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MIflyer12
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:38 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 48):
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 20):
Peking is being operated to please China, SAA needs to stop being the AR of Africa. Buy or lease some 777 and ditch the 4 engine A340

That would be a sure way to kill SAA for good, due to the limitations that the 777 has when flying out of JNB. The one thing they have done right was to keep the A340 as their long haul aircraft. The A340's will eventually be replaced by more capable twins.

Would somebody (ferpe?) please note the lift capability of the SAA A346 (42J, 275Y) compared to a Delta 777-200LR (45J, 36Y+, 188Y)? Delta operates from JNB to ATL, 8439 statute miles as a great circle route, farther than any present SAA non-stop routes.
 
airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:01 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 50):
Would somebody (ferpe?) please note the lift capability of the SAA A346 (42J, 275Y) compared to a Delta 777-200LR (45J, 36Y+, 188Y)? Delta operates from JNB to ATL, 8439 statute miles as a great circle route, farther than any present SAA non-stop routes.

I'm not sure what you're trying to get to but this topic has been discussed here on a.net ad nauseam, but not even the mighty 77L wil loutperform the A346 out of JNB. However, for Delta JNB is just one route in their very expansive route network and the 77L is just a small subfleet in DL's very large fleet. The cost of operating these very expensive "ULH" routes is absorbed systemwide. For SAA, a much smaller airline, every long haul route would need the performance of the 77L. To put it into perspective and according to fellow anetter Zeke, even the lowly A343 can outperform the 77W out of JNB.
SAA To Start Direct JNB - Beijing Flights (by saababy Sep 30 2011 in Civil Aviation)
 
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mercure1
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:22 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 48):
And it also has absolutely nothing to do with flying an A346.

Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346 - a marginal route may become profitable.

There are two sides to a balance sheet.

Operating less then economic model punishes the cost portion with higher burden.

As Air Canada said when it rid itself of the A343 for the A333 instead, overnight it saw a 15% cash operating cost benefit. That is huge for a route in an industry where margins are often single digits.
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speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:25 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 52):
Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346

SAA's major finance drain isn't through its fleet's fuel consumption. Do you know how much fuel 17 BILLION rand is?

Inside SAA is a form of cancer. It needs chemotherapy, or have the tumour cut out. Both unlikely. These turn-around schemes have been ongoing for decades. Always the promises of profitability when a new fleet arrives, yet never materialise.

Until then it will continue to be a loss making machine relying on government handouts as it has done for the last decade and a half. Or two decades, I have lost count.

I stand by my opinion that its fleet choices will not dictate profitability or not.
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LAXintl
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:39 pm

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
Inside SAA is a form of cancer.

Sure SAA might be a cancer, but inefficiency in every area eats away at this.

If your cost to produce a product is too high, this needs to be tackled clearly. And a less then efficient fleet adds to the bleed.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 8:08 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 54):
Sure SAA might be a cancer, but inefficiency in every area eats away at this.

If your cost to produce a product is too high, this needs to be tackled clearly. And a less then efficient fleet adds to the bleed.

Correct. And unfortunately SAA's major inefficiency isn't its fuel burn. If it was, then just perhaps, at least one of their fleet renewal and turn-around strategies would have worked. But they have all been a stellar failure and led to more government bailouts.

However they fail to address the real issues and just beg the government for more money when they run broke again.

Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...
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MD11junkie
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:00 pm

Quoting irishayes (Reply 32):

You are clearly not familiar with the airlines' route numbers and are repeating what others say (which doesn't make it true).

EZE has grown a lot (and certainly out grown the other routes) in 3 years, while SAO constantly declining.
Not a growth market? Sorry, not true.

Saludos.

[Edited 2013-11-09 13:02:13]
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airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sat Nov 09, 2013 10:15 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 52):
Sure it does - remove the poorer economics of the A346 - a marginal route may become profitable.

Poorer in what way? No twin aircraft performs better out of JNB than an A346. The problem isn't the aircraft. LH makes plenty of money flying A343's and A346's and they don't even need the Hot and High performance. Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period. Unless they decide to get a fleet of even more expensive and less capable 77L, or go overboard with 748i's or A380's.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
SAA's major finance drain isn't through its fleet's fuel consumption. Do you know how much fuel 17 BILLION rand is?

  
 
abrelosojos
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:37 am

Quoting behramjee (Reply 44):
yes am aware as the Nigeria-India bilateral has not been re-negotiated for over 20+ years LOL . It still is 2 weekly Nigeria-India nonstop flights permitted using nothing larger than an A310 :P Obviously this shall change soon as Nigeria-India market size is as big as Nigeria-China now. FYI, BOM-LOS sees 48,000 pax per year now and DEL-LOS 40,000. Both markets see bigger demand than PEK-LOS (32,000) where as CAN-LOS is 49,000 pax !

= Again, I am well aware of the numbers, and the airline trying to seek a change in Nigeria - India bilateral with their 1-stop option   ...

However, O&D numbers are just the base of good network planning. Again, I would loved to be proved wrong and greet an airline doing the routings you think are feasible ... am sure that a 330 can be freed up somewhere ... or there is always the IT 345's   ...

Quoting behramjee (Reply 44):
As far as South Africa-India bilateral is concerned, I am not aware of the beyond rights, only that SAA is allowed to operate up to 14 flights per week into India with 5600 seats. However there is no harm in lobbying for beyond 5th freedom rights and hoping for a positive outcome. Like I said earlier, I am just merely giving a suggestion and the nitty gritty stuff such as obtaining traffic rights etc is under someone's responsibility to handle.

= SA bilateral does not allow this. I would say that if SA really wanted 5th freedom in India, they would get it. SA - India are very close politically.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 53):
I stand by my opinion that its fleet choices will not dictate profitability or not.

= Agreed 100%.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 55):
Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...

= Yes. But, I do think that you can minimize the bleeding in the interim. Too bad Siza Mizimela had to go ...

Saludos,
Alex
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mercure1
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:40 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Poorer in what way?

Its well know the economics of the A346 lag behind. Just look at its lackluster sales record.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period.

So what do the 40+ other airlines that serve JNB do ?? Best I can see only 1 other carrier runs A346 to JNB.


At the end SA does not operate in a vacuum.

They must compete globally against all these other airlines, and being handicapped with fleet that is less cost efficient only adds to its problems. This is might be an added €1 or €10,000 cost per flight.

Ultimately SA needs reform many things, but implementing a more cost efficient fleet is certainly part of the equation.
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behramjee
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:03 pm

Just a fyi in case anyone is wondering what the passenger flown numbers (O&D) from South Africa to SE Asia, there are as follows for JAN-DEC 2012

Source: IATA MarketIS Plus

PEK-JNB 49,000
PEK-CPT 11,000

CAN-JNB 10,000
CAN-CPT 2,000

HKG-JNB 75,000
HKG-CPT 18,000

SIN-JNB 44,000
SIN-CPT 16,000

BKK-JNB 54,000
BKK-CPT 14,000

KUL-JNB 20,000
KUL-CPT 9,000
 
airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:43 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
Its well know the economics of the A346 lag behind. Just look at its lackluster sales record.

Not from an airport at nearly 6,000ft alt. If you show me the numbers that prove it, I'll have to agree with you but for now I'll go with someone who has actually flown out of JNB. See reply 15 from Zeke, on this thread:
SAA To Start Direct JNB - Beijing Flights (by saababy Sep 30 2011 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
So what do the 40+ other airlines that serve JNB do ?? Best I can see only 1 other carrier runs A346 to JNB.

The vast majority of the 40+ airlines do not fly long haul out of JNB. It's not an A346 vs. the world issue. It's a quad vs. twin issue. Most other airlines are not based at an airport that is 5,600ft above sea level. They can live with the "restrictions" of a single route. Nevertheless, the majority of carriers operating 5,000+nm routes out of JNB fly quads: AF, BA, VS, LH, QF. Only CX and SA)">DL fly a twin out of JNB.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 59):
Ultimately SA needs reform many things, but implementing a more cost efficient fleet is certainly part of the equation.

Maybe that will come with the next generation of twins, assuming they can come up with the money to pay for them. But for right now, they have the most cost effective long haul fleet that they can possibly get for an airline based in JNB.

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 55):
Blaming fuel burn for ones inability to run an airline is just stupid, and that -in my opinion- is not what they are. They know how to bleed the company dry and know full well the government will keep bailing them out. However it is the most *convenient* excuse while hiding their bigger more serious problems...

  
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:52 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 57):
Remove the A346 and SAA can't fly the routes from JNB, period.

Obviously the A346's will not be removed until replacements have been found, just like when the 747 fleet were progressively retired in favor of the A340 fleet.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 61):
AF, BA, VS, LH, QF. Only CX and SA)">DL fly a twin out of JNB.
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).  

Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-10 06:22:46]
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
MIflyer12
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 2:26 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 51):
I'm not sure what you're trying to get to but this topic has been discussed here on a.net ad nauseam, but not even the mighty 77L wil loutperform the A346 out of JNB.

I called out to ferpe specifically, as he has shown an ability to write concisely with data in a way that you (and zeke, in the link you gave) do not.

Clearly a 77L could operate all the long-haul routes of SAA today; all are shorter than JNB-ATL. If average yields are a problem it's not clear an aircraft with a lower passenger count is a handicap.

Sure, DL could bury losses in the ~4000 other flights a day it (and DL Connection carriers) operates but DL lacks sentimentality; it makes frequest adjustments to the route network and quickly kills off underperformers. The fact that DL has a variety of ULH routes to obtain decent utilization of its 10 77Ls is part of the argument that small carriers shouldn't try to play at ULH. Too small subfleets, and assignment to routes that don't need the capability, lead to non-competitive costs.
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:00 pm

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 58):
= Yes. But, I do think that you can minimize the bleeding in the interim.

I disagree on the principle that I pay South African taxes. Why should billions be spent to save hundreds of thousands due to a fuel burn delta. There is simply more wrong with SAA than just "buying a new fleet to solve our troubles".

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
Obviously the A346's will not be removed until replacements have been found

Certain routes will need a quad. Down to Oz and South America. Unless SA will be happy to make more of a loss running a twin to stay within the etops zones. Ask Virgin Oz how that turned out for them on the mighty big twin super fuel miser?
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LipeGIG
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 5:29 pm

Quoting PATRistar (Reply 30):
Next year we will have the world cup in Brazil and in 2016 the summer olympic games, If SAA drop the GRU flight TAAG will smile alone with the only link between the sub-ecuatorial Africa to Brazil.

As for the Olympics, TAAG Is already happy as they fly to the place where action will happen. I doubt SA will cut any flights to Sao Paulo right now ahead of the World Cup demand.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).

It seems foreign airlines know how to manage yields better.

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 56):
EZE has grown a lot (and certainly out grown the other routes) in 3 years, while SAO constantly declining.
Not a growth market? Sorry, not true.

Right. Argentina in fact is growing but political side has been a problem for foreign investors. But i do expect a nice turnaround soon ! Hope to see the old days of Buenos Aires back !
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 6:00 pm

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 64):
Ask Virgin Oz how that turned out for them on the mighty big twin super fuel miser?

That is true, I hear what you are saying. However keep in mind that they flew MEL-JNB-MEL whilst SA only fly JNB-PER-JNB. Surely SA would take less of "a hit" with regards to ETOPS than VA did?


Thanks and regards,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 7:45 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 66):
Surely SA would take less of "a hit" with regards to ETOPS than VA did?

Hi SA7700! Yes that is a valid point you make.



Herewith the differences between MEL and PER. ETOPS 120 180 and 240 shaded in. Even at ETOPS 180 they will have a significant detour, not factoring in if the winds are strong. Sometimes I see the QF Jumbo routing in over PE they had to go so far south to keep out of the headwinds...

I am not convinced a twin will ever be very successful on those routes unless SAA can get at least 330 min etops...
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SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 8:27 pm

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 67):
Sometimes I see the QF Jumbo routing in over PE they had to go so far south to keep out of the headwinds...

Thanks for the info Speedbird128 and the GCM, it is very interesting! I had no idea QF went as far South as PE. When I was on 63/64 (quite a few times), we always routed in via Richards Bay.

Thanks again and take care,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Sun Nov 10, 2013 9:16 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 68):
we always routed in via Richards Bay.

When I controlled FAJS Oceanic - as it was then called - I sometimes (I wouldn't be able to quantify the percentage of flights) had the QF Jumbo file more south than 60S. I remember more than once having them report the polar cap in sight... It must have been quite something. I have never had the luck of flying anything remotely that interesting LOL!

I have a picture somewhere of the radar screen with QF overhead/near PE...
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SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:27 am

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 69):
I remember more than once having them report the polar cap in sight... It must have been quite something. I have never had the luck of flying anything remotely that interesting LOL!

When we drifted towards Antarctica on the daylight flights from SYD-JNB the flight deck would alert us pax on numerous occasions that icebergs where now visible. It sure was spectacular to see and experience - almost surreal.  


In other news SAA has released this info, intending to continue to serve the Argentinian market through partnerships:

South African Airways (SAA), the South African national carrier, announced its full commitment to continue providing travel options to and from Argentina.

Although SAA will discontinue its own operated flights to Buenos Aires on the 28th of March next year, SAA customers will still be able to travel between both countries through numerous flights operated by SAA partners in South America.


SAA to continue serving the Argentinean market through partnerships


I hope this works out for them.

Thanks and regards,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
qf002
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:40 am

Quoting qf2220 (Reply 46):
I dont think there is a JBA between SA and QF. IIRC it is a 'hard block' capacity purchase agreement where each airline purchases capacity on the aircraft of the other carrier (at contracted rates) and markets it as its own. If it doesnt sell the seat, it wears the losses. I wouldnt call this a profit share.

Apologies, I don't know what I was thinking! I must be getting my QF partnerships mixed up (which isn't hard to do these days)...
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:19 am

Quoting qf002 (Reply 71):
Apologies, I don't know what I was thinking! I must be getting my QF partnerships mixed up

Not a problem at all. They remain codeshare partners and handle each other's pax in SYD and JNB. QF make use of SA lounges in JNB and not those of OneWorld partner BA. On the other end of the spectrum SA make use of the QF lounges in SYD and PER and not Star Alliance partner lounges.

Strange but true.  

Regards,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:34 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 63):
Clearly a 77L could operate all the long-haul routes of SAA today; all are shorter than JNB-ATL. If average yields are a problem it's not clear an aircraft with a lower passenger count is a handicap.

They could but at what cost? You can fly the 77L LHR-SYD if you really want to. That's not my argument. My argument is about the cost and revenue potential. You're focusing only on the daily operational cost, and ignoring the acquisition costs. You're also ignoring payload. Unless you know how much payload SAA carries on those flights, you can't tell for sure if the 77L is an appropriate aircraft. But most of all you're ignoring the fact that the 77L was only available after 2006.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 63):
Sure, SA)">DL could bury losses in the ~4000 other flights a day it (and SA)">DL Connection carriers) operates but SA)">DL lacks sentimentality; it makes frequest adjustments to the route network and quickly kills off underperformers. The fact that SA)">DL has a variety of ULH routes to obtain decent utilization of its 10 77Ls is part of the argument that small carriers shouldn't try to play at ULH. Too small subfleets, and assignment to routes that don't need the capability, lead to non-competitive costs.

But SA)">DL's network is far, far greater than SA's. The cost of operating a very expensive subfleet of 77L aircraft is easier to bare, than for a small airline like SA. Commonality plays a much more significant role in a small airline. SA)">DL already had the 772 in their fleet. Unless you are suggesting that SAA should have replaced their entire fleet of A340 which were only about 4 years old, when the 77L became available. Talk about a bad financial decision. In addition, the A340's probably came at an extremely good price since they were acquired during the post 9/11 "recession" and IIRC, at least some were SR's canceled frames.

So when you factor everything, the challenges of operating from JNB, the revenue potential on very long routes, the acquision costs, the offerings from Boeing (the 77L was not available), I have no problem saying that the A340 selection was one of, if not the only real good decision that SAA has made in the last 2 decades  
Quoting SA7700 (Reply 62):
BA flies with a mix of 744's and 77E's out of JNB-LHR. Before their A380's entered the fleet, AF had double daily 77W's out of JNB-CDG. CX748 and CX749 are flown with 744's most of the time (these days).

Right but the twins are the exception. Certainly in the Summer months. If you look at today's departures, anyone who has an available quad in their fleet is using it. That speaks volumes as to what aircraft is better out of JNB.
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:08 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 73):
Right but the twins are the exception. Certainly in the Summer months. If you look at today's departures, anyone who has an available quad in their fleet is using it. That speaks volumes as to what aircraft is better out of JNB.

That is sort of a broad generalization. Why is EK, QR, DL, EY, MS, BA (all flights), TK, TG, etc. not using their available quads out of JNB to various worldwide destinations then?

I don't wish to split hairs, but the time is going to come when quads will be replaced by twins out of JNB. Whether you like it or not. I have got absolutely nothing against quads, whether they are Airbus or Boeing.  


Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:45:29]
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:48 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 74):
That is sort of a broad generalization. Why is EK, QR, SA)">DL, EY, MS, BA (all flights), TK, TG, etc. not using their available quads out of JNB to various worldwide destinations then?

You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 74):
I don't wish to split hairs, but the time is going to come when quads will be replaced by twins out of JNB. Whether you like it or not. I have got absolutely nothing against quads, whether they are Airbus or Boeing.

Agree 100% and as I said above, it will happen with the next generation of twins. For now, anyone who can fly a quad out of JNB on those long routes, is using a quad. I would be shocked if TG's and SQ's 772ER flights are not restricted out of JNB.

[Edited 2013-11-11 07:52:31]
 
airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:58 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 75):
You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

It's too late to edit my posts above and I just realized that I mixed up the nm/mi distances. 5,000+ for routes to Europe would be in Miles, not Nautical Miles. That's my mistake. Nevertheless, my point still remains and that is, routes to CDG/LHR/FRA are all at least 1000nm longer than DOH/DXB/CAI/AUH and even IST which is just barely 4,000nm.
 
luckyone
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:43 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 75):
You're the one making generalizations. All my comments have been in the context of 5,000+ routes out of JNB. I made that clear. With the exception of BKK and ATL, all of those are sub 4000nm routes. Hardly the 5000+nm routes that AF, LH, SA, BA have to fly. And I did qualify my statement with "available". And you're 100% wrong about "BA all flights". Look at today's departures. They are both 744's, as it was yesterday and as it will be tomorrow.

As recently as August BA was sending the 777 into JNB. Air France also operated the 77W into JNB in lieu of the 747s they had in their fleet. This could suggest that the choice of the A380 is done in the interests of capacity.
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:22 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 76):
Nevertheless, my point still remains and that is, routes to CDG/LHR/FRA are all at least 1000nm longer than DOH/DXB/CAI/AUH and even IST which is just barely 4,000nm.


I totally hear what you are saying, but just to recap...

Keep SA236/237 (JNB-LHR-JNB) in mind. It is a daily A332. (5620mi; 4884nm).

Also the daily KL 592/591 (772) between JNB-AMS-JNB. (5583mi, 4852nm).

Both twins from JNB to Europe / UK over 5000mi.


Have a great day. Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-11 23:13:25]
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speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:04 am

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 78):
Keep SA236/237 (JNB-LHR-JNB) in mind. It is a daily A332. (5620mi; 4884nm).

But SAA fly empty LOL!   

Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR? I'd almost be certain that it won't manage full pax and cargo out of JNB... Is SA operating the 242t version?

I know airbus quote 7200nm as max range, but I don't believe that figure is for full pax and full cargo at 5558' take-off altitude on a 25+C day...

I'm not saying they definitely take a payload hit - I was just wondering if they do...?
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:23 am

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR?

I'm not sure - I can't say without a doubt whether they take a payload hit or not on JNB-LHR. That being said they operate A330-243's with RR Trent 772B-60's.

Have a great day,


SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
behramjee
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:45 am

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
I know airbus quote 7200nm as max range, but I don't believe that figure is for full pax and full cargo at 5558' take-off altitude on a 25+C day...

fyi whenever looking at the published stated range of an aircraft by Airbus and Boeing, you can easily deduct 15% to gain a more accurate outlook !

[Edited 2013-11-12 01:47:46]
 
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:06 pm

Quoting luckyone (Reply 77):
As recently as August BA was sending the 777 into JNB. Air France also operated the 77W into JNB in lieu of the 747s they had in their fleet. This could suggest that the choice of the A380 is done in the interests of capacity.

August is Winter in JNB. That and the lighter loads should explain that. Again, my point is not that the twin can't fly the route. My point is that a quad has greater payload capacity and thus greater revenue potential. Now, this being SAA, like I said in replies 9 and 48, I doubt that even with a full payload and high yields they would be able to make money  
Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 79):
Seriously though - is there any capacity penalty on that A332 to LHR?

I'm curious about that too. My assumption is that with a second daily operating an A346, any cargo that can't make it onto the A332 can go on the A346, so they could operate the A332 with nothing by pax and their bags if it comes to that.
 
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:17 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 82):
I doubt that even with a full payload and high yields they would be able to make money  

That's fact. Not supposition. They wouldn't have needed 17 billion in bailout money to keep going otherwise...

Quoting airbazar (Reply 82):
they could operate the A332 with nothing by pax and their bags if it comes to that.

I'd be surprised if this isn't what they are doing.... I just don't see the 332 having the legs for pax+bags+cargo...
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:16 pm

The A330 has been going to LHR for 2-years now, summer and winter.
Also MUC has been getting the A330 this year as well, same with Sao Paulo as well, while BOM is an all A330 dest.

So if the A330 was so bad, no reason to send it. SA could easily use one of the 343/346s and keep the A330 close to home.

This argument that A340 or a quad is the only viable for JNB is yesterdays argument. Same with those nostalgic folks that hang onto the 744. Those are yesterdays planes.

SA needs more modern cost efficient fleet and move beyond the 340 ASAP.

I knew the 340 was dead when colleagues at Airbus stopped making presentations for the model over 10-years ago and instead place the 330 option in front of customers. Prior they always try to show both choices and sell the family concept.
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:33 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
So if the A330 was so bad, no reason to send it. SA could easily use one of the 343/346s and keep the A330 close to home.

That's exactly what they are doing, relatively speaking. LHR is the only really long A332 route and they have an A346 as backup. Even JNB-GRU is barely 4,000nm.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
This argument that A340 or a quad is the only viable for JNB is yesterdays argument. Same with those nostalgic folks that hang onto the 744. Those are yesterdays planes.

No one is saying that. The argument I am making is that a quad has better performance out of JNB and SAA still benefits from having a fleet of quads not only because of the altitude but because of their flights to S.America and Australia.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 84):
SA needs more modern cost efficient fleet and move beyond the 340 ASAP.

Agree. But who's going to pay for them? And assuming they can pay for them, I still say they would lose money hand over fist which brings us back to the begining of this thread. It is not about the airplane.

[Edited 2013-11-12 10:39:07]
 
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:11 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 85):
That's exactly what they are doing, relatively speaking. LHR is the only really long A332 route and they have an A346 as backup. Even JNB-GRU is barely 4,000nm.

They also do MUC on the 330 somedays as well. Thats a pretty haul.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 85):
It is not about the airplane.

Airplane is certainly part of the cost problem. If your seat cost are being handicapped by flying less then efficient model, your bottom line will see the burden.

According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.
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airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:50 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):

Airplane is certainly part of the cost problem. If your seat cost are being handicapped by flying less then efficient model, your bottom line will see the burden.

According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.

No my logic is that the revenue potential of the existing fleet is greater than the revenue potential if they incur the cost of upgrading the fleet to newer but soon to be old generation twins. The way SAA is run, no amount of fuel burn savings will ever make up for the cost of a full fleet refresh.

I really don't want to start this again   I don't believe that there are more efficient planes in that size category for routes out of JNB to Europe and no one here has provided any evidence to the contrary so we'll have to agree to disagree and leave it at that. The A343 and A346 lift significantly more payload than any twin (except may the 77L vs. A343), out of JNB to Europe, which should make up for the higher fuel consumption. If SAA can't generate enough revenue to make money on their A343 and A346 routes the problem is not the plane, it's the airline's management who can't fill the plane. Or maybe they do fill the plane up but waste money somewhere else.
 
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Tue Nov 12, 2013 7:53 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):
According to your logic then SA should have stuck with its 707 or 747SP fleet as well.

Yes they should have kept the SP fleet. If I as a taxpayer are going to throw away billions of my hard earned money in handouts, at least let me see a SP flying.

I agree entirely with airbazar. Its not about the fleet that is causing SAA financial hardship. As I have said before, the fuel-burn delta between these fleets is not enough to have caused a deficit of R17 BILLION. That is pathetic airline management and a inefficient workforce. Perhaps with a new fleet they will get a new staffing. But that won't happen.

So SA will continue to lose billions with no accountability and just blame it on their fleet. Lufthansa most certainly don't seem to be billions in debt due to their big A346 and B744 fleets, yet SAA see fit to say its their reason. I don't accept that.
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:11 am

Yes it is a very sad state of affairs for SAA. If I think about it I can see SAA dropping longhaul altogether, focus on regional and domestic. Maybe see more carriers flying into JNB if SAA decide to relent of their hold on slots and the ridiculous money they charge for parking slots. One of the reasons we dont see more foreign carriers here. My 2 cents
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:32 am

Quoting SA744 (Reply 89):
Maybe see more carriers flying into JNB if SAA decide to relent of their hold on slots and the ridiculous money they charge for parking slots. One of the reasons we dont see more foreign carriers here.

IMMHO it is due to yields. Many carriers have entered and exited over the years - most of the time due to poor yields and as far as I can recall, never due to slots or parking fees. I stand corrected.  


Regards,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:33 am

Quoting SA744 (Reply 89):
If I think about it I can see SAA dropping longhaul altogether, focus on regional and domestic.

Hi Chris!

One of the past CEO's had said this was his plan all along - i don't remember which CEO as they seemed to have changed quite often. However I remember a statement saying he wanted to can the european flights in their entirety, and focus on regional growth.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 86):
Thats a pretty haul

Well a new A330 has a pretty good advertised range - however I don't know what that translates to out of JNB.

Does anybody here have info wrt to the loading of these A332's on long-haul? I am not convinced it will make it to Europe with any meaningful load beyond pax and bags, but I am most happy to be proven wrong. It would be handy to have some real figures so we could actually debate the performance of the A332/A343/A346 on a JNB-LHR/MUC segment with real facts.

In my time at JNB I once had a chat with the crew of the 77L and they had the almost unique problem of tyre rotation speed that limited their TOW. However I believe the A330/A340 have lower Vr speeds so that doesn't come into play, its OEO / V2 / second segment climb/Vfs/Third Segment limitations.

So far we have established that the A332 can definitely make it to Europe. But can it make it with a profitable load? That's the million rand question. Both LHR and FRA routes have the ability to send the cargo on the partner city (in the case of A346 to FRA) and partner flight (in the case of the A340 to LHR) to make up the "lost" revenue. However if both of those routes/countries were solely A332 would we be seeing bigger red numbers or route axings?

EDIT: Grammar, and not to say that the 77L is immune from OEO and ensuing complications limitations.

[Edited 2013-11-13 00:35:59]
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airbazar
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:32 pm

Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 91):
So far we have established that the A332 can definitely make it to Europe. But can it make it with a profitable load? That's the million rand question

I'd say it's more like a 5 cent question   No way it makes money. SAA has one of the lowest seat desities you'll ever find in an A332 (only 222 seats), with only J and Y. No F and no Y+. It is basically a low density leisure config airplane flying a 5,000nm route and unable to uplift much if any cargo. So the revenue side is incredibly limited to begin with. I would be shocked if they are making money on these routes. The good news for SAA's management is that they dont have to work very hard make money because they are limited by the airplane's capability so they have extra time to play golf, or rugby, or what it is that they do over there.
I have a family member of mine who has worked in the airline industry his entire life, both as a pilot and in operations, and he always tells me that the difference between a big plane and a smaller plane amounts to how hard management has to work to reach its full potential. And I believe that, especially after seeing how EK is able to fill all of those A380's seemingly out of thin air  
 
upwardfacing
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:13 pm

Rather than drop EZE, I rather thought they would be adding to their South American network: GIG and SCL in particular.
 
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Fyano773
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:56 am

Quoting AR326 (Reply 36):
Here's a detailed analysis that answers a lot of the questions being posed in this thread http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...36900

According to that article, SAA is playing a new role in the airline biz:


SAA is committed to staying in Star and using Star’s European members to provide coverage in Europe. But SAA is also open to forging new European partnerships outside Star, as it has done with Etihad and JetBlue. The strategy essentially is to be a prostitute and to go to bed with whichever carrier is the best fit in each market, regardless of alliance membership.


...nice wording by CAPA!

:D

[Edited 2013-11-13 17:03:34]
 
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aal151heavy
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RE: SAA Drops EZE, Looks To Trim Other Longhaul

Thu Nov 14, 2013 4:17 am

I have flown on this flight, SA 226 from JNB to EZE. Sad to see it go.  

It was a memorable flight in that it was a South Atlantic crossing (unique routing), the service was excellent, and I flew on ZS-SXD, the one in the 2012 Summer Olympics scheme.


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Szabo Gabor



When I flew on this flight May of this year, I was in Business Class on an award ticket. There were only five other passengers in Business. As it turned out, the person seated behind me was the captain's companion, so I doubt she paid for her ticket. So that left potentially only four fare-paying Business passengers. The second Business cabin was curtained off with lights off...eerie to see - it was like a ghost cabin!

Back of the 'Bus was filled with Chinese tourists - I surmised all from the same tour group. They all connected to JNB from HKG from somewhere in China. I was surprised to see this as I would have expected a connection through North America would have been the more efficient routing. But given US visa requirements, TSA hassles, etc, it might have been worthwhile to connect via Africa. It was funny to hear recorded announcements in Mandarin flying on a South African airline to Argentina!

Granted this was only one flight. Nevertheless, I doubt SAA made money that day flying a tour group and four fare-paying Business passengers.
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