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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:36 am

Quoting TK787 (Reply 98):
It could be a 17+ hour flight. Even a new generation plane will be "fuel tankering" most of the way; also you might have to have two sets of crews, you might have to serve 3 meals,
Quoting MeCe (Reply 99):
Most important thing is crew issue I agree.

Sorry, I'm not on the same line. I'm not an expert but I suppose that a direct flight will need 4 pilots, 2 crew sets and 3 meal services. If there is a stop, then you will need 3+3 pilots, 2 crew sets and 2+2 meal services, plus the additional accommodation cost of the crew and pilots at the mid-stop. In this regard, a direct flight may cost cheaper. Of course "fuel tankering" is another matter that needs to be considered.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 98):
How could this flight can make money?

The way EK makes money on DXB-LAX route. IST-SYD is just 950mi longer:

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=syd-ist,+syd-dxb,+ist-lax,+dxb-lax
The future is in the skies.
 
MeCe
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:28 am

Quoting TK105 (Reply 100):
The way EK makes money on DXB-LAX route. IST-SYD is just 950mi longer:

I made some checks performance charts from boeing website I need to correct my word "doable". Yes it is, but at what cost...

Ascomparing EK's DXB-LAX route; our 950 mi difference makes nearly 2 hrs of flight time and this means an empty flying tanker. 8000 nm still air range gives only 25.000 kg of payload for 300ER. This means it will be highly payload limited flight. If you add 2nd set of crew and additional catering for that long flight; cabin will be half empty.

I am standing my first opinion, this flight should be non stop but with current aircraft it may turn a suicide
 
northstar80
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 17, 2013 2:34 pm

Quoting MeCe (Reply 101):

How about the 77L?
Would it have been wise if TK bought Air India's 77L's? (I know it is no longer possible, but anyways...)
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 17, 2013 3:04 pm

Quoting Northstar80 (Reply 102):
How about the 77L?

Not Air India's, since they have too many F seats, but looking at DL 77LRs it might be a better match;
45J, 36 Comfort (only 35"pitch, still something better than Y..) and 188Y pax.

Can someone explain how is this going to make money? At what frequency, at what service standards, at what ticket prices?
And maybe LAXintl can chime in about the cargo demand between these two cities.
 
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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:53 pm

I've collected some data from Wiki and prepared the following table with relevant info of suitable aircraft models.

ModelA358A359A351B788B789B781B772LRB77WB778xB779x
3-Class Seating270314350242280323314386353407
Cargo Capacity28 LD336 LD344 LD328 LD336 LD340 LD332 LD344 LD340 LD348 LD3
MTOW259 t298 t308 t228 t251 t251 t348 t352 t315 t344 t
Range9,765mi11,860mi9,700mi9,440mi9,780mi8,060mi10,800mi9,130mi10,910mi9,320mi


Based on this short information, only A359 (perhaps A351), B772LR and B778x are comfortably suitable for IST-SYD direct flight and TK's possible targets.

Considering that B772LR is an unpopular inefficient plane and there is long way to go for B778x to be ready, best aircraft for this mission is A359/A351.

However for short term, leasing B772LR is the only way to go, unless there is a surprise solution with B77W.
The future is in the skies.
 
MeCe
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:21 pm

I heard yesterday TK will obtain 3 more Jet's 777 total of 6. Then convert lease to dry, for operating more flexable. Lets wait and see...

Quoting TK787 (Reply 103):
Not Air India's, since they have too many F seats, but looking at DL 77LRs it might be a better match;
45J, 36 Comfort (only 35"pitch, still something better than Y..) and 188Y pax.

Even this config. there is 500$ fuel cost per passenger at least  
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:56 pm

Quoting MeCe (Reply 105):
TK will obtain 3 more Jet's 777 total of 6.

Really?? That means no more 777s on the 9W fleet. Let's wait and see.

Quoting MeCe (Reply 105):
Even this config. there is 500$ fuel cost per passenger at least

That is why I am asking...

Quoting TK787 (Reply 103):
Can someone explain how is this going to make money? At what frequency, at what service standards, at what ticket prices?

Looking at the chart TK105 posted; TK needs a plane that can do 9500-10,000 miles nonstop without penalties.
-Daily?? Is there enough pax for a daily flight year around? How many frames needed for a nonstop flight? If not Daily, how do you compete with other airlines, especially front of the plane.
-How big of a plane?Under 300 pax, 300 pax or 300-350 pax plane? At what combination TK can sell the most amount of tix. How many classes? Just J and Y? How much cargo between the two cities, how will that affect the aircraft selection?
-Pricing? Since TK can not flood the market with multiple flights to bring demand, it can only get demand by lower prices or higher service standards or combination of them. Lower fares + higher standards = higher costs.
Why would TK get a new type of plane, fly 18+ hours nonstop at higher costs....
It just doesn't make sense to me.
 
thijs1984
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:28 pm

Turkish airlines intends to expand the operations in the Netherlands

Article (sorry Dutch only)
http://luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nl-NL/Art...kish_Airlines_vaker_naar_Nederland

Short summary:
- intended 6th daily rotation IST-AMS
- daily rotation between IST-RTM (instead of 4 times a week announced earlier) with the intention to add a 2nd daily rotation as soon as possible.
- MST is being considdered as new destination.
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:42 am

News in the Turkish media report that the hijacked TK pilots in Lebanon on August 9th could be released within hours.
Fingers crossed, hope this is true.
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:49 pm

First A333 from the new batch is getting ready to join TK fleet;
Different engines, I wonder if any changes to the interiors?? (Comfort??)


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © T.Laurent

 
boun
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 8:07 pm

Is Easyjet leaving Istanbul? Their schedule (both for Basel and London) is zeroed out in March 2014.
 
EY460
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:17 pm

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/19/wo...ld/meast/syria-civil-war-hostages/

Secondo la CNN, i due piloti sono gia' stati liberati.
 
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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:20 pm

I decided to further improve above table. I've added A333 and A388 for comparison purposes.

ModelA333A388A358A359A351B788B789B781B772LRB77WB778xB779x
3-Class Seating295555270314350242280323314386353407
Cargo Capacity (LD3)323628364428364032444048
MTOW (tons)240575259298308228251251348352315344
Range (miles)7,3509,7559,76511,8609,7009,4409,7808,06010,8009,13010,9109,320
MTOW per Seat0.811,040.960.950.880.940.900.781.110.910.890.85
MTOW per (Cargo x 10)0.751.600.930.830.700.810.700.631.090.800.790.72
Range-Seat-Cargo/MTOW9,2268,58910,27412,95411,73110,41311,68910,9909,79110,36212,63311,521
Fuel Capacity (Lt)97,530323,546129,000156,000156,000126,210138,700138,700181,283181,283181,283181,283
Fuel/Range-Seat-Cargo0.04400.06550.04850.04040.04320.05320.04730.05030.05320.04970.04560.0457


I could not find fuel capacity figures for B778x and B779x. I substituted B77W capacity instead. Probably results will be better once actual fuel capacity of these 2 new types are announced.

Range-Seat&Cargo/MTOW figure gives you how much more plane type can go for unit weight per pay load. It gives you idea about how range efficient a plane type is.

Fuel/Range-Seat-Cargo figure gives you idea about possible CASM. However it is not calculated based on actual consumption but using fuel capacity. So it is a general estimation. For B78x series, results may give wrong impression.

I assumed that revenue comes 75% from seats and 25% from cargo. All seat-cargo (pay load) values are combined accordingly ( Seat&Cargo = 0.75 x Seat + 0.25 x (Cargo x 10) ).

Though these are only some rough assumptions, it is still obvious that TK's selection for A333 and B77W for the coming few years is a good decision, especially A333 for medium distance routes. For efficiency and CASM, A359 is at least 10% better than A333 and B779x is again 10% better than B77W.

I do not have any idea why A388 turns out to be an inefficient plane. I was expecting it to have similar results as B77W.

I would not be surprised if TK continues with A359 and B779x duo for their next generation WB fleet. With non-stop flights, TK can reach not only SYD or MEL, but also AKL by using A359. But I do not rule out selection of A351 instead of A359. Also B779x can be perfect plane for N. America and Far East operations.

Obviously, this is a very basic amateur study and experts are welcome to provide feedback for possible mistakes.
The future is in the skies.
 
Avianca
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:17 pm

Quoting miaintl (Reply 59):
But I am sure MIA is a bigger market to Turkey than HAV, CCS, and ATL.

based on what are your assumptions? at least CCS, and complete Venzuela has a very big MidEast comunity, followed by a big Chinese community, traveling most of them constantly back to China...

Cheers
Avianca
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ankaraflyjet
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 2:34 am

Quoting thijs1984 (Reply 107):

KL should reinstate AMS ESB and AMS ADB as soon as possible !!!
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 4:03 pm

Quoting TK105 (Reply 112):
I decided to further improve above table. I've added A333 and A388 for comparison purposes.

Thanks for taking the time.
I think you can go further into detail by using actual TK seat numbers, or even the future 2-Class TK configs, but it all comes down to; "The days of the 19-hour flight are over." as seen in below links;
http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/19/travel...ongest-flight/index.html?hpt=hp_c2
SQ Final A340-500 SIN - LAX Service (by KarelXWB Oct 20 2013 in Civil Aviation)

18+hour flights;
SQ can not make it work between SIN and LAX/EWR.
Can TK make it work between IST and SYD?
 
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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:39 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 115):
"The days of the 19-hour flight are over."

I think there are a number of issues related to subject SQ flights. First of all, these flights are all business class flights with high ticket prices. Due to all business class nature, connecting traffic is also limited. We also know that SQ is loosing grounds to its competitors in hub&spoke business model. Moreover global business ups and downs are highly effecting success of this types of all-business flights. On top of that, increasing global competition is forcing large corporations to make savings and limit such expensive business class tickets. So such a flight is strategically a wrong flight for 2010s.

I think TK should follow the EK way, as I've written here before. TK should focus on connecting traffic and try to make money on Y passenger and cargo in a competitive way. Once you have a solid Y passenger profile supporting frequency, C passenger will follow.

Using internet, today's travelers search and study all alternatives for ULH flights before they make decisions. People try to compromise between cost and comfort (i.e. overall travel duration, connection times, easy connection, better hard product, service quality, safety, etc). But mostly cost has a heavier affect on decisions. Travelers only go for comfort side if price difference is within 100 or lets say max 250 USD. TK must be better on both cost and comfort to make this flight a success.

In this regard, TK should achieve a very competitive cost base in general and specific to this flight. We all know that TK's general cost base is at LCC level and very good compared to its global competitors. To reduce the cost base specific to this flight, TK should check all alternatives, perhaps even evaluate 10 abreast seating for Y. I also think that TK's current Y+ product is a wrong business case and have to be discontinued for such ULH and LH flights.

By the way, here is a new study of CAPA on Turkish Aviation Industry:

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...e-worlds-oldest-cross-roads-133780

As this analysis also supports, it is time for TK to think big and capitalize as much as possible this decade, 2010s. TK has to start SYD/MEL flight(s) ASAP. Perhaps next time, we should also discuss why TK has to start GIG flights ASAP too.
The future is in the skies.
 
Turkish350XWB
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:54 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 115):
"The days of the 19-hour flight are over."

If they are over, why do the manufacturers spend hundreds of millions to develop planes that can do this distance. There has to be a market, right?
 
MeCe
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:19 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 115):
18+hour flights;
SQ can not make it work between SIN and LAX/EWR.
Can TK make it work between IST and SYD?

Correct but as I mentioned before "with current aircraft". Lets wait and see how good is 359... If it is as promised TK should go with non stop, otherwise it likely to be suicide.

Quoting Turkish350XWB (Reply 117):
If they are over, why do the manufacturers spend hundreds of millions to develop planes that can do this distance. There has to be a market, right?

Planes are payload restricted at their max range. You may fly a 9000 nm capable plane to a 8000 nm leg at full payload  
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:21 pm

Car manufacturers build cars that can do 300km, yet how many folks really need that?

Same with planes. For example the A330 can do 10-12hr flights easy, yet average stage length is not even 6.

Just because there is the technical ability does not mean there is an economic justification.

ULH flying in todays revenue and cost environment is highly doubtful.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
trent1000
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:06 am

A TK routing/mileage question.

According to Star A flight search, flight routing CMB/MLE/IST shows no arrival time for the CMB/MLE sector and no mileage for either sector. TK's website does not show information for booking CMB/MLE. Is there some type of restriction on booking this route? Is it only possible to book CMB/IST with no stopover or MLE/IST sector only? Also, Star A shows total one-way mileage at 3905 miles, which seems like a direct route calculation, with actual mileage CMB/MLE/IST at over 4200 miles. Can someone please clarify / comment on this routing? Thanks!
 
umit
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:32 am

Today I tried to book a flight 003 in C , and I am in the waiting list . TK seems to have no problem filling those expensive seats ??
 
stylo777
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:33 am

Quoting trent1000 (Reply 120):

TK has no trafficrights between CMB and MLE. This might lead to the direct route mileage calculation.
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:38 am

Quoting MeCe (Reply 105):
I heard yesterday TK will obtain 3 more Jet's 777 total of 6.

and now this;

TK is looking to lease 10 330/340 ??? http://kokpit.aero/thy-a330-a340-kiralayacak.

If any of this is true I wonder. What is the rush?

Quoting umit (Reply 121):
Today I tried to book a flight 003 in C , and I am in the waiting list .

Also it might have something to do with DL and UA leaving IST.
 
Turkish777X
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:17 pm

TK's next A330 is doing some nice circles over Toulouse. I added an image of flightradar in my profile, since I don't know how to do it here.

How long does it take from flight testing to hand over of the aircraft?
I can't really wait to find out the cabin config of the aircraft.

I also heard from very reliable sources of LH that their premium eco is going to start in mid 2014.
They analyzed the market and TK's failure carefully and will introduce this new class based on their lessons learned from other carriers.

Interesting times ahead..
 
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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:33 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 123):
TK is looking to lease 10 330/340 ?

I wonder if they are considering 343 or 345/346?
The future is in the skies.
 
Turkish777X
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:39 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 123):
and now this;

TK is looking to lease 10 330/340 ??

I only believe it if a public statement by TK has been made.
They were supposed to lease 3 A332 according to their press releases, but nothing added to the fleet so far.
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:13 pm

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 124):
How long does it take from flight testing to hand over of the aircraft?

Usually up to 2 weeks from first flight to delivery and another week or so before revenue flight.

Quoting TK105 (Reply 125):
I wonder if they are considering 343 or 345/346?

Wow, never even considered that option. But this is just for stop gap so anything possible.
I don't think TK can find 333, but yes more 343, 345, 346 are avail. I imagine they will go with 343s, since so much cheaper and use them to free up 333/77W.
But seriously what is the rush, TK will be getting 3 x 332s soon, brand new 333s, 77Ws in a matter of months.

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 126):
3 A332 according to their press releases, but nothing added to the fleet so far.

1 supposed to join this month, 2 more in Nov.
 
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ankaraflyjet
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:14 am

Just walked out of a meeting where Turkish diplomtas in North America announced that TK will commence Istanbul Seattle along side Istanbul Montreal this year. Unfortunately no immediate plans for Istanbul Vancouver or Miami or San Francisco as of yet.

The schedules for Seattle will be released by TK shortly. I have no further details on frequency, a/c etc. as of yet.
 
leftyboarder
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:13 am

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 128):

SEA? With EK in town I would've thought somewhere else. And SFO with UA in town (or even DEN or DFW or DTW) would've been wiser.
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:51 pm

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 128):
TK will commence Istanbul Seattle

Really???
Being a long time Seattle resident, that is hard to believe.
I am sure Baha will be very surprised also.
Gone are the days, when Seattle was considered an outpost, where only Microsoft, Boeing and Weyerhauser existed.
I am talking about, spotting in Seattle 25+ years ago, where 99% of the planes were single aisles, and we spent the whole day waiting for the NorthWest 747s, or the SAS, BA 767s or a Cathay Pacific widebody.
Wow, really hard to believe TK to fly IST-SEA non-stop.
I am sure a friend will be very happy to do a ANC-SEA-IST soon.
Wow, still can't believe. So excited.
 
TurkishWings
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:56 pm

SEA sounds like a good idea... First of all, SEA also serves Canada due to it's proximity to the border and TK will be the second Star Alliance member to serve Europe nonstop (after LH) and will provide better connections to the Middle East than EK... I always thought SFO would be next though...
Coffee - Tea or Me?
 
emrecan
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:24 pm

TK increasing frequency on Pakistan routes.
Will start LHE on 27th of November 3 times weekly. Also ISB will be 4 times weekly as of November 25 and KHI will be daily from 23rd of December.
 
Turkish777X
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:27 pm

Quoting emrecan (Reply 132):
TK increasing frequency on Pakistan routes.
Will start LHE on 27th of November 3 times weekly. Also ISB will be 4 times weekly as of November 25 and KHI will be daily from 23rd of December.

No, please not.

What kind of a market is TK after?! Why not going simply daily on two of the 3 routes and competing more effectively with the ME3? Use a daily A33x and you capture a decent amount of traffic feed from the UK and US. I have the feeling it would very rapidly be able to accomodate a WB service just as fast as Dhaka developed.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 2:46 pm

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 128):
commence Istanbul Seattle

   

Thats a first. I hope not. EK has been struggling at SEA itself, and don't see much upside for TK especially with DL also adding more European flying. Market is saturated.

Though our friend Bahadir would be happy.

Only benefit imo a SEA flight would have is to keep crews happy and other TK employees happy that continue to visit Boeing. Frankly, this idea must have come from them, and not based on commercial realities.

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 133):
What kind of a market is TK after?! Why not going simply daily on two of the 3 routes and competing more effectively with the ME3? Use a daily A33x and you capture a decent amount of traffic feed from the UK and US. I have the feeling it would very rapidly be able to accomodate a WB service just as fast as Dhaka developed.

TK has long wanted to offer additional service point of Lahore. New bilateral only allows 14-weekly flights, so best path is to split frequencies between ISB and LHE.

Anyhow, TK still will compete very well. There is decent flow of local traffic between Pakistan and Turkey, plus TK connects to many dozen markets where the ME3 have no ability to serve.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
MeCe
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:59 pm

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 128):
The schedules for Seattle will be released by TK shortly

So weird...

I hope SFO, least MIA but not SEA. I can not understand what they expect about there 
 
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ankaraflyjet
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:51 pm

Well as expected quite negative comments about SEA IST but I turly believe in the potential for the following reasons;

TK needs to add capacity to West Coast, ideally SFO, SEA and YVR should be added to LAX

SEA will cater for British Columbia too, mainly YVR and Victoria

SEA is a port city and gateway to Alaska like Vancouver and there is an increasing number of Turkish tourists also taking such tours from SEA or YVR;

The sophisticated Turkish toursits no longer are limited in their itinerary with Europe and NY, they stretch further, those that hardly make it to abroad on holiday still try neraby areas or Rome, Paris etc. the classical bunch we all know,

Portland also has some potential for its university, economy etc that also has some Turkey traffic,

Number of American tourists will increase so given all these factors I do not think we should blame TK for launching SEA, come on they are not going to send a 380 there, may be a 330 thrice weekly, let's comment once the schedules are released I propose....

Agreed.....?????
 
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:24 am

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 136):
may be a 330 thrice weekly

I don't think this is doable with a 332. It has to be a 343.

I wish all the best to TK and I really like the idea of a TK bird in Seattle, but....
I lived many years in Seattle and Anchorage, but I don't see Vancouver or Victoria BC or Portland pax adding too much to the demand. They all have one stop flights to most anywhere in the world. Same works for the Turkish pax also. Instead of taking IST-SEA-YVR or IST-SEA-ANC
they can take
IST-YYZ-YVR on AC or
IST-LHR-YVR on BA or
IST-ORD-ANC on TK or one stop with Condor
IST-AMS-PDX on KL

And finally, remember the table "LAXintl" posted few months back about the top US-Turkey Daily O&D markets?
(Unless some drastic changes happened since then)
1) New York-623
11)Seattle-31
23)Portland-9
 
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ankaraflyjet
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 24, 2013 1:50 am

Quoting TK787 (Reply 137):

These statistics are helpful but you can never rely on them solely.

For instance I know that these statistics do not really indicate the potential of ESB or pax from Ankara to any international destination (as there are a lot of pax in Ankara who go to Istanbul and start their journey there) instead of going through the domestic international transfer that is not a smooth one since the Turkish customs policies changed to enter/exit Turkey at the first point of initiation/termination of any international flight. So no more international transit pax from IST to ESB vice versa. Means that you exit IST customs and passport control that is already very very congested and catch your domestic flight. If you are not on TK or a S* member no interline agreemens also (KL, BA, AF, AZ etc.) so you lift your own luggage so not a very pleasant transfer option. IST is a better transfer point for int to int but not for int to dom or dom to int for that reason. Therefore, I am not a true believer in these numbers alone. Same applies to ADB. So instead of counting pax alone the revenue streams should also be looked at for the sales of tickets. TK's second biggest revenue stream globally is from Ankara for instance. Anyhow I do not want to turn Seattle topic into another wider topic now as I believe TK has a hidden agenda to protect ESB and ADB for its own and discourage any potential development there by others. Why do they not allow any one to fly ESB IST for instance ??? The overall global economic downturn and situation of international airlines also support such TK policy for now but that may change eventually.
 
behramjee
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Thu Oct 24, 2013 4:17 am

Quoting Turkish777X (Reply 133):
What kind of a market is TK after?! Why not going simply daily on two of the 3 routes and competing more effectively with the ME3? Use a daily A33x and you capture a decent amount of traffic feed from the UK and US. I have the feeling it would very rapidly be able to accomodate a WB service just as fast as Dhaka developed.

With TK and DAC, there were other factors as well versus what it experiences in KHI:

1. DAC IST nonstop can only be operated with an A330/B777 and not a B737.

2. DAC was launched via KHI thus making it essentially an un-competitive 2 stop product versus the 1 stop offered by the ME3 via their respective hubs

3. DAC is also a high yielding CARGO market for all airlines hence the A330 being deployed here makes perfect commercial sense

4. DAC has less competition to GCC (EK 2 daily + QR 2 daily + 1 daily EY + 5 weekly KU) versus KHI (5 daily EK + 2 daily QR + daily WY + daily EY) hence it can more easily absorb the added capacity versus KHI.

5. DAC IST O&D market segment has grown quite a bit over the past 2 years. For the period SEP-AUG 2010-11, only 7,000 pax flew between the 2 cities where as for the same period in 2012-13, it has more than doubled to 18,000 !
 
MAH4546
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:58 am

Might fly Turkish from Seoul, Tokyo or Osaka this coming February.

What does "operated by 9W" mean on the A340-300s? I thought the 9W planes were only a trio of 77Ws. Also, do the NRT (redeye) and KIX flights use the 332s with substandard J product? TK doesn't seem to distinguish between 332 and 333.
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TurkishWings
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:53 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 140):
What does "operated by 9W" mean on the A340-300s? I thought the 9W planes were only a trio of 77Ws. Also, do the NRT (redeye) and KIX flights use the 332s with substandard J product? TK doesn't seem to distinguish between 332 and 333.

Operated by 9W refers to then 77Ws leased from Jet Airways. All 340s are owned and operated by TK itself. KIX is always flown by a 332 and NRT by Turkish owned 77W. ICN is currently a 333 destination.
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Turkish777X
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:59 pm

Quoting TurkishWings (Reply 141):
Operated by 9W refers to then 77Ws leased from Jet Airways. All 340s are owned and operated by TK itself. KIX is always flown by a 332 and NRT by Turkish owned 77W. ICN is currently a 333 destination.

The new flight out of NRT at 22ish is also going to be operated by A332, at least for now. Might be that they bring another B777 on that route in 2014.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:58 pm

For starters, I'd like to make some comments about SEA.

No one at TK which I have found (incl up to VP levels) is aware of any plans for SEA at the moment. Even the US director of West Coast has heard zero about plans for SEA.

What they say is SFO is "next" on the West Coast, which might be 2014 or not. Its really a matter of aircraft, and if they will launch SFO it needs to be prior to June for the summer peak, as otherwise it will wait till 2015 summer.

Quoting TK787 (Reply 137):
I lived many years in Seattle and Anchorage, but I don't see Vancouver or Victoria BC or Portland pax adding too much to the demand.

  

The US airport Canadians from Vancouver use is BLI (Bellingham) in Washington almost right on the border, not SEA several more hours away.

Driving between Seattle and Vancouver can easily be a 2-hour+ affair plus another hour wait at the border (esp coming into the US).

Vancouver and Seattle are distinct separate markets, and one would be a fool to believe will will generate much traffic cross-border demand.

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 138):
These statistics are helpful but you can never rely on them solely.

Airlines are analytical enterprises. If they don't analyze data, they will be out of business and in worse shape.

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 138):
So instead of counting pax alone the revenue streams should also be looked at for the sales of tickets.

And they do. But to add flights you need bodies. It does not much good to cater to markets that will cause you to send empty flights back and forth, especially for a network carrier like TK that seeks to stimulate traffic flows using its hub.

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 138):
TK's second biggest revenue stream globally is from Ankara for instance.

Well off course, they have about 550 weekly departures. Not surprising.

But a better measure might be looking at that revenue amount compared to Istanbul.
Ankara total revenue earnings were merely 5.7% size of Istanbul revenue as of Q1 2013. ESB is a tiny market when compared that way. Istanbul is simply a massive market, and where the money and traffic is for Turkey.
In comparison JFK a single long-haul market generated about 4% revenue size of Istanbul.
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TK105
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 6:44 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 143):
Ankara total revenue earnings were merely 5.7% size of Istanbul revenue as of Q1 2013.

Sorry, I have to disagree... Once you transfer all Anatolian passengers (incl. Ankara) to Istanbul and then you calculate them as pure IST, and then you compare this again to ESB. This is too much adjusted mathematics! Just like transferring all financial institutes, banks, etc from ANK to IST.

On monday I'll be going to AMS and be back on wednesday. On mondays, there is a direct ESB-AMS flight but unfortunately for wednesday I have to take a return flight via IST. Guess what, my travel agent advised me to take also via IST option to AMS as well because it is 30% cheaper (ESB-AMS_AMS-IST-ESB is 750 Euro, ESB-IST-AMS_AMS-IST-ESB is 530 Euro).

This has to be the other way around but it is not. Because ESB-AMS direct flights are packed and ESB passengers are forced to take via IST option, because IST flights are not that full.

As an IST dom-int transfer hater, obviously I opted for the expensive direct flight option. Moreover I do not have time for IST transfer anyway.

Following week, I'll be visiting DXB, unfortunately again via IST (but on EK for IST-DXB as it is again 30% cheaper compared to TK). I'm eagerly waiting for EK/FZ direct flights to ESB. Of course if TK ever let them start...
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mercure1
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:08 pm

I always find these discussions humorous. People from smaller towns often place such importance on their little slice of the world.

From all my experience (with French airlines), there is no comparison. Unless you are a charter airline bringing people to place like Antalya, no other market in Turkey even comes close to the demand and money Istanbul generates. Population, business, leisure, tourism epicenter is Istanbul, and other cities are simply indeed small fractions compared.

Recently did some work in South America, and good comparison between Turkey might be Brazil. In Brazil the capital is barely connected to much of South America let alone intercontinentaly. Everyone serves the mega Sao Paulo, while very few even look at Brasilia.
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TK787
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:37 pm

Quoting TK105 (Reply 144):
Because ESB-AMS direct flights are packed and ESB passengers are forced to take via IST option, because IST flights are not that full.

I guess this should be expected.
ESB flights are full since there are only 3 weekly flights, whereas IST flights to AMS not that full since there are 35 weekly flights. ( I'm sure many more flights between IST-AMS when you include other airlines than TK)

Quoting TK105 (Reply 144):
EK for IST-DXB as it is again 30% cheaper compared to TK

How could TK fill 3 x daily IST-DXB flights (mostly widebodies) charging 30% more than EK? That answer should be interesting.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 145):
In Brazil the capital is barely connected to much of South America let alone intercontinentaly.

Non-stops to Atlanta, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Lisbon, Miami, Panama City and Paris is "barely connected?"
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Turkish777X
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 7:48 pm

Quoting TK787 (Reply 146):
How could TK fill 3 x daily IST-DXB flights (mostly widebodies) charging 30% more than EK? That answer should be interesting.

It is 2 x daily as far as I am concerned. What I have seen in the past weeks is that only one of the 2 daily flights are at best a widebody.

Mostly its 2 x A321 service with their new business class cabin.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Turkish Aviation October 2013

Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:01 pm

TK105:

For info, a ESB-AMS route via IST would be counted as ESB revenue, not IST.
Just like O&D pax statistics, revenue can be counted on O&D basis regardless of transfer points.

This concept also goes for ESB transfers. For instance a TZX-ESB-XXX itinerary would be counted for Trabzon not Ankara. A good volume of ESB TK traffic is domestic transfers, and not Ankara O&D either.

You guys can try to figure all you want, but the figures don't lie. ESB is a fraction of a market size both in pax demand and revenue generation compared to mega Istanbul.

The 5.7% number I provided means Ankara origin or destination itineraries generated only 5.7% of money IST/SAW origin/desintation itineraries did. Another way to look at it, is that Istanbul is about 17 X larger than Ankara in local revenues for TK.
Even some TK overseas markets were relatively close to generating revenues that Ankara did for TK.
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