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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:30 am

I know no more than anyone else here (and a good deal less than some) but it does sound like we've moved from rumours to something close to certainty about this order.

And it all just makes sense. The A350-900 and 777-9 seem to 'fit'.

I'm disappointed not to see the A350-1000 in there but I don't think we can rule it out in the future.

What this means for the LH 747-8i fleet, I don't know. I've had the privilege and pleasure of flying on them five times and I very much hope to do so again. I rather hope they stick around for many years to come.
 
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Stitch
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:44 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 97):
But when you add LH ignoring the 787 in favour of two other, newer programs, I think it is a bit worrying, however people may spin it.


If I was an LH shareholder, what would have worried me is them buying a plane that didn't work for them, regardless of which OEM it came from.

[Edited 2013-09-14 01:51:00]
 
Ronaldo747
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:51 am

I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted out.
 
columba
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:44 am

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 102):
I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted o

Could be I believe that LX for example will get an all Boeing widebody fleet in a few years. They are too small to have a mixed fleet and cross crew qualification between 787/777 would help them a lot.

I wonder if LH will order the regular A350-900 or the rumored "regional" version with shorter range.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
spink
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:54 am

Quoting columba (Reply 103):
I wonder if LH will order the regular A350-900 or the rumored "regional" version with shorter range.

If they order the "regional" version it ends up at about the same range/payload of the 78J. The main range/payload limiter for the 78J is weight for fuel at longer ranges with a given payload. Since the primary reason they would choose the 359 over the 78J is increased range at a given payload, it is unlikely they'll go for the regional version.
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:55 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 82):
I think the non 351 order is confirmation that the 351 is not sitting comfortably.
LH has said (indirectly) that it has too much range for the capacity (wrong payload/range), in their comments about building craft to suit the middle East carriers, whilst even the Middle East carriers, seemed unhappy with the last payload/range hike.

It has only 300nm more range. I think you're looking it from the wrong side: the A351 is in the same size as today's 77W and A346 aircraft, and Lufthansa was looking for something bigger. In the previous thread, people calculated an additional 22 extra seats for the A351 over the A346, versus 37 extra seats for the 779.

The A359 versus A343 will give them also an additional 38 extra seats, so Lufthansa was looking for aircraft growth around 40 additional seats. The 787-9 and A350-1000 are too small to replace the A340-300 and A340-600 fleet respectively, while the 787-10 will have payload issues as one can see in ferpe's chart in reply #95.

I also don't understand why you would compare the A351 directly against the 779, because it's closer to the 787-10 in terms of total amount of seats:

> A359: 314
> B781: 323
> A351: 350
> B779: 407

[Edited 2013-09-14 02:59:20]
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rotating14
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:02 am

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 102):
I would expect LH will order 787-10 later for A330 replacement. I think they just want to wait until the 787 problems are sorted out.

I think the 787-10 will find its way into the fleet as the A330 replacement eventually but LH CEO Frantz is unfazed by the delays and miscues.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/lufthansa-eyes-airbus-a350-boeing-787-and-777x

Quote:
Franz said that the Dreamliner's worldwide grounding would not colour his judgement when it came to a Boeing-or- Airbus decision.
"These are problems which happen if you have a very innovative new generation of aircraft. You should expect something like this to happen. I am absolutely convinced (by) the time the first aircraft will be delivered to Lufthansa it will all be forgotten."
 
EDDB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:08 am

The way I see it is that this order is only for 343 and 744/748 replacement. 359 order number more or less matches 343 planes in service for LH. And logically, concerning their age, these were the ones to be replaced soonest. As mentioned before the 333s are quite young, so a replacement was never part of this RFP and the order does not say anything about 787-10 or 358 chances at LH - this decision is 5-8 years down the road. Now the more delicate part, 779 replacing what..... Internal LH saying is that the 346s are to stay till at least 2022. That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years, similar to 333 replacement. And don't forget, from spring next year on ALL 346 will be based in MUC, together with some 333s. Adding 779 for at least a while would spoil all commonality advantages MUC is having (one reason MUC is a highly efficient base/hub for LH, much more efficient than FRA). So that leaves us with the 744/748 to be replaced. 779 as an ideal 744 replacement is a given I think, complete nobrainer. But what about 748? With only 40 ordered at a ridiculously low price (internal LH saying "We nearly got them for free"), a totally uneconomical production rate of 1,75/month, and adding the cost for performance improvements and maintenance guarantees over the years we can without any doubt assume that Boeing is losing money with every single plane leaving the assembly line! And by launching the 77X they clearly pulled the plug themselves, and they know that. Now LH... They're not this happy with performance (tail tank, water draining from the a/c, fuel consumption slightly below spec....), they're not happy with the fact that nobody else bought it which leaves them with the fact that they're absolutely worthless on second hand market, and they're uncertain about how maintenance costs will develop over the years with Boeing losing interest in a program that costs them money year for year for year for year.... So what's the only logical conclusion for both? Let's terminate this "bastard"! Win-win situation.... LH orders 779, maybe including a buyback of 748 (and if not, so what? When you got them nearly for free, why bothering phasing them out early?), Boeing will arrange a nice 779 deal for the remaining customers, and that's the end of the story (of course excluding 748F, that's a different story, but who knows? Maybe discontinuing the whole program is cheaper in the end than waiting for the freighter market to recover...)!
So that will leave LH with

A333 (B789/10 maybe later on)
A359/35J
B779
A388

in the early/mid 2020s....

No gaps in capacity and a highly efficient fleet (and the possibility of using commonality with 7810/779 at FRA and 359/35J at MUC)....

Let's see....

EDDB
 
sankaps
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 101):
If I was an LH shareholder, what would have worried me is them buying a plane that didn't work for them, regardless of which OEM it came from.

Absolutely. Or buying a plane that has on-going reliability issues with something fundamental like the electric power system, which continues to create lengthy AOGs even now though media attention seems to have moved on.

Delta clearly said this was a factor in their decision, it would be naïve to believe it is not a factor for others too.
 
tortugamon
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:33 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):

LH already has their 744 replacement in the a380 and 748. LH has expressly said this is to replace A340s.

They don't have 40 748s ordered

They don't care about the tail tank because they don't need the range. Trim is different.

LH did not get them for free.



tortugamon
 
idlewildchild
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:40 am

I'm surprised at the size of the Boeing order. I expected this order to be about 80% airbus and 20% boeing. The politics of ordering airbus have to be HUGE in Germany since it's home base. I figured Boeing would get a piece because of the volume of US traffic and wanting to keep on good terms with US overall. The split and the boeing share is a lot larger than I expected. Interesting. The 777 program truly is seen as something special. Perhaps when they get the A350-900 and if they're over the moon happy they'll reduce the boeing order? I wonder. I'll miss the A346 - I really like that plane... and I'm a boeing guy!
 
EDDB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
LH already has their 744 replacement in the a380 and 748. LH has expressly said this is to replace A340s.

Well, what CEOs say before an order and what happens afterwards... I think we all know how different that can be.
Btw why should LH not use the 779 as a 748 replacement if that may turn out to be the most economical thing to do after calculating through all scenarios...?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
They don't have 40 748s ordered

40 is the number of totally ordered748is by all airlines, just for clarification....

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
They don't care about the tail tank because they don't need the range. Trim is different.

Right you are, trim is different, and trim has a direct effect on fuel flow.... Never referred to range.....

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 109):
LH did not get them for free.

Never said so.... Just repeated LH internal saying "nearly for free", which will equal something like the price was so low that they couldn't resist buying it.... Which, btw, is also said about the second batch of 346s, therefore it was preferred then over a 773ER order.

EDDB
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
Internal LH saying is that the 346s are to stay till at least 2022. That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years,

This order is for A343 and A346 replacement.

The 779 is scheduled to enter the market around 2020, which is the perfect moment to start retiring the A346 fleet.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
That of course means there will be no decision on replacement for the next 5-8 years

With an EIS in 2020, they had to order now to secure delivery slots.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
So that leaves us with the 744/748 to be replaced.

LH has another 9 A380s and 10 748i on order, these aircraft can replace the remaining 20 744s.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
internal LH saying "We nearly got them for free"

Right.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
a totally uneconomical production rate of 1,75/month

But that's Boeing's concern.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):
absolutely worthless on second hand market

Is this a concern for LH? They fly their aircraft right into the scrapyard, they just retired a 744 with more than 110.000 flight hours.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Stitch
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:14 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 108):
Delta clearly said this was a factor in their decision, it would be naïve to believe it is not a factor for others too.

And yet even it if the 787 had entered service on time and was perfectly reliable, it still would be too small (787-9) and lack sufficient range (787-10) for LH to seriously consider it. To believe otherwise would be naive.

And that Boeing c**ked-up the 787 does not appear to have damaged their confidence in Boeing executing on the 777-9.

[Edited 2013-09-14 04:47:34]
 
EDDB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:31 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
Is this a concern for LH? They fly their aircraft right into the scrapyard, they just retired a 744 with more than 110.000 flight hours.

Don't be too surprised if this paradigm will change with the 748...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
But that's Boeing's concern.

Well this was only to underline that both customer AND supplier are not happy with the current status, both of course for different reasons...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
With an EIS in 2020, they had to order now to secure delivery slots.

Really? Is the orderbook that full already if they need it 2022/23 earliest as a 346 replacement..? Not so sure...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112):
The 779 is scheduled to enter the market around 2020, which is the perfect moment to start retiring the A346 fleet.

As I said, 2022/23 is the internal timeline to start 346 replacement, so let's wait and see what the 779s are supposed to replace, my bet is still on 748s with a nearly parallel termination of the program by Boeing, and a 350 follow on order for 25 35J in 3-5 years as a 346 replacement, just my 2cents....

EDDB
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:56 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 111):
Btw why should LH not use the 779 as a 748 replacement if that may turn out to be the most economical thing to do after calculating through all scenarios...?

The same can be said about the A346, which is (far more) uneconomic than the current 77W. Yet LH will keep them for almost 20 years, and are even making investments by upgrading the cabin to the new long-haul product.

So in general, if you're theory is correct, we have 2 uneconomic (beware, this is not the same as loss making) airframes (A346 and B748), but the first one gets upgrades and are here to stay for a long time, while the latter ones will be withdrawn within 10 years of service?

This sounds weird.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 114):
Really? Is the orderbook that full already if they need it 2022/23 earliest as a 346 replacement..? Not so sure...

Yes. The production rate of a new airframe is always low in the beginning, and Emirates is about to order as many as 100 units. If you want to secure delivery slots for the beginning of the 2020s, you'll have to order now.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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CARST
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:34 pm

I think if this turns out to be true, LH will still order the 787 in the future. But this could take a while, perhaps when the "second generation" is ready, a 787-9LR and -10LR would be perfect A333 replacements.

As KarelXWB pointed out, there is a replacement for all current types in their fleet, but no replacement for the A333 size class so far:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 30):
> A330
> A359 (replacing A343)
> B779 (replacing A346)
> B748 (replacing B744)
> A388 (replacing B744)

And even with growth in mind, they would still need an A333 size class plane for SN, OS and perhaps even LX.



Is a split-order for the narrowbody market possible now, too? They would need a huge number of A320 class aircraft for the whole LH group. This could be split up, too. Or did we saw a split-order already with the order of the C-Series?
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:39 pm

Quoting CARST (Reply 116):
Is a split-order for the narrowbody market possible now, too? They would need a huge number of A320 class aircraft for the whole LH group. This could be split up, too. Or did we saw a split-order already with the order of the C-Series?

The LH Group ordered 100 A320s a few months ago.

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...rder-for-100-a320-family-aircraft/
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
ferpe
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:40 pm

Just to comment on why frames like 787-10 and 350-900 loose so much range when they get realistically loaded when fuel guzzlers like the 340-300 does not.

It has to do with how these new efficient aircraft's reach their phenomenal ranges, by virtue of getting many nm per tonne of fuel. They both get about 88nm per tonne of fuel versus the 66nm the 343 gets out of a tonne. The flip side is it works the other way as well, you loose 88nm for every tonne of increased weight instead of 66.

So your range loss for an extra tonne in weight before you count the payload is 25% lower on the gaz guzzler then on the new "weight sensitive" efficiency wonders  . Something to brag about for the Captains of 744s or 343/346s  Wow!  . This can all be seen graphically in post 95, past the first corner of the curve is the tonnes of payload vs tonnes of fuel trade area. You trade down very fast on the 343 (and 744 etc) but you also trade up fast when you gain a tonne.

All this does not change the fact that these birds consume a lot of fuel and are thus uneconomical, it just explains how a 7300nm 744 (46nm/t) can be equally usable on a long leg as a 7900nm 77W (59nm/t) or a 8400nm 35J (77nm/t). When you load them up to the practical case their practical range is pretty similar.
Non French in France
 
Flyglobal
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:50 pm

Quoting EDDB (Reply 114):
As I said, 2022/23 is the internal timeline to start 346 replacement, so let's wait and see what the 779s are supposed to replace, my bet is still on 748s with a nearly parallel termination of the program by Boeing, and a 350 follow on order for 25 35J in 3-5 years as a 346 replacement, just my 2cents....

An Idea, just came to my mind: How about the LH 748is get a second life as converted Freighters?
It may not be economical for others, but in the LH case it could be a useful 2nd life?
It would perfectly fit to EDDBs scenario.
Whats your guys opinion?

Regards

Flyglobal
 
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BlueSky1976
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 1:37 pm

If the information turns out to be true, then I am sorry Lufthansa passed on the 787-10. At the same time, I will be truly happy to see old 747s being replaced by the awesome Mighty Triple Seven Next Generation. Kudos to LH for launching 777-9X.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
tortugamon
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:07 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 115):

Here here Well said.

Quoting CARST (Reply 116):

By the time these a330s need retiring they could be ready for an A359. Hard to say

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 119):

without a nose cone opening it may not be able to fit odd shaped cargo losing much of its benefit as a freighter.

tortugamon
 
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SEPilot
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:30 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 121):
without a nose cone opening it may not be able to fit odd shaped cargo losing much of its benefit as a freighter.

The nose door is seldom used in freighter operations. This is not as much a handicap as it might seem.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
alfa164
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:35 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 32):
But the saga continues: the whole world is buying 787s except LH

...and DL....  
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
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BlueSky1976
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:42 pm

Delta inherited its order for 787-8 from NW and kept it for delivery starting in 2020. I expect DL to operate every variant of the 787 family in due time.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
sankaps
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 113):
And yet even it if the 787 had entered service on time and was perfectly reliable, it still would be too small (787-9) and lack sufficient range (787-10) for LH to seriously consider it. To believe otherwise would be naive.

Absolutely. I don't think anyone is saying the 787's problems were the ONLY reason they would not order 787s... but it would certainly be ONE of the factors considered in any discussion of the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 113):

And that Boeing c**ked-up the 787 does not appear to have damaged their confidence in Boeing executing on the 777-9.

Why should it? The 777 is a great aircraft, the 777-9 is based on a proven airframe and surely Boeing will not repeat the mistakes it made with the 787.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 124):
Delta inherited its order for 787-8 from NW and kept it for delivery starting in 2020. I expect DL to operate every variant of the 787 family in due time.

I think Delta will wait and see. The 787 is a very attractive aircraft in terms of what it promises, so would be foolish to slam the door shut fully.
 
akelley728
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting avek00 (Reply 50):
Don't be surprised to see the 748s gone by the early 2020s. Lufthansa almost certainly expected a better uptake of the 748 than has occurred, and now they (along with KE) are facing the prospect of holding a fleet that will suffer from poor residual values, and for which they will have to shoulder nearly the entire burden of worldwide maintenance infrastructure as virtually all other 747 operators are committed to retiring their operating fleets by ~2020.

Poor residual values would be a primary reason why airlines hold onto planes longer. See Delta as the perfect example of this. Like Delta, Lufthansa has a top-notch maintenance organization, so they handle the 'burden' quite well. LH keeps their aircraft until they cycle or time out, and I predict that the 748s will be in LH's fleet until they reach the end of hours and/or cycle limit as well.
 
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SEPilot
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:24 pm

For those who think that LH's 748's are doomed to early retirement: I can see it both ways. But going by LH's history I think you are barking up the wrong tree. Look at what they did with the A346's. Nearly every other carrier in the world who had A346's has dumped them by now, but not LH. In fact, they ordered more even after it was evident that the 77W was far superior. They obviously calculated that they would lose more money by dumping the A346's than they would by operating them to the end of their useful life. And I believe that the operating cost margin between the A346 and the 77W is MUCH greater than the margin between the 748 and the 779. In fact, we do not know for sure (but strongly suspect) that the 779's economics will beat the 748 (considering that the 748 is being continually improved.) So based on prior practice I would expect LH to operate the 748's until their economic life has expired. And in order to have a big enough fleet to make it worthwhile they will take all of the ones they have ordered, and there is even the chance that they will exercise a few of their purchase rights.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
hawkercamm
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:54 pm

If the B779 order is true I do wonder if Boeing has taken their B748's part exchange  
Or, perhaps Boeing will redeliver their B748i as B748f?
 
bmacleod
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:48 pm

Would be ironic for the launch carrier of an airliner (747-8i) would also be the launch customer for the airliner that kills off or replaces that airliner? (777-9X)

[Edited 2013-09-14 10:49:34]
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phxa340
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:37 pm

Quoting hawkercamm (Reply 128):

I really like how many posters are stating that the only reason LH is buying the 777-9 is because of compensation/trade for the 748i. Is it possible that the 777-9 is going to be a great plane ? I'm so tired every time a Boeing order is announced the usual crowd comes out saying they only got the order is due to 787/747-8i problems or compensation.
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:48 pm

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 110):
I'm surprised at the size of the Boeing order. I expected this order to be about 80% airbus and 20% boeing. The politics of ordering airbus have to be HUGE in Germany since it's home base.

Politics are not running Lufthansa and this order proves it again.

So let's get some shovels and bury this a.net myth once and for all.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
gegarrenton
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:57 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131):
So let's get some shovels and bury this a.net myth once and for all.

Good luck!!
 
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LOWS
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:00 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 46):
More likely Lufthansa Group will order 787s for SN or OS first.
Quoting CARST (Reply 116):
And even with growth in mind, they would still need an A333 size class plane for SN, OS and perhaps even LX.

OS will need a replacement for the 763s and 772s before the end of the decade. The 788 and 789 will be perfect for the job.
 
spink
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:28 pm

Quoting LOWS (Reply 133):
OS will need a replacement for the 763s and 772s before the end of the decade. The 788 and 789 will be perfect for the job.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the 78J getting a little weight savings and a bit of a MTOW gain making it a much better airframe. The current 78J is very similar to the early 332/333 in its limitations, and as they zero in on it over the years, it going to gain a lot of capability. A net 5T increase in payload will get it close to 500nm in range.
 
LH506
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:48 pm

Quoting EDDB (Reply 107):

As I said earlier, I think down the road LH only needs

359 as 333 and 343 replacement
779 for 744, 748 and 346 replacement
380.
The only aircraft which would make sense to add is the 35J to close the gap between 359 and 779.
NOT FLOWN: 707 736 77L 788 78J 300B2 300B4 345 359 35J RJ70/146-100 F27 ATR72 CRJ1/4/10 E120/135/40 Q1/2/3 M87
 
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Stitch
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:03 pm

Quoting LH506 (Reply 135):
As I said earlier, I think down the road LH only needs

359 as 333 and 343 replacement
779 for 744, 748 and 346 replacement
380.

The only aircraft which would make sense to add is the 35J to close the gap between 359 and 779.

The 787-10 could plug that gap, as well.


LH has yet to clarify what they mean by their statement that they eventually want to operate "four types" of aircraft. Do they mean families or do they mean models?

If they mean families, that could be A350, 777, 747 and A380.

If they mean models, that could be A350-900, 777-9, 747-8 and A380-800.


And I have to believe that the LH Group wants to rationalize the widebody aircraft types across all of their subsidiaries. The A350-900 or 787-10 seem like natural A330-300 and 777-200ER replacements for OS, SN and LX. I'm guessing there will be no direct replacement for OS's 767-300ERs and SN's A330-200s - those will just be up-gauged to the A350-900 or 787-10.

[Edited 2013-09-14 14:06:14]
 
Robbie86
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:08 pm

I would say that it will be like this

A359 to replace A343 and A346
B779 to replace B744 and the A346 routes that needs more capacity.

And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.
 
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SEPilot
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:43 pm

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):

And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.

If they follow history they will fly the 748's until they can not fly economically any more. And they will take enough of them to make a viable subfleet. It is cheaper to operate a somewhat less than optimal airliner than to ditch a $200,000,000 investment (or thereabouts; I have no idea what they actually paid. But they did pay, and it was a lot of money.) And the 748 is not a dog; it just is not as good as the 779, in all likelihood. It will take a long, long, LONG time before the fuel cost difference between a 748 and a 779 will pay for the capital cost of ditching the 748's. Boeing is NOT going to give LH their money back for the 748's.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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KarelXWB
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:49 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 138):
And the 748 is not a dog; it just is not as good as the 779

The issue is that people sometimes translate "less economically" directly into "loss making".

[Edited 2013-09-14 14:49:46]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
neutronstar73
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:32 pm

Quoting sankaps (Reply 125):
I think Delta will wait and see. The 787 is a very attractive aircraft in terms of what it promises, so would be foolish to slam the door shut fully.

You aren't making any sense. First you say that DL and LH "rejecting" the aircraft is a negative endorsement on the program, but then you the above. Which is it? I'm a bit confused.

Quoting hawkercamm (Reply 128):
If the B779 order is true I do wonder if Boeing has taken their B748's part exchange  
Or, perhaps Boeing will redeliver their B748i as B748f?

This keeps coming up and I think it is more wishful thinking that reality.
 
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Stitch
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:39 pm

Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):
And I think they will turn their opts on the B748 to B779 and buy some more A380 to replace their current B748.

LH do not have options for the 747-8. They have Purchase Rights. I know it sounds like semantics, but a (Purchase) Option and a Purchase Right are different things to Boeing. Cargolux's 747-8F contract, for example, outlined 10 firm orders, 2 options and 10 purchase rights.

I do not know what the differences are between an option and a purchase right, but if I had to hazard a guess, I could see a purchase right not having a delivery slot window attached to it whereas an option would. It might not require any type of deposit or a smaller deposit than an option.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 138):
If they follow history they will fly the 748's until they can not fly economically any more. And they will take enough of them to make a viable subfleet.

  

I think it's very safe to say that LH will take delivery of all 19 747-8 they have on order, though I think they will not replace the one cancelled frame.
 
spink
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 141):

LH do not have options for the 747-8. They have Purchase Rights. I know it sounds like semantics, but a (Purchase) Option and a Purchase Right are different things to Boeing. Cargolux's 747-8F contract, for example, outlined 10 firm orders, 2 options and 10 purchase rights.

I do not know what the differences are between an option and a purchase right, but if I had to hazard a guess, I could see a purchase right not having a delivery slot window attached to it whereas an option would. It might not require any type of deposit or a smaller deposit than an option.

An option generally has a moderate deposit along with a line number slot attached to it and is generally at the fixed price (plus yearly escalation) that was negotiated as part of the order. A purchase right is a way of locking in a price, generally at the price of the order plus a yearly escalation, but does not reserve a specific LN/slot and generally requires a minimal deposit amount.

So an option locks in a delivery time frame but a purchase option does not. For a low volume/demand aircraft like the 748 there is little effective difference, but for a high volume/demand aircraft like the 787/350 it can make a significant difference.
 
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lightsaber
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:34 am

Well, this is a pleasant surprise. As an aviation fan I'm happy seeing two good planes sell.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team.

Thank you. I speculate that LH wishes to use both as combis (as others have already noted), and for that the A359 and 779 are great choices.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):

If this means no more 748I orders than this is a black friday for aviation.

It does look that way. Except... Boeing is cutting the weight and GE will reduce the fuel burn. The forward market of the 748I is small. LH buying 779s pretty much closes the biggest door on the 748I.  
Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):

There seems to be a history of "winner take all" orders producing two winners. UA, anyone?

   My thought too. Its winner take all until there is a better deal.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 57):
The maintenance for the folding wingtips should be very simple; less than for any control surface.

IMHO the folding wingtips are a gamechanger for aviation. Real estate at airports is becoming too constrained. A terminal can be build with higher floors (e.g., use escalators so that half the gates load from the 2nd floor and J class passengers load from the 3rd floor). By cramming in more gates, capacity becomes purely runway bound. And there is plenty of floor space for pubs, golf shops, and other 'revenue enhancers.' The #1 airframe innovation I'm excited about is folding wingtips.

Folding wingtips would allow (all of course future tense):
1. 100 seat RJs that will replace the 76 seat RJs.
2. A321/739 replacements with a longer wingspan and more wing area (lower wing loading) allowing far better hot/high performance with engines better optimized for cruise as takeoff is handled by the larger CFRP wing. For they are the 757 replacement in all but short field performance. I'm not a 'what will replace the 757' type here on a.net. But I think long term narrowbody gauge will grow to higher seat counts will be the norm. So sometime will make a long plane to fit into A32X or 738 gates.
3. And the 779 fitting with a foot less wingspan 77E/77W, it is an advantage. It would have been more impressive with a 200 foot folding span.

Quoting Prost (Reply 22):

Honestly, with the capabilities that the 777-9 is professed to have, it should be similar to flying a combi aircraft was 25 years ago.

But also the A359. Both will have excellent cargo payload at range. Excellent choices if cargo is a significant factor of the equation.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 127):

For those who think that LH's 748's are doomed to early retirement:

They could be retired early. This order is going to doom the A346s to an early retirement. I do not think either the 779 or A359 will replace the 748Is. For that I suspect the A389.  
Quoting robbie86 (Reply 137):

I would say that it will be like this

A359 to replace A343 and A346
B779 to replace B744 and the A346 routes that needs more capacity.

   A good fit. Some A346 routes are ready for frequency or due to hub bypass down-gauging.

Lightsaber
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tkukucka
Posts: 79
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:49 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):

Well Lufthansa CEO did say they won't buy 777-9x till there done with the 747-8
So totally with you on 747-8 door closing.. The order is for 343,,346 replacement not 747-400.
There should be enough A380s,748s on order to replace the 747s.
 
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DocLightning
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:51 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 77):
I certainly think it is a negative sign for the 787 program that the two latest orders for long-haul aircraft by two of the largest airlines of the world (DL and LH) have not included the 787.

How is that "negative"? The 787 was not built exclusively for the largest airlines in the world. The 77X, larger A350 variants, and A380 were. The 787 is a smaller aircraft built for a variety of airlines, but it is built to be the smallest aircraft with transpacific range. Thus, it is no surprise at all that an airline like LH with a network of thick long-haul routes wouldn't order it. As for DL, their corporate strategy is to operate older aircraft with lower lease payments and acquisition costs.

I don't think anyone at Boeing is losing sleep over either one. In fact, I think they would have been pleasantly shocked to have won either order.

Also, at some point, DL needs to replace their 767s. They will fly them until the end of the decade, but that's when they are due for their 787 orders.

Quoting sankaps (Reply 97):
As stated by me and several others, those people are over-stating DL's so-called preference for buying old / used aircraft.

"Those people" include Mr. Richard Anderson, CEO of Delta himself. And I trust his word on the matter over yours. While it is true that DL will buy new aircraft off the line, they prefer older, tried-and-true models with lower acquisition costs. It's a unique fleet management strategy among the US majors, but it seems to be working very well for them if we are to believe their financial reports.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

Which makes me wonder why UA ordered it. Are they planning on operating it as a primarily transatlantic aircraft, or domestic? Such a short range on such a large aircraft strikes me as something I'd expect to see flown in Japan, not in the US. I'm just looking at the routes it might do. It can do the transatlantic routes from ORD, EWR, and IAD. It can do ORD-HNL and maaaaybe EWR-HNL. But it can't do SFO-FRA or any meaningful transpacific routes. Maybe it will be their replacement for the 77A?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
trex8
Posts: 5442
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Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:03 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):
Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

Which makes me wonder why UA ordered it. Are they planning on operating it as a primarily transatlantic aircraft, or domestic? Such a short range on such a large aircraft strikes me as something I'd expect to see flown in Japan, not in the US. I'm just looking at the routes it might do. It can do the transatlantic routes from ORD, EWR, and IAD. It can do ORD-HNL and maaaaybe EWR-HNL. But it can't do SFO-FRA or any meaningful transpacific routes. Maybe it will be their replacement for the 77A?

Good enough for most us mainland to Hawaii and east coast to Europe. The A35Js may be transpac and us west coast -europe.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:13 am

Quoting trex8 (Reply 146):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 145):Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
It is a sobering experience to see the realistic planning range for a 787-10 is around 4500nm no wind,

If I recall correctly, it was Udvar Hazy who first raised this issue? It appears, on the face of it, that Boeing (by means of design modifications allowing a higher Max. Take-Off Weight, presumably allowing more fuel) later managed to satisfy him that the range will now be 7,000 nms..

"“The 787-10 will be one of the most powerful wide-body aircraft for decades ahead,” ALC Chairman/CEO Steven Udvar-Hazy said. In his opinion, the aircraft will benefit from operational and development experience gained on the -8 and the -9.

"Boeing managed to overcome Hazy’s initial concerns about range by increasing it to 7,000 naut. mi. Hazy said that was addressed by introducing a slightly higher maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 553,000 pounds. Some reinforcements in the wing to body attachment area and on the landing gear were needed to accommodate the increased weight. Engine thrust will also be slightly higher than originally planned. “The range covers 97% of the wide-body city pairs of the world,” Hazy pointed out. Its range will be around 1,500 naut. mi. than the -9."


http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....x_06_18_2013_p0-589320.xml&p=1
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 1014
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:38 am

Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:38 am

Quoting ferpe (Reply 95):
To better understand the choice by LH between the 787-10 and the A350-900 I made a real Payload-Range chart for these two types as it would have been seen by LH evaluation team. It is based on the latest figures re weights and engine performance (thus includes the T1000-TEN and TXWB improved fuel burns) and the real rules that a company like LH must apply.

Terrific analysis. Clearly Boeing is aiming for the medium haul market with the 7810. How does the 789 fit in? Less payload similar range? That fits in with the 789 "too small" statements by LH.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7093
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Lufthansa Said To Buy B779 & A359 Aircraft Part 1

Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:57 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 143):
And the 779 fitting with a foot less wingspan 77E/77W, it is an advantage. It would have been more impressive with a 200 foot folding span.

Not to mention 90m wings on an A380X  

Rgds

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