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goosebayguy
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:41 pm

AF have bought the right aircraft in the A380 they just simply have not worked out how to make it work like EK has.
 
PRAirbus
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:45 pm

Why didn't AF buy the 748i????? Shame!  
 
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par13del
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:49 pm

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 50):
AF have bought the right aircraft in the A380 they just simply have not worked out how to make it work like EK has.

Routes on which the a/c are deployed and fares charged can always be wrong or need to be tweaked to maximize an a/c potential, no one spends millions purchasing the wrong a/c.
 
a380787
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:50 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 44):
According to AF corporate presentation, CDG is already ahead of FRA and buy a huge market ahead of LHR in connection opportunities. Average daily flights is almost 800, with 52% of all passengers on connecting ittinaries.

I thought FRA connects to more destinations than any european hub ? Or is the AF presentation only talking about frequencies ?
 
peanuts
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:58 pm

The pieces will all fall into place. Give it time.

The best competitive response to EK A380's? Many more 787/A350's...
It surely ain't A380's.
 
airproxx
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 54):
The pieces will all fall into place. Give it time.

The best competitive response to EK A380's? Many more 787/A350's...
It surely ain't A380's.

To me, the best summary of it all... Couldn't agree more.
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fcogafa
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
But we're consistently being told that LHR will only become more and more slot-restricted as time goes on, so BA cannot add more departures.

But if a third runway is approved that problem will disappear (and values of the current slots dive!) ....
 
YULWinterSkies
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:07 pm

Quoting Speedbored (Reply 15):
At the time that Air France ordered the A380, their projections obviously suggested to them that the A380 would be a good fit for their network. Since then a number of events (9/11, GFC, etc.), along with increased competition from the gulf carriers have all contributed to a significantly different market from the one that Air France was predicting 13 years ago. Other carriers have been affected in a similar way.

When the global economy recovers, and traffic picks up, I believe that Air France and other airlines will find the A380 to be a good fit for many routes on their networks.

There was also no AF-KL-AZ-DL-(NW) mergers and joint venture, 3 and only 3 global alliances, yes, times have changed, markets have fragmented, and high yielding business travel demand has taken a big hit.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Air France purchased the jets for the "glory" of France and support French industry.

Right, that's also exactly why they launched the 77W and are now operating about 40 of them!

Getting high capacity planes also is all about competition and market shares... in freshly deregulated EU aviation market, what was AF supposed to do? Sit down and watch LH buy the A380 and take over market shares by flooding AF's main markets by adding more seats?
Note, this is a bit what BA was doing until they decided unsurprisingly that they should join the band wagon.

The A380 was never meant to be AF's workhorse, is not, and will never be. This role is claimed by the 777.

I understand that AF may struggle with it right now, but it remains a great long-term investment in my opinion, however, if AF had THAT much fleet overcapacity, they would have gotten rid of these fuel guzzling antiquated 744s long ago! Note to our Af-bashing Dutch friends: they can always hand them over to KL in the future, after all, KL knows how to make money with planes!   
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Francoflier
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:08 pm

Quoting lhrnue (Reply 46):
So what AF is saying is that they got their homework wrong and bought the wrong aircraft.

I don't know about the bad planning part. The thing is, the world was a different place when they ordered the bird.

I doubt Air France expected then to be in such dire financial straits, and having to focus so much on becoming leaner.
The A380 is hardly the backbone of their fleet. If anything, it's a minor subfleet.

Being an airline that operates an extensive network of international routes to major world hubs, they either have them configured wrong for the yields the seek, or it simply goes to show how much their market has eroded over the last few years.

I suspect EK has a lot to do with it. Ironically, the A380's popularity in the Middle East is hurting the A380's popularity elsewhere.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
harleydriver
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:18 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 15):
The A380s have a sure and secure future at BA and I will bet my shirt they will end up with a significantly more substantial fleet than they currently have on order and option.
Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 11):
BA will also order more frames I am sure of

The July 8th Aviation Week has an article specific to BA's A380 order and how they are done at 12 frames. It mentions AF only ordering 12 as well and LH ordering 17. The title of the article is "British Airways Will Likely Limit A380 Fleet To 12", key word "likely" so I am not going to say they are not going to order more but it appears their B747-400 replacements will be handled by the B777. I don't know if they have buyers remorse or are just happy with the number they ordered for trunk routes and that's it. A 12 frame fleet doesn't scream efficiency when you are stocking a stockroom of parts and the more frames the better.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 25):
BA already has the lion's share of its 747 replacements on order and have stated they aren't interested in changing the size of A380s on order.


Exactly!!!
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airmagnac
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:35 pm

Quoting evomutant (Reply 33):
Great thread. We get some A380 bashing and some boring cliches about the French thrown in too. Happy days!
Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 39):
Another thread:
The A380 will never be a good case, and will dry up in orders and die....
we now have 3 of those on ANet, and 4 regarding the 787 problems...

Another few years and between two rounds of strikes AF will be flying both (dirty) A380s with the dangerous Airbus FBW, and (dirty) 787s with dangerous system failures...
Can't wait for the epic threads to come    bouncy 

[Edited 2013-10-01 14:35:55]
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Stitch
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:41 pm

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 51):
Why didn't AF buy the 748i?

It was not available to order until five years after the A380 was available to order?
 
art
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:06 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 56):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):But we're consistently being told that LHR will only become more and more slot-restricted as time goes on, so BA cannot add more departures.But if a third runway is approved that problem will disappear (and values of the current slots dive!) ...

Any 3rd runway at LHR would likely not be operational for 10-15 years from now, so pretty much the only way to grow one's pax numbers in the next 10-15 years is to operate higher capacity aircraft.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:16 pm

Quoting art (Reply 63):
Any 3rd runway at LHR would likely not be operational for 10-15 years from now, so pretty much the only way to grow one's pax numbers in the next 10-15 years is to operate higher capacity aircraft.

Not all of which needs to be at the top end when you consider 65% of daily movements at LHR were for domestic or European destinations, the vast majority of which are handled by single-aisle aircraft.
 
phxa340
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:19 pm

While I don't believe AF ordered the A380 due to political pressure, I wish folks would stop saying that politics never interfere with Aircraft purchasing and they only purchase based on solely on business needs every time.

Diplomatic cable leaks proved this and further proves that Political inteference works sometimes.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110103-...s-diplomacy-jet-sales-bush-sarkozy

As for the A380 being the glory of France , I would give that distinction to their wine with the A380 in close second  

[Edited 2013-10-01 15:25:47]
 
avek00
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:22 pm

Quoting Speedbored (Reply 15):
I believe that Air France and other airlines will find the A380 to be a good fit for many routes on their networks.

The A380 makes less sense as time goes on for the AF fleet, as:

1. Many potential A380 markets have significantly liberalized their air agreements with France or the EU, lessening the service restrictions that give rise to superjumbo consideration in the first place;

2. AF will become a more cost-efficient airline by choice or by force, lessening the need for a superjumbo that can "absorb" the high cost inefficiencies of the airline over 500+ seats; and

3. Going forward, in light of factors #1 and #2, and in consideration of CDG's ability to accommodate any reasonable set of AF expansion plans, the airline is better off chasing thinner but high-yielding traffic flows with 787s/A330s/A350s over seeking volumes in more robust markets where fares are much more subject to downward competitive pressures.
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alfa164
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:47 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 20):
I’ve posted this before in reference to US carriers, but not for a single hub European operator. The VLA can kill the competition on operating costs per seat. However, it is difficult to manage a network with a limited number of A380s, because there aren’t that many routes that can reliably fill that capacity and don’t have seasonal fluctuations. The VLA may have the lowest CASM, but it has the highest operating costs. That means, that it can hurt RASM in the slow season because that is a lot of seats to fill.

For AF, there certainly are some routes where the VLA capacity is needed like JFK, YUL, etc. However it constrains some flexibility have a small fleet type. Utilization is less and seasonal traffic variations can hurt load factor or revenue. I’m a bit surprised with its single mega hub that Air France has those problems. They are more pronounced in the US market with fragmented hubs and serving international destinations from multiple hubs.

By the way, I used VLA rather than A380 since the exact same argument works for why 747s are not as popular as they once were. The A380 has killer CASM, but must have a route network with the demand and flexibility to reliably fill it. Otherwise it is an expensive lease payment that burns a lot of fuel doing a 777s job. For EK it works great, but it doesn’t work for everyone. UA for example, prefers to operate 2 777s in peak season, and 1 777 in low season. In peak season it is less efficient, but in slow season, it is more efficient. CASM is just as important as fleet flexibility is.

That could be the most intelligent - and accurate - analysis I have seen here. As more and more airlines chase premium passengers - and those premium passengers want frequency over size-of-aircraft - the demand for VLA's has fallen in direct proportion to the demand for 787's and 350's.
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dtw2hyd
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:22 pm

It is evident that Airbus prefers bigger WBs and Boeing prefers smaller WBs. Even with A350 Airbus couldn't resist from going bigger. Two different strategies and both will be successful. In the long run Airbus WBs will be successful on thick and short routes and Boeing WBs on thin and long routes.

Like A333R, Airbus should have a regional version of A380. Boeing's next gen should be of smaller capacity than B787 with same or more legs, also should be cheaper to operate current gen aircraft. Is it possible only A & B would know.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Polot
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:28 pm

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
It is evident that Airbus prefers bigger WBs and Boeing prefers smaller WBs. Even with A350 Airbus couldn't resist from going bigger. Two different strategies and both will be successful. In the long run Airbus WBs will be successful on thick and short routes and Boeing WBs on thin and long routes.

I don't think Airbus and Boeing have a preference either way. A still has the A330 and B will have the 777x. The A350 is bigger because Airbus didn't have a choice-they needed something to compete against the 777 in addition to the 787 as it was clear the A340 wasn't cutting it.
 
sankaps
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:32 am

Quoting wingman (Reply 38):
After 6 straight weeks of incessant Boeing 787 bashing

Discussions of 787's reliability problems and of two customers making their unhappiness with the situation public, and a third unlikely defender through the entire grounding period, AAB of Qatar, also signalling he is losing patience, is not "bashing".

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 47):
And CO, DL, TP, EI and quite a few others. TWA also returned many of their early 747s to Boeing after only 3 or 4 years service to generate cash. Most of them wound up with the Iranian Air Force. Pan Am also had far too many 747s in the 1970s, resulting in low load factors and unprofitable low fares introduced to help fill them.

Yet over the years as air traffic grew, the 747 went on to become a hugely successful aircraft. It all depends on the economics of demand growth vs runway capacity growth, and the balance between the two.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
It is evident that Airbus prefers bigger WBs and Boeing prefers smaller WBs. Even with A350 Airbus couldn't resist from going bigger.

That is a sweeping generalization given until the A380, and except for the A380, Boeing has consistently had larger widebodies, and with the 777-9, continues to plan for 747-size aircraft. There is no "preference", there are just slightly different views of the demand forecast for these aircraft.
 
cmf
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:48 am

Quoting avek00 (Reply 67):
superjumbo that can "absorb" the high cost inefficiencies of the airline over 500+ seats

What high cost inefficiencies are those?

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
It is evident that Airbus prefers bigger WBs and Boeing prefers smaller WBs

Why is Boeing making bigger 777s then??
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fpetrutiu
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:56 am

I think successful backbone operations in between hubs hinges more on frequency than size. The A380 was never built for that.
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ikramerica
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:12 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 71):
Yet over the years as air traffic grew, the 747 went on to become a hugely successful aircraft. It all depends on the economics of demand growth vs runway capacity growth, and the balance between the two.

That was mostly due to the range the 747 offered and restrictive treaties.

What is killing the VLA market is open skies and the range of midsize aircraft.

What keeps VLAs flying at all are the existence of curfews and slots at some of the most important airports in the world.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
dtw2hyd
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:18 am

Quoting Polot (Reply 70):
I don't think Airbus and Boeing have a preference either way. A still has the A330 and B will have the 777x. The A350 is bigger because Airbus didn't have a choice-they needed something to compete against the 777 in addition to the 787 as it was clear the A340 wasn't cutting it.
Quoting sankaps (Reply 71):
That is a sweeping generalization given until the A380, and except for the A380, Boeing has consistently had larger widebodies, and with the 777-9, continues to plan for 747-size aircraft. There is no "preference", there are just slightly different views of the demand forecast for these aircraft.
Quoting cmf (Reply 72):
Why is Boeing making bigger 777s then??

If EK,EY,QR,SQ,LH are the only successful carriers "forever", larger WBs will survive. EK,EY,QR are born and successful because of B777,A332 and A380. At this juncture aircraft technology + location helps them. Otherwise single city countries have no reason to be world's aviation leaders. LH and TK will be there but in couple of decades EK,EY,QR,SQ will loose their leadership.

A350 is designed for ME3 so does B779. Basically low hanging fruits for A & B.

There are 100+ other countries in the world and there are secondary cities in larger countries. They prefer non-stop or one-stop options. Larger hubs + 60% OTP RJs(in USA) are not going to cut forever. Just my 2 cents, time will tell.

Like with BA AUS service, start nibbling into large hub market share, Whale gets beached. Ofcourse A380 has its place particularly in China and Airbus can build a SCLR.



[Edited 2013-10-01 18:36:58]
All posts are just opinions.
 
cmf
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:25 am

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 73):
I think successful backbone operations in between hubs hinges more on frequency than size. The A380 was never built for that.

Explains why airlines typically use their smallest planes on long distance hub to hub routes. Or wait, they typically don't.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
fpetrutiu
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:29 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 76):
Explains why airlines typically use their smallest planes on long distance hub to hub routes. Or wait, they typically don't.

I was not implying that. I was strictly saying that is not the same to have 5 daily 777's or 3 A380's on a route.
Florin
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tortugamon
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:50 am

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 50):
AF have bought the right aircraft in the A380 they just simply have not worked out how to make it work like EK has.

I don't think you change your route structure to fit your aircraft. I think the priority might go the other direction.
.

Quoting harleydriver (Reply 59):
it appears their B747-400 replacements will be handled by the B777

Actually they have more A351s on order than 777s for 744 replacement.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
In the long run Airbus WBs will be successful on thick and short routes and Boeing WBs on thin and long routes.

All of the A350s are built for 8knm+. Even longer than the 788. The 787-10 will be more successfull on short/thick routes than long and thin.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
Like A333R, Airbus should have a regional version of A380.

No they shouldn't. I see offering derated versions for lowered cost but A380s are not built for short routes and if they have to use them for it its because they lose less money doing it rather than making more money. A380 is built for long routes, too much weight to carry only a short distance.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 69):
Boeing's next gen should be of smaller capacity than B787 with same or more legs

No it should not. It will compete with the 787 if they do that. Airbus will not have a 250 seat aircraft for the first time in a long time and the A358 isn't exactly selling well at 270 seats. Airbus won't have much of any current generation aircraft (a poor selling A358) on offer that can fly more than 3,500nm and seat less than 300 in three class configuration. I think its Airbus that has the opportunity in this capacity range as the 788 is overbuilt and in 10 years time the engines won't be enough to get by on. But the 787-9 should be a very tough competitor at the higher capacity range.

Quoting DTW2HYD (Reply 75):
Otherwise single city countries have no reason to be world's aviation leaders.

In a world where borders matter less and less and more open skies agreements are being signed at record rates I completely disagree.

tortugamon
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting sankaps (Reply 71):
Yet over the years as air traffic grew, the 747 went on to become a hugely successful aircraft.

The 747 sold so many on the basis of

1. Range. It could fly routes no other plane could PERIOD. So you buy a 747 you could fly non-stop between cities that the airlines with DC-8/707's are flying 1 or 2 stop. The Tri-jets didn't make the range either for many airlines.

2. prestige. It was a different time, when marketing was everything and price was most often fixed by regulations/collusion. Now where 30 seconds with a computer or smartphone can get you 6 different airlines' pricing.... Its... not so much marketing anymore.

3. Ignorance. Jet Airlines were still pretty young and still learning to navigate the ever changing conditions they operate in.

The 747 likely also KILLED more of its customer airlines than it saved. I really don't think Airbus wants the A380 to follow that example.
 
brilondon
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 56):
But if a third runway is approved that problem will disappear (and values of the current slots dive!) ....


And Sasquatch and the Tooth Fairy will be at the press conference as well. There will never be a third runway at Heathrow while the present political climate is in place in the UK and in London. Even if this is approved by, some miracle, I don't see it happening for at least 20 years.

[Edited 2013-10-01 18:53:02]
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tortugamon
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:32 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 79):
1. Range. It could fly routes no other plane could PERIOD.
astuteman had an excellent thread about this in Tech Ops. Was The 747 Really "bought For Its Range"? (by astuteman Jun 8 2013 in Tech Ops)
He showed that the 747 did have a range advantage during a 16/17 year window of operations (1976-1992). Although more 747s were sold in that window than in all other years combined, he isolates just 460 frames that truly had an advantage over comparable aircraft.

Be your own judge but I think that range mattered for many sales, and it did not matter for other sales (commonality, brand, and lower CASM could have meant success on other routes), and it should not have been purchased for other routes (namely routes undertaken by aircraft purchased after the mid/late 1990s).

Who would have known at that time we would have rising gas prices/September 11/ETOPS/SARS/Recession and other things that made it a liability.

tortugamon
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:51 am

I do think that Air France will emphasize more usage of the 777-300ER, since unlike LHR, CDG was designed to have way less landing slot restrictions. It will even more interesting now what large twinjet will AF turn to next after 2017, the 777-9X or the A350XWB-1000.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:57 am

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 20):
For AF, there certainly are some routes where the VLA capacity is needed like JFK, YUL, etc.

AF didn't use the A380 at YUL even during the peak summer season this year. It has far too many premium seats for the YUL market.
 
cmf
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:19 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 74):
That was mostly due to the range the 747 offered and restrictive treaties.

In some cases it was. In others it wasn't. Remember that the 747 is sized based on airline request and had two passenger size increases, 9 to 10 abreast and extended upper deck. Neither would have happened if range was the driver.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 74):
What is killing the VLA market is open skies and the range of midsize aircraft.

The VLA market isn't dying.

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 74):
What keeps VLAs flying at all are the existence of curfews and slots at some of the most important airports in the world.

What keeps VLAs flying is the need to transport plenty of passengers at preferred times efficiently.

Quoting fpetrutiu (Reply 77):
I was not implying that. I was strictly saying that is not the same to have 5 daily 777's or 3 A380's on a route.

A lot more expensive to have 5 x 777 than 3 x A380. Sometimes the first is better, sometimes the second.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 79):
The 747 likely also KILLED more of its customer airlines than it saved. I really don't think Airbus wants the A380 to follow that example.

Do you have data to support this? Really interested to see it.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:42 am

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 72):
What is killing the VLA market is open skies and the range of midsize aircraft.

It has definitely limited the A380 to trunk routes or routes that can be made into trunk routes thanks to its low CASM.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 44):
According to AF corporate presentation, CDG is already ahead of FRA and buy a huge market ahead of LHR in connection opportunities.

For one airline? Maybe, but FRA is the most connected airport:
Airports With Greatest Number Of Connected Cities (by lightsaber May 14 2012 in Aviation Polls)

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 44):
Orly is the domestic heart of AF network. Without being in ORY, AF would turn over market to people like EasyJet and Ryanair. For most local traffic ORY is much better and central than venturing out to CDG.

But that is the problem. ORY has those domestic connections that would benefit AF international. If ORY were to be closed and merged into an expanded CDG, AF would have many more convenient connections. Frequency would be fabulous.

I think you are missing my main point in that a split hub is missed connections. If AF had those domestic connections, far more of the seats on the A380 would be filled. I'm not saying AF could maintain a large enough subfleet of A380s... but it would be help their profit margin tremendously.

FWIW, I believe the minimum subfleet for long haul aircraft is 17. As AF has 9 with 3 more on order. If AF could expand sufficiently, they could have an economical sized subfleet of A380s.

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AF185
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:57 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 64):
While I don't believe AF ordered the A380 due to political pressure, I wish folks would stop saying that politics never interfere with Aircraft purchasing and they only purchase based on solely on business needs every time.

Totally agree here. Look at how many a/c orders are sealed during political meetings involving US or European officials.
Though these political pressures mostly happen in developing countries in counter parts of investments in the country, let's face it.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 17):
Air France purchased the jets for the "glory" of France and support French industry.

Right.  
I guess they also decided to make the B777 (with GE engines, Rockwell IFE) the flagship of their long haul ops to be part of the American dream

Funny how AF is always linked to some kind of political involvement while LH or BA always take wise and independent decisions on their fleet renewal.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:16 am

Well it is not the fault of the plane, when an airline buys one or two sizes too large.
 
LO231
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:03 am

I thought they're pretty packed on Montréal service....
Got both LO 788 frames already, next LO E95 and 734 BRU-WAW-BRU
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:24 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 83):
FWIW, I believe the minimum subfleet for long haul aircraft is 17.

Can you create the derivation for that, or outline your logic and evidence? It seems awfully specific!
 
art
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 64):
Quoting art (Reply 63):Any 3rd runway at LHR would likely not be operational for 10-15 years from now, so pretty much the only way to grow one's pax numbers in the next 10-15 years is to operate higher capacity aircraft.

Not all of which needs to be at the top end when you consider 65% of daily movements at LHR were for domestic or European destinations, the vast majority of which are handled by single-aisle aircraft.

Your point? Where LHR slots are concerned I don't see that it matters what proportion of aircraft movements are long haul or short haul. A slot is a slot and they have all or nearly all been taken at LHR so the question is, how do you increase long haul pax numbers without increasing the number of pax per flight?
 
Unflug
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:28 am

We are reaching post #100 and sill nobody has provided any further details. I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.

The interview was with chief officer-long-haul passenger activity Bruno Matheu. What he says is

1) Some Airports cannot easily handle the aircraft. For example it took them 3 years to get traffic rights into Shanghai Pudong. They will switch Operation from Shanghai to Singapore.

2) The A350s and 787s are able to reach the same operating costs per seat as the A380, but Air France can offer more frequencies.

3) He expects that, if Air France plans to add more A380s, “it will be not tens of more.”

My opinion regarding

1) Strange. If it took them 3 years to get the rights, why would they give them up now if the loads were OK?

2) Astonishing. If the smaller aircraft reach the same cost per seat obviously they cannot fill the A380, I'd say. The point with frequencies depends on route.

3) No one ever expected AF to order tens or dozens more A380s.

In essence they currently seem to be struggling to fill the aircraft, but don't exclude ordering a couple of more at some time in the future.
 
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SeJoWa
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:03 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.


  

Amen, and thank you for that.
 
art
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:16 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
We are reaching post #100 and sill nobody has provided any further details. I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.

Yes, thanks for doing that.
 
Curiousflyer
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:19 am

The A380 makes sense on busy routes where ticket price makes a difference and/or slots are constrained and/or frequency does not matter.

Typically on CDG-JFK where there is a lot of business traffic it might be hard to fill it up while offering maybe 6-7 flights a day. Now given the length of the flight, it is probably better to meet upcoming growth in demand with larger aircraft than by adding frequency that do not make much of a difference any more. This applies to BA too on the LHR-JFK route, at terminal 7 at JFK the BA boarding calls never stop from 5 PM to 10 PM, they might be better off with less flights and a larger aircraft, or at least upgauging as demand grows rather than adding frequency.

And as was mentioned above, AF may make a killing with the A380 on the Martinique, Guadeloupe and Reunion routes, if that allows them to offer a 3 class service (Y, W, J) with competitive fares and high density in Y. Not sure this would be profitable though. even if they offer 2 flights a day, frequency does not matter there.

Same with ULH flights with lots of vacationers, Frequency does not matter so much so instead of having multiple flights one 380 a day may be enough. That would be Rio de Janeiro and maybe South Africa (French vacationers), and to a lesser extent Tokyo, Beijing and Shanghai (Asian vacationers but also quite a bit of business).
 
PlaneInsomniac
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:20 am

Wow, a few days ago LH with their implicit admission that they're focussing on widebody twins in the mid-term, and now such a statement from AF. It seems even the long-time champions of the VLA concept are beginning to change their mind. (And yes, by "VLA" I do mean four-engine double deckers, i.e., A380 and 748, no matter how silly that term seems today in light of the 777X).

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.

Thank you very much!

  

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
2) The A350s and 787s are able to reach the same operating costs per seat as the A380, but Air France can offer more frequencies.
Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
2) Astonishing. If the smaller aircraft reach the same cost per seat obviously they cannot fill the A380, I'd say. The point with frequencies depends on route.

IMHO nothing astonishing here. If I remember correctly, it has been said for a while that the 787 and A350 will reach about the same per-seat economics as the A380 at comparable load factors. (Some even say they're actually better.) That's the unstoppable march of technological progress.

This is exactly the reason why the business case for VLAs is rapidly imploding.




However, this will not stop the apologists from reiterating that they have concluded based on "pure logic" that the golden age of the VLA is only just dawning, if we only wait and see for yet another year, of course.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
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anfromme
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:32 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
We are reaching post #100 and sill nobody has provided any further details. I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.

Thanks for that, as well as your summary of points from the article.

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
In essence they currently seem to be struggling to fill the aircraft, but don't exclude ordering a couple of more at some time in the future.

Sounds fair enough to me and not really all that surprising.
42
 
art
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:45 am

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 93):
If I remember correctly, it has been said for a while that the 787 and A350 will reach about the same per-seat economics as the A380 at comparable load factors. (Some even say they're actually better.) That's the unstoppable march of technological progress.

If you compare an A380 fitted with 400 seats to an A351 fitted with 400 seats, the A351 will have better per-seat economics. I think you need to compare different aircraft based on equivalent seating breakdowns in terms of space per passenger to get a realistic comparison of economics.
 
PlaneInsomniac
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:06 am

Quoting art (Reply 95):
If you compare an A380 fitted with 400 seats to an A351 fitted with 400 seats, the A351 will have better per-seat economics. I think you need to compare different aircraft based on equivalent seating breakdowns in terms of space per passenger to get a realistic comparison of economics.

Frankly, I do not believe anybody is talking about such skewed comparisons.

The sources I am able to pull up right now state real-life A380 consumption of between 2.9 and 3.1 L/100 km (or "less than 3L", respectively):

http://travel.cnn.com/explorations/l...and-airbus-a380-death-match-152563
http://www.enviro.aero/A380casestudy.aspx
http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/engl...r-vision-values/emirates-a380.aspx

LH says both the 787 and A350 (will) reach 2.9L / 100 km:
http://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/the...eet-development/2-liter-class.html

Obviously, results will vary and only time will tell.

However, the VLA certainly has an uphill battle to fight from here, unless we assume 787/A350/777X figures to be entirely made up. And the recent orders speak for them themselves in this regard.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
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seahawk
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:09 am

cost per seat does not mean yield per seat.
 
PlaneInsomniac
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:14 am

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 96):
cost per seat does not mean yield per seat.

That is true.

However, if the yield of the average VLA seat were so much higher that it could easily compensate for the drawbacks of the VLA (e.g., reduced flexibility), airlines would be ordering them in droves.

They are not. In fact, we see more and more airlines starting to turn their backs on the VLA.

So either these airlines are all bad at math, or the VLA concept is beginning to become obsolete.
Am I cured? Slept 5 hours on last long-haul flight...
 
Azure
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RE: Air France: Airbus A380 Not A Good Fit For Network

Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:30 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
We are reaching post #100 and sill nobody has provided any further details. I got a bit annoyed and purchased a subscription to read the article quoted in the opening post.

I too am annoyed by all these comments based only on the title of an article, leading to surprising theories on AF management or on the future of the A380 ...
Thank you for your summary. Maybe the OP should have done it first.




Quoting Unflug (Reply 89):
1) Some Airports cannot easily handle the aircraft. For example it took them 3 years to get traffic rights into Shanghai Pudong. They will switch Operation from Shanghai to Singapore.

2) The A350s and 787s are able to reach the same operating costs per seat as the A380, but Air France can offer more frequencies.

3) He expects that, if Air France plans to add more A380s, “it will be not tens of more.”

My opinion regarding

1) Strange. If it took them 3 years to get the rights, why would they give them up now if the loads were OK?

2) Astonishing. If the smaller aircraft reach the same cost per seat obviously they cannot fill the A380, I'd say. The point with frequencies depends on route.

3) No one ever expected AF to order tens or dozens more A380s.

In essence they currently seem to be struggling to fill the aircraft, but don't exclude ordering a couple of more at some time in the future.

My opinion on these 3 points :

(1) Some Airports cannot easily handle the aircraft. Some AF strongholds are not A380-ready yet, or have not been until very recently. MEX is an example, GRU or ABJ as well.
As for PVG, I think something got lost in translation! AF switched A380 operation from SIN to PVG two weeks ago, they do not intend to reverse right now.
The traffic rights issue should not be overlooked. Reportedly AF wanted daily A380 ops to PVG, they have obtained rights for 3x weekly only. The current bilateral agreement does not allow them to send the A380 to PEK either...

(2) Not a surprise, we are talking of operating costs per seat. I fail to read any indications on the loads of their A380s here. With identical load factors, and other things being equal, the unit cost per seat of the A380 is not lower than the new generation twins. But it can carry more pax at the preferred timing or at slot constraint airports.
However I am not surprised that AF does not consider building its network solely on the A380s...No airline has done so. AF needs flexibility and only a limited number of routes from Europe can support the A380 all year long.

(3) Basically he is not ruling out to order more A380s in the future which clearly indicates there is a business case for the A380 in the AF network.
Many destinations served by daily or several daily 77Ws are likely candidates for future A380 expansion, subject to traffic rights / airport configuration : HKG, PEK, GRU, GIG, ABJ just to name a few, notwithstanding the leisure destinations served with the high density 468-seater 77Ws (PTP, FDF, RUN, MRU, BKK).




Quoting lightsaber (Reply 83):
Quoting mercure1 (Reply 44):
According to AF corporate presentation, CDG is already ahead of FRA and buy a huge market ahead of LHR in connection opportunities.

For one airline? Maybe, but FRA is the most connected airport:
Airports With Greatest Number Of Connected Cities (by lightsaber May 14 2012 in Aviation Polls)

Your methodology is not 100% satisfying as it does not take into consideration the frequencies at each hub. The number of destinations is irrelevant to determine connectivity at one given airport. Frequencies do matter. You know this as you further state :




Quoting lightsaber (Reply 83):
If ORY were to be closed and merged into an expanded CDG, AF would have many more convenient connections. Frequency would be fabulous.

See, we agree on frequency  
But how serious are you about closing ORY ? Do you mean closing the airport or AF axing all ops at the airport ? Well, neither is going to happen anytime soon I am afraid. ORY is Paris favorite airport due its location. In fact, AF plans to downsize ops at ORY and use the freed slots for Transavia.

[Edited 2013-10-02 03:14:54]

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