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Gonzalo
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Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 3:48 pm

Interesting !! :


"Boeing projects the commercial aviation industry will need more than one million new pilots and technicians to support the expanding demand for new airplane deliveries over the next two decades."

The Boeing outlook indicates that by 2032 the world will require:

498,000 new commercial airline pilots

556,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians


http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2013-08-...d-Global-Demand-for-Airline-Pilots


Does anyone know how close/far from this are the Airbus numbers ??

Rgds.
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maxpower1954
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 6:54 pm

One thing I've always noticed about these projected forecasts - they always assume no wars, no recessions or any number of other outside factors like oil embargoes that lead to the layoff of thousands of pilots. When I was an aspiring pilot in the 1970s there was all this hand-wringing about the looming "pilot shortage" because of the mass retirements of World War II era captains. The 1973-79 oil crises and the early 1980s recession took care of this "shortage" very nicely. I don't think this business is immune to these kinds of events in the future.
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:19 pm

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
498,000 new commercial airline pilots

556,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians

I realize these are probably worldwide numbers, but if those numbers are even half true, that is basically doubling the number of Commercial/ATP pilots and licensed maintenance technicians in the U.S. today.

Also, 2012 saw the second lowest number of Private Pilot certificates issued and the third lowest number of Commercial certificates issued in a decade. ATP issuances were up significantly in 2012, presumably due to many getting their ATP before the new rules go into effect.

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/avi...tics/civil_airmen_statistics/2012/
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goosebayguy
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 7:39 pm

In the UK the RAF has reduced in size massively in recent years. This means that technicians who used to be in plentiful supply are quickly vanishing. Add to this the increased number of ex military technicians who are now being taken on by civilian contractors working on the few military aircraft remaining and the industry is quickly entering a phase where there are fewer trained technicians. Strangely though technicians who work on the railways now receive far better pay than most in aviation. Its going to be an interesting few years as a huge swathe of baby boomers begin to retire.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:33 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 2):
Also, 2012 saw the second lowest number of Private Pilot certificates issued

Its not just issued. Active commercial pilot licences are dropping (from 125k to 119k):
(From your link, Table 4). Or more precisely, there are 9,300 fewer commercial pilot certificate holders at the end of 2012 than at the end of 2009.

The WSJ had an article on recruiting in China. I'm actually starting to believe there is a 'Captain' shortage as recruiting is drawing them away.

Wow, are there really 98,328 people with instructor certificates out of 311k with instrument ratings? That implies quite a few people on the sidelines... So I remain skeptical if there is an overall 'pilot shortage.'

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doug_or
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:37 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):
Wow, are there really 98,328 people with instructor certificates out of 311k with instrument ratings? That implies quite a few people on the sidelines... So I remain skeptical if there is an overall 'pilot shortage.'

Not sure I follow your reasoning, could you explain?
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:36 am

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 5):
Not sure I follow your reasoning, could you explain?

Well, I made an assumption that could be false. Once someone has an instructor certificate, is it easy to maintain it?

For my assumption is that there is/was a large number of pilots who are placeholding as instructors.

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YXwatcherMKE
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:51 am

Well I have a very good friend that had been Furloughed by UA ca few years ago that was a UA 777 Captain, then down to 767 then down to an A32X and 737's in the manner of 16 months. He has his instructors ticket and said that he has a new carrier now and has no plans on returning to UA. He is making 20% of what he made at UA but he loves what he does and he is home every night. He still gets a letter or a call once in a while asking if wants back in and he says no each time. I asked him just two weeks ago if he plans on going back and he said not if he can help it. He said that it would only happen if He lost the job he has now, But I now that his job is fairly safe, I don't think it would be taken away from him. Some day I am going to ask him to teach me to fly and get my private pilots rating, because I know he said he would.
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Max Q
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:03 am

Quoting YXwatcherMKE (Reply 7):


Well I have a very good friend that had been Furloughed by UA ca few years ago that was a UA 777 Captain, then down to 767 then down to an A32X and 737's in the manner of 16 months. He has his instructors ticket and said that he has a new carrier now and has no plans on returning to UA. He is making 20% of what he made at UA but he loves what he does and he is home every night. He still gets a letter or a call once in a while asking if wants back in and he says no each time. I asked him just two weeks ago if he plans on going back and he said not if he can help it. He said that it would only happen if He lost the job he has now, But I now that his job is fairly safe, I don't think it would be taken away from him. Some day I am going to ask him to teach me to fly and get my private pilots rating, because I know he said he would.

That makes no sense. If he was really a UA 777 Captain, the seniority required to hold that seat would have prevented him from being furloughed.


Something is wrong with that story.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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rwessel
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:02 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
Well, I made an assumption that could be false. Once someone has an instructor certificate, is it easy to maintain it?

Pretty much yes. A practical in one of the aircraft you're rated to instruct in, or a bit of recurrent training every 24 months. (Plus some other options).
 
YXwatcherMKE
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 6:10 am

Quoting Max Q (Reply 8):
That makes no sense. If he was really a UA 777 Captain, the seniority required to hold that seat would have prevented him from being furloughed.


Something is wrong with that story.

Oh I might not have his left seat status on the 777 right but I know he flew the bird, because his wife told me what flights he was on and I would track it on the various websites and it showed it as T7's. But I did see pictures of him with four bars on his selves of his UA coat and the shoulders of his shirt. So he did have Captain's status on some type. I know the man very well and I know he would not lye about it. He was given options as to what he could do or get bumped. He got bumped and he didn't like it, so he finally took the option that had been earlier offered and now he is out and happy he is.

[Edited 2013-08-29 23:27:10]
I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
 
aklrno
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:49 am

Over 19 years, that's about 26,000 pilots needed per year, most of those in Asia.

How many pilots are trained each year now? Will it be that hard to train more pilots per year in China than are trained in the US considering that they have 4-5 times the population? As China matures they can surely supply their own need for pilots.

I see nothing alarming in the projected needs for pilots and technicians. It seems to me that the limiting factor today for new pilots is the total number of jobs, not the desire for people to be pilots, or the ability to train them. As the jobs appear, so will the pilots.
 
flanker
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:33 am

PFFF yea right... maybe if the feds stop passing stupid rules and regulations regarding GA and certificates we might actually revive aviation in this country.
 
N809FR
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:33 am

I don't see how anyone is willing to pursue flying commercially any longer, getting a job with the regionals with their incredibly low wages just does not appeal given the high costs of getting a license.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:49 am

Quoting N809FR (Reply 13):
I don't see how anyone is willing to pursue flying commercially any longer, getting a job with the regionals with their incredibly low wages just does not appeal given the high costs of getting a license.

People will enter the aviation Industry out of pure love, because economic incentives are gone. Only in middle east and on some carriers you can have a decent pay. Considering Pilots are flying Aircraft that cost more than a hundred million dollars and have a HUGE responsibility, the wages are a shadow of what they were.

Maybe if there is a shortage, supply vs demand will make conditions better for a WHILE. after the 70 and half the 80s where the market was DEAD, the lure of a good job as a Pilot was seriously compromised. I know because my first career choice back then was become a pilot...did not because a lot of captains told me not to do it...and I dont regret it at all.

TRB
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bobnwa
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:00 pm

For years I have ready about pending gigantic shortages of airline pilots and technicians and they never seem to happen. Delta alone has over 50,000 pilot applications on file.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:31 pm

Quoting flanker (Reply 12):
maybe if the feds stop passing stupid rules and regulations regarding GA and certificates

The biggest problems have been fuel and insurance. The cost of renting a plane vs. 10 years ago has more than doubled, and in some places, tripled because of these two items.
Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
 
silentbob
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:38 pm

Quoting bobnwa (Reply 15):
Delta alone has over 50,000 pilot applications on file.

All of whom work for other airlines and would create an opening somewhere else if they were to take a job with Delta. The issue isn't that the majors can't find candidates, it's that the regional airlines are having (not may or will, they ARE having) difficulty filling open positions.

The low numbers of private and commercial certificates being issued now show problems the industry will be facing in 2-3 years.
 
norcal
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 12:41 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
Well, I made an assumption that could be false. Once someone has an instructor certificate, is it easy to maintain it?

It's incredibly easy to maintain. I renewed mine in about 2-3 hours on a weekend afternoon in the comfort of my home through an online program. Some offer a lifetime membership in the renewal program for a one time fee of about $120.

I don't ever plan on instructing again but I like having it just in case. It was also very hard to get it in the first place so I don't want to lose it. If I did ever want to go back into it I would probably work with an active instructor for a little bit just to brush up on the teaching skills.

There are a ton of people exactly like me.

I also wouldn't look at the numbers of commercial certificates and assume that is the available supply of pilots. A lot of those people have left the industry for better opportunities and won't come back unless there is a substantial raise. This wouldn't hurt major carriers too much but in all honesty regional carriers are utterly screwed in about 10 years or less. Unless of course they raise the pay a lot.....but then paying a respectable wage defeats the purpose of regional carriers.
 
dashman
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:52 pm

I started with airlines in the early 80's. The industry has degenerated to the point and is continuing to in the direction of being an airborne, high tech over glorified Greyhound(Trailways if you wish) bus system. By default pilots are bus drivers dealing with more often than not obnoxious, self righteous passengers. The job satisfaction I get is when I can close the cockpit door and "play with airplanes". Flying itself is fun and intellectually stimulating. Factor the Greyhound effect, low wages in the regionals, and the incredible cost to get a Commercial/ATP who would want to do it except for the love of aviation. Leave things as they are there will probably be a pilot shortage. However you can count on the airlines lobbying government for some special dispensation or program to get more pilots in the system thus short circuiting supply and demand economic concepts. Bottom line there will never be any money in aviation so we are back to "it is just too much fun playing with airplanes"
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 3:53 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
Well, I made an assumption that could be false. Once someone has an instructor certificate, is it easy to maintain it?

For my assumption is that there is/was a large number of pilots who are placeholding as instructors.

Lightsaber
Quoting rwessel (Reply 9):
Pretty much yes. A practical in one of the aircraft you're rated to instruct in, or a bit of recurrent training every 24 months. (Plus some other options).


Lightsaber, your assumption is largely correct. Maintaining an instructor certificate is quite easy to do as long as you don't let it lapse. A short, online course through one of several different FAA approved vendors once every two years is all that it takes to keep an instructor certificate valid.

However, I don't know that I'd go so far as to say that they are that many pilots waiting on the sidelines. A few, I'm sure (I could be accused of being one of them), but I would guess quite a number of those CFI holders are already holding pilot positions at airlines, cargo, corporate, etc. Many pilots maintain their CFI certificates even after they get jobs at airlines, cargo, corporate, etc. "just in case" they ever need it to find a job during a downswing. Also, many like to hold on to them in case a family member or friend needs a flight review or something. Why let it go when it took so much work to get and is so easy to maintain?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 4):

Its not just issued. Active commercial pilot licences are dropping (from 125k to 119k):
(From your link, Table 4). Or more precisely, there are 9,300 fewer commercial pilot certificate holders at the end of 2012 than at the end of 2009.

That is also true, however, active ATPs have actually increased, and are at the highest level of any year on the chart. While the increase in ATPs nowhere near matches the decrease in Commercial certificates, my assumption is that many of those commercial certificates were upgraded to ATPs but were not necessarily back-filled by new commercial certificate holders. The most notable change was in 2012. Table 17 from that link shows that in 2012, there were nearly 6,400 new ATPs issued, which is significantly higher than any other year on the chart. Again, my assumption is that a lot of ATP eligible Commercial certificate holders took the leap to get their ATPs before the new rules went into effect.

The combined total of all Commercial/ATP has been up and down over the last decade, however, I think the most telling detail is that active Private certificates are down significantly. More importantly new issuances of both private and commercial certificates, both stepping stones to an ATP, are close to the lowest they've been in a decade.

[Edited 2013-08-30 09:42:10]
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:51 pm

Quoting Max Q (Reply 8):
That makes no sense. If he was really a UA 777 Captain, the seniority required to hold that seat would have prevented him from being furloughed.
Quoting rwessel (Reply 9):
Pretty much yes.

Danke for answering my question.

Quoting aklrno (Reply 11):
Over 19 years, that's about 26,000 pilots needed per year, most of those in Asia.

   No wonder ANA bought the old Pan Am flight school.  
Quoting aklrno (Reply 11):
Will it be that hard to train more pilots per year in China than are trained in the US considering that they have 4-5 times the population? As China matures they can surely supply their own need for pilots.

Eventually. However, the USA is lucky to have a few locations better for year round training (New Mexico and Florida).

Two serous questions that I've forgotten the answer to   

1. Is an ATP required for small Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 20):
Table 17 from that link shows that in 2012, there were nearly 6,400 new ATPs issued, which is significantly higher than any other year on the chart. Again, my assumption is that a lot of ATP eligible Commercial certificate holders took the leap to get their ATPs before the new rules went into effect.

Thank you for taking the time to not only look into the data, but provide the direct source. Fascinating!

And I 100% agree with you. Only employable... get an ATP FAST!

Hence my curiosity into 'shortcuts' for an ATP.

Quoting aklrno (Reply 11):
It seems to me that the limiting factor today for new pilots is the total number of jobs, not the desire for people to be pilots, or the ability to train them. As the jobs appear, so will the pilots.

That has been the case. The theory is there will be suddenly a change in the job opportunities, in particular the need for ATPs and Captains aging out. I'm a wee bit skeptical.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 17):
Quoting bobnwa (Reply 15):
Delta alone has over 50,000 pilot applications on file.

All of whom work for other airlines and would create an opening somewhere else if they were to take a job with Delta.

Good point, but I know of at least 3 resumes at DL would would go from 'flying a desk' to flying for DL. So there is a small amount of slack. I think we can agree not much though.

Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
Some offer a lifetime membership in the renewal program for a one time fee of about $120.
Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
There are a ton of people exactly like me.

Thank you for answering my question in such detail.

Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
I also wouldn't look at the numbers of commercial certificates and assume that is the available supply of pilots. A lot of those people have left the industry for better opportunities and won't come back unless there is a substantial raise.

To a point I agree. However, now with defense cuts, I know a few dozen people who have commercial certs and for the most part instructor certs who could fly, if the job was right, in their last decade of eligible time. Note: These are all ex-military pilots where engineering/management jobs paid more than pilot jobs. But some have earned their 2nd pension and are ready to go back flying. In fact, I know of 3 who did so. (But that is flying chase planes for flight test... not exactly what we're talking about.) Now, I just missed our 'flight test reunion' (dang virus...), so I couldn't ask them. (We'll, I could have e-mailed... But sometimes the a.net answer is more complete including recent regulatory changes.)

Lightsaber
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PGNCS
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RE: Boeing : Half Million Pilots Needed Next Years

Sat Aug 31, 2013 5:11 am

Quoting YXwatcherMKE (Reply 7):
Well I have a very good friend that had been Furloughed by UA ca few years ago that was a UA 777 Captain, then down to 767 then down to an A32X and 737's in the manner of 16 months.

No way was a former UA 777 Captain furloughed in the remotely recent past.

Quoting Max Q (Reply 8):
That makes no sense. If he was really a UA 777 Captain, the seniority required to hold that seat would have prevented him from being furloughed.


Something is wrong with that story.

   Absolutely correct, Max Q.

Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
It was also very hard to get it in the first place so I don't want to lose it.
Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
There are a ton of people exactly like me.
Quoting norcal (Reply 18):
It's incredibly easy to maintain.

Agreed on all accounts, norcal. I keep my CFI current and haven't been in a light aircraft in any capacity since 1992.

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