Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:18 am

Aviation Week has an article about Airbus developing a twin larger than the 777x. Other details from the article:

>The initial trade studies focused on an extremely large twinjet aimed intriguingly at the 470-seat sector

>manufacturer's product development work say the New Long Range (NLR) project is attracting growing interest again as Airbus seeks a response to the 777X.

>Richard Aboulafia. “It's clear they need to do something in that segment,” he says. “A further stretch beyond the A350-1000, even if technically feasible, wouldn't come close to the 777-9X in capabilities, and the A380 remains a niche machine, for Emirates. By aiming one notch above the 777-9X, they'd seize the high ground in terms of twinjet capabilities, and the past 30 years clearly tells us that's an enviable spot.”

>Aboulafia says a new large Airbus twin could be launched in 2018, “after spending ramps down on the A350XWB series and the A320neo, and arrive as early as 2023.” But he adds that “if Airbus instead diverts engineering and financial resources to develop a futile A380 upgrade, or if it keeps losing money on each A380 it sells, then Boeing will enjoy a long and profitable exclusive franchise in the large twin market.”
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/AW_01_27_2014_p29-657272.xml&p=1

Do you think this is viable? If this becomes the plan do you see the plan for the A380 or the A350-1100 changing? Timing? I definitely see this as a serious challenge to the 777x if Airbus goes through with it.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10397
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:27 am

So a new narrow body is not in the cards after the A350XXX ramps down?
If true, it will be interesting to see the differences between Boeing's 777 and 748i versus Airbis A380 and this new large twin in terms of taking orders away from each other or overlapping in segments.

Regardless of the money Boeing spent on the 748i, it is a derivative and funds were saved in certification, if Airbus does not stretch / expand the A350 but goes clean sheet, it may as well design a product to directly compete with the A380 which will be decades old by the time this a/c comes to market with much older technology.
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:46 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
If this becomes the plan do you see the plan for the A380 or the A350-1100 changing?

Glad I'm no longer the only person suggesting an 'A360,' tortugamon!

In essence, the A350 fuselage just 'won't cut it' because it's too narrow. It's pretty clear that Boeing are planning thinner fuselage linings for the 777Xs, so that they can if necessary accommodate 10-across seating. As far as I know, neither the A350 fuselage nor any other existing Boeing type could manage this in a long-haul role.

So a new larger - particularly wider - type appears to be Airbus's best bet. And, if they start now, they'll have plenty of time to design it to compete directly with the 777Xs - and very possibly carry yet more people. While still going full blast on the A359 and the A3510.

[Edited 2014-01-27 03:55:17]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
ap305
Posts: 1501
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2000 4:03 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:54 am

Based on what Bregier has been saying, I would guess that pigs would fly before this happens... .
Racing, competing, is in my blood. It's part of me, it's part of my life; I've been doing it all my life. And it stands up before anything else- Ayrton Senna
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:58 am

Quoting par13del (Reply 1):
if Airbus does not stretch / expand the A350 but goes clean sheet, it may as well design a product to directly compete with the A380 which will be decades old by the time this a/c comes to market with much older technology

The article says that this could be in service as early as 2023.

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 2):
Glad I'm no longer the only person suggesting an 'A360,' tortugamon!

Right you are Nav, you have been suggesting this for for many months. Now you have company.  


tortugamon
 
Aither
Posts: 1301
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:03 pm

The size of the market for aircraft between 400 and 500 seats is still unclear so we should not be so sure Airbus need to launch a product in that segment.
Never trust the obvious
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19285
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:13 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 2):
It's pretty clear that Boeing are planning thinner fuselage linings for the 777Xs, so that they can if necessary accommodate 10-across seating.

Today's 777 seats 10-across. Nobody has to wait for the 77X to get 10-across.   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:17 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
Do you think this is viable?

Airbus and Boeing do a lot of concept studies and many of them never see daylight. The NLR was done together with the Universities of Aachen so perhaps it was just some sort of school project.

Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier recently said we should not expect any brand-new developments in the next 10 years (or even more).

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 2):
nor any other existing Boeing type could manage this in a long-haul role.

The 777-300ER already does.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 4):
The article says that this could be in service as early as 2023.

As there won't be any clean-sheet programs in the next 10 years, it sounds more like a formal launch in 2023 with EIS just before 2030.

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
A further stretch beyond the A350-1000, even if technically feasible, wouldn't come close to the 777-9X in capabilities

As we have discussed before, a further A350 stretch might just do fine (787-10 look-alike). One does not need to address every product to maintain a market share of 50%.

Quoting Aither (Reply 5):
The size of the market for aircraft between 400 and 500 seats is still unclear so we should not be so sure Airbus need to launch a product in that segment.

The 400+ seat routes are expected to double by 2020.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1747
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:40 pm

What engines will it use?

It is clear to me just a marketing ploy to attempt to creative uncertainty in the minds of some prospective 777X
customers. If I am correct, it is further evidence of the positioning in the market problem that, all but the 359 has.

A twin of this size will eventually appear, but IMO it will be a BWB.

Ruscoe
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
What engines will it use?

It's a case study, nothing has been selected yet. They will of course use whatever there is available in the 2020s.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...k-to-replace-trents-on-future-jets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...replace-trents-on-future-jets.html

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
It is clear to me just a marketing ploy to attempt to creative uncertainty in the minds of some prospective 777X
customers.

The study was actually concluded in 2012 (and started even earlier), long before the 777X was launched.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5649
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:59 pm

There is no doubt that Airbus can do this. The question is, should they? There needs to be some acknowledgement on both sides that each needs to make a return on investment for the industry to stay healthy. Remember that the DC-10 and L-1011 essentially drove both manufacturers out of the airliner business; and now, with only two manufacturers left, they do not need to drive each other into bankruptcy. One thing is guaranteed; if Airbus does build this it will kill off any possibility of the A380 ever making money, and will probably kill it off completely. Yes, it will undoubtedly severely hurt the 777X, and hence Boeing, but Boeing will probably answer by doing the NSA, which will force Airbus to follow suit, as they cannot afford to abandon the narrowbody market. I think Bregier has the right approach, and will prevail. The costs of development are just simply to high for both manufacturers to immediately match each other, tit for tat. As technology develops there are always improvements that can be done, but it is much better to wait until the previous generation has made a decent ROI before plunging into a new project. And since Boeing and Airbus are both investing in reengining the narrowbodies, it makes sense to wait at least 10 years before designing new narrowbodies. That also gives more time for more new developments, which will lead to better planes when they do emerge. For the next 10 years I see Airbus with a slight advantage in narrowbodies (I see the NEO having a slight advantage over the MAX), and Boeing having a slight advantage in widebodies. But Airbus can perhaps cut that advantage by doing the A330NEO, which may be able to take a bit of the lower end away from the 788, especially if they can price it lower. I do not see either the A380 or the 748i doing much at all, but the 748F may do well if the freight market improves. But if Airbus forces the issue by spending $15-20 billion on a plane to kill off the 777X they may well destroy the profitability of both manufacturers.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
NAV20
Posts: 8453
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 3:25 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:09 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 6):
Nobody has to wait for the 77X to get 10-across.

God - one has to be careful what one says......   Or make your posts longer, to cover every possibility........

Quite clear, scrimbl, that Boeing are aiming the 777Xs at 'ultra-long-haul.' They actually published articles saying that they're hoping to gain some elbow-room by increasing interior fuselage width, reducing aisle width (per row  ) and increasing the 'effective' seat-width. Fractions of inches apparently count..........
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:16 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 11):
Quite clear, scrimbl, that Boeing are aiming the 777Xs at 'ultra-long-haul.'

Only the 777-8 will have ultra long-haul range. The 777-9 has similar range to the B787/A350/A380 (all just above 8000nm) which I do not see as ULH airplanes.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
it is further evidence of the positioning in the market problem that, all but the 359 has.

I believe you forgot to mention the A350-1000.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:39 pm

Would love to see what this thing looks like! 85M Length? 80M span?

I think this is another important sentence from the article:

"An NLR project would also likely end any A380 reengining effort, which is seen internally as extremely challenging in terms of engine/wing integration and aerodynamics."

I wonder if this is because likely engine replacements are bigger and therefore more difficult to incorporate?

It sounds like an NLR would cease a the A380 re-engine and the A350 double stretch.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
As we have discussed before, a further A350 stretch might just do fine (787-10 look-alike).

It was a quote from the article, not me. But to be fair he did say something about it not matching 779 capabilities which I think is a fair statement unless Airbus is looking for a more complicated (expensive) fix.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
It is clear to me just a marketing ploy to attempt to creative uncertainty in the minds of some prospective 777X customers.

An interesting thought but I don't think so. I don't think anybody reasonably thinks this will enter service for another 10 years (despite the 2023 claim) and I don't think too many airlines are going to be buying the 777x for delivery 10 years from now (EK excepted). Airlines ordering the 777x have a need before that and won't be wiling to wait. I guess I could buy the argument that they may temper the size of their orders until they learn more but it is tough to swallow.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
One thing is guaranteed; if Airbus does build this it will kill off any possibility of the A380 ever making money, and will probably kill it off completely.

And the A350-1100 for that matter. Not a cheap program in terms of implications on other family members.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
I do not see either the A380 or the 748i doing much at all, but the 748F may do well if the freight market improves.

I am slowly changing my mind on this. A decade from now there will be over 6,000 787s, A330s, A350s, and 777s in service around the globe or about 3 times as many as there are now. Belly cargo is going to get cheaper and cheaper and its going to reach a point where one of two things happen: There is excess capacity of belly cargo and dedicated freighters aren't necessary or the increase in supply drops prices so far that ocean freight makes less sense and volumes increase rapidly. If you believe the first then the 747-8F doesn't have a rosy future. We have a long way to go for the second.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
But if Airbus forces the issue by spending $15-20 billion on a plane to kill off the 777X they may well destroy the profitability of both manufacturers.

Its hard to picture Boeing spending much more than $7B on the 777x. If you assume 20% margins and an average selling price of $190 Million (50% off list) then producing 200 units will make them back their investment. I don't see this new program preventing Boeing from selling 400 777Xs let alone 200.

tortugamon
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:45 pm

Sounds childish ,I appreciate but reading the Aviation week article all I is see a load of hot air!

No way is Airbus going to launch another massive multi billion $, clean sheet , conventional wing and tube aircraft just to cover a warmed over 779.Who on earlth would do that in their right minds?

The A359 and 3510 are doing just fine and have a long way to go in any case. Even the 388 is selling (abeit to one customer) - but they are all sales. Just how much capacity do people think there is out there? 150 388's for EK and they (to quote) would have taken more if they had the space.Add a similar amount of 779's and you can see just how much traffic they are going to suck out of the global market. ( and I have not even included the 3510).Most competing airlines are reducing capacity not increasing!

No , not a chance in hell.Yes we will probably see a re engined 388 and with an extra 18" seat across. If (if ) the 389 is too much plane (for ever) then you will see GenX and T1000 TENs put onto the 388NEO (with BW's etc on the wing). It will remain the lowest cost P Pax aircraft for those that can fill them.

I am sure when the 388 is long in the tooth and the same for the 779 then yes both A&B will bring out some sort of 450 seater BWB with brand new (GTF?) engines.But not for a very long while!
 
tim73
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:03 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:16 pm

Would a larger twin of 500-600 paxs take as much space as A380 anyway because of the huge fans needed? The power needed per engine would be really pushing it, requiring new materials etc etc? With so high powered engines, the maintenance costs could skyrocket. Would be like supertrimmed Formula-1 car engine...

[Edited 2014-01-27 06:17:59]
 
jayunited
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:02 pm

I thought the A350 program was positioned to take on both the 787 and the 777 and in fact IIRC last year Airbus executives touted the A350 as the 777 killer; but all of this was before Boeing officially launched the 777-8/9X program. Is this article suggesting that perhaps behind closed doors that Airbus executives are now concerned that the A35J may not be the 777 killer they once thought it would be and now they need to come up with yet another all new widebody aircraft that can take on Boeings 777-9?

Boeing knocked it out of the park with the 773ER and who knows lightening may strike twice for Boeing with the 777-8/9 (it was one of the most successful launches in history) so my question is how did the A35J miss the mark? Going into this process as Boeing was mulling over a decision on what to do with the 777 program Airbus seemed very confident that the A35J was their answer to Boeings 777 program which included the past, present and future ( 777X). There were many articles and public statements from Airbus executives touting the A35J as being better than the current 773ER and the then planned but not yet launched 777-9X. They were every confident that they would replace Boeing as the dominate player in the widebody twin engine market. So if Airbus does in fact respond by developing yet another all new wide body that would be a public admission that the A35J in a way miss the mark which was to beat Boeing at their own game and dominate the widebody twin engine market.

Another question I have is; is the A37J program so far gone that is it now to late for Airbus to pump the brakes and retool or reengineer that program so that it can better compete with Boeings 777-9 or would that option be more expensive than developing an all new aircraft?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27306
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:10 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 12):
Only the 777-8 will have ultra long-haul range. The 777-9 has similar range to the B787/A350/A380 (all just above 8000nm) which I do not see as ULH airplanes.

All are C-Market planes using Boeing's criteria and I have to say that 14+ hours is pretty ultra long haul to my bum.  
Quoting jayunited (Reply 16):
I thought the A350 program was positioned to take on both the 787 and the 777...

It is, but more at 777's flying in 9-abreast configuration in Economy and that is becoming less common as 10-abreast improves yields so more and more airlines are moving to it.
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1556
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 16):
how did the A35J miss the mark?

It did not. It now owns the 773ER space and that forced Boeing to go bigger with what looks like a successful 77X project (that will KO the 748 in passing). Now it is Airbus' turn to respond with something between A3510 and A388 (if they think there is a big enough market in that space to share with Boeing).

FWIW all I expect is a simple stretch of the 3510 initially and, if that works, a follow-on LR version, like Boeing did with the 773 and later the 773ER,
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:16 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 13):
But to be fair he did say something about it not matching 779 capabilities which I think is a fair statement unless Airbus is looking for a more complicated (expensive) fix.

The point is that any further A350 stretch does not have to match 779 capabilities in order to be competitive. Just look at the 787-10.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 13):
Its hard to picture Boeing spending much more than $7B on the 777x.

Boeing claims the 777X is a $10 billion investment.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
All are C-Market planes using Boeing's criteria and I have to say that 14+ hours is pretty ultra long haul to my bum.

Those are design ranges, you have to cut off 10 to 15% to get real range figures.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10197
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:18 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 12):
Only the 777-8 will have ultra long-haul range. The 777-9 has similar range to the B787/A350/A380 (all just above 8000nm) which I do not see as ULH airplanes.

8,000nm certainly is ULH by every standard that I've seen. Anything over 15 hours should be considered ULH. The 787/A350/A380 all have similar range as the A345 (I'm not talking about a 100 seat A345), so if the A345 is an ULH aircraft, then all of those others sure should be.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:27 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
The 787/A350/A380 all have similar range as the A345

  

> A340-500: 9000nm
> A350-900: 8200nm
> A350-1000: 8400nm
> A380-800: 8500nm
> B787-8/9: 8000nm (9-abreast)
> B777-9: 8200nm
> B777-8: 9300nm

And beware these are design ranges. An A350 is more a 7000nm range airplane.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 18):
Quoting jayunited (Reply 16):
how did the A35J miss the mark?

It did not. It now owns the 773ER space and that forced Boeing to go bigger with what looks like a successful 77X project (that will KO the 748 in passing). Now it is Airbus' turn to respond with something between A3510 and A388 (if they think there is a big enough market in that space to share with Boeing).

Okay but Airbus had that opportunity the A350 program was a clean sheet design. So now my question is did Airbus purposely hold back the A35J in terms or performance and capacity to try and coax potential customers into the A380? I ask this question because Boeings response to the A380 was the 747-8i and its clear that a lot of airlines are not interested in the 747-8i. Many airlines have either chosen the A380 or the 773ER instead. So did Airbus see the lack of sales with the 747-8i as an opening to perhaps gather more sales for their A380 but in order to do that they needed to reign in the A35J and in so doing failed to realize that they left Boeing with a golden opportunity to position the 777-9x right in between the A35J and their A380?

So did Airbus in an attempt to try and boost A380 sales to airlines around the world make a mistake in leaving such a large gap between these two planes because while you believe that it is now Airbus's time to respond the truth is Airbus had their time to respond while they were developing the A350 program and yet they decided against it which left the door wide open for Boeing to step into.
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1556
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:40 pm

Quoting jayunited (Reply 22):
Airbus had their time to respond while they were developing the A350 program and yet they decided against it which left the door wide open for Boeing to step into.

I think their main intent for the A350 was to replace their existing range from A332 to A346. This appears to be working well at the top end but not the bottom end until they resolve the A333neo vs. A358 stretch debate.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4416
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:44 pm

While I realize that great circle doesn't tell one everything as regards to aircraft range, it does tell a lot. 8000 nautical miles is about 74% of a meridian, or half the earth's circumference. There are not all that many major population centers that far from one another. Which is not to say none.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:52 pm

That Airbus would build an airplane to match the 777X is not surprising However!! the 777X is getting pretty close to the maximum ramp space to even Park an airplane at any USA airport. I guess Airbus is going to blunder ahead and build a Twin engine airplane that will require it's OWN special gate facilitues like the A380 does?? I might not see the "big picture" but Bigger is REALLY necessary?? Whare is it you CAN'T get to right NOW and What City pairs have to be connected that arean't already connected?? This airplane would be a stupid IDEA!!
Both Boeing and Airbus should concentrate on fixing the shortfalls in their Present designs because Believe me, there Are shortfalls in ANY design.
They shoud First Not have Exclusive engine deals and let the engine airframe combintions be targeted to the mission the airline chooses to FLY! .
Build in the maximum passenger comfort into the profitability the airlines can SELL.
Build in redundancy that would Not render 5 of 10 lavs in the cabin to be inop due to a single fault at the tank or fron a lousy Sensor.
Establish and agree upon a seat width where cabin Equipment MFG, can optimize a cabin with equipment.
Agree upon and Develop a common Pylon to accept ANY engine in the thrust class for that particular airplane.
I could go on and On though?? So could any of YOU!
Build an airliner with as FEW system comprimises as is humanly possible. And BOTH Airbus and BOEING would benefit from that because Airbus can build some Rube Goldbers contraptions into major systems (the LGCIU) that aren't woth a Dollar in Counterfit currency!!
And Boeing could do less Star wars technology transfers to make an airplane Look a LOT LESS like a large F15 fighter!
At some point they'll install Targeting Radar and just leave off the weapons!!
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:11 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 14):
Who on earlth would do that in their right minds?

If the 779 sells 200 more units in the next three years would you still feel that way? Is there a certain amount of 779 success that you think Airbus will be comfortable with and if they should not be willing to launch a clean sheet large twin next decade what is the response other than the A380 re-engine that you mention?

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 18):
It now owns the 773ER space and that forced Boeing to go bigger with what looks like a successful 77X project (that will KO the 748 in passing).

This is a popular concept. The A351 is the same length as the 77W but for 10 abreast operators (the majority of recent deliveries and future orders) the A351 is a step down in size. I see the A351 'owning' what was the 9 abreast 77W market but the majority of the future 77W replacement market appears larger.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
Boeing claims the 777X is a $10 billion investment.

Ok, so rough break even is closer to 265.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 23):
I think their main intent for the A350 was to replace their existing range from A332 to A346. This appears to be working well at the top end but not the bottom end until they resolve the A333neo vs. A358 stretch debate.

I think if Airbus had it to do over again they would have aimed a little larger than they did. Its hard to argue with the A359 positioning but the other two models probably could have used more capacity in hindsight. Then again if the A351 was much bigger then Boeing would have surely chosen a different strategy as well.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 25):
What City pairs have to be connected that arean't already connected?

This new twin appears to be about capacity and seat economics not range.

tortugamon
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:16 pm

Did going bigger than the Boeing 747 help Airbus before?

Why would going bigger than 777 help now? It's not about who is biggest.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27306
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:31 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 27):
Did going bigger than the Boeing 747 help Airbus before?

It won them pretty much the entire VLA market.
 
User avatar
BoeingVista
Posts: 2060
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:54 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:45 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 27):
Did going bigger than the Boeing 747 help Airbus before?

Yup it did actually.

But no, this NLR is a thought bubble it will never fly, I certainly hope not anyway we have to progress beyond the tube and wing concept into lifting bodies at some point.
BV
 
incitatus
Posts: 3380
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 4:55 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
It won them pretty much the entire VLA market.

Did that help Airbus?  

If this airplane ever becomes reality, it will be known as "L'A380 Killer".

What would have been the outcome of the A380 program if Airbus had gone for a super-sized 10-abreast twin? One similar in size to a 777-9X, with useful floor space maximized and mast galleys, rest areas and lavs either above or below the main deck? More orders but less cool.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
User avatar
PW100
Posts: 4123
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 9:17 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:02 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
Those are design ranges, you have to cut off 10 to 15% to get real range figures.

And that is with zero ( 0 ) cargo. All these planes have quite some belly space. When that is (only partially) filled up with any meaningfull cargo, you'd have to cut off another 10 - 20% to get real real range figures.

PW100
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
Aither
Posts: 1301
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:03 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):
The 400+ seat routes are expected to double by 2020.

That would still be 2 times not much.

If you fly to ICN from let say LAX, you really need something big like the A380. Now if you fly to the second biggest city in Korea, you need something significantly smaller. There is no "upper middle market". The same applies to many markets in the world.
Never trust the obvious
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1747
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:03 pm

This all comes about because Airbus positioned the 350 incorrectly from the beginning.

Firstly they tried to cover too much territory.

This resulted in a Boeing being able to respond at the top end, with a 777 derivative, and at the other end an aircraft which is too heavy to be a serious threat to the 787. In the sweet spot is the 359 which I predict will be very successful, but come under increasing pressure from the 78-10 as time goes on.

Secondly they got the fuselage diameter wrong.

Why build a fuselage which is wider than the competition if it can't realistically handle another seat width.. No matter how efficient the fuselage it will have more weight and drag than could have been.
Why build a fuselage which is too wide for the bottom end of the market and not wide enough for the top.


So maybe the way forward for Airbus, is to drop the 358 and make the 350-1000 fuselage diameter just wide enough to handle 10 abreast . Such an aircraft would give the 777X a run for it's money, and be based on 350 technology to save cost and time. I admit to not knowing how difficult that would be, but it can't be a big challenge because Boeing did offer a wider 737 fuselage to Southwest, and also was forced to widen the fuselage of the original 707 concept.

Ruscoe
 
Mortyman
Posts: 5879
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:26 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:30 pm

 http://www.flightglobal.com/airspace/media/airbusconceptplane/emptys/97437/airbus-concept-plane.jpg
 
Lexy
Posts: 1492
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:05 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:41 pm

Build a Long Range NARROWBODY aircraft that is cheap to operate for crying out loud. Why does everything have to carry a small city these days?
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:02 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 32):
If you fly to ICN from let say LAX, you really need something big like the A380. Now if you fly to the second biggest city in Korea, you need something significantly smaller.

When you funnel a country of 50 Million people through one airport (ICN) en route to LAX you need an A380. When you are an American airline and you have about 20 airports with direct flights to Asian airports your average flight size is a lot smaller.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 33):
admit to not knowing how difficult that would be

Several Billion $ and a lack of family commonality is a high price to pay. Airbus is trying to market a more comfortable product which they seem to be having mixed success with (SQ for one). I believe they thought most 787 operators would have been 8 abreast when they launched the A350.

tortugamon
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:05 pm

Reply 26.
Is there a certain amount of 779 success that you think Airbus will be comfortable with.

As I know you know, it is not of course about (business) 'comfort' it is about cold hard cash - profits to be specific and IMHO am not sure the case has been made that it is there.

We all know that huge orders by EK for the A380 does not a success make. Well I would suggest that the same applies to this 400 seater too (and it's orders to date)
I see 'other' airlines downsizing not upsizing in capacity terms at the moment. Even Boeing talk about the long thin PtoP routes. Ok just my view I know,but perhaps I am blind to the merits of the 779.Good plane - yes,but a market breaker - the jury is still well out at this stage.
But Reply 34. Which is a hybrid BWB. Whatever comes next will have to be, as illustrated, a whole leap ahead of where we are now, of that I feel certain.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7184
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:07 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
It is clear to me just a marketing ploy to attempt to creative uncertainty in the minds of some prospective 777X
customers.

Huh? It substantially pre-dated the 777X

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
If I am correct, it is further evidence of the positioning in the market problem that, all but the 359 has

I'd love to know what market positioning problem the A350-1000 has ....

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 13):
Would love to see what this thing looks like! 85M Length? 80M span?

For 470 seats it almost certainly has to be longer than 80m if it's still a 10-abreast aircraft.

Still, if they're going to breach 80m for a twin, they may as well for the A380 too  
Quoting airbazar (Reply 20):
8,000nm certainly is ULH by every standard that I've seen

I think the point is that the 777X doesn't have meaningfully more range than the 777-200LR and 777-300ER, so some of us are struggling to see the point NAV20 is making. Boeing have move the 777 up in terms of capacity, not range

Quoting jayunited (Reply 22):
So now my question is did Airbus purposely hold back the A35J in terms or performance and capacity to try and coax potential customers into the A380?

I think they held back the capacity and performance because that's where the operating cost optima was seen to be....

Rgds
 
airbazar
Posts: 10197
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:09 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 21):
> A340-500: 9000nm
> A350-900: 8200nm
> A350-1000: 8400nm
> A380-800: 8500nm
> B787-8/9: 8000nm (9-abreast)
> B777-9: 8200nm
> B777-8: 9300nm

And beware these are design ranges. An A350 is more a 7000nm range airplane.

Those are marketing ranges. I'd like to see how far and with how much payload an A345 with ~250 seats could go. I'm guessing significantly less than 8,000nm.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27306
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 27):
Did going bigger than the Boeing 747 help Airbus before?
Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
It won them pretty much the entire VLA market.
Quoting incitatus (Reply 30):
Did that help Airbus?  

It not only ended Boeing's dominance in the VLA market, but effectively knocked them completely out of it.

And as I am very confident that each of those 300+ A380-800 sales would have instead been a 747 or a 777, Airbus successfully denied Boeing tens of billions in potential revenues.

They also forced Boeing to spend billions of dollars and significant engineering resources on a failed response - first Sonic Cruise and then the 747-8 - when that money and time could instead have been applied to the NSA (Y1) and NLA (Y3), putting Boeing in a stronger competitive position against the A320neo and A350 then they are now with the 737 MAX and 777X.

So yes, I think it really did help Airbus.

[Edited 2014-01-27 10:34:08]
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:48 pm

Once engines for it are available, I expect a twin sibbling of the A380 - initially with lower range most likely. Ugly but CASM.
 
alaskan9974
Posts: 142
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2011 9:06 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):

The size of the engines for a twin of that size would be enormous, to say the least. Especially when you consider the one engine out performance it must have. Quad's have the advantage in this respect imo.
 
OldAeroGuy
Posts: 3928
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:50 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 38):
Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):It is clear to me just a marketing ploy to attempt to creative uncertainty in the minds of some prospective 777X
customers.
Huh? It substantially pre-dated the 777X



Huh? 777X design work began in 2010 with customer visits the same year.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
astuteman
Posts: 7184
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting alaskan9974 (Reply 42):
The size of the engines for a twin of that size would be enormous, to say the least. Especially when you consider the one engine out performance it must have. Quad's have the advantage in this respect imo.

And that added to the fact that the 2nd deck seems to throw the wing box very low in the fuselage suggests that a "twin A380" is unlikely. I suspect a BWB is a better long-term answer

Rgds
 
tortugamon
Topic Author
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:10 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
We all know that huge orders by EK for the A380 does not a success make. Well I would suggest that the same applies to this 400 seater too (and it's orders to date)

That may be but good luck launching a successful large aircraft without EK/QR/EY buying in. It didn't work well for the 748 and I suspect it won't work well for any 400 seater that the ME3 don't buy into. They may not make a program but they sure can come close to breaking one.

Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
I see 'other' airlines downsizing not upsizing in capacity terms at the moment.

I think one of the untold stories of the 788 so far is just how many routes it is taking the place of 77Es. ANA, UA, BA, AI, and other airlines are substituting down presumably because of lower loads in order to gain higher yields. When airlines like BA, UA, AA, and AF start replacing their 772/77Es I am curious if they will be scaled up more to the A359 or down to the 789.

Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
As I know you know, it is not of course about (business) 'comfort' it is about cold hard cash - profits to be specific and IMHO am not sure the case has been made that it is there.

Sure but there does reach a point where the 777x sells too many and Airbus' hand is forced. I don't think we are at that point yet but if we start seeing customers waiting 3+ years longer for a 777x than an A351 I bet Airbus will not take long to do something.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 38):
Still, if they're going to breach 80m for a twin, they may as well for the A380 too

It would look awesome. Although with folding wing tips it may not even be necessary.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
So yes, I think it really did help Airbus.

I would be comfortable saying that it hurt them less than not doing it would have. I am still on the fence in terms of how much it may have helped. I am optimistic about the future but up to this point it can't be viewed as a great success....yet.

Quoting alaskan9974 (Reply 42):
The size of the engines for a twin of that size would be enormous, to say the least. Especially when you consider the one engine out performance it must have

The 777x MTOW is 775K. This Airbus twin is looking at 892k or 15% more than the 777x. The 777x is working with 105klbf engines and a 71m wing. If this frame has an 80m wing it certainly would not need 15% more thrust than that and that is 120klbf or just 5k more than the 2004 technology currently hanging on 77W wings. I expect RR or GE would have zero trouble accommodating. The diameter may need to increase closer to 138" but I am sure they could make it work. I actually think they can do closer to 135k if they bought into the concept and were properly motivated.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 43):
Huh? 777X design work began in 2010 with customer visits the same year.

Agreed. We knew a lot about the 777x in 2012 so we know that Airbus knew even more.

tortugamon
 
tim73
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:03 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:12 pm

You guys are just not thinking big enough. A380 is the first of many true airships to come. I'd bet we will see 1500 pax airships by 2030 latest. Every year the world's population grows by another 70 million.

In the 80's Boeing sold at best 300 planes per year, Airbus up to 100-150. Today it is almost 1500 planes Airbus and Boeing each yearly! It is going to get crowded up there soon so the only way forward is to build bigger planes.
 
airbazar
Posts: 10197
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:20 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):

It won them pretty much the entire VLA market.

I don't agree. That all depends on how you measure a VLA. Wouldn't a 77W with more seats than an A380 be a VLA too?

KE A380: 417 passengers
EK 2-class 77W: 427 passengers
AF 3-class (J, Y+, Y) 77W: 468 passengers

[Edited 2014-01-27 11:22:37]
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:44 pm

I think there is too much talk about the airplaine that "kills" the competition. If the A350 in its versions sells well, making a headache for Airbus how to produce fast enough, it will matter not an iota to Airbus if the B777-8/9 sells also well.
Why should Airbus spend billions to "kill" a competition? They will have a look at the market above their A350-1000 and perhaps 1100 and decide if it will make them money to go for this market or not and I have my doubts that a share of that market will pay at this time for a new cleansheet program.
They will decide for there next program the area were they expect to make the most money, and that could well be below the A350 and above the A320. That is were I would expect Airbus to be instead of getting exited about Boeing selling more B777.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Airbus Mega-Twin Concept

Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:49 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 18):
It now owns the 773ER space and that forced Boeing to go bigger with what looks like a successful 77X project (that will KO the 748 in passing). Now it is Airbus' turn to respond with something between A3510 and A388 (if they think there is a big enough market in that space to share with Boeing).

FWIW all I expect is a simple stretch of the 3510 initially and, if that works, a follow-on LR version, like Boeing did with the 773 and later the 773ER,

I think it is a little early for you to make the assertion that Airbus now owns the 773ER market. When you compare side by side the length of time that the A35J has been for sale to the same vs Boeing's 773ER (and the A35J has been on the market for a few years now) the 773ER has outsold the A35J and continues to this day to outsell the A35J and seeing that most airlines with the exception of a few keep their wide bodies flying anywhere between 15-20 years and the fact that Boeing still has a large number of 773ER's still on the books yet to be delivered I think its to early to say the A35J owns this market. While the A35J had an increase in the number of orders in 2013 before that sales were stagnant while Boeing continued to sale its 773ER in vast numbers. People keep saying the A35J is better than the 773ER and I will agree with that statement the problem I have is this: the 773ER is the present the aircraft represents the here and now which IMO means that if Airbus does in fact have to come up with a response to Boeing's 777-9x then Airbus designed an airplane for the present and not the future. The A35J if I'm not mistaken is supposed to enter service sometime in 2018 Boeing's 777-9x supposed to enter service either in 2020 or 2021. Instead of designing a aircraft to compete with the current 773ER Airbus should have thought about and taken into account what the next evolution of the 777 could be and designed an airplane that could compete with that future aircraft.

Boeing made a mistake with the 747-8i I believe that Airbus has made a mistake as well because although the A35J is better than the current 773ER it is not better the the future Boeing 777x. And the fact that Boeing has so many 773ER's on back order and most 773ER's flying today are still relatively young means that Boeing has time to bridge the gap between its current 773ER and its future 777x. I'm sorry to say but IMO Airbuses A35J does not own any space because they can't even convince airlines over the past few years to stop ordering the current model of the 773ER in favor of waiting for their future A35J which enters commercial service in a few short years. This is what happens when you take aim squarely at the current model and forget about future models that may come.

Like others have pointed out Airbus forced Boeing's hand with the A380 and the A320neo, before then Boeing wanted to go in a different direction but decided it had to respond with the 747-8i and the 737 MAX. Now Boeing is returning the favor, either Airbus has to accept the fact that Boeing's 777-9x will beat them at their own game or design another aircraft in addition to the A35J an aircraft they can pit right up against Boeing's 777-9x.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos