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kanban
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:53 pm

Simply, probably never a "true" replacement.. not enough market for the investment.. so just be happy with the role being filled by other less sexy aircraft.
(OK, I'm biased.. worked on the program from day one .. flew on them when I could, enjoyed every minute ... well almost)
 
PGNCS
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:57 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Thread starter):
With Boeing working on the the 739ERMAX and Airbus starting the 321NEO which IMHO are just wannabe 757 replacements. Who will build a true 757 replacement frame or is one even needed at this point if ever?

Nobody will build one until there is a sufficient market for it. There isn't now or in the foreseeable future. The 757 is yesterday's plane.
 
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tjcab
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:25 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 29):
I really don't get this obsession with the need to replace the 757 with an exact (all be it, updated) clone to do those few missions the A321 (and to a lesser extent the 739) can't do. Airlines stopped buying 757s a long time ago.

Correct. If there was such a need, the line would still be open today. Why make an exact copy when you can just build the same thing. While it was good then, IMO, it's an aircraft just not needed today with the new products available.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:56 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 29):
I really don't get this obsession with the need to replace the 757 with an exact (all be it, updated) clone to do those few missions the A321 (and to a lesser extent the 739) can't do.

Folks don't understand airline fleet planning and assume you have to replace direct-with-direct. Hence the constant calls for a new 757 and new A300.

Now that the A340 is out of production, within a few years we'll see calls for a new A340 to handle Antarctic crossings.  
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:33 am

Quoting incitatus (Reply 20):
You are entirely right. But the fact that remains is that there is a sub-set of routes flown by 757 presently for which there is no alternative

And for those routes (how many in the world...20 maybe?) there will be no aircraft once the 757 is gone. Airlines will survive.
 
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kanban
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 4:26 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 54):
And for those routes (how many in the world...20 maybe?) there will be no aircraft once the 757 is gone. Airlines will survive.

look at how the demise of the 317 clipper doomed Pan American...   
 
KD5MDK
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:03 am

Bombardier CS900 (190 seat version)  
 
sweair
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:52 am

It will not be a 100 % replacement but something new. A large NB will beat any WB on routes up to say 4500nm, optimize it for this role instead of growing it from start. There must be tons of routes that fit that range and 240-260 seats. If one can do a route and still save 20t-40t of structure I dont get why so many here get upset. It is really about flying the most number of seats at the least cost of structural weight. If a 58t frame can do what a 110t frame can why pay the extra fuel for the not needed structure? Because large people need a WB?! I just see a waste of energy here..
 
onebadlt123
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:06 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 34):
Slash frequencies and use bigger Aircraft on those routes the A321neo/737-9 can´t do.

Most of our TATL routes on the 757 do not have the capacity and would be unprofitable on anything larger. Just because a replacement aircraft isn't made doesn't mean we should give up our international backbone or sacrifice proper fleet optimization for it. We will fly our ETOPS 757's until we simply cant.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:32 am

But for that routes even the capital costs of a new aircraft might be enough to reduce the profit.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:35 am

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 56):
Because large people need a WB?! I

Because Airlines like their cargo revenue and there is not much of that to be had on a narrow body.

Quoting sweair (Reply 57):
If a 58t frame can do what a 110t frame can why pay the extra fuel for the not needed structure?

As per empty weight per Passenger the 757 is not that much in advantage. 58 Tonnes/239 Pax = 243Kg/Pax, a A330-200 comes in at 297kg/pax, a A330-300 at 270kg and a 767-300 actually at 250kg/pax.
A A321 at 220kg Pax or A B739ER at 208Kg/Pax. There is a very, very small niche for an B757 Type Aircraft these days.

I´d kind of expect the "true 757 successor" to be 2 Aisle (quick turnaround, the 753 was a bitch to board) & somewhat more passenger capacity. So more a A310 than a 757. Asia will have lots of thin medium distance routes.

best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:46 am

Quoting Reply 58):
Most of our TATL routes on the 757 do not have the capacity and would be unprofitable on anything larger Just because a replacement aircraft isn't made doesn't mean we should give up our international backbone or sacrifice proper fleet optimization for it. We will fly our ETOPS 757's until we simply cant.

A routing that in 5+ plus years didn´t mature from a 757 into a bigger Aircraft can hardly be the backbone of anything. But yeah, Lufthansa did pretty much the same with its A300. Nothing wrong with that. Expensive D-Checks and fuel burn will still retire them before they "can´t" fly anymore.

best regards
Thomas
 
SASMD82
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:06 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 60):
So more a A310

This was a very nice plane. Not too big but large enough to get 230+ pax with a lot of freight in the belly.
What about an A310ENO   
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:32 am

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 62):
What about an A310ENO

I think the tooling is gone  

And i don´t see that before 2025-30 unless the MS-21 or the Comarc bird turn out exceptionally good.

best regards
Thomas
 
sweair
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:49 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 60):

58t/240 seats vs 100t 240 seats..we are comparing routes not max capacity of airframes. And here your lovely WB sucks.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:57 am

Quoting sweair (Reply 64):
100t 240 seats

and which WB has 100 Tonnes empty weight and 240 seats max capacity?

best regards
Thomas
 
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Stitch
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:44 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 65):
and which WB has 100 Tonnes empty weight and 240 seats max capacity?

The 767-2C should be about that in two classes and would have an (OEM) OEW around 85 tons.
 
flipdewaf
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:15 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Point is: there are no REPLACEMENTS. There are SUCCESSORS

Well put.

Quoting sweair (Reply 25):
shorter routes say up to 4000-5000nm.

as apposed to the medium haul Apollo routes?   

Fred
 
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garpd
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:29 am

Quoting 817Dreamliiner (Reply 3):
But, if its a transatlantic replacement you are looking for, then you need to remember that those TATL 757 are the last off the line ( only about 50 or so).

If you mean to say that only the last of the line can do it, then no.   

I flew on Monarch Airlines 757s in 1994 from GLA to MCO, both were build in 1983. So neither of these can be classed as "last of the line" or anywhere close. Both made regular Trans Atlantic trips.

757s have been used to fly over the pond from almost the get go.

[Edited 2013-12-06 03:41:58]
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:49 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 60):
Because Airlines like their cargo revenue and there is not much of that to be had on a narrow body.

Quoting sweair (Reply 57):
If a 58t frame can do what a 110t frame can why pay the extra fuel for the not needed structure?

As per empty weight per Passenger the 757 is not that much in advantage. 58 Tonnes/239 Pax = 243Kg/Pax, a A330-200 comes in at 297kg/pax, a A330-300 at 270kg and a 767-300 actually at 250kg/pax.
A A321 at 220kg Pax or A B739ER at 208Kg/Pax. There is a very, very small niche for an B757 Type Aircraft these days.

I´d kind of expect the "true 757 successor" to be 2 Aisle (quick turnaround, the 753 was a bitch to board) & somewhat more passenger capacity. So more a A310 than a 757. Asia will have lots of thin medium distance routes.

best regards
Thomas

Typical of somebody out of a big country and only thinking about traffic between big towns. There are medium long routes bearing up a B 757 but being to thin for a wide body.

Take a A321 and a B757-200 even if nominal you are able to squeeze the same number of pax into both, it is apple and oranges. The cabin length of a A321 is 34.44m and the cabin length of an 36.1m, so the same number of pax in the same class disribution will have more room on the the B 757-200.
If you then fly the same distance with the A 321 with the same pax number as the B 757-200 the B 757-200 will take about 5 t cargo when the A 321 is full with pax and baggage only.

I do not see a market for a B 757 today, of course not, but I see a market for a successor, a NB more capable than a A 321 or B 737-900. If there would come a NB flying 200+ pax in some comfort for around 4,500+ NM and being able to move some freight it would find a market. As the B 757-200 have been replaced in the domestic USA market, they have been used to open new routes not flown before.
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:22 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 69):

Typical of somebody out of a big country and only thinking about traffic between big towns. There are medium long routes bearing up a B 757 but being to thin for a wide body.

While that is true, any route that works on a B757should grow into the Widebody Segment in under 10 years, even at just about 3% growth, below industry average. The trend towards lots of space for premium passengers and Y+ Classis will increase m2 demand per Pax as well, also limiting the attractiveness of NB birds for long range travel. The tripcosts of a A332 will be what.... 30-35% higher than a 757? For 70% more capacity and hard to compare cargo capabilities. Thats a lot of extra Seats and cargo space to be sold at discount prices. A B788 would probably do even better.
I don´t see how a 757 routing can be a) self sustaining and b) not have much higher fares than competing hub connections. Those routings will benefit from the lower CASM of an efficient WB by simple drawing traffic backs from such hubs. And even a rather remote Airport as KEF has plenty of hubs in easy B737/A320 range. If such route has enough high yield traffic to sustain a 757 operation, it will probably work with a A319max or B737-7max, actually reducing the number of seats offered. And while i live in a large country, i still have to fly to a hub first before embarking on a long distance flight since my airport is HAJ.
But i am sure that Boeing and Airbus will address this with their next NB generation, maybe by having a slightly larger wing for the ER Versions.

best regards
Thomas
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:42 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Thread starter):
Note: There have been threads about this last one was 4 years ago...time to update.

This question is mentioned about once very two months, the simple answer is that in todays terms the 757 carried far too much structure weight for the uses that the vast majority of examples were/are used for. The one thing it could do that no other plane could was to operate across the Atlantic US East Coast to Western Europe on routes to/from secondary cities. The total number of planes ever needed to fulfil this role makes a replacement hopelessly uneconomic for the manufacturers.
 
incitatus
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:28 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 70):
While that is true, any route that works on a B757should grow into the Widebody Segment in under 10 years, even at just about 3% growth, below industry average.

If true, there should be routes - lots of them - that are not feasible for longer range narrow bodies today but will be in 10 years.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 61):
A routing that in 5+ plus years didn´t mature from a 757 into a bigger Aircraft can hardly be the backbone of anything.

Agreed but being long-term 757 is not by itself a bad thing. For example, UA might add a city in Europe with a 757 from EWR. As the market matures, it adds a 763 from ORD. The EWR stays 757 and caters mostly to local traffic.
 
ndhair37
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:38 pm

I've just commented on another post; but we can probably see a 757 replacement developed by Boeing relatively cheaply using Dreamliner technology. Raked wingtips or large winglets; perhaps additional fuel capacity offset against even more efficient, new engines; and the sort of cockpit and passenger environments that are proving very popular at present.

The 757MAX as you may call it could benefit from two types; almost a 752 and 753... 55m birds with an extensive range and fuel saving technology or 48m birds as a like for like replacement for the current 752. At present it seems the A321 is capturing a great deal of the US TransCon market; but surely a larger, more efficient 757 could start to hack back at the order book?

752 and 753 aircraft can pretty much do whatever you want: stuff them full of Economy, add Premium or Business (or both) or anything else. The 753 never really got to the ball - but with longer range and lower fuel costs (and that elusive ETOPS exemption) you'd do very well indeed!
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:54 pm

Quoting ndhair37 (Reply 73):
I've just commented on another post; but we can probably see a 757 replacement developed by Boeing relatively cheaply using Dreamliner technology.

you mean opposed to deleting everything they learned during development like they usually do?

Quoting ndhair37 (Reply 73):
The 753 never really got to the ball - but with longer range and lower fuel costs (and that elusive ETOPS exemption) you'd do very well indeed!

Airlines still won´t like it. Its no fun to turn them around, its just to long for a single, rather small aisle during boarding. I always liked to see the DE 753 at the jetway, but i still hated boarding them.

best regards
Thomas
 
tommy1808
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 4:19 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 72):
If true, there should be routes - lots of them - that are not feasible for longer range narrow bodies today but will be in 10 years.

You will still end up with a cost problem and lose your traffic to the near hubs. And each of these routes will sustain a WB only a few years later.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 72):
Agreed but being long-term 757 is not by itself a bad thing. For example, UA might add a city in Europe with a 757 from EWR. As the market matures, it adds a 763 from ORD. The EWR stays 757 and caters mostly to local traffic.

Exactly, they can make sense where you have enough premium O&D traffic that actually pays for the luxury of a non stop connection or when network effects make it feasible. But that remains a small niche. If it wasn´t, there would be a B757 successor. But just like the A300 the B757 seem to have been designed for a market that seized to exist, at least to a degree where it does not matter anymore.

best regards
Thomas
 
CargoIT
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 5:25 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 70):
While that is true, any route that works on a B757should grow into the Widebody Segment in under 10 years, even at just about 3% growth, below industry average.

Maybe true for some routes but keep in mind that a 788 or 332 weighs more than twice empty as much as a 738 or 321. I guess a 788 with a "domestic" 2 class configuration could carry ~ 300 PAX but that still only 1.5X as many as the large NBs.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 6:31 pm

A 757 is a narrow body with trans con range. It replacement already exists.

I don't think it's productive to think about a 757 replacement, but I thinks more fruitful to think of what today's 757 looks like. In the '80s range was critical for trans con. Now the need is in lower seat costs and slightly better field performance. So I see a larger narrow body for reasonable TATL but it won't take much of a range bump at all. 220 seats in two classes is great but its a deal breaker if seat costs aren't on par with the new narrow bodies. The focus should be on efficiency instead of performance. I think such an aircraft could do well in Asia where hey have been usine wide bodies for regional lights. They could use the capacity bump but don't need the range.

There already is a 757 replacement however right now the next biggest current era aircraft after a 3.5knm 180- seat 2-class A321 is an 8knm 280 2-class seater. Personally I think there is a need for something in between because not every operator needs that capacity or the range.

tortugamon
 
YYCSpotter
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:01 pm

Quoting Reply 30):

I can almost guarantee you, that if Boeing were to do that, Airlines like Ryanair, Westjet, to name a few, would leap at it. An aircraft with that range and capacity would be ideal for Ryanair to start TATL ops, or Westjet to expand into Hawaii, Europe, and South America. They already lease 752s during the winter for YYC/YEG-HNL/OGG, so I am sure that they would purchase.
 
LH707330
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:14 pm

As lightsaber has repeatedly pointed out, the GTF A321 will have a real range near 3600 nm and get a few PIPs along the way to nudge that closer to 3800, which is basically 752 territory.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 77):

Bingo. Way too many people here obsess about the ~50 frames doing >3k nm trips instead of the thousands doing the short runs. The reason there's a gap between the 321 and the 788 is because there's not enough demand to fill it....
 
tortugamon
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:19 pm

Quoting CargoIT (Reply 76):

ANA's domestic 787s carry 335 in two class while ANZ's long haul 788's will fit 302 in three class. AA's A321s fit just over 100 in three class. There is a very large gap between these two aircraft.

tortugamon
 
SASMD82
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:27 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 77):
A 757 is a narrow body with trans con range. It replacement already exists.

So true. The 739ER and especially the A321 have replaced most (I might think 90/95%) of the current B757 routes.

The market for a plane that fits between the A321-A332 and 739-788, is it that huge to do an investment of bilions of Euros/Dollars? To cover a niche market? Personaly I don't think so. We would probably see a market of Regional wide bodies, such as the A330-300R/A350-900R and probably soon followed by a lighter 787 (787-3 or 787-9R) in stead of investing in a niche plane (with asingle aisle). Especially the 753 was (or is) a nightmare for boarding and disembarcing.

But as an aviation enthusiast, I'd really like to see a new big T-tailed aircraft (something between the MD-80 and Fokker100) as well as a new 757-200.  
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:37 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 80):
ANA's domestic 787s carry 335 in two class while ANZ's long haul 788's will fit 302 in three class. AA's A321s fit just over 100 in three class. There is a very large gap between these two aircraft.

Maybe not the best comparison. AA's A321's are being configured almost as long-haul international aircraft, as far as density is concerned. US, which has a standard domestic layout has 16F/171Y=187pax. Their domestic 757s are 8F/185Y or or 14F/175Y, which is slightly larger, but comparable.

That said, your point stands: right now there is a hole in the airliner market between the 739/A321 and the A332/788. I am not sure whether that hole exists because the OEMs haven't gotten to it or because the airlines have said that they don't need aircraft in that size range. The latter possibility would really surprise me, though.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 7:54 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 79):

I agree with your assessment of the unfounded obsessions. However I do think there is room for a new aircraft. The focus will have to be on efficiency though instead of capability. Which is not like the 757. It does appear that airlines are not currently asking for it but with the increased demand for A321s and 739s it does seem like the likely next step to me.

Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 81):

I am not sure it will be a widebody. They are so much heavier than narrow bodies that on less than 4knm routes if a single aisle can make it, it will be much cheaper to acquire and operate. There are 30 cities of at least 5 million people within 2knm of SIN I don't think current era of North American and European minded aircraft will work in the medium term.

That being said the trend seems to agree with you as more wide bodies are being used for regional service in Asia. However I can't help think that will change not unlike the US changed in the last 15 years.

tortugamon
 
incitatus
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 8:05 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 82):
That said, your point stands: right now there is a hole in the airliner market between the 739/A321 and the A332/788. I am not sure whether that hole exists because the OEMs haven't gotten to it or because the airlines have said that they don't need aircraft in that size range.

That hole exists because of the economics of single vs. dual aisles. Once a second aisle is added, it becomes irresistible financially to move to 8 or 9 abreast. Then the capacity of the wide-body in domestic configuration - 787 with 280-300 seats - becomes too much, and a plane like the 787-3 never sees the light of day.

The 767 cross-section is an oddity that might not be repeated.
 
LH707330
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:55 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 80):
There is a very large gap between these two aircraft.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 82):
I am not sure whether that hole exists because the OEMs haven't gotten to it or because the airlines have said that they don't need aircraft in that size range. The latter possibility would really surprise me, though.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 83):
However I do think there is room for a new aircraft.

There is doubtless room for a new aircraft, but there's not enough of one for an airframer to justify spending $5-10 bn to develop one when there are more pressing projects with higher RoI, like the 777X or the A350. It's good old microeconomics at work.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 84):
That hole exists because of the economics of single vs. dual aisles.

You bring up a good point here. The 767 sold well despite "being the wrong diameter." How much structural efficiency do you lose going from 8 across to 7 across? Phrased differently, could you build a competitive 7Y frame at an equal tech level to an 8Y frame? If the answer is that 8Y is the best by far, then the top end of the gap is likely to persist.

The bottom limit to the gap is defined by how long of a single-aisle plane airlines are willing to tolerate. The 753 is often criticized for the long boarding times, and was reportedly one of the reasons LH didn't buy it for short-haul EU ops. I'm curious to know if a well-designed 753-length plane with a double-wide 2L door could get around this by having passengers enter and turn left and right, thus keeping the aft end similar to an L1-boarded A320. What other problems would it face? Gate spacing at 737/A320 gates could be one obstacle.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:41 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 79):
Bingo. Way too many people here obsess about the ~50 frames doing >3k nm trips instead of the thousands doing the short runs. The reason there's a gap between the 321 and the 788 is because there's not enough demand to fill it....

I have been reading this 50 frames market now several times people quoting each other. I would like to know how this number comes about.
As Icelandair has 22 B 757-200 doing at least during the summer a TATL comparable distance every other day, that leaves only 28 for the rest of the world doing such flights on the B 757-200.
And the max twenty city pairs, also seems to be a agreed upon number. I count 8 such city pairs for Icelandair alone and there could be a few more if the range would be 4.500 - 5.000 nm in a similar sized frame.
And if one compares the A321/B737-900 with the B757-200 the B757-200 will take the same # of pax, baggage and 5 t freight, whereas the A321/B737-900 will only manage the pax + baggage.
So in long haul belly freight is all important but the moment you go to medium distance freight can be disregarded?

IMO their is no B 757 successor, not because nobody would order or need one, but because the duopoly had enough other fish to fry.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:43 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 85):

Certainly I am not advocating giving up on A350 and the 777x in favor of this. After 2022 Boeing will have three aircraft that have EIS within 10 years. They will have time and resources. Close to Half of Everett could be unoccupied by then.

Personally I envision it as the first version of the new single aisle aircraft. The A318s and the 737-7s are done and everything is ratcheting up. I think there will have to be two wings though because they need the 738 and A320 to be optimized.

tortugamon
 
mjoelnir
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:28 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 85):
The bottom limit to the gap is defined by how long of a single-aisle plane airlines are willing to tolerate. The 753 is often criticized for the long boarding times, and was reportedly one of the reasons LH didn't buy it for short-haul EU ops. I'm curious to know if a well-designed 753-length plane with a double-wide 2L door could get around this by having passengers enter and turn left and right, thus keeping the aft end similar to an L1-boarded A320. What other problems would it face? Gate spacing at 737/A320 gates could be one obstacle.

The short haul argument of long turnaround times because of long boarding times, does not not really fit.
We talk about short to medium haul, with the B 757-300 in two class perhaps at 220 pax.
It can not be more difficult than moving the passengers out of a high density A321/B737-900.

I am flying Icelandair quite often to LHR, CPH or JFK and you get sometimes their lonely B 757-300. I have never experienced excessive boarding times compared to the B77-200. They always board through the second door with business turning left and economy turning right.

We just have a thread about 41 pax, including a veteran, had to be left behind on a flight LAX to HNL because of weather were a B 737-800 replaced the former used B 757-200. One could argue that the B 737-800 is used, but not being a good fit to the route.

[Edited 2013-12-06 16:30:13]
 
jfk777
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:06 am

Quoting AA777 (Reply 2):
My question is, what will replace 752s on thin, trans-atlantic routes that US carriers use the 757 on...

The 757 should't be used over the Atlantic, United's use of 757 to LHR, from New York no less, is an insult to consumers. they have corrrected this by now using 763ER's.
 
LH707330
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:28 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 86):
I have been reading this 50 frames market now several times people quoting each other. I would like to know how this number comes about.

It might be a.net folklore, if so I apologize for distributing it. Let's say the number's actually ~100, either way the argument stands.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 86):
IMO their is no B 757 successor, not because nobody would order or need one, but because the duopoly had enough other fish to fry.

Correct, and they have other products that can approximate the 752 or replace it in certain ways. If there's strong demand for 180 pax+freight, the OEMs would be on it.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 87):
Personally I envision it as the first version of the new single aisle aircraft. The A318s and the 737-7s are done and everything is ratcheting up. I think there will have to be two wings though because they need the 738 and A320 to be optimized.

The wings are typically the most important part of the frame, so R&D would be expensive. Moreover, the larger wing would create the usual cascade of higher OEW->beefier gear (more weight)->higher thrust requirements->bigger engines (more weight). A scenario I could see play out is that one OEM optimizes around shorter range and the other around longer range, as they are doing in the wide body market.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 88):
The short haul argument of long turnaround times because of long boarding times, does not not really fit.

True, it's less important on long haul, but if you're also using them short-haul then it does become an issue. If you lose a rotation (say, 9 down to 8) in a day due to additional boarding time, then the extra 5-10% CASM over the shorter frame will likely evaporate. If you decide instead to have one version specifically for longer flights, then we're back to the 50-100 TATL frames, which is not a big market.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:51 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 86):

Joe Ozimek mentioned that 50 aircraft number at Farborough.

It comes out at 1:50 here:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fo9D1C...top_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D4Fo9D1CBGZA

That being said I am not sure most think about KEF when referring to TATL. I think 757s are more widely used in Latin America personally. Even UA is transitioning to 763s from EWR.


tortugamon
 
sweair
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 9:46 am

A replacement is not static, this is where many go wrong along with a WB bias many show. There is a gap of capacity and size in the future, and it would not have to be a true new frame, just upgraded capacity. The A321/739 will never be good for short routes if they have to make longer routes. Its better to split the segment into two families. With 20 t MTOW difference btween them. However these NBs would eat into the regional WB market and none of the fat OEMs want this.

The day there is a NB that can do the regional routes that the WBs do today no new WB regional sales. People get stuck thinking TATL, I see more a reginal ranged NB 4-5000nm for asia, south america etc A frame that fits frequency with 240-250 seats and low cargo need. Under 60t structure vs 90+ for the same routes and number of seats, every t of structure wasting fuel. I would like a comparison between a 250 seat 788 vs a hypothentical 753 with GTF engines and modern wings on a 4000nm route, I am sure the 788 will look quite bad fuel wise here.

If you do two separate families of a NB model one can be better at short range and the other be suited for the longer ranges, most 738s dont need the weight needed to make 3000nm+ routes. Doing all in one frame is stupid and wastes fuel for sure. Large people should stay home instead of whining about NB vs WB aircraft, maybe even go on a diet..  
 
Max Q
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 10:20 am

It won't be replaced.
 
planemaker
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 3:01 pm

Quoting N62NA (Reply 15):
Which unfortunately is at least 20 years away.

So much depends on "unknown unkowns" that it is hard to forecast.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
More like 4 minutes ago.  


As to the topic, you first need to define "what is the true 757 mission"?

Is it carrying ~200 people and their bags 4000nm?

Is it lifting heavy payload weights from short runways?

Is it lifting heavy payload weights from very hot and high airports?

Because those are the few missions a 757-200 can do that an A321-200 can't.



And once you define that mission, you have to then determine just how many airframes are needed for that.

US carriers are the primary ones flying 757-200s TATL because their LCC competition isn't and because the 757-200s are already fully depreciated. I can pretty much guarantee you that they would not be buying new 757-200s at $80 million a pop (after discounts) to perform those missions.

Please cut and paste your post each time this topic comes up! 
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 79):
As lightsaber has repeatedly pointed out, the GTF A321 will have a real range near 3600 nm and get a few PIPs along the way to nudge that closer to 3800, which is basically 752 territory.

And the frame will also get a few PIPs as well.
 
incitatus
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 3:34 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 90):
It might be a.net folklore, if so I apologize for distributing it. Let's say the number's actually ~100, either way the argument stands.

I am confident the number is lot higher. Maybe 400-500 units for a longer range narrow-body - not simply a 757-200 spec. Still, baking in risk, 500 units for a stand-alone narrow body program is not a viable business.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 89):
The 757 should't be used over the Atlantic, United's use of 757 to LHR, from New York no less, is an insult to consumers. they have corrrected this by now using 763ER's.

Maybe the amount of personal space is substandard...? But narrow-bodies in long trips are perfectly fine.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 4:09 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 87):
I have been reading this 50 frames market now several times people quoting each other. I would like to know how this number comes about.
As Icelandair has 22 B 757-200 doing at least during the summer a TATL comparable distance every other day, that leaves only 28 for the rest of the world doing such flights on the B 757-200.
And the max twenty city pairs, also seems to be a agreed upon number. I count 8 such city pairs for Icelandair alone and there could be a few more if the range would be 4.500 - 5.000 nm in a similar sized frame.
And if one compares the A321/B737-900 with the B757-200 the B757-200 will take the same # of pax, baggage and 5 t freight, whereas the A321/B737-900 will only manage the pax + baggage.
So in long haul belly freight is all important but the moment you go to medium distance freight can be disregarded?

IMO their is no B 757 successor, not because nobody would order or need one, but because the duopoly had enough other fish to fry.

this is what I have told in previous topics, a really 757 sucessor, with the same pax capacity and the same range could perform, for example, long haul routes from, for example, brazilian secondary cities to Europe or NA, from my city, CNF-Belo Horizonte, for example, so I don´t think this market is only for 50 units around the world.
 
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cougar15
Posts: 1458
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:10 pm

RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 4:14 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Thread starter):
Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement

Why, the Chinese with the C919 of course......   
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 5:53 pm

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 96):
this is what I have told in previous topics, a really 757 sucessor, with the same pax capacity and the same range could perform, for example, long haul routes from, for example, brazilian secondary cities to Europe or NA, from my city, CNF-Belo Horizonte, for example, so I don´t think this market is only for 50 units around the world.

But this traffic flows through the hubs at the moment, So the capacity of the 757NG would be missing a customers for the 777-747-A380 doing the flights between the major hubs.
 
flyinggoat
Posts: 352
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RE: Who Will A Build A True 757 Replacement?

Sat Dec 07, 2013 6:05 pm

If there were an aircraft with similar capabilities to the 757 developed, I think the manufacture would be dumb not to offer a freighter version from the start. With a 757 type pax airframe operating for a somewhat niche market, a freighter would help offset program cost. I could see FedEx and UPS picking up some.

Regardless, I don't see a separate type of aircraft developed to replace the 757. If anything, it would be part of the A320NEO and 737MAX replacement program.

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