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Stitch
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:17 pm

Quoting na (Reply 42):
This plane might be the current bestseller among the big jets, but almost all airlines nowadays buy new planes, even the once poor operators from Africa or Asia. After 2020 the 77W will become obsolete very fast. Where the hell shall be the market that´ll take hundreds of used 77Ws between 2018-2025?

Like lightsaber, I believe the 777 (and A330) families will have a decent second-hand market, especially for carriers who will not have abundant access to low-cost capital sources. Unlike older models, the A330 and 777 have significantly lower maintenance burdens as they age thanks to being developed to modern maintenance standards and are exceptionally fuel efficient for their type. This will increase their appeal with second-tier operators as they will not be using the acquisition cost savings to cover maintenance and fuel cost burdens.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 50):
This will increase their appeal with second-tier operators as they will not be using the acquisition cost savings to cover maintenance and fuel cost burdens.

100%

I would also add that by 2021 the resale of the A330 and 77W ideal candidates for operators with lower utilization.

Note: I do not apply this to the first few years of A330 due to their lesser range that will be in direct competition with the NEO/MAX nor the 777-200 (non-ER) due to the 'range logic' of having to compete with narrowbodies (there will be some, but not enough demand). But otherwise, we will see those planes for a long time (both A330 and 777).

I also expect interest rates to return to historical norms before 2021.    That will improve the attractiveness of these used widebodies.


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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:33 pm

Quoting na (Reply 45):
You critisize my scenario, yet dont give an answer that makes sense. Again, who shall take all those 77Ws coming off lease?

Isn't Doric's business model predicated on someone taking these aircraft after EK is done using them?
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:16 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 52):
Isn't Doric's business model predicated on someone taking these aircraft after EK is done using them?

As I recall from reading the prospectus, the planes are fully paid off within 10 years of their 12-year lease period, so in theory Doric could just give them away and still be ahead of the game.

In practice, I expect Doric will try and place them with new operators, but since the assets will be fully paid for, that gives them flexibility in pricing and that should increase desirability with said new operators.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:33 pm

Quoting NeutronStar73 (Reply 20):
But in any case, good grief! This prolly sets the 777X on the road to a massive success

Just like they are setting the A380 on the road to massive success . . .         
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:52 am

So I suppose that with all those new birds to EK , one of them will come to BRU , its time for EK to challenge other middle East airlines , I thinK BRU as the potential of being one big hub and bring back those big birds again , like SQ
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:17 pm

Bloomberg reports that Boeing is in talks with 4 airliners for orders up to 255 frames, valued $87 B.
  
wtf ....

100 - 150 for Emirates
Up to 30 for Etihad
About 50 for Qatar
Up to 25 for Cathay.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...rder-haul-of-up-to-87-billion.html

[Edited 2013-10-30 07:20:36]
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:57 pm

Res maintenance, when I was a kid cars tended to be replaced at 50K, and a few people would get 100K, certainly sometime between 3 and 5 years it was old. Many of us now consider a 5 year old car still to be new. And those who buy the more reliable models get tired of their car at 200-250K.

The point being, EK and other airlines which at one time got rid of planes at 12 years may not continue that pattern. Is there any reason to think that a well maintained 380/350s and 777/787sl will be old and inefficient at 20 years old?

[Edited 2013-10-30 07:59:33]
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:04 pm

Quoting frmrcapcadet (Reply 57):
The point being, EK and other airlines which at one time got rid of planes at 12 years may not continue that pattern.

My non scientific observation is that airlines are replaced earlier and earlier due to technical advances resulting in lesser operating costs.
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 3:12 pm

Quoting frmrcapcadet (Reply 57):

Someone should tell their leasing companies then. Most of them are based on 12 year contracts.


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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 4:23 pm

Quoting chiad (Reply 56):
About 50 for Qatar

Wasn´t there a thread only a few days ago stating that QR has no interest in the 777 ? That shows again never believe anything what you hear in the world of aviation until the ink on the contract is dry.......
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 4:24 pm

This is fantastic news indeed, and although it hasn't been made official, if EK are to finally place a firm order for them it'd be the worst kept secret in aviation. EK has shown a lot of interest in the 777X program, and I think it's a better than even money bet that they will place a substantial order. 100 777Xs would indeed be a boost for Boeing.

Quoting na (Reply 4):
They seem to be keen to get rid of the 77Ws rather quickly.

 

No, they just happen to be due for return to their lessor, and they are being replaced with newer, more capable 777-300ERs. Clearly, EK can't get enough of them ...

Quoting sassiciai (Reply 32):
I just cant understand why the B777-9X is such an attractive proposition, when there are alternatives that seem to be cheaper per seat, some that do 90%+ of the 777-9X envelope for what must be a lot less than 90% of the operating cost, and some that do 133% (rude guess figure) at 120% of the operating cost!

The 777-9X is an attractive proposition because it offers more capability and capacity than the A350-1000, for airlines that need an aircraft larger than the current 777-300ER and A350-1000. Given that there is an increasing number of airlines fitting more than 350 seats in their 777-300ER, there is clearly a market for a widebody twin that is larger than the current 777-300ER. The 777-9X offers an alternative for airlines that find the A350-1000 too small and the A380-800 too big.

And, pray tell, which comparable alternative aircraft will have a lower cost per seat?

Quoting na (Reply 42):
More of what is the question. EKs policy is to upgrade routes to A380s wherever possible. Bet on it, Airbus will announce a more efficient/reengined A380 soon, or very soon. I doubt it´ll take more than a year that we will hear about a go-ahead. They´ll do everything to crush the 77-9X between the A380 and A350.
EK do upgrade some routes to the A380, and that's why they've ordered a bucketload of them. But they've also ordered a lot of 777-300ERs, so clearly they see a use for those aircraft too. As EK continues to expand, chances are they'll be needing more 777s to open new routes or fly to airports which do not yet have A380 capable gates.

Airbus may well launch a re-engined A380, or even an A380-900, but it does not compete in the same category as the 777-9X. It is highly unlikely that any airline wanting to purchase the 777-9X would also be looking at the A380. Even if Airbus were to launch an XWB powered A380, as you suggest, it would be immaterial to the 777-9X's performance in the market.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
After 2020 the 77W will become obsolete very fast.

No, it won't. Between now and 2020, the 777-300ER is likely to see numerous improvements designed to improve its performance and/or operating costs relative to the 777-300ER that was available in 2003, and the 777-300ER that is available today; and, as tortugamon mentioned above, the very fact of its earlier availability and lower price means that it will continue to sell after the entry into service of the 777X, just like the A330 continues to sell extremely well today against a more efficient 787.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
all airlines nowadays buy new planes, even the once poor operators from Africa or Asia.

No. ET and KQ 77Ws are both leased, not owned.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
Where the hell shall be the market that´ll take hundreds of used 77Ws between 2018-2025? Its big success might have a dark side in the longer term. The majority of airlines who used to take secondhand 747s in the 1990s or 2000s wont take used 77Ws after 2020, they´ll go straight for new 777X and A350-1000.

Assuming they can afford it, then yes, it makes sense to buy the newer aircraft than a used aircraft. But there's no reason why the 'second-tier' airlines who have bought second hand 747s won't replace them with used 77Ws come 2020, and likewise there may be those that require these aircraft on very short notice, such that they cannot wait 18 months for their order to come to fruition.

Quoting na (Reply 42):
I am pretty sure that after 2020 many 77Ws will be scrapped 12 or 15 years old after coming off lease.

There will be a number of them coming off leases, but it's a far cry to suggest that they will be scrapped. That's just wishful thinking on your part   

It is because the 777-300ER is in such demand in the new aircraft market that, when they become available on the second hand market, airlines that couldn't afford to buy new ones would be looking at buying or leasing second hand ones to replace older, less efficient aircraft like the 747.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
The A330 is considerably cheaper than the 787 and can be had quicker.

Likewise, the 77W is considerably cheaper than the A350 and 777X and can be had quicker.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
And its in production. The 77W will be stopped when the X comes.

Source?

In the highly unlikely event of the entire 777 backlog dropping to zero at the time of the 777X's EIS, it would be rather silly of Boeing not to continue building them to fulfill demand.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
It´ll suddenly be an old plane with not just one but two better replacements on the market.

"Old" it most certainly is not. By 2020 the oldest 77W will only be 17 years old, while the majority of them will be less than 10 years old.

Quoting na (Reply 45):
Most 77X orders will be 77W replacements.

Really? So why did LH order the 777X, given that they never operated the 77W?

Quoting chiad (Reply 56):
Bloomberg reports that Boeing is in talks with 4 airliners for orders up to 255 frames, valued $87 B.

wtf ....

100 - 150 for Emirates
Up to 30 for Etihad
About 50 for Qatar
Up to 25 for Cathay.

Of those, I'd say that 50 for QR might be perhaps on the optimistic side, especially given that they have both A350s and A380s on order. But for EY, EK and CX, if they were to order the 777X, I would imagine that those numbers would be about right.

[Edited 2013-10-30 09:56:17]
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 5:10 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 61):
There will be a number of them coming off leases, but it's a far cry to suggest that they will be scrapped. That's just wishful thinking on your part   

It is because the 777-300ER is in such demand in the new aircraft market that, when they become available on the second hand market, airlines that couldn't afford to buy new ones would be looking at buying or leasing second hand ones to replace older, less efficient aircraft like the 747.

I find it eternally amusing that in today's world, a fuel efficient 77W or A330 or 767 of today is suddenly a gas-guzzler and inefficient airframe as soon as a new jet comes out (in the minds of some people, at least)

I think they still have a lot of useful life and efficiency to provide, if used properly.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting columba (Reply 60):
Wasn´t there a thread only a few days ago stating that QR has no interest in the 777 ?

Yes indeed. But there are contradicting reports. Here's another one supporting QR buying spree:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...s-as-al-baker-studies-new-777.html
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:10 pm

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 61):
Of those, I'd say that 50 for QR might be perhaps on the optimistic side, especially given that they have both A350s and A380s on order.

If their local competition are adding 777Xs in large numbers, they may feel they need to do the same.

It's been said on this forum one needs an A380 to compete with an A380, so perhaps one also needs a 777X to compete with a 777X...
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:16 pm

Forgive me if this is a little off topic, but Qatar says there will be an order for the A350 during the show.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/1...atar-airways-idUKBRE99S0F220131029

Quote: "I won't tell you what the order is, but there will be one,"
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:29 pm

Chiad, reading the article, I believe it could be for 787s or even 777s (not the 777x though) as well.. no A380 or C series though.
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:34 pm

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 66):
I believe it could be for 787s or even 777s (not the 777x though) as well.. no A380 or C series though.

   If I had to place a bet today, I'd place it on the 787-10, but I wouldn't bet much. It could be anything.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Wed Oct 30, 2013 11:20 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 59):
Someone should tell their leasing companies then. Most of them are based on 12 year contracts.

12 year lease makes sense for a whole variety of reasons. But that does not preclude the possibility of a lease being extended. I figure at my age I likely will live long enough to see what happens to 12 year old 380s.
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:17 am

Quoting chiad (Reply 65):
Forgive me if this is a little off topic, but Qatar says there will be an order for the A350 during the show.
Quoting chiad (Reply 65):
Quote: "I won't tell you what the order is, but there will be one..."


Mr. Akbar Al Baker is not confirming, nor even implying, an A350 order. Instead, he is stating he will be placing an airplane order at the Dubai Air Show, but will not say what he is ordering. The confusion comes from Reuter's decision to combine his comments about the A350's test and certification program and his intent to place an as yet unidentified order at the DAS.  

The "critics consensus" is that he will convert all 30 of his 787 options into firm orders.

[Edited 2013-10-30 18:20:51]
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 64):
If their local competition are adding 777Xs in large numbers, they may feel they need to do the same.

It's been said on this forum one needs an A380 to compete with an A380, so perhaps one also needs a 777X to compete with a 777X...

Oh, I have little doubt that they'd order some 777Xs, if only to replace their current 777 fleet, but 50? I think if they order, it's probably going to be closer to 30 than 50.

Although I would be delighted to be proven wrong in this case  
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:11 am

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 70):
Oh, I have little doubt that they'd order some 777Xs, if only to replace their current 777 fleet, but 50? I think if they order, it's probably going to be closer to 30 than 50.

If he does go for 50, I could see half of it being firm and half either options or purchase rights. I do agree 50 firm orders seems a bit extreme - especially if he does convert his 787 options to firm order, as well.   
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:23 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 64):
It's been said on this forum one needs an A380 to compete with an A380, so perhaps one also needs a 777X to compete with a 777X...

Part of the reason you need an A380 to compete with an A380 is due the internal space, seat width and perception amongst passengers that it is a premium product, 10 abreast in a 777 is not going to get you that.
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:35 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 72):
10 abreast in a 777 is not going to get you that.

Passengers seem to be perceiving the 787 as a premium product so far. The 777X should be just enough wider that it will feel similar to a 9Y 787, and it will likely have similar interior design and amenities. It may not be quite as premium as a 10Y A380, but it will be perceived as a real step up from current 10Y 777 and A330/A340 interiors.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 3:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 69):
Mr. Akbar Al Baker is not confirming, nor even implying, an A350 order. Instead, he is stating he will be placing an airplane order at the Dubai Air Show, but will not say what he is ordering.

Agree, Stitch. He is already a launch customer for the A350, and has 80 on order (43 A359s and 37 A351s). I agree that he's likely to exercise some options on the B787 - he currently has only 30 on firm order, all B788s.

He also says he has 'no interest in additional Airbus A380 double-deckers.' Mind you, he already has 13 on order, with deliveries starting next year.

So my 'best guess' is that he's maybe looking at some 789s this time, since it's now closing in on EIS?
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:04 am

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 66):
reading the article, I believe it could be for 787s or even 777s
Quoting Stitch (Reply 69):
Mr. Akbar Al Baker is not confirming, nor even implying, an A350 order.

Yeah ... I guess you could be right ...
Well ... we'll soon know for sure.
 
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 5:06 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 69):
The "critics consensus" is that he will convert all 30 of his 787 options into firm orders

AAB could order both and then insult A *and* B.  

And yes, it wouldn't surprise me if all 50 orders were widebodies.

To everyone: I'm amazed how the Dubai air show has grown up. Its no Paris or Farnborough, but my perception is that for commercial planes, it is the #3 airshow with a big military sales component.

What will FZ and EK truly order... (quantity and types)


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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:11 am

Quoting jetfuel (Reply 14):

Exactly...nothing else to add here...
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 6:25 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 67):
   If I had to place a bet today, I'd place it on the 787-10, but I wouldn't bet much. It could be anything.

QR has stated that they will not buy the 787-10 because it is so close to the A359. AAB could always change his mind but since last Fall he has been as consistent as he gets.

Quoting CXB77L (Reply 70):
Oh, I have little doubt that they'd order some 777Xs, if only to replace their current 777 fleet, but 50?

Actually they will have 40 777s very soon and most suggest they will have their options exercised as well but their replacement could take us beyond 2025 which may be the reason they will not order the 777x immediately. Or, as has been mentioned, a smaller order with options could make sense as well.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 73):
777X should be just enough wider that it will feel similar to a 9Y 787, and it will likely have similar interior design and amenities.

I think it will be step change better than the 787. The windows will be similar and the humidity/altitude could be worse but I think they realize that the 787 interior will be outdated by that time and they will need to implement other things. Not sure what they are but I assume more technology and automation, better IFE options. They may make better use of crown space allowing more space for passengers (or more seats). Regardless, I think a lot will progress in 10 years since the original 787 and the 777x will show that improvement.

Quoting mingocr83 (Reply 77):
Exactly...nothing else to add here...

Not exactly. EK will need 100 aircraft to replace their 777s before 2025. I don't see an order of that size being useful to EK if its deliveries are stretched all the way out to 2030.

tortugamon
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:22 am

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 67):
If I had to place a bet today, I'd place it on the 787-10, but I wouldn't bet much. It could be anything.

Qatar already ruled the 787-10 out of the game. Last summer Mr Baker said:

Quote:
The Qatar Airways chief also said he was not interested in the 787-10. “The 787-10 is very close to the Airbus A350-1000. We already have 38 A350-1000s [on order]. I don’t want to duplicate aircraft, which have maybe the same performance, if not better. Actually the A350-1000 today, for me, looks like a better aircraft than the 787-10,” he said.

And last Tuesday he re-confirmed:

Quote:
Qatar Airways’ CEO said Tuesday he is not interested in the newest version of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner

The 787-9 is the more logical choice IMO.

[Edited 2013-10-31 01:23:06]
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mingocr83
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:26 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 78):

What I'm referring to, is that this is an order based on future planning...we are talking 2020-2025 time frame here...those planes aren't going to be delivered next year...don't know why the people is surprised here...
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RE: Emirates In Talks To Buy Up To 100 777Xs

Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:34 am

Quoting mingocr83 (Reply 80):
we are talking 2020-2025 time frame here...

I agree. The comment you were agreeing with suggested the purchase was for deliveries up to 2030. I agree with your assessment that this order is for a more immediate need than that.

tortugamon

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