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EPA001
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:05 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 148):
SQ has replaced 2 x 77W with 1 x A380 (both ZHR and CDG).

I thought that was a change of 10 flights weekly with the B77W to 7 flights weekly with the A380. That proved to be a significant cost saver and revenue booster. But 14 B77W's to 7 A380's does not sound familiar to me.
 
bobdino
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:07 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 138):
I could see Turkish doing it, however only once the new Istanbul airport is operating (and there is a thread saying that might not be as soon as planned).

Flightglobal's David Kaminski-Morrow is reporting:

Quote:
Our Constantinople correspondent says Turkish Airlines is nearing a deal to wet-lease four A380s. #airbus

https://twitter.com/FlightDKM/status/435790508951343104
 
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N14AZ
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:15 pm

Quoting bobdino (Reply 151):
Flightglobal's David Kaminski-Morrow is reporting:

Quote:
Our Constantinople correspondent says Turkish Airlines is nearing a deal to wet-lease four A380s. #airbus

https://twitter.com/FlightDKM/status/435790508951343104

But Amadeo isn't offering wet-leases, correct?

Anyway, thanks for the information, bobdino
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:19 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 152):
But Amadeo isn't offering wet-leases, correct?

They don't have a crew. Turkish Airlines must wet-lease them from an existing customer.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 150):
I thought that was a change of 10 flights weekly with the B77W to 7 flights weekly with the A380. That proved to be a significant cost saver and revenue booster. But 14 B77W's to 7 A380's does not sound familiar to me.

Thanks, that was my point.

[Edited 2014-02-18 07:20:52]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
scouseflyer
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:33 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 153):
They don't have a crew. Turkish Airlines must wet-lease them from an existing customer.

AF, QF or maybe EK during this summer's runway shut down?
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:36 pm

I started a new thread where we can discuss the TK wet-lease deal:

Turkish Airlines To Wet-lease A380s (by KarelXWB Feb 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)
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Stitch
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 3:37 pm

Post moved to new thread.

[Edited 2014-02-18 07:39:41]
 
astuteman
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Tue Feb 18, 2014 7:40 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 147):
I think Transaero is going over 600 seats without either of the extremes you mentioned. She is a really big bird.

She is. 800 seats all-Y at 32" pitch and 18.5" wide seat bottom? No problems  

Rgds
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:56 pm

Mark Lapidus seems to agree with my statement that Airbus projects the A380 way too luxurious, an image which does not fit into today's economic world anymore.

Quote:
Airbus mis-sold the A380 as a luxury airplane, then they allowed people to move things on the aircraft too much,” says Lapidus. “With the A380, Airbus started with: ‘It’s a big piece of real estate; do what you want to do.’ That has not helped with the key factors that are great on this aircraft, which are the lowest seat-cost economics of anything flying today or in five years.

http://www.flightglobal.com/fg-club/in-focus/amedeos-simple-plan/

Quoting bobdino (Reply 133):
If you look at Wikipedia's slicing and dicing of the world's top 10 airlines[2], the vast majority of the top 10 without A380s are US airlines - United, Delta, American. The wildcards would be Southwest and Ryanair.

If, for a different approach to determining the top 10, you look at Skytrax[3], we're talking about ANA, Cathay, Garuda, Turkish.

Per Flightglobal, the top 10 (in terms of traffic) long-haul non-A380 operators are:

1. Delta
2. United Airlines
3. American Airlines
4. China Eastern Airlines
5. Air China
6. Cathay Pacific
7. Air Canada
8. Turkish Airlines
9. All Nippon Airlines
10. TAM

[Edited 2014-02-19 14:02:50]
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Spike11
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:26 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 158):
Per Flightglobal, the top 10 (in terms of traffic) long-haul non-A380 operators are:

1. Delta
2. United Airlines
3. American Airlines
4. China Eastern Airlines
5. Air China
6. Cathay Pacific
7. Air Canada
8. Turkish Airlines
9. All Nippon Airlines
10. TAM

Of these, quite a few seem unlikely to the point of impossibility as future A380 operators, even though I'd like to see the big bird in all of those colours. To a layman like myself, the Chinese companies should be possible candidates, but not in the immediate future. The North American carriers are in my book among the "impossibles", of course, and Turkish have their hub issues and Cathay have gone down a different path. Not many left, then...

Still, Amedeo have a plan which does not include buying several billions worth of airliners without those finding a home. There are a number of suggestions in this thread as to who Amedeo have spoken to. Some of the posters are clearly better informed than others, but nonetheless, most seem to be merely speculating. Personally, I'm genuinely excited, as I do believe we will see more than one new A380 operator. In my book, that's an excellent development. Nothing wrong with big twins, but they lack the presence and grace of the big quads in my book. And since I'm not a financial advisor for an airline, but an enthusiast, the more quads the better!
 
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:21 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 157):
She is. 800 seats all-Y at 32" pitch and 18.5" wide seat bottom? No problems

Rgds

Arggggh so MOL could try to push 900 on to her, wouldn't like to be dealing with that many appearing at border control
A wise man speaks because has something to say, a fool speaks because he has to say something - Plato
 
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 160):
Arggggh so MOL could try to push 900 on to her, wouldn't like to be dealing with that many appearing at border control

No, even MOL has to follow certifications limits which is 852 pax & 20 crew (or there abouts)

Gemuser
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 12:57 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 158):
Mark Lapidus seems to agree with my statement that Airbus projects the A380 way too luxurious, an image which does not fit into today's economic world anymore.

He confirms in the same article that they can do 18 in seats at 11-abreast:

"Amedeo says that an A380 main deck configured 10-abreast accommodates 18.5-19in wide seats, and provides “way more comfort” than the 10-abreast Boeing 777/777X, which requires 17in-wide seats. Amedeo is confident it can retain superior comfort levels event at 11-abreast on the A380 main deck, as it can accommodates 18in seats in this layout."
 
trex8
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:05 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 162):
"Amedeo says that an A380 main deck configured 10-abreast accommodates 18.5-19in wide seats, and provides “way more comfort” than the 10-abreast Boeing 777/777X, which requires 17in-wide seats. Amedeo is confident it can retain superior comfort levels event at 11-abreast on the A380 main deck, as it can accommodates 18in seats in this layout."

Short of aisles so narrow you cant walk down except turned with your body turned 90 degress and even with some resculpturing of the cabin walls I have trouble seeing how this will happen.
 
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speedbored
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:09 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 163):
Short of aisles so narrow you cant walk down except turned with your body turned 90 degress and even with some resculpturing of the cabin walls I have trouble seeing how this will happen.

Why? The A380 cabin is 21' 5" (i.e 257") wide. 11x18" seats would take up 198" of that, leaving 59" for aisles, making each aisle 29.5" wide. Many aircraft I've been on have significantly narrower aisles than that.

Even allowing for 3 extra arm rests, there's still more than enough room for 2 perfectly wide enough aisles.
 
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:22 pm

Quoting trex8 (Reply 163):
Short of aisles so narrow you cant walk down except turned with your body turned 90 degress and even with some resculpturing of the cabin walls I have trouble seeing how this will happen.

Raising the floor, the lower seat row is not at the broadest part of the fuselage, you could also raise only the window row or sculpture the side wall. As the fuselage of the A380 is nearly a meter wider than the fuselage of the B777, sculpturing the side walls could do a lot for the A380. 94 cm or 36 inches, gives you the same aisles width as in the B777, one 18 inch seat at 20 inch with armrest and 1,6 inch more space for the ten other seats compared to the B777.
Or 36 inch gives you 3 inch thicker side walls, the same aisle width, one 18+2 inch seat and 1 inch more for each of the other ten seats compared to the B777-X..

[Edited 2014-02-22 07:46:31]
 
brindabella
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:44 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111):
That's a smart move IMO. The current A380 is way too luxurious, an image which dates from the early 2000's. It does not fit into today's economic world anymore; the A380 is very spacious and Airbus should use the space to squash in as many seats as they can.

Emirates was pushing 11-abreast in the early A380 days, but Airbus rejected the idea.

Hi Karel,

problem is "no free lunches", IMHO.

I know many people who have to fly, but just don't want to be reminded, as it basically scares them silly.
For them a B777 is good; the B747 is better & the A380 is best of all; they can pretend they are not in an aluminium tube at some ridiculous height above Terra Firma at some preposterous speed.
For them, the A380 will always be preferred.

However i wonder if some of the EK premium, for instance, will start to leak once it is "cattle class" in Economy, like any other airliner.

cheers Bill
Billy
 
astuteman
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:32 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 164):
Why? The A380 cabin is 21' 5" (i.e 257") wide. 11x18" seats would take up 198" of that, leaving 59" for aisles, making each aisle 29.5" wide. Many aircraft I've been on have significantly narrower aisles than that.

But it's only 249" wide at deck level, 8" narrower than you describe.
And the seats need armrests too.
11-across requires 14 armrests. If they are 2" across, that takes 28" away, leaving only 23" for 2 aisles, which is clearly not enough.
1 1/2" armrests which would take 21", leaving 30" for the aisles, which is still too small.

I'd say another 6" of space would be required to allow 11-across at 18" with 1 1/2" armrests and 18" aisles.
That may be possible with some imaginative "sculpturing".
As you point out, the cabin is a lot wider higher up. It's at deck level that the issue exists

Rgds
 
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speedbored
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
It's at deck level that the issue exists

I would disagree. Feet are a lot narrower than arses. Many aircraft, especially small regionals have seats where the seat cushion and armrest overhang the edge of the floor and project out into the curvature of the cabin.

I'm sure that Airbus and Amedeo would not be saying that it would fit if they had not already worked out how to do it.
 
trex8
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:45 pm

They have 20 in aisles now and the 2 seat units if the center 4 are 42 in, the triple units on the side 62in. I could see getting maybe 4in each side more by raising the bum level to almost window height. Which brings on another issue. But 18 in seats 11 across? What's the minimum aisle width you are allowed? See page 72
http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi...ata/AC/Airbus-AC-A380-20131201.pdf
Even a 737 has a minimum 20 in aisle
http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/commercial/airports/acaps/737sec2.pdf

[Edited 2014-02-22 09:50:36]
 
astuteman
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:51 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 168):
I'm sure that Airbus and Amedeo would not be saying that it would fit if they had not already worked out how to do it

That would seem reasonable.
I'm just trying to work out how it might be done. I don't think it's quite as simple as your opening comment implied, though.

Quoting trex8 (Reply 169):
They have 20 in aisles now and the 2 seat units if the center 4 are 42 in, the triple units on the side 62in.

There's a "double armrest" in the centre of the ACAP configuration, and I believe the deck is actually wider than the dimensions shown by a small amount.

As I posited earlier, I think they need to find 6" or so if they go for 1.5" armrests.
How they find that is the question.
Is it, as Speedbored suggests, to cramp the foot space, and fetch the outboard armrests hard up against the sidewall?
There is a LOT of space outboard of the armrests on current configurations

Rgds
 
waly777
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
I'd say another 6" of space would be required to allow 11-across at 18" with 1 1/2" armrests and 18" aisles. That may be possible with some imaginative "sculpturing". As you point out, the cabin is a lot wider higher up. It's at deck level that the issue exists

I agree with you, 18" @ 11 abreast without armrests will leave tiny aisles. I'm guessing the 18" seat mentioned by Amedeo includes armrests as part of the calculation, except airbus has agreed to move the main cabin deck to accommodate this. Though wouldn't this make the windows quite low for the pax?
The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
 
tortugamon
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:21 pm

I see taking the end armrests and putting them on the cabin wall. Ditching the middle double armrest but when you add a seat you will need that arm rest back. Shrinking the aisles down to closer to 17. Shrinking 18.5 seats to 18 adds 10" and that should get you to 16" added. Just need to find two more and some of that could come from floor raising.

tortugamon
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:55 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 164):
The A380 cabin is 21' 5" (i.e 257") wide.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 167):
But it's only 249" wide at deck level, 8" narrower than you describe.

Lapidus earlier added Airbus can raise the floor a bit.

Quote:
Lapidus also expects to maintain comfort levels by raising the floor under the seats on the main deck to boost available width, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...end-airbus-jumbo-sale-drought.html
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EPA001
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:13 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 173):
Lapidus earlier added Airbus can raise the floor a bit.

That would make sense and enables them to take more advantage of the interior width on the main deck.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:55 pm

Quoting waly777 (Reply 171):
airbus has agreed to move the main cabin deck to accommodate this.
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 173):
Lapidus earlier added Airbus can raise the floor a bit.

This all looks a bit inelegant.

Raising the floor structurally does not sound trivial.

Raising it just for the outboard seats would look odd.

Raising it with infill adds weight (but may provide good solution for the previously-problematic wiring routing as a by-product!). Actually that may be a win-win solution, if there is an ease of production benefit as well as a capacity benefit.
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:09 pm

Raising the floor will add a bit weight but should be fairly compensated by the revenue of the 30 additional Y seats.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Stitch
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:35 pm

But isn't the floor designed to be placed so that the seat bottoms are positioned to make maximum use of the available cabin width?

How does raising it make it possible to add more seats? And how does that affect head and shoulder room of the window seats? I am reminded of the graphic showing the interiors of the A330 and 787 where the top of the head and outboard shoulder of the window seat customer was in the wall of the A330.  
 
trex8
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:43 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 177):
But isn't the floor designed to be placed so that the seat bottoms are positioned to make maximum use of the available cabin width?

How does raising it make it possible to add more seats? And how does that affect head and shoulder room of the window seats? I am reminded of the graphic showing the interiors of the A330 and 787 where the top of the head and outboard shoulder of the window seat customer was in the wall of the A330.

Someone pointed out that due to the 2 deck design the floor if the lower deck is not the widest point if the lower deck. I wanna know where the windows would be in relation to the seat on this elevated floor scenario!
 
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KarelXWB
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 177):
But isn't the floor designed to be placed so that the seat bottoms are positioned to make maximum use of the available cabin width?

A380 maximum cabin width is 257" versus 248" at floor level, there is a bit wiggle room.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 177):
How does raising it make it possible to add more seats?

It's not about adding more seats, you can squash in 17" seats @ 11-abreast if you want. Raising the floor will make wider 18" possible, that's all.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Finn350
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 177):
But isn't the floor designed to be placed so that the seat bottoms are positioned to make maximum use of the available cabin width?

Not in case of A380 (photo courtesy of Airbus). If the floor under the outer seats is raised a bit, it allows wider seats. The windows are relatively high at the moment so that should not be a problem either.

 
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Ab345
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:43 pm

Karel not to sound as a groupie or anything but you are like Q from James Bond. Whatever the subject you have got info or props up your sleeve   

Seriously though would the lowering affect the cargo hold?
 
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Stitch
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:00 pm

Quoting Ab345 (Reply 181):
Seriously though would the lowering affect the cargo hold?

They're raising the floor, not lowering it. And it would be via a "false floor" - as in another floor placed on top of the existing one with a gap between them.

So the holds will be unaffected.
 
A388
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:01 pm

Any word on who might be leasing (part of) these 20 A380's? I still think TK is the only new airline who might find a need for the A380.

A388
 
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Ab345
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 182):

Got it Stitch   Makes sense that way
 
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Stitch
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:10 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 183):
Any word on who might be leasing (part of) these 20 A380's?

Official word from Amedeo's CEO is they do not have a customer under contract, but I would expect they're in firm and final negotiations with a few.
 
A388
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:20 pm

Stitch, I agree with you. That is my thinking too. A leasing firm isn't going to order an aircraft if it doesn't have airlines who will lease those aircraft. It's not like these aircraft are cheap to buy  

A388
 
XT6Wagon
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 182):

I'm not entirely sure its required, as the outer seats don't HAVE to have the legs at the edge. Though passenger comfort and wieght might make taller floor beams an easier sell than custom seats with the non-trivial crash survivablity requirements.
 
art
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:46 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 179):
A380 maximum cabin width is 257" versus 248" at floor level, there is a bit wiggle room.

Looking at the photo it appears to me that you would need to lift the floor 1+ metres to harness those extra 9" of width. Gaining 9" by lifting the floor is not on, is it? I don't see how you can get anywhere near 9".
 
tortugamon
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting art (Reply 188):
Looking at the photo it appears to me that you would need to lift the floor 1+ metres to harness those extra 9" of width. Gaining 9" by lifting the floor is not on, is it? I don't see how you can get anywhere near 9".

By my calculations they only need to gain about 2" of width and that should be possible with moving the floor up just a couple inches.


tortugamon
 
JHwk
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:33 am

One thing that I haven't seen anybody mention is Amedeo has two benefits in this process: they arguably will get more attractive pricing today, for the cost of a deposit, and more importantly, they will generate a market for the Doric frames as they come off lease.

By jump-starting the process before EK frames start coming off the market, they remove much of the uncertainty for their broader asset portfolio.

If Airbus limited the deposit requirements to only sort out the two-year lead items, they gain by maintaining production rate. Scheduling of the new airframes seems to be a real challenge right now. This process helps Airbus risk-share production rates, and leads to a more stable market for the 380, with or without a re-engine.
 
astuteman
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:43 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 189):
By my calculations they only need to gain about 2" of width and that should be possible with moving the floor up just a couple inches.

The one thing the A380 seems to have is a lot of headroom.

I can't help thinking that Airbus were profligate with this design.
If you can fit 11-across at 18" that easily, and lift the floor by some amount as well without problems, then the A380 was designed too big, even for its brief IMO

Rgds
 
NAV20
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:45 am

Quoting JHwk (Reply 190):
and more importantly, they will generate a market for the Doric frames as they come off lease.


Oddly enough, JHwk, whether there is a market for the aircraft when they come off lease is unlikely to be overly important to Doric/Amedeo. They form a separate company for each aeroplane, and then sell shares to investors. They pay those investors quite a good rate of return, but at the end of the lease, it won't much matter to them whether a given aeroplane sells or not - since it belongs to the shareholders in the owning company, not Doric/Amedeo. As far as I can tell, if it doesn't sell, and only fetches scrap value, it's the shareholders who will lose most of their money.

"The companies issued shares in Doric Nimrod Air Three Ltd. in London today at 100 pence, with an initial market value of 220 million pounds ($334 million), according to a statement. The shares opened at 107.5 pence and rose as high as 109.5 pence.

"DNA3 is the duo’s third offering of shares tied to the ownership and stream of leasing revenues for the double-decker A380. Investors buying DNA3 will get quarterly dividends of 8.25 percent a year, based on the 100-pence issue price. Once the plane comes off lease, they will get the proceeds when the aircraft is sold."


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...doric-ahead-of-emirates-lease.html
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Unflug
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:49 am

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 192):
As far as I can tell, if it doesn't sell, and only fetches scrap value, it's the shareholders who will lose most of their money.

Well, since they already have their money back at the end of the lease, they can't lose that much  
 
tortugamon
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:21 am

Quoting astuteman (Reply 191):
The one thing the A380 seems to have is a lot of headroom.

I can't help thinking that Airbus were profligate with this design.
If you can fit 11-across at 18" that easily, and lift the floor by some amount as well without problems, then the A380 was designed too big, even for its brief IMO

I don't disagree. An aircraft that was designed around a maximized 10-abreast lower deck and an 8-abreast upper deck with little excess space and an ~8,400nm mission needn't carry these excess dimensions and capability of the actual A388.

11-abreast is a solid step in the right direction and it is inevitable IMO. I will be surprised if it is not widely adopted.

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 192):
As far as I can tell, if it doesn't sell, and only fetches scrap value, it's the shareholders who will lose most of their money.

The investors should be made whole by the end of the lease. The proceeds from the resale seem to be the source of the lion's share of Doric/Amedeo's profit. Certainly they will have overhead costs not covered by the leased aircraft so it won't all be profit.

tortugamon
 
Planesmart
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:02 am

At end of lease, for tax purposes, it may suit some investors not to have a final payment. Such investors are generally grouped in the same syndicate.

There are a range of final payments the operator has to make, not unlike a vehicle lease, if you return it with more miles than contracted, or if damaged, like stone chipped paintwork. In the case of a commercial aircraft, it's based on hours and condition.

Depending on the tax structure of the syndicate, ownership at the end of the lease could revert to the leasing company, operator or even manufacturer. In vehicle fleet sales, leasing and rentals (and increasingly with aircraft sales and leases), the manufacturer has first right of refusal to buyback at prescribed prices.

They do this to influence the price and supply of used, and therefore, the price and demand for new.

Extending leases beyond the original term to the same operator rarely involve syndicates. Usually this is a direct leasor / leasee arrangement.
 
Ruscoe
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:47 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 194):
The investors should be made whole by the end of the lease.

I don't think so.

Investors are getting a 9% or thereabouts return on their Capital investment. By the end of the lease, they may very well
have recovered an amount of money equivalent to their investment, but what about the return of the capital? Normally
what investors get is their return on investment plus they get their capital back. The sale at the end of the lease is their
capital back, so depends heavily on the residual value of the 380, which is unknown. Of course there are other things
that can be done such as re-leasing the residual, so it is not all doom and gloom, but it is risky. This is why they can get
twice the current bank rate.
The higher return on their capital reflects the higher risk. If Doric or Amedeo could attract investors with this level of risk
for 5% they would.
The only Caveat I would put on this is that I haven't seen the details of the lease agreement, but I strongly doubt, the
investors will have recovered their Capital by the end of the lease, they will only get the equivalent of a very good interest return,
until the frame is sold.



Quoting planesmart (Reply 195):
At end of lease, for tax purposes, it may suit some investors not to have a final payment.

Not unless the tax rate is over 100%, which I understand is possible in some European countries, but releasing the
residual may be more attractive then taking the cash.

Ruscoe
 
NAV20
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 196):
The only Caveat I would put on this is that I haven't seen the details of the lease agreement, but I strongly doubt, the
investors will have recovered their Capital by the end of the lease, they will only get the equivalent of a very good interest return, until the frame is sold.

Exactly right, in my view, Ruscoe. And much better explained than my earlier effort.

Yes indeed - investors tend to appreciate getting their capital back, as well as the interest!

I think the basic problem is that 12-year leases are just plain too short. As a surveyor/town planner, I was once very much involved in building CBD property. The 'conventional' lease term was 21 years, with rent reviews every five years. That's how long it takes for investors to get their initial investment back, as well as the mere rental. A 12-year lease on anything - building OR aeroplane - is utterly inadequate in that area.

Every sign, though, that Doric/Amadeo's clients are 'falling for it.' As the old saying goes, 'there's one born every minute.....'

[Edited 2014-02-24 05:17:56]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 820
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Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting Nav20 (Reply 197):
A 12-year lease on anything - building OR aeroplane - is utterly inadequate in that area.

What about cars?
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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BaconButty
Posts: 820
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:42 pm

Amedeo Firms Up 20x A380's (Part 1)

Mon Feb 24, 2014 1:43 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 196):
The sale at the end of the lease is their
capital back, so depends heavily on the residual value of the 380, which is unknown.

As I've posted a few times already, the aircraft are only c. 60% paid for by shareholder capital, the remainder by debt serviced out of the lease fees (and paid down some 18 months before the leases expire). Of course, the new arrangements may be completely different anyway.
Down with that sort of thing!

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