Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
INFINITI329
Topic Author
Posts: 2516
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:39 pm

According the flight global article, LH may be interested in acquiring some end of the line 777's. They've hinted at more 777Fs, but could they also use this time to get some pax versions so they can retire some of their A340's earlier? They operate the 777F already and in the future the 777-9. This would be a no brainier to me honestly. The ball would be LH court as Boeing only has six 777 deliveries in 2018 LH would have the opportunity to get these aircraft pretty cheap.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...iscounted-end-of-line-777s-395459/
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27045
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:45 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Thread starter):
They've hinted at more 777Fs, but could they also use this time to get some pax versions so they can retire some of their A340's earlier?

Their first A350-900s are due in 2016, but I do not know what the delivery rate is. That being said, a 777-300ER (the only logical passenger option) would be a serious step-up in capacity over the A340-300, but then they choose the 777-300ER to start replacing the A340-300 at Swiss International...   



In terms of the article itself, the higher the production rate, the better the margins for Boeing which in turn allows them to offer a lower Average Sales Price per airframe. So for the best deals for customers, Boeing would want to keep the production rate as close to the current 100 per year that they can. So Boeing might be offering good offers for larger orders, which would help keep the backlog strong through the transition to the 777-8 and 777-9.

[Edited 2014-02-01 13:49:06]
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12760
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:05 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Thread starter):
This would be a no brainier to me honestly. The ball would be LH court as Boeing only has six 777 deliveries in 2018 LH would have the opportunity to get these aircraft pretty cheap.

They must be really cheap to get LH to buy the, at time of the delivery, pretty much least efficient new aircraft in production. As the A333 is slightly more efficient than the 773ER and the 242 ton MTOW version being able to do almost any 773ER mission it would be very weird to see them add a new type at the end of its life cycle with almost no advantage over a type already in the fleet. Not to mention that on missions an A333 can´t do due to payload range, the A346 doesn´t do so bad vs. the 773ER. And of course reducing the number of types in the fleet is an expressed LH target.
I would not be surprised to see a few more 77F, but pax versions?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4518
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:39 pm

Maybe SN will show an interest for a couple of 777s later this decade. I mean by the time the end of the line for the current version 777 comes, Lufthansa can buy a couple of those from Boeing and hand them over to SN if SN wants those. Isn't SN controlled under Lufthansa's umbrella like Swiss is? Would be nice to see Boeing wide bodies again with the Belgian flag carrier. Routes likely to see the 777 if SN decides to go for it: BRU-NBO, BRU-FIH,...just to name a couple of routes I can think of. Unless of course SN decides to stay on the A330 for long hauls.

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
sv11
Posts: 221
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 1999 6:26 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:41 pm

Maybe they are looking to replace the A340-600? They only joined the fleet in 2003 but Lufthansa depreciates aircraft on a 12 year schedule so possibly they could start to retire them starting 2015. The A340-300 will likely be replaced by A350.

sv11
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:42 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 2):
As the A333 is slightly more efficient than the 773ER

I believe the 77W is ~3%+/- better than the A330 on a 5,500nm mission and the 77W flies 30% further than the 242t version of the A333. It is the most efficient and most capable twin available before 2020. Swiss seems to have come to a similar conclusion  


tortugamon
 
dank
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:48 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Thread starter):

According the flight global article, LH may be interested in acquiring some end of the line 777's. They've hinted at more 777Fs, but could they also use this time to get some pax versions so they can retire some of their A340's earlier? They operate the 777F already and in the future the 777-9. This would be a no brainier to me honestly. The ball would be LH court as Boeing only has six 777 deliveries in 2018 LH would have the opportunity to get these aircraft pretty cheap.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...iscounted-end-of-line-777s-395459/

I sas this as simply an interest in more 777Fs if the price were right, not an interest in the 77W.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):

Quoting infiniti329 (Thread starter):
They've hinted at more 777Fs, but could they also use this time to get some pax versions so they can retire some of their A340's earlier?

Their first A350-900s are due in 2016, but I do not know what the delivery rate is. That being said, a 777-300ER (the only logical passenger option) would be a serious step-up in capacity over the A340-300, but then they choose the 777-300ER to start replacing the A340-300 at Swiss International...   

But Swiss was looking for capacity increases, so it essentially was the 77W or the 346 and the efficiencies of the 77W likely won out over the compatibility of the 346. With a stable of 346s, and 748is and 380s still coming in the short term (and 779s in the longer term), I'm not sure why they would pick up 77Ws even for a good deal.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12760
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 10:58 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
I believe the 77W is ~3%+/- better

Ferpes numbers make the 333 more efficient per qm cabin floor and i go with that. No one buys an additional type for a single digit improvements on fuel burn if said aircraft will be outclassed in single digit years from now even if your number is correct.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 10452
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:02 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 2):
As the A333 is slightly more efficient than the 773ER and the 242 ton MTOW version being able to do almost any 773ER mission

..except carry as many passengers/ as much cargo.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 2):
And of course reducing the number of types in the fleet is an expressed LH target.

They would have commonality with the 777Fs, LX's 77Ws, and their 779X's however.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 7):
No one buys an additional type for a single digit improvements on fuel burn if said aircraft will be outclassed in single digit years from now even if your number is correct.

Except LH might want greater cargo or passenger capacity than the A333 can afford. It is not all about fuel efficiency per a m2 of floorspace.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sat Feb 01, 2014 11:22 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 7):
Ferpes numbers make the 333 more efficient per qm cabin floor and i go with that. No one buys an additional type for a single digit improvements on fuel burn if said aircraft will be outclassed in single digit years from now even if your number is correct.

I have the 77W at 3.12 l/m2 and 789 at 2.76 l/m2 which is 11% different and I have the A333 as 15% higher fuel burn than the 789. I don't really see it as an additional type. I am not saying that LH will buy it just that I don't think the A333 is more efficient and it certainly isn't as capable in terms of range nor capacity. Obviously they are both excellent aircraft with very different missions in mind.

Airlines are buying A330s at a good rate and they are 15-17% less efficient than the 787 which has been in service for a number of years and I don't see why the 77W will be that different.

tortugamon
 
columba
Posts: 5237
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:32 am

I don´t see any 777Ws with LH they will have their first A350-900s in 2016 and the possibility to convert some of these into -1000s.

But still, LH could be interested in some more 77Ws for Swiss or if the price is right for AUA.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
kaitak
Posts: 9860
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:52 am

I noticed that LH is going to be sending the A330 to CCS, which just shows what a flexible aircraft it is, gradually encroaching into established A340 routes.

This comment (about late model "classic" 777s) does seem most likely to relate to 77Fs, though if 77Ws were available as a stopgap lease until the 779s were available, it might make sense. They would be considerably more fuel efficient than the A346s and of course, would give flight ops and other areas exposure to the type.

I could see Swiss being interested in more 77Ws, though the 77W does seem to be a bigger aircraft than OS needs. I still see OS as being a 788/789 carrier, possibly SN as well.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19547
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:21 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 7):
Ferpes numbers make the 333 more efficient per qm cabin floor and i go with that.

What range? Shorter missions the A333 should be more efficient and longer ranges less.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
PanHAM
Posts: 9719
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:28 am

LH Carge recently released a Statement that they plan 5% cargo growth in 2014. Some of that will be flown in Pax aircraft and some will be for their freighter ops.

At the Moment, there will be no increase in number of freighters, MD11s will be replaced 1 by 1 with 77F, whoich leaves 13 MD11s by 215 which are due for replacement after 2016. That plus growth can mean the purchase of an additional 13 to 20 77F which would go well into the early 2020s.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12760
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 7:25 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 9):
I have the 77W at 3.12 l/m2 and 789 at 2.76 l/m2 which is 11% different and I have the A333 as 15% higher fuel burn than the 789

i stand corrected as Ferpe corrected his numbers to:

Quote:
...........trip fuel t.........% /m2.....%/pax..vs. the 333
788......58.9................88..........94 /242
77W.....94.1................93........100 /365
333......76.4..............100........100 /295
77E......84.3.............102.........108 /301
332.....71.0...............104........110 /250
346....103.8..............109........105 /380
343......84.4..............110........110 /295
767W...61.0..............112........115 /204
345......95.0..............114.........117 /313
744....123.8.............118..........115 /416

Still the same fuel burn per pax though.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 12):

What range? Shorter missions the A333 should be more efficient and longer ranges less.

Those are for 6k nm missions, so worst case for the A333.

Quoting Polot (Reply 8):
Except LH might want greater cargo or passenger capacity than the A333 can afford. It is not all about fuel efficiency per a m2 of floorspace.

In that case they have A346 and can get more for nickels on the dollar compared to the 773ER if they need. Where payload range is concerned, the A346 fares well vs. the 773ER. It takes a full pax load almost 1000nm further and has~25% more structural payload it can carry for 10-15% more fuel and, what a coincidence, just as far as a 242ton A333 can carry a full passenger load. Between the two, there is not much business case for a 773ER. Especially at the end of her life cycle.

Quoting sv11 (Reply 4):
They only joined the fleet in 2003 but Lufthansa depreciates aircraft on a 12 year schedule so possibly they could start to retire them starting 2015.

LH has a habit of using aircraft to the boneyard, unless they can make a good deal on transferring them. Since the market for A346s is dead, they won´t. In its last annual report LH stated that, depending on business development, the A346 are a long way from being retired, in the best case prediction they will still all be there after all 59 A350 and 777x are delivered iirc. If they don´t have to go for 777x, there sure don´t go for 77W.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
waly777
Posts: 761
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:11 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 10:47 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
Still the same fuel burn per pax though.

77W =0.258t/pax, 0.244t/pax (9 abreast/10 abreast)
A333 = 0.259t/pax

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
Where payload range is concerned, the A346 fares well vs. the 773ER. It takes a full pax load almost 1000nm further and has~25% more structural payload it can carry for 10-15% more fuel and, what a coincidence, just as far as a 242ton A333 can carry a full passenger load. Between the two, there is not much business case for a 773ER. Especially at the end of her life cycle.

Sorry but that is wrong, you must be looking at the wrong payload range chart for the A346 or perhaps you could post this payload/range chart ? Stated ranges @ pax and bags only =

B77W = 7930nm(9abreast), 7825nm (10 abreast)

A346 = 7900nm(high gross weight version), 7750nm

Max payload weight.

B77W = 154,000lbs

A346= 123,000lbs(approximately)

A quick google search should verify my figures.

There is a reason why there is such a difference in sales numbers btw both these aircraft, the 77W was the most efficient twin per m2 of cabin and per pax till the 787 arrived.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
In its last annual report LH stated that, depending on business development, the A346 are a long way from being retired, in the best case prediction they will still all be there after all 59 A350 and 777x are delivered iirc. If they don´t have to go for 777x, there sure don´t go for 77W.

The A346 interiors are being refurbished but they will largely be replaced by the 777x when those start arrivals, except of course you're implying LH is expecting to rapidly grow it's network as that will be quite the additional capacity.

I do however agree that it is very unlikely that LH will be purchasing 77W for themselves. They are most likely more interested in the 77F as they have said they are considering firming up the options they have for that aircraft.

[Edited 2014-02-02 02:50:37]
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
columba
Posts: 5237
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:20 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 15):
I do however agree that it is very unlikely that LH will be purchasing 77W for themselves. They are most likely more interested in the 77F as they have said they are considering firming up the options they have for that aircraft.

As I said before I wouldn´t rule out any 77Ws completely for their subsidiaries - if the price is right.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
smbukas
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 9:17 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:33 am

Quoting American 767 (Reply 3):
Maybe SN will show an interest for a couple of 777s later this decade. I mean by the time the end of the line for the current version 777 comes, Lufthansa can buy a couple of those from Boeing and hand them over to SN if SN wants those. Isn't SN controlled under Lufthansa's umbrella like Swiss is?

As it is for now, LH is not managing SN fleet. LH is not a major shareholder, they had ad option to become a major, but LH decided not to go with that. It looks SN will go more and more separately from LH, they even announced a "new European network loyalty programme" (actually, Miles And More will be kept, but still it is a another move out of LH group).

SN do not have strong financials to make orders for new long-haul aircraft. And their Africa strategy is serving low yield economy class passengers, so it is very important to have very low capital cost aircrafts. They keep growing with old A330, maybe they will switch to another type someday, but I expect they will further use old aircrafts with to keep metal cost low.
 
Max Q
Posts: 8171
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:39 am

Quoting dank (Reply 6):
I sas this as simply an interest in more 777Fs if the price were right, not an interest in the 77W.

Exactly, nothing too complicated here. LH likes the 7F but thinks it's too expensive. If Boeing will cut them a deal they will buy more.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:33 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
i stand corrected as Ferpe corrected his numbers to:

As, Waly mentions the per seat numbers should show a 77W fuel per seat advantage and an even greater advantage at 10Y or 385 seats which is the most common. Still the A333 has sold well despite being on the doorstep of A359 and 789 EIS. Afterall it is more than 25% cheaper to buy an A330 and on shorter routes any 77W would be eliminated so if you can make do with an A330 you do.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
Between the two, there is not much business case for a 773ER

While I obviously disagree in general but for LH they already have the A346s and 748s so the 77W would be largely redundant. Not sure it would be a great fit.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
Especially at the end of her life cycle.

This is hard to read. How can the most efficient twin and most capable twin available for the next six years, one with a backlog of 300+ frames, which has only been produced for 10 years, already be at her end? Can anyone recall a successful program where its in-house replacement was launched within 10 years of its EIS? I can't.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
cougar15
Posts: 1439
Joined: Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:10 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:49 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Thread starter):
LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

they will be 200 F´s. LH has done this for years & faired very well with the concept..... the Mad Dog 11´s were end of the line and served them very well!
His Statements were tactical as always.... and Boeing knows whats coming, LH will replace all MD11´s with deeply discounted 772´s!
Bloody clever, with his comments...... the seed is sown! Let´s Party Boeing....!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10230
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:57 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 2):
As the A333 is slightly more efficient than the 773ER and the 242 ton MTOW version being able to do almost any 773ER mission it would be very weird to see them add a new type at the end of its life cycle with almost no advantage over a type already in the fleet.

Wonder why the 777 sold in such number. An argument can be made for a specific airline based on their current fleet and finances, but the capabilities of the a/c itself are well know and proven.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
Can anyone recall a successful program where its in-house replacement was launched within 10 years of its EIS?

Well I think as with the 767 folks are saying that the Airbus product has rendered the a/c obsolete.
Boeing's took resources away from its 787 to push out the 748i, was that to ensure that the product remained around?
 
jfk777
Posts: 7319
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:23 pm

Not convinced the only 6 77W's in the Lufthansa airline group will be at Swiss.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 21):
Wonder why the 777 sold in such number. An argument can be made for a specific airline based on their current fleet and finances, but the capabilities of the a/c itself are well know and proven.

Do you mean EK? EK has purchased less than 12% of the 777s ordered. Take all of those orders away and it is still the best selling twin of all time. There is a good reason why the A350 is dimensioned off the 777.

Quoting par13del (Reply 21):
Well I think as with the 767 folks are saying that the Airbus product has rendered the a/c obsolete.

Interesting perspective. The 767 entered service 10 years before the A330 and after it delivered its 1000 frame three years ago it is still delivering 20+ units a year for the next 10 years so not sure its truly obsolete yet. 10 years newer should win head to head. I would argue that the 77W or the 77F is certainly not obsolete for years to come. I don't see anything even rumored to exist to take away from the 77F.

tortugamon
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2668
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 2:59 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 23):
Interesting perspective. The 767 entered service 10 years before the A330 and after it delivered its 1000 frame three years ago it is still delivering 20+ units a year for the next 10 years so not sure its truly obsolete yet. 10 years newer should win head to head. I would argue that the 77W or the 77F is certainly not obsolete for years to come. I don't see anything even rumored to exist to take away from the 77F.

There is one commercial airline keeping the 767 afloat, and that is FX with their order for the -300ERF. You may then ask yourself why FX ordered the 767-300ERF over the A330-200F, and there are (at least) three very good reasons for that choice:

1: Price. Boeing needed to keep the line ticking over until it starts spitting out tankers, and FX seized the opportunity to secure very, very favorable prices. I'm not saying Boeing gave the aircraft away, suffice to say they paid around the same that an airline would expect to pay for a 737.
2: Availability. FX 'owns' the 767 line, whereas there is a long line of customers for the A330.
3: Infrastructure. The -300ERF will fit the same gates as the MD-10s, the A332F will not owing to it's much larger wingspan.

It's almost never only about CASM or performance - there are literally hundreds of parameters in play, and sometimes the aircraft that looks least good on paper ends up taking the price.
Signature. You just read one.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 3:17 pm

Quoting B777LRF (Reply 24):

Sure, but I would attribute its longevity to the USAF more so than FX. Without the USAF FX would not have been able to strike as good of a deal. I doubt that a 76F is the same price as a 737 as their list prices are 45% different. Regardless, I was just making the point that it isn't obsolete yet.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
rotating14
Posts: 1391
Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:54 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 4:30 pm

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 20):
they will be 200 F´s. LH has done this for years & faired very well with the concept..... the Mad Dog 11´s were end of the line and served them very well!
His Statements were tactical as always.... and Boeing knows whats coming, LH will replace all MD11´s with deeply discounted 772´s!
Bloody clever, with his comments...... the seed is sown! Let´s Party Boeing....!

That makes the most sense to me. I think its safe to say that in order to bridge the gap between the time the 779's come online, they (Boeing) will need to dump 77W's to 1) keep the line humming along at a healthy rate and 2) get them in the hands of customers sooner than Airbus can give them.
 
trex8
Posts: 5542
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:21 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 25):
Quoting B777LRF (Reply 24):

Sure, but I would attribute its longevity to the USAF more so than FX. Without the USAF FX would not have been able to strike as good of a deal. I doubt that a 76F is the same price as a 737 as their list prices are 45% different. Regardless, I was just making the point that it isn't obsolete yet.

tortugamon



IIRC the FX order came before the tanker deal and Bs ability to keep the 767 line going till the tanker production started no doubt helped their pricing to the AF tremendously
 
neutronstar73
Posts: 794
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2011 7:57 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 2):
They must be really cheap to get LH to buy the, at time of the delivery, pretty much least efficient new aircraft in production.

HAHA...what? There is no way you can say the 77W is, or will be, at the time of delivery, the least efficient aircraft in production, unless you've deliberately skewed your number to make it that way.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27045
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 5:46 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):
Can anyone recall a successful program where its in-house replacement was launched within 10 years of its EIS? I can't.

The A330 family?

The A330-300 entered revenue service in 1994 and the A330-200 in 1998. Airbus launched the original A350 in 2004.


As to the 767, the new FAL has dramatically lowered the production price of the 767, which allowed Boeing to offer significant discounts while still generating solid margins.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:22 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 26):
2) get them in the hands of customers sooner than Airbus can give them.

At this point it appears likely that the A351 and the 779 availability is largely similar. Personally I do not see the 77W competing with Airbus but rather both the next generation of aircraft and the desire to wait for them. As the 77X has many more orders than the A351 I wonder if Boeing views 779 availability as being the biggest thing impacting 77W sales not the A351. Though it is bound to be an excellent aircraft.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 27):
IIRC the FX order came before the tanker deal and Bs ability to keep the 767 line going till the tanker production started no doubt helped their pricing to the AF tremendously

I have the USAF deal coming through in February and the Fedex deal in December of 2011.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
The A330-300 entered revenue service in 1994 and the A330-200 in 1998. Airbus launched the original A350 in 2004.

True but that launch did not stick and I would argue that the current A350 is not really a true A330 replacement especially with the dropping of the A358. True the A350mk1 was an A330 replacement.

tortugamon
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27045
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 7:37 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 30):
I would argue that the current A350 is not really a true A330 replacement especially with the dropping of the A358.

Just because the market didn't like the A350-800 as an A330-200 replacement doesn't mean it was not intended to fill the role of an A330-200 replacement.

After all, the A350-900 has sold in solid numbers to A330-300 customers even though it is also larger and more capable than the A330-300.


Quoting tortugamon (Reply 30):
True the A350mk1 was an A330 replacement.

And secured some 200 orders - mostly, if not exclusively, from A330 operators, as I recall.
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2668
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 7:37 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 25):
Sure, but I would attribute its longevity to the USAF more so than FX. Without the USAF FX would not have been able to strike as good of a deal. I doubt that a 76F is the same price as a 737 as their list prices are 45% different. Regardless, I was just making the point that it isn't obsolete yet.

Absolutely agree on the USAF keeping the production line alive, which I also strongly hinted at. However, the USAF deal came before the FX deal, and Boeing needed someone to keep the production going until the tankers start rolling off the line.

As for the price FX paid, well, list prices are really just a figment of someone's imagination if you are an airline. The only aircraft Boeing and Airbus produces that are sold anywhere near list prices are the BBJs and ACJs. You may not believe it, but what if I told you that Kalitta Air Cargo paid USD 65M for a brand spanking new 747-400ERF? Flip side was it'd been parked up in a desert for a couple of years, and needed a fair amount of work (fuel tank sealing particularly) to get it back up and running. But, and that's the point, both Boeing and Airbus will offer you very sweet deals indeed if they find themselves in a tight-ish spot. The original Ryanair 737NG order is another example of getting rock bottom prices, and you may also recall Airbus giving away A300s to Eastern many moons ago, just to break into the US market.
Signature. You just read one.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5600
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:27 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19):

This is hard to read. How can the most efficient twin and most capable twin available for the next six years, one with a backlog of 300+ frames, which has only been produced for 10 years, already be at her end? Can anyone recall a successful program where its in-house replacement was launched within 10 years of its EIS? I can't.

Because we are coming up on a step change in efficiency, something comparable only to the introduction of jets, which instantly rendered all airline fleets obsolete. The new generation of super-efficient twins does the same, but less dramatically. I do not think any development in the jet age has had quite the impact of this new generation of aircraft.

As to LH buying 77W's for themselves, I see them just as likely to buy flying saucers. They indeed are likely to pick up more 77F's, but they will not buy any more current generation pax airliners. They will wait for the A350's and 777x's. The last thing they need, especially considering their practice of flying planes until they scrap them, is a new type to their fleet that will be obsolete a year of two after they take delivery.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19547
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 8:47 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 15):
77W =0.258t/pax, 0.244t/pax (9 abreast/10 abreast)
A333 = 0.259t/pax

That needs to be kept in perspective. The A333 vs. 77W in 8 and 9 across respectfully favors (due to the lower cost per flight) the A333.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 14):
Quote:
...........trip fuel t.........% /m2.....%/pax..vs. the 333
788......58.9................88..........94 /242
77W.....94.1................93........100 /365
333......76.4..............100........100 /295
77E......84.3.............102.........108 /301
332.....71.0...............104........110 /250
346....103.8..............109........105 /380
343......84.4..............110........110 /295
767W...61.0..............112........115 /204
345......95.0..............114.........117 /313
744....123.8.............118..........115 /416

Still the same fuel burn per pax though.

295 seats in an A333 vs. 365 seats in a 77W is a bit more packed in the A333.
We're effectively comparing 3 class in EK configuration vs. 2 class in QR configuration (closest seat maps I could find that achieve about those seat counts).

For two class, QR flies 305 in the A333 while EK flies 427 in their 2-class 77W. So we have to be careful to compare appes to apples. The 77X should be more comfortable to fly 10-across.

Much of this debate is centered on the seats. Since the A333 seat numbers are for a 2-class layout. I wasn't able to find an airline in an equivalent 788 configuration (they're either far more premium, or Norwegian at 291 seats lacking a proper business class section).

I think the seat counts will reflect each individuals bias. For the 788 I assume 9 across and the 777 10-across Y.

What that list does prove is how short the lives of the high fuel burn airframes are. With such high A333, 77W, and 787 production rates, we should all expect higher fuel burn aircraft to be pushed out of service. This includes the 767, 747, and A340 (all versions). I do not see the economics of performning a D-check on those panes (in particular the A345/A346 which have higher maintenance bills). Soon we'll add the A332 and 77E to that list. Heck, IMHO airlines should really talk with Boeing to get a conversion program for the original 77As/77Es ASAP. Pretty soon the upside in the resale value of the older 767s and 777s due to 787 delays will go away (in about 2 to 5 years depending on air travel growth).

Quoting par13del (Reply 21):
Wonder why the 777 sold in such number.

Because until *very* recently the A333 didn't have the range. It wasn't until the efficiency improvements and a small MTOW increase brought the range up to 5700nm that the A333 was competitive on most of the routes it competed with the 777. The 777 also has a maintenance cost advantage. For 6k nm, we're comparing A333s that haven't even been built with in service 777s too.

We're also neglecting cargo. On routes with still air ranges of 5,000 to 7,500nm, the 77W has a notable cargo revenue advantage. From 4,500 to 7,000nm the 77E has quite the cargo advantage over the A332/A333. Do not get me wrong, here on a.net a few years ago I was one of the few predicting a longer sales life for the A330. The plane has great economics, except on routes over 5,000nm (still air) vs. the 789/A359. Since it takes over 400 planes to have enough 'economy of scale' to create enough competition to matter, we haven't seen the impact yet. but we will.

I still predict the A330 will sell. I'm curious if there will be an A330 NEO (I doubt it, but I would like to be proven wrong.)


Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
Just because the market didn't like the A350-800 as an A330-200 replacement doesn't mean it was not intended to fill the role of an A330-200 replacement.

Ok, true, I give in. It was offered within 10 years of its predecessor's EIS.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
After all, the A350-900 has sold in solid numbers to A330-300 customers even though it is also larger and more capable than the A330-300.

I would argue that A359 orders have little to nothing to do with the A333. SQ, EK, QR, EY, JJ, AF, LH, US that is 302 orders or over half of the book and they have a total of 86 A333s and the majority of them are with SQ and they are less than 5 years old and even SQ says their A359s are for 772/77E replacement not A333 replacement.

So I would argue that the A359 orders are largely for growth, 772/E replacement, and A340 replacement before they are in place for A333 replacement.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 33):
Because we are coming up on a step change in efficiency, something comparable only to the introduction of jets, which instantly rendered all airline fleets obsolete.

I don't know if I agree with the magnitude of this assertion but I think the big twin movement started and includes the 77W. The step change may exist, I think it does, but its compared to 4-ending aircraft not the 77W in my opinion.

I agree, and I said before, I don't think the 77W is an ideal fit for LH unless they have some short term growth issues and are desperate. I would be surprised if those are true.

tortugamon
 
Prost
Posts: 2560
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:23 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:38 pm

I know this is about LH, and I think they'll load up on 777Fs, I can see DL taking 18-20 77W to replace their 747-400s plus some growth. There's probably a few airlines playing musical chairs around the end of Boeing production line.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19547
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Sun Feb 02, 2014 11:24 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):
I would argue that A359 orders have little to nothing to do with the A333. SQ, EK, QR, EY, JJ, AF, LH, US t

EK, QR, EY, AF, and US will be up-gauging A333s. So while not a direct comparison, it shows how the industry is upgauging. I'm personally amused how EK is buying so many A359s that it will be the EK starter jet.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4518
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:24 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 36):
I can see DL taking 18-20 77W to replace their 747-400s plus some growth.

Yes, that's what they are most likely to do, if they don't want the 747-8i. That' s the impression I have. They would order that one instead of the all new 777-9X probably in order to get lower prices and also they can get those planes sooner. Same with the 737, they ordered the current 900ER when the 9MAX was already announced by Boeing.

Delta is kind of reluctant, unlike other airlines, to order the newest Boeing or Airbus planes right away when they are announced. They usually wait a few years after the model officially enters service with other airlines. They still haven't ordered the 737MAX like American, United and Southwest have, they are postponing their 787 deliveries till 2020 or so and I believe that those were previously ordered by Northwest, they recently ordered A321s and A330s but no A350s. They still haven't ordered the A320NEO. Are they going to? Time will tell.

Anyway, back to this topic, I don't see Lufthansa adding passenger 777s of the current version especially if those are not going to be for LX, OS or SN, now that they ordered the all new 777X. I think that Lufthansa is interested in purchasing additional 777s of the current generation, but only as a freighter, to eventually replace all the remaining MD-11Fs.

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5600
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:29 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 35):

I don't know if I agree with the magnitude of this assertion but I think the big twin movement started and includes the 77W. The step change may exist, I think it does, but its compared to 4-ending aircraft not the 77W in my opinion.

I think a 15-20% improvement in efficiency is huge. And that is what the new generation (787, A350, 777X) is offering.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12760
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:08 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 15):
295 seats in an A333 vs. 365 seats in a 77W is a bit more packed in the A333.
We're effectively comparing 3 class in EK configuration vs. 2 class in QR configuration (closest seat maps I could find that achieve about those seat counts).

True enough, but i am not sure if i would concur that a 10 abreast Y-class is comparable to an 8 abreast A330. While a 9 abreast Y-class in an A330 would be even a little worse, its kinda worst casing the A330 and best casing the 777. Anyhow

Quoting waly777 (Reply 15):
Max payload weight.

B77W = 154,000lbs

A346= 123,000lbs(approximately)

A quick google search should verify my figures.

A was fooled by thinking the floor in Boeings payload/range charts would be zero payload like Airbuses, but apparently they are not. I stand corrected.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:20 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
At the Moment, there will be no increase in number of freighters, MD11s will be replaced 1 by 1 with 77F, whoich leaves 13 MD11s by 215 which are due for replacement after 2016. That plus growth can mean the purchase of an additional 13 to 20 77F which would go well into the early 2020s.

LH Cargo plans to grow by retiring MD11s as the market requires. As long as there is grwoth the MD11s will be kept on in larger numbers. (fact is they are paid off and do not cost money when being parked)

So it could be more than 13 MD11s to replace. But I agree with you 13-15 777F seem likely.
 
PanHAM
Posts: 9719
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:33 am

I said that the replacement of the MD11s will go well into the early 2020s.

Fact is also that LCAG is ambitious in the market again, as the more or less only combination carrier left in Europe, at least the one with a significant freighter fleet.

The eye a 5% growth in 2014 with the same fleet of 18 cargo aircraft, that includes the capacity of the bellies of the passenger aircraft.

With 2 777F delivered and one more to come this year, they intend to park 2 MD11 which can be reactivated any time if market demand Warrants that.

They are flexible in their fleet planning with all the MD11 written down and they will haggle over the Price with Boeing for additional 777F orders which is "the most espensive freighter" at the Moment.
Was Erlauben Erdogan!!!
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12760
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:11 am

Quoting waly777 (Reply 15):
The A346 interiors are being refurbished but they will largely be replaced by the 777x when those start arrivals, except of course you're implying LH is expecting to rapidly grow it's network as that will be quite the additional capacity.

As per LH statement, the A340-600 will be retired by that time if LH grows half as fast as they expect the whole market to grow, which is their realistic scenario. If LH grows as fast as the market the A346 will still fly in LH colors when they have taken delivery of those aircraft and the A346 will be replaced with the options they have.
So, yes, they are slated to be replaced by 777x, but it doesn´t require much over-performing to keep them in the fleet and that scenario is already drawn up in the shareholder information.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
columba
Posts: 5237
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: LH Interest In End Of The Line 777s

Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:46 am

Interesting to see that after LH snubbed the 777 twice (once when it came to order either additional A346s or 777Ws and the second time when they were evaluating a 747-400 replacement) the group fleet (Lufthansa, Lufthansa Cargo Swiss, Aero Logic and Austrian) will become one of the largest 777 fleets around.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos