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Okie
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:27 am

Quoting cornutt (Reply 44):
I assume the NTSB will be invited to participate representing the country of manufacture, and so indirectly Boeing would be involved.

Boeing will be to protect themselves. The manufacture of the CVR and FDR most likely be asked to assist.
NTSB not unless they are invited and not being IATA compliant I doubt they will be there either. Pretty much will have to rely on Russian authorities.

Okie
 
tu204
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:33 am

Quoting okie (Reply 50):

MAK has more than enough capability to decode the flight recorders.
They have invited the NTSB as per ICAO agreements to assist in the investigation.
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na
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:02 pm

There is a video on yt that shows the crash. The plane crashed vertically into the ground. Not a landing attempt, it looks like a stone falling, nose down (landing light facing almost 90 degrees downwards). What happened?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koUV3xRIraU

[Edited 2013-11-18 04:05:36]
 
MIAspotter
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:11 pm

Quoting na (Reply 52):

HOLY S**T!!!          watching that send a massive shiver down my spine, no wonder there are no survivors   very sad!

Tha plane just fell straight down... stall? engine flameout?

MIAspotter.
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JimJupiter
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:21 pm

Quoting na (Reply 52):
There is a video on yt that shows the crash.

Urgh.   
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fn1001
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 1:48 pm

I guess our respected member Pilotaydin, who also works as investigator, is on the way to Kasan and will soon find some moments to separate the truth from the rumours.

My condolences to the victims and their families!
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 2:06 pm

Quoting na (Reply 52):

Wow, the plane came down vertically. Quite shocking to see how the 737 disintegrated in less than a second.
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tu204
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 2:12 pm

I am able to say that that the video is not correct, from what I am told. It is of another accident aircraft.
We should wait for some official news, many news channels are coming up with some contradicting information. Not saying this is one, but I am saying that we should be cautious in what we interpret.

[Edited 2013-11-18 06:17:07]
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YQBexYHZBGM
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 2:13 pm

I just watched the video, and wish I hadn't.  
Seeing this video brought back horrendous memories of US 427, which spiraled from FL10 due to a jammed rudder and crashed nose down on approach to PIT in 1994.

May the families of those lost find comfort in the wake of this tragedy.

Al
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Okie
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:05 pm

Quoting YQBexYHZBGM (Reply 58):
Seeing this video brought back horrendous memories of US 427, which spiraled from FL10 due to a jammed rudder and crashed nose down on approach to PIT in 1994

The rudder issue has been taken care of.

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 37):
Interesting comment on avherald, even if impossible to verify at this stage:

Quote:Just called to Kazan tower controller: said that aicraft has diviation 4 KM left of track on STAR. Radar called pilots about that twice. Then tower observe and called to pilots same diviation on final. Pilots said that would like to continue approach. Last their repor: "Unstabilized. Going Around."


Pushing to TOGA and having a nose up component from an under slung engines that was incorrectly dealt with by the pilot would not be the first time an aircraft has climbed to stall and flown nose first into the ground at full thrust.
Plausible, FDR will indicate that, we will have to wait for MAK.

Okie

[Edited 2013-11-18 08:07:13]

Edited to add: It still looks like a flight control issue to me. Damaged flap or something along those lines.


[Edited 2013-11-18 08:10:22]
 
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:17 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 57):
I am able to say that that the video is not correct, from what I am told. It is of another accident aircraft.

I have just watched the video and have problems reconciling the nose-first crash, with the still photo (posted yesterday), which shows what looks to be the fuselage upside down, but much more intact than would be expected from a dive. Nonetheless, some are quoted as saying that all that is left are small fragments and foam, and that it will take a long time to identify the remains. So what is the truth here?
 
tu204
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:23 pm

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 60):

I don't have much to add. There is a lot of raw information coming in in a short period of time. Lots of opinions and not enough specialists to verify/discredit it. Besides that is not the MAK's main concern right now, so we have "aviation specialists" feeding information to the media without any verification and making conclusions.
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Okie
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 60):
I have just watched the video and have problems reconciling the nose-first crash, with the still photo (posted yesterday), which shows what looks to be the fuselage upside down, but much more intact than would be expected from a dive. Nonetheless, some are quoted as saying that all that is left are small fragments and foam, and that it will take a long time to identify the remains. So what is the truth here?

If you are referring to post 9 then I am thinking that has to be an archive shot from some other accident.
The pictures I am seeing from other sources indicate that there were no parts of the aircraft left that were that large.

I have to agree about the remains, the best I can tell there may be an translation issue here in that they released the passenger list as identifying as to who was on the flight, not actually identifying the bodies per se.

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mcogator
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:01 pm

I read that the son of the president of Tatarstan was on the flight. Is there any chance this was terrorism?
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Western727
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:16 pm

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 60):
Nonetheless, some are quoted as saying that all that is left are small fragments and foam, and that it will take a long time to identify the remains. So what is the truth here?

It now appears from the security video showing the nose dive and videos of the smoldering wreckage claimed to be "fresh" videos...that it indeed, sadly, crashed nose-first a la Valujet 592 and is therefore in many small fragments.
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YYZYYT
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:49 pm

When I first saw the news I had the usual response  

Then I began thinking about the last crash of a passenger jet with fatalities.... and I couldn't think of a recent one! I checked aviation-safety.net, and it appears that this is only the third fatal crash of a passenger jet this year. The only others are a Challenger in Kazakhstan in January, and the Asiana 777 at SFO (and even then, most aboard survived).

The general trend is that safety is improving, and the number of accidents - and fatalities - on an annual basis is generally declining. I find comfort in that, and look forward to a day when such tragic events are truly an exceptional and rare occurance.
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:57 pm

In the video posted, what are the two flashes on the tarmac/ground prior to the impact? Camera flashes? Hardly strobe lights at such a distance.

If they are camera flashes, why was someone standing outside with a camera watching? Perhaps a pre-reported problem as was stated above with the supposed ATC info?
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Acheron
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:08 pm

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 66):
Camera flashes? Hardly strobe lights at such a distance.

Strobe light reflections on a wet tarmac, probably.
 
mandala499
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:37 pm

Quoting na (Reply 52):
What happened?

I wouldn't dismiss a botched go around if that video is what I think it is... we had spatial disorientation on take off a few times on the 737 in the past (but it's not the plane at fault), so a similar thing happening in a go-around isn't impossible... depends on the weather and lighting conditions and crew state of mind...

RIP to all onboard...  
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:54 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 68):
I wouldn't dismiss a botched go around if that video is what I think it is... we had spatial disorientation on take off a few times on the 737 in the past (but it's not the plane at fault), so a similar thing happening in a go-around isn't impossible... depends on the weather and lighting conditions and crew state of mind...

I agree with you here. Remember Flash Airlines flight 604 out of Sharm El Sheikh. I also think it is loss of control because of loss of situational awareness. In that case they flew this Tatarstan 737-500 right into the ground after some kind of go around procedure. Could be lack of instrument monitoring...

I feel for the families of the victims.
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Okie
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:20 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 68):
I wouldn't dismiss a botched go around if that video is what I think it is... we had spatial disorientation on take off a few times on the 737 in the past (but it's not the plane at fault), so a similar thing happening in a go-around isn't impossible... depends on the weather and lighting conditions and crew state of mind...

The issue I have at this point if time line is correct.
If it is as ATC indicated 700ft agl at 4km out add 2 more to get to the center of the field for the camera (just a guess) when aircraft informed of a go around. I really have issues with getting a plane into that configuration to be near nose down from 700ft in 5-6km from spatial disorientation near a lighted airfield. I would think either the angle of impact would have been less of an angle or farther down track but that is just a guess I could be wrong.

Unless there is something blatantly obvious on the recorders then it will be a while before anything is released.

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readytotaxi
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:29 pm

Not happy with the crash footage being shown, just me.  
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migair54
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:47 pm

Quoting mcogator (Reply 63):
I read that the son of the president of Tatarstan was on the flight. Is there any chance this was terrorism?

I don´t think so, it was the second approach, but we have to wait for a final report and more info will be available when the days are passing...

The video is terrible.
 
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cjg225
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:18 pm

That's the second time this year we've had a video of a crash with all aboard perishing... Not sure which is more heart-rending, the NA 747F crash or this...
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trigged
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:03 pm

Quoting na (Reply 52):
There is a video on yt that shows the crash. The plane crashed vertically into the ground. Not a landing attempt, it looks like a stone falling, nose down (landing light facing almost 90 degrees downwards). What happened?

Ugh.... I can't imagine what the thoughts were of the flight crew and passengers right before impact. Any chance this was a stall, the pilots were pushing it nose down to get some airspeed, and ended up losing orientation with respect to how close to the ground they were? I have a feeling it will take longer to read the FDR / CVR on this one as opposed to the NA 744. This one did a pretty high speed lawn dart right in to the tarmac with very little video to go on.

Thoughts are with the families, I can't imagine what it will be like for them to eventually see this video as it will be virtually impossible to avoid.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:05 pm

Okie: The rudder issue was "taken care of" in the Classics in part by increasing the minimum approach speed and such; it's as much a procedural fix as a mechanical one. Who knows how these guys were flying the thing.

That said, from that video it's looking more like a spatial-disorientation, loss-of-situational-awareness, Ethopian 409-type of thing. They didn't report the go around as being to fix a mechanical, so unless one cropped up on the second approach, it's more likely something else.

But we'll see. And anything is possible. What is usually true is that the cause is something other than many people initially perceive it to be.
 
timpdx
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:48 am

There seems to be a flash on the aircraft before it hits the ground.

Screen captures:
frame 1 is descending plane, frame 2 is the flash, frame 3 as it continues towards impact in frame 4

compressor stall? hitting a power line?

http://i40.tinypic.com/2lwxdgm.jpg
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AR385
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:40 am

On the video I´m pretty sure you can see towards the end the vertical stabilizer and that shows the plane was falling perpendicular to the ground. Has anyone else noticed this?
 
timpdx
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:11 am

There is clearer video (slightly so) available

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europ...h-a-sign-of-a-failing-system-video

I would now guess the flash before impact is power lines. It went in 80 degrees or so right into the ground.
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captainmeeerkat
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:21 am

If it finished up between a taxiway and a runway, what powerlines would there be?
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timpdx
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:24 am

captainmeeerkat: I never heard where it landed exactly. Wonder what would flash then a second before impact nose down like that. I don't know if that angle would cause a compressor stall in the engines? Some sort of structural failure at the last second?

[Edited 2013-11-18 19:25:15]
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AR385
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:25 am

Quoting timpdx (Reply 78):
I would now guess the flash before impact is power lines.

It´s the beacon.

Given where it hit, I would suscribe to the hypothesis this is a botched go-around.
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:07 am

It is strange. Perhaps the strobe lights on a wet runway like someone above suggested regarding my question about the two flashes at the beginning of the video.
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LTC8K6
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:59 am

Quoting timpdx (Reply 80):
captainmeeerkat: I never heard where it landed exactly. Wonder what would flash then a second before impact nose down like that. I don't know if that angle would cause a compressor stall in the engines? Some sort of structural failure at the last second?

It's pretty obviously a strobe light on the plane firing as normal, imo. You can see it's reflection on the wet runway as well.
 
mandala499
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:45 am

Quoting okie (Reply 70):
The issue I have at this point if time line is correct.
If it is as ATC indicated 700ft agl at 4km out add 2 more to get to the center of the field for the camera (just a guess) when aircraft informed of a go around. I really have issues with getting a plane into that configuration to be near nose down from 700ft in 5-6km from spatial disorientation near a lighted airfield. I would think either the angle of impact would have been less of an angle or farther down track but that is just a guess I could be wrong.

You're not the only one baffled... I am too.
If the 735 was on default lighting then the speed of the video shouldn't be too far from realtime speed, if not slowed down slightly. But no timestamp.  
Based on the light configuration, the airplane does look like it's nose down instead of heavily banked etc, and does not appear to be pulling a large AoA...
700' AGL at 4km out, means at just over 2NM, and end up approx 2.5nm later... at a 60deg (looks like over 45 anyway) or down trajectory is difficult to imagine. But, in 2NM airplanes can go up pretty high, and from a go-around, one can easily gain 1000ft in 2.5NM if not more, on a 735.
I would throw out the assumption of a lighted airfield... the cloud base is 700-800ft AGL at the time.

Add all that with the missed approach procedure (assuming ILS 29), "at 1070, then left turn 112, climb 2060 according to chart"...

The thing is, we don't know from what altitude did the go-around start, but I assume that they climbed into the overcast and was commencing the turn when something happened. If the aircraft had shot 2 previous approaches and this mishap occured on the 3rd abort... I wouldn't be surprised if they fell victim to spatial disorientation extremely quickly.

Even in good visual conditions at night, spatial disorientation is a risk. Do they have spatial disorientation training at Tatarstan?

Questions questions questions... let's hope answers come through in the end.
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:59 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 84):
700' AGL at 4km out, means at just over 2NM, and end up approx 2.5nm later... at a 60deg (looks like over 45 anyway) or down trajectory is difficult to imagine.

Difficult, unless they pulled the nose up a lot, lost all speed and then fell nose down. Also very unlikely, I know...
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captainmeeerkat
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:36 pm

News here is reporting that the CVR casing was opened but the recorder itself was missing.  
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KarelXWB
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:53 pm

A few updates:

> Tatarstan 737 impacted at over 240kt as pilots countered pitch-up and airspeed loss during go-around by pushing jet into 75deg dive.
> Preliminary findings from crashed Tatarstan 737 flight recorder finds aircraft did not exceed angle-of-attack limits.

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flyingturtle
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 87):
by pushing jet into 75deg dive.

...err...  Wow!


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richierich
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:32 pm

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 86):
News here is reporting that the CVR casing was opened but the recorder itself was missing.

As in tampered with? Or damaged by the impact?
What an awful crash - must have been an especially terrifying last few seconds.
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:38 pm

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 85):
unless they pulled the nose up a lot, lost all speed and then fell nose down
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 87):
Tatarstan 737 impacted at over 240kt as pilots countered pitch-up and airspeed loss during go-around by pushing jet into 75deg dive

Apparently confirmed:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25005211
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captainmeeerkat
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:59 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 89):

Apparently missing or not there in the first place. I can't find the news article myself but my wife states she also saw the same. I can't confirm that though. Can anyone else?
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zrb2
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 4:13 pm

That's one of the craziest things I've heard of in commercial aviation. First off letting the airspeed get that low...secondly putting the plane into that severe of a nose dive for a minute. Wow. it's almost like suicide.
 
RubberJungle
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:56 pm

Given the sudden acceleration from the go-around, in the darkness, there's a possibility that disorientation through somatogravic illusion played a part in the accident:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...into-dive-during-go-around-393302/
 
cornutt
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:28 am

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 93):
there's a possibility that disorientation through somatogravic illusion played a part in the accident:

Sort of like what might have happened in Birmingham a couple of months ago... Av Herald is reporting that they went into a stall after retracting the flaps. I wonder if that led them to think they were at a higher AoA than they were, and then the ground illusion and maybe an indistinct horizon led them to push the nose down farther than they realized in attempting to fly out of the stall. Probably, by the time they punched through the cloud layer and realized what orientation they were at, it was too late to do much about it.
 
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cjg225
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 1:57 am

Quoting cornutt (Reply 94):
Av Herald is reporting that they went into a stall after retracting the flaps. I wonder if that led them to think they were at a higher AoA than they were, and then the ground illusion and maybe an indistinct horizon led them to push the nose down farther than they realized in attempting to fly out of the stall. Probably, by the time they punched through the cloud layer and realized what orientation they were at, it was too late to do much about it

That sounds quite plausible. Moreso than a deliberate action.
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flyingturtle
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 1:43 pm

Quoting cornutt (Reply 94):
Quoting cjg225 (Reply 95):

Without trying to lay blame - is it so easy to overlook the artificial horizon in a stress situation?


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bond007
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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 1:46 pm

Quoting zrb2 (Reply 92):
That's one of the craziest things I've heard of in commercial aviation. First off letting the airspeed get that low...secondly putting the plane into that severe of a nose dive for a minute. Wow. it's almost like suicide.

Not sure if that was a tongue in cheek comment, but you could say the same thing about numerous crashes that were due to pilot error. AF447 is one example where an apparently very competent crew, do things many find hard to imagine.
Humans can do the strangest things when confronted with non-standard scenarios.

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RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 1:51 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 96):
is it so easy to overlook the artificial horizon in a stress situation?

While I would say no - there are literally hundreds of accident reports where pilots have ignored perfectly good / functioning instruments such as the artificial horizon in spatial disorientation crashes.

It happens, much too often.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
bueb0g
Posts: 656
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2010 5:57 pm

RE: Tatarstan Airlines Boeing 737 Crash In Kazan, Russia

Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:00 pm

Quoting cornutt (Reply 94):
Av Herald is reporting that they went into a stall after retracting the flaps.

No, it doesn't report that at all. MAK has specifically said that there was no stall; the crew were reacting to an impending stall and in doing so pushed the a/c into a dive which they evidently did not recover from.
Roger roger, what's our vector, victor?

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