Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
G500
Topic Author
Posts: 1269
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:45 pm

Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:17 pm

From the financial times

"Emirates Airline, the fast-growing Gulf carrier, is in advanced negotiations with Boeing to buy as many as 100 long-haul passenger jets, in what could be a record-breaking $30bn-plus commercial order for the US aircraft manufacturer."


This is beyond ridicoulus that a city State that size can make this large an aircraft purchase..... I understand they depend in connecting passengers, not O&D traffic, but still, in my opinion, beyond belief

Emirates considers record $30bn Boeing jet order

[Edited 2013-10-28 08:39:08 by SA7700]
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20969
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:41 pm

This is great news for Boeing!    This makes the program! I bet the discount and loan guarantees will be fantastic for EK!

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
I understand they depend in connecting passengers, not O&D traffic, but still, in my opinion, beyond belief

False. They have between 45% and 55% O&D and that fraction is growing. We've had several threads to debunk that myth.

And why is it ridiculous for a profitable airline that has all but 2 aircraft leased to plan for their replacement? The first 777-300ERs go off their lease in 2015 IIRC (to be replaced with new 77Ws). EK needs to upgauge the remaining A332s and replace the 772s/773s as well as grow..

Dubai isn't that small, over 2 million residents *plus* another million workers commute in during the day.
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/to...ps-4-8-per-cent-to-2-17m-1.1223350


Its a city that fills more high end hotel rooms than Paris. I don't understand why here on a.net posters do not realize the Dubai of 2013 is a very different city than the Dubai of 2003.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
migair54
Posts: 2458
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 4:24 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:51 pm

considering that right now they have 130 B777 in operation, and I think they are doing very well with them, and sooner or later they will have to replace them I don´t think is that crazy, and they still have 61+20 orders and options.

they also have 70 A350 on order plus 50 options.

130+61+20------>211 B777
23+13------------->46 B332+A343
total---------------->257

70+50------------->120 A350
100----------------->100 B777X
total --------------->220

still some A380 to deliver so with all of that they will have few planes to grow plus all the others to replace almost one by one with the pass of the years, So I don´t think is that crazy.
 
dbo861
Posts: 1060
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 2:20 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
The first 777-300ERs go off their lease in 2015 IIRC (to be replaced with new 77Ws).

What are the chances Delta would be interested in these? These aircraft should only be around 10 years old by the time they come off lease..still lots of life left in them.
 
na
Posts: 9808
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:02 pm

They seem to be keen to get rid of the 77Ws rather quickly.
 
A388
Posts: 8011
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:04 pm

Well we are talking about EK here. When looking at their large fleet of 777's and what they still have on order, all of which will need replacing at some point and with expansion as well the order for 100 order 777's all of a sudden doesn't seem to be beyond belief really.

Edit: I found the EK A350 order for 70-50 so I stand corrected.


A388

[Edited 2013-10-28 09:18:55]
 
kevinkevin
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:52 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:11 pm

That's a big order considering they have 53 A388s, 50 A359, 20 A351 and 61 77W on order. That's 183 orders currently without 777X. On the basis the new fleet will replace A343 and A332 that still adds up with a large fleet. How big do Emirates want to go and will it work?

Great news, however, for Boeing if order goes ahead  
 
User avatar
EPA001
Posts: 3893
Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:13 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:11 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
This is great news for Boeing!

It is great for Boeing, GE and EK and all other parties involved. But I would hardly call it news anymore. There have been so many rumours about EK ordering a huge number of B777-X's (and possibly again more A380's and more A350-1000's as well) that only the number of copies they will order of all these possible orders is interesting.

For the B777-X the rumours went from 50 to 275 copies at the extreme. An number of 100 copies would be a phenomenal number of course.  .
 
User avatar
SAS A340
Posts: 910
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 5:59 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:16 pm

Read today that they also want to buy more A380 but that their biggest problem right now is that there is not enough space at Dubai international Airport .... unbelievable.
  
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19461
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:17 pm

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
This is beyond ridicoulus that a city State that size can make this large an aircraft purchase.....

Well, EK has proven over a long period that they are more than capable of running a very profitable airline, so why is it "ridicoulus"? Have you seen their traffic growth? Anyway, most, if not all these 77Xs will replace existing 77Ws in EK's fleet.

Typically, when an order is "up to..." then number includes firm and options - EK's order for A350s was "up to 120" since it comprised 70 firm and 50 options. I can see the order being 50 firm and 50 options or even as many as 70 and 30 options. I'd be a little surprised if it was 100 firm, but anything is possible.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27373
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:20 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 5):
To my memory they also haven't decided on a potential 350 order.

They have 70 on order (50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000) with options for 50 A350-900s.
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1601
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:57 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:27 pm

Quote:
Emirates has previously placed orders for 50 A350-900s, and 20 A350-1000s, which have list prices of $288m and $332m respectively. Mr Clark said the airline could increase the number of A350-1000s, which will carry 350 passengers, and reduce the A350-900s, which will have 300 seats.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e939340-3...57-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2j2CpEdi5

(Unfortunately, the FT article is behind a paywall, but if you search it with Google, you will be able to read the article linking from there.)

It seems that Boeing will win a big time in Dubai, and Airbus will get only an order re-shuffle.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5341
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:53 pm

Quoting na (Reply 4):
They seem to be keen to get rid of the 77Ws rather quickly.

With over 60 77W's still on order, what makes you think EK wants to get rid of them? I think EK might be interested in getting rid of their older 777-300 Non-ER's. The 77W's, along with their LR's, serve markets beyond the A380 demand and capabilities.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19461
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:57 pm

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
This is beyond ridicoulus that a city State that size can make this large an aircraft purchase.....

Well, EK has proven over a long period that they are more than capable of running a very profitable airline, so why is it "ridicoulus"? Have you seen their traffic growth? Anyway, most, if not all these 77Xs will replace existing 77Ws in EK's fleet.

Typically, when an order is "up to..." then number includes firm and options - EK's order for A350s was "up to 120" since it comprised 70 firm and 50 options. I can see the order being 50 firm and 50 options or even as many as 70 and 30 options. I'd be a little surprised if it was 100 firm, but anything is possible.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
jetfuel
Posts: 1078
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:27 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:20 pm

For delivery 2020-2030. No big deal - just sensible forward planning
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Prost
Posts: 2593
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:38 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 3):
What are the chances Delta would be interested in these? These aircraft should only be around 10 years old by the time they come off lease..still lots of life left in them.

I was thinking the same thing. Emirates is a top notch carrier, so I assume their planes coming off of lease are in excellent condition. Does anybody know which carriers have taken planes before that had operated with Emirates?
 
OldAeroGuy
Posts: 3928
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:50 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:43 pm

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 12):
Quoting na (Reply 4):
They seem to be keen to get rid of the 77Ws rather quickly.

With over 60 77W's still on order, what makes you think EK wants to get rid of them?

It's just na's consistent love for the 777-300ER showing through. I'm sure that, given sufficient time, he'll transfer that feeling to the 777-9X.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
ozglobal
Posts: 2597
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 7:33 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:50 pm

Quoting g500 (Thread starter):
This is beyond ridicoulus that a city State that size can make this large an aircraft purchase..... I understand they depend in connecting passengers, not O&D traffic, but still, in my opinion, beyond belief

So you must also and even more so disbelieve their order of 90 A380's which are significantly larger and more expensive? 37 are already in service at EK...
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:11 pm

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 14):

If they retire after 12 years than an order for 100 would not fill their replacement needs through2025. Assuming no growth the the second half of the decade they will need to order more.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20969
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:41 pm

Its cute we're debating over EK's 'narrowbody.'  
Quoting EPA001 (Reply 7):
For the B777-X the rumours went from 50 to 275 copies at the extreme. An number of 100 copies would be a phenomenal number of course.

Agreed, it is but the quantity we wait to find out about.

Quoting na (Reply 4):
They seem to be keen to get rid of the 77Ws rather quickly.

EK has been *far* more keen to remove A330s and A340s from their fleet. Even the first A380s will cycle out after a decade to twelve years; so this is just a replacement interval for 'good' aircraft in EK's fleet. After a decade of 77W service where they have become the #1 77W operator?    When thy have so many more on order (as already noted, another 60!)? Please recall first 777-300ER deliveries to EK were in 2005.

The only reason the 773s remained in the fleet longer is the lease terms.    Once they go, so will the 77As/77Es.

This is like B6 cycling out older A320s and replacing them with new builds. Its all about incremental efficiency improvements and avoiding older planes that can become 'hanger queens.' For example, the 77Ws going out will be replaced with 77Ws with at least another 400nm of range thanks to increases in MTOW and engine efficiency improvements. EK is also rumored to be getting ready for a small cabin change (3-class with only four F-class seats). Why with EK's credit rating would they risk keeping on older aircraft when thanks to EK's long haul structure its time to rotate out airframes? Right as the cargo market is improving and EK could make good coin carrying more cargo longhaul.


Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
neutronstar73
Posts: 796
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2011 7:57 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:46 pm

As much as I am happy for Boeing, this order, like G500 above, boggle my mind. Maybe I am only looking a the sheer size of the order, and not the fact that maybe a good portion of these will be used as replacements for existing aircraft. But in any case, good grief! This prolly sets the 777X on the road to a massive success.

But 100 still boggles my mind. Where are they going to fly?
 
Emirates2005
Posts: 133
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:43 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:07 pm

As much as I am happy that Boeing can foresee a substantial order, I still see EK as the PanAm of the 21st century.
A310, A332, B732, B738, B742, B743, B773, B77W, DC-10, ATR42, TU-134, TU-154, IL-62, MI-8, E190, A320, C172
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1892
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:16 pm

Quoting Emirates2005 (Reply 21):
As much as I am happy that Boeing can foresee a substantial order, I still see EK as the PanAm of the 21st century.

...except PanAm had little to no feed within their route system. Emirates, on the other hand, are building Dubai as their "one stop" connection from anywhere in the East/South to anywhere in the West/North.

While I do question the need for 50+ A380s in their fleet, I have no doubts about how other types will be utilized.
Proudly avoiding 737 MAX since 18.11.2020.
 
goosebayguy
Posts: 714
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:12 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:22 pm

Amazing I believe EK are ordering replacement aircraft for aircraft not received yet but still on order!
 
ASA
Posts: 1125
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:12 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:22 pm

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 8):

Read today that they also want to buy more A380 but that their biggest problem right now is that there is not enough space at Dubai international Airport .... unbelievable.

Interesting timing!  

The new airport just opened - so plenty of parking for new toys! Time to move!

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/28/travel...i-new-airport/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27373
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 7:57 pm

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 20):
But 100 still boggles my mind. Where are they going to fly?

I expect they will replace 777-300ERs on 12-14-hour missions.
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:25 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
Its a city that fills more high end hotel rooms than Paris. I don't understand why here on a.net posters do not realize the Dubai of 2013 is a very different city than the Dubai of 2003.

In 2003 I worked on construction projects in Dubai and we couldn't believe the rate and size of development was possible. History proved us wrong!
Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 20):
As much as I am happy for Boeing, this order, like G500 above, boggle my mind. Maybe I am only looking a the sheer size of the order, and not the fact that maybe a good portion of these will be used as replacements for existing aircraft. But in any case, good grief! This prolly sets the 777X on the road to a massive success.

I think it is fair to say the projected growth plans for EK is just phenomenal. I am still a little sceptical that they can successfully take all of these aircraft and deploy them. In the next three years they are adding 35% of Heathrow's capacity.

There has to be a ceiling to this growth somewhere on the horizon. I’d suggest TC and the EK boys do have contingency plans in place for the day when the rates of previous growth are no longer possible, but for the time being they will keep talking growth as it has been very successful for them thus far.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20969
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:35 pm

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 20):
But 100 still boggles my mind. Where are they going to fly?
http://www.emirates.com/us/english/flash/route_map.aspx  


Seriously, EK already has 90 777-300ERs in their fleet. A little more frequency without *one* new destination and they are at a hundred.

Quoting Emirates2005 (Reply 21):
I still see EK as the PanAm of the 21st century.

   I'm sad its not a US company, but the reality is EK is the 'new PanAm.' All they need is the 'blue ball of death' on the tail.        
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 22):
While I do question the need for 50 A380s in their fleet, I have no doubts about how other types will be utilized.

Why? They already have 37 in the fleet with 7 more due in 2013. Before EY receives their first A380, EK will be at 55. EK is *short* on aircraft today. They would be making more profit if they had more planes to help fill up their new concourse.

My only question with EK is how they will manage 3 months of one runway operation at DXB next year... That baffles my mind. That operational nightmare I question for DWC, with a terminal sized for a mere 5 million pax/year is not going to be able to offload enough to really make a difference. I would love to have an audio/video bug in Clark's meetings on that (and many other) subject.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 26):
In 2003 I worked on construction projects in Dubai and we couldn't believe the rate and size of development was possible. History proved us wrong!

I lost a 'beer bet' on Dubai's post viability. Cest la vie. Its 'grown into its suit.'

Quoting travelhound (Reply 26):
In the next three years they are adding 35% of Heathrow's capacity.

And getting rid of 773s, 77A/77E, A345s, A343s, some quantity of A332s, and a tiny number of 77Ws. They'll be able to manage fleet versus demand.

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
justloveplanes
Posts: 1014
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:38 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:43 pm

I think EK wants more than 100. Probably need to make some kind of splash at the Dubai Airshow. I am sure UAE would like to put Dubai on par with Farnborough and Paris, and nothing will do that like orders! So 100 now, more later.

Looks like Boeing is holding pretty strong on pricing ("ONLY - HA!" 100 orders), maybe that's why QR backed off too.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:12 pm

Quoting travelhound (Reply 26):

In 2003 I worked on construction projects in Dubai and we couldn't believe the rate and size of development was possible. History proved us wrong!

Do you remember that row of skyscrapers, all empty, along a dirt road? Doubtless now one of the main streets of Dubai. That was amazing(ly weird).
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20969
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:29 pm

Quoting justloveplanes (Reply 28):
Looks like Boeing is holding pretty strong on pricing ("ONLY - HA!" 100 orders), maybe that's why QR backed off too.

Possibly. Absolutely no media value for any other airline if EK is ordering that many.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 29):
Do you remember that row of skyscrapers, all empty, along a dirt road? Doubtless now one of the main streets of Dubai. That was amazing(ly weird).

They're still filling them... but there is enough demand for hotels they are converting.   


Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.
 
81819
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:30 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 29):

I remember one side of the street being new high rises and on the other being vacant land (desert).

On a side note, I have just come back from Hanoi. In many ways that city is just as amazing as Dubai. I was in Viet nam in 1996 just after it opened up to the west. Back than they were building what they called the "New Hanoi". Literally, it was no more than two or three inner city blocks comprising new apartment blocks / high rises (and not very high). I was gob smacked on returning. The city was has just spawned into a super city consuming the regional areas that once surrounded it.
 
User avatar
sassiciai
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:26 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:32 pm

I just cant understand why the B777-9X is such an attractive proposition, when there are alternatives that seem to be cheaper per seat, some that do 90%+ of the 777-9X envelope for what must be a lot less than 90% of the operating cost, and some that do 133% (rude guess figure) at 120% of the operating cost!

Seems to me that the "new" 777 is an attempt to come down from the weight of current family members, but that it will still be a heavy aircraft, with proportionate fuel burn compared to the alternative A350-series planes. Is it just they need so many, they order 50:50 from both A and B coz they cant get them fast enough from either OEM?

Surely EK doesn't plan to fly to LAX 50 times a day with 777-9X! (40 a day with A380 could do better!   )
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1748
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:53 pm

In the more 380 or 777X situation, because their aircraft are leased, the real residual values become very important.

The value of 2nd hand 380's is uncertain, whilst that of the 777 is more certain because of wider market appeal, so I expect Emirates to have to pay a penalty, to cover this for future 380, but not for the 777.

I think that is an important advantage for the 777.

Ruscoe
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27373
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:55 pm

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 32):
I just cant understand why the B777-9X is such an attractive proposition, when there are alternatives that seem to be cheaper per seat, some that do 90%+ of the 777-9X envelope for what must be a lot less than 90% of the operating cost, and some that do 133% (rude guess figure) at 120% of the operating cost!

I guess the same reasons the original A350 sold hundreds of copies in RFPs against the 787 and 777, both of which offered either better economics or better capability?

The real reason it's probably selling is that there are airlines need more than the 90%, but less than the 133%, that the competition can do.
 
airtechy
Posts: 788
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:35 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:13 am

At some point...because living expenses are so expensive in Dubai...they will probably use a few of these planes to ferry employees to nearby countries where it is much cheaper. By commuting them, they can pay even less in wages.

Jim
 
md2012
Posts: 14
Joined: Sat May 26, 2012 1:13 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:33 am

Any chance they will tack on 200 B787-10  
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27373
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:50 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 33):
In the more 380 or 777X situation, because their aircraft are leased, the real residual values become very important.

The value of 2nd hand 380's is uncertain, whilst that of the 777 is more certain because of wider market appeal, so I expect Emirates to have to pay a penalty, to cover this for future 380, but not for the 777.


Might be why they're buying so many now, so if there is a "value issue", it's on Doric, not them.   


Quoting md2012 (Reply 36):
Any chance they will tack on 200 B787-10.  

Too small.  

I can understand EK carping about the more capable A350-1000 because I think they plan to use the A350-1000 for up to 12 hour missions currently handled by their A330-200, A340-300, A340-500, 777-200 and 777-300 fleets and don't need the extra performance for 14-15 hour missions, as those will be handled by the 777-8 and 777-9.

That being said, if EK do convert their 50 A350-900s to A350-1000s, I could see them being the launch customer for the A350-1000R.   
 
User avatar
TheRedBaron
Posts: 3276
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:57 am

I just hope Boeing doesn't profile the 777X on such a huge order, that would be a big mistake...

Then again who turn away 30 billion?

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8522
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:04 am

Quoting migair54 (Reply 2):
130+61+20------>211 B777
23+13------------->46 B332+A343
total---------------->257

70+50------------->120 A350
100----------------->100 B777X
total --------------->220

still some A380 to deliver so with all of that they will have few planes to grow plus all the others to replace almost one by one with the pass of the years, So I don´t think is that crazy

  

In absolute terms, this order is "small" as it isn't sufficient to cover all 77W retirements. They will need to order more just to maintain their current size, completely ignoring growth for the moment.There will be more down the track, that's for sure...

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 8):
their biggest problem right now is that there is not enough space at Dubai international Airport

  

They are pretty hemmed in now, and it's going to get worse next year when one runway is taken out of service. That will be a sight to see.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
They have between 45% and 55% O&D and that fraction is growing. We've had several threads to debunk that myth

  

Quoting Prost (Reply 15):
Does anybody know which carriers have taken planes before that had operated with Emirates?

2 older A330s have gone to VA, and HiFly have taken some old A340s. I know that VA weren't thrilled with those two frames, but have extended their leases so they can't be too bad. Also, these old Airbii are (a) old by A330 standards, and (b) abused, as they are now largely used on the low-premium ethnic routes. The 77Ws will be both younger and probably have lower cycles.

Quoting travelhound (Reply 31):
On a side note, I have just come back from Hanoi. In many ways that city is just as amazing as Dubai

Also, of course, the Chinese cities. I went to PRC for the first time last year, so I can't comment on what it used to be like, but I was staying with expat friends who have been there for 10 years. We were driving through a strip of skyscrapers as far as the eye could see, and they told me that what I was looking at was all paddy fields when they arrived   
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 15):
Does anybody know which carriers have taken planes before that had operated with Emirates?

At least 5 of Air Transat's A310-300s are ex-EK.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 4:52 am

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 32):
I just cant understand why the B777-9X is such an attractive proposition, when there are alternatives that seem to be cheaper per seat

What other aircraft 'seem to be cheaper per seat'? This is the first I have heard that.

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 20):
But 100 still boggles my mind. Where are they going to fly?

EK currently have 129 777s. They typically retire aircraft at 12 years of age. So even a new 2013 aircraft will be 12 years old in 2025. An order of 100 will not even cover the 120 777s that they will retire by 2024.

EK grew 18% last year. It would follow then that they would need 150+ 777s before 2025. Now some of these 777s will be replaced by other aircraft but I see an order for 100 as a good sized first purchase which they will need to add to before EIS to ensure they have enough aircraft.

When it comes to EK it helps to think of 777s like other airlines view 737s.  

tortugamon
 
na
Posts: 9808
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:16 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18):
If they retire after 12 years than an order for 100 would not fill their replacement needs through2025. Assuming no growth the the second half of the decade they will need to order more.


More of what is the question. EKs policy is to upgrade routes to A380s wherever possible. Bet on it, Airbus will announce a more efficient/reengined A380 soon, or very soon. I doubt it´ll take more than a year that we will hear about a go-ahead. They´ll do everything to crush the 77-9X between the A380 and A350.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 33):
The value of 2nd hand 380's is uncertain, whilst that of the 777 is more certain because of wider market appeal, so I expect Emirates to have to pay a penalty, to cover this for future 380, but not for the 777.
I think that is an important advantage for the 777.

Why I agree that the market situation for used A380 might be uncertain, I disagree with what you say about the 77W. This plane might be the current bestseller among the big jets, but almost all airlines nowadays buy new planes, even the once poor operators from Africa or Asia. After 2020 the 77W will become obsolete very fast. Where the hell shall be the market that´ll take hundreds of used 77Ws between 2018-2025? Its big success might have a dark side in the longer term. The majority of airlines who used to take secondhand 747s in the 1990s or 2000s wont take used 77Ws after 2020, they´ll go straight for new 777X and A350-1000. I am pretty sure that after 2020 many 77Ws will be scrapped 12 or 15 years old after coming off lease.
 
Steelyman
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:40 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:26 am

Can anyone publish utilization of actual frames?

I recall seing tens of 77W's in DXB apron parked for long times. Why do they need further 100 frames if actual ones are parked for long times?
BRGDS, Mike
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:43 am

Quoting na (Reply 42):
More of what is the question.

I think EK is growing faster than they thought they would when they originally ordered the A350. I think they now see the A359 is too small and I think they will convert most of those orders to the A351. So future orders should between four models until the A389 comes along: A351, 777-8x, 777-9x, and A380. What they order after the 777x will be based on a variety of factors but I think it is only a matter of time when even the A351 is too small. I don't think that is too far in the future and could even see A350 orders being converted into more A380 orders. I have very little difficulty seeing an EK with 200+ 777xs in 20 years time.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
After 2020 the 77W will become obsolete very fast.

787 is 15-20% more efficient than the A330 and the 787 has been in service for over 2 years and yet the A330 still sells; I don't see why the 77W will be any different.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
Where the hell shall be the market that´ll take hundreds of used 77Ws between 2018-2025?

There certainly are a lot more airlines that will take your call. Many buyers of second hand frames already operate the aircraft. There are 10 A380 customers vs 60 777 customers. Its not that either will be easy its that the 777 second hand market will be less difficult.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
The majority of airlines who used to take secondhand 747s in the 1990s or 2000s wont take used 77Ws after 2020, they´ll go straight for new 777X and A350-1000.

In a couple weeks you won't be able to order a 777x for delivery before 2023. If Airbus does not add another line their A351 backlog isn't much better (if at all). I don't see why they would be so hesitant to buy a 77W second hand if they are one of the 60 operators of 777s already.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
I am pretty sure that after 2020 many 77Ws will be scrapped 12 or 15 years old after coming off lease.

There are around 372 in service 777s that are at least 12 years old and many of these are the A models with much more efficient and capable aircraft available including A330s and 77Ws yet less than a handful have been scrapped at this point. Why will the most efficient twin in the skies today all of a sudden be scrapped in 2020 when the replacements are just barely starting to fill orders placed 13 years earlier (EK purchased the A351 in 2007 for example)? That does not make sense to me.

tortugamon
 
na
Posts: 9808
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:17 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 44):

You critisize my scenario, yet dont give an answer that makes sense. Again, who shall take all those 77Ws coming off lease? EK will likely retire around 100 777s before 2025, most of which are 77Ws younger than 15 years, and SQ 50 or more, just to name the biggest two. A higher percentage of airlines than ever before now buy new planes, especially if it comes to widebodies. Of course I see no problems to place half or two thirds of those planes, but I am pretty sure more planes than in the past will face a sudden premature death by the torch due to the limited market left. It would need dozen of Air Atlantas and Tower Air´s.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 44):
787 is 15-20% more efficient than the A330 and the 787 has been in service for over 2 years and yet the A330 still sells

The A330 is considerably cheaper than the 787 and can be had quicker. And its in production. The 77W will be stopped when the X comes. It´ll suddenly be an old plane with not just one but two better replacements on the market. Most 77X orders will be 77W replacements. The question is either keeping the old 77W longer or buy a new A350-1000/777-9X. If anything I doubt the market for used 77Ws will be much more than half the size of that of the new plane market. Result: the deserts will be full of them after 2025. In many cases the alternative for someone who doesnt want to write-off money on 77Ws in the longer term will be NOT buying the 777-9X. Wise airlines not planning to use them 20 years anyway therefore now lease 77Ws and dont buy them.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:49 am

Quoting na (Reply 45):
You critisize my scenario, yet dont give an answer that makes sense.

When it comes to second hand sales of any product it comes down to the number of potential customers. Most things being equal, the larger the market (more customers) the higher the value relative to its original price.

I did not the second hand market for the 77W was going to be easy and as the aircraft is still 4+ years away from having to enter the second market, I have zero clue on who will be buyers. I just disagree that it will be anything like the A380.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
The A330 is considerably cheaper than the 787 and can be had quicker.

The 77W is and will be considerably cheaper and can be had quicker than the a350 and the 777x.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
The 77W will be stopped when the X comes.

They plan on keeping both lines open as the 777x production is ramped up. I do not see the 77W/F FAL stopped before 2025 as at least the Freighter will need to be produced somewhere as there does not appear to be any competition in the works.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
the deserts will be full of them after 2025

In 2025 the oldest 77W will be 21 years old and less than 25% of them will be less than 15 years old.

Airbus is currently projecting an A351 production rate of around 3/month (this could change) and the 777x will just be getting up to speed by 2023 and its hard to picture the line going much faster than 8/month. The majority of current A351 orders are not for 77W replacement. So which aircraft and production line is going to replace the ~1000+ 77Ws that will be service by 2025?

tortugamon
 
User avatar
EK413
Posts: 5595
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:33 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 1):
And why is it ridiculous for a profitable airline that has all but 2 aircraft leased to plan for their replacement? The first 777-300ERs go off their lease in 2015 IIRC (to be replaced with new 77Ws). EK needs to upgauge the remaining A332s and replace the 772s/773s as well as grow..

Well QF could use a few B77Ws around 2015-2016. The B744 is due for retirement 2020 & the B77W would be a nice fit between the B787 / A380 fleet.

EK8413
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
LY777
Posts: 2579
Joined: Fri Nov 25, 2005 6:58 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:14 pm

I read they could order up to 175 777Xs!

http://www.lesechos.fr/entreprises-s...r-100-a-175-boeing-777x-622972.php

[Edited 2013-10-29 06:14:54]
Flown:717,727,732,733,734,735,738,73H,742/744/748,752,753,762/2ER/763/3ER,772/77E/773/77W, 788, 789, DC8,DC10,E190,E195,MD83,MD88, L1011, A3B2,A319,A320-100/200,A321,A332/A333,A343,A388
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20969
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:43 pm

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 43):

Can anyone publish utilization of actual frames?

It was very high. 15 hours 6 minutes per day. However, there are times of the day a large number sit at DXB.

Now with that data, EK was using A388s 14 hours 28 minutes per day!   

Emirates At DXB - Ultimate Operational Analysis (by HB-IWC Sep 27 2010 in Civil Aviation)

EK is notorious for running their 777s hard, not for letting them sit idle. Oh, there are periods they sit at DXB, but anything about 13.5 hours per day utilization is considered good.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 46):
When it comes to second hand sales of any product it comes down to the number of potential customers. Most things being equal, the larger the market (more customers) the higher the value relative to its original price.

   Both the A330 and 777 have very liquid aftermarkets. The 777 a little more so as there is only one engine choice for the 777-300ER.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
the deserts will be full of them after 2025.

Unlikely. There will be fuel burn improvements and the planes have very low maintenance burdens (vs. say an A330). The 777X will replace production of the 77W quickly, but not instantly. This isn't a case of the A346 where they were high fuel burners, high maintenance, and overweight (high ATC charges).

You do realize 777 production is *increasing* to 100 frames per year?
The 777 backlog is 330 frames while the A330 is 325 frames. Pretty much a dead heat.

Both Airbus and Boeing have noted that long backlogs on the A330 and 777 hurt sales, here is a Boeing link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...s-sales-as-airlines-shun-wait.html

Now if you're implying 9 abreast on a 777 is done. Ok. Even Boeing shows that:
http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/arc...2011/03/the_games_people_play.html
But even the 777-200ER as a cost advantage over the A333 if the 777 is ten abreast. Who would be silly to buy a 77W that wasn't ten abreast or fail to convert them to ten abreast well before 2021?

But for missions in the 5000 to 7000nm range, the 77W has amazing economics.

Avoiding a heavy maintenance will keep many 77Ws operating a long time.

Before the 777-300ERs are retired, the 777-200 and 777-200ERs will be retired. Looking at airfleets.net, I'm not seeing premature retirement of *any* 777. Heck, the freighter conversion was put off due to high resale on the used airframes.

The 777 is holding up its resale value amazingly (I believe due to the 10 abreast option):
Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2013 (by LAXintl Oct 1 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Compare on airfleets, but the A330 is *only* two years older and has far more stored and scrapped planes.   

Quoting LY777 (Reply 48):
I read they could order up to 175 777Xs!

That is more like it!

Lightsaber
I cannot wait to get vaccinated to live again! Warning: I simulated that it takes 50%+ vaccinated to protect the vaccinated and 75%+ vaccinated to protect the vac-hesitant.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos