ckfred
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:36 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 4):
A remarkable breakthrough for Airbus. I wonder how much this has to do with all the 787 problems the Japanese carriers have had.

I saw an interview on CNBC with an executive from Airbus. This question was posed to him. He said the 787 issues had nothing to do with the order, because discussions started long before the 787 battery fire at BOS.

Still, one has to wonder why JAL decided to go with the A350, apparently as the replacement for the 777. Considering that Boeing is updating the 777, it would be more practical to replace your current 777s with updated versions.

Further, Phil LeBeau of CNBC pointed out that Boeing makes an effort to have Japanese subs, in order to keep the Japanese carriers as customers. The 787 batteries, among other parts are made in Japan, and the 777-X wings are likely to be made at a Japanese subcontractor.
 
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Aesma
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:44 pm

Congrats Airbus and JAL, I'll be sharing a beer with an Airbus engineer in a couple of days !

Next, ANA 
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Tigerguy
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:01 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 210):

No worries. I do try my best, but a post slips through the cracks or over my head every now and then. I suppose it didn't help that I was at work and should have been working instead of browsing the threads...   

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
I saw an interview on CNBC with an executive from Airbus. This question was posed to him. He said the 787 issues had nothing to do with the order, because discussions started long before the 787 battery fire at BOS.

I've not seen the interview, so I can't speak much to that. However, even though they had their eyes on JL before BOS, the EIS delays were certainly in the headlines. Of course, the continuing news couldn't have been the best of all possible situations, either. In the end, I believe they made a good business decision based on what they wanted and what was being offered.
Good night, and keep watching the skis. Uh, skies.
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:33 pm

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
Still, one has to wonder why JAL decided to go with the A350, apparently as the replacement for the 777. Considering that Boeing is updating the 777, it would be more practical to replace your current 777s with updated versions.

IMO, it is because the updated 777s offer performance and capacity JL does not need. On the other hand, the A350-1000 is a direct drop-in-replacement for their 777-300s and 777-300ERs with a ~20% lower operating cost.

[Edited 2013-10-07 16:34:01]
 
jfk777
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:00 am

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 212):
Yes, of course. All these almost 10,000 aircrafts they built and sold since then, this was just distraction. In reality, they were sitting around the telephone, eating frogs and drinking too much red wine, just waiting for that call from Tokyo.

Funny, Leahy loves Sushi, sake and goes to Japan a lot. Doesn't speak French, even though he lives in Toulouse and hates Frog Legs if you really wanted to know. And he is a yank to boot.
 
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zeke
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:00 am

I think this order should be viewed by the way airlines select aircraft, the delays that have been attributed to the 787 do not really function in the numbers when looking at the fleet planning.

The current 787s being operated in the Japan are a lot smaller than either a 773/77W or the A350-1000. If they have a fleet planning requirement for something that you can order 30+ A350-1000s for, 787s will not cut it. They are too small, delays to not come into it.

This would be like trying to question why an airlines did not order 737s when they ordered 787s, if they are ordering 787s they have the demand for a 787 mission profile and capacity.

There is a cutover in the 787-10 with the 777-200/A330-300 and A350-800 with similar sized aircraft that can be interchangeable depending on the sector lengths and airline config. When there is a demand for for greater capacity, the 787 and A350-1000 do not compete.

Anyone not acknowledging the capacity difference between the 787 and A350-1000 is just throwing red herrings into the discussion. Both JAL and Airbus have stated in quotes above the decision had nothing to do with the 787 delays.

My real question is with the 777X, that is the alternative to the A350-1000 for that capacity and mission profile. Why was that not selected ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:03 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 219):
My real question is with the 777X, that is the alternative to the A350-1000 for that capacity and mission profile. Why was that not selected?

Too much performance with the 777-8, too much capacity with the 777-9 and too long until EIS for both, IMO.
 
AvObserver
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:06 am

All other legitimate considerations aside, I definitely think JAL was also sending Boeing a message with this order and I think that's good because I believe BCA needed a wake up call. They need the lesson reiterated that they can't ever count on any carrier as a sure customer forever and foist a less than exemplerary product on them. Boeing needs to get its act together on the 787-8 issues for certain and ensure they don't persist into the other variants. While there's no guarantee the A350 won't have some issues too, Airbus's more conservative approach on design and assembly will likely mimimize those teething issues. As high as I was on the 787, Boeing made some seriously bad choices in farming out its production and needed a shock to its system with a previously ironclad loyal customer spurning it for a competitor's offering. Now, the A350 is likely a better fit for this order but it's still worthwhile that Boeing got this jolt as a reminder to not go down the same road again. This could be a good thing for BCA, in the long run, a good kick in the pants can often prevent a repeat of past mistakes. So in this case, I heartily join many of you in wishing Airbus congratulations for making this breakthrough and hoping that Boeing has indeed learned something from the loss of this order that it won't forget anytime soon. Cheers!
 
Asiaflyer
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:27 am

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 212):
Fantastic times: LH orders the 777 and JL orders some Airbus.


I love it!   

Quoting Stitch (Reply 216):
IMO, it is because the updated 777s offer performance and capacity JL does not need. On the other hand, the A350-1000 is a direct drop-in-replacement for their 777-300s and 777-300ERs with a ~20% lower operating cost.


Exactly, and funny enough Boeing covers the 767,A330 and lower end of 777 market with 787, while 777X covers the market just above current 777 territory. Inbetween Airbus seems to have found a very nice sweet spot with A350.
Airlines must be happy. There has never been such a great offering from the two manufacturers as now.
 
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zeke
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 220):
Too much performance with the 777-8, too much capacity with the 777-9 and too long until EIS for both, IMO.

I think the EIS issues is a non starter, it is only a couple of years between the -X and A350-1000, they are only looking for 2019 deliveries. The 787-10 and A350-900 are both available in 2019.

Are the A350-900s regional or long range weights ?

Both the 777X and A350-1000 has too much range and performance for what JAL needs. The A350-900 may provide better range/payload for JAL than what the 787-10 could provide. Is this the first time the 787-10 lost against the A350-900 ? Did Boeing even offer it ? If not, why not ? What key selection criteria did it not fulfill ?

On face value there is no reason why the 787-10 could not have been ordered to replace the 777-200s for most JAL routes, instead of 18 A350-900s, likewise the 777X could have been ordered to replace the 773/77W. Thus saving them the introduction of a new type.

There MUST be some compelling reasons to move away from a fleet of 45+ 777, and with a large 787 order book. When someone can explain how they plan on configuring the aircraft, I think the answers as to why they orders worked out the way they have will come to light.

The additional 25 A350 options are also interesting, that keeps the door open for the 787-10 in my view.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 12:50 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
I think the EIS issues is a non starter, it is only a couple of years between the -X and A350-1000, they are only looking for 2019 deliveries.

Assuming Boeing can get the 777X into service in 2020 and has the slots available in 2020...



Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
Are the A350-900s regional or long range weights?

I do not believe such information has been released. I could see the A350-900R being used to replace the ~380-seat domestic 777-200s with 10-abreast Economy seating and the A350-900 with 9-abreast Economy seating replacing the 302-seat (regional?) 777-200ERs.

Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
Both the 777X and A350-1000 has too much range and performance for what JAL needs.

Yes they are, but the A350-1000 is a drop-in 1:1 replacement for their 777-300s and 777-300ERs in terms of capacity. The 777-8 is smaller (unless they go 10-abreast) and the 777-9 is larger.


Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
The A350-900 may provide better range/payload for JAL than what the 787-10 could provide.

If the A350-900s will be used on long-haul missions, that is true. Wikipedia implies that their 20 787-9s will be heavily biased towards Business Class and Premium Economy, which if correct makes me believe the 787-9 will be at least a, if not the, backbone of the long-haul medium-sized widebody fleet.


Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
When someone can explain how they plan on configuring the aircraft, I think the answers as to why they orders worked out the way they have will come to light.

Agreed.

[Edited 2013-10-07 18:09:45]
 
kengo
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:10 am

Congrats to JL and Airbus for making this deal. It was a surprised outcome considering in the past all WB orders have gone to Boeing, whether on merits, political, or subcontract tieups. I think JAL took a bold step in breaking a tradition that has lasted for more than 50 years and I applaud Inamori and Bregier for making this possible. However, Airbus breaking Boeing's stronghold on Japan's WB market was expected sooner or later. It was a matter of time and it may have taken much longer than Airbus had expected but the first mission is accomplished. With this win, more can be expected in the future. People at Airbus can celebrate with joy on winning a much coveted WB order from a Japanese major. As many voiced here, I think the A350 won on merits, meeting JL's requirements more closely than what Boeing had offered.

As for Boeing, losing this order to Airbus is a major blow and perhaps a wakeup call to the management. How the 787 program was handled was a major embarassment for Boeing and not firmly commiting to the 777X program sooner may have had some negative effects on JL's decision to go with Airbus this time. Losing this order does not spell end for Boeing's dominance in Japan and I think there is a strong possibility that JL will order the 779, as well. However, from now on I don't think Boeing can sit back comfortably expecting to win every order from JL and NH because of past relationship. JL has been a stubborn loyal customer of Boeing but "something" made them to change their mind and it's in the best interest of Boeing to reflect why they lost this order if they expect to continue their dominance in Japan.
 
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par13del
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 224):
Yes they do, but the A350-1000 is a drop-in 1:1 replacement for their 777-300s and 777-300ERs in terms of capacity. The 777-8 is smaller (unless they go 10-abreast) and the 777-9 is larger.

Except everyone is talking about continued traffic growth especially in Asia, so a one to one replacement just on efficiency with no growth seems strange, unless they also intend to purchase a number of A380's or the experts idea of traffic growth is wrong.


Quoting Stitch (Reply 224):
Assuming Boeing can get the 777X into service in 2020 and has the slots available in 2020...

So they are already satisfied that the 777X will be delayed so that factored into their decision????

Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
I think the EIS issues is a non starter, it is only a couple of years between the -X and A350-1000, they are only looking for 2019 deliveries.
Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
There MUST be some compelling reasons to move away from a fleet of 45+ 777, and with a large 787 order book.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 224):
If you believe the aerospace analysts up-thread and in the media, it was at least in part a rebuke by JL to Boeing for the issues with their 787-8s.

I really see no reason why this is considered as a black or white issue, it is a least worth a look or discussion.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
It's not denial. I just don't think airlines are so petty as to base a multi-billion dollar deal primarily, if not purely, on sore feelings.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
IMO, such a scenario tarnishes this win as it implies that Airbus won this order not on the merits of the A350, but on the demerits of the 787.  

Only one Japan with their culture, executives offering public apologies on national TV for an a/c they purchased which results in poor performance, their culture is much different, I'm more willing to lend an air to those who say loss of face is huge.
As for the A350, has anyone said that either OEM produces dog a/c, heck everyone seems to believe that Boeing will ultimately get the 787 sorted out, so I do not see a discussion of the possible effect the 787 had on this order being a reflection of the quality of the A350, but that's just my opinion.
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:26 am

Quoting par13del (Reply 226):
Except everyone is talking about continued traffic growth especially in Asia, so a one to one replacement just on efficiency with no growth seems strange, unless they also intend to purchase a number of A380's or the experts idea of traffic growth is wrong.

Japan's population is aging and shrinking so they seem to be the exception and their traffic patterns may very well be stagnant or even regressive over the long term. As such, a 777-300ER / A350-1000 sized plane may very well be the largest airframe JL (and NH) need.

[Edited 2013-10-07 18:27:06]
 
EmiratesEK231
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:42 am

I keep seeing how this Airbus order was some sort of "wake up!" call to Boeing by JAL, but I'm not seeing the relevance or point at this stage, if that were even remotely true. I think a wake up call would be JL cancelling their remaining 787 orders. What message is JL somehow sending Boeing at this stage, with finally choosing Airbus? Boeing can't manufacture time machines (yet!) and go back to the past and re-do things. So sending Boeing some sort of message would seem lost on me. Okay, so I'm Boeing. JL dealt me a blow with the Airbus order. Now what?? Do I manufacturer 787s faster? Do I somehow push up the EIS date of the 777-9X? Do I now get started on Y3?? I'm just really struggling to understand what kind of effective wake up call this could have been. What is Boeing going to do different in the face of this, that has relevance right now??
I AM A NORTHWEST AIRLINES & EMIRATES LOVER! MY FAVORITE FLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ON THE 777, 727, DC-9, A320, AND 737.
 
trex8
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:54 am

Well JL sent a message to Pratt going to GE for all their 744s and it was very loud and clear!
 
phxa340
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:57 am

Quoting EmiratesEK231 (Reply 228):
I keep seeing how this Airbus order was some sort of "wake up!" call to Boeing by JAL

I am sure Boeing fought hard for the order, Airbus probably fought harder and IMO had the more appropriate offer for JAL. I also think JAL has realized the benefits that come with dual sourcing its aircraft.

If Boeing is feeling blue, I am sure that a 100+ 777X order by EK will make them feel better.

 

Congrats to Airbus and JAL , can't wait to see these birds in action.
 
solarflyer22
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:05 am

Quoting ckfred (Reply 213):
Still, one has to wonder why JAL decided to go with the A350, apparently as the replacement for the 777. Considering that Boeing is updating the 777, it would be more practical to replace your current 777s with updated versions.

It would be I can't help but think this is a major blow. The problem is that you build a relationship with your customer and I can't see that Boeing is doing a great job of that. Japan has a very rich culture which also happens to be very risk averse and honor bound. Boeing is publicly fighting with Norwegian and LOT over compensation. I don't think their products are perceived as being high quality after the 787 issues.

Quoting zeke (Reply 219):

The current 787s being operated in the Japan are a lot smaller than either a 773/77W or the A350-1000. If they have a fleet planning requirement for something that you can order 30+ A350-1000s for, 787s will not cut it. They are too small, delays to not come into it.

True, 787 is a little too small. I wish that Boeing had done a tandem design and build with the 787 like they did the 757/767 family. The A350 looks like a 777 killer right now and it doesn't appear that the 77x will outperform it by that much if at all.
 
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par13del
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:14 am

Quoting EmiratesEK231 (Reply 228):
What is Boeing going to do different in the face of this, that has relevance right now??

They can look at all the things you mentioned, revisit their out-sourcing, review the current order book and specifications of the 777X to ensure they appeal to as many as possible, if Airbus offered production offsets how does that affect your future in Japan, and on and on it goes, does it mean they will change anything, who knows, but there should be soul searching when a loyal customer walks across the street. A new relationship has started and its effect will be felt by Boeing for decades to come.
Or to put it another way, a very loyal customer who only used your a/c just went off and did a billion dollar purchase from your competitor, you think that means...Heck we lost this one, ahh well.
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:15 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 231):
I wish that Boeing had done a tandem design and build with the 787 like they did the 757/767 family.

At the time they launched the 787, that was the immediate need.

The 777-300ER was the dominant large widebody and Airbus' response at the time was to try and close the gap with enhanced versions of the A340-600. Those attempts were unsuccessful, which I believe in part pushed Airbus to re-size the A350 into the A350XWB so it could directly address the 777-300ER.
 
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Pellegrine
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:29 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 224):

Total pax #s are too high for the 787-9 for a long-haul config given JLs average configs. (Obviously wikipedia can be inaccurate. ) Those #s seem weird to me anyway. 102W? Odd. Seems more of a regional/domestic J/Y+/Y- config.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
phxa340
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:30 am

Quoting par13del (Reply 232):
Or to put it another way, a very loyal customer who only used your a/c just went off and did a billion dollar purchase from your competitor, you think that means...Heck we lost this one, ahh well.

I don't think Boeing will see it that way over the long term. Boeing simply can't tailor make airplanes for every one of its customers (although if you order enough it is possible - a la EK) The 787 was too small and the 777X was too large. Short term, I think it probably hurts as Boeing obviously wants to get as many orders as possible.

While the 777X was probably to big for JAL and lost that order, they picked up one from LH because it was the right size for them. Its a constant give and take for the manufactures.

[Edited 2013-10-07 19:31:38]
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:36 am

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 234):
Total pax #s are too high for the 787-9 for a long-haul config given JLs average configs.

Yeah, the 787-9 should offer the same seating capacity as the 777-200ER so I'd expect it to be closer to that: 56J | 40J | 149Y for a total of 245.
 
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BoeingVista
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:44 am

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 235):
While the 777X was probably to big for JAL and lost that order, they picked up one from LH because it was the right size for them. Its a constant give and take for the manufactures.

Just throwing this out there as LH seems to have trimmed it A380 orders, maybe we will find some 777X's are conversions from 748i's when it hits the Boeing order book...
BV
 
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Asturias
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:47 am

I'm very impressed, not a common thing that Japanese airlines buy Airbus. Most impressive, I guess the A350XWB is a very appealing design for airlines.

I don't know about the special relationship Japanese airlines have long been thought to have with Boeing, setting that aside it is always nice to have a variety of airplanes.

Congratulations JL and Airbus!

-a
Tonight we fly
 
phxa340
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:51 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 237):

Ok ... But that wasn't really my point. What's great for one airline isn't so great for another and vice versa. And even if LH did trim their 748 order, they could have ordered something other than a 777X but didn't ....
 
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BlueSky1976
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 2:59 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 223):
Is this the first time the 787-10 lost against the A350-900 ? Did Boeing even offer it ? If not, why not ? What key selection criteria did it not fulfill ?

787-10 was not in the running here. Key criteria was to purchase replacement for 777-200ER/-300ERs. Boeing offered 777X and I believe it was Leehamnews that reported on internal Boeing memo to "win JL order for 777X at any cost".

[Edited 2013-10-07 20:02:47]
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
Acheron
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:37 am

Congrats to Airbus and JL.

And a few months ago some people were claiming that the A350-1000 was pretty much dead since it wasn't being ordered at all.

Also, Leahy can probably retire happy with a smile on his face after cracking Japan.
 
dc1030cf
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:28 am

I remember a friend told me once that many times airline will brief the losing party on why they select the competitor's products. Wonder if JL did the same to B?
 
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Stitch
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JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:37 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 229):
Boeing offered 777X and I believe it was Leehamnews that reported on internal Boeing memo to "win JL order for 777X at any cost".

Doesn't seem to be a successful tactic with Japan Airlines. I've heard that a couple of years back Boeing told them they could "name their own price" on a 747-8 Intercontinental order and, well...
 
wilco737
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RE: JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 1

Tue Oct 08, 2013 5:15 am

Please continue part 2:

JAL Orders 31 A350 Part 2 (by wilco737 Oct 7 2013 in Civil Aviation)

wilco737
  

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