would WN start service to SYR, they already serve ALB, ROC and BUF.

It might have made sense atleast with BWI service. However, WN's short haul fares from BWI have gone up considerably over the last 1-2 years. $102 for BWI-ROC for example and that is considered lowest fare in the low fare calendar. At those fares and about a 5.5 hour drive, it can be preferred to just drive if visiting for leisure. However, it might be able to pull in O&D business traffic and connection traffic to make 3 daily departures into BWI worthwhile.

The problem is BWI might take a backseat to the DAL, HOU, LGA, DCA and maybe ATL and PHX (if AA dehubs) growth.

[Edited 2013-11-27 11:50:58]

yeah that makes sense and they woud have to compete with US and UA out of IAD and DCA.

Isn't Syracuse a bit more depressed economically than even the rest of the upstate cities?

-Rampart

Quoting rampart (Reply 3): Isn't Syracuse a bit more depressed economically than even the rest of the upstate cities?

yes it is

Quoting jetblue01 (Reply 4): Quoting rampart (Reply 3): Isn't Syracuse a bit more depressed economically than even the rest of the upstate cities? yes it is

The metro area population of Syracuse is considerably smaller than Albany, Rochester or Buffalo as well. Even if you start generously including other areas like Utica/Rome, Ithaca, Binghamton, Watertown, etc..... still smaller -- and still economically depressed.



Syracuse is still one of those cities that isn't either big enough or economically strong enough to justify a new station. Even if Southwest is willing to open smaller stations. SYR would likely be a successful small station, but they still have limited resources to expand and more lucrative markets to expand to.

Didn't FL serve SYR and then WN decided to drop it post-merger?

If so, there was probably a reason why WN did that.

SYR isn't more economically depressed than BUF, ALB, and ROC. I'm sure BUF's traffic would be smaller if it wasn't for canada and the ridiculous airfares out of YYZ and other canadian cities. Also ALB has state government traffic. BTW Airtran served SYR with flights to MCO and pulled out after the Valuejet merger

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 6): Didn't FL serve SYR and then WN decided to drop it post-merger? If so, there was probably a reason why WN did that.

The original AirTran served SYR, but it was dropped in 1998 after the ValuJet/AirTran merger.

Quoting desertjets (Reply 5): The metro area population of Syracuse is considerably smaller than Albany, Rochester or Buffalo as well. Even if you start generously including other areas like Utica/Rome, Ithaca, Binghamton, Watertown, etc..... still smaller -- and still economically depressed.

While still technically true, Syracuse is the easiest city upstate to get to from more than 1/3 of the state. Also, speaking as an upstate NYer, we are used to driving up to 3 hours to get a cheap flight. I have flown out of BUF, ROC even NYC to save over SYR, which is expensive because it doesn't have the LCC's that the other cities do. If prices could come down, people like me would come back to SYR, and maybe even a few from other areas of the state would come. WN couldn't support a new DEN operation, but they could to 10-20 flights if they would offer service someplace new.

I propose 2x MDW and 4x BWI for connections, 1x MCO, 1x TPA for the winter retreaters, and 1x DEN/1x DAL or HOU for some new markets or future International connections. I have seen a city like DEN abandon F9 (the darling hometown airline) for the charms of WN first hand. WN could win over SYR, a city with no hometown airline, no loyalty and smaller wallets.

I would have thought that Florida service from Syracuse would have made sense. But I am not an airline revenue analyst, nor do I play one on TV.

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 11): I would have thought that Florida service from Syracuse would have made sense. But I am not an airline revenue analyst, nor do I play one on TV.

Sometimes, as in the case of DCA, more airlines flying the same routes is not necessarily good or profitable. In this case, in upstate NY, you will fill a plane to Florida. Keep your costs down, and you will make a profit. Allegiant is certainly going to make spring break cheaper for SYR (which is nice, since they have 2 spring breaks in NY). For me, what SYR is flights to new cities, west and southwest.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 10): a city with no hometown airline, no loyalty and smaller wallets.

I thought B6 was considered the airline of SYR?

Quoting cosyr (Reply 10): I propose 2x MDW and 4x BWI for connections, 1x MCO, 1x TPA for the winter retreaters, and 1x DEN/1x DAL or HOU for some new markets or future International connections.

4 to BWI? Sounds like a non-rev's dream. I would like it would be more like 2x BWI and 1x MCO and that would probably be it...maybe 1x MDW.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 14): 4 to BWI? Sounds like a non-rev's dream. I would like it would be more like 2x BWI and 1x MCO and that would probably be it...maybe 1x MDW.

B6 flies 4x to JFK + Florida, I think WN could manage more than 3 daily flights to hubs, and a more P2P vacation destinations.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 13): I thought B6 was considered the airline of SYR?

They were when they came. People thought it would be some real LCC competition to lower prices, but their tickets are rarely the cheapest when I'm looking. They are still liked in SYR as a service alternative, but the best thing they do is promote mainline jets. If it weren't for them, I think US would have switched to all commuter long ago.

More and more the LCC's of the US frustrate me, as none seem to offer real connections for non beach goers. A lot of people fly from NY to FL, but it's not the only place SYR needs service (or BUF, ROC or ALB) Jetblue offers some transcons, and Southwest has a large route map, but NK and Allegiant fly to Beaches, and F9 isn't really helpful if you don't live in DEN. Airtran was my best hope for a legacy airline network with an LCC style of business, but no more.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 15): I think WN could manage more than 3 daily flights to hubs,

From SYR, that would not be WN's style.

Here is my five cents on aviation in Upstate NY…

After being born in ALB, and living there for 15 years, I can tell you that Upstate New York is a very complex place that isn’t really easy to understand unless you have lived there. I classify Upstate New York into two areas: ALB/Adirondack Mountains, and SYR/ROC/BUF/Everywhere else.

To me the area that includes ALB/Adirondack Mountains is very New England in character and lifestyle, due to ALB’s close proximity to Vermont and Massachusetts. ALB has this weird Dutch influence everywhere you go, from place names to architecture, due to the city’s founding by the Dutch. To me, being in the Adirondacks reminds me of being in Germany or Switzerland, due to the similar mountains, weather, and architecture as well. You see a little Quebec influence as well.

BUF/ROC/SYR are the other three big Upstate cities, and to me, they are very Midwestern in culture and values, and seem to be a world apart from ALB. My friends from Buffalo have an accent very similar to the accent found in Minnesota.

I’d say BUF and ALB are the most powerful cities in Upstate. BUF because it is the largest Upstate and ALB because it is the NYS capital. I’d say ALB has a fairly large amount of wealthy people, from people in government to those having homes in resort areas like Saratoga Springs and the Adirondack Mountains (think Lake Placid Great Camps). Tons of wealthy Floridians have summer houses in the Adirondacks. The Adirondacks and Saratoga Springs bring tourism as well. ALB has a large capture area that includes a good chunk of Vermont and Massachusetts, not including Upstate New York
.
The Capital District (ALB) is the most affluent metro area outside NYC in NYS.

BUF also has tourism from the Niagara Falls as well, and its capture area includes Ontario.

The population of metro areas in Upstate NY are:
1. Buffalo/Niagara: 1.25 MILLION
2. Capital District(ALB) : about 1.1 million
3. ROC metro area: 1 million
4. SYR metro area: 660K

It is for these reasons that WN has long served BUF and ALB. I doubt WN will come to SYR in the future. SYR is relatively close to ROC. IIRC its less than 1.5 hours away.

The problem with aviation in Upstate NY is the only significant service that has been added in the last 10 years is to Florida. While flights to Florida are great, Florida isn't the only place people want to go. There should be flights from Upstate NY to DEN and DFW.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 17): The population of metro areas in Upstate NY are: 1. Buffalo/Niagara: 1.25 MILLION 2. Capital District(ALB) : about 1.1 million 3. ROC metro area: 1 million 4. SYR metro area: 660K

I don't know how those metro areas are divided, but they are more political boundaries than true catchment areas for each metro.
1. BUF gets its metro area, western NY, and some of Canada.
2. ALB pulls in some of western MA and southern VT, some permanent Catskills residents, the rest go south to NYC.
3. ROC, probably the hardest to separate from the rest. Gets some of the BUF and SYR market, and the rest of Western NY.
4. SYR includes Utica/Rome, Ithaca, Binghamton, Watertown, and some of the finger lakes.

It is difficult to see the true potential of any population area, because people in NY are so used to driving to other airports. If tickets were equally priced and flights were identically timed, I think ALB and SYR would be similar in service. BUF and ROC would be a little busier.

ALB may have WN, but they couldn't keep AA, so who's to say what SYR's potential appeal is?

Quoting cosyr (Reply 19):

If you read my whole post above, you would see how I divided the catchment areas.

The busiest airports in Upstate are, in order: BUF, ALB, ROC, SYR.

The reason AA left ALB was due to pressure on the CHI route from WN. ALB still has UA and WN on the route. UA is also much stronger at ALB than at SYR. ALB still has mainline service, usually once or twice daily depending on the season. SYR doesn't have any.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 20): If you read my whole post above, you would see how I divided the catchment areas.

Your list is from the Wikipedia population metro areas list, which I don't dispute their numbers, but I think that SYR captures more than the Syracuse Metro area (as do other upstate NY airports). Being in the center of the state on the crossroads of 90 and 81, and with some other cities like Utica not on the list at all, I know that Syracuse could serve more people than they are now, if they could just get fares down.

I was surprised to see that ALB was slightly higher than ROC for enplanements:
http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning...2CommercialServiceEnplanements.pdf
But with ALB ranked at 81, ROC at 83 and SYR at 87, one new airline in one of those markets, or one leaving the market, could flip those cities around entirely.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 15): B6 flies 4x to JFK + Florida, I think WN could manage more than 3 daily flights to hubs, and a more P2P vacation destinations.

Good for B6...how much of the SYR-JFK is O&D? WN wants O&D before connecting traffic. This is why you saw CAK-MDW killed off relatively quickly. FNT-BWI is also pretty poor right now. It would be logical BWI would be a destination out of SYR, but I think your frequencies are just too high.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 22): how much of the SYR-JFK is O&D? WN wants O&D before connecting traffic.

At least the same % as in ROC or ALB, and WN can pretend all they want, but with MDW, BWI, DEN, PHX, etc. they have hubs, and can't hate connections forever. If they want to continue to grow (and their order book with Boeing says that they do) they need to look at new markets, and not all of them are going to be O&D routes exclusively. While I think they will focus on growing internationally in the next 5 years, connections are going to be key for that. Also, if they can open up some new routes like DEN, DAL or HOU, maybe even STL, WN might open up some O&D traffic that legacies have kept as connecting traffic. I admit that it might make more sense to explore that strategy from BUF first though.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 23): At least the same % as in ROC or ALB, and WN can pretend all they want, but with MDW, BWI, DEN, PHX, etc. they have hubs, and can't hate connections forever. If they want to continue to grow (and their order book with Boeing says that they do) they need to look at new markets, and not all of them are going to be O&D routes exclusively.

How did that work out for MDW-CAK?  

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 24): How did that work out for MDW-CAK?

First off, that was an AirTran route, and I don't think that WN fought to keep AirTran routes. WN already had CLE, and they like to have a certain # of flights from any city to justify service. That is obviously a concern with SYR too, but CAK and SYR are not the same markets. CAK is a suburn to a larger city with a larger (not expensive) airport.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 25): First off, that was an AirTran route, and I don't think that WN fought to keep AirTran routes. WN already had CLE, and they like to have a certain # of flights from any city to justify service.

CAK-MDW was at one point a a WN route that was added with CAK-DEN. Because of low yields, WN decided to cancel CAK-MDW. I don't think it's directly analogous to SYR though, since as you pointed CAK somewhat complements or competes with CLE at 54 highway miles, and SYR is it's own airport for it's region independent over 90 miles of ROC.

CAK-MDW was likely diluting CLE-MDW. It's also just about a 5-6 hour drive so families doing the weekend in Chicago can just drive and no 3 week advance booking for a low fare really needed with a car trip, esp. with weather being so erratic in Chicago. The only thing with SYR is it's about a 5.5 hour drive to DC for the DC long weekend trip as well, so O&D around the weekend via BWI will be more connections likely.

[Edited 2013-12-01 16:31:19]

Quoting cosyr (Reply 23): At least the same % as in ROC or ALB,

absolutely not. There is practically no O/D traffic from NYC to ALB. The vast majority of people who need to get to ALB from NYC and vice-versa take Amtrak.

Quoting cosyr (Reply 21): But with ALB ranked at 81, ROC at 83 and SYR at 87,

Things certainly have changed for SYR in 30 years. When I lived up there in the mid 80s, SYR was ranked in the low 60s market-wise. I think the closing of all those industrial plants in Solvay drove out a lot of jobs from the area.

One good thing about the closing of the allied chemical plant was the ending of the company's polluting of onondaga lake,. The clean up of that is being undertaken by Allied's successor Honeywell and interestingly enough the soil is being dumped at a waste bed that was once Syracuse's main airport. BTW the airport's ownership structure is undergoing changes with the Syracuse airport authority taking over gradually from the city which should lower costs.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 27): There is practically no O/D traffic from NYC to ALB. The vast majority of people who need to get to ALB from NYC and vice-versa take Amtrak.

I wasn't talking about the O&D market specifically for NYC, but for any route that WN might try.

Quoting N62NA (Reply 28): Things certainly have changed for SYR in 30 years. When I lived up there in the mid 80s, SYR was ranked in the low 60s market-wise. I think the closing of all those industrial plants in Solvay drove out a lot of jobs from the area.

I think that is also partially driven by growth at a number of western US airports since the 80's. A lot of cities west of the Mississippi have seen growth, particularly as Americans have more disposable income, flying increased and western cities tend to be farther apart necessitating flying over driving more than the East coast.