SA7700
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A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:21 am

As part 3 became quite long, part 4 has been created and is now open for discussion.

Part 1 can be found here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 1) (by StickShaker Dec 30 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Part 2 can be found here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 2) (by SA7700 Jan 4 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 3 can be found here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 3 (by SA7700 Jan 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)


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SA7700
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seahawk
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:59 am

Regarding the engine. If Airbus does the NEO and RR is not on it, they lose quite some sales considering that the Trent 700 is the most popular choice for the CEO.

Currently it is:

RR: XWB, 787, A330 (dominating)
GE: 787, A330
PW: A330

If the NEO goes to GE then it would be:

RR, XWB, 787
GE: 787, NEO
PW: ---

If the NEO goes to RR:

RR: XWB, 787, NEO
GE: 787
PW: ----

If the NEO goes to PW
RR: XWB, 787
GE: 787
PW: NEO

For me PW is the most likely candidate to bring a new engine for the NEO.
 
StTim
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:29 am

The problem for the NEO as I see it is this. The frame needs the most efficient engine (for weight) possible to close the gap with the 787 on fuel burn. This implies a new engine BUT the neo to be successful also needs to be quick to market which implies an existing engine.

The two cannot be resolved so they have to in my opinion go for a current, or very close to current, engine.


It also needs to be a cheap (if a billion dollars can be called cheap) upgrade.

[Edited 2014-01-31 01:34:37]
 
tortugamon
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:31 am

Is this for wide bodies? 777? A380? 747? 767?


tortugamon
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:47 am

Rolls-Royce is believed to be discussing a new derivative based on the Trent 1000 TEN variant now in development for the 787-10 while GE is discussing a version of the latest PIP II (GEnx-1B / GEnx-2B) standard with Airbus.

Reengining the A330 could take 2-3 years.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/awx_01_31_2014_p0-659788.xml&p=1

[Edited 2014-01-31 02:47:26]
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scbriml
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:18 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 1):
For me PW is the most likely candidate to bring a new engine for the NEO.

What would PW have to offer Airbus today for delivery around 2018? Can't see it happening.   

In fact, reading the AW article that KarelXWB linked above, it says:

Quote:
Pratt & Whitney, which offers PW4168/PW4170 versions of the PW4000 family as engine options on the A330, is not expected to submit a proposal.

If A330neo* goes ahead, it will be with a derivative RR and/or GE engine.



*When referring to the A320, Airbus always uses 'neo', not 'NEO'. I'm assuming the A330 would follow the same nomenclature. Signed, pedants R us.
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tortugamon
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:21 pm

Wish we knew what Guy Norris means by 2-3 years. It says that it could launch in 2015 so does that mean 2-3 years from there so 2017/2018? That should give them a number of years with an availability advantage. Its a good idea. Especially for GE and the 2b.

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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 6):
Wish we knew what Guy Norris means by 2-3 years.

The timeline looks as follows:

> ATO: 2014
> Formal launch: 2015
> EIS: 2017/2018
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):

Thats how I understand it as well. Thanks.

This is good news for Airbus. I think this gives them the potential to take the overall delivery lead again depending on how successful they are with this re-engine. Still won't be a slam dunk but its certainly possible. I couldn't see it being done any other way in the next 5 years.

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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:43 pm

If Airbus see the market as more for the regional then the RR makes more sense. If the long haul is the bigger market then I suppose the GE is the better option. Decisions decisions.
 
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EPA001
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:12 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 5):
If A330neo* goes ahead, it will be with a derivative RR and/or GE engine.

And possibly only 1 OEM could be "the winner" in the end. Or is the confidence and Airbus in a A330-neo big enough to justify two new engine offerings to the customers?   .
 
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Revelation
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:21 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Rolls-Royce is believed to be discussing a new derivative based on the Trent 1000 TEN variant now in development for the 787-10 while GE is discussing a version of the latest PIP II (GEnx-1B / GEnx-2B) standard with Airbus.

So it seems the RR power plant will need to complete design and then add bleed support, whereas the GE engine is more or less what you see sitting in crates at the GE plant today. Thus RR is costlier, riskier and later, whereas GE just might not be good enough.

And both are asking for exclusivity under the premise that the market would not be strong enough to support both.

I think this is RR's battle to lose. They are the dominant player on the A330. If the A358 should not happen then it'd be easier to move those orders within RR to A333s. As earlier, we read that Airbus likes the idea of getting a custom designed engine as opposed to GE's off the shelf approach.
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 4:40 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 5):
What would PW have to offer Airbus today for delivery around 2018? Can't see it happening.

It depends on what PW wants imho. If they want to stay in the widebody engine market, they need to offer something for the NEO; as this is the last program for the next 10-15 years at least. And we know that they were working on a PW 1095G for the 777X. So they probably have plans for larger versions of the geared turbofan. And as PW claims that the engine scales quite easily, they might be offering something for EIS 2018.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 2):
The two cannot be resolved so they have to in my opinion go for a current, or very close to current, engine.

The proposed engines will clearly simply be bleed versions of the GEnx1B and Trent 1000-TEN.
Low risk, low cost (for the engine OEM's)

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Rolls-Royce is believed to be discussing a new derivative based on the Trent 1000 TEN variant now in development for the 787-10 while GE is discussing a version of the latest PIP II (GEnx-1B / GEnx-2B) standard with Airbus.

Reengining the A330 could take 2-3 years.

As I said, this is the only sensible course, and the only one which allows the A330 to retain at least proportions of its lead-time and capital cost advantages

Quoting Revelation (Reply 11):
Thus RR is costlier, riskier and later, whereas GE just might not be good enough.

I see the risk to a bleed Trent as trivially small

Rgds
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:06 pm

From the previous thread:

Quote:
I imagine some of the cockpit systems could be easily brought over as well. Commonality is pretty critical though.

Airbus will already adopt A350 cockpit functionalities for the A330 regional, a A330neo might adopt even more.
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Burkhard
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:04 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 2):
The problem for the NEO as I see it is this. The frame needs the most efficient engine (for weight) possible to close the gap with the 787 on fuel burn. This implies a new engine BUT the neo to be successful also needs to be quick to market which implies an existing engine.

Not really - what it needs is the engine that makes most money for airlines in the end, all included.

Again GE is sitting on the GENX2, its only application the 748I has been shot down by B with 779 announcement, so either GE scraps the GENX 2 or finds another application for it.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:22 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 15):
Again GE is sitting on the GENX2, its only application the 748I has been shot down by B with 779 announcement

I don't know what the GEnx-2B has to do with the 779 but it may not be quite powerful enough for the A330. The lower weight, the smaller dimensions, and the bleed air make it an easy choice but GE might have to scale it up to get the right amount of thrust. The -1B already has the thrust and would need to be converted to a bleed system. Both are good, neither are perfect.

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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:30 pm

As is normal with RR, we would design a bespoke engine based on the modular system of all the current Trent engines. If this goes ahead I would expect an engine based on the T1000 and the XWB with the added new technology of a composite fan system. This would deliver all the benefits required and also be lighter than the current T700 .
The 3year time scale would also ensure we would have cleared the heavy workload of the T1000-TEN and XWB 84k and 97k which is keeping us very busy at the moment.
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:32 pm

The 779 announcement has killed the market for the 748I (and maybe even F) so the market for the GEnx-2b.

Which MTOW do you estimate the current 2B can give to the A330neo? It must not be 240 tons, if you want long range thake the A350,
Airbus now is heading towards 209 tons for the regional, to clearly differentiate A330 and A350.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 18):
Airbus now is heading towards 209 tons for the regional,

Even less, A330 regional MTOW will be 199 tons.
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scbriml
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:47 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 12):

No sorry, I simply can't see PW getting the right sized engine to market with the timing Airbus needs. The article seems to agree.
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:50 pm

So, if the A33neo does get built, it's an admission that the A350 isn't really able to cover the entire 767/777 market succesfully.
It leaves big space at the top that the 779 is likely to grab and big space at the bottom that the 788 has already grabbed.

The otherway to look at is this: Airbus built a better 781/772 in the A359 by strattling them. Will be interesting to compare in a few years 787-10, 772LR, 772ER and 778 sales against A359. I suspect the A359 will do quite well.

The question is how many 788 sales is the A33neo going to steal. It will likewise be interesting to compare sales of A330neo and 788 sales in a few years (provided A330neo is built).

My only concern is if the A330 is a 747-8i type of response. Airbus dominated VLA so Boeing sank money into 747 upgrades (substantial).
Boeing dominates lower end of widebody, so Airbus responds by sinking money into A330 upgrades (substantial).
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:05 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 1):
For me PW is the most likely candidate to bring a new engine for the NEO.

Unlikely, the 3.5:1 GTF is too unproven and 5 to 7 years out.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Reengining the A330 could take 2-3 years.

That is a 'plug and play' timeline...

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 10):
And possibly only 1 OEM could be "the winner" in the end. Or is the confidence and Airbus in a A330-neo big enough to justify two new engine offerings to the customers?

If derivative engines, the A330-neo is big enough for two. We're talking 120 airframes per year and each engine would need 200 to 300 for its business case (less if the nacelle is shared with another platform which is unlikely).

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 19):
Even less, A330 regional MTOW will be 199 tons.

That low? I would expect higher for more payload albeit at short ranges.


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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:12 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 22):
That low? I would expect higher for more payload albeit at short ranges.

Yes, although other weight variants are on offer too.

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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:20 pm

Quoting lowbank (Reply 17):
This would deliver all the benefits required and also be lighter than the current T700 .

That sounds very interresting indeed!

Common wisdom here at a-net has it that any more efficient engine will be way heavier than the T700 and, therefore, require a lot of re-inforcement. This will make - it is said - the 330 a very heavy aircraft. But if a new engine - delivering all the benefits (which mean, I believe, much lower SFC) - is indeed going to be lighter than the T700 then this need not be the case. It puts the 330neo in an entirely new light in my book!

[Edited 2014-01-31 12:23:42]

[Edited 2014-01-31 12:25:14]

[Edited 2014-01-31 12:26:25]
 
trex8
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:48 pm

Per EASA TcDS the GEnx2 has TO thrust just under 300kN while the original Trent 700 just over 300 and latest 316. I doubt GE will have an major issue matching the higher thrust necessary for any neo version
Also weight wise the Trent is 6100 kg the GEnx2 5600kg

[Edited 2014-01-31 12:54:01]
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:42 pm

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 21):
The question is how many 788 sales is the A33neo going to steal.

I'm thinking few to none, as I think the bulk of the A330-200 replacement market has already been secured by the 787-8 and A350-900. So I do not see much of a market for the passenger version of the A330-200neo.

Where I think it will do best is in A330-300neo form against the 787-9 and A350-900 on regional missions. I don't see the A330-300neo having much impact on the 787-10, so I am not sure if Airbus will still go forward with the A350-900R (Regional) model.



As to engines, I do agree Rolls should be in the better position as their triple-spool designs are better-suited to regional operations. GE, on the other hand, has a bleed-air version of the GEnx already in production so there is probably less risk with the GE option and I think the A330-300neo really needs to get into the market around 2017-2018 before Boeing has the 787-10 in service and the 787-9 in high production rate.
 
trex8
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Where I think it will do best is in A330-300neo form against the 787-9 and A350-900 on regional missions. I don't see the A330-300neo having much impact on the 787-10, so I am not sure if Airbus will still go forward with the A350-900R (Regional) model.

Wasn't it QR or EY who said part if their A350 order at the Dubai air show was for the regional A359 and SQ was supposed to have specified the regional variant with their last A350 order
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 9:58 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 27):
Wasn't it QR or EY who said part if their A350 order at the Dubai air show was for the regional A359 and SQ was supposed to have specified the regional variant with their last A350 order.

Yes, but Airbus could switch them to the A330-300neo if they choose not to go forward with the A350-900R should they launch the A330-300neo Regional.

Or the current A350-900R customers could just take A350-900s with the operating weights and thrust de-rated to values similar to those planned for the A350-900R.
 
trex8
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:04 pm

But was the regional anything more than a paper derate for TO weight and engine thrust anyway?
Don't recall any talk about significant cabin changes like on the regional A330 to increase capacity
 
RandWkop
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:05 pm

One very interesting quote from the Aviationweek article:

However, a senior executive at a large A330 operator offers another view: He sees the current A330 as “a very good base,” but says that a new engine would lead to a 7-8% fuel burn improvement if one factors in higher engine weight. That aircraft would have the potential to exceed 787-9 economics, he argues. It would also raise the question of why Airbus would still want to build the A350-800 in whatever shape or form.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:17 pm

Quoting RandWkop (Reply 30):
One very interesting quote from the Aviationweek article:

It's probably a given that if Airbus launched an A330neo, the A350-800 would be formally withdrawn from offer and any remaining A350 customers given three options: take an A350-900, take an A330neo or cancel.

The A330-300 and 787-9 have effectively the same amount of cabin area so they should be able to seat similar numbers of people. The 787-9 does have an additional 4 LD-3 positions, but will likely weigh a bit more than the A330-300neo.

In terms of economics, on fuel burn projections created by Aeroturbopower and Leeham News gave the 787-9 about a 3% advantage on Seat Mile fuel costs over a 5000nm mission. The A330-300neo can address that through lower purchase price and earlier availability would allow an operator to generate revenue earlier. Also, I would expect the majority of A330-300neo missions would be shorter than 5000nm, which would likely narrow the gap even more.

[Edited 2014-01-31 14:18:06]
 
trex8
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:18 pm

Wasn't the original A358 supposed to have the longest range of the original XWB A350variants? I can see the A330 neo being a 8-10 hr plane but if you want more you need the 359 or the original 358. It's going to be at the longer ranges that the 787 will really kill the 330 neo on fuel burn. Pwb had calculated the a332 could hold its own to the 787 up to 4000 nm after that the 787 was much better.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:22 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 32):
Wasn't the original A358 supposed to have the longest range of the original XWB A350variants?

In 259t HGW form, the A350-800 had a projected design range of 15,860 kilometers. The next-longest-legged member of the family is the 308t A350-1000 with a projected design range of 15,700 kilometers.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:41 pm

I think the A350-800 and a A330neo have nothing to do with each other. The A330neo would be medium to long range frame trending to medium and the A350 would be a long to ultra long haul frame, different markets.
The A330neo would not be a reason to stop the A350-800. I see no reason for a customer for the A350-800 to consider a A330neo and vice versa.
I think it would be a mistake from Airbus not to finish the A350-800. IMO Airbus has done most of the design work.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:49 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 22):
f derivative engines, the A330-neo is big enough for two. We're talking 120 airframes per year and each engine would need 200 to 300 for its business case (less if the nacelle is shared with another platform which is unlikely).
OK. So with RR & GE selling about 300 engines each, Airbus would need to sell 300 A330-neo's. That seems doable indeed.   Now let's wait on the details to see if this program goes ahead and how it will be received within the respective markets.

[Edited 2014-01-31 14:50:25]
 
trex8
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:49 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 34):
I think the A350-800 and a A330neo have nothing to do with each other. The A330neo would be medium to long range frame trending to medium and the A350 would be a long to ultra long haul frame, different markets.

That's my take as well
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 10:54 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 34):
I think the A350-800 and a A330neo have nothing to do with each other. The A330neo would be medium to long range frame trending to medium and the A350 would be a long to ultra long haul frame, different markets.
The A330neo would not be a reason to stop the A350-800. I see no reason for a customer for the A350-800 to consider a A330neo and vice versa.
I think it would be a mistake from Airbus not to finish the A350-800. IMO Airbus has done most of the design work.

I could not disagree more.

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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:06 pm

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 21):
So, if the A33neo does get built, it's an admission that the A350 isn't really able to cover the entire 767/777 market succesfully.

Where has Airbus said the A350 is to cover the spread served by these two models? My understanding has always been that it was to cover the 787/777 market; the former initially being designed to replace the 767 and counter the A332 but growing in scope and size after consultation with the market. As has been discussed elsewhere, neither Boeing nor Airbus has a model that fits within the true scope of the 763 to A332 replacement.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 36):
Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 34):
I think the A350-800 and a A330neo have nothing to do with each other. The A330neo would be medium to long range frame trending to medium and the A350 would be a long to ultra long haul frame, different markets.

That's my take as well

  
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:11 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 34):
I think the A350-800 and a A330neo have nothing to do with each other. The A330neo would be medium to long range frame trending to medium and the A350 would be a long to ultra long haul frame, different markets.

The A330neo would not be a reason to stop the A350-800. I see no reason for a customer for the A350-800 to consider a A330neo and vice versa.

IMO, the A350-800's "issue" is that it is too large to be an effective A330-200 replacement and too small to be an effective A330-300 replacement. It's also too large to effectively compete with the 787-8 and not large enough to effectively compete with the 787-9. As such, it's become an "orphan" and really seems to appeal to only one customer - Hawaiian Airlines.

With only 58 orders (and likely few if any more coming), Airbus has little incentive to do anything with the A350-800 beyond making it a pure 10-frame shrink of the A350-900. But that will result in an airframe heavier than necessary and none of the A350-800 customers need a ULH plane with almost 16,000 kilometers of design range. As such, I would not be surprised if all of them would convert to the A330-200neo and/or A330-300neo if given the opportunity - including Hawaiian Airlines.

Airbus also has to weigh the costs of building less than five dozen A350-800s when they could instead use those slots to build A350-900s or (especially) A350-1000s and use that earlier availability to help them in RFPs against the 787 and 777X.

[Edited 2014-01-31 15:46:14]
 
ODwyerPW
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 1:42 am

Quoting motorhussy (Reply 38):
My understanding has always been that it was to cover the 787/777 market; the former initially being designed to replace the 767 and counter the A332

I fat fingered 767... I meant 787/777. A typo on my part.
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 3:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
Airbus also has to weigh the costs of building less than five dozen A350-800s when they could instead use those slots to build A350-900s or (especially) A350-1000s and use that earlier availability to help them in RFPs against the 787 and 777X.

Not to mention tying up resources to develop the A350-1000 (A35J).

*If* the already developed engine is able to be used, then I could see an A330NEO filling the niche.

Note: I am still skeptical about the A330neo going forward. However, this is a case where I hope to be proven wrong. It all depends on how light the A333neo can be made. For range will not be the A333neo's strong suit (not versus the A359 or 789). It will be cargo hauling (w/pax) on mid-missions (3,000 to 6,000nm).

But if there will be an A330neo, we should start hearing more soon.

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NAV20
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
Airbus also has to weigh the costs of building less than five dozen A350-800s when they could instead use those slots to build A350-900s or (especially) A350-1000s and use that earlier availability to help them in RFPs against the 787 and 777X.

True as far as it goes, Stitch - I'm probably 'over-simplifying,' but on the face of it it would make no sense for Airbus to spend years developing and building a handful of more or less 'still-born' A358s - much more sensible to give priority to the much-faster-selling A359.

Problem is, though, in any business I was ever involved in, the rule was that 'the customer comes first.' Quite a few airlines ordered the A358 in good faith, and now they seem to have no chance of getting any. And, given the 800-odd orders the two smaller 787 models have already amassed, they have no chance of filling the gap with aeroplanes from the rival manufacturer either, for many years...........

On the one hand, 'business sense' says that Airbus should 'phase out' the (failed) A358 and offer A359s to the 'ex-A358' customers instead - but (given that the A359 has been selling well) that presumably means that Airbus would either have to put the 'ex-A358 customers' at the end of the A359 queue, or delay deliveries to the people who ordered the A359 in the first place until the 'ex-A358 customers' have been fixed up?

Obviously Airbus are pushing the A330NEO as hard as they can, as a (presumably cut-price) substitute. But that will also involve delay.

No 'good choices' available, seems to me. And a dreadful stuff-up, with lots of complaints/lawsuits looming in business terms?
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panais
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 6:34 am

Quoting RandWkop (Reply 30):
a new engine would lead to a 7-8% fuel burn improvement if one factors in higher engine weight.

Is it possible for RR to take all leasons learned from the Trent XWB and make modifications to the existing engine the RR 772C?
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
Problem is, though, in any business I was ever involved in, the rule was that 'the customer comes first.' Quite a few airlines ordered the A358 in good faith, and now they seem to have no chance of getting any. And, given the 800-odd orders the two smaller 787 models have already amassed, they have no chance of filling the gap with aeroplanes from the rival manufacturer either, for many years...........

Aeroflot have already converted some of their orders to A350-900s, so I could see them converting the rest. I also believe Air Lease Corporation, ILFC and AWAS will all convert to the A350-900 or A330-300neo, as well.

Asiana I could see convert to the A330-300neo or more A350-900s/A350-1000s.

I think Hawaiian would be willing to take A330-200neos.

I am very skeptical Libyan Airlines and Yemenia will take delivery of their frames. I'm also a bit skeptical about Alitalia as I recall a recent thread saying the airline is facing serious financial difficulties.



Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
On the one hand, 'business sense' says that Airbus should 'phase out' the (failed) A358 and offer A359s to the 'ex-A358' customers instead - but (given that the A359 has been selling well) that presumably means that Airbus would either have to put the 'ex-A358 customers' at the end of the A359 queue, or delay deliveries to the people who ordered the A359 in the first place until the 'ex-A358 customers' have been fixed up?

There would be no delivery delays as those A350-800 customers already have assigned production slots, so those slots would be filled with an A350-900/A350-1000 instead of an A350-800.



Quoting panais (Reply 43):
Is it possible for RR to take all leasons learned from the Trent XWB and make modifications to the existing engine the RR 772C?

The Trent 700EP and Trent 700EP2 both incorporate technologies and materials developed for the Trent XWB.

[Edited 2014-01-31 22:36:35]
 
astuteman
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:37 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
Problem is, though, in any business I was ever involved in, the rule was that 'the customer comes first.' Quite a few airlines ordered the A358 in good faith, and now they seem to have no chance of getting any.

Actually the bulk of A350-800 orders originated from conversions from the original A330 based A350. In that case it would mean those guys get the frame they originally ordered, pretty much, only about 8 years late...  
Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
'business sense' says that Airbus should 'phase out' the (failed) A358

As a technicality, the A350-800 hasn't failed - Airbus aren't "selling" it, preferring to hold the slots for -900's and -1000's

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
Obviously Airbus are pushing the A330NEO as hard as they can, as a (presumably cut-price) substitute

Obviously Airbus have been backing away from the A330NEO has hard as they can, and have clearly said so.
They've been pushing the CURRENT A330 as a substitute (pretty successfully too, I'd suggest)
As you say though, the customer comes first. And the customer base seems to be a lot warmer towards an A330NEO than Airbus are at the moment..
Maybe they should listen to their customers  

Rgds

[Edited 2014-02-01 00:38:51]
 
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scbriml
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:41 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
No 'good choices' available, seems to me.

And yet...

If, and I'm not convinced the A358 is actually a bad plane, you have a lemon, your best bet is to make lemonade.

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
that presumably means that Airbus would either have to put the 'ex-A358 customers' at the end of the A359 queue, or delay deliveries to the people who ordered the A359 in the first place until the 'ex-A358 customers' have been fixed up?

Why? If an airline is switching from the -800 to the -900, they keep their place in the queue and Airbus builds a -900 instead of the -800 they were going to build in that slot. How would that adversely affect anyone else?   

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 42):
And a dreadful stuff-up, with lots of complaints/lawsuits looming in business terms?

Lawsuits? I doubt it. How many lawsuits did Boeing face over the 787? Three and a half years late on EIS and dropped the "lemon" that was the -3. How man lawsuits did Airbus face with the delays to the A380? Yes, both companies had to pay compensation for the delays, but it was significantly less than a lot of people here believe. How many customers did Airbus lose from the original A350? I believe only one customer failed to convert to the A350XWB.

Both manufacturers have made "stuff ups" recently, but it seems when it comes to Airbus. the glass is always half-empty.   
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lowbank
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:05 am

Quoting panais (Reply 43):

If the NEO goes ahead,I would expect the engine designed by RR to a new bespoke engine, as is the case in most of the engine designed by RR.
If you look at the history,
RB 211 -524 was used as the base for the T700 so much so the combust or was the same dimensions and was retrofitted to the 211 spawning the 211 G/T.
The T800 came next and a dev engine based on the T800 . The T 8104 which had a swept fan and pulled 114,000 lbs thrust on the Hucknall test bed.an interesting day as we had to evacuate some of the buildings they were shaking so much.
From that dev engine came the T900 with the first prod swept fan.
Then the T1000 and the XWB
Each engine derivative also had many new design ideas and materials.
Because the engines are modular it is possible to redesign one module and incorporate changes on older designs. A simple example maybe a coating tried in the XWB test may give improved resistance to wear and then that can read back into older engines with minimal testing because you proved it worked in a full dev programme.
There was an interesting article called blades of glory on the royal aeronautical society website which claimed a composite fan module could reduce weight of the engine by 800 to 1000 lbs , I would think that's a little optimistic .
Let's see what March brings in announcements from Airbus.
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parapente
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:12 am

There can be (is) no doubt that an A333 NEO will be (as stated above) 3-5% less efficient than a 789.It is equally true that the shorter the leg the less this becomes.
I just wonder on what seating platform these calculations are made?
If we go back to the very early days of the 787 launch program the 'breakthrough' in sales was when they started marketing it as a 9 abreast aircraft.We also saw their very aggressive reaction to Airbus' 9 abreast A350 Mk1.I well recall Randy showing peoples heads sticking out of the side of the plane!
Now I (as I guess many have) have flown an A300 (same fuse) at 9 across on a charter plane (5-6 hours) nit great but I did not die.I understand that this is how low cost airlines such as Air Asia fly them too.
I doubt the 'sculpturing' of the 779 side walls will be lost on Airbus. OK 'finding' 4 plus inches in not a massive deal but it may find them half an inch per seat. (I cannot remember what they claimed - if anything for the 350 mark1).

But I do wonder what the comparable economics of the 2 aircraft look like when they are both at 9 abreast?On the short/medium routes I guess you could not get a sheet of paper between them!
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4

Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:30 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 45):
They've been pushing the CURRENT A330 as a substitute (pretty successfully too, I'd suggest)

Yup. Makes you wonder how many A358's Airbus would have sold if they had not pushed the current A330 that hard.
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