User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:31 pm

In an investor update Republic Airways has revealed it will end leases on 27 regional jets as they come due later this year while its Bombardier CSeries order could be in limbo.

According to the carrier it will return 15 ERJ-140 operated for AA by Q3 and 12 ERJ145s operated for United by the end of Q1.

Carrier says the shortage of pilots since new Federal regulations went into effect play part in the decision, though as we know both AA and UA have themselves started to trim regional flying anyhow.

Also it came out that Republic "could potentially cancel, without penalty its order for 40 CS300 aircraft."

Republic however is receiving 25 EMB175s for AA in 2014.


Story:
Republic Air Won't Look to Extend Some Leases Due to Pilot Shortage
http://goo.gl/sX0Fzh
and
Republic to remove 27 aircraft, CSeries order in jeopardy
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...-cseries-order-in-jeopardy-395806/

=


The 50-seat regional jettison continues. While I am sure pilots might be a factor, I suspect their economics and poor future prospects conveniently lead to RJET returning the aircraft at the end of their leases.

Also with the C-series unless RJET wants to get back into its own scheduled service flying, not sure what place the aircraft have with all the scope clauses in the place at the majors.

[Edited 2014-02-11 09:34:46]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
thegreatchecko
Posts: 689
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 3:34 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:00 pm

The economics probably has something to do with it, but when my old classmates who are there can't upgrade because they can't hire enough FO's, I think there is a lot of truth to the pilot shortage not allowing them to operate all their aircraft.

IMO, if they finally get they their pilots a contract and make it so that RAH is a good place to work, they would have more success hiring new pilots.
"A pilot's plane she is. She will love you if you deserve it, and try to kill you if you don't...She is the Mighty Q400"
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:15 pm

Well with only a net change of 2 frames for the year, I'm not sure what difference it makes on pilot staffing if any.

IMO seems like a good excuse and fortuitous timing to return the ERJs.

Regarding the pilot contract one of the articles mentions any negotiations during 2014 are a "remote possibility" due to NMB case load.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
cslusarc
Posts: 553
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 7:11 pm

I wonder if these 12 ERJ-145s that are currently flying for UA are additional to the 25 ERJ-145s that UA was planning to withdraw in the latter half of 2014 pursuant to the United Investor Update of January 23rd.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
compliancecheck
Posts: 132
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:56 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting thegreatchecko (Reply 1):
and make it so that RAH is a good place to work

Now that is funny! Thanks for the laugh...
 
floridaflyboy
Posts: 1594
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:26 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:02 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
Well with only a net change of 2 frames for the year, I'm not sure what difference it makes on pilot staffing if any.

It makes an enormous difference, as the 25 E175s would have been growth frames if this had not happened. Now, they are replacement frames as far as staffing is concerned.
Good goes around!
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:14 pm

Quoting floridaflyboy (Reply 5):
It makes an enormous difference, as the 25 E175s would have been growth frames if this had not happened. Now, they are replacement frames as far as staffing is concerned.

Yeah but both AA and UA have already made clear their intention of 50-seater cuts in 2014, we just did not have details of from whom the cuts were coming from.
For all we know this was the plan already in works months ago, just RAH spilled the beans today as part of their investor update.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
flyinryan99
Posts: 1502
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:54 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:27 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
For all we know this was the plan already in works months ago, just RAH spilled the beans today as part of their investor update.

The writing was already on the wall with the AA 140s...if one was to go back and look at their (AA) aircraft graph, it showed these planes were going to be phased out by Q3.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:55 pm

Per Flight Global, United says Republics ERJ145 reductions was known and included as part of their announced CLE cuts.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Turboprop72
Posts: 28
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 10:44 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:00 pm

The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:31 pm

Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 9):
The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.

You know that and I know that... and management knows that but the 1500 hr rule did put a wrench into their finally tuned whipsawing. However, with the current model they cannot pay any better. Remember, they are public companies and their stock will get hammered if their costs go up.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Bravo1Six
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:03 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:34 pm

The comment re CSeries was made by an analyst, not by Republic.
 
User avatar
canadianpylon
Posts: 363
Joined: Thu May 01, 2003 10:18 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:08 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 10):

Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 9):
The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.

You know that and I know that... and management knows that but the 1500 hr rule did put a wrench into their finally tuned whipsawing. However, with the current model they cannot pay any better. Remember, they are public companies and their stock will get hammered if their costs go up.

The day of reckoning has come for them, and this may the start of a trend we see around regionals. When you can flip burgers for more money than flying for a regional...well...

The regionals have been slitting their wrists to get contracts with DL/AA/UA (who have been asking them to do it), and now they have started to bleed out. We shouldn't be surprised by this.
Always looking for the longest route with the most transfers.
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4594
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:35 pm

Interesting comments they can walk away from C-series order with no penalties. Quite a deal they negotiated.

But questions about C-series are not surprising, as couple weeks ago there was article about the bad position Republic was in regarding the cash outlay that the order would cause on the company between 2015-2017 and that it had to find ways to grow its annual earnings to cover the aircraft.

This news about 50-seater groundings actually go the other way, and reduce the companies annual revenue so yes the C-series order becomes even harder to carry. Now with Frontier gone, what could be the viable plan for the aircraft? I figure its only a matter of time before they are cancelled.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...ings-inc-could-benefit-from-b.aspx
mercure f-wtcc
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Feb 11, 2014 11:01 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 13):
Quite a deal they negotiated.

They were only the second airline to order the CSeries and BBD was desperate for an airline launch customer for the CS300, especially one in the US.

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 13):
Now with Frontier gone, what could be the viable plan for the aircraft? I figure its only a matter of time before they are cancelled.

Will be interesting to see how BB ends up playing this one.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Bravo1Six
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:03 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:21 am

Again, the comment in the article is from an outside analyst, not Republic. Indeed, the original article was changed to reflect comments from Republic itself, and the headline which was originally screaming "The CSeries is dead!!!!" has also been changed.

But, hey, don't let anything get in the way of what you want to see, right?

[Edited 2014-02-11 17:23:57]
 
realsim
Posts: 520
Joined: Wed Apr 07, 2010 11:19 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:26 am

Letter sent to RAH employees:

Date: February 10, 2014 at 9:39:37 PM CST
Subject: Bryan Bedford letter for 02-10-14

Dear Co-workers,

Good evening, I want to take a few minutes of your time to bring you up to speed on an announcement that will hit the wire tomorrow morning. As you probably have read, United Airlines has made a decision to significantly reduce the number of flight departures at their CLE hub. In their press release, they mentioned that their decision to reduce flight service was prompted by news that some of their regional airline partners were experiencing difficulties in hiring suitable pilots to crew their aircraft. That disclosure has caused quite a bit of media attention as to whether or not we (our country) are experiencing a shortage of qualified pilots. I’ll come back to that question later, but the reality is that our airline, more specifically Chautauqua, is having a very difficult time finding new-hire pilots that meet the 1,500 hour rule AND meet our quality and competency requirements.

It is no secret that many of our small jet, fixed-fee agreements are scheduled to expire this year. In fact, we have 41 ERJs which, unless extended, will expire off contract over the course of this year. Since our successful Chautauqua financial restructuring in 2012, we have consistently said we expect to be able to keep these aircraft in productive service for years to come; however, the pilot staffing challenges are changing that outlook.

Starting shortly after the new law became effective in August of last year, we began to see a steady decline in the number of qualified applicants applying at Republic. As a consequence, by the end of last year, we were concerned enough about the trends that we reached out to all our partners to get their read on the situation and to warn them we could have real problems keeping our aircraft properly staffed. The applicant flow problems continue to persist in the new year and it has become all too clear that we can no longer consider extending all our small jet contracts; in fact, we have asked one partner (United) to accelerate the removal of our 12 ERJ aircraft so we can redirect Chautauqua flight crews to EJET training. Effective April 1, we anticipate ending our Chautauqua ERJ flying for United. We also are no longer able to extend our American Connection agreement covering 15 E140 aircraft. Those aircraft will be removed from service between March 1 and August 15. In total, we plan to remove 27 small aircraft, which we had otherwise expected to continue to operate in to the future.

Of course, this is very disappointing news and will naturally cause some of our co-workers to have real concerns over their personal situations. Wayne is on his way to Louisville to discuss the situation with our team down there, but let me say we see tremendous value in our Louisville base and with our people there, and we have no intention to do anything other than keep it running normally and bring work into the facility to replace the work that may be affected by this development.

We also intend to continue to receive new E175 aircraft for American. Those 25 aircraft are scheduled to go into service this year. And while we have not made any final decisions, we do still have four Q400 aircraft that were anticipated to go in to service this year for United, which we would like to satisfy. Of course, it all depends on our ability to find the kind of women and men who can meet our standards.

So do we have a pilot shortage? Well if you define a shortage as not having enough people that meet the requirements of the 1,500-hour rule and not being able to pass muster with our standards, then yes, we have a shortage, and we are not alone. However, I do not think the country has a shortage of truly qualified pilots, at least not yet. There are ample pilots for today’s needs, but these young people, who have graduated with aeronautical aviation degrees no longer qualify for employment. And there are not enough ways for them to get the hourly time the new law requires. It is a real catch 22, and one you will probably be reading a lot more about for the foreseeable future.

Longer term (and that may only be two or three years away) we will certainly have a much bigger problem, even if the hour requirement is reduced from 1,500 hour to say 500 hours. Why? Because the age 65 rule will mandate retirements for nearly 18,000 mainline pilots over the next 10 years. It started last year with about 1,000 retirements. That number grows steady over the next 10 years. Even under the old system, our country simply does not have the ability to train that many replacement pilots. It’s the same problem countries like China and India have been dealing with for years. We are going to have to develop an entirely new way to train future aviators in this country. But that won’t be much help in the here and now.

Finally, it is reasonable to ask how the lack of a new pilot CBA has affected our recruiting situation. It’s a fair question, but a hard one to answer. It seems reasonable enough that not having a new CBA isn’t helping and certainly may be hurting our efforts in recruiting new pilots now, even though it wasn’t a problem before the new law went into effect last year. However, while we very much want to get the negotiation behind us, the reality is a new CBA won’t create a single new qualified pilot in the USA. I do think it will help bring some people to us that otherwise do not want to consider Republic because of the uncertainty here, but that is a hard thing to quantify. Suffice to say we want to close out the negotiations with a fair deal and, when that happens, if it allows us to hire more pilots such that we could staff more aircraft, of course we will discuss adding these small jets back to service with our airline partners.

For the time being, we should all keep our focus on providing the outstanding levels of service that have become a hallmark of our three great companies. We have faced challenges in the past and as a team, we have prevailed. We will face challenges in the future and, together, again, we will prevail.

God bless,

Bryan


----------------------------------------

It was clear since some months ago that they couldn't staff the new 47 E175s for American, so basically they are accelerating the retirements of the 12 UA and 15 AA jets to be able to transfer those pilots to Republic for the E75s. Although they would have wanted to extend both operations if they had enough pilots, I think the solution for them it's not that bad, because it's quite unlikely that UA or AA would have extended those contracts with 44-50 seaters anyway.

[Edited 2014-02-11 18:29:59]
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5333
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:21 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
Well with only a net change of 2 frames for the year, I'm not sure what difference it makes on pilot staffing if any.

they went from trying to stay the ERJs and E75s to just the E75s, or a reduction of 27 airplanes and its need crews.

I don't understand why this is hard to understand. Rjet wants to keep these jets flying, they can't.

In such they, not United, asked to be able to remove airplanes.



but yes, all one big cover up.  
 
DashTrash
Posts: 1311
Joined: Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:33 am

Quoting realsim (Reply 16):

Tell that clown I said I'll be there tomorrow if he'll pay me enough to make my house payment, car payment, son's school tuition, gas, electric bill, student loan payment, 401K contribution, grocery bill, gym membership, son's karate tuition / testing fees, gas money, cellphone bill, whatever else I'm forgetting my current paycheck goes to and a few dollars left over for a beer. That ought to be around $50 an hour based on 100 / month.

Otherwise another fully qualified pilot will sit at home enjoying the decent living I can make by NOT being treated like a rented mule by scheduling and viewed as a liability by management.

Come to think of it, I'm going to have to ask for a 15% "tolerate your shit" surcharge on top of that $50 an hour. I'll also need weekends and holidays off or there will be another surcharge.

I can guarantee you this. If pilots in general didn't use our careers as our identities, and believe in fairy tales, very little would ever move in this country. Especially at the regional level. Amtrak would love it!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18820
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:14 am

Any one else think there is an aspect of a PR campaign here? Republic has a natural interest is a roll back in the pilot training requirements to keep down pay. Oh, I'm sure at the current pay rates there is a shortage. But could some (not all, just some) of this be an attempt to expand the pilot pool back to what it was?

Personally, I think this will pass over. We will see a marked drop in RJ flights, but the overall aviation network will do ok. There will be a readjustment of pilot pay at the lowest levels that require an ATP.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The 50-seat regional jettison continues. While I am sure pilots might be a factor, I suspect their economics and poor future prospects conveniently lead to RJET returning the aircraft at the end of their leases.

I suspect it is the economics ending the RJ contracts too. Although I would like to know more about the level of pilot trouble. What fraction of openings are being filled?

Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 9):
The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.

Agreed. Anything has to be better than the prior pay situation. It is obvious that the RJ vendors will shrink. This shall just accelerate the trend.

Quoting canadianpylon (Reply 12):
The regionals have been slitting their wrists to get contracts with DL/AA/UA (who have been asking them to do it), and now they have started to bleed out. We shouldn't be surprised by this.

The regionals have been playing musical chairs for a long time trying to be the 'last man standing.' Unfortunately, due to the contracts in place, this will get worse before it gets better.


Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13981
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:47 pm

If those four additional Q400s do go into service how many would the be in active service for UA?
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
n7371f
Posts: 1641
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:24 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 20):

If those four additional Q400s do go into service how many would the be in active service for UA?

32
 
bahadir
Posts: 1339
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2001 4:57 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:27 pm

No bucks , no Buck Rogers
Earthbound misfit I
 
User avatar
JBo
Posts: 1719
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 7:23 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:50 pm

Between the excess of 50-seat capacity and mergers still digesting, this news shouldn't be any surprise to anyone regardless of how the story is spun around. Some of these reductions, like AA, have been on the table for a while now.

The C-series order IS interesting, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the order is canceled. RAH signed the order when they still had F9, and at the time seemed like a no-brainer that the C-Series would fly for F9. Now, with F9 sold and RAH retaining the order, those aircraft really have no home as they exceed the scope for any of their mainline partners.

Were RAH to retain the C-series order, the only feasible solution would be to sub-lease the aircraft to a mainline operator (international or domestic). Far less risk involved than trying to start up independent flying.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
flyinryan99
Posts: 1502
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:54 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 2:51 pm

I find it funny that everyone thinks pay is magically going to change the situation. I don't think it's that simple. Yes you increase pay here, but where are you going to get people to fly these planes instantly? I highly doubt they would come flocking back. I have a very good job and would love to go for my dream but where I am in life now, not even higher pay would really allow me to jump into the cockpit...plus I would still need 200 more hours. Sure there are plenty of aspiring instructors out there but they don't currently have the time to move up. And those instructors are still making piddly where they see $20,000 as a big raise. I was there. Also, all of this talk of starting pay being really shitty, what is the second year pay for an FO? I've heard first year pay at a (not named) is $22,000 with a second year bump in pay to $32,000... at only 80 hours guaranteed...

I still think it's a bigger picture issue here...while student loans and low pay to start out is not great...that's what it is in almost every professional industry right now. Flying in general is not as alluring as it was years ago and the amount of kids aspiring to be pilots just aren't there...And to me, that's a society thing, not a pay thing. Just my idle thoughts....
 
bostonmike
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:08 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 3:00 pm

RAH and its pilots are in mediated negotiations at this time and have made progress towards a tentative agreement. The NMB is not mediating the negotiations, but a professional mediator is, paid for by both parties.

The results of the negotiations could be a sign as to whether the whipsawing of the regional pilot groups has changed directions.
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Any one else think there is an aspect of a PR campaign here? Republic has a natural interest is a roll back in the pilot training requirements to keep down pay.

No, even Bedford says that lowering the requirements won't matter:

"Longer term (and that may only be two or three years away) we will certainly have a much bigger problem, even if the hour requirement is reduced from 1,500 hour to say 500 hours. Why? Because the age 65 rule will mandate retirements for nearly 18,000 mainline pilots over the next 10 years. It started last year with about 1,000 retirements. That number grows steady over the next 10 years. Even under the old system, our country simply does not have the ability to train that many replacement pilots."


The infrastructure to replace these pilots doesn't exist because less people want to learn to be pilots. That means less flight schools and less flight instructors to teach future students. The interest has been declining for the better part of 10 years. This problem goes far beyond the 1500 hour rule. That rule just brought this problem to the forefront a couple of years earlier.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
Yeah but both AA and UA have already made clear their intention of 50-seater cuts in 2014, we just did not have details of from whom the cuts were coming from.
For all we know this was the plan already in works months ago, just RAH spilled the beans today as part of their investor update.

Incorrect, both United and Republic said that this was on an accelerated time frame because of the pilot shortage. Furthermore, Republic just completed a restructuring of Chautauqua in order to compete for future 50 seat contracts (there will be a need and special markets for these planes) so clearly they had every intention of operating these aircraft longer than this and wanted to vigorously compete for flying once the contracts expired. The pilot shortage ruined those planes.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 24059
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:20 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Any one else think there is an aspect of a PR campaign here?

  
Its convenient means to spin things around an unpopular topic and eventually point fingers at folks in Congress for instituting knee jerk legislation.

There is a good reason why the the broad industry is happy to use the pilot topic overnight. It lets them jettison planes, and drop weak markets conveniently under the guise of something else.

For fun take a look at the DOT dockets, slowly Congress is waking up writing the DOT asking why service to XYZ or ABC has been reduced and dropped and what is this pilot thing airlines are speaking about.. Its one big poker game..

Quoting norcal (Reply 26):
vigorously compete for flying once the contracts expired.

Sure they can vigorously compete, but atleast in the case of United, the 50-seat fleet was going to shrink even before CLE.

Matter of fact, UA investor update showed a decline of 34 50-seat frames by year end 2014.

Where do you think those were coming from?? The easiest cut is whatever was set to expire already in 2014.

So yes the pull down might be happening faster now, as RAH said they would like to have the pilots start training on the E175 commencing in April, but frankly the chances of those frames sticking around with UA atleast was almost non existent.

This is all a calculated business decision. Why chase after trying to staff something you are unlikely to earn. Instead hang onto your current resources and refocus then on the upcoming known flying.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Italianflyer
Posts: 660
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:06 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:25 pm

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 24):
I still think it's a bigger picture issue here...while student loans and low pay to start out is not great...that's what it is in almost every professional industry right now. Flying in general is not as alluring as it was years ago and the amount of kids aspiring to be pilots just aren't there...And to me, that's a society thing, not a pay thing. Just my idle thoughts....

I think you are on to something here. Law schools and medical schools have seen their application numbers collapse over the past 3 years because the ROI of tuition/debt vs. starting salary just isnt there. It is more than a 'pay' issue...it is a debt vs pay + long term prospects equation. Anecdotally speaking, I know several pilots (including a family member) who have left the profession altogether. ( My cousin was on the right seat of the 170/5 on the Republic cert for five years. I made nearly twice what she did pouring diet cokes in a mainline legacy cabin. She is now an ATC at a major midwestern airport. )
 
User avatar
mercure1
Posts: 4594
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:37 pm

Quoting JBo (Reply 23):
Were RAH to retain the C-series order, the only feasible solution would be to sub-lease the aircraft to a mainline operator (international or domestic).

You mean RAH become a leasing company?

This still have risk however, as they must still buy asset and hope they can find clients to keep busy for 20-years to earn their money back.
mercure f-wtcc
 
ckfred
Posts: 5169
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2001 12:50 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:46 pm

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 7):
The writing was already on the wall with the AA 140s...if one was to go back and look at their (AA) aircraft graph, it showed these planes were going to be phased out by Q3.

I was on an American Eagle flight between MOB and DFW in late March of 2012. I was listening to another passenger talking to the F/A about what was happening with the AMR/AA/AE bankruptcy. Mind you, this was almost 11 months before the AA/US merger was announced. At this point, a lot of people were assuming that AA would exit Chapter 11 as a stand-alone carrier.

According the the F/A, the plan was to completely phase out the Embrear 135s within the next year or two, followed by a significant reduction in the Embrear 140 fleet. There were still some routes in which pricing power and traffic made sense to keep some of the 140s. But over the next few years, the 140s would also phase out completely.

At the same time, there would be some reduction in the 145 fleet.

Meanwhile, AMR would put in an order for larger planes from either Embrear or Bombadier.

So, even almost 2 years ago, the plan was to start reducing the 140 fleet after the 135 fleet was retired. What we are seeing now has been planned for some time, even before US management took charge of AA.
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5483
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:22 pm

Quoting JBo (Reply 23):
Were RAH to retain the C-series order, the only feasible solution would be to sub-lease the aircraft to a mainline operator (international or domestic). Far less risk involved than trying to start up independent flying.

Theoretically, RAH could start up a new ULCC using the C-series. Granted, I don't think they'll do that because if that was their intent, they should have kept F9. But then again, maybe getting a clean slate to start a new ULCC might work better. With fares rising and consolidation at the legacies, there's certainly some room for ULCC's to grow.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:47 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 31):
Theoretically, RAH could start up a new ULCC using the C-series. Granted, I don't think they'll do that because if that was their intent, they should have kept F9. But then again, maybe getting a clean slate to start a new ULCC might work better. With fares rising and consolidation at the legacies, there's certainly some room for ULCC's to grow.

I would think BB ruined that opportunity with the F9/YX branded flying experience. Were he to say he wanted to start a stand-alone airline right now, I'd think his stock would tank.

Just my 2 cents.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:18 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
Where do you think those were coming from?? The easiest cut is whatever was set to expire already in 2014.

Probably ExpressJet since they have a more expensive pilot contract.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 27):
This is all a calculated business decision. Why chase after trying to staff something you are unlikely to earn. Instead hang onto your current resources and refocus then on the upcoming known flying.

RAH made a business decision to restructure Chautauqua recently in order to compete for the few remaining 50 seat contracts out there. They wanted that $22 million a year in revenue, they wanted to keep flying the ERJs and the E-Jets. They wouldn't have done that restructuring if they had no intention of trying to keep those aircraft flying longer?

They fully expected to be able to staff all of this flying. They failed because pilots aren't out there willing to work for these wages. This wan't a calculated business decision, this is a reaction after their calculated plan failed.

Summer 2014 is going to be very interesting for regional airlines…..
 
tjh8402
Posts: 957
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:20 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:39 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 26):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Any one else think there is an aspect of a PR campaign here? Republic has a natural interest is a roll back in the pilot training requirements to keep down pay.

No, even Bedford says that lowering the requirements won't matter:

"Longer term (and that may only be two or three years away) we will certainly have a much bigger problem, even if the hour requirement is reduced from 1,500 hour to say 500 hours. Why? Because the age 65 rule will mandate retirements for nearly 18,000 mainline pilots over the next 10 years. It started last year with about 1,000 retirements. That number grows steady over the next 10 years. Even under the old system, our country simply does not have the ability to train that many replacement pilots."


The infrastructure to replace these pilots doesn't exist because less people want to learn to be pilots. That means less flight schools and less flight instructors to teach future students. The interest has been declining for the better part of 10 years. This problem goes far beyond the 1500 hour rule. That rule just brought this problem to the forefront a couple of years earlier.

The problem is the cost/benefit doesn't pay off. The cost of getting even 250-500 hours is astronomical, and then as others have noted, the pay doesn't match. I worked line service full time for $20k for year and I didn't have $50k+ in student loan debt.
 
point2point
Posts: 2093
Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2010 10:54 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:21 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Also it came out that Republic "could potentially cancel, without penalty its order for 40 CS300 aircraft."

Hmmmmm... this appears to be a prestige order now just being kept on the books for as long as possible to make sales more than they really are, eh?

I don't know what else it could be if there's no penalty for pulling out of this order...... and since the sale of F9, there is no need for Rjet for these planes.

Even if an analyst is quoted here, is this info accurate?

Quoting JBo (Reply 23):
those aircraft really have no home as they exceed the scope for any of their mainline partners.

Were RAH to retain the C-series order, the only feasible solution would be to sub-lease the aircraft to a mainline operator (international or domestic). Far less risk involved than trying to start up independent flying.
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 31):
Theoretically, RAH could start up a new ULCC using the C-series.
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
I would think BB ruined that opportunity with the F9/YX branded flying experience. Were he to say he wanted to start a stand-alone airline right now, I'd think his stock would tank.

In addition to being over scope, I would think that as Indigo bought F9, they would have insisted on a non-compete clause from Rjet for x-amount of years (usually up to 10 years) and this C-Series order is due long before that. The lawyers for Indigo would be guilty of not doing due diligence had no non-compete clause been inserted. However, since these non-compete clauses are so boilerplate in these type of purchase contracts, I do not know for a fact that there is one in the latest F9 sale.

 
 
PEK777
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2012 12:56 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:38 am

This might be a topic for another thread, but is the 'pilot shortage' as severe as we make it out to be? the $20k salary number being thrown around is ridiculous, but I know I would take a 50 percent paycut down to $40k in a heartbeat to do something I enjoy. Will it get to a point where airlines will be willing to cover some of the training costs for pilots? Is 30 years old too late to consider moving to this profession?

Also, more on topic, the fewer ERJ's in this world the better.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:40 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 35):
Hmmmmm... this appears to be a prestige order now just being kept on the books for as long as possible to make sales more than they really are, eh?

While I'm sure BBD would love to keep this order on the books, I firmly believe that RAH is holding out for some sort of "payoff" of their delivery spots. I don't know the contract details with BBD, but their might be an option for them to sell these frames (either the delivery positions or the delivered frames) to other airlines. RAH would clearly be angling for a bit of income from those positions, which is why I think they've held onto them so far.

Whether that is the actual backstory, I have no idea. But BB has seemed to like to leverage things - I don't see his lucrative contract with BBD for the CS300 as any different. Unfortunately, he might not be having any luck in making a deal.

Quoting point2point (Reply 35):
The lawyers for Indigo would be guilty of not doing due diligence had no non-compete clause been inserted.

Ditto RAH.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 11868
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:23 am

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 36):
This might be a topic for another thread, but is the 'pilot shortage' as severe as we make it out to be? the $20k salary number being thrown around is ridiculous, but I know I would take a 50 percent paycut down to $40k in a heartbeat to do something I enjoy. Will it get to a point where airlines will be willing to cover some of the training costs for pilots? Is 30 years old too late to consider moving to this profession?

Giving that the Market for Pilots is rather global pay is a problem even in a light under supply situation. Elsewhere Pilots get jobs right after having their ATPL on the likes of A320/737 for more than 20k US$. LGW-Luftfahrtgesellschaft Walter (Germany)">HE (kinda like Republic Airways, but flying for AB) pays ab initio pilots 33k EUR (~45k US$, 29k US after taxes and all) to fly their Q400 iirc. And that being Germany, it includes health & nursing care insurance, pension and unemployment insurance. And LGW has been criticized all over the media for paying peanuts.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
bahadir
Posts: 1339
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2001 4:57 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:42 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 36):
he $20k salary number being thrown around is ridiculous, but I know I would take a 50 percent paycut down to $40k in a heartbeat to do something I enjoy. Will it get to a point where airlines will be willing to cover some of the training costs for pilots? Is 30 years old too late to consider moving to this profession?

Send this message to the regional CEOs so that they can understand why they fail to staff their airlines.

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 38):
Elsewhere Pilots get jobs right after having their ATPL on the likes of A320/737 for more than 20k US$. LGW-Luftfahrtgesellschaft Walter (Germany)">HE (kinda like Republic Airways, but flying for AB) pays ab initio pilots 33k EUR (~45k US$, 29k US after taxes and all) to fly their Q400 iirc. And that being Germany, it includes health & nursing care insurance, pension and unemployment insurance. And LGW has been criticized all over the media for paying peanuts

If it wasn't for EASA and work permits your market would have been flooded with American pilots. There is a reason why there are a lot of us in the sandbox playing expat.
Earthbound misfit I
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:12 pm

Quoting tjh8402 (Reply 34):
The problem is the cost/benefit doesn't pay off. The cost of getting even 250-500 hours is astronomical, and then as others have noted, the pay doesn't match. I worked line service full time for $20k for year and I didn't have $50k+ in student loan debt.

I agree completely. Unfortunately airline management got addicted to low cost labor and their success in whipsawing and threatening regional pilots. They traded short term gains for the long term stability of their business model. The entire regional model is about ready to go down in flames and they are now just realizing it. Unfortunately we are way past V1 at this point.
 
bostonmike
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:08 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:57 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 40):
The entire regional model is about ready to go down in flames and they are now just realizing it. Unfortunately we are way past V1 at this point.

Boy, this whole thing is a can of worms. Maybe at one time the industry could rationalize a significant pay differential between mainline pilots and commuter pilots. The loss of life in an accident would be minimal (unless it was you) and the media would get bored quickly.

But step into a large regional aircraft cockpit today and you will see the exact same level of sophistication as in a mainline jet, maybe higher. I am not suggesting you base pay rates on sophistication but it makes about as much sense as basing them on gross weight and speed. The FAA, in their infinite wisdom, has mandated the same level of qualifications for anyone piloting a 121 aircraft, whether a 787 or an eJet. A cost/benefit analysis no longer offers a long term projection of high wages as an airline pilot at a major airline. There was always a risk. But paying a 100 grand to train for a job paying $20,000 a year just doesn't make sense.

If the model is busted, what is the new model?
 
atpcliff
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2001 6:24 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:35 pm

"I suspect it is the economics ending the RJ contracts too. Although I would like to know more about the level of pilot trouble. What fraction of openings are being filled?"

DEFINITELY: Business Week says that Republic will lose $22M per year because of shutting down the 50-seat flying that they can't staff.

Myself and my fellow pilots who fly commercially to work have been noticing a number of delays due to a lack of pilots available to crew the aircraft that are assigned to fly us....usually regional crews but occasionally mainline crews.

The first week in Aug, 2014, I read that AA cancelled 5% of their schedule due to lack of pilots. I also read elsewhere taht UAL/AA were short 500 pilots.

One of the problems with new pilot training is that the banks won't lend money.

I think that ab-initio programs funded by AA/UAL/DAL will be what fills the gap.

PS-Had to wait 2+ hours to get on my last ExpressJet flight due to the lack of a pilot. The first flight I looked at was a 50 seater with 50 PAX and one jumpseating pilot. The second flight was a CRJ-700 that had 64 PAX, but was weight-restricted to 60 PAX...it was MSP-New Orleans...i hope those types of RJ routes get replaced by mainline aircraft soon.
TRY. It's all you have control over, and it's what God wants.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4278
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:52 pm

Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 9):
The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.

I'm not sure why this was NEWS. Many of us hve said on this and other boards that this was coming one way or the other.
Did any of you think this was wishful dreaming or What?? The question is? What do you Do about it?? How NOW do you get more pilot's in the pipeline?? What do you do about Pay and working conditions?? Who NOW pays for the training needed to OBTAIN and Keep an ATP rated pilot?? Because we can sure SEE that $20K isn't going to make it when $45K is the LOW median for a middle class family.
 
VS11
Posts: 1519
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:54 pm

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 41):
If the model is busted, what is the new model?

Frequencies dropped, higher-capacity planes used to perform fewer flights, higher fares, some markets will be dropped altogether, airlines covering or assisting the cost of training. Longer-term, aircraft manufacturers may introduce more economically viable smaller jets but clearly the existing model financially and operationally is facing its natural end.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18820
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting atpcliff (Reply 42):
One of the problems with new pilot training is that the banks won't lend money.

Because at $20/hr one couldn't pay back the loan as already noted.

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 43):
How NOW do you get more pilot's in the pipeline??

Let the market adapt. There is a *shortage* of jobs for young 20 somethings today. Look at their rush into medicine... As soon as pilot pay corrects, they will be a surplus of pilots within 3 years.

Besides, as soon as pilot pay corrects, the US expat pilots will start returning home:

Quoting bahadir (Reply 39):
If it wasn't for EASA and work permits your market would have been flooded with American pilots. There is a reason why there are a lot of us in the sandbox playing expat.

There are only two large pools of pilots available. Expats and military. Neither of which wish to work for regional pay.

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 41):
If the model is busted, what is the new model?

It will be a substantial reduction in RJ flying which means some airports will lose service.

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 25):
The results of the negotiations could be a sign as to whether the whipsawing of the regional pilot groups has changed directions.

Because of their contracts, there is only so much RAH may be able to bend. I suspect we will see fast shrinking of all the RJ vendors. In particular as DL ramps up mainline and 76 seater RJs.


Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8270
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:04 pm

Can't expect regionals to increase pay a lot when they are under contract with the bigger airlines. Not until those contracts expire and/or are renegotiated. And higher cost means less flying, fewer airplanes, fewer jobs.

Unless they are able to curb the higher seniority pay to increase low seniority pay.

Quoting VS11 (Reply 44):
airlines covering or assisting the cost of training

Under the new regulations you can pretty much forget about this ever happening. Which is very sad.

[Edited 2014-02-13 12:08:52]
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:50 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 46):
Unless they are able to curb the higher seniority pay to increase low seniority pay.

That is going to happen all on its own. 7,000 mainline pilots retire in the next 5 years. That's 33% of the regional pilot work force.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8270
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:55 pm

Quoting norcal (Reply 47):
That is going to happen all on its own. 7,000 mainline pilots retire in the next 5 years. That's 33% of the regional pilot work force.

That's a good point, but remember that not all regional pilots have 4-year degrees and these guys are not eligible for the mainline carriers. Heck, I've heard some of them even have degrees but have chosen to make careers out of the regional airlines.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
norcal
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:44 am

RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:10 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 48):
That's a good point, but remember that not all regional pilots have 4-year degrees and these guys are not eligible for the mainline carriers. Heck, I've heard some of them even have degrees but have chosen to make careers out of the regional airlines.

I'd say most regional pilots have college degrees and that they will find 7,000 with them. Slightly longer term, majors will have no choice but to hire guys with out college degrees because in 10 years time over 22,000 mainline pilots hit Age 65. The military isn't producing the pilots it used to (heck even the Air Force is talking about a fighter pilot shortage). The mainline jobs could be partially filled by corporate pilots, but then who fills the corporate jobs? Regional pilots.

Regional airlines are among the least desirable flying jobs, they will suffer the most.

[Edited 2014-02-13 13:11:07]

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos