ET is looking to order 10 777Xs.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethiop...nterested-10-boeing-112734430.html

British Airways is studying the 777X to replace some of their 747-400s.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...rways-interest-to-replace-747.html

It already seems clear that the 777X is going to put the 747/8 out of business.

It's no-one's fault - just a matter of increased engine power/reliability, now increasingly-accepted ETOPS-wise.

The only remaining question appears to be whether the 'big twins' will put the A380 out of business as well?

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 1): The only remaining question appears to be whether the 'big twins' will put the A380 out of business as well?

The 748i is pretty much dead , IMO. However, as long as the big 3 ME carriers and Asian carriers currently flying the A380s see a need, I think the A380 will survive.

The article says BA is planning on replacing 25 747s. They have 55 and they have 30 A351s and A380s on order (plus options) leaving 25 and the 787-10s must be for other plans.

Quote: “We see aircraft like the A350-1000 and 777X as being natural replacement aircraft for the 747s that we have"

A 779 order for BA makes perfect sense. A true 747 replacement at an airport that doesn't need smaller airplanes.

ET's possible order looks like its for 10. I really thought the 778 might have a home at ET as they operate out of difficult airports and they primarily have 77Ls and they seat them at 9-abreast making the 779 a good size jump. Especially for 10 units.

tortugamon

I keep reading quotes like this: "When the 777X comes, as soon as we can get the (production) slots we will be there,"

Does anyone else get the impression that Boeing has commitments but isn't booking orders? Are they taking a survey of all customers before booking these additional non-launch orders?

I think Boeing 'invited' airlines in for the launch and booked the large orders first and I think they are going down the list of large orders before they are booking smaller ones like ET. BR has made similar statements. BA, ANA, AF, and SQ (I don't expect much) are next on the list so I guess we will see.

tortugamon

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 1): The only remaining question appears to be whether the 'big twins' will put the A380 out of business as well?

That will be very interesting to watch. If that happens it will be a classic case of "Look, I told you" by Boeing to Airbus.

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 1): The only remaining question appears to be whether the 'big twins' will put the A380 out of business as well?

I don't think so. The A380 is a 30-40 year program at least. Of course the B777-9 and A350-1000 are appealing twins. They will be (the one virtually) brand new where the A380 has not seen its first real update yet. And by the time the B777-9 will see its EIS, the A380 is at least 13 years in operation. And was delayed at that due to the known production problems. So it is normal that newer products will threaten the older products. The B777W flies since 2004 or so (only 3 years apart from the A380) and is also blown out of the water by the A350-1000 and the B777-X.

As the Leeham analysis shows, the A380 has a lot of potential for further development, especially on the engine and aerodynamics side. If implemented it will be the CASM-king again, but CASM is far from everything when it comes to evaluating the purchase of an airliner. But with the latest technology engines and the aerodynamic tweaking and further weight reduction (the A380 is overbuilt with a big margin) the A380 from lest say the year 2020/2022 can easily hold its own against the competition which will be available from late 2017 to 2020.

The interest of BA and ET in the B777-X is only logical. I think all airlines are seriously interested as they should. And after very careful deliberations and studies they will select it, or they won't. In both cases they will have their reasons for doing so. The quality of the airplane de play a large role in that, but the network and markets of the respective customers seem to me more important since the new big twins are all so very close in relative performance.

No doubt though that the B748i is virtually dead already. Too bad since she is a beauty and I will always remain a fan of 4-holers in the sky.

[Edited 2014-02-07 07:26:03]

Well, hopefully this finally puts to rest the proposition spread by a few people that BA dismissed the 777X because they ordered the 350-1000. The 9X for BA is almost a given considering its international hub and the slot limitations, especially if they aren't planning a major reduction in international capacity.

It is a surprise for ET if they're going for the 9X, then again they are planning and implementing a lot of growth in capacity and pax numbers in the following years.

I think the A380 will limp along primarily because the ME3 still find it the best solution for them. But I doubt it will thrive; I think the 779 will at least stay even with it on CASM, and that will make it more attractive for most other airlines, unless they face severe slot restrictions.

Quoting kengo (Thread starter): British Airways is studying the 777X to replace some of their 747-400s.

The Chairman of IAG was quoted early in the 777X program as saying the 777-9 would be "perfect" for the group. When IAG then ordered the A350-1000, some felt that was the end of the 777-9's chances, but I have felt that the plane still had a place as a 747-400 replacement.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5): I keep reading quotes like this: "When the 777X comes, as soon as we can get the (production) slots we will be there," Does anyone else get the impression that Boeing has commitments but isn't booking orders? Are they taking a survey of all customers before booking these additional non-launch orders?

It might be. Until recently, Boeing did not know where they would build the 777X so they had to take into account how that could affect the production ramp and slot availability. Now that they know it will be built in Everett with workers who are well-versed in building a 777, I could see Boeing being more comfortable in opening up slots and therefore more airlines ready to line up and commit.

Does anyone have a rendering?

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 6): Quoting Nav20 (Reply 1): The only remaining question appears to be whether the 'big twins' will put the A380 out of business as well? That will be very interesting to watch. If that happens it will be a classic case of "Look, I told you" by Boeing to Airbus.

One thing is missing in imagination from the posters that carry a flag with many stars and probably some valued posters from down under:
That’s the strategic long term approach beyond a pure financial calculation. Things you can't account well in a balance sheet and even less in a business simulation.

In Europe and even more in Germany in particular: The business case is an important factor, but even more is strategic planning which isn't changed in case there are the one or other quarter or even 2 years with bad business results.

So in case of the A380: Airbus knows that they have the largest passenger plane on earth available, world average plane size is coming from below and moving upwards - now with the 777x the 400 seat market, but some 8 years later when the 777x just entered service it may grow to the 450 seat market. Then probably it’s the real right time for the A380,
All they need is to keep that plane fresh enough and keep going that it stays the CASM leader ahead of the 777x with some margin. An I am convinced that they will do it.
For the engines Airbus will agree to the A330 NEO – to share re-engine cost with more units –
I believe they pt for the better engine even if it takes longer.

The breath will be long enough, even if they have to reduce the yearly output to 20 units/ Year for 2-3 years- no matter what.
Flyglobal

In the end, this story tells me the 777-9X will likely be a lot more popular than Boeing estimated--airlines want a true 747-400 replacement, and the 779 fits the bill perfectly. This is why I wouldn't be surprised both UA and DL will order the 779 in the near future, primarily for transpacific routes.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 4): ET's possible order looks like its for 10. I really thought the 778 might have a home at ET as they operate out of difficult airports and they primarily have 77Ls and they seat them at 9-abreast making the 779 a good size jump. Especially for 10 units.

I think it is because ET already has the 778 equivalent in the 12x A350-800s it has already ordered, hence why they are looking at the the 779X instead.

Quoting ETinCaribe (Reply 13): I think it is because ET already has the 778 equivalent in the 12x A350-800s it has already ordered, hence why they are looking at the the 779X instead.

Ethiopian Airlines has the A350-900 on order, not the A350-800.

And the do have 6 777-200LRs in their fleet for ULH operations.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 3): I really thought the 778 might have a home at ET as they operate out of difficult airports and they primarily have 77Ls and they seat them at 9-abreast making the 779 a good size jump. Especially for 10 units.

The article only mentions the 777X, although it does mention a 406 seater, which seems to be an assumption. If they did go for the 77X, I'd be surprised if a 778 order didn't figure in their plans.

BA: I exhibit no surprise whatsoever. The 787-10/A350 were never going to be sufficient on their own to replace the 744s.

Isn't it amazing to see how things are changing. This year will mark the 30th anniversary of ETOPs - TWA and EL introduced the 767 on t/a flights in 1984 and bit by bit, they have become the norm. Sad to see the four holers go; it won't be long before the A380s are the only four holers left (at least on pax flights). Those who have the 748, or are soon to introduce them - like CA and KE - will no doubt be 779 customers at some stage and will probably replace them when these arrive - likewise Lufty.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 15): The article only mentions the 777X, although it does mention a 406 seater, which seems to be an assumption. If they did go for the 77X, I'd be surprised if a 778 order didn't figure in their plans.

Phew, I am glad I am not the only one in the crazy boat with that though.   Good pick up on the details. The 778s seem like a good fit especially if they are going to go to 10-abreast as that will already give them a big capacity boost and the added performance of the 778 could help. Not sure if that is the way they will go but, like you say, I think they will consider it.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 15): I exhibit no surprise whatsoever. The 787-10/A350 were never going to be sufficient on their own to replace the 744s.

Fully agree.

tortugamon

The A380 will survive... they just need the SUH A389.  

Quoting kengo (Reply 2): The 748i is pretty much dead , IMO.

For passengers. If the freight market ever recovers, there will be more 748F orders.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 4): Does anyone else get the impression that Boeing has commitments but isn't booking orders? Are they taking a survey of all customers before booking these additional non-launch orders?

I suspect slots are too far out for customers to commit...

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16): The 778s seem like a good fit especially if they are going to go to 10-abreast as that will already give them a big capacity boost and the added performance of the 778 could help.

Which routes? If the 779 makes promise, the 778 market will be as small as the 77L's market plus a few orders for the ME3.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 12): This is why I wouldn't be surprised both UA and DL will order the 779 in the near future, primarily for transpacific routes.

For UA, I would be surprised. For DL, it is a possibility...


Lightsaber

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18): I suspect slots are too far out for customers to commit...

I thought so too. That is why I am surprised.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18): Which routes? If the 779 makes promise, the 778 market will be as small as the 77L's market plus a few orders for the ME3.

Right now they route their 787s from ADD-FCO-IAD-ADD. I assume they have good business on the FCO route because of their heritage but it does seem like they have trouble doing it direct both ways because of the difficulties at ADD. They own 6 77Ls I believe because of it. So any routes to North America might be candidates with the large Ethiopian/Somalian population are MSP maybe an ORD flight makes sense; really any flight to the Americas could need one and I don't think they have the capacity yet for a 779.

Its a bit of a long shot but their wide body fleet tends to be Boeing and I don't think they need 400 seats and they are at a difficult airport. Not saying its an easy sell.

I think Boeing will sell more than 100 778s when its all said and done.

tortugamon

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18): I suspect slots are too far out for customers to commit...

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 19): I thought so too. That is why I am surprised.

I don't think the slots are any further out than 9 to 12 months after EIS right now. This is not a 787 (hopefully) and Boeing should be able to get to a healthy rate (6-7 a month or more) rather quickly depending on the demand. The same guys putting 777's together at 8/month now will just start putting 778/9's together. The present 300 or so commitments will probably be spread over at least 6 years which requires a rate of a little over 4/month. If the rate goes to 6 or 7/month you have between 22 and 34 extra frames available for other customers every year.

Saying the big twins would kill the A380 is a bit like saying new RJs would kill 737s.
Beyond the economics aircraft also serve different purposes.

For example A380s are needed by us to serve peak flights to world cities. 787 A330 777 are for off peak flights and cities much smaller. The 777-9X is somewhere between and that's still unclear where it can be used.

Quoting Aither (Reply 21): For example A380s are needed by us to serve peak flights to world cities. 787 A330 777 are for off peak flights and cities much smaller. The 777-9X is somewhere between and that's still unclear where it can be used.

The 777-300ER is an aircraft used for peak flights between world cities.

....but it's getting far too small for many of these flights. Imagine in 7 yrs..

Is the B779X perfectly suited for BA long term? YES

Is the B779X suited for ET from 2020 onwards? I dont think so.

The reason for me saying this is because this aircraft type is way too big for ET for any route. Even their current B773ER needs a couple of years minimum before the routes that it gets deployed on start seeing consistent 75% SF year round. ET till 2025 do not need an aircraft anything bigger than the A359. Their long haul fleet by 2018 will be too complex i.e. B788s + A359s + B777s for what? Quite pointless having 3 different airplane types for a market segment requiring less than 35 units. They should just standardize it around the A359 and B788 plus think of adding a gradual second daily frequency into some Asian/EU markets to feed their second departure/arrival out of/to Addis Ababa otherwise a bottle neck situation will arise !

Quoting Aither (Reply 23): but it's getting far too small for many of these flights. Imagine in 7 yrs..

Thats why the 779 is coming. Now if only your countrymen were ok with 17.3" seats in Y it wouldn't be small at all  

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20):

Well said, makes sense.

tortugamon

Nice to see BA having interest in 777-x. It would be good to see 777x in BA colors. Hope to see 777x in VS,AF & KLM colors too  .

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18): For UA, I would be surprised

You shouldn't be. They're interested too.

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 26): Nice to see BA having interest in 777-x. It would be good to see 777x in BA colors. Hope to see 777x in VS,AF & KLM colors too  .

  
However, I'm not sure about VS right now.

For BA the 779 is a 'shoe in',no surprises here.Indeed it would be a massive surprise if any of the major legacy 744 airlines do not take it. Why would you not? The 388 is too much of a plane for many of the existing routes and 773er's and 351's are clearly a size down. AIG are sizing their aircraft very carefully (and they have the luxury or 2 airlines at all times to mix and match).But as stated an order of circa 20 copies would make perfect sense.

Unless they can (or try) to 'knock out' some competitors with their 388's on certain routes I do not see them taking up their options. It is a huge aircraft to fill up on a regular basis - indeed only one airline can really do it on a large scale.


For those that criticize the 380. One course of action would have been never to have built the aircraft at all.Well if they had got their manufacturing right they would already be at B/E which for a project of this size would have been amazing in time terms.So the logic was/is there.The alternative would have been to build it smaller down from 550 to 450 perhaps. Well they could see perfectly well what was possible with the 747 and indeed it came to pass.How much better would a 450 seat A380 have been over a 748 - nothing I would wager.
And whilst they could not have forecast the 405 seat 779' mighty twin' back then.Phew lucky they did not go for that size either!
So 550 it had to be if they were going to do it at all.And at that size it had then (and would now) have to be a double decker quad. Yup one day (one day) we will see a 450-500 BWB with twin engines - but that day has not come.So I feel it was a fair decision at the time. There is certainly a second sales cycle for the A388 (probably about 250-300 copies). at manufacturing 2.5 -3.0 planes a month it will tick along quite happily for the next 20 years.
If nothing else EK will make sure it does-it is their (not very) secret weapon!

Quoting kengo (Reply 2): The 748i is pretty much dead ,

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 6): No doubt though that the B748i is virtually dead already. Too bad since she is a beauty and I will always remain a fan of 4-holers in the sky.

Aren't there still those few routes in the world that still need quads? S. America - N.Z./Australia & Australia - South Africa?
Is the 777X going to able to fly these routes the most direct and efficient ways like the quads do now? Also doesn't Australia have some laws about the ETOPS range for twins? Wouldn't those need to be changed?

I'm not suggesting that these few routes will keep the 748i alive, but I do see some quads sticking around for these routes, SA & QF could benefit from a few frames, but neither carrier is in a position to be buying 4 holer planes. It's no co-incidence that the two carriers who may benefit from this plane, are not canidates for it

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 12): This is why I wouldn't be surprised both UA and DL will order the 779 in the near future, primarily for transpacific routes.

Our two US carriers with the 744s that need replacing soon, the 777X is the best possible plane out there currently for a proper 744 swap out, IMO.

I hope the A380 and Airbus fails as its the symbol of EU that I dispise. Maybe something good could come from the demise of this beast in the end though a true privately run company with no politicians wasting time and money on grandious ideals.

Maybe the 777-X could be the final nail in the coffin?  

Quoting sweair (Reply 31): I hope the A380 and Airbus fails as its the symbol of EU that I dispise. Maybe something good could come from the demise of this beast in the end though a true privately run company with no politicians wasting time and money on grandious ideals.

Well, you're a ray of sunshine on a cold, dark morning!

With over 10,000 aircraft sold and a range of aircraft sold around the world, I don't think you'll see the end of it anytime soon; the 777X will be a big success, just as the 777 has been, but the A350 will be, also. Given the costs involved in developing an aircraft program, no one is ever going to do this privately; state aid will always figure; I won't get into the whole WTA debate between the US and Europe over Airbus and Boeing, because it is an issue for another thread.

As far as the 777X is concerned, I would agree with Parapente's suggestion that most current 744 operators will take it. I can see AF/KL being a significant customer, LY, SV (thread running now - order probably imminent), TK, and several others joining the club over the course of the next few years.

The dear old 747 is on the way out; the 1,492nd was delivered very recently (to LH); it'll see 1,500, but not 1,600. The 777 orderbook is now at 1,544 (per wikipedia) and is more than likely to exceed the 2k mark.

Sweair,
i see the 777X more as a competitor of the A350-1000, which looks the nail in the coffin of the 777ER. The 777X has more seats but they must be sold at a good yield to compensate the higher trip cost I guess.

Quoting EASTERN747 (Reply 10): Does anyone have a rendering?

Drew this up some time ago:

Quoting Aither (Reply 33): i see the 777X more as a competitor of the A350-1000, which looks the nail in the coffin of the 777ER. The 777X has more seats but they must be sold at a good yield to compensate the higher trip cost I guess.

Yet, exempting LH...the airlines who've ordered the 779 also have the 350-1000 on order.

The same logic re-selling more seats applies to the a350-900 and a350-1000 or the 787-8 and 787-9. Yes, the larger aircraft will have higher trip costs but they have similar cost per seat values, thus the airlines will assign the right aircraft to the right routes.

Quoting waly777 (Reply 35): exempting LH...the airlines who've ordered the 779 also have the 350-1000 on order.

LH have the right to convert 359 options to 3510 so they may get some.

All this points to is that the 3510 and 779 do not compete directly but will sit side by side with a number of carriers.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 36): All this points to is that the 3510 and 779 do not compete directly but will sit side by side with a number of carriers.

Just like the 748i and A380 at LH and KE.  

Most of us being aviation enthusiasts, I think we all can agree that it would be awesome if every home country carriers have chop suey fleet so that we can taste each one of them.  

Quoting parapente (Reply 29): One course of action would have been never to have built the aircraft at all.

Another would have been to try to build the biggest twin possible. In hindsight if they could have found a manufacturer to put together a 125k engine and came at the 777 from just over the top and I would venture that the 777 wouldn't have cleared 1000 frames. But in 2000 how could anyone have seen what would happen in the next 15 years. Easy in hindsight but at the time the A380 made a lot of sense and a giant twin would have been crazy.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 32): The dear old 747 is on the way out; the 1,492nd was delivered very recently (to LH); it'll see 1,500, but not 1,600.

Only 63 more orders to get there! I wouldn't discount it but it would need the cargo market to pick up.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 32): The 777 orderbook is now at 1,544 (per wikipedia) and is more than likely to exceed the 2k mark.

I wouldn't be surprised if it clears 2k before EIS. Once the EK/QR order comes in it will only take an additional 260 orders including the existing 77W and 77F.

Quoting Aither (Reply 33): i see the 777X more as a competitor of the A350-1000, which looks the nail in the coffin of the 777ER.

Come on! How can we be talking about a coffin for an airliner that has a backlog above 300 units? The A330 has a disadvantage against the 787 and has done very well recently, why won't the 777 do the same? Other than the 788 its the most efficient twin in service.

Quoting garpd (Reply 34): Drew this up some time ago:

Great images. The 779 should have the door changes and the tail appears to be more like that of the 788.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 36): All this points to is that the 3510 and 779 do not compete directly but will sit side by side with a number of carriers.

But they will take orders from each other though. For US domestic airlines I could see the A351 being the largest they buy and if it wasn't available I could see them going with the 779. I could see the opposite happening in Europe.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 4): Does anyone else get the impression that Boeing has commitments but isn't booking orders?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18): I suspect slots are too far out for customers to commit...

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 20): I don't think the slots are any further out than 9 to 12 months after EIS right now.

Are you guys surprised that there hasn't been any leasing company orders yet? They are usually close to the front on orders like they were with the 77W and 787 and A350. That is another reason I think Boeing is not booking orders aggressively.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 39): Are you guys surprised that there hasn't been any leasing company orders yet?

A bit, yes. I would expect ILFC would be onboard early. Then again, the program is only a few months old and I have heard that Boeing is working dozens of campaigns for the plane...

GECAS did not order the 787 until Paris 2013, and then only the 787-10. You'd have thought they'd be a 787 order from early on (I believe they helped launch the 777-300ER), so maybe they are taking it slow with the 777X, as well.

Quoting parapente (Reply 29): There is certainly a second sales cycle for the A388 (probably about 250-300 copies). at manufacturing 2.5 -3.0 planes a month it will tick along quite happily for the next 20 years. If nothing else EK will make sure it does-it is their (not very) secret weapon!

If AB spits out 2.5 to 3.0 planes a month for the next 20 years they'll have to sell 369 to 479 more airplanes not 250 to 300 (based on 11 work month/year, numbers are higher with 12). I can see a few orders here and there and a replacement order of some magnitude from EAD but unless there's a major change in the use of the airplane or a 380Neo that blows the doors off the 779 I don't see that happening. With 250-300 new orders at 2.5 to3.0 airplanes per month and an 11 work month year there's 14.5 to 17.5 years left until it's over -- a little over 20 year run, not bad.

Quoting EASTERN747 (Reply 10): Does anyone have a rendering?

Here are some official Boeing renderings:


Boeing livery


CX livery


QR livery

It looks like we can add SQ to the list of those considering the 777x:

"The airline is looking at a potential order for as many as 40 777X aircraft in a deal potentially worth $15 billion at list prices, the sources said, asking not to be identified."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...ingapore-sia-idUSBREA190L020140210

Personally I would be surprised if this order happens. First because they have 70 A350s on order and I naturally thought some of these would end up being A351s. They have around 50 772s 77Es and A330s but they also have another 30 787-10s on order so they seem to have enough in place for replacement and a lot of growth which made me think A350s would be used for at least a partial 77W replacement when that time comes. Finally in SQ configuration the A351 makes a lot of sense because they don't need the extra width of the 777 to fit their existing cabin configuration in an A351 and obviously that is a lighter machine for 773 replacement as well. So, all points really point to A350s to me.

40 777x's is no small rumor/order. I could see the order working if they were willing to go to 10 abreast in Y but I think that is a long shot. They could be looking for growth from their existing 77Ws and the extra 2.6m would do a little of that and the added width could allow them to turn a herring bone J more width-wise potentially opening up some more length for another row. They do a 7-abreast regional J in their 773s and maybe they want to expand that with a 10-abreast Y. It could be they want to launch premium economy to match CX and EK. Maybe the 787-10s end up with Scoot and they won't have as many A351s to switch to. My personal favorite 'what if' is that maybe they want to re-launch their non-stop North America flights and are looking at the 778 as each route would take 3 birds the numbers could add up.

I am sure they would love to have something in between a ~280 seat A351 and their 400+ seat A380s.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43): Personally I would be surprised if this order happens. First because they have 70 A350s on order and I naturally thought some of these would end up being A351s. They have around 50 772s 77Es and A330s but they also have another 30 787-10s on order so they seem to have enough in place for replacement and a lot of growth which made me think A350s would be used for at least a partial 77W replacement when that time comes.

At the moment, EK seems to be looking at the A350-1000 as a 777-300 replacement and the 777-9 as a 777-300ER replacement, so perhaps SQ will do the same. Of their 70 A350s, they need 55 as A350-900/A350-900Rs to replace their A330-300 and 777-200ER fleet, which would leave 15 frames as A350-1000s to replace the 7 777-300s and offer more capacity for some regional routes now being served by the A333/77E.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43): Finally in SQ configuration the A351 makes a lot of sense because they don't need the extra width of the 777 to fit their existing cabin configuration in an A351 and obviously that is a lighter machine for 773 replacement as well. So, all points really point to A350s to me.

Unless SQ feels they need to move from 9-abreast to 10-abreast in Economy to remain competitive against competitor's 10-abreast 777-9s. SQ does not currently offer a Premium Economy product, so they could add that at 9-abreast with 18.5" width to maintain comfort levels for their higher-value customers.

By contrast with the cutthroat narrow body market, Airbus and Boeing cleverly managed to end up with complementary wide bodies, so that most airlines will end up with a similar fleet, mixing and matching 787, A350, 777-9 and the A380.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43):

SQ would be a surprise. I didn't expect them to be interested.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44): At the moment, EK seems to be looking at the A350-1000 as a 777-300 replacement and the 777-9 as a 777-300ER replacement, so perhaps SQ will do the same. Of their 70 A350s, they need 55 as A350-900/A350-900Rs to replace their A330-300 and 777-200ER fleet, which would leave 15 frames as A350-1000s to replace the 7 777-300s and offer more capacity for some regional routes now being served by the A333/77E.

I agree but what about the order for 30 787-10s. That is a lot of growth unless they all go to SCOOT which seems optimistic as well.

One thing we do know is that SQ looks like they are planning on a non-modest amount of growth.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44): Unless SQ feels they need to move from 9-abreast to 10-abreast in Economy to remain competitive against competitor's 10-abreast 777-9s. SQ does not currently offer a Premium Economy product, so they could add that at 9-abreast with 18.5" width to maintain comfort levels for their higher-value customers.

They already have 19" 9-abreast on their 77Ws. The premium economy could get close to 19.5" and have it be a really new class of service for them and it would be the same seat as CX's premium economy (though theirs is currently at 8-abreast) and the same as their current ScootBiz seat. Or they could go over the top and drop down to 7-8 abreast and have a truly unique product.

Like you have said before, the seat width should be the same as the 747 and that evidently wasn't a problem so maybe the ~17.4" 777x seat is going to work ok as well.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 46): SQ would be a surprise. I didn't expect them to be interested

I would be surprised as well. However, it would be the final shoe to drop as far as I am concerned. SQ is the ultimate premium airline and if they give in to 10-abreast acceptance then it will be hard for other airlines to not do the same.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40): I would expect ILFC would be onboard early. Then again, the program is only a few months old and I have heard that Boeing is working dozens of campaigns for the plane...

I think we will see a significant order from them and/or ALC by Farnborough. I imagine Boeing would much prefer to book the early slots themselves and reap the rewards then let the leasing companies sell the slots to the highest bidder down the road. I am sure there is a fine line.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 47): I agree but what about the order for 30 787-10s. That is a lot of growth unless they all go to SCOOT which seems optimistic as well. One thing we do know is that SQ looks like they are planning on a non-modest amount of growth.

The Southeast Asian market looks like it is poised for some serious growth in the coming decade so SQ may be positioning themselves to ensure they're a presence.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 43): Personally I would be surprised if this order happens. First because they have 70 A350s on order and I naturally thought some of these would end up being A351s. They have around 50 772s 77Es and A330s but they also have another 30 787-10s on order so they seem to have enough in place for replacement and a lot of growth which made me think A350s would be used for at least a partial 77W replacement when that time comes. Finally in SQ configuration the A351 makes a lot of sense because they don't need the extra width of the 777 to fit their existing cabin configuration in an A351 and obviously that is a lighter machine for 773 replacement as well. So, all points really point to A350s to me.

Maybe juggling different frames from this or previous orders to Scoot?

Quoting Prost (Reply 49): Maybe juggling different frames from this or previous orders to Scoot?

Sccot announced their 787-9 configuration very recently, which would be 375 (35 Business and 340 Economy) and mentioned that they would be transiting to an all 787-8 and 787-9 fleet. A 787-10 would seat around 430, which would be close to their 777-200ER fleet.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48): The Southeast Asian market looks like it is poised for some serious growth in the coming decade so SQ may be positioning themselves to ensure they're a presence.

Indeed. Can you see them ordering the 777x and staying 9 abreast in Y? I just don't see enough benefit over an A351 if they don't and I think they really want something larger than an A351 as the airline is growing and I am sure they don't want to drop capacity on their 77Ws.

Quoting Prost (Reply 49): Maybe juggling different frames from this or previous orders to Scoot?

If this 777x order comes through then there really isn't much else in explanation that I could come. They have enough data by now to know if the Scoot model should work when they gain even more efficiency with the 787 and they have already expanded to NokScoot out of BKK and I am sure they will try to do the same thing out of other Asian countries and the A359s and 787-10s could come in really handy.

tortugamon