:13 pm

Flightglobal today quotes Boeing as saying that the B748 will be produced into the next decade and that orders will be announced in the coming months
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27674
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 12:15 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 41):
Flightglobal today quotes Boeing as saying that the B748 will be produced into the next decade and that orders will be announced in the coming months

Well that's what they said at Paris 2011 so at least they're being consistent show on show.  
 
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SEPilot
Posts: 5738
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:29 am

Quoting PM (Reply 13):
The MAX is the third generation of the 737

Try again; it's actually the fourth.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 37):
One can argue that in restrospect, Boeing might have been better off giving EK what it wanted, rather than LH.

Except that all indications are that EK was never serious and LH obviously was. Also, I believe that since the 748i and F models are now the same length development and certification costs were slightly less. But as others have said, what has really killed the 748i is the 77W, and now the 779X. When the 748 was launched the 77W was not yet flying, and nobody knew how good it was going to be. So while the future of the 748i is bleak, there is still a lot of hope for the 748F. Ironically, it's only competition is the 777F. As to whether Boeing regrets the decision, I think they probably think it's too soon to tell. If the economy improves and air freight picks up again, they may yet sell a bunch of 748F's
 
sweair
Posts: 1816
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:59 am

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:48 am

I think the nose door is what will save the 748F, it sets it apart from any other civilian freighter. It can simply haul stuff no other freighter can outside military freighters. And it can haul a lot, 130t+ over 4000nm.
 
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neutrino
Posts: 1536
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 5:33 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:21 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 43):
Quoting PM (Reply 13):
The MAX is the third generation of the 737

Try again; it's actually the fourth.

He's not the only one and certainly won't be the last.
Plenty of folks missed the Jurassics or Originals (-100 & -200) that came before the Classics (-300, -400 & -500); often lumping them as one generation or inadvertently omitting them altogether.
The fault is primarily Boeing's as they put names to all the generations - ie MAX, Next Generation/NG & Classic (retroactively after introduction of the NG) in descending order - except the first.
 
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KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:35 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
LH, on the other hand, has shown interest in a larger 747 for over a decade

Any idea why LH is so dedicated to the 747? Is it personal love or something else?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
and committed to buying 20 (now 19) with options for another 20.

There is however a good chance that LH will never firm those options.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21642
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:53 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
Any idea why LH is so dedicated to the 747? Is it personal love or something else?

Probably a combination of:

LH getting airframes much quicker than they would with the A380

• the 748 supplementing LH's capacity range for flexibility

• Boeing offering very attractive pricing to LH as a launch customer, including compensation for the performance shortfall plus possibly cost-of-ownership clauses (buyback / resale risk mitigation) to keep the 748i program from failing completely

• for LH, keeping a working relationship with both manufacturers doesn't hurt, particularly since LH provides maintenance for many other airlines (including possibly for ones with 748Fs)

• an existing 744 pilot pool easing introduction

[Edited 2013-06-06 07:55:32]
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6633
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:59 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 13):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Being the third generation 747 Boeing's expectaions had to be small.

Really? The MAX is the third generation of the 737. Are Boeing not expecting much of that?

Actually they are each fourth generation:

737-100/200
737-300/400/500
737-600/700/800/900
737 Max

747-100/200
747-300
747-400
747-8
 
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SEPilot
Posts: 5738
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Does Boeing Rue The Day It Developed The 748?

Thu Jun 06, 2013 3:01 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
Any idea why LH is so dedicated to the 747? Is it personal love or something else?

How about that they have been excellent planes for LH, and have served them very well for a long time?

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