DeltaRules
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Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:37 pm

The ATP Law is rearing its ugly head. USA Today posted a story today describing how some cities in Nebraska and Iowa (EAS cities) are seeing flight cancellations and running the risk of falling under the EAS enplanement floor because the airlines (Great Lakes, etc.) serving them are struggling with staffing.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...-find-small-market-pilots/4450437/

Anybody still believing Chuck Schumer and Captain Sully when they tell us this a great thing and won't create problems?

[Edited 2014-01-13 12:40:42]
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Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter):
Anybody still believing Chuck Schumer and Captain Sully when they tell us this a great thing and won't create problems?

Sadly, most people won't care that Podunk, USA has lost air service, because it's not Los Angeles or New York City.
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lightsaber
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:20 pm

Not a surprise as these flights do not pay the new market rate for an ATP. However, since we're talking $16/hour jobs, its not truly a pilot shortage.


I'm all for making a professional certification worth something. When I see ATP jobs at $50+ per hour going beggging, then I'll know we hit a pilot shortage.

This makes DL look wise. Carry more people on fewer flights. The reality is the new rules made an ATP worth more and until the market rate rises to put supply and demand back in balance, airlines will have to up-gauge which will cut off small cities.    That is just market forces.

With how many 50 seat RJs will be retired, I'm not worried about the majors finding pilots... small providers will have it tough.


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azjubilee
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:21 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):
Sadly, most people won't care that Podunk, USA has lost air service, because it's not Los Angeles or New York City.


Unfortunately this disaster of a rule will have far reaching effects that will be felt throughout the industry. Where do you think the legacy and LCCs get their pilots from? With pretty much all airlines hiring at the moment, they'll be snatching up most pilots from the regionals. Those regionals have to backfill their pilot ranks to stay flying. When they can't do that what do they do? Finally, when there aren't any new regional pilots working up the ranks, who eventually will the legacy/LCC's hire? When the problem eventually trickles up to the legacy/LCCs the pain will be felt industry wide. All thanks to the government who think they know better and have failed broadly at supporting the airline industry as a whole.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):

Unfortunately this disaster of a rule will have far reaching effects that will be felt throughout the industry. Where do you think the legacy and LCCs get their pilots from? With pretty much all airlines hiring at the moment, they'll be snatching up most pilots from the regionals. Those regionals have to backfill their pilot ranks to stay flying. When they can't do that what do they do?

If the legacy carriers get so desperate for pilots, maybe they'll up their revenue agreements with the regionals and the regionals can then pay their pilots a living wage. Of course, in the end, many of the regionals are going to shrink because the legacies simply don't need as many of them as they once did. The number of RJ's flying for DL is going to shrink in the next few years and this will eventually occur at AA and UA too.

The main reason for any shortage isn't because of the government, it's because salaries at the regionals have been so pitifully low, you can't attract anyone.
 
azjubilee
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 2):
This makes DL look wise. Carry more people on fewer flights. The reality is the new rules made an ATP worth more and until the market rate rises to put supply and demand back in balance, airlines will have to up-gauge which will cut off small cities.    That is just market forces.

True, but they could also pay regional pilots a fair wage, before the industry implodes. THEN if operating costs soar so much that a route is not profitable, drop it. Hopefully this impending shortage, which IMO, will indeed happen, will force airlines to operate using realistic wages at the regional level as a normal way of doing business. The P&L of regional airlines based on ridiculously low wages and benefits has got to stop. Hopefully these market forces as you say, will force a much needed shift in the right direction.

[Edited 2014-01-13 13:30:28]
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:28 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 2):
Not a surprise as these flights do not pay the new market rate for an ATP. However, since we're talking $16/hour jobs, its not truly a pilot shortage.


I'm all for making a professional certification worth something. When I see ATP jobs at $50+ per hour going beggging, then I'll know we hit a pilot shortage.

Regardless of what you think of the pay rates, it is obviously a true shortage of pilots. If it can be rectified by more pay, it will be. However, I would guess that the EAS providers will have to rebid the contracts in order to remain solvent.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):

Sadly, most people won't care that Podunk, USA has lost air service, because it's not Los Angeles or New York City.

As evidenced by the post immediately after yours.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:36 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 4):
If the legacy carriers get so desperate for pilots, maybe they'll up their revenue agreements with the regionals and the regionals can then pay their pilots a living wage. Of course, in the end, many of the regionals are going to shrink because the legacies simply don't need as many of them as they once did. The number of RJ's flying for DL is going to shrink in the next few years and this will eventually occur at AA and UA too.

The main reason for any shortage isn't because of the government, it's because salaries at the regionals have been so pitifully low, you can't attract anyone.

I agree, sort of, but I also believe the 1500 rule is unnecessary window dressing and actually doesn't solve the problem. Therefore, I believe the government is heavy handed in the contribution to the impending problem. Unfortunately, regionals still have demand from aspiring pilots who want to make it big and work their way finally to a legacy carrier. I can't blame them, since it's a necessary evil to get your start. The answer is to raise wages and benefits at the regionals, as you say. The legacies have to then bite the bullet and adjust the capacity agreements to reflect the new realistic cost of doing business. Some routes will see the benefit of having a regional partner operate the flight and others will not. THis shrinks the regional business, painfully for some, but in the long run will benefit everyone.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:38 pm

Quoting DeltaRules (Thread starter):
The ATP Law is rearing its ugly head. USA Today posted a story today describing how some cities in Nebraska and Iowa (EAS cities) are seeing flight cancellations and running the risk of falling under the EAS enplanement floor because the airlines (Great Lakes, etc.) serving them are struggling with staffing.
Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 1):
Sadly, most people won't care that Podunk, USA has lost air service, because it's not Los Angeles or New York City.

Are these the same small towns I hear about where some people think the government needs to stop interfering?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 2):
Not a surprise as these flights do not pay the new market rate for an ATP. However, since we're talking $16/hour jobs, its not truly a pilot shortage.


I'm all for making a professional certification worth something. When I see ATP jobs at $50+ per hour going beggging, then I'll know we hit a pilot shortage.

Bingo. There are many people who have considered becoming airline pilots in the US who couldn't make the cost/benefit calculation work out. If it becomes more lucrative and with better hours, the market will adjust.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:39 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 5):
The P&L of regional airlines based on ridiculously low wages and benefits

Only a few have such wages. Those are the ones that will bleed first (as currently evidenced by Great Lakes.)

Others are quite livable once you make it past probation. Maybe you couldn't afford that Hummer as DL or WN pilots might, but you could still get a nice Accord.

[Edited 2014-01-13 13:41:32]
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azjubilee
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 9):
Only a few have such wages. Those are the ones that will bleed first (as currently evidenced by Great Lakes.)

Others are quite livable once you make it past probation. Maybe you couldn't afford that Hummer as DL or WN pilots might, but you could still get a nice Accord.

I flew at a "good" regional for 11 years. Great Lakes is indeed the extreme bottom of the barrel, but the rest of the industry isn't that much better. "Quite livable" if you're lucky not to have student loans to pay off or credit card debt from living off them as a broke flight instructor/new regional FO. Not livable if you have a family. As an FO, especially on reserve you are not making livable wages and barely so if you're a line holder. The game changes when you upgrade to Captain, if you're lucky enough to have caught a good wave and upgraded quickly. Even then you're not living in the lap of luxury. If you endure life as a regional FO for any prolonged period of time, it's a living nightmare.

[Edited 2014-01-13 13:50:58]

[Edited 2014-01-13 13:52:10]
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:28 pm

The Regionals can solve their problem in the short term by paying pilots for Duty time rather than flight time. In that way the pilots will make more in a day and the regionals might stem the loss of pilots in the short term.
without raising flight time to $50-60 per hour immediately which the job has the responsibility and preparedness in education FOR. Only someone who hasn't had to PAY for flight training would disagree with me.
. It's GOING to hurt either way. But if you're on duty for work? you should be Paid to be AT work..
This will also make the airlines schedule more efficiently as well. Because they're going to PAYone way or the other if they're going to have pilots to fly at ALL!
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:40 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 9):
Only a few have such wages. Those are the ones that will bleed first (as currently evidenced by Great Lakes.)

Others are quite livable once you make it past probation. Maybe you couldn't afford that Hummer as DL or WN pilots might, but you could still get a nice Accord.

Sure, it is ok, as long as you didn't have to pay for your flight hours to get your ratings... If you paid for it all with student loans, looking at a modest flight cost/hr (assuming little flight instructing after CFI/CFII) you are looking at near $450,000. Then add in the interest on all those loans, take an average of 7.5%, Lets call it $490,000. Assuming the standard 10 year repayment plan, and if you do not make payments while in school, that adds up to a whopping:

$49,000/year or:
$4,000/month.

Please tell me they have a livable wage for having to pay that much back.

Take these numbers with a grain of salt, as this is really a perfect storm. I do not count for the following:

1. Cash saved before training
2. any significant flight instructing after CFI/CFII
3. Assuming you reach the end of your training within the 1500 hours and complete the ATP at 1500 hours
4. the cost of check rides, and written exams, and study materials
5. the cost of gas, if you do not wet-lease
6. the cost of an instructor, which can vary from $20-$50/hr

I assume the following,

~50 hours multi engine, standard midwestern rate of about $300/hour
~50 hours of complex time in Bonanza or similar about $250/hour
~1,505 hours needed to attain ATP (I added the 5 hours for check ride or perhaps discovery flight)
Also, I assume all hours flown after Multi-engine and complex/high performance was single engine, C150/C172 at the average rate of ~$130/hr without fuel.

**** These numbers are a few years old(2009), I ran this calculation when I decided to give up flying for a career, and settled on flying for fun.*****

[Edited 2014-01-13 14:42:45]
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
Unfortunately this disaster of a rule will have far reaching effects that will be felt throughout the industry. Where do you think the legacy and LCCs get their pilots from? With pretty much all airlines hiring at the moment, they'll be snatching up most pilots from the regionals. Those regionals have to backfill their pilot ranks to stay flying. When they can't do that what do they do? Finally, when there aren't any new regional pilots working up the ranks, who eventually will the legacy/LCC's hire? When the problem eventually trickles up to the legacy/LCCs the pain will be felt industry wide. All thanks to the government who think they know better and have failed broadly at supporting the airline industry as a whole.

It's not the government's job to broadly support the industry as a whole. It's their job to balance what the industry needs against what the public needs.

I disagree with the characterization of the 1500 hour rule as being window dressing. I am in favor of many things that directly or indirectly increase pilot training and pilot rest.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 4):

The main reason for any shortage isn't because of the government, it's because salaries at the regionals have been so pitifully low, you can't attract anyone.

Pilot demographics and rule changes are definitely going to cut the supply of pilots. In turn demand will drive salaries up. It will also mean less total commercial pilots in the short term, but it's pretty clear that was going to be happening anyway given the low pay and high cost of becoming a pilot.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 12:37 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 5):
Hopefully this impending shortage, which IMO, will indeed happen, will force airlines to operate using realistic wages at the regional level as a normal way of doing business. The P&L of regional airlines based on ridiculously low wages and benefits has got to stop.

It's not happening this week: AA and American Eagle announced what one could call another concessionary regional contract: a pay freeze and increased pilot health care contributions.

Just as one might portray a few missed Great lakes flights as evidence of a pilot shortage, the AE contract says it's not here yet.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 12:44 am

This seems to be working itself out a little bit, not on the pilot shortage side but more on the "squeezing Great Lakes out of the market" side.

Several of the cheaper/fuller EAS cities in the Midwest that Great Lakes has are up for rebid, and cities are starting to take note of Great Lakes' unreliability at the same time.

Regulations.gov is down at the moment, but I know OO has put in a bid for JMS-DEN and DVL-DEN to replace ZK and both cities are clamoring for it. ATY, TVF, FOD, MCW are all just a few of the cities up for re-bid in 2014. All were former Mesaba stations that knew once what it was like to have a network carrier and you can bet they are going to push hard for any jet service that sniffs in their direction (though for some of those cities it would be incredibly unlikely). And OO loves to play the at-risk game.

Not only that, several of the smaller cities are being targeted by the likes of Air Choice One and Cape Air, with aircraft legal to fly Part 135. It seems to be gaining in popularity for the cities that actually need the service. If you need it that badly, you'll climb into the back of a C208. If not, you'll drive. And they're reaping the benefits, since it's more economical to fill 4 of 9 seats on a C208 than it is to fill 4 of 19 seats on a 1900.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 12:46 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 13):
I disagree with the characterization of the 1500 hour rule as being window dressing. I am in favor of many things that directly or indirectly increase pilot training and pilot rest.

How does the 1500 hour rule itself increase training? The way I understand it, it just requires (much) more time to be built than before.

The only 121 accident in the 2000s to involve a pilot with less than 1500 hours was the Pinnacle crash in Jefferson City, MO, and that accident happened because the pilots were goofing around trying to reach the top of the CRJ's service ceiling and flamed out both engines. The hypocrisy comes from the fact that the Colgan crew had 2200 and 3200, yet it punishes people who may be capable of quality work at under 1500.

The crew rest rules are fine. Randomly saying "You need 1500 hours to fly commercially and not a tenth less" isn't, especially since those who can afford it can get 250-500 hours off thanks to the bone the government threw universities to get them to shut up.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:24 am

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 16):
How does the 1500 hour rule itself increase training?

The same way a 1500 second rule would decrease training.

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 16):
The way I understand it, it just requires (much) more time to be built than before.

And unless you think you learn nothing in those hours it's a good thing.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:39 am

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 8):
Are these the same small towns I hear about where some people think the government needs to stop interfering?

They won't be bitching when they can't get to Orlando or Branson via a one stop.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 12):

Take these numbers with a grain of salt, as this is really a perfect storm. I do not count for the following:

I should say so, your numbers seem to be absolute worst case scenario to me. You can easily do it for a fraction of much.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 12):

I assume the following,

~50 hours multi engine, standard midwestern rate of about $300/hour
~50 hours of complex time in Bonanza or similar about $250/hour
~1,505 hours needed to attain ATP (I added the 5 hours for check ride or perhaps discovery flight)
Also, I assume all hours flown after Multi-engine and complex/high performance was single engine, C150/C172 at the average rate of ~$130/hr without fuel.

I assume that you're assuming that someone is going to go up and rent a plane and fuel and fly around in circles for 1300 hours or so to build time?

On what planet does that happen? Don't most people instruct after they get their CFI and/or fly night cargo to build up their time? That would throw off your calculations quite a bit.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 12):
**** These numbers are a few years old(2009), I ran this calculation when I decided to give up flying for a career, and settled on flying for fun.*****

Likewise. It just wasn't worth it. It would be at least a decade before I made what I make now, and that doesn't take into the account the debt I would incur. Just not worth it.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 2:35 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 5):
True, but they could also pay regional pilots a fair wage, before the industry implodes.

How? Just a few years ago we were having threads on how the majors could force regionals to take contracts at break even or a small loss. That put pressure on the wages naturally. It is going to take several regionals declaring bankruptcy to fix the issue.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 6):
Regardless of what you think of the pay rates, it is obviously a true shortage of pilots. If it can be rectified by more pay, it will be. However, I would guess that the EAS providers will have to rebid the contracts in order to remain solvent.

A shortage for Great Lakes?    But that is pilots willing to fly EAS for the wages offered. I bet B6, with their lowest wage at $49/hour is not having trouble attracting ATP applicants.

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 9):
Only a few have such wages. Those are the ones that will bleed first (as currently evidenced by Great Lakes.)

  

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 12):
Please tell me they have a livable wage for having to pay that much back.

   Oh, we might debate a figure, but right now Great Lakes will have trouble hiring talent.

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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:43 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
here do you think the legacy and LCCs get their pilots from?

The military
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:44 am

Quoting 777stl (Reply 18):
I assume that you're assuming that someone is going to go up and rent a plane and fuel and fly around in circles for 1300 hours or so to build time?

On what planet does that happen? Don't most people instruct after they get their CFI and/or fly night cargo to build up their time? That would throw off your calculations quite a bit.

I did account for just burning time, flying for fun, not training others, using a CFI. I never intended to be an instructor, and there are many pilots who do not have what it takes to instruct. That does not say they are bad pilots... But it takes a special kind of person to risk their life in a plane with someone who has no idea what they are doing, not to mention they must have the patience of a saint.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 18):
I should say so, your numbers seem to be absolute worst case scenario to me. You can easily do it for a fraction of much.

They are. And in reality, they could be much worse if your interest rate is any higher, or if you happen to miss payments. You can do it cheaper if you instruct for most of those 1300 hours, but it is getting harder to instruct, because people see the numbers, and if they aren't making enough money to cover it, they don't use the luxury of flying themselves around.

You may be able to get a job at an FBO somewhere, but you may not have students for months, or you may have a few occasional flyers. Either way, most people these days do not have that kind of (or any) extra cash to put into flying.

Meanwhile, you must still continue to fly to maintain currency, and you must still pay the loans back, unless you remain taking classes, which also adds to the debt load.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:30 am

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 21):
You may be able to get a job at an FBO somewhere, but you may not have students for months, or you may have a few occasional flyers.

Try living in the Midwest this time of year. Not much VFR flying to be had, and you can't go up into known icing, so that puts a crimp on Instrument training.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:46 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 13):
I disagree with the characterization of the 1500 hour rule as being window dressing. I am in favor of many things that directly or indirectly increase pilot training and pilot rest.

As someone noted, there have not been issues with people under 1500 hours. In fact, most of the issues have been with people having significantly more time than that. 1500 hours will have zero impact on overall safety.

Quoting 777stl (Reply 18):
On what planet does that happen? Don't most people instruct after they get their CFI and/or fly night cargo to build up their time? That would throw off your calculations quite a bit.

Not as many of those gigs around anymore, it's not like anyone needs to fly canceled checks around.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:21 am

The fact that the FAA/Washington think that 1500 somehow is the definition of professionalism is just silly. The fact that they think that you can teach professionalism to someone is even sillier. There was nothing wrong with the former flight hour rules.

[Edited 2014-01-13 21:57:54]
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:29 am

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 22):
Try living in the Midwest this time of year. Not much VFR flying to be had, and you can't go up into known icing, so that puts a crimp on Instrument training.

I trained at OJC and SLN haha I am well aware of the weather limitations.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:57 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
How? Just a few years ago we were having threads on how the majors could force regionals to take contracts at break even or a small loss. That put pressure on the wages naturally. It is going to take several regionals declaring bankruptcy to fix the issue.

As we already established, the legacies have to adjust their fee for departure and capacity agreements to reflect the realities of a regional with adequate wages. Since 9/11 the legacies have exploited to no end the use of their regional partners and IMO played the game far too long and hard. IF they can't run their regional business when the assumption of appropriate wages, they need to get out of the business or make adjustments.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 20):
The military

THis isn't the 80s and 90s anymore. Sorry, there are far fewer military pilots joining the ranks at the legacies and LCCs than civilian regional pilots. Yes, there are some, but not in the numbers of the past.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 13):
It's not the government's job to broadly support the industry as a whole. It's their job to balance what the industry needs against what the public needs.

I disagree with the characterization of the 1500 hour rule as being window dressing. I am in favor of many things that directly or indirectly increase pilot training and pilot rest.

What I"m saying is that if this Nation had a broad pro aviation policy that recognizes that working WITH the airline industry is far better than constantly punishing and working against. it. Look at the success of the Middle east airlines and airlines that are from countries where their governments are not standing in the way of their business. As for the 1500 hour rule, it most certainly is window dressing. Tell me how a hard fast number like 1500 is going to instantly ensure safe and competent pilots. YOu mean the pilot with 1200, 1400 or even 1499 is somehow less safe and competent than someone with 1501 or 1600 hours? It's an arbitrary number that is meaningless. Good training, effective mentoring and meaningful support from management is what will make a competent pilot at an airline, not some random number.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:03 am

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 26):
THis isn't the 80s and 90s anymore. Sorry, there are far fewer military pilots joining the ranks at the legacies and LCCs than civilian regional pilots. Yes, there are some, but not in the numbers of the past.

Cause the military is barely 40% the size it was in the 80's and 90's...just sayin. But the fact is that a great deal of the hirings are still coming from the military.
 
300CAP
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:14 pm

The article says that pilots with 1500 hours of flight are usually hired by the major/global airlines. In the real world pilots hired by the major/global airlines have much more flight hours and experience than 1500 hours. I belieive that the novice reporter was basing their writing on the 1500 flight hour FAA requirement to take Airline Transport Rating exam and flight test.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 26):
As we already established, the legacies have to adjust their fee for departure and capacity agreements to reflect the realities of a regional with adequate wages.

Not DL. They'll upgauge. This is musical chairs with declining regional flying. The majors will bid out each new regional contract the same way they did before; going with the lowest bidder who has a reasonable chance of meeting the requirements. Do I think regional wages will go up?    But it will take a bankruptcy or more precisely, fewer bidders for each RJ contract.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 26):
Since 9/11 the legacies have exploited to no end the use of their regional partners and IMO played the game far too long and hard. IF they can't run their regional business when the assumption of appropriate wages, they need to get out of the business or make adjustments.

They went to that business model to keep from getting out of the business. But thanks to all the mergers, the RJ business will be able to be consolidated to 76 seat RJs allowing for better wages. However, the contracts are still bid out. That part won't change. So if any RJ provider is able to secure lower wages, they will be more likely to win the contracts. There is no need for the majors to assume 'appropriate wages.' This is a bid for contract. Hence why they are spinning off their RJ divisions...


Lightsaber
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Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 2:06 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
Not DL. They'll upgauge.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
They went to that business model to keep from getting out of the business. But thanks to all the mergers, the RJ business will be able to be consolidated to 76 seat RJs allowing for better wages.

The problem, though, is that DL has this thing about driving their costs lower by making their regionals do more for less, and not in a "be the lowest bidder" sense, but in the "Be near the lowest bidder to retain what you have" sense, which is strangling the regionals and putting them into a "coffin corner" situation.
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enilria
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 2:33 pm

Since 90% of the EAS program is little more than a scam, perhaps it will motivate a change.
 
MountainFlyer
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 2:48 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 20):
The military
Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 27):
But the fact is that a great deal of the hirings are still coming from the military.

I'm not sure if you heard the news, but the military is having trouble attracting pilots as well. I read an article a few months back about how they are beginning to offer some pretty sweet signing bonuses because they can't find enough pilots. Don't forget, a good chunk of military pilots started off their training in the civilian world just like everyone else. That well is drying up too.



I'm no economics expert, but some seem to think this is just going to force the long desired bump in wages for pilots and life is all good again. I disagree. You forget the other side of the equation; paying for those wages. The more likely outcome, in my humble opinion, is a dropping off of the bottom end where ticket prices won't support the required bump in wages. In other words, there will be better paying pilot jobs, but fewer of them, and less service to rural America. The market will react by reducing the need for pilots more-so than bringing more pilots in. Although, that's just my opinion.
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DashTrash
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:43 pm

Quoting 300CAP (Reply 28):
The article says that pilots with 1500 hours of flight are usually hired by the major/global airlines. In the real world pilots hired by the major/global airlines have much more flight hours and experience than 1500 hours. I belieive that the novice reporter was basing their writing on the 1500 flight hour FAA requirement to take Airline Transport Rating exam and flight test.

In the original article published in a small town paper last summer, a manager from Lakes was referring to Skywest / ASA / RPA as "major" airlines.

The reality is that Lakes is now on a level playing field with every other airline out there and $16 an hour with outstation basing in a turboprop doesn't attract much talent when compared to a hub base and flying a jet at $25 or more an hour (even $25 an hour is laughable). The only redeeming feature Lakes might have is a fast upgrade. That's it.
 
mpdpilot
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 4:54 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 23):
Not as many of those gigs around anymore, it's not like anyone needs to fly canceled checks around.

Come to Phoenix if you want to be a flight instructor, I know plenty of schools out here looking for pilots and they are often paid better than the regionals...
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
azjubilee
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:31 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 29):
Not DL. They'll upgauge. This is musical chairs with declining regional flying. The majors will bid out each new regional contract the same way they did before; going with the lowest bidder who has a reasonable chance of meeting the requirements. Do I think regional wages will go up?    But it will take a bankruptcy or more precisely, fewer bidders for each RJ contract.

We're essentially saying the same thing. I believe that if the regional airline industry as a whole were able to raise wages to appropriate levels, their legacy partners will be forced to change their CPAs to reflect that. It can still be work that is put out to bid, to the lowest bidder, but that lowest bidder will have realistic and fair wages as apart of their "new" cost of doing business. If that means that the legacy carrier will have to shrink their regional business and upgauge flights or reduce frequency, then so be it. We see that, as you say, with DL at the moment. Things will start to right itself and the supply and demand forces for regional flying will sort itself out. Unfortunately, there's always someone willing to do it for less, which will put a strain on the collective efforts.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 20):
The military
Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 27):
But the fact is that a great deal of the hirings are still coming from the military.

I heard at a recent conference that UA's pilot pool consists of less than 10% ex-military pilots, and that the regional pilot pool is under 4%. Obviously I don't have a source for that.
 
DashTrash
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:18 pm

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 36):
I heard at a recent conference that UA's pilot pool consists of less than 10% ex-military pilots, and that the regional pilot pool is under 4%. Obviously I don't have a source for that.

86% from other sources? Unless there's a ton of fractional guys trying to get on at UAL, I think those numbers are way off.
 
JHwk
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 32):
The more likely outcome, in my humble opinion, is a dropping off of the bottom end where ticket prices won't support the required bump in wages. In other words, there will be better paying pilot jobs, but fewer of them, and less service to rural America.

...which will likely lead to a different business model and regulatory standards for support of smaller communities, or further marginalization. Economically, the latter is not a great solution.

Maybe it will come down to pilot-less air taxis, puddle-jumping routes, or something else.

I just know I hate to drive four hours after a long flight to get somewhere.
 
silentbob
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:56 pm

Anyone want to fund my flight school/EAS provider startup?
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:32 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 30):
The problem, though, is that DL has this thing about driving their costs lower by making their regionals do more for less

Agreed. Hence, fly 76 seaters for as close to the cost of 50 seaters as possible.

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 32):
I'm no economics expert, but some seem to think this is just going to force the long desired bump in wages for pilots and life is all good again. I disagree. You forget the other side of the equation; paying for those wages. The more likely outcome, in my humble opinion, is a dropping off of the bottom end where ticket prices won't support the required bump in wages.

Agreed that marginal destinations will be dropped. Too many of those airports are within driving distance of a major airport. Heck, ATL is *so* much cheaper than many of the regional airports, I know quite a few people who fly into ATL and then drive up to 5 hours...

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 35):
I believe that if the regional airline industry as a whole were able to raise wages to appropriate levels, their legacy partners will be forced to change their CPAs to reflect that. It can still be work that is put out to bid

If they could collaborate, it would raise wages, minus a few dropped cities.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 38):
...which will likely lead to a different business model and regulatory standards for support of smaller communities, or further marginalization. Economically, the latter is not a great solution.

But how does one say 'your town is so small, you get the inexperienced pilots'? I think the next turboprops/RJs must have autonomous copilots. Where great lakes flies is not a high margin business and the short flights are discretionary. Besides my ATL example, I know people who dislike turboprops who fly into DEN and then rent a car for a few hour drive to Teluride or other small CO airports.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 35):
If that means that the legacy carrier will have to shrink their regional business and upgauge flights or reduce frequency, then so be it.

As long as you realize that means cities dropping off the map, then that is just market forces. e.g., servicing 5 flights per day doesn't really cost any more than servicing 3 due to having the staff wait around for the next flight...


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ROSWELL41
Posts: 777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting flanker (Reply 24):
The fact that the FAA/Washington think that 1500 somehow is the definition of professionalism is just silly. The fact that they think that you can teach professionalism to someone is even sillier. There was nothing wrong with the former flight hour rules.

Actually there was something very wrong with the former flight hour rules. I agree that '1500 hours' may be an arbitrary standard, but the number had to be increased. As someone who has worked in the airline business for a while, this was a needed change. 250 hour pilots in the right seat of a jet airliner is just not enough experience. The right seat of an airliner is not an 'apprenticeship' position, but one of very defined responsibilities. Professional pilots should not be 'cutting their teeth' in the right seat of an airliner and I think this law ensures that.
 
comair25
Posts: 215
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:26 pm

Quoting 777stl (Reply 18):
On what planet does that happen? Don't most people instruct after they get their CFI and/or fly night cargo to build up their time? That would throw off your calculations quite a bit.

No they don't because most do not have part 135 min to go fly "cargo at night". Who in their right mind would instruct full time during the day and go attempt to fly "cargo at night"
 
ROSWELL41
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 31):
Since 90% of the EAS program is little more than a scam, perhaps it will motivate a change.

I agree with this, especially on most EAS service in the lower 48 states. Alaskan communities do rely on EAS due to their lack of roads. Airlines like Great Lakes will have to pay the going wage for an ATP pilot or go out of business. They are truly the lowest paying 121 airline in the US and relied on low time pilots to fill their right seats. Working against them is also that many legacy and LCCs prefer pilots with jet experience of which Great Lakes has none. This was not as large of a factor years ago, but having jet experience is now becoming standard in the US 121 arena.
 
Flighty
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:41 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 12):
$49,000/year or:
$4,000/month.

Please tell me they have a livable wage for having to pay that much back.

Of course not. A person who spent 450k to be a pilot is called an idiot. Idiots are always in money trouble. It's not a wage problem.
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:51 pm

Quoting comair25 (Reply 42):
No they don't because most do not have part 135 min to go fly "cargo at night". Who in their right mind would instruct full time during the day and go attempt to fly "cargo at night"

Many regional pilots have gone to cargo flying... Not too many jobs for that anymore.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 44):
Of course not. A person who spent 450k to be a pilot is called an idiot. Idiots are always in money trouble. It's not a wage problem.

Really? Because the cost in reality is very high. Sure you can get it a little cheaper, maybe $350k, or depending on scholarships, or grants, or rich relatives, maybe even cheaper. But now a days the military isn't a great option (not a bad option, but in terms of commercial aviation), and there are very few other ways to finance this.

But, I MUST admit you are RIGHT... This is why regional airlines can't fill their pilot classes, people realize that the cost will nearly bankrupt them in the short term. Sure, a 777 Captain at AA or DL might be making $200k+ but the time it takes to get there will financially ruin you.
 
ROSWELL41
Posts: 777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:17 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 45):
Really? Because the cost in reality is very high. Sure you can get it a little cheaper, maybe $350k, or depending on scholarships, or grants, or rich relatives, maybe even cheaper. But now a days the military isn't a great option (not a bad option, but in terms of commercial aviation), and there are very few other ways to finance this.

I don't understand where these high dollar figures come from? 350k to 450k USD is way overestimating the costs of a Bachelor's Degree and flight training combined. Are you estimating paying out of pocket for 1500 hours of flight time? That would increase the cost considerably, but why would anyone do that?
 
Unclekoru
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:54 pm

This is a very interesting subject for someone looking in from the outside. I find it hard to believe how little it appears pilots (in particular F/O's) are paid to work in these regional operations.

I assume when someone mentions pilots are paid by flight hour, this is only a proportion of their salary? Is a retainer (or base salary) paid as well? About the only people paid by flight hour here are some unfortunate flying instructors (CFIs).

A Q300 F/O in New Zealand earns somewhere between 44,000 and 52,000 USD per annum. Add allowances as well (approx 8K PA). How does this compare to US operators?
It sounds like english, but I can't understand a word you're saying
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:57 pm

Quoting roswell41 (Reply 46):
I don't understand where these high dollar figures come from? 350k to 450k USD is way overestimating the costs of a Bachelor's Degree and flight training combined. Are you estimating paying out of pocket for 1500 hours of flight time? That would increase the cost considerably, but why would anyone do that?

I am estimating paying out of pocket for all training. With the current market for flight instructors, and the lack of serious students, it was the best way to estimate. Of course some flight instruction will help with the costs, but it is too difficult to apply that to the estimation, one way or another that is the estimate of cost. This is what the cost would be if you pay out of pocket, flight instruct and some of those hours are aid by a student, or take out student loans. Which is why for easy calculations, I estimated on financing the entire training.

As to why anyone would do that? I can think of several reasons... Me personally, I do not have the patience to teach. I would lose my passion for flight if I had to flight instruct. That is a personal opinion. Other reasons can include:

lack of students to instruct
not having the patience
not having the time to spend waiting several years to get the hours

Everyone has their own reasons... I know a few pilots who were flight instructors and hated it, I know a few who loved it. I also know a few who financed all of their training, similar to my example above, except they were more financially well off and did not have to take out as much in loans.
 
ROSWELL41
Posts: 777
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2001 3:50 am

RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:58 pm

Quoting Unclekoru (Reply 47):
A Q300 F/O in New Zealand earns somewhere between 44,000 and 52,000 USD per annum. Add allowances as well (approx 8K PA). How does this compare to US operators?

That is higher than in the USA. When I was on fifth year pay as a CRJ-200/700/900 FO, I made close to $50,000 USD and that was the best I ever did at a regional airline.

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