Lufthansa Cancelled 3 A380 Orders

almehairiauh · Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:39 am

LH cancelled 3 airbus A380 bringing a total of 14
LH did that after it order its A350 aircrafts from Airbus which are more efficient than the A380

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...hansa-cuts-back-a380-order-391342/

TC957 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:52 am

Ooh, that's a bummer....I thought it was announced that they were intending on getting two more when the recent A359/B779 order was confirmed.

Stitch · Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:55 am

Already being discussed as part of this thread - Lufthansa Orders 34 B779s + 25 A359s Part 2 (by wilco737 Sep 19 2013 in Civil Aviation)

LH422 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:17 am

I vote for keeping this thread alive or changing the topic of the previous thread to mention the three cancellation. It is significant news. Why did Lufthansa change its strategy after having ordered two more planes two years ago?

Stitch · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:19 am

Quoting LH422 (Reply 3):
Why did Lufthansa change its strategy after having ordered two more planes two years ago?

They have stated they intend to be far more conservative in their fleet purchasing decisions and have reduced their planned fleet by 20% (from ~500 planes to ~400).

IMO, they feel that the number of A380-800s and 747-8s they have on hand and on order are sufficient for that need and the focus moving forward is on smaller aircraft (777-9 and A350-900) to replace the A340-600 and A340-300.

B747forever · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:23 am

First AF says the A380 doesnt fit in their network, and now LH cancels 3 A380s. Seems that European carriers struggle to operate the A380 efficiently. This makes the VS order look more dubious by the day.

sabenapilot · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:28 am

Quoting almehairiauh (Thread starter):
LH did that after it order its A350 aircrafts from Airbus which are more efficient than the A380

actually, that's nowhere stated, so I guess it's just your own appreciation: the real reason is given by stitch:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
They have stated they intend to be far more conservative in their fleet purchasing decisions and have reduced their planned fleet by 20% (from ~500 planes to ~400).

Furthermore, it has meanwhile come out via an interview in a German newspaper (sorry, can't find the link anymore) that these were previously firmed options, which still had to be given a firm delivery date. Since LH wants to be more conservative, it couldn't give Airbus a firm date for the last 3 of their orders, so they were dropped.

It could very well mean that Airbus has been pushing LH hard over getting a firm date from them, because they may need as much early delivery slots on their production line as they can get for a certain customer... Or did I say too much now?

speedbird128 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:34 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 5):
This makes the VS order look more dubious by the day.

*That* order has been dubious for a very very long time...

Quoting B747forever (Reply 5):
Seems that European carriers struggle to operate the A380 efficiently

Markets change - A lot has happened with the economy since the launch of the A3XX.

Quoting TC957 (Reply 1):
I thought it was announced that they were intending on getting two more

That's exactly what I thought - however as I wrote above, markets change fast. There seems to be a lot of financial unsettlement in the world and that is a major driving force... I am sure that LH will add more 380's, however not right now...

Quoting LH422 (Reply 3):
I vote for keeping this thread alive or changing the topic of the previous thread to mention the three cancellation. It is significant news.

I agree...

Luxair · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:37 am

I think we should all agree here that this is bad news for Airbus and the A380 at least regarding European orders. Well let's hope that Middle East and Asian carriers don't leave the boat if so than the A380 is a dead bird.

Asiaflyer · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:48 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
They have stated they intend to be far more conservative in their fleet purchasing decisions and have reduced their planned fleet by 20% (from ~500 planes to ~400).

Quoting Luxair (Reply 8):
I think we should all agree here that this is bad news for Airbus and the A380 at least regarding European orders. Well let's hope that Middle East and Asian carriers don't leave the boat if so than the A380 is a dead bird.

I think the massive competition from ME carriers, particularly EK, is taking its toll on the Euro-Asia routes for European carriers. Both AF and LH had big plans to fly A380 on Asian trunk routes at the time they ordered it, but the competitive landscape has changed beyond what they expected.

astuteman · Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:58 am

Quoting Luxair (Reply 8):
I think we should all agree here that this is bad news for Airbus and the A380 at least regarding European orders.

What if we don't?

Rgds

art · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:15 am

Quoting Luxair (Reply 8):
I think we should all agree here that this is bad news for Airbus and the A380 at least regarding European orders. Well let's hope that Middle East and Asian carriers don't leave the boat if so than the A380 is a dead bird.

What will we say if there is an A380 order at the Dubai air show? The A380 sales program is suddenly healthy again? I don't think that the prospects for this aircraft are contngent on how many are ordered over the course of a year.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 9):
Both AF and LH had big plans to fly A380 on Asian trunk routes at the time they ordered it, but the competitive landscape has changed beyond what they expected.

Carriers like EK have taken a bigger slice of the market than AF, LH (and many others) anticipated?

columba · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:17 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 6):
can get for a certain customer... Or did I say too much now?

Really, Luxair wants to order the A380

Joke aside I do see this is in the light of their latest order and the focus on more smaller aircraft. 34 777-9X plus 30 options as well the possibilty of changing their options for the A350-900 into -1000s will give them a large fleet of big twins.

Also this shows that the cancelation of one of their 747-8Is and not placing an additional order does not mean they are not pleased with the aircraft but that they are conservative in their market forecast. Both Airbus and Boeing have a hard time getting customers for their VLAs and even if they find a customer it is hard to keep them.

Stitch · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:19 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 9):
I think the massive competition from ME carriers, particularly EK, is taking its toll on the Euro-Asia routes for European carriers. Both AF and LH had big plans to fly A380 on Asian trunk routes at the time they ordered it, but the competitive landscape has changed beyond what they expected.

EK's operating economics should be lower to Asia from the EU thanks to the stop in DXB (less fuel burned and more payload carried per segment than a non-stop). How does that translate into fares? Is EK appreciably cheaper (especially in Business and Economy) compared to LH and AF?

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 6):
It could very well mean that Airbus has been pushing LH hard over getting a firm date from them, because they may need as much early delivery slots on their production line as they can get for a certain customer... Or did I say too much now?

Quoting columba (Reply 12):
Really, Luxair wants to order the A380.

I'm guessing another large top-up from EK. Airbus have said they have open slots in 2015, but only for existing customers (due to needing to be able to use existing configurations).

[Edited 2013-10-07 01:21:55]

B747forever · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:26 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 10):

Quoting Luxair (Reply 8):
I think we should all agree here that this is bad news for Airbus and the A380 at least regarding European orders.

What if we don't?

What do you then call it? A success for the A380 program when LH cancels 3 A380s and AF struggles with the airplane?

EK413 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:29 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 5):
First AF says the A380 doesnt fit in their network, and now LH cancels 3 A380s. Seems that European carriers struggle to operate the A380 efficiently. This makes the VS order look more dubious by the day.

Same goes for QFs 8 x A380 deferrals which I doubt will materialise from 2016.

EK8413

Stitch · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:32 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 14):
What do you then call it? A success for the A380 program when LH cancels 3 A380s and AF struggles with the airplane?

LH cancelled three options that they had to convert to firm orders at the time or cancel. That changes the dynamics a bit compared to if they had been three firm orders. And they're still taking all of their firm orders on schedule (no delayed deliveries have been requested).

As for AF, like LH they are taking all of their planes on firm order on schedule.

B747forever · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:36 am

Quoting EK413 (Reply 15):
Same goes for QFs 8 x A380 deferrals which I doubt will materialise from 2016.

How about MH, TG and CZ? I believe that they, just like AF, struggle to operate the airplane profitably.

astuteman · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:37 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 14):
What do you then call it?

I don't call it anything particularly.
But one thing's for certain. I won't be calling it anything just because you and Luxair tell us we ALL have to agree to do so

I'll make my own mind up thankyou

Asiaflyer · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:41 am

Quoting art (Reply 11):
Carriers like EK have taken a bigger slice of the market than AF, LH (and many others) anticipated?

By the time AF ordered their first 10 A380 in July 2000, EK had at that time placed an order for 5 A380.
When LH ordered their 15 A380 in Dec 2001, EK had firm orders for 20 A380.
I dont think any of them could imagine EK to place orders for 90 frames!!! Wow!

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:41 am

Quoting columba (Reply 12):
Joke aside I do see this is in the light of their latest order and the focus on more smaller aircraft. 34 777-9X plus 30 options as well the possibilty of changing their options for the A350-900 into -1000s will give them a large fleet of big twins.

Additionally, Lufthansa latest order for A350 and 777X aircraft are for replacement of the A340/744 fleet while the A380s were bought for replacement and growth. Clearly Lufthansa is currently focusing on replacement and less on growth.

sabenapilot · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:50 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 19):
I dont think any of them could imagine EK to place orders for 90 frames!!!

Wait a bit more and you'll understand why this cut isn't remotely worrying to Airbus at all.

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:50 am

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 21):
Wait a bit more and you'll understand why this cut isn't remotely worrying to Airbus at all.

More early delivery slots for EK

Asiaflyer · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:52 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
LH cancelled three options that they had to convert to firm orders at the time or cancel. That changes the dynamics a bit compared to if they had been three firm orders. And they're still taking all of their firm orders on schedule (no delayed deliveries have been requested).

Not to nitpick, but LH placed firm order for 15 A380 in 2001. Looks to me like one of those has now been cancelled as LH now has order for only 14 in total. What am I missing?

B747forever · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
LH cancelled three options that they had to convert to firm orders at the time or cancel. That changes the dynamics a bit compared to if they had been three firm orders.

Sure, it would have been a bigger blow for Airbus if it was a firmed order, but nevertheless Airbus just lost out on an order of three A380s. Also, this should mean that LH does not plan to take any more A380s than they already have firmed, which doesnt bode well for the A380 sales in Europe.

Does Airbus have any hopes of selling more A380s in Europe? It seems that the only possibility is an top up order by BA.

sturmovik · Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:54 am

Also, wasn't Tim Clark on record within the last fortnight saying that he'd buy 180 A380s if he had space at DXB?

parapente · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:03 am

Re Above coment.
I think the massive competition from ME carriers, particularly EK, is taking its toll on the Euro-Asia routes for European carriers. Both AF and LH had big plans to fly A380 on Asian trunk routes at the time they ordered it, but the competitive landscape has changed beyond what they expected.

Agreed. As for comment....

Wait a bit more and you'll understand why this cut isn't remotely worrying to Airbus at all.

-And I guess thats the other half of it (EK).

You only have to spend an hour or two in Dubai airport meeting Americans/Australians/South Africans/Europeans/Asians - and all switching from one continent to another smoothly,efficiently (and cheaper too) in phenominal planes at a phenominal airport to see the signs - no tea leaves necessary!

Yes Airbus will sell a load more 380's but with how much profit when you only have one potental buyer?

I can see the A380 getting to 300 sales in its present config but with the a351 and b779 on the horizon I think that they will need to launch an improved version after that to keep their 'efficiency nose' ahead of the new competition.

art · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:09 am

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 25):
Also, wasn't Tim Clark on record within the last fortnight saying that he'd buy 180 A380s if he had space at DXB?

Sounds like it's time for Airbus to go into the airport extension business.

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:12 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 24):
Also, this should mean that LH does not plan to take any more A380s than they already have firmed, which doesnt bode well for the A380 sales in Europe.

We don't know that. In the beginning of the year, the plan was to order 2 more. Fleet plans change very often; the A380 was mainly designed for growth, LH might rethink their flight plans again when traffic grows a bit faster again.

almehairiauh · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:25 am

Quoting sturmovik (Reply 25):
Also, wasn't Tim Clark on record within the last fortnight saying that he'd buy 180 A380s if he had space at DXB?

thats wrong they said to add 30 more bringing a total or 120 A380 not 180

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rjumbos-for-network-expansion.html

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:29 am

Quoting almehairiauh (Reply 29):
thats wrong they said to add 30 more bringing a total or 120 A380 not 180

Plans have changed since January 2013.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ng-engine-technology-clark-390796/

> Emirates plans to start replacing its fleet of A380s by new A380s starting from 2020, so there is an "automatic replacement" requirement for another 90 A380s (on top of the 90 currently ordered)
> In addition, if Dubai's airport constraints could be resolved, Emirates could take "many more", possibly doubling its fleet size

EK413 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:30 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 17):

Quoting EK413 (Reply 15):
Same goes for QFs 8 x A380 deferrals which I doubt will materialise from 2016.

How about MH, TG and CZ? I believe that they, just like AF, struggle to operate the airplane profitably.

I never stated the A380 isn't profitable for QF. Just seems to me the deferral goes deeper than a struggling QFI & perhaps there are intensions to convert their order to a variant which slots between the B787 / B744 (replacement) / A380.

EK8413

chieft · Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:42 am

The cancellations, or better non-confirmation, of options for the A380 by LH is also a message Airbus does not like. A message into the market.

Possibly it is also the beginning of a strategy change of LH, away from hub and spoke?

It could be the formula against the ME competition.

cmf · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:04 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
EK's operating economics should be lower to Asia from the EU thanks to the stop in DXB (less fuel burned and more payload carried per segment than a non-stop).

How much fuel do they actually save after the 15% or so longer flight via DXB?

Quoting B747forever (Reply 14):
What do you then call it? A success for the A380 program when LH cancels 3 A380s and AF struggles with the airplane?

Business.

JimJupiter · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:12 am

Quoting chieft (Reply 32):
Possibly it is also the beginning of a strategy change of LH, away from hub and spoke?

With A350s and B777s? Doubtful, imho.

On another matter: Should the thread title not say "options"? There are always people who don't read anything but the title before posting...

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:15 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 34):
On another matter: Should the thread title not say "options"? There are always people who don't read anything but the title before posting...

And not just a few people, look at how quick the AF A380 thread reached almost 100 posts while nobody knew what was said behind the paid wall.

idlewildchild · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:51 am

So LH buys some Boeing and JL buys some AB. Who says the world can't change?

KarelXWB · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:52 am

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 36):
So LH buys some Boeing and JL buys some AB.

Lufthansa bought many Boeing aircraft before.

JimJupiter · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:53 am

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 36):
So LH buys some Boeing

True. That's a first.

EPA001 · Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
LH cancelled three options that they had to convert to firm orders at the time or cancel. That changes the dynamics a bit compared to if they had been three firm orders. And they're still taking all of their firm orders on schedule (no delayed deliveries have been requested).

It does, but many don't want to read what is actually going on when an A380 is the subject.

.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
Additionally, Lufthansa latest order for A350 and 777X aircraft are for replacement of the A340/744 fleet while the A380s were bought for replacement and growth. Clearly Lufthansa is currently focusing on replacement and less on growth.

Indeed they are, and they are still increasing the total seats they have on offer with all the rest of the A380's, B748i's coming in. And a few years later we will see the A350 and B777-9 coming in which will also give LH a higher total seat count on offer compared to the A340's they will be replacing. And LH is taking full benefit of the latest increases in efficiency and environmental lower loads of their fleet.

.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 35):
And not just a few people, look at how quick the AF A380 thread reached almost 100 posts while nobody knew what was said behind the paid wall.

Well, again it is the A380 which is the subject of the discussion. Many seem to lose all their normal brain capabilities when the A380 is discussed. It is sad, but it has been for many years, and still is a truth on A-net.

.

fun2fly · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:01 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 5):
First AF says the A380 doesnt fit in their network, and now LH cancels 3 A380s.

What is the end # of orders for the European carriers?

LH 14

BA ?

AF ?

VS ?

Seems like in the end, this plane is really for EK especially since the freighter was scratched.

Motorhussy · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:03 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 34):
On another matter: Should the thread title not say "options"? There are always people who don't read anything but the title before posting...

Yes, the title should read...

LH Allows 3 x A380 Purchase Options to Lapse

They didn't cancel anything, rather they chose not to exercise their optional right to purchase three new A380's - by a specified date, at a specific price. Currently the headline of this thread is misleading if not mischievous.

Regards
MH

RayChuang · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:04 am

LH--unlike BA--does not have significant landing slot issues at FRA and MUC. As such, the 777-9X fills the need for higher-capacity long-range for the airline better than the A380, which is still a pretty expensive plane to fly even with a full pax/cargo load.

sturmovik · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:08 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 30):
Plans have changed since January 2013.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...0796/

Thanks Karel, that is indeed the link I had read.

scouseflyer · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:09 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 41):
Yes, the title should read...

LH Allows 3 x A380 Purchase Options to Lapse

They didn't cancel anything, rather they chose not to exercise their optional right to purchase three new A380's - by a specified date, at a specific price. Currently the headline of this thread is misleading if not mischievous.

Regards
MH

Sadly if you look at the Airbus O&D spreadsheet is has A380 sales for this year as -3 and LH total orders for the bird as 14:

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/back...013_-_orders_deliveries_Airbus.xls

B747forever · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:09 am

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 40):

What is the end # of orders for the European carriers?

LH 14

BA ?

AF ?

VS ?

Seems like in the end,

Yes, it looks pretty bad for A380 sales in Europe. I doubt you will ever see VS take delivery of the A380s.

LH 14
BA 12
AF 12 (not sure though)
VS 6

chieft · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:13 am

Quoting JimJupiter (Reply 34):
With A350s and B777s? Doubtful, imho.

Well, it is a difference to fill 526 seats or about 350.

There are areas in Germany, beyond Munich and Frankfurt, where you could fill 350 seats on certain routes.

cmf · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:18 am

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 40):
What is the end # of orders for the European carriers?

It will be many moons before we know the end number

JimJupiter · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:24 am

Quoting chieft (Reply 46):
Well, it is a difference to fill 526 seats or about 350.

There are areas in Germany, beyond Munich and Frankfurt, where you could fill 350 seats on certain routes.

Sure. But LH's recent aircraft orders are meant to replace the current A340 and B744 fleet. Whether they ordered 2 additional A380s, or let 3 options expire, doesn't change the fleet structure very much. In other words: If they really plan to offer more long haul connections from DUS, STR, HAM or BER, they can (or can't) do it as well with the current fleet. Give or take a pair of 380s. The fact that Germanwings is going to do all non hub flying is another strong indicator that more long haul from the "provincial" airports is not in the cards. Sadly...

art · Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:31 am

Quoting cmf (Reply 47):
Quoting fun2fly (Reply 40):
What is the end # of orders for the European carriers?

It will be many moons before we know the end number

(a) how many topup orders from existing users?
(b) how many replacement orders post 2022-25?

To me (a) general growth in LH hub-hub market (b) a possible refresh (c) a possible stretch will all work towards extending A380 orders and production.

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