patches
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787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:24 pm

Just a quick question on the 787. I have been gone from the forum for some time so bear with me. Now that the 787-9 is going to be coming soon, will some of the 787-8 be cancelled and switched to 787-9 and the newer yet 10. I have tryed a search on the topic. Thanks, Patches.
 
SonomaFlyer
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:29 pm

We can expect many if not most of the airlines to have language in their contracts that says they can switch from the -8 to -9 etc. They have until a certain number of weeks before assembly is to begin to make their selection (assuming its in production). The price for each model will be set by contract assuming airlines (such as UA) will be ordering all three variants.
 
patches
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:33 pm

Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9 or 10. Also sonamaflyer, thanks for the info.
 
patches
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:41 pm

One more question. when its all said and done, what variation will have sold the most copies? the 787-8 ,9, or 10?
 
United1
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:49 pm

Quoting patches (Reply 2):
Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9 or 10. Also sonamaflyer, thanks for the info.

Yes UA converted some of their 788 orders to 789 and 781s...
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:55 pm

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 1):

We can expect many if not most of the airlines to have language in their contracts that says they can switch from the -8 to -9 etc.

  

Quoting patches (Reply 2):
Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9 or 10. Also sonamaflyer, thanks for the info.

Air Berlin and Air Canada converted some -8s to -9s.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
zkncj
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Tue Dec 24, 2013 10:58 pm

Quoting patches (Reply 2):
Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9

NZ converted its 788s to 789s and became the launch operator for the 789.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:37 am

Quoting patches (Reply 2):
Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9 or 10. Also sonamaflyer, thanks for the info.

Sometimes its hard to say, BA agreed a 787 top up subject to board approval before the launch of the -10, after the -10 launch it was announced that some of this top up would be for -10's now was this a conversion or an order for -10's? Who can tell...
BV
 
SKY1
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:46 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 5):
Air Berlin and Air Canada converted some -8s to -9s.

UX not long ago also converted its B788 options to B789
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DocLightning
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:47 am

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 1):
We can expect many if not most of the airlines to have language in their contracts that says they can switch from the -8 to -9 etc.

As we would expect. It's a horrid business model to penalize your customers for wanting to buy a more expensive product than they originally ordered. "Turning down money" is never a good business practice.  
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flood
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:02 am

Quoting patches (Reply 2):
Has any airline changed there order from an 8 to a 9 or 10.

Aside from those already mentioned, others include Air China, ANA, JAL, Jet Airways, Korean, Vietnam Airlines and various lessors.

Order trend:

http://www.pdxlight.com/787a.jpg

Chart assumes BA's recent order consists of 12x -10s and 6 -9s.
 
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:42 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 5):
Air Berlin and Air Canada converted some -8s to -9s.

Air Berlin has talked about it (actually Etihad has on their behalf) but still not officially converted and to this day order still appears as 788s in Boeing order book.
A
 
Rishul93
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:39 am

Quoting flood (Reply 10):

very interesting graphic, thanks a lot!
 
NAV20
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:16 am

Yes indeed, thanks, flood.

The figures are 'mind-blowing,' really. Over 1,000 orders, and only 50-odd deliveries so far. If all goes well, the 789 will enter service in mid-2004; but by that time the backlog looks like being enormous.

Anyone know what sort of rate of delivery Boeing are ultimately planning? It surely has to be built up to well over 100 a year - possibly as much as double that - just to cope with current demand?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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BreninTW
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:31 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
and only 50-odd deliveries so far

As of November 2013, there have been 103 787 delivered according to Boeing's Orders and Deliveries sheet.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:32 am

Quoting flood (Reply 10):
Chart assumes BA's recent order consists of 12x -10s and 6 -9s.

That's interesting. The -10 is not selling very quickly. Although I'm assuming that with PIPs over time it will gain similar capabilities to the intro -9. Also, it's relatively minimal-change, so the risk isn't huge. Still, that's only about 2.5x the max number of -3 orders.
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United1
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:40 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
50-odd deliveries so far.

103 actually so far...
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
zkncj
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:08 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 13):
The 789 will enter service in mid-2004;

Enters passenger service on 15 October 2014 on AKL-PER-AKL Daily
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press...-world-first-scheduled-787-9-route
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:25 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
That's interesting. The -10 is not selling very quickly.

It's only been available to order for less than six months, so that might have some impact on sales to date.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:50 am

Didn't AA convert some 788 orders to 789?
 
NAV20
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 6:19 am

Sorry for the '50' mistake, guys. Old age.........  
Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 19):
Didn't AA convert some 788 orders to 789?

There seems to be a developing trend that way, affecting many airlines. There's no room for doubt, though, that Boeing identified a 'gap' in the market, and filled it with an excellent, 'game-changing' aeroplane.

On present evidence, after a good start by the 788, the B789 now looks like being the 'star performer.' I have my doubts as to the B787-10 achieving any sort of record sales, though; inevitably, as a 'second stretch,' it's going to lack the range to compete in the current (up to 8,000nms.) sector that most major airlines appear to be concentrating on.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
kengo
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 8:06 am

Quoting patches (Thread starter):

I am not sure how accurate the figures are but pdxlight has a good site that shows all orders/cancellations/type-swap for the B787.

http://www.pdxlight.com/787.htm
 
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neutrino
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 8:42 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 20):
Sorry for the '50' mistake, guys. Old age.........

Understandable. I am almost on the same boat.  

Change of variants after initial order do happen often, sometimes even without prior provisions in the contract if the airline's strategy/requirements do deviate in the long years before start of manufacture or even after. Its a matter of negotiation or $$ compensation or both.
For the 787, though most of the conversions are from the -8 to -9, the reverse had also occurred. Half of SIA/Scoot's 20 -9s in their first order tranche (their second is for 30 -10s) will now be delivered as -8s. I am sure there are other examples as well.
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txlbased
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 9:54 am

Quoting hkcanadaexpat (Reply 11):

AB staff has been told lately by management that all ordered 788 will be converted to 789s
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 10:00 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 19):

Didn't AA convert some 788 orders to 789?

Actually, this is the other way around. They converted 789s to 788s. The original order was 42 for the -9 only, but this changed to 30 -9s and 12 -8s when the order was firmed.
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 2:32 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 20):
sector that most major airlines appear to be concentrating on.

That's not correct, airplanes in the size of the 787/A330 are mostly flying short-haul routes.





What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
a380787
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:07 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):
That's not correct, airplanes in the size of the 787/A330 are mostly flying short-haul routes.

2 points about the skew of that chart :

1. many 787 are in the hands of ANA doing domestic hops, which skews the figure a bit.

2. their definition of "short haul" and "medium haul" is really stretching it. 7 hr HKG-CNS is considered "short haul" and 14 hour JFK-NRT is considered "medium haul". If a standard 738 or 320 can't reach it, it's not "short haul".
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:15 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 26):
1. many 787 are in the hands of ANA doing domestic hops, which skews the figure a bit.

I'm sure the chart will change a bit when more 787 aircraft go into service. But it doesn't make it incorrect because that's how they are used in the real world, at this point in time.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 26):
2. their definition of "short haul" and "medium haul" is really stretching it. 7 hr HKG-CNS is considered "short haul" and 14 hour JFK-NRT is considered "medium haul". If a standard 738 or 320 can't reach it, it's not "short haul".

HKG-CNS is 3009nm, I assume they would list it as medium-haul.

The point I was trying to make, 8000nm routes are are only a very small piece of the pie.

[Edited 2013-12-25 07:17:49]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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rotating14
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:29 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):

So what is considered ULH?
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:40 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 28):
So what is considered ULH?

They don't define ULH because it's less than 1% of all routes. Here's the chart with 777/A340s, everything beyond 6000nm is already limited:

http://s12.postimg.org/5v2qxq06l/Screenshot_from_2013_12_25_16_33_13.png

But again, my point is that 8000nm routes are very limited.

[Edited 2013-12-25 07:42:47]
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PW100
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 3:44 pm

Quoting flood (Reply 10):
Order trend:

Remarkable (totaly unimportant) litte tidbit:
When the first -9 order was booked (early 2006), the -8 stood at around 225 orders, and currenty just short of 500. So over the last eight years the 787-8 gained net orders (after cancellations and conversions) of only around 275, or 35 per year. It seems that once the -9 became avaiable, matching the range of the -8, cleary the larger frame is now by far the more popular.

So to repeat one of the persistently stubborn questions from the various 350 threads:
As the larger version can do everything (and much more) the smaller version can do, at ony marginally more trip cost, why bother with the -8 and why didn't they go straight for the -9 in the first place?

PW100
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KarelXWB
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:09 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 30):
When the first -9 order was booked (early 2006), the -8 stood at around 225 orders, and currenty just short of 500. So over the last eight years the 787-8 gained net orders (after cancellations and conversions) of only around 275, or 35 per year. It seems that once the -9 became avaiable, matching the range of the -8, cleary the larger frame is now by far the more popular.

And out of the 182 B787 orders in 2013, only 22 of them are for the -8.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 30):
As the larger version can do everything (and much more) the smaller version can do, at ony marginally more trip cost, why bother with the -8 and why didn't they go straight for the -9 in the first place?

It's not unthinkable the -8 will eventually end-up like the 767-200 / A330-200 / 777-200ER.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Utah744
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:18 pm

By the time Delta (NWA) gets their B-787 it will the the -17 model.
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Stitch
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 4:55 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 28):
So what is considered ULH?

Boeing defines ULH / "C-Market" as anything over 8000nm / 15000km.



Quoting PW100 (Reply 30):
It seems that once the -9 became avaiable, matching the range of the -8, cleary the larger frame is now by far the more popular.

I also expect the huge delay in EIS of the 787-8 pushed customers towards the 787-9 as availability was no longer as great an issue as it was at program launch and with traffic growth, carriers who thought a 787-8 was sufficient capacity for a route might have re-evaluated new traffic trends and felt a larger plane was more appropriate.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:00 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 29):
They don't define ULH because it's less than 1% of all routes. Here's the chart with 777/A340s, everything beyond 6000nm is already limited:

Very few people in the world have actually taken a long-haul flight by that definition. I define it as >5,000NM. This chart defines it as >6,000NM. Either way, while eight hours on a plane sounds like a long time, it's still only medium haul.
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a380787
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
Boeing defines ULH / "C-Market" as anything over 8000nm / 15000km.

I thought "C market" was defined was anything not reachable by 777-200ER, so even 14000km would fall under that same bucket

But that graph defines JFK-LHR as short haul (exactly 2999nm), which is really stretching the definition
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:32 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 35):
I thought "C market" was defined was anything not reachable by 777-200ER, so even 14000km would fall under that same bucket

I've seen it defined as follows:

A market - 3,900 to 5,200 nautical miles (7,220 to 9,630 km)
B market - 5,800 to 7,700 nautical miles (10,740 to 14,260 km)
C market - 8,000 nautical miles (14,815 km) and greater
 
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DocLightning
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:39 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 35):
But that graph defines JFK-LHR as short haul (exactly 2999nm), which is really stretching the definition

It's just quite literally a borderline situation. I've had JFK-SFO take a lot longer than JFK-LHR (but LHR-JFK is always longer than JFK-SFO).
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rotating14
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 7:41 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 30):

I see it this way. Boeing benefited from beating Airbus to the gate in the New wide body game and by doing so they had the option on how to start. By going the sequential route they gained revenue from deliveries of a smaller less capable model that carriers can now use instead of skipping a model and now having to debate on keeping the lesser model or to keep it.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Wed Dec 25, 2013 7:44 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 38):
I see it this way.

Boeing knew they needed something sized around the A330-200 and the original plan aimed to make the 7E7-8 bridging the 767-300ER/767-400ER in capacity and the 7E7-9 sized similar to the A330-200.

It was through discussions with customers during the development stage that the final decision was to skip the 767 market and size the 787-8 at the A330-200 and the 787-9 at the A330-300 / 777-200.
 
727LOVER
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 3:04 am

I didn't even realize there was a -10....what happened to the -3? That got pulled, right?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
a380787
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:27 am

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 40):
I didn't even realize there was a -10....what happened to the -3? That got pulled, right?

The 787-3 got canned after both JAL and ANA switched to regular models. The 787-10 was recently launched as a 333/772ER replacement, but less range than either 787-8 or 787-9.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 5:21 am

Quoting a380787 (Reply 41):
The 787-3 got canned after both JAL and ANA switched to regular models. The 787-10 was recently launched as a 333/772ER replacement, but less range than either 787-8 or 787-9.

The -10 has 7Knm of range, so that puts it smack dab in between the 772 and 77E.
I'd say pretty sufficient for West Coast-Europe and Trans-Pacific mission.

But while I think the -10 will be a success in it's own respect, the -9 will probably be the winner here.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
a380787
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 5:32 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 42):
But while I think the -10 will be a success in it's own respect, the -9 will probably be the winner here.

agreed. let's see if the Asian airlines would order the 787-10 in big batches for their regional routes, but it's hard to beat the 787-9.
 
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neutrino
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 2:31 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 40):
I didn't even realize there was a -10....what happened to the -3? That got pulled, right?

And pray tell, where have you been all this time. Not to Mars or under a big rock or still lovey-dovey with the 727, I hope.  
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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EPA001
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Thu Dec 26, 2013 10:35 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 25):
That's not correct, airplanes in the size of the 787/A330 are mostly flying short-haul routes.

I guess that shows how versatile these airliners are. The large pice of the pie which represents short haul is actually a bit of a surprise to me. But the airlines must know what they are doing with them otherwise they would not buy these airliners in such high numbers.  
 
strfyr51
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:11 pm

I believe the UA S-CO order was for 25 787-8's the S-UA order changed to 25/25 -10's and 35 A350-1000's
Many of us Believe the -8's will replace all the 767-322's (36) and the -10's will replace the 767-424's and the 777-222's
the A350-1000's will replace the early Delivery 777-222ER's
I still think the jury is OUT on whether the 747-422's will be replaced or just retired..
Many of us are betting on the 747-8 because Boeing Will give us a better price on a Combination Order of 747's and 777X's when it comes to
getting a REAL order the same way we bought the 777-222s and the 747-422's. In Combination Pricing.
Some us even Bet it will depend on whether Delta orders the new 747 too.
 
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cougar15
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:27 pm

Quoting txlbased (Reply 23):
AB staff has been told lately by management that all ordered 788 will be converted to 789s

Danke, ... sounds like some serious EY Influence here on a big scale ........! Guten Rutsch!!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:27 pm

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 46):
I believe the UA S-CO order was for 25 787-8's the S-UA order changed to 25/25 -10's and 35 A350-1000's

CO's order for 25 787s was divided into 11 787-8 and 14 787-9.

UA's initial order for the 787 was 25 787-8s. They then added 1 787-8 and 4 787-9s in 2012 and 10 787-10s in 2013 (as well as doing various model conversions over the years).
 
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lightsaber
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RE: 787 9 And 10

Sun Dec 29, 2013 3:20 pm

Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 1):
We can expect many if not most of the airlines to have language in their contracts that says they can switch from the -8 to -9 etc. They have until a certain number of weeks before assembly is to begin to make their selection (assuming its in production).

There will be much variability. There is not an ability to switch in weeks. Normal cost lead time for components is 2 years. It can be expedited as little as 9 months for a cost of 20% to 30% more per changed part (switch from 788 to 789). The purchasing airline will be billed the cost difference plus a high overhead multiple. So do not expect many changes within 2 years.

To jump to the 78J requires too much of a change to do even that quickly. The contracts will hold to a minimum 18 month lead time. But anything less than 2 years will have a cost penalty for the customer.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
It was through discussions with customers during the development stage that the final decision was to skip the 767 market and size the 787-8 at the A330-200 and the 787-9 at the A330-300 / 777-200.

Some of that is the trade off is accommodating LD3s. IMHO wise to up-gauge.

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