point2point
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:12 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 37):
Ditto RAH.

Just curious here, but how would this apply? With Indigo wanting to morph F9 into a ULCC, what use would Indigo have for a regional?

Would be curious to see what the contract between Indigo and RAH entailed in terms of their non-compete, assuming there is one in there, which I'm assuming there is?

 
 
bjorn14
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:41 pm

I find it hard to imagine all those Coke cans sitting in the desert. I know the older ones are approaching 20 years but still.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
MIflyer12
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:57 pm

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 46):
Quoting VS11 (Reply 44):
airlines covering or assisting the cost of training

Under the new regulations you can pretty much forget about this ever happening. Which is very sad.

How does U.S. regulation preclude subsidizing pilot training?
 
Viscount724
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:32 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 19):
Quoting Turboprop72 (Reply 9):
The main problem here is not the 1500hr rule is the PAY! There are not enough qualified pilots willing to fly for 20k a year.

Agreed. Anything has to be better than the prior pay situation. It is obvious that the RJ vendors will shrink. This shall just accelerate the trend.

Current Business Week article on the pilot shortage/low pay issues.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...art-at-21-000?campaign_id=DN021214
 
KD5MDK
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:02 am

How much will it cost to buy an E140 when these are parked? Can you trade in a Corvette to get one?
 
apodino
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:11 am

The C-Series order was in jeopardy the moment RAH sold F9, because this is where the order was intended to go. With Mainline scope clauses out there, I don't see how RAH actually puts them into service without starting a standalone carrier. I don't think BB is stupid enough to make RAH the next independence air.

One thing I wanted to talk about. Who gets hurt the most by the pilot issues at the regionals? I would have to think UA. UA is far more dependent on regionals for domestic feed than DL or AA/US. If RP and EV are having a hard time staffing the 50 seat flying, and they start to get parked to cover bigger flying, UA has the most exposure to 50 seat flying at the moment, and with no immediate narrowbody growth there, I don't see how UA doesn't come out of this with a reduction in capacity in their network. DL and AA/US may see a slight reduction as well, but I believe they are both better positioned to deal with it. The key to AA/US will be how the MQ situation plays itself out.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:34 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 50):

I just meant that just as Indigo has reason to fight for a non-compete, RAH has reason not to. In the end, who knows what happened?

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
tyler81190
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 8:03 am

Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 54):
How much will it cost to buy an E140 when these are parked? Can you trade in a Corvette to get one?

They may pay you to take it off the lot! But I don't think the parked aircraft will have a future life on commercial aviation.
 
point2point
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:23 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 56):
I just meant that just as Indigo has reason to fight for a non-compete, RAH has reason not to. In the end, who knows what happened?

Okay, got ya.... now I see how you meant it..... and I think that we can agree that this is probably one of the more complicated non-competes in the business world.....

 



[Edited 2014-02-14 04:46:49]
 
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STT757
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 12:42 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 55):
I don't see how UA doesn't come out of this with a reduction in capacity in their network

They just announced they're closing CLE, mostly ERJs.

Quoting apodino (Reply 55):
and with no immediate narrowbody growth there, I don't see how UA doesn't come out of this with a reduction in capacity in their network

They have an order for 110 ERJ-175s, 27 to be delivered in 2014.
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jfklganyc
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 59):

They have an order for 110 ERJ-175s, 27 to be delivered in 2014.

Who flies them?? Republic?   Chicken-egg-chicken-egg-chicken-egg-chicken-egg

1. Cost of training skyrocketed post 9/11 with insurance and then FUEL costs going thru the roof
2. Well publicized downfall of mainline pilots 2001- Airline BK
3. Banks stopped lending money for training
4. Age 65 arrived
5. New 1500 hour rule makes training longer/more expensive and new pilots not readily available

Part of it is regulation (117), part of it corporate greed (outsourcing for low pay), part of it consumer greed (expedia, orbitz, cattle care fares) ...

Future pilots responded by walking with their feet
 
ytz
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:29 pm

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 24):
I still think it's a bigger picture issue here...while student loans and low pay to start out is not great...that's what it is in almost every professional industry right now. Flying in general is not as alluring as it was years ago and the amount of kids aspiring to be pilots just aren't there...And to me, that's a society thing, not a pay thing. Just my idle thoughts....

Aviation is reaching a point where pay won't even cover student loan payments. And that's exactly why the industry is going to choke on a lack of pilots. Airlines are going to have to go to the European model of training their own aircrew.
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 3:38 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 61):

Aviation is reaching a point where pay won't even cover student loan payments.

We passed that point a while ago.

A huge problem facing America now is the staggering cost of college. The kids have no idea what a $150,000 student loan really means once they get out. Even state colleges are closing in on $40,000 per year.

For pilots, add on flight training costs. The average costs private to multi engine commercial is $60,000. That does not include CFI ratings. And that leaves you with a couple hundred hours.

Generic State College + Generic FBO Flight Training could leave you with close to $200,000 in debt. Forget Embry Riddle, UND, FIT, Purdue...these flight schools will be much much more.
 
okie73
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:38 pm

Age 65 not only find not help the coming pilot shortage, it made it worse. For five years there was little or no movement at the airlines. Smart kids in college were not going to pursue a job as a pilot knowing they would be a regional FO for years. Many guys who were already regional pilots bailed and went to other industries. Many more went overseas to get job, and they won't come back unless they get a job at a major airline.
 
tjh8402
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 41):

But step into a large regional aircraft cockpit today and you will see the exact same level of sophistication as in a mainline jet, maybe higher. I am not suggesting you base pay rates on sophistication but it makes about as much sense as basing them on gross weight and speed. The FAA, in their infinite wisdom, has mandated the same level of qualifications for anyone piloting a 121 aircraft, whether a 787 or an eJet. A cost/benefit analysis no longer offers a long term projection of high wages as an airline pilot at a major airline. There was always a risk. But paying a 100 grand to train for a job paying $20,000 a year just doesn't make sense.

I always found it ironic; we have a couple of Embraer Legacies (one 600 that's a regular visitor and one 650 that's a based customer) that we see regularly. The guys flying those birds are riding high and probably near the top of the bizjet pilot pay scale, but someone flying the exact same airframe (ERJ-135) as an airliner is at the bottom of the heap and as was said, not making much more than I made on the line, and I got to enjoy the perk of sleeping in my own bed every night.
 
point2point
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sat Feb 15, 2014 7:40 pm

It seems that Republic has reached a tentative agreement with its pilots.....

http://www.businesswire.com/news/hom...Agreement-Pilot-Union#.Uv_B9PldVpU

The proposed contract includes increases in pay that will place Republic pilots at or near the top of its airline peers. It also includes improvements in work rules, quality of life enhancements and more flexibility in scheduling as well as a significant signing bonus if ratified. The TA still must be presented to union members for review and a formal ratification vote, which is expected in March.

With the pilot situation basically taken care of (after how many years?), what next is there for BB to do?

 

[Edited 2014-02-15 11:41:43]
 
KD5MDK
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:31 pm

If all 3 airlines have the same pilot agreement, is there a particular reason that RAH maintains 3 separate airlines?
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sun Feb 16, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 66):
If all 3 airlines have the same pilot agreement, is there a particular reason that RAH maintains 3 separate airlines?

To avoid scope agreements conflicts at it various customer airlines required separate entities. This way they could keep different contracts at arms length.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
tyler81190
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:10 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 65):
It seems that Republic has reached a tentative agreement with its pilots.....

Yes, it is a TA, but simply a TA... I wouldn't start counting your chickens before they hatch. The pilots could still reject it in the vote. Which would be amazingly humorous... but I don't know how I would feel if I were offered that TA over what RP currently has. It will be a tough call.

As for fixing the pilot deal... higher pay is nice... but it can take 5+ years for someone to finish ratings then acquire hours to apply, so it won't be a short process if in fact thats what this is.
 
point2point
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sun Feb 16, 2014 4:02 am

Quoting tyler81190 (Reply 68):
Yes, it is a TA, but simply a TA... I wouldn't start counting your chickens before they hatch.

Yes, I realize that it is a TA, but I think that the odds are probably more favorable now of a contract than not, especially since there hasn't been a contract in how long? ....and with all that is going on with the industry. And yes.... I realize that there are still eggs there to break for an omelet......

 
 
KD5MDK
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Sun Feb 16, 2014 5:29 pm

How does the contract compare to what's available from OO, MQ etc?
 
tyler81190
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:30 am

Quoting point2point (Reply 69):
Yes, I realize that it is a TA, but I think that the odds are probably more favorable now of a contract than not, especially since there hasn't been a contract in how long? ....and with all that is going on with the industry. And yes.... I realize that there are still eggs there to break for an omelet......

I will have to put in a question to some of my friends at RP and see what people are saying about it vs. their old contract. I am sure it is better, but will it be good enough to pass given what the other regional carriers have done? I think they may try to hold out for a better contract or one that offers better protection as far as jobs. Or may try to push for a retirement package.

Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 70):
How does the contract compare to what's available from OO, MQ etc?

I hope to God that RP doesn't try to pull something like MQ did. Threatening to code up shop is not a good negotiating tactic, as we have seen. The union will most always call the bluff.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:38 am

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 53):
Current Business Week article on the pilot shortage/low pay issues.
“At a time when many of our competitors are moving in the opposite direction on pilot compensation, we are thrilled that Republic is able to significantly improve the wages and benefits of the more than 2,200 women and men who safely fly more than 1,300 daily scheduled flights for our major airline partners,” said Bryan Bedford, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Republic Airways. “In August of this year, we will celebrate 40 years of commercial flight. So it is especially gratifying at this important milestone that we can recognize and thank our pilots for their contribution in maintaining our perfect passenger safety record for four decades.”

Sounds like getting rid of the smallest planes will allow for a bit more pay. The question is, will it be enough to allow Republic to take on the E-175s they are supposed to? If the pay is good enough to pull applicants to Republic, I wonder who will be the next regional vendor trying to hire pilots.

For with all the changes, i think the lowest paying airlines will have trouble finding enough pilots.


Now I find it interesting Great lakes lost 200 pilots. But as one of the lowest paying airlines, they would be the first to feel the pain.

Lightsaber
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norcal
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:41 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 72):
Sounds like getting rid of the smallest planes will allow for a bit more pay. The question is, will it be enough to allow Republic to take on the E-175s they are supposed to?

It is a short term fix

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 72):
If the pay is good enough to pull applicants to Republic, I wonder who will be the next regional vendor trying to hire pilots.

They might enjoy some short term success. Long term they and all regionals are thoroughly screwed.

Over 7,000 mainline pilots reach age 65 in 5 years (that's 700 aircraft worth of pilots). More openings will be made in the next 10 years at mainline airlines than there are regional pilots currently employed in the US.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 72):
For with all the changes, i think the lowest paying airlines will have trouble finding enough pilots.

This is true, they will all feel the pain though.
 
bostonmike
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Feb 17, 2014 1:10 pm

Quoting kd5mdk (Reply 70):
How does the contract compare to what's available from OO, MQ etc?

Any information about the TA at Republic is pure conjecture. Nothing about it has been released, but that won't stop the rumor mill. The negotiating committee is to report the their T/A to the local's executive committee on February 21st. Reliable information will be available after that time.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:22 pm

Republic earnings call is next week. I am sure they will provide more insight as to the fleet picture, and might make a comment or two characterizing the pilot TA.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
apodino
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:47 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 59):
Quoting apodino (Reply 55):
and with no immediate narrowbody growth there, I don't see how UA doesn't come out of this with a reduction in capacity in their network

They have an order for 110 ERJ-175s, 27 to be delivered in 2014.

That is not mainline narrowbody growth unless they bring the flying back in house. My point was that if RAH and other regionals cannot staff the flying they are awarded, then UA has no choice but to reduce capacity because they don't have the narrowbodies coming into mainline that DL and US/AA do, which is going to hurt UA more in the long run than the other players.
 
norcal
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 20, 2014 12:53 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 76):
That is not mainline narrowbody growth unless they bring the flying back in house. My point was that if RAH and other regionals cannot staff the flying they are awarded, then UA has no choice but to reduce capacity because they don't have the narrowbodies coming into mainline that DL and US/AA do, which is going to hurt UA more in the long run than the other players.

UA should look into slowing the retirements of the 757s and use the 737-900s for mainline growth. It might also be a good idea to seriously look at the E-190/195 and C-Series for a small mainline aircraft.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:36 pm

Quoting apodino (Reply 76):
My point was that if RAH and other regionals cannot staff the flying they are awarded, then UA has no choice but to reduce capacity because they don't have the narrowbodies coming into mainline that DL and US/AA do, which is going to hurt UA more in the long run than the other players.

This is a major problem for UA. They are too reliant on regionals like RAH and now it's really going to bite them.


Quoting norcal (Reply 77):

UA should look into slowing the retirements of the 757s and use the 737-900s for mainline growth

I suspect UA will be forced to do this unless they intend to shrink the airline a lot more.

Quoting norcal (Reply 77):
It might also be a good idea to seriously look at the E-190/195 and C-Series for a small mainline aircraft.

Maybe, but the economics of these aircraft at mainline are still unknown. Particularly for a carrier like UA that didn't do a good job of cost control coming through the merger, I'm not sure if mainline costs work on a plane that small. It gets tougher to make money when you're spreading fixed cost across a smaller plane.

Of course, if RAH gets desperate enough, maybe they can give their C-Series order to UA to operate!
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:49 pm

Last Thursday earning call provided management opportunity to comment about the parking of the 27 aircraft, and their thoughts on the pilot issue.

o CFO says at the 27 aircraft flying being withdrawn "don’t produce profits for us", along with saying they don't even fully cover their overhead cost.
o The 50-seater jets in general will produce financial "headwinds" at RAH and will so until the last CPA expire in 2016.
o Going forward the company will need to resolve how to either get the aircraft back to work productively, or off property. There was mention possible deal to move as many 15 to an overseas opportunity.
o In regards to pilots they say their normal attrition has been 400 pilots annually, and in 2013 they planned to hire about 500 to gear up for growth, but only ended the year with about 450 new ones.
o For now see no issue meeting 2014 hiring goals.
o Lack of CBA could possibly made prospective applicants go elsewhere, but if new CBA ratified that should resolve itself.
o Bryan Bedford painted a long term picture of regional flying in the US, and fully expects a smaller regional industry, not result of pilot issues, but because the majors are well on the way to reducing feed flying by adjusting gauge over the next 3-years.
o He sees DL ending with about 450 regional aircraft from 700'ish, United something similar, and AA could end up with 400-450 depending on how things play out with the merger.
o Have not discussed with AA regarding added opportunities there
o Sees RAH in good spot as sector evolves, as only about 70 50-seater jets remaining
o More value in 70 and 76 seat regional jets. That’s what partners demand.
o Premium placed on being able to operate with the same brand standards as partners, the same level of service, quality of service. 70-seaters do that well.
o Still an industry that tends to go to the lowest cost bidder. That’s how to figure out who the winners and losers are long term.

=

[Edited 2014-03-03 09:59:42]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
PPVRA
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 52):

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 46):
Quoting VS11 (Reply 44):
airlines covering or assisting the cost of training

Under the new regulations you can pretty much forget about this ever happening. Which is very sad.

How does U.S. regulation preclude subsidizing pilot training?

By making it cost-prohibitive. 1500 hours is incredibly costly and a huge commitment of time.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
N908AW
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:22 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 79):
o Still an industry that tends to go to the lowest cost bidder. That’s how to figure out who the winners and losers are long term.

Expanding on this, I thought Bedford was hinting that the lowest-cost-bidder model was a problematic one. Certainly costs play into it and always will but he made it sound as though the long-term viability of the regional model depends somewhat on mainline partners not lowballing their regionals as much, instead comparing the regionals based on operational reliability and customer service (which is measured at the frontline/passenger level, but probably not weighed very heavily when new RFPs are considered). This concept may hinge on if folks like Mesa and GoJet continue to get contracts based solely on costs that can't be profitably matched by all, and more vitally if YV and G7 can meet their hiring quotas.

In my own opinion, the regionals will wipe themselves off the map if pilot wages stagnate because of the continued race to the bottom of the cost model. I don't think BB disagrees.
'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:06 am

True he said he was not really in favor of lowest cost bidder take all concept that they industry has evolved into, yet he did not have the answer of how to move away from that concept either.

Things like reliability are simple metrics that are incorporate into all SLA agreements these days, and just because you are the lowest cost bidder does not mean you are not reliable. Look at Mesa which in recent times ends up being United Express best performance operator quarter after quarter.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Goldenshield
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:14 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 82):
yet he did not have the answer of how to move away from that concept either.

I don't think anyone truly does, but some are certainly trying. Just look at how many at-risk routes SkyWest has announced lately, and they and TransStates also have those MRJ-90's on order, which are are currently larger than current scope clauses, but that doesn't mean that they have an ace up their sleeve.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 82):
just because you are the lowest cost bidder does not mean you are not reliable. Look at Mesa which in recent times ends up being United Express best performance operator quarter after quarter.

Shedding all of that dead weight did Mesa wonders, and they are definitely a leaner, meaner operation, but time will tell if they can keep it up---especially on the pilot side based on what I'm hearing about their E-175 payscale.
Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
 
norcal
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RE: Republic Parks 27 ERJs; C-Series Order Jeopardy

Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:17 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 79):
o He sees DL ending with about 450 regional aircraft from 700'ish, United something similar, and AA could end up with 400-450 depending on how things play out with the merger.

DL has not operated 700 RJs in quite some time. They are under 600, so is United. I'm not even sure if AA is operating over 600 at this point.

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