Now that the DOJ lawsuit has gone the way of the dodo bird, we can get down to what the future holds for the "new" American Airlines. What exactly will their fleet look like? 737 Classic, 737NG, 737MAX, 757, 767, 777, 787, A320CEO, A320NEO, A350! Don't forget a few MD-80 series aircraft lingering on and the odd Embraer. Everything under the sun in the way of "modern" aviation will be taxing around the terminals of the new merged "American". A fleet almost as diverse as the country it is named after!

It would seem that one outside company that wins from this merger is Boeing. They had held sway with AA for quite some time but in the last round of orders, due to the shear magnitude, Airbus was able to place an extremely large number of A32X family jetliners firmly in "Boeing Country". A small crack in the chink of Boeing armor at AA by Airbus has somehow turned into a massive flood gate opening for Boeing. What a turn of events, as one of Airbus's largest "exclusive" customers in US Airways is now set for demise. Airbus had all but rendered Boeing aircraft obsolete at US Airways spare the few 737-400s still in operation alongside an extremely small fleet of 757s/767s.

With the merger, a burgeoning fleet of 737-800 and 737-Max series aircraft are now squarely operating in what was once "Airbus Dominated" pastures. No longer will the eye not see masses of 737s in Charlotte!!!! This in addition to an impressive fleet of 767/777/787 aircraft overshadowing the now smallish A330/A350 fleet. With 42 787s set to operate on behalf of AA, one has to wonder if the A350 order isn't modified to exclude the -800 or swapped for additional A32X aircraft.. It will also be interesting to see how brand new 777-300ERs are put to use on this route system.

Interesting times indeed!

[Edited 2013-11-12 19:41:14]

The new AA will simply be too large and demand too many aircrafts to be reliant on one manufacturer. For the next 10-15 years the new AA fleet is really already set. MAX/NEO/350/787 plus their existing fleet. I don't really see the new AA ordering the 779 but definitely could eventually see some A35J in the fleet.

How much of an increase in capacity would the 777-9X hold over the current 777-300ERs AA has on order? AA only has 2 of the birds on rotation and already we are discussing replacements!!!!

One has to wonder what fleet management will do with dual rated 777-200ER/300ER & 787 pilots. Almost a one stop shopt for long haul at AA! Very similar to what the 737NG/Max and A320CEO/NEO fleets will be like.

I was looking at the loads for the A321 for AA they have 10F 20C and 72Y will AA make $$ off LAX-JFK route? That seams like so little seats!

[Edited 2013-11-12 19:51:42]

Quoting jetsetterusa (Reply 3): 10F 20C

Premium demand can pay for the flight, especially on that route.

One simply needs to look at the A321 configuration difference between American and US Airways. US Airways packs them in (like UA/Delta on the 753) while AA has a more premium configuration:

US Airways:
http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/US_Airways/US_Airways_Airbus_A321.php
16F/171Y=187 total

AA new A321T:
10F/20C/36Y+/36Y=102 total

I do realize that the new AA A321 is entirely in a different market than US. The AA ones are for premium trans-con while US flies them on routes as long as PHL-LAX packing them in with volume.

Also I will note that AA will soon discover the cost and CASM efficiency of US'es A330 fleet (specifically the -300) as Delta has discovered (291 seats, 28C suites /263Y) in which when you can FILL the seats the A330 operating cost is less than the 777 because it has less range (which is perfect because you don't need the dead-weight on trans-Atlantic and South America flights, only the Pacific network is the extra range needed).

Actually with this merger AA gains the ultimate fleet that Delta has (both A330 and 777 like some European carriers).

The load on the AA A321 does seem a little light for such a well traveled route. What does a current day AA 757 operate with?

One aircraft I really think will shine with the new AA is the 787-8. AA and US operate a massive fleet of 767 aircrat. With such a penchant for international flights in that seat category, the 787-8 or 787-9 could really clean house at AA and make the new carrier plenty $$$.

If this merger goes through the A358 implications are interesting. An order modification seems likely.

A351 or 779 seems likely. Their 77Ws are 10 abreast in Y and 9 abreast in Y+ and won't need replacing for 25 years  

tortugamon

Quoting CX747 (Thread starter): Now that the DOJ lawsuit has gone the way of the dodo bird,

I love that......... the DOJ sure was a dumb Dodo for opposing this merger in the first place! Anyway, back on topic........ I do think that the 779 is likely.

We are heading to a new blood bath on domestic flights , if onyone thinks that Jetblue, Southwest, Delta and United will just sit and see a gigantic AA have a large share of the market without a fight, is just delusional.

AA is so big that they will order aircraft in big orders from both A and B.

Its a pity because the domestic industry seemed like growing again and now this big merger will turn the scales...

I already have plenty of popcorn...

TRB

The original order plans for the 787 was for 42 787-9s and 58 options. Then the order was changed to 22 787-8s and 20 787-9s, plus options for 58 of any model, so we'll see.

Quoting CX747 (Thread starter): What exactly will their fleet look like? 737 Classic, 737NG, 737MAX, 757, 767, 777, 787, A320CEO, A320NEO, A350!

And the A330 that will probably stick around for quite some time.

In fact, their fleet is going to be quite similar to DL's and UA's (in the big picture of things), in the sense that it will have most modern airliner families in large numbers, without having more than one major family totally omitted (excl. VLA).

I believe US is replacing their 767s with A330s, and their 737s are being phase out already with new airbus. I think we might see an order to replace the old airbuses in US fleet.

I'm more curious about how fast AA/US will be able to retire the fleet of 767-200s as well as the 737-400 fleet. Both of those types are incredibly outdated and need to see an accelerated departure. However, I do wonder if AA will have enough lift when they retire all those aircraft. Does anybody have any details about retirement of aircraft on the US side?

I can't wait to see the cross-fleeting begin. I would love to see some A330's at LAX, ORD, JFK, MIA and DFW.

Quoting oc2dc (Reply 13): I'm more curious about how fast AA/US will be able to retire the fleet of 767-200s as well as the 737-400 fleet. Both of those types are incredibly outdated and need to see an accelerated departure. However, I do wonder if AA will have enough lift when they retire all those aircraft. Does anybody have any details about retirement of aircraft on the US side?

i don't know about the 762s but the 737 should be gone by 2014 i think! but since AA-US is merging we will still see 737s :p

Quoting CX747 (Reply 2): AA only has 2 of the birds on rotation and already we are discussing replacements!!!!

Okay, the AA website says they have two, Boeing says they have 7 and then the new painted aircraft thread list says that they have 9... which is correct?

Sources:
AA's site

Boeing's site

New AA Painted Aircraft - Part 3

Quoting jetsetterusa (Reply 14): i don't know about the 762s but the 737 should be gone by 2014 i think! but since AA-US is merging we will still see 737s

In 2014 US Airways will take delivery of 3 x A330-200's and 17 A321's while retiring 14 734's, 4 older A320's and 3 x 762's. If anything the merger will mean the remaining 762's get retired quicker especially as AA will be able to free up some of their 763 fleet from domestic flying as the new transcon A321's are delivered.

Quoting willzzz88 (Reply 5): Also I will note that AA will soon discover the cost and CASM efficiency of US'es A330 fleet (specifically the -300) as Delta has discovered (291 seats, 28C suites /263Y) in which when you can FILL the seats the A330 operating cost is less than the 777 because it has less range (which is perfect because you don't need the dead-weight on trans-Atlantic and South America flights, only the Pacific network is the extra range needed).

But, what is the cargo capacity of the A330 fleet, as it compares to the 777s? Remember that AA Cargo does contribute a fairly substantial amount of revenue. I've sat on 738s during boarding and watched a large amount of mail and cargo go into the hold. One would expect that the amount of cargo traveling in a 777 from ORD, MIA, and JFK to Europe and South America is quite substantial.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 6): The load on the AA A321 does seem a little light for such a well traveled route. What does a current day AA 757 operate with?

Remember that the initial A321s will have the 3-class configuration for trans-con service that has demand for premium seats. Later on, AA will get A321s with configurations more like the 757-200s that will leave the fleet over time. AA carries a number of people affiliated with the entertainment industry and financial services, and they are paying for F and J seats.

IIRC, 757s with the older cabin is 22F and 166Y, while the new cabin has 2 extra F seats. The A321s will have the same number of Y seats, but I think it's only 16 in First.

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 15): Okay, the AA website says they have two, Boeing says they have 7 and then the new painted aircraft thread list says that they have 9... which is correct?

9 is the correct number:

http://www.planespotters.net/Product...e=777-300&fleet=5432&fleetStatus=1

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 15): Okay, the AA website says they have two, Boeing says they have 7 and then the new painted aircraft thread list says that they have 9... which is correct?

I stand corrected, but from what I know it is 9 frames. The registration numbers and delivery dates:

N717AN 11.11.2012
N718AN 19.12.2012
N719AN 28.01.2013
N720AN 20.02.2013
N721AN 19.03.2013
N722AN 25.04.2013
N723AN 28.05.2013
N724AN 26.06.2013
N725AN 31.07.2013


Regards,

SA7700

I have a few questions

Is the 130 aircraft order for the 320 Ceo family split evenly between the 319 and the 321 ?

have AA anounced a 321 cabin config for their non premium 321s?

Would the merged entity have a standard cabin, as in IFE with PTV on each seat,? because as far as i know US airways stripped down all forms of IFE from even their transcon 321s


My take on the fleet is

319/738/321 and their Neo and MAX counterparts for their entire domestic ops

763/332 to be eventually replaced by 788/789

333/77E to be eventually replaced by 359

77W...too new a procument to comment on

I think this mix keeps both A and B happy, which is necessary as the manufacturers are financing a part of their fleet renewal plans

Karan

Just one point - isn't US the driving force here? Just because AA is the larger of the two carriers does not mean that Boeing automatically wins if the ultimate leadership of the merged airline pulling the strings is from US. I think CX747 may be jumping the gun here. Of course any good management will weigh up the options from all manufacturers rather than committing to orders on the basis of historical preferences - look at JAL for example.

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 20): My take on the fleet is 319/738/321 and their Neo and MAX counterparts for their entire domestic ops 763/332 to be eventually replaced by 788/789 333/77E to be eventually replaced by 359 77W...too new a procument to comment on I think this mix keeps both A and B happy, which is necessary as the manufacturers are financing a part of their fleet renewal plans

AA and US both have a unique niche for their long range 757s. MIA-ASU, MIA-LPB-VVI-MIA, PHL/CLT-LIS, ect. No NEO / MAX is going to fly those routes and the 763/788 seems to me like too much airplane. Where's the new small medium range jet?

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 15): Okay, the AA website says they have two, Boeing says they have 7 and then the new painted aircraft thread list says that they have 9... which is correct?

I don't know where you're looking on Boeing's site, but when I checked, it shows 9 delivered.

Which 757s are younger AA or US?

Quoting arielwar (Reply 24): Which 757s are younger AA or US?

From what I can see on external websites it is quite diverse and I do stand corrected.  

US' first frame (N901AW) was delivered to then Republic Airlines on 19.12.1985. Their youngest frame is N207UW which was delivered to North American Airlines on 03.06.2001.

American's first frame (N613AA) was delivered on 11.08.1989. Their youngest frame is N172AJ which was delivered to American on 30.04.2002

N901AW - 27.9 years
N207UW - 15.5 years
N613AA - 24.3 years
N172AJ - 11.6 years

Regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-11-13 05:14:03]

Quoting ckfred (Reply 17): One would expect that the amount of cargo traveling in a 777 from ORD, MIA, and JFK to Europe and South America is quite substantial.

You are right, it is subtantial but as far as I know,the larger majority of cargo flows from Europe and South America to the US. The same with Tpac freight. While off the subject slightly, the same holds true for passenger traffic. the majority originates from Europe, South America and Asia

Quoting Candid76 (Reply 21):

US might have been the driving force of the merger but the sheer size of American's pre-merger fleet when compared to US Airway's fleet is amazing. As others have posted, the new fleet will need to be supplied by two manufacturers. That right there is a win for Boeing. US Airways as a stand alone carrier wasn't ordering any Washington/South Carolina State products. Now that fleet of homogenious A32X/A330 family aircraft is coming to an end.

With the merger, the "new" fleet of narrowbodies will go from 95% Airbus at US Airways to almost 50/50 Boeing/Airbus fleet between the 737NG/MAX and A320CEO/NEO. We also need to see what place the 757 has in the new fleet with the advent of the A321. Also, the pre-merger US Airways (PMUS) A320 fleet is older than the pre-merger American (PMA) 737NG fleet. So we may see PMUS A320s being replaced by 737MAX or even 737NG products if timing falls that way.

The widebody fleet of US Airways was predominately A330s with a small stable of 767-200ERs. Now the "majority" A330 fleet of US Airways will be the "small" stable when compared to the overall number of 767/777/787 series aircraft that are inbound. With the 787 set to numerically replace the 767, that Boeing majority should be firm. As has been rumored before, the pre-merger order for A350-800s may even be changed. Maybe they go all -900 or even swap out for narrowbodies to replace the older A32Xs in the fleet. The 777-300ER wasn't even a factor in the PMUS but now serves as the "Flagship" in a ever increasing number. The 77W fleet as it is stands at almost 50% of what the entire PMUS Airbus widebody fleet rested at come 11/13/2013.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 28):

I don't think it's gonna be around 50/50 between the two manufactures. It's certainly going to be a predominately Airbus fleet, with all the A320s that US is bringing, plus AA has more A320s on order than the 737s, (260 firm with an option for over 400 for Airbus, and 200 firm and 200 options from Boeing) Once the 767/757/MD80s are retired airbus will be the largest for the new airline, especially if they excerise those options.

But the way American aviation is going, there is no way the carriers can depend on just one manufacturer.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4): Premium demand can pay for the flight, especially on that route.

This could well be true if the people in the premium cabins passengers were actually parting with cash for the seats instead of using free upgrades. My guess is that most airlines would consider that breakdown as proprietary information and would never divulge it but just from casual gate observation I believe that the vast majority in domestic premium cabins are doing so in exchange for mileage or frequent flyer status.

This merger could pose some interesting logistical questions for DL and UA. Both seem to have taken a "wait and see" attitude towards this newest marriage. I am wondering if this will force them (especially DL) to make an immediate decision on long-range fleet replacements in order to hold manufacturing slots. I recall in the past when some carriers had a virtual lock on line positions for a year or more at a time. DL has publicly said they would be needing a 744 replacement and probably a 763 replacement as well. Locking in a type and a cost now might be beneficial.

My next question--with the majors all locked up will we see the creation of mega-LCC's like B6/WN or B6/Spirit along with the demise of some of the juicier tidbits like Alaska and HA. Stay tuned.

At what point do the talking heads on television start talking about "too big to merge?" There are already rumblings about the cost of airfares rapidly rising due to decreased competition.

I don't see this new airline ordering any new airframes any time soon. But I can't wait to see the A330s in that awesome AA livery 

One thing that is forgotten in most of the merger talk is the massive number of American 737NG frames the carrier operates, had on order and placed additional orders for. Overall, the number of 737NGs will outnumber the A319/320 series in the new American. I ran some numbers. I know it doesn't take into effect some retirements but in a nutshell.

Boeing Narrowbodies=520

305 737-800s
100 737-Max
115 757-200

Airbus Narrowbodies=516

228 A319/320
158 A321-200CEO
130 A321-200NEO

Boeing Widebodies=188

79 767-200/300
47 777-200ER
20 777-300ER
12 787-8
30 787-9

Airbus Widebodies=46

15 A330-200
9 A330-300
18 A350-800
4 A350-900



Now, those numbers are hard to predict because the comings and goings of the fleet will fluctuate. We also do not know how the new carrier will readjust retirement dates (forward/backward). As for exercising options, that is anyone's guess.

It will be a shame to see the US livery go, I much prefer it to the new AA livery

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 30): This could well be true if the people in the premium cabins passengers were actually parting with cash for the seats instead of using free upgrades. My guess is that most airlines would consider that breakdown as proprietary information and would never divulge it but just from casual gate observation I believe that the vast majority in domestic premium cabins are doing so in exchange for mileage or frequent flyer status.

Except on the early AM JFK-LAX flights...those suckers are LOADED with Expense Account purchases in J and F classes.

The A330/77E replacement is going to be an interesting order when it comes down the road. Looking at AA/US's route structure and their order book the 787-10 makes a lot of sense. They do have some longer routes like ORD-PVG and PHL-TLV but by and large their longest routes are using partner's metal and the vast majority of the routes that they operate are under 11 hours.

If they order the -10 then the A359 does not make a lot of sense and the market for the A351 is recently being filled with the 77Ws. However, on some of the longer routes if they do have cargo opportunities and they don't have the demand for a 77W (PHL-TLV for example) the A359 is clearly the better option.

tortugamon

I wonder if any new US deliveries in 2014 (since the merger is closing in 2013) will be in the AA colors?

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 29): I don't think it's gonna be around 50/50 between the two manufactures. It's certainly going to be a predominately Airbus fleet, with all the A320s that US is bringing, plus AA has more A320s on order than the 737s, (260 firm with an option for over 400 for Airbus, and 200 firm and 200 options from Boeing) Once the 767/757/MD80s are retired airbus will be the largest for the new airline, especially if they excerise those options.

The way things are boiling down, the fleet will be heavily Airbus domestically and Boeing international.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 32): Boeing Narrowbodies=520 305 737-800s 100 737-Max 115 757-200

Most of the 757s will be replaced by A321s (both CEO and NEO) - IIRC, PMAA wanted to cut down the 757 fleet to 36 frames. With the addition of the PMUS birds, that number will probably increase by a bit.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 32): Airbus Narrowbodies=516 228 A319/320 158 A321-200CEO 130 A321-200NEO

Seems about right.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 32): Boeing Widebodies=188 79 767-200/300 47 777-200ER 20 777-300ER 12 787-8 30 787-9

Actually, it's 22 787-8s and 20 -9s.

Quoting CX747 (Reply 32): Airbus Widebodies=46 15 A330-200 9 A330-300 18 A350-800 4 A350-900

I suspect that the A350s will either go to 100% -900s or swapped for more A319s (CEO, NEO, or a mix depending on the Airbus order books) to accelerate the MD-80 retirements.

Quoting rj777 (Reply 8): Quoting CX747 (Thread starter): Now that the DOJ lawsuit has gone the way of the dodo bird, I love that......... the DOJ sure was a dumb Dodo for opposing this merger in the first place! Anyway, back on topic........ I do think that the 779 is likely.

Part of it was due to domination of some airports, such as DCA, where they would have controlled 70% of the traffic. That isn't good for competition or customers, resulting in one thing....higher prices. Everyone may get excited about the mergers and plane orders and all, but they drive fewer customer choices and increased airline pricing power.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 38): Actually, it's 22 787-8s and 20 -9s.

Its 12 787-8s and 30 787-9s.

American Airlines (USA)
787-8 GE 01-Feb-2013 12 - 12 -
787-9 GE 01-Feb-2013 30 - 30 -
Subtotal 42 - 42

Taken from Boeings website.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 17): One would expect that the amount of cargo traveling in a 777 from ORD, MIA, and JFK to Europe and South America is quite substantial.

It is, I don't know about ORD, but JFK and MIA have huge amounts of cargo. AA is the number one mover of cargo at JFK, more than FedEx and carrying far more than DL. AA has been thrilled with the extra amount of cargo that can be carried on the 77Ws at JFK. Besides GRU and LHR on the 77Ws, other huge cargo markets for AA at JFK are EZE, CDG and MXP.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 30): Quoting phxa340 (Reply 4): Premium demand can pay for the flight, especially on that route. This could well be true if the people in the premium cabins passengers were actually parting with cash for the seats instead of using free upgrades. My guess is that most airlines would consider that breakdown as proprietary information and would never divulge it but just from casual gate observation I believe that the vast majority in domestic premium cabins are doing so in exchange for mileage or frequent flyer status.

Unlike the typical route (mainline or Eagle), AA has a few routes where premium seats are booked without miles or upgrades. Out of JFK, it's LAX and SFO. Compared to most routes out of ORD, LGA and LAX also see higher numbers of first class seats that are paid for, rather than reserved with miles or upgrades.

This was a while back, but my wife and I got bumped off an LAS-ORD non-stop, and were rerouted via LAX. We got upgraded on LAS-LAX, but not on LAX-ORD. The agent said that First was full. Yet, when we pushed back at LAX, my wife counted 6 empty seats in First (and that was back when the 738s had 20 seats in First).

I mentioned this to a friend of mine who is an AA pilot. He said that unlike most routes, people in Los Angeles will double and triple-book seats in First to Chicago and New York.

The reason that AA kept the 762 fleet in 3-class configurations is that sells a lot of F and J seats. It flies a lot of celbrities and movie/recording executives. It's the same reason why AA has 2 daily non-stops between LAX and BNA, the music business.

Quoting CX747 (Thread starter): It would seem that one outside company that wins from this merger is Boeing. They had held sway with AA for quite some time but in the last round of orders, due to the shear magnitude, Airbus was able to place an extremely large number of A32X family jetliners firmly in "Boeing Country". A small crack in the chink of Boeing armor at AA by Airbus has somehow turned into a massive flood gate opening for Boeing. What a turn of events, as one of Airbus's largest "exclusive" customers in US Airways is now set for demise. Airbus had all but rendered Boeing aircraft obsolete at US Airways spare the few 737-400s still in operation alongside an extremely small fleet of 757s/767s. With the merger, a burgeoning fleet of 737-800 and 737-Max series aircraft are now squarely operating in what was once "Airbus Dominated" pastures.

You see the glass half-full for Boeing, and there is nothing wrong with that, but you do realize that it is also very easy to see it half-empy, right? After all AA, an airline which a few years ago was all-B will now be 50/50 A/B (on a frame count basis, once you take into account the ∼100 Boeing frames that are scheduled to be retired at both AA & US) and will be in the hands of a management team which in the past has showed a marked pro-Airbus preference when ordering aircraft. I am not so sure the guys in Seattle (Chicago?) are popping champagne bottles!   

There is no question that domestically, the fleet is going to be 737's and Airbus 320 going forward, with some E190s as well. I think the use of the 757 on domestic flights outside of Hawaii is going to be very limited going forward. The question I have is will US/AA adopt the former AA strategy of segregating AC type by hubs? For example, the 737's would be primarily based out of MIA, DFW, and ORD, the Airbus' would be primarily LGA, PHL, CLT, PHX, DFW and LAX based? The fleets may just be too big for that now, but it is something worth watching.

As for Widebodies, I believe much of what happens here depends on how AA wants to play Asia going forward. Given that they are launching PVG and HKG from DFW, these could be idea routes for a 787 if the 777 proves to be too much capactiy. Since we all expect PHL-NRT to be launched, I suspect this will also be a 787. As for the A330's, I could easily see the A330 replacing the 777 on some european routes currently flown by AA. The A330 presence will also allow the 767 to be streamlined, thus you will see them begin to be limited to JFK and PHL in the long term as I do see A330 capacity in ORD replacing some existing 767 traffic there. I don't know exactly how it will play out though.

One last thing I wanted to talk about is the Eagle/Express fleet. After the new deal with PSA that US just signed, the two biggest 50 seat operators post merger are Air Wisconsin and Eagle. Air Wisconsin is still around until at least 2015, and they recently posted some of their best operating numbers in their entire history of flying for USAirways. There won't be a big need for 50 seat lift but there will be some, and if AA is unable to spin off eagle, it will be much easier to park MQ 50 seaters than it will be to park ZW 50 seaters. So I think this merger is good for ZW long term as realistically holding onto the current flying is really the only chance they have to remain viable long term. That being said, I don't know how many 50 seaters AA will want going forward. It certainly won't be a repeat of what you are seeing with UA and their own 50 seaters. The only other question going forward though is with the 76 seat flying. AA has premerger deals with Republic for this, and Republic's relationship with US goes back to their bankruptcy. Mesa just upped a deal to extend the 900 flying, so they are secure for a while. However, by PSA ratifying their agreement, and MQ telling AA to pound sand, the PSA pilots have put themselves in a better position to win bigger jets, though AA clearly wants to give bigger jets to MQ as well. With all that said, here is how I see it by hub in the future.

DFW - Its mainly a mainline station, so I don't expect E Jets to show up, but I would expect some of the Mesa 900 flying to be moved here, as the B terminal is perfect for them. Aside from that, I suspect this will be pretty status quo.

ORD - You are already seeing republic EJets here. One of the interesting things here is that Shuttle America operates 170's for UA and DL here. The reason this is important is because of the way Republic is set up, you have two different certificates in one city, and because crews are limited to one certificate, they lose flexibility in how they schedule crews here. If this hasn't been raised by IBT in negotiations, it should be. That being said, I suspect post merger that AA will be more aggressive here. What that means exactly I do not know, but I suspect you will see bigger RJ's in here, and the MQ 50 seat fleet will be cut here.

PHL - There is a ton of money being spent at the moment on F concourse upgrades, which means that express will be an important factor here going forward. This is ZW's biggest hub, but if AA wants to shift JFK traffic to PHL for international purposes, they could need bigger planes to do so. The other question here is the Dash-8s and their future? There are markets that won't work without them.

CLT - This is an airport that is near saturation in terms of gate space and utilization by USAirways. The changes here won't be in frequency, but capacity. What will free up a bit of capacity will be AA shifting Caribbean traffic to MIA where it makes more sense. But this hub will serve a role no other hub in the system can. What happens with the PSA fleet will determine what happens here because this is PSA's biggest hub.

MIA - Nothing will change here at all

JFK/LGA - AA is giving up a few slots in LGA, and I suspect the cut routes will be some PHL frequency where so many slots are squatted on. This will give AA a chance to maintain some O and D to key places from LGA, and also allow them to sustain their O and D international traffic at JFK. They won't be the biggest player in NYC, but they will still compete, because there is too much market share and NYC does have a FF base, and they need to win contracts too. As for JFK, you may see a small presence to some markets to feed a bit of traffic at JFK, but I suspect aside from hub flying and beyond perimeter, most of the other flying will focus at LGA. I suspect Air Wisconsin will end up with more LGA flying as a result since they already have a domicile there. This is a place where Eagle flying can be cut without harming the overall network.

PHX - This is another mainline dominant station. While current service will be maintained, I do believe you are going to see E Jets start creeping into T4 in the future. I don't believe PHX will be dehubbed, but there will be a bit of capacity reduction.

Quoting Markam (Reply 43): You see the glass half-full for Boeing, and there is nothing wrong with that, but you do realize that it is also very easy to see it half-empy, right? After all AA, an airline which a few years ago was all-B will now be 50/50 A/B (on a frame count basis, once you take into account the ∼100 Boeing frames that are scheduled to be retired at both AA & US) and will be in the hands of a management team which in the past has showed a marked pro-Airbus preference when ordering aircraft. I am not so sure the guys in Seattle (Chicago?) are popping champagne bottles!

The glass is always either half full or empty. Personally, I'd like another round on the house!

Boeing lost its grip on AA. Airbus got a chip in the AA game. Airbus had USA in lock step as in no chance for Boeing. That's a winning scenario for Airbus. With the merger, a lock in step carrier has now bitten the dust and Airbus's "foot in the door" has been changed to a very different fleet scenario. The new AA may even reduce the number of aircraft inbound as they deal with the gate/slot changes.

Overall, the new carrier will operate a narrowbody fleet that is 46% Boeing, while the widebody fleet will have 80% Boeing. That is a far cry from what Airbus was looking at only a few months ago. The new carrier looks to have a fleet represented by Airbus at 47% and Boeing at 53%.

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 1): The new AA will simply be too large and demand too many aircrafts to be reliant on one manufacturer. For the next 10-15 years the new AA fleet is really already set. MAX/NEO/350/787 plus their existing fleet. I don't really see the new AA ordering the 779 but definitely could eventually see some A35J in the fleet.

I think that the new AA could do without the A350- I just don't see the need. The A330 fleet will stay, and may even grow, the 787 fleet will be massive and i expect more 77Ws.

I could see A20/737 for narrowbodies with the NEO and MAX replacing.
No real replacement for the 757 yet- I'm not sure A or B will ever have a true replacement.
767s will be replaced by 788s.
A330s will remain for a while.
77Es can be replaced by a combination of 789s and 77Ws and perhaps more A330s.
77Ws will eventually be replaced by the Boeing 778X or -9X.

That's my take on the new carrier's fleet.

AA1818

So once AA and US finally merge, will the airline rationalize cabin interiors among the fleet? AA's seats are different than those of US, especially the premium seats. I hope the new AA doesn't redo just the premium cabins and leave the Y class looking like the baggage hold.

Quoting apodino (Reply 44): PHL - There is a ton of money being spent at the moment on F concourse upgrades, which means that express will be an important factor here going forward. This is ZW's biggest hub, but if AA wants to shift JFK traffic to PHL for international purposes, they could need bigger planes to do so. The other question here is the Dash-8s and their future? There are markets that won't work without them. CLT - What happens with the PSA fleet will determine what happens here because this is PSA's biggest hub.

The future of the Dash 8 fleet is a really interesting question for US/AA.