lucianflyboy
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AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:04 pm

I searched if this had been mentioned but didn't find any posts.

I have found a few AA flights around the system that have been canceled due to 'unable to crew' per flifo.

AA 384 - ORD-LGA - 8/2
AA 782 - DFW-LGA - 8/3
AA 434 - DFW-TUL - 8/2

All of these are S80 aircraft. Anyone have any word on the cause of this?
 
OB1504
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:19 pm

Is there any distinction made between being unable to find flight crew or cabin crew? If the former, it may be that the long-awaited pilot shortage is finally upon us.
 
as739x
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:23 pm

Also not uncommon towards the end of the month due to crew legality. Specially if there have been weather issues through the system.
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
roseflyer
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:27 pm

Not having enough crew to cover flights departing from a major hub and crew base is a real problem. I can understand bad weather causing backlogs and crews to run out of duty time, but it is a problem when you don't have enough crew at your hub to operate flights. Sure it is summer with a busy schedule and people wanting vacation time and days off, but still it is a planning problem when there aren't enough crews to operate regularly scheduled flight. Has the weather been particularly bad in any of AA's main markets?
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
Maverick623
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:42 pm

Quoting lucianflyboy (Thread starter):
I have found a few AA flights around the system that have been canceled due to 'unable to crew' per flifo.

And if you look at the US system, the DL system, the WN system... heck, just pick an airline, you will find at least three "crew unavailable" cancellations.

Two of the flights you mentioned go to LGA - an airport very well known for ATC delays. Pilots fly in from somewhere else, run into a 3+ hour delay, and there goes their legality.

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 3):
Not having enough crew to cover flights departing from a major hub and crew base is a real problem. I can understand bad weather causing backlogs and crews to run out of duty time, but it is a problem when you don't have enough crew at your hub to operate flights.

3 flights over 2 days isn't "not having enough crew".


This thread is building a mountain out of a molehill.
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flyfree727
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 6:49 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 4):
This thread is building a mountain out of a molehill

Let me give it a little more substance then.

As of 145pm/1Aug:

for Aug 2nd, 51 flights cancelled, unable to crew.
For Aug 3rd, 49 flights cancelled, unable to crew.


AA ORD
 
roseflyer
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:06 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 4):
Quoting roseflyer (Reply 3):
Not having enough crew to cover flights departing from a major hub and crew base is a real problem. I can understand bad weather causing backlogs and crews to run out of duty time, but it is a problem when you don't have enough crew at your hub to operate flights.

3 flights over 2 days isn't "not having enough crew".

Very true, but the thread reminded me of UA in December 2007 when they had a severe shortage of crew and were cancelling flights all over the network due to pilot shortages. I agree a couple flights isn't that bad, but why are they having cancellations out of DFW? I would expect them to have enough reserves. LGA is more understandable.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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readytotaxi
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:13 pm

When the link says unable to Crew, is that cabin, cockpit or both?
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lucianflyboy
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:37 pm

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 5):
for Aug 2nd, 51 flights cancelled, unable to crew.
For Aug 3rd, 49 flights cancelled, unable to crew.

Thanks Flyfree727!!
 
Maverick623
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:08 pm

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 5):
Let me give it a little more substance then.

That's better.  
Quoting roseflyer (Reply 6):
but the thread reminded me of UA in December 2007

The same thing happened to US in the fall/winter of 2009. Pilots were hitting their max hours, and they furloughed too many flight attendants.
"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
 
aluminumtubing
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:54 pm

I can't comment on the FA's, but AA is definitely short pilots. I have had some interesting calls from crew schedule.
 
FlyHossD
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:58 pm

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 4):
3 flights over 2 days isn't "not having enough crew".

Actually, it is. Before these flights were cancelled for lack of crew, you can guarantee that the Crew Desks were reassigning other crews and did so to the maximum extent of their capabilities.

Chronic understaffing - and the effect it was having on the quality of my life - was one of the largest reasons I decided to retire early. The speadsheet centric planners just can't seem to understand why reserves shouldn't be planned to fly the maximum every month; to them, having a reserve is a waste of money. IMHO, there's no way they can accurately model the amount of flight time over the scheduled block hours (I'm speaking from budgetary battles over just that issue).

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 10):
I can't comment on the FA's, but AA is definitely short pilots. I have had some interesting calls from crew schedule.

Been there, done that. Don't need to do it again.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
hivue
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:18 am

Quoting as739x (Reply 2):
Also not uncommon towards the end of the month due to crew legality.

8/2 and 8/3 are the beginning of a month. Is this stuff done on a calendar month basis? Are there a new set of reserves ready to go for August?

I have a relative flying AA DFW-BWI on 8/7. Does it look like there could be a problem or should everything be cycled back to normal by then?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
ozark1
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:23 am

I concur with FlyHossD. This is not a good thing and ANY departures with Unable To Crew status is a problem.
I have noticed it happening during either the first few days of the month or the last few. This is just my thought but I believe it is caused by short staffing and a conflict with flying into August from July. The current month operation always takes precedent over the next month. So the possibility of a conflict is higher----for example, in the month of July a crew takes a trip out on 7/31 and the sequence ends 3 days later on 8/2. If any of the crew had bid an August line that flew a trip out on 8/2, they would be removed from that trip due to the overlap of the previous month.
Not sure if this makes sense, but I think it is a contributing factor. I cannot imagine that it is a flight attendant shortage as they are in full swing of hiring. It will be interesting to see how this all pans out.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:30 am

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 5):
Let me give it a little more substance then.

As of 145pm/1Aug:

for Aug 2nd, 51 flights cancelled, unable to crew.
For Aug 3rd, 49 flights cancelled, unable to crew.


AA ORD

Does that include Eagle, too, or just mainline?
 
FlyHossD
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:30 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 12):
8/2 and 8/3 are the beginning of a month. Is this stuff done on a calendar month basis? Are there a new set of reserves ready to go for August?
Quoting ozark1 (Reply 13):
I have noticed it happening during either the first few days of the month or the last few. This is just my thought but I believe it is caused by short staffing and a conflict with flying into August from July. The current month operation always takes precedent over the next month. So the possibility of a conflict is higher----for example, in the month of July a crew takes a trip out on 7/31 and the sequence ends 3 days later on 8/2. If any of the crew had bid an August line that flew a trip out on 8/2, they would be removed from that trip due to the overlap of the previous month.

Ozark1 has it right. Crews that weren't legal to finish the month in the planned position/destination most definitely impact that beginning of the next month.

At my former carrier, we were always robbing Peter (tomorrow) to pay Paul (today).
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
AA94
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:32 am

Interestingly enough, AA just announced their plans to hire 1500+ flight attendants.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/257765017...ng-to-hire-1500-flight-attendants/
 
Piedmont727
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:40 am

I wish this pilot shortage would come around when I'm ready to join a airline
 
PDX88
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:13 am

Quoting piedmont727 (Reply 17):

This is only the beginning...
 
Italianflyer
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:30 am

Quoting AA94 (Reply 16):
Interestingly enough, AA just announced their plans to hire 1500+ flight attendants.

http://video.foxnews.com/v/257765017...ng-to-hire-1500-flight-attendants/

Makes one wonder what happened to the 1500 they hired in the fall of 13/winter of 14.
 
hivue
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:40 am

They charge for checked bags. They charge for food. They charge for a window or aisle seat. The least they can do is have crew available to fly the airplane.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
flyfree727
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:33 am

Quoting AA94 (Reply 16):
Interestingly enough, AA just announced their plans to hire 1500+ flight attendants.

This was not "just announced." AA announced this last fall. And as of 8/28/13, 22 classes will have graduated.

Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 19):
Makes one wonder what happened to the 1500 they hired in the fall of 13/winter of 14.


You are a little off on your dates (years) but I follow what your are saying. The 1500 announced last fall (fall of '12) was for hiring/training during 2013. My guess is after another round of buyouts (on the AA and US side), AA will be hiring indefinitely.

AA ORD
 
AA94
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:51 am

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 21):
This was not "just announced." AA announced this last fall. And as of 8/28/13, 22 classes will have graduated.

My mistake. It was reported by several news outlets as if it was just announced today. I stand corrected!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:49 am

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 5):
for Aug 2nd, 51 flights cancelled, unable to crew.
For Aug 3rd, 49 flights cancelled, unable to crew.

Thank you for the numbers. That makes this thread more interesting.

Does anyone know why the lack of crew? Is it FAA legalities or union contract legalities limiting hours?
I would be curious to know if this is FA, pilot, or a mix (e.g., say S80 pilot shortage but 738 crew shortage, hypothetically).

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 10):
I can't comment on the FA's, but AA is definitely short pilots.

Do you have more infomation? I would like to know more. For too long the 'pilot shortage' has been immanent. If it is here, its time to talk statistics...

Quoting flyfree727 (Reply 21):
This was not "just announced." AA announced this last fall. And as of 8/28/13, 22 classes will have graduated.

That still raises the question, is the issue F/As or pilots?

AA flies 3,400 flights per day. 1.5% of flights cancelled for lack of crew seems far too high. 0.1% (or about 3 flights per day) would be fine. Hence, I understand why early posters thought 3 flights per day cancelled was not news. 1.5%... That is a drinking problem.  

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aa773
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:00 am

3% of the operation is cancelled for the 2nd Aug due to op crew according to DECS
 
777ord
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:09 am

Ouch! That's a big hit... Does AA do what UA does with "Senior Manning" where any lineholding pilot who does a pick up of a trip that cannot be covered by a reserve can be flown by a LH at 200% pay?
 
BA777
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:18 am

What are the flight crew limits? In Europe we have 100 hours in a rolling 28 day period, is it done in fixed months in the states?
 
0newair0
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:54 am

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 1):
Is there any distinction made between being unable to find flight crew or cabin crew? If the former, it may be that the long-awaited pilot shortage is finally upon us.

The majors should never, and I'm going to add will never, have "pilot shortages". The pilot shortage so often talked about will only affect the regionals. If there is a shortage of pilots at a major it is would be caused by 2 things: 1) piss poor planning and/or 2) a union sickout.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
capitol8s
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:30 pm

from a crew planning perspective, it was probably a bad "month to month" transition (Integration) with lot's of open flying and the end of July and the 1st 4 days of the new month. I'm not sure if AA actually builds "move up" lines to clean up the remainder of open flying for the new month after the initial bid award has been posted. This would give the reserves who really want to fly the opportunity to hold a hard line for the month of August instead of sitting reserve or do they just dump it on the crew schedulers to get the trips covered.
"Happiness is a flight on a Capitol Air DC-10"
 
aluminumtubing
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:11 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 23):
Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 10):
I can't comment on the FA's, but AA is definitely short pilots.

Do you have more infomation? I would like to know more. For too long the 'pilot shortage' has been immanent. If it is here, its time to talk statistics...

I believe our current situation at least in the short term is simply based on waiting too long to recall furloughed pilots. As a very senior line holder, crew schedule has left many messages trying to reassign me to cover last minute trips. So again, this is a short term issue based on poor planning.

As for long term pilot shortage issues, I don't have a clue what the bottom line is. I don't believe the majors will have much of a problem as they will draw from the regionals. The regionals will have a tough time going forward, especially with the new requirements.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:29 pm

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 29):
I believe our current situation at least in the short term is simply based on waiting too long to recall furloughed pilots. As a very senior line holder, crew schedule has left many messages trying to reassign me to cover last minute trips. So again, this is a short term issue based on poor planning.

Interesting. Thank you. So this is a lack of enough pilot classes early enough to staff up. I appreciate the insight.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 29):
I don't believe the majors will have much of a problem as they will draw from the regionals.

Concur. The majors also have that carrot of the 'big metal.'  
Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 29):
The regionals will have a tough time going forward, especially with the new requirements.

That is what I wonder. I live near a flight school and its just not possible for me to jog down my favorite trail without meeting a commercial pilot in training (assuming I actually talk to people...). Pilots have to start somewhere... I wonder if it will be with more helicopter hours? With the new rest hours, the lifestyle will be fractionally improved which will attract more pilots.

I also personally see the regional flying slightly declining with the major 3 consolidation and up-gauging to 76 seat RJs.

What is the minimum fixed wing time under the new rules?

Quoting capitol8s (Reply 28):
This would give the reserves who really want to fly the opportunity to hold a hard line for the month

That assumes a surplus of reserves... Which is uneconomic and thus unlikely. If AA had the surplus of pilots, I would think enough reserve pilots would want to fly a line position if open.


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BoxBoy
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:17 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 23):
Do you have more infomation? I would like to know more. For too long the 'pilot shortage' has been immanent. If it is here, its time to talk statistics...
Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 27):
The majors should never, and I'm going to add will never, have "pilot shortages".

It is here buddy. US is going to retire 3/4 of their pilots in the next five years. Delta, United, AA will see half of theirs go. The majors have been pushing congress to change the retirement age to 67 to help them because they know that they can NOT hire fast enough to keep up.

Regionals and majors will be affected. There is no supply of pilots that can make up for this. The flight schools don't have many students because people wizened up and realized that $100K in debt to get a regional job that pays $28K a year is stupid. Air Force fighter pilots get a couple of tours then go to drones so they don't get the hours required of an ATP anymore. Air Force freighters have been reduced over the years so many of those guys are gone, and those remaining are few. That leaves Navy and Marine Corps pilots which is not a big pool either.

BTW, because of the stagnation of the majors hiring due to the economy and age 65 change, pilots at the regionals are also starting to retire.
 
hivue
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:44 pm

Quoting BoxBoy (Reply 31):
US is going to retire 3/4 of their pilots in the next five years. Delta, United, AA will see half of theirs go.

I don't quite follow. 75% of US pilots and 50% of DL and AA pilots right now are 60 yrs old or older?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
AA94
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:55 pm

Quoting BoxBoy (Reply 31):
The flight schools don't have many students because people wizened up and realized that $100K in debt to get a regional job that pays $28K a year is stupid. Air Force fighter pilots get a couple of tours then go to drones so they don't get the hours required of an ATP anymore.

  

I think this is an important reality that sometimes gets overlooked. I've considered going to flight school many a time, but the fact that you've pointed out above is the realization that I've come to. Going to college is going to be costly regardless, so it's about trying to figure out how to best position myself after graduation. The economy may be very different in four years, but I'm fairly certain that I could find a job that pays more than $28k outside of school.
 
FlyHossD
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:58 pm

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 29):
I believe our current situation at least in the short term is simply based on waiting too long to recall furloughed pilots.

Reading that sentence made me think of AA's much delayed decision to replace the MD-80s. No doubt that there were meetings, upon meetings, upon meetings which only delayed a decision that had to be made.

And I'm not picking on just AA here. I've seen the same from other carriers. Unlike extending aircraft leases or delaying aircraft retirements, the difference here is that (unless there's another change to the retirement age), that the pilots are DONE when they hit 65.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
katwspotter
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:34 pm

Quoting capitol8s (Reply 28):
from a crew planning perspective, it was probably a bad "month to month" transition (Integration) with lot's of open flying and the end of July and the 1st 4 days of the new month. I'm not sure if AA actually builds "move up" lines to clean up the remainder of open flying for the new month after the initial bid award has been posted. This would give the reserves who really want to fly the opportunity to hold a hard line for the month of August instead of sitting reserve or do they just dump it on the crew schedulers to get the trips covered.

As a crew scheduler myself, it usually just gets dumped on us to cover and potentially junior man pilots and FAs if we run out of reserves. Integration is everyone favorite part of the month (sarcasm) because pilots cant drop flying due to the mass amount of open flying that is already being planned to be covered by reserves plus the sick calls, commuting issues, and what ever else you can think that a pilot or FA cant come to work for. It unfortunately happens every month. Some go better than others but it is certainly not uncommon.
"You're cleared to land on the green dot"
 
max999
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:42 pm

From a passenger's perspective, what does lack of crew mean for them?

For example, if a cancellation is weather related, the passengers are left to fend for themselves. If it's a lack of crew and the passenger is stuck overnight, does this mean they get meals and a hotel?
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
MIflyer12
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 5:53 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 32):
I don't quite follow. 75% of US pilots and 50% of DL and AA pilots right now are 60 yrs old or older?

Pilots CAN retire before age 65. What numbers do isn't known to me.

I've seen Delta's mandatory pilot retirements numbers by year over the next five years and it's nowhere near 50% in total. There's probably an ALPA list somewhere, by carrier.
 
aluminumtubing
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 6:30 pm

Quoting Katwspotter (Reply 35):
Quoting capitol8s (Reply 28):
from a crew planning perspective, it was probably a bad "month to month" transition (Integration) with lot's of open flying and the end of July and the 1st 4 days of the new month.

This was occurring mid month as well. That's when the calls to my voice mail started. The monthly transition is always "interesting", I am sure. However, this has been an ongoing problem. They are allowing us to fly up to 96 hours on some fleets, which of course will just make the problem worse at the end of the year. Waiting to recall is the big problem especially when they knew that they had the new Airbus training coming up. I am not bashing management, just reporting the facts. I actually helped them out a couple of times!
 
bobnwa
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Fri Aug 02, 2013 9:15 pm

Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 19):
Makes one wonder what happened to the 1500 they hired in the fall of 13/winter of 14.


Unless I'm issing something, the fall of 13 and the winter of 14 have not occured yet.
 
OB1504
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sat Aug 03, 2013 2:54 am

Quoting BoxBoy (Reply 31):
Regionals and majors will be affected. There is no supply of pilots that can make up for this. The flight schools don't have many students because people wizened up and realized that $100K in debt to get a regional job that pays $28K a year is stupid

The worst part is that you're over the average starting salary by $10K. $14,000 to $20,000 is what first-year regional airline pilots have to look forward to.

Bring on the pilot shortage if only so that the regionals start paying salaries people can live off of.

Quoting max999 (Reply 36):
For example, if a cancellation is weather related, the passengers are left to fend for themselves. If it's a lack of crew and the passenger is stuck overnight, does this mean they get meals and a hotel?

I believe it technically falls as being within the airline's control as the airline is the one that decides scheduling in the first place. I would expect accommodation or a refund to be provided.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:03 am

Quoting BoxBoy (Reply 31):
It is here buddy. US is going to retire 3/4 of their pilots in the next five years. Delta, United, AA will see half of theirs go. T

Far higher numbers than I see on airline pilot central

US, by end 2017 is 17.6% in five years, not 75%:
http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/us_airways.html
Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 120
2014 - 171
2015 - 173
2016 - 206
2017 - 234
2018 - 262
2019 - 274
2020 - 261
2021 - 250
2022 - 223
2023 - 299
2024 - 239
2025 - 229


Again, I'm looking for statistics showing there is a true shortage. I hear people emphatic about the shortage, but mostly people who want it. I personally know too many pilots who would go back to commercial flying if it didn't require such a sharp drop in pay. I'd like to see pilots paid more appropriately at the regional level.

But let's talk statistics. Real numbers, not wishes.

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 38):
They are allowing us to fly up to 96 hours on some fleets, which of course will just make the problem worse at the end of the year.

Now that will make things interesting. Remind me what the current annual maximum is?

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 40):
Bring on the pilot shortage if only so that the regionals start paying salaries people can live off of.

And because flying is fun, as soon as wages are living wages, the threat of a shortage would be over. Part of that will be accomplished dumping 50 seat RJs and replacing them with the 76 seaters.

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Italianflyer
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:38 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 39):
Unless I'm issing something, the fall of 13 and the winter of 14 have not occured yet.

LOL...I was using my phone and have fat fingers...i meant fall '12/winter 13 (yes, I know where we are in the calender).

However I am being serious. IF AA is adding 3K F/A's (in addition to new pilots and support personnel) to staff in a rolling 12 month period, this is the kind of hiring we havent seen in the industry since the late 90s. While the short-term disruption of operations due to 'lack of crew' is bad....the overall picture going forward looks positive. It is nice to see 'now hiring' sings in the industry rather than 'now downsizing' announcements.
 
aluminumtubing
Posts: 342
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:40 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):
Now that will make things interesting. Remind me what the current annual maximum is?

1000 hours per calendar year.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sun Aug 04, 2013 6:46 am

Quoting aluminumtubing (Reply 43):
1000 hours per calendar year.

So that implies pilots will run out of hours in 10 and half months. So unless AA pilots get a bunch of vacation, you are right in noting there will be an end of the year issue.


Lightsaber
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norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: AA Cancelations This Weekend - Unable To Crew

Sun Aug 04, 2013 10:31 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 41):

Check those APC retirement numbers and total all the carriers that have retirement data posted. Then find the total number of regional pilots employed right now.

Then you can see the problem.

There are more major airline pilots retiring in the next 10 years then there are regional pilots. That only gets us about 1/2 way through the major pilot retirements. There is still about another 10 years left in that wave.

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