Mir
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 2:26 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
If I suggest we think about widening it to include all "developed country" aviation

Except that we're talking about the US system of pilot development, which is very different from those of other developed countries. So including the accidents you're talking about can lead to very misleading conclusions.

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Web500sjc
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 2:49 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
Swissair (not pilot error)

although the primary cause of the fire is not pilot error, that accident is now used as the model of "if you suspect fire, Land as soon as Practical/ possible, do not dump fuel, do not go to an outstation, land at the first available airport that can handle your aircraft." So I wouldn't use that particular incident as a non-pilot error crash.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
Why not? Cuz IMO the real problem, if any, may lie in widebodies. Tiny minority of departures.

what you are really highlighting in that subset is pilots reliant on automation.

to add to other wide body accidents in developed nations, AF358, FX80, LH cargo 8460, Air transat 236, FX647, FX14, FX87, UPS1354, UPS 6971

Quoting Mir (Reply 200):
Except that we're talking about the US system of pilot development, which is very different from those of other developed countries.

5 of these accidents are on US airlines.

[Edited 2014-02-05 19:06:48]
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:05 am

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 201):
although the primary cause of the fire is not pilot error, that accident is now used as the model of "if you suspect fire, Land as soon as Practical/ possible, do not pump fuel, do not go to an outstation, land at the first available airport that can handle your aircraft." So I wouldn't use that particular incident as a non-pilot error crash.

Please. You are saying that an accident that changed procedure is a pilot error because the pilots did not follow the procedure they are showing is necessary? And a procedure even if flown as now recommended still would have had the same sad outcome?
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Web500sjc
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:17 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 202):
Please. You are saying that an accident that changed procedure is a pilot error because the pilots did not follow the procedure they are showing is necessary? And a procedure even if flown as now recommended still would have had the same sad outcome?

Sorry, I hadn't read the point in the report that they would have been unable to save the aircraft even if they had diverted straight to halifax. I thought they would have been able to land if they had gone straight for the runway. I learn something new every day.

But the accident is still a good example concerning the uncertainty of anything fire/smoke related. when you see smoke, Always land ASAP.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:28 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 194):
Well, at least for pilots that don't want to work for fast food chain wages.......

Agreed. Funny how supply/demand curves finally catch up.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 196):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 192):
I'm begging to think we have a *slight* national pilot shortage.

It's a blockage IMO not a shortage.

Either way, it will have a small impact. I see it accelerating the transition to larger gauge aircraft (less fuel per passenger). Smaller O&D markets will unfortunately suffer as the smaller RJs are parked.

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ual777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:05 am

Gonna chime in here...

First 1500 hours is not some magically impossible flight time number. It's 1.5 to 2 years of flight instructing. If you go to a 4 year university it's less. We have all done it and it's a fabulous way to gain experience.

The real issue here is that the regional model has chocked the golden goose. Regionals in the US have paid too little for too long and that has scared away a LOT of potential pilots. A correction in wages is coming and it is long overdue along with the new rest rules. The old ones were flat out dangerous. At my airline we had 8:30 minute overnights with a trip through customs and a 30 minute van ride each way. You then arrived at a hotel in Mexico with nothing to eat and the hotel restaurant was closed. It was abysmal.

If the regionals raise wages for FOs the problem will solve itself. Great Mistakes is going out of business because they pay food stamp wages. The shift to 70 seat RJs will help, but you can't expect people to put in the money and effort that this career requires and then pay $18.5, $30, and $38,000 dollars. (My first 3 W2s)
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:42 am

Quoting ual777 (Reply 205):
Regionals in the US have paid too little for too long and that has scared away a LOT of potential pilots. A correction in wages is coming and it is long overdue along with the new rest rules.

PSA just signed a new contract that is 10 years ( I believe) in length. You are not going to see airlines suddenly hand out big raises to pilots, especially as they are trying to hold down costs in order to make a profit on the deals with the major airlines. Those deals don't allow for significant increases in pay.
 
planemaker
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 192):
But in some ways this is only forcing rationalization that should have already occurred.

And will continue. Looking back, I remember a decade ago when AW&ST had blazoned across their cover: AND THEN THERE WERE SIX. And it is funny how many on here said it was impossible... or said that it wouldn't (couldn't) happen to their airline (or airline they were a fan of).

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Mir
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:40 pm

Quoting silentbob (Reply 206):
PSA just signed a new contract that is 10 years ( I believe) in length. You are not going to see airlines suddenly hand out big raises to pilots, especially as they are trying to hold down costs in order to make a profit on the deals with the major airlines.

They will if they have to. If they need pilots, they're going to have to pay for them. They can put as many planes at PSA as they like, but if PSA can't get enough pilots those planes are useless.

It's been an employer's market for a while, and we've seen the wages that result. But that's turning around now - it's about to be an employee's market at the regional level. And pilots would be stupid to give that away by negotiating long-term deals at today's wages that stretch into tomorrow's economy. The PSA pilot group was stupid enough, unfortunately, but Expressjet wasn't, and it doesn't look like Eagle will be.

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JHwk
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:52 pm

Quoting ual777 (Reply 205):

Can an instructor really get 750+ hours a year?! I would think 400 would be optimistic.

I keep thinking the simple solution to the shortage is to just kill EAS.
 
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:07 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 204):
Quoting point2point (Reply 194):
Well, at least for pilots that don't want to work for fast food chain wages.......

Agreed. Funny how supply/demand curves finally catch up.

It clearly looks like the years long gradual race to the bottom will indeed find bottom and hit it with a resounding thud.

All the recent governmental actions did is change the trajectory from one of a curve to one of a cliff.
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DashTrash
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Thu Feb 06, 2014 9:09 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 197):
Fortunately computers do most of the flying.

Keep telling yourself that.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
If I suggest we think about widening it to include all "developed country" aviation, we get AF 447, Asiana at SFO, AF A340 at YYZ, Swissair (not pilot error), TWA (not pilot error)... yes, American... BA 777 (not pilot error)...

Apples and oranges from a training, cultural, and operational aspect.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
Plenty of widebody freighters have been lost...

Another apples and oranges comparison. Most passenger pilots have never seen loads shift, laptop batteries explode or back side of the clock ops.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 199):
No clear dataset has been presented that young pilots -- or particularly RJs or regionals -- are more likely to crash per departure, or per flight hour.

Not every chain of errors leads to a crash. There is plenty of data out there on ASRS, ASAP, and incident databases.

Quoting ual777 (Reply 205):
The real issue here is that the regional model has chocked the golden goose. Regionals in the US have paid too little for too long and that has scared away a LOT of potential pilots. A correction in wages is coming and it is long overdue along with the new rest rules. The old ones were flat out dangerous. At my airline we had 8:30 minute overnights with a trip through customs and a 30 minute van ride each way. You then arrived at a hotel in Mexico with nothing to eat and the hotel restaurant was closed. It was abysmal.

I couldn't have said it better myself.

Quoting silentbob (Reply 206):
PSA just signed a new contract that is 10 years ( I believe) in length. You are not going to see airlines suddenly hand out big raises to pilots, especially as they are trying to hold down costs in order to make a profit on the deals with the major airlines. Those deals don't allow for significant increases in pay.

They will if they have to. Netjets signed a CBA in '05. The company was having trouble finding applicants willing to reside within the five base system. Management approached the pilot group and a new agreement was reached through IBB. It raised FO pay and opened 95 new bases immediately.
 
ual777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:52 am

Quoting JHwk (Reply 209):

It's totally possible! I know guys that were doing over 1,000 per year. In early 2011, most guys getting hired had well over 1500 total time and well over 100 multi. Instructing will give you what you put into it. If you take it seriously and aim to truly master your craft, you will have solid fundamentals that could very well save your life if things go to hell in a hand basket.
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OB1504
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:10 am

But who do you instruct when there's a pilot shortage?
 
ual777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:18 am

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 213):

Foreigners. There are thousands of Chinese, Indians, etc training in the US. I taught during the height of the recession and made it work.
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tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:36 am

Quoting JHwk (Reply 209):
Can an instructor really get 750+ hours a year?! I would think 400 would be optimistic.

I keep thinking the simple solution to the shortage is to just kill EAS.

You have two very good observations! Though I don't necessarily agree with one of them.

1. I really doubt that instructors can get that many hours in this down market for flying, unless they have some students well above the recession.

2. killing EAS would free up pilots for other route. That I agree with. However, it will not free up enough pilots to justify killing the service all together. (though ZK will probably fold this year and release its ~130 pilots to the market) EAS flying is REALLY needed in some markets.. but there are many places where EAS is just a novelty. Up in Alaska, many communities need the air service for food, places like SLN that is an hour from an airport with commercial service (ICT) does not need service.

Quoting ual777 (Reply 212):
It's totally possible! I know guys that were doing over 1,000 per year. In early 2011, most guys getting hired had well over 1500 total time and well over 100 multi. Instructing will give you what you put into it. If you take it seriously and aim to truly master your craft, you will have solid fundamentals that could very well save your life if things go to hell in a hand basket.

I don't know many instructors that did half of that in 2013. The market for students is really down at the moment, and by that I mean "serious" students who fly on a very regular basis.
 
tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:39 am

I HEARD SOME NEW NEWS WHILE AT THE AIRPORT TODAY IN MCI!!

Apparently, EV is losing pilots faster than they expected, and now (assuming the loss continues) will not have the pilots to cover the schedule. MCI is expecting 5-10 DAILY cancellations March-July for EV. From what I hear from the management team there, they cannot cancel the flights until under 12 hours till departure if they want to keep the flying.

Anyone know how this is going to roll? I am sure MCI is not the only one facing these kind of issues in the coming months.
 
ual777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:43 am

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 215):

You have to be willing to go to where the students are.

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 216):

Partially true. EV is facing very high attrition at the moment. That being said, there will be some crew cancellations at the beginning of the month but MCI doesn't have enough flying to cancel 5-10 flights per day.
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tyler81190
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:04 am

Quoting ual777 (Reply 217):
Partially true. EV is facing very high attrition at the moment. That being said, there will be some crew cancellations at the beginning of the month but MCI doesn't have enough flying to cancel 5-10 flights per day.

MCI Does... Unfortunately. In the summer season, on average, 5 EV to EWR, 8-10 EV to IAH, usually 5 EV to ORD, and usually 1 EV to DEN. CLE sees 2-3 EV per day, but that service will end altogether in June when CLE loses it's hub status.

so 5 cancellations per day isn't a whole lot on a total flight load basis in MCI which sees on average 46 departures a day. But in busy season, 250 stranded passengers is not good, assuming 5 flights cancel and all are at capacity.

Also, it isn't that different than when RP was canceling 3-5/day last year due to lack of crew, but they waited until departure time to cancel for crew.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:03 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 218):
so 5 cancellations per day isn't a whole lot on a total flight load basis in MCI which sees on average 46 departures a day. But in busy season, 250 stranded passengers is not good, assuming 5 flights cancel and all are at capacity.

Well, looking at it a different way, it's 10 percent of flights cancelled and, as you say, it's going to be difficult to reaccomodate passengers given the average load factors on the other flights.

The more interesting question is whether folks will book away from those carriers that use EV (UA, DL) to those that either don't have regionals (WN) or don't have regionals that yet have crew issues (AA). My sense is that UA is going to be hurt more by this phenomenon given that they have a lot of EV flights to places like MCI that have lots of options on other carriers. If EV cancels my DL* flight to AGS or GNV, that's fine, but WN can't get me to those places.
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norcal
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:16 pm

Quoting ual777 (Reply 205):
Gonna chime in here...

First 1500 hours is not some magically impossible flight time number. It's 1.5 to 2 years of flight instructing. If you go to a 4 year university it's less. We have all done it and it's a fabulous way to gain experience.

The real issue here is that the regional model has chocked the golden goose. Regionals in the US have paid too little for too long and that has scared away a LOT of potential pilots.

In the 90s, you wouldn't even get looked at for a regional with out at least 2,500 hours. This 250 hour thing is very much a product of the last decade when people did stop showing up. The airlines response was to lower the standard of hiring in order to plug the holes in their staffing. Back then regional pilots got paid roughly the same $20,000 a year starting out that they do now. However they were flying much smaller aircraft (less revenue generating potential) and each dollar earned went much further. Wages have since been frozen as the cost of everything went up and the aircraft became much larger (more revenue generating potential) and added first class (more revenue generating potential). Seasoned pilots stop showing up to regionals and elected to go work for corporate or other better paying opportunities or left the industry all together. Some of them might come back, if the pay is raised.

There is no shortage of pilots, only a shortage of pilots willing to work for slave wages. It's shocking how little it would cost to double a first officer's starting salary. On a 76 seat regional jet (the future of regionals), each passenger is paying about 30 cents an hour in wages for the first officer. In order to double that we are talking about adding another 30 cents per hour. On a 3 hour flight, that is less than $1 per ticket. No one will notice that. On a 50 seat jet, we are talking less than 50 cents per hour increase per passenger. Even if flights aren't full, the cost is still negligible.

Instead these CEOs are so focused on driving costs down that they are going to kill the golden goose. Their regional networks will collapse and the billions of dollars they've spent on all of these regional jets will be wasted as they are only good as paperweights. It is such a stupidly obvious solution to the problem, yet they are dragging their feet. They are clinging to the hope that the seemingly endless supply of pilots still exists. It doesn't, they destroyed it when they kept asking for more and more concessions.


The problem is so much worse than the general public can possibly imagine. Flights are being cancelled now because of a lack of pilots. That isn't how it is publicized because it is easier to blame it on bad weather. Yes weather does play a factor, it exposes the poor staffing when it hits. The system takes way longer to recover and more flights are cancelled than necessary because the staffing doesn't exist to cover flights. Of course since the airline doesn't have to buy you a hotel room if the cancellation is "weather related," it is much easier to blame it on a half truth then tell the full truth.
 
ual777
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:11 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 218):

EV has a crew base at MCI. There are about 60 CAs and 60 FOs. By comparison, the IAH base has over 400 CAs and 400 FOs. Canceling 10% of the flights due to crew is way above reality. Just giving hard facts.
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:17 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
They are clinging to the hope that the seemingly endless supply of pilots still exists. It doesn't, they destroyed it when they kept asking for more and more concessions.

Indeed. I had breakfast the other day at the restaruant at KASH, looking at an empty slab of ramp space that used to be lined with C172s operated by Daniel Webster College, training new pilots. Now, all gone. Getting yourself six figures into debt to get paid squat is just not on any more.
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Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:28 pm

From what I was reading on another forum, it's not the lack of qualified applicants that one regional is facing, but the lack of qualified applicants that can make it through training.
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norcal
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:43 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 223):
From what I was reading on another forum, it's not the lack of qualified applicants that one regional is facing, but the lack of qualified applicants that can make it through training.

That is true, regionals can only attract people they never would have hired before in order to fill classes. So even though some regionals are filling classes, many of the new hires don't make it through training.

The real solution for regionals is to raise pay or face extinction.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:11 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 224):
That is true, regionals can only attract people they never would have hired before in order to fill classes. So even though some regionals are filling classes, many of the new hires don't make it through training.

I wouldn't quite go that far. There are plenty of people in this world that can charm their way through an interview, only to flounder through training and eventually dropped/quit.

Conversely, there are those who interview terribly and don't get the job, but can run rings around the other applicants.

It's all about perspective, but unfortunately, a given company only has 20-40 minutes to get to know you.
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apodino
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 225):
I wouldn't quite go that far. There are plenty of people in this world that can charm their way through an interview, only to flounder through training and eventually dropped/quit.

Conversely, there are those who interview terribly and don't get the job, but can run rings around the other applicants.

It's all about perspective, but unfortunately, a given company only has 20-40 minutes to get to know you.

  

I have learned that over the years. Some people are just great at interviewing, but being a good interview does not mean you will be a good employee. Unfortunately, that is often learned after the hiring decisions have been made.
 
norcal
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:11 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 225):
I wouldn't quite go that far. There are plenty of people in this world that can charm their way through an interview, only to flounder through training and eventually dropped/quit.

Conversely, there are those who interview terribly and don't get the job, but can run rings around the other applicants.

It's all about perspective, but unfortunately, a given company only has 20-40 minutes to get to know you.

People with a history of multiple check ride failures are likely to continue to the trend. These are the type of people now being hired that wouldn't have been hired before.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:22 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 227):
People with a history of multiple check ride failures are likely to continue to the trend. These are the type of people now being hired that wouldn't have been hired before.

But that does not mean that they are bad pilots.
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planemaker
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:25 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
There is no shortage of pilots, only a shortage of pilots willing to work for slave wages. It's shocking how little it would cost to double a first officer's starting salary. On a 76 seat regional jet (the future of regionals), each passenger is paying about 30 cents an hour in wages for the first officer. In order to double that we are talking about adding another 30 cents per hour. On a 3 hour flight, that is less than $1 per ticket. No one will notice that. On a 50 seat jet, we are talking less than 50 cents per hour increase per passenger. Even if flights aren't full, the cost is still negligible.

I know that at a granular basis it seems as though the costs are negligible. But in aggregate they all add up to a significant total... and this seriously is a game of nickles and dimes for the "pencil pushers."
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JHwk
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:28 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 215):
Up in Alaska, many communities need the air service for food

Not to sound harsh, but it sounds like a State of Alaska problem.
 
FlyHossD
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:45 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
In the 90s, you wouldn't even get looked at for a regional with out at least 2,500 hours. This 250 hour thing is very much a product of the last decade when people did stop showing up. The airlines response was to lower the standard of hiring in order to plug the holes in their staffing. Back then regional pilots got paid roughly the same $20,000 a year starting out that they do now. However they were flying much smaller aircraft (less revenue generating potential) and each dollar earned went much further. Wages have since been frozen as the cost of everything went up and the aircraft became much larger (more revenue generating potential) and added first class (more revenue generating potential). Seasoned pilots stop showing up to regionals and elected to go work for corporate or other better paying opportunities or left the industry all together. Some of them might come back, if the pay is raised.

There is no shortage of pilots, only a shortage of pilots willing to work for slave wages. It's shocking how little it would cost to double a first officer's starting salary. On a 76 seat regional jet (the future of regionals), each passenger is paying about 30 cents an hour in wages for the first officer. In order to double that we are talking about adding another 30 cents per hour. On a 3 hour flight, that is less than $1 per ticket. No one will notice that. On a 50 seat jet, we are talking less than 50 cents per hour increase per passenger. Even if flights aren't full, the cost is still negligible.

Instead these CEOs are so focused on driving costs down that they are going to kill the golden goose. Their regional networks will collapse and the billions of dollars they've spent on all of these regional jets will be wasted as they are only good as paperweights. It is such a stupidly obvious solution to the problem, yet they are dragging their feet. They are clinging to the hope that the seemingly endless supply of pilots still exists. It doesn't, they destroyed it when they kept asking for more and more concessions.

The problem is so much worse than the general public can possibly imagine. Flights are being cancelled now because of a lack of pilots. That isn't how it is publicized because it is easier to blame it on bad weather. Yes weather does play a factor, it exposes the poor staffing when it hits. The system takes way longer to recover and more flights are cancelled than necessary because the staffing doesn't exist to cover flights. Of course since the airline doesn't have to buy you a hotel room if the cancellation is "weather related," it is much easier to blame it on a half truth then tell the full truth.

Excellent post, thank you. But wanting another 30 cents per passenger per hour will be criticized as greedy by some.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
planemaker
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:11 pm

Quoting FlyHossD (Reply 231):
But wanting another 30 cents per passenger per hour will be criticized as greedy by some.

I don't think that anyone would criticize wanting 30 cents per pax as greedy. However, the whole world economy is going through seismic shifts and the airline business is not unaffected. For a variety of reasons the industry has not (never?) been "rational" and it eventually has to cobble together a path through conflicting demands and hurdles. Squeezing costs are always going to be a fact of life... even at the 30 cent per pax level, unfortunately.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:23 pm

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2.../Airlines-face-empty-seats-cockpit

Not everyone is buying the projections of a dire pilot shortage. Katie Connell, a spokeswoman for Airlines for America, which represents the industry, says it’s overblown.

“Long-term projections ... are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty,” Connell said. “We expect the major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed, and are not expecting any shortage within the next few years.”



With a reduction in regional service... I think we'll be ok.

Quoting norcal (Reply 224):
The real solution for regionals is to raise pay or face extinction.

They're locked into money losing contracts. This will end with up-gauging and quite a few cities losing service as they cannot fill a 76 seater. There are too many RJ providers. When the number drops by two more, then we can talk.

Quoting norcal (Reply 224):
So even though some regionals are filling classes, many of the new hires don't make it through training.

I would be interested to know the rate of failures vs. prior years.

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
In the 90s, you wouldn't even get looked at for a regional with out at least 2,500 hours.

I'm confussed, as IIRC B6 was hiring at that level of hours in the 1990s.

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
There is no shortage of pilots, only a shortage of pilots willing to work for slave wages.

That we can agree to. If the shortage is really here, then salaries will have to jump to persuade students to go back to flight schools. There will be a delay as too many flight schools downsized or shut down...

Quoting norcal (Reply 220):
Instead these CEOs are so focused on driving costs down that they are going to kill the golden goose.

It is musical chairs for RJ vendors. They are bidding contracts where it is almost impossible to break even. The majors are only willing to fly RJs for a lower cost per flight... The CEOs were doing their job (price the product to keep the company going).

Lightsaber
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iowaman
Posts: 3864
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:31 pm

EAS Proposals for MCW (Mason City, Iowa) and FOD (Fort Dodge, Iowa) are due February 21st. It will be interesting to see what bid(s) are submitted.

The United States Department of Transportation published on January 31st a Request for Proposals for Airline Service for Mason City and Fort Dodge. Proposals are due February 21st.

Source: http://www.facebook.com/FlyMCW
 
KD5MDK
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:51 pm

So at this point are we looking at ZK winding up operations in June or so?
Who will be the next regional airline to fold, and will they reduce capacity enough that the rest of the regionals can survive?
 
DualQual
Posts: 710
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:03 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 228):
But that does not mean that they are bad pilots.

What's a check ride checking? Your ability to manage the flight (line checks), your mastery of emergency procedures. Good pilots can fail a check ride. Bad pilot pass them. Busting multiple check rides means you aren't doing the correct things day to day, aren't keeping up with your proficiency or studying for the weird/non daily stuff, or can't hack it when things break and you still need to get on the ground. Anybody can do this job when the airplane is working, the weather is nice, and there is no terrain. Check rides should be evaluating your abilities to manage and contend with the times when this is not the case. Good pilots can deal with this and don't fail multiple times.
There's no known cure for stupid
 
norcal
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:03 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 229):
I know that at a granular basis it seems as though the costs are negligible. But in aggregate they all add up to a significant total... and this seriously is a game of nickles and dimes for the "pencil pushers."

It really isn't, especially considering how much mainline carriers rely on regionals to feed their networks. That is a lot of revenue to be placed at risk. There is also the substantial investment worth billions of dollars in the form of large regional jets being placed at risk.

All to save 30 cents an hour?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 233):
With a reduction in regional service... I think we'll be ok.

I don't think anyone is arguing that mainlines will be affected, just the regional airlines.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 233):
I would be interested to know the rate of failures vs. prior years.

Numbers like that aren't publicly available, however in talking to some friends who are recruiters and instructors I can say that the standards have definitely gone down. They are scrapping the bottom of the barrel for recruits.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 233):
They're locked into money losing contracts. This will end with up-gauging and quite a few cities losing service as they cannot fill a 76 seater.

Except the mainline partners are demanding razor thin margins on the new 76 seat flying. Regional carriers are still falling over themselves to try and bid on it and refleet before the music stops and they are left with 50 seaters. Unfortunately some carriers are biting off more than they can chew. Case in point RAH, keep a very close eye on them in the coming months. They are at the breaking point with their staffing, the new hire classes are relatively full but they are losing people faster than they can replace them. Their Q-400 operation is already a disaster.
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:27 pm

Quoting DualQual (Reply 236):
What's a check ride checking? Your ability to manage the flight (line checks), your mastery of emergency procedures. Good pilots can fail a check ride. Bad pilot pass them. Busting multiple check rides means you aren't doing the correct things day to day, aren't keeping up with your proficiency or studying for the weird/non daily stuff, or can't hack it when things break and you still need to get on the ground. Anybody can do this job when the airplane is working, the weather is nice, and there is no terrain. Check rides should be evaluating your abilities to manage and contend with the times when this is not the case. Good pilots can deal with this and don't fail multiple times.

Please can the drama. Have you considered that one can fail a checkride with a vindictive check airman by simply not completing a turn within +/- 5 degrees of heading when using only a magnetic compass?
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Mir
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:31 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 229):
But in aggregate they all add up to a significant total... and this seriously is a game of nickles and dimes for the "pencil pushers."

The nickels and dimes will seem insignificant next to the cost of having to deal with cancellations due to crew shortages, and the subsequent lost business from passengers who can't trust that the airline can staff their flights reliably. All it requires on the part of the pencil pushers is a little forward thinking (and we're not talking long now, maybe six months to a year down the road).

Quoting DualQual (Reply 236):
What's a check ride checking? Your ability to manage the flight (line checks), your mastery of emergency procedures. Good pilots can fail a check ride. Bad pilot pass them. Busting multiple check rides means you aren't doing the correct things day to day, aren't keeping up with your proficiency or studying for the weird/non daily stuff, or can't hack it when things break and you still need to get on the ground.

Or it means that the examiner is being an ass. If checkrides were more standardized I'd buy the argument, but outside of the airline or corporate training environment there are huge differences between taking a check with one examiner as opposed to another. There are those who just want the bare minimum and nothing more, and then there are those who seem to think that the objective of the check is to show the applicant how much better a pilot the examiner is.

If you get to an airline environment and are still failing checks, then that's more of an issue. But I wouldn't look at a few failures during primary training as a black mark.

-Mir
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DualQual
Posts: 710
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:48 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 238):

You'll notice I acknowledge that. Good pilots can fail a check ride. Good pilots don't fail multiple check rides.
There's no known cure for stupid
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:50 pm

Quoting DualQual (Reply 240):
Good pilots don't fail multiple check rides.

Two strikes and you're out? Harsh.
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KBJCpilot
Posts: 210
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sat Feb 08, 2014 1:01 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 193):
Those are the short term triggers, but huge training costs followed by years of low pay have scared off many of the student pilots for a while now. No sane parent is going to advise a child to go down that path.

I'm one of those parents who have co-signed student loans at a 4-year university for my son. But, he also has taken it upon himself to find a full-time job that he uses to help pay for his flying. He has decided to live at home to save on housing expenses, he doesn't go out on the weekends, doesn't spend more than he has to, and is managing to do OK so far.

He is about $5,000 in debt through his 2nd year in university (including all tuition for the first two years) and is working on his Instrument rating right now. His plan is to graduate in 2 years with his PPL, Inst, Multi, and CFI and about 350 hours under his belt. He'll continue to work as well as instruct until he has the 1,200 hours required as well as his ATP and CFII. As we live in the DEN area he can live at home as long as he needs to (no use renting a crash pad) and I will contiune to help him with the basic necessities until he lands his first gig with OO or UA or whomever. I figure the travel benefits will make up for the sacrifices I am making for him and will allow him to worry about instructing, working on his next rating, etc.

I'm hoping that with the contacts he is making at his university (Metro State) and with his current job (OO) he will get a break and land a job soon after he reaches that magical hour mark. Until then I will sacrifice to help him out and hope he makes it in a few years.
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planemaker
Posts: 5411
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:27 am

Quoting norcal (Reply 237):
It really isn't, especially considering how much mainline carriers rely on regionals to feed their networks. That is a lot of revenue to be placed at risk. There is also the substantial investment worth billions of dollars in the form of large regional jets being placed at risk.

All to save 30 cents an hour?

Well, first, he said "30 cents per passenger per hour". Sure, at a granular level that still seems insignificant but it isn't at an operational level.

Second, welcome to capitalism... or our version of it which is a wee bit different than Adam Smiths' version.  

There is quite a bit of doom and gloom prognosticating but in the end there won't be. The majors are not worried... hell, look at the run they've had with Chap. 11s, mergers, etc. It certainly might not be pretty but it will all work out in the end.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
tyler81190
Posts: 720
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:04 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 219):
Well, looking at it a different way, it's 10 percent of flights cancelled and, as you say, it's going to be difficult to reaccomodate passengers given the average load factors on the other flights.

The more interesting question is whether folks will book away from those carriers that use EV (UA, DL) to those that either don't have regionals (WN) or don't have regionals that yet have crew issues (AA). My sense is that UA is going to be hurt more by this phenomenon given that they have a lot of EV flights to places like MCI that have lots of options on other carriers. If EV cancels my DL* flight to AGS or GNV, that's fine, but WN can't get me to those places.

Well, when RP was canceling 3-5 a day due to lack of crew, the "regulars" would always show up WAY early, knowing the flight would have issues, and some would intentionally book MCI-IAH-DEN if needed.

Quoting ual777 (Reply 221):
EV has a crew base at MCI. There are about 60 CAs and 60 FOs. By comparison, the IAH base has over 400 CAs and 400 FOs. Canceling 10% of the flights due to crew is way above reality. Just giving hard facts.

That is a fact... But a crew base does nothing if EV is deadheading 10 crew members a day out of MCI to fly planes from other cities... 10 is an arbitrary number, but one day, EV oversold a flight by 11 to deadhead crew members out of MCI as 4 other flights (EV) were canceling due to lack of crew... Explain the logic there?

Quoting JHwk (Reply 230):
Not to sound harsh, but it sounds like a State of Alaska problem.

Agreed, but it does show that the EAS program helps... at least in one place.
 
planemaker
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Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:29 pm

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 244):
Agreed, but it does show that the EAS program helps... at least in one place.

I'm sure that if I lived in a town with EAS, and actually used it, that I would also say that it "helps."   But why should others subsidize my air travel?
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 818
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RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:35 pm

Who is most in trouble here after ZK?
 
oosnowrat
Posts: 186
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:55 pm

RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sun Feb 09, 2014 12:29 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 245):

Especially when Alaska is one of the few states that could afford to run its own EAS program.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sun Feb 09, 2014 2:44 am

Quoting oosnowrat (Reply 247):
Especially when Alaska is one of the few states that could afford to run its own EAS program.

So true, so true!!   EAS is an anarchism from 35 years ago.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14216
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: Pilot Shortage Causing EAS Flight Cancellations

Sun Feb 09, 2014 2:45 am

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 244):
Well, when RP was canceling 3-5 a day due to lack of crew, the "regulars" would always show up WAY early, knowing the flight would have issues, and some would intentionally book MCI-IAH-DEN if needed.

That's concerning. Most folks who travel enough to be "regulars" have time too valuable to be showing up very early for long. I'm not particularly loyal to UA (they are by far the smallest legacy in my home market), but I wouldn't mess around with that for long before switching carriers.
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