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aa777lvr
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Air Wisconsin Future?

Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:39 pm

Hi,

With only 70 or so CRJ-200's, what type of future will Air Wisconsin have? Will they play a larger role in the combined US/AA?

-AA777LVR
 
toltommy
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 12:40 am

It depends on the price they can offer the new carrier. The combined carrier has plenty of 50 seat flying in house between Eagle and PSA. There will be a need for SOME 50 seat flying going forward, probably not as much as there is today. But the regional who will provide will likely be the regional who has the lowest bid. Air Wis has a natural end date on their current contract with US, which makes them an easy mark to cut. If they don't win the bid for 50 seat flying with the new AA, times will get tough fast. The likelihood of finding homes for those jets are slim, and even their ground handling business is going to fight for survival. They simply don't have the size that AEGS, DGS, and Swissport has in order to be competitive on price. They've certainly got challenges ahead of them.
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YXwatcherMKE
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 1:17 am

It just seems to be a case of not staying up with the times. Hanging on to the CRJ-200's when everyone else were getting the 700's & 900's or E70/75/90/95's. The management failed to see the writing on the wall of the future. It makes me sad to see the once strong carrier turn into a such a poor case of missed opportunities.
I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
 
ouboy79
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 1:19 am

Would it maybe be an opening for them to look at ATRs or flying Dash 8s again (granted not the same old -300s) to tackle the markets that simply can't justify an RJ's costs?
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 1:38 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 1):
Air Wis has a natural end date on their current contract with US, which makes them an easy mark to cut

  

I have no doubt that DP would like to cut 50 seaters DL-style in the future. ZW are an obvious place to start given that their contract is up in 2015. I understand that Eagle have a minimum capacity agreement with AA (?) so it will be much harder to park Eagle ER4s than simply not re-new the ZW contract [someone please correct me if I'm wrong there]

Quoting toltommy (Reply 1):
even their ground handling business is going to fight for survival. They simply don't have the size that AEGS, DGS, and Swissport has in order to be competitive on price

  


Air Wisconsin's biggest issue is (similar to Comair) they are stuck with an inefficient fleet and a relatively senior workforce. Even if they were to re-equip with more suitable aircraft, it would be difficult for them to compete on price for contracts given that their labor costs are so high compared to the likes of GoJet and even RAH.

It's a shame, don't get me wrong, as I have enjoyed my USex flights with them (although I preferred PSA overall)
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ouboy79
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 3:39 am

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 4):
Air Wisconsin's biggest issue is (similar to Comair) they are stuck with an inefficient fleet and a relatively senior workforce. Even if they were to re-equip with more suitable aircraft, it would be difficult for them to compete on price for contracts given that their labor costs are so high compared to the likes of GoJet and even RAH.

It is sad how much this statement just screams how this industry isn't one you can work hard and retire at anymore. Someone is always going to do it cheaper than you and you can't plan to stay with the same company, if you like them, through retirement because you will become unaffordable. Shame.
 
m11stephen
Posts: 372
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 5:27 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 1):
They simply don't have the size that AEGS, DGS, and Swissport has in order to be competitive on price. They've certainly got challenges ahead of them.

I believe they are down to a dozen or so UAX out stations... Supposedly they lost their contract in IAD. Don't know when their operation there will come to an end. I think they have three US Airways ground handling stations but they may have lost those. Eagle, DGS and Skywest each have close to 30+ stations for UAX. It will certainly be interesting. Several of their pilots seem to think that ZW is very close to signing a new deal with US or that ZW is financing money in the US/AA merger.
My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
 
apodino
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sat Aug 03, 2013 4:48 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 4):

Air Wisconsin's biggest issue is (similar to Comair) they are stuck with an inefficient fleet and a relatively senior workforce. Even if they were to re-equip with more suitable aircraft, it would be difficult for them to compete on price for contracts given that their labor costs are so high compared to the likes of GoJet and even RAH.

It's a shame, don't get me wrong, as I have enjoyed my USex flights with them (although I preferred PSA overall)

The irony in this statement, is that many of the new hire pilots that have shown up at Air Wisky in recent months have all been ex comair guys with years of experience.

As for the seniority of the workforce...that is another problem, but I have started to see a lot of people about halfway down the list start to take jobs at the majors, which should push the list in a downward direction. The ZW ALPA unit has also fallen victim to the whipsaw mentality at the regional level and there is a huge sticking point in negotiations, which has led to the NMB getting invovled.


As for the future....nobody really knows as ownership holds their cards close to the vest. What is obvious is they will need a new fleet type to stay in business. Rumors have been that the company is strongly looking at the MRJ for future aircraft orders, but if the type is not delivered by 2015, they will have some problems.
 
FutureFO
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 12:53 am

MRJ's are not even scheduled for first flight in 2016. So no ZW will essentially be gone before that.
I Don't know where I am anymore
 
toltommy
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:14 am

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 5):
It is sad how much this statement just screams how this industry isn't one you can work hard and retire at anymore.

It's not just this industry. There's a reason we stopped shopping at Montgomery Wards and went to Wal-Mart instead. It's called value for the dollar. Customers are looking for the best value for the dollar, and that trickles down to employees. Employees need to provide value to their employer to be able to have longevity and the perks that come along with it. The days of raises simply because they've been doing the exact same job for 20 years instead of 10 are long gone. That model has proven to be unsustainable over and over. It's not done shaking itself out in this industry we love either. Southwest in particular is staring unsustainable employee costs in the face in the next 5 years or so. Again, it comes down to the value provided.
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toltommy
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:18 am

Quoting FutureFO (Reply 8):
MRJ's are not even scheduled for first flight in 2016. So no ZW will essentially be gone before that.

The contract with US expires in 2015. They don't have to be replaced. The end of the contract can be used to remove 50 seat capacity easily.
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crj900lr
Posts: 484
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:44 am

Quoting toltommy (Reply 1):
The likelihood of finding homes for those jets are slim,

If, and that's a big if, they get a new contract with the new AA it will have to be at a much lower cost and it would only be for about 15-20 aircraft. It won't be for 71 aircraft like it is with US currently. Doug is running the show and he already knows what he got from them at US and i'm sure he does not want to go down that road again. Unfortunately I can see their (ZW) management getting their golden parachute and closing the doors in 2015. Sad to see as there a few decent people who work there, but the CRJ-200 flying is quickly becoming a thing of the past and their management failed to upgrade along the way to secure their future.
 
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RyanairGuru
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting apodino (Reply 7):
I have started to see a lot of people about halfway down the list start to take jobs at the majors, which should push the list in a downward direction

That's interesting, good to know. And I honestly didn't realise that ZW are hiring.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 5):
It is sad how much this statement just screams how this industry isn't one you can work hard and retire at anymore. Someone is always going to do it cheaper than you and you can't plan to stay with the same company, if you like them, through retirement because you will become unaffordable. Shame

I concur with your sentiment, but that's how the world is now, for better or for worse. That said, I doubt that many people signing on with ZW planned to retire there.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
m11stephen
Posts: 372
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:16 am

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Sun Aug 04, 2013 2:16 am

I'm sure Air Wisconsin will continue to exist in one shape or another after 2015, I just don't see them going away. I'm sure they will downsize somewhat but I could really see them adding -700s or -900s to their fleet.
My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
 
krisair747
Posts: 228
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RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Mon Aug 05, 2013 1:08 pm

IMHO the ALPA contract needs to be finalized and put into place so that ZW can really go into negotiations with the new AA with all the labor groups intact.
Open your heart and push the limits
 
DashTrash
Posts: 1321
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:44 am

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Mon Aug 05, 2013 2:18 pm

Quoting YXwatcherMKE (Reply 2):
It just seems to be a case of not staying up with the times. Hanging on to the CRJ-200's when everyone else were getting the 700's & 900's or E70/75/90/95's. The management failed to see the writing on the wall of the future. It makes me sad to see the once strong carrier turn into a such a poor case of missed opportunities.

A regional can't just go an acquire new aircraft with no one to fly them for. You have to have a customer first.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 3):
Would it maybe be an opening for them to look at ATRs or flying Dash 8s again (granted not the same old -300s) to tackle the markets that simply can't justify an RJ's costs?

Same as above.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 5):
It is sad how much this statement just screams how this industry isn't one you can work hard and retire at anymore. Someone is always going to do it cheaper than you and you can't plan to stay with the same company, if you like them, through retirement because you will become unaffordable. Shame.
Quoting apodino (Reply 7):
The irony in this statement, is that many of the new hire pilots that have shown up at Air Wisky in recent months have all been ex comair guys with years of experience.

How long will they stick around though?

Quoting apodino (Reply 7):
The ZW ALPA unit has also fallen victim to the whipsaw mentality at the regional level and there is a huge sticking point in negotiations, which has led to the NMB getting invovled.

The only whipsaw mentality is management playing one regional off against another to wrangle out the cheapest labor that started during the last decade or so with the market saturation of RJs. It started with "which one of you turboprop airlines wants to fly jets? Who will do it the cheapest?" Then, most pilot groups put on their thinking caps, let SJS seep into their minds, and decide what price they're willing to whore themselves out for to fly these shiny new jets. Rinse and repeat for 70 and 90 seat jets. After those rates and work rules are presented to management, management returns to the regional airlines one at a time and says "ABC Airlines will fly this frame for $50 an hour. If you'll fly it for $48, they're yours." The major partner bounces the costs around to the other pilot groups, and the biggest whore wins. Usually. There have been other cases where the jets were going to be allocated one way or another, but the whipsaw was still used to get the airplanes flying cheaper.

It's quite brilliant from a management standpoint, and we as pilots have been stupid enough to play along. We MIGHT have reached the point where its going to stop, but there is a new aspect to consider in GoJets, and any other brand new regional that might start up (California Pacific anyone?).

As labor costs rise with seniority, the flying done by Air Wisconsin, Expressjet, etc, will eventually be transferred to newer regionals. At some point the replacement carriers such as GoJets will become too top heavy, and will be shut down with another regional coming in behind them to replace the lift. This is going to tbe the regional business model going forward. They will have about a 10 year lifespan.
 
flight152
Posts: 3463
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 8:04 am

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:22 pm

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 15):
As labor costs rise with seniority, the flying done by Air Wisconsin, Expressjet, etc, will eventually be transferred to newer regionals.

Oh really? You think there's a regional that can somehow staff the 500+ airplanes ExpressJet currently has?
 
DashTrash
Posts: 1321
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:44 am

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:34 pm

Quoting flight152 (Reply 16):
Oh really? You think there's a regional that can somehow staff the 500+ airplanes ExpressJet currently has?

Not overnight, but yes. Who's to say the regional who picks up the flying will operate all 500? The regional model is in the beginnings of a large shift. DAL started it, US/AA is continuing it. DAL is already dropping large numbers of 50 seaters to be replaced by larger RJs. The larger RJs will be replaced by mainline. All with less frequency than at present. It's starting at DAL, and will continue at AA first, then probably UAL later as contracts expire.
 
93Sierra
Posts: 384
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:01 pm

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:58 pm

Why not morph into a turboprop operator via new atrs or q400s? Piedmont is running old aircraft, why not try and position yourself in a competitive bid to the new AA? Also, I thought ZW had a seat on the US board as they provided financing during their BK?
 
93Sierra
Posts: 384
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:01 pm

RE: Air Wisconsin Future?

Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:59 pm

Why not morph into a turboprop operator via new atrs or q400s? Piedmont is running old aircraft, why not try and position yourself in a competitive bid to the new AA? Also, I thought ZW had a seat on the US board as they provided financing during their BK?

Or bid for other flying ( UA or Alaska etc)?

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