Quoting tortugamon (Reply 98): I don't think this should be confused for 14 A380s but rather their 6 A380s and 8 A350s that they already have on order. It is poorly written and got me too.

It is extremely poorly written. Maybe they tried to say that Asiana will take delivery of 6 A380s and 8 A350s through 2018, that would perhaps make some sense.

Quoting brindabella (Reply 81): The greatest threat that I can see is that Amedeo may have made a substantial mistake by declaring to the world that the order is "speculative"; I think that this is a very unsound thing for Amedeo to have done.

Amedeo may have been required to list this order as speculative under Irish law as they do not have customers already signed up.

Quoting art (Reply 82): I can understand that Amedeo have placed firm orders for 20 and have paid deposits on those. Unless they have customers lined up how do they know when they need deliveries?

This could be addressed with flexible delivery positions with Airbus.

Quoting art (Reply 82): Do they have access to enough capital to be able to take deliveries if they have not placed the aircraft?

They had enough to make the deposits on the MoU and the sales contract. They also have had little problem securing tens of billions in commercial loans for their sale-and-leaseback deals when they were part of Doric Gmbh,

Quoting art (Reply 82): I can see how they raise capital to buy an A380 from an airline and lease it back to the airline but raising the funds to buy an A380 without having a guaranteed lessee seems a completely different ball game to me.

That success in raising funds for sale and lease-back could improve their chances for pure leasing.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 86): (Asiana more than doubling their A380 order) is one possibility that no one seems to have considered.

It's more that we're not sure what Jon Ostrower at the WSJ is trying to say as his article on Asiana's purchasing plans was not very clear.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 110): They also have had little problem securing tens of billions in commercial loans for their sale-and-leaseback deals when they were part of Doric Gmbh,

Lets hope the new stand alone company gets to carry the faith and credit from its former union.

Quoting par13del (Reply 111): Lets hope the new stand alone company gets to carry the faith and credit from its former union.

The management team is evidently the same, so they have a solid track record.

Quoting goosebayguy (Reply 27): It might be that there are a few Airlines who can only utilise 2 A380's

If you only can use 2 A380, you don't need A380. Far better to get more of a smaller frame, as the costs to run a fleet of just two planes is going to be huge.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 106): As it is the B787 program is pushing forward over 20 billion USD deferred production cost. Every frame produced is still adding to that number as it is. If the B787 has production break even in 2015 the program can start to pay down that mountain. We can all guess how many frames that will take.

To quote an old lady waving her arms in a commercial, "Thats not how this works. Thats not how any of this works."

The "20billion" is a BS number. Its arrived at by counting things that don't count. Its arrived at by counting things two, maybe even three times. The author of that article needs to be treated to some education. A factory is in fact, not a production cost. R&D is in fact, not a production cost. If you pay for a part, you also do not get to count its cost when its installed in a plane. If you buy another company, you do not get to count the cost of the company, The cost of the part it made, and the cost of the part YET AGAIN when its installed in a plane. Yet, somehow Newspaper math arrives at that.

God Help Airbus if this guy ever tries to do a writeup on them. Might hit counting the same expense 4 times or more with such creative accounting. Oooh maybe 5 or 6 times as he gets confused with the whole currency thing.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 104): God Help Airbus if this guy ever tries to do a writeup on them. Might hit counting the same expense 4 times or more with such creative accounting. Oooh maybe 5 or 6 times as he gets confused with the whole currency thing.

No need to worry, XT6Wagon. We don't need another author for those things you've listed. We've got A-net ...  

Rgds

Quoting Stitch (Reply 101): Quoting art (Reply 82):Do they have access to enough capital to be able to take deliveries if they have not placed the aircraft? They had enough to make the deposits on the MoU and the sales contract. They also have had little problem securing tens of billions in commercial loans for their sale-and-leaseback deals when they were part of Doric Gmbh,

How big is the deposit given on ordering an A380 - $10 million? Less? Peanuts compared with the capital needed to gain ownership of the asset.

When an airline does a sell and lease back deal there is no risk of the lessor buying the asset and not having a lessee for that aircraft. Not so if a leasing company buys an aircraft in the hope of finding a lessee.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 101): Quoting brindabella (Reply 81): The greatest threat that I can see is that Amedeo may have made a substantial mistake by declaring to the world that the order is "speculative"; I think that this is a very unsound thing for Amedeo to have done. Amedeo may have been required to list this order as speculative under Irish law as they do not have customers already signed up.

Hi Stitch,

as per my reply to Nav at [89] above.

cheers Bill

Quoting art (Reply 106): How big is the deposit given on ordering an A380 - $10 million? Less?

If you believe some financial analysts, it's as little as $500,000.   

Quoting art (Reply 106): Peanuts compared with the capital needed to gain ownership of the asset.

Sure, but Amedeo took what, seven months to firm this contract? Does it not stand to reason that they spent at least some of that time putting together a business case to financiers to secure said funding? And that they have now firmed the order that this business plan appears to have worked?

Amedeo's management team financed two dozen A380s via sale-and-leasebacks. If we use a USD 200 million average, that's almost USD 5 billion and half of that - USD 2.5 billion - was secured via commercial bank loans. They've also secured over a billion more via commercial bank loan to finance EK and CX 777s, as well as the odd A340, A330, A320 and A319.

So they have a track record in the industry and with certain lenders. It does not strike me as unreasonable that some of those lenders were willing to finance a "speculative" purchase.

Quoting art (Reply 106): When an airline does a sell and lease back deal there is no risk of the lessor buying the asset and not having a lessee for that aircraft. Not so if a leasing company buys an aircraft in the hope of finding a lessee.

True, but again, I would expect Amedeo identified potential customers even before they decided to form the company and sign an MoU with Airbus for 20 frames. I would also expect they then spent the seven months after signing the MoU continuing to talk to their initial customer base as well as identify and work with new potential customers before firming said contract.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 108): True, but again, I would expect Amedeo identified potential customers even before they decided to form the company and sign an MoU with Airbus for 20 frames. I would also expect they then spent the seven months after signing the MoU continuing to talk to their initial customer base as well as identify and work with new potential customers before firming said contract.

The Amedeo deal has been in the works since at least early-2011.

From an interview with Lapidus that I posted in an earlier thread:

Our business model is not about speculative aircraft orders and current sale-and-leaseback opportunities with airlines provide sufficient business for us. Having said that, we told Airbus that we are interested in ILFC’s A380 positions and would be pleased to hear back, even if at the back of the queue in 2016 or 2017 because I am certain it is not long before new A380 orders will start piling up.

http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...der-mark-lapidus-talks-a380s-49016

This interview was published on April 4, 2011. It clearly indicates that Doric was already then working on a "speculative" A380 order. I think it is reasonable to assume that they have done their homework in the three years since.

Their first delivery is due in 2016, which means that the production of parts for the first Amedeo frames will need to start already this year. I cannot imagine this being the case without Amedeo having some pretty good ideas about where it will be placing these frames and from what sources it will finance them.

From a more recent article:

Lapidus, a native of Russia who emigrated to the West with his family when he was 17, works with a team of about a dozen other people at London-based Doric, criss-crossing the globe to speak with airline customers and investors about his plan. He’s seeking interest particularly from private equity to invest in the equity portion of the aircraft financings, and said he spends even more time courting investors than he does airlines.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...end-airbus-jumbo-sale-drought.html

Quoting art (Reply 106): How big is the deposit given on ordering an A380 - $10 million? Less? Peanuts compared with the capital needed to gain ownership of the asset.

$1/2M deposits have been known for orders placed from a long, long way out, merely as a placeholder.
But I suspect you can be pretty sure that stage payments will absolutely be progressively required if the OEM is going to proceed with key cost-driving milestones.
By the time it comes to take delivery of the aircraft, the bulk of the monies for the airframe will have to have been paid.

Quoting art (Reply 106): Not so if a leasing company buys an aircraft in the hope of finding a lessee

What percentage of aircraft purchased by lessors do you think are purchased before a lessee is lined up?

Quoting brindabella (Reply 81): For a Leasing firm to place "speculative" orders for A320/737s is really ho-hum. Barely any risk at all. Placing orders for A350/787 would be a greater risk in that neither has yet reached the level of operational reliability/customer satisfaction enjoyed by the narrowbodies. Also the units are far pricier ... greater reward=greater risk!

I don't think this is an unreasonable summation, Brindabella.

Mirroring the market in general, the bigger and more expensive the airframe, the more limited the market for leasing it

Rgds

I fully expected this order to be firmed.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10): I think the A380 crew may be getting a little extra vacation in 2015.

A380 production rate will not be reduced in the next four years.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 53): Target customers are those “large network carriers – the world’s top 10 airlines - who do not have the A380”.

Last November, Tim Clark also said he can name 10 airlines who could operate the A380. This of course does not guarantee anything, although it means there is potential.

A lessor will take many financial risks away, I expect a few new operators to jump aboard.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 62): I think Transaero is fully on board. They recently confirmed it publicly and they have seating thought through, I think they are 'a go'. I am personally excited to see an airline put 652 seats in an A380.

Their first MSN has been allocated recently and should be in pre-FAL already.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 62): You will have to find me the source that says that EK's order is scheduled for deliveries up to 2032/2033. This would have to be a first that an airline booked deliveries 20+ years in advance. Call me skeptical.

The 777X is for replacement and the last 77W should leave the fleet in 2027 I believe. Therefore, we are talking about deliveries between 2021 - 2027.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60): When Amedeo states that it is a "speculative order", they mean they have ordered the planes without a customer to lease them.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60): ILFC, GECAS and other lessors currently have "speculative" orders on their books for the A350, 777 and 787 as not every single frame they have on order had an attached customer.

  

Quoting chiad (Reply 80): With secured orders to last until 2020 it's enough for a possible A380NEO to about. IMHO the A380 will be around for as long as the B747 has endured with as many orders. Remember that the B747-100 program had "only" some 200 orders (with all its different versions). The B747-200 program had almost 400 orders I think.

Agreed.

There will be more A380 orders in the next few months/years (and a few cancellations too). I believe the current A380 will secure at least 350 firm orders, and a A380neo can do the same figure again in the 2020-2030 timeframe.

Quoting racercoup (Reply 72): Let's see 50 mostly replacements

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 94): ??? Mostly replacements? Do you have any source? Right now, EK has not even 50 A 380s and you think all the additional 50 airframes are for mostly replacement only?

25 are for expansion and 25 are for replacement.

Mind you, EK will need another 90 replacements in the 2020-2030 timeframe.

Quoting racercoup (Reply 72): I think Airbus is and was very worried, this program is so under water as to need a snorkel

For a niche aircraft, I'd say 6 years production is not something Airbus is very worried about.

Airbus is more worried about how to make the A380 attractive beyond 2020. Hence they are studying an re-engine program.

Quoting art (Reply 106): How big is the deposit given on ordering an A380 - $10 million? Less?

Air Austral paid $40 million deposit for their A380 order.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 109): Their first delivery is due in 2016, which means that the production of parts for the first Amedeo frames will need to start already this year. I cannot imagine this being the case without Amedeo having some pretty good ideas about where it will be placing these frames and from what sources it will finance them.

And I highly doubt Amedeo would firm 20 A380s without having at least 2 customers signed an initial contract.

Quoting ferpe (Reply 47): "The Amedeo CEO pushes for better utilization of the A380 cabin as a means to improve efficiency. In particular, he is in favor of the proposed 11-abreast layout in economy class. That would take typical A380 seating to 573 seats, compared to the current 550."

That's a smart move IMO. The current A380 is way too luxurious, an image which dates from the early 2000's. It does not fit into today's economic world anymore; the A380 is very spacious and Airbus should use the space to squash in as many seats as they can.

Emirates was pushing 11-abreast in the early A380 days, but Airbus rejected the idea.

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 99): Per the Airbus order and delivery spreadsheet Asiana has 30 A 350´ies on order.

True, but the article is just talking about their upcoming deliveries I believe.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 100): It is extremely poorly written. Maybe they tried to say that Asiana will take delivery of 6 A380s and 8 A350s through 2018, that would perhaps make some sense.

That is my interpretation as well.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111): Therefore, we are talking about deliveries between 2021 - 2027.

That is a timeline that I can believe.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111): Emirates was pushing 11-abreast in the early A380 days, but Airbus rejected the idea.

And now if you listen to EK its Airbus that is pushing the idea on them.   Its funny how these guys handle transition.

I agree that going to a 11-abreast is a great idea. I honestly don't understand why it has taken this long.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 112): I agree that going to a 11-abreast is a great idea. I honestly don't understand why it has taken this long.

India, That was the reason EK wanted higher density seating in the early frames. Turns out that it didn't matter since india never approved the A380 till recently.

Now Airbus wants 11Y in its comparisons as the A351 is stabbing the A380 in its back with very close per seat fuel burn and far better fleet flexibity. A380 still has industry best capitial cost per seat for a widebody, so it will remain good for EK, just I don't see why any airline would order a small fleet of A380 today unless its bad managment or bad management getting into "mines bigger than yours" contests.

With the A380 haters populating this forum, any excuse is ok to bash the plane and ridicule anyone buying it.
As a matter of fact, thereasoning is quite obvious: the domestic US market is about small or smallish modules with frequencies, and on international traffic, as the US has an impact that certainly up to their potential, the A380 won't fit.

It doesn't mean it won't work for quite a lot of potential customers .

In this respect, there are two ways of looking at the Amedeo order :
1/- They've lined up a few customers but won't reveal them until due contracts are signed, or...
2/- They have studied the future market and believe that international traffic growth will cause a buyers'market to bloom for the A380... and there are already signs of congestions in quite a few important gateways.
There is also the fact that we're seeing the birth of some affluent middle classes in Asia / Pacific.

That's where the speculation is, and it's certainly not as far-fetched as you lot seem to be regarding it.
That's where in all probability the market research has led Amedeo.
To think that these people are out of their minds and wits smacks as very myopic.

There was a lot of discussion about seat-mile costs... suffice to say that over 400 passengers, an airline would need to put two big twins on that route, where just one 380 would carry upwards of 650 passengers ( possibility).
So where is the economy of scale the big twin would bring ?
Emirates is successfully flying their A380s to MAN and its likes. That shoiuld tell a lot on their thinking. After all, in a few years, they will be the largest airline in the world... and as a passenger, I know that on a future journey, if I can find an A380 to fly, it will be, by very far, my choice.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35): And when EK firms, they'll have two-thirds of the current 777X order book. And yet I don't see many folks pointing to that as a bad sign for Boeing or the 777X program.

Bad comparison. The Ek percentage of the 777x order book will go down overtime. Meanwhile Ek's position in the A380 order book continues to rise.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 114): 1/- They've lined up a few customers but won't reveal them until due contracts are signed

I suspect this is indeed the case. This order has been rumored for a while and I am sure they have been very diligent in lining up the orders even if this is said to be 'speculative'.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 114): 2/- They have studied the future market and believe that international traffic growth will cause a buyers'market to bloom for the A380

I imagine they aren't the only ones doing this research and completing the calculations yet no new operators have been added in a couple years. And with a couple existing operators delaying and reducing their purchases it does make you wonder what is Amedeo seeing that airlines like LH, VS, and AF don't and when will this bloom will happen? Surely GECAS, ILC, and ILFC are doing the same research. I think Amedeo is willing to take on more risk.

Indeed they could just have a business plan that brings cost effective access to the smaller airline and better reseal value for the institutional investor.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 113): India, That was the reason EK wanted higher density seating in the early frames. Turns out that it didn't matter since india never approved the A380 till recently.

I am sure that has something to do with it.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 116): I imagine they aren't the only ones doing this research and completing the calculations yet no new operators have been added in a couple years.

It doesn't mean that this situation will last longer.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 116): what is Amedeo seeing that airlines like LH, VS, and AF don't and when will this bloom will happen?

Problem is Anet is stuck on a few ideas with little backing : Contrarily to the common wisdom, Airfrance is quite happy with the plane. It has the best load factor on the fleet, therefore is a money-maker. It's just that the airline is for the moment concentrating on financial results, therefore has postponed - remark : postponed - a further investment on the A380 fleet. We could talk a lot on this subject in two or three years-time.

What Amedeo is doing is litterally putting their money - lots of it - where their mouth is, something all the posters on this forum are certainly not doing, hence the very cheap shots against people who know more about their business than we all do. A wee bit of humility would not hurt a few posters her, methinks.

It's also a matter of scale : the acknowledged hub system is based on small to smallish modules (or small to big modules , AFKL, LH type ). Has it dawned on posters here that the Emirates - and soon Etihad - model is about a hub catered for big to big modules, very often A380 to to A380 transfers, with very high load factors ?
This situation is getting better and better and, just looking at the EK network, it becomes obvious that the so-called "thin" point-to-point traffic will be done with 7779X (again contrarily to Anet wisdom which only sees A332, 788 or 789...).

And there are still some who don't see why the A380 is flying   .

Quoting Pihero (Reply 117): It doesn't mean that this situation will last longer.

It can last a lot longer especially if Airbus doesn't launch a meaningful A380 improvement package.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 117): Contrarily to the common wisdom, Airfrance is quite happy with the plane.

So why did the CEO say its not a fit, that they are trying to come up with what to do with the final two models, and that they may swap for other articles? I think I am falling into 'common wisdom here' and maybe I haven't heard the full story. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...us-goals-further-out-of-reach.html

I believe the final two are just delayed untll 2016 but it would be interesting if AF is one of those that instead of swapping to different models they swap to the neo.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 117): A wee bit of humility would not hurt a few posters her, methinks.

No doubt, but they are also the ones with all of the information! I am sure they have spoken to dozens of fleet managers and have a good gauge on demand and that is why I agreed with your first point.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 117): Has it dawned on posters here that the Emirates - and soon Etihad - model is about a hub catered for big to big modules, very often A380 to to A380 transfers, with very high load factors ?

and SQ and maybe QR soon for that matter as well. Its not inconceivable that where EK is today (in size not in orders) is where EY/QR is in 10-15 years. In fact EY had as many passengers this year as EK had just 10 years ago and they have a ton of aircraft on order.

EK has done their growth and their market share grab when the A380 is the most economical aircraft in the sky. That is not going to be the case very soon and I think that is why some have a negative outlook. But for the ME3 it may come down to just being happy with as much profitable revenue that they can grab and grow before the other one does and in that kind of arms race the A380 is essential.

I am anxious to learn about the neo specs to see if it can regain the edge or if it will just have to bank on a ME3 battle.

tortugamon

Quoting racercoup (Reply 115): Bad comparison. The Ek percentage of the 777x order book will go down overtime. Meanwhile Ek's position in the A380 order book continues to rise.

Why should that be? How does the percentage of the order book go down from zero?

I did expect EK to order the B777-X.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118): So why did the CEO say its not a fit, that they are trying to come up with what to do with the final two models, and that they may swap for other articles? I think I am falling into 'common wisdom here' and maybe I haven't heard the full story.

Load factors are not the problem for Air France. Their CEO explained the company is having trouble flying their A380s to the airports they initially wanted.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118): So why did the CEO say its not a fit, that they are trying to come up with what to do with the final two models, and that they may swap for other articles?

Don't you think it's kind of funny that an article written six months ago hasn't been followed by any meaningful decision for or against the paper news ?
I forgot : the pessimistic (LOL ! ) view must be the right one.   

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118): EK has done their growth and their market share grab when the A380 is the most economical aircraft in the sky. That is not going to be the case very soon and I think that is why some have a negative outlook.

Emirates are well on their way to become the world's largest airline and I, for one, do not see it not happening : their economic model is the most predatory the air transport business has seen. That model will dominate the EUR-ASIA, EUR-AFRICA, ASIA-AFRICA market, thanks to the A380.The long thin routes to Soutrh America are going - already are - to be served with 777s.
I also notice that the latest orders for the A380 do not mention a NEO version, which will - and on this I agree with you - certainly see some improvement, but that will be comparable to the 747 going CF6 after the JT3.
A last remark, if I may, is that all those modules used by EK are used well below their max design range for most of their flights, which means that they could use all their max load carrying capabilities on all but a very few of their sectors... and in this case, a single A380 beats any combination of *bigtwins* on the same sector. Think of it : over 400 passengers, you'd need two of them. You could of course beef up the seat configuration but you lose your main selling point, which is comfort.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2): Amadeo have ordered 20 A380-800s with no customers already signed up to lease them, so it is a "speculative" order - an engagement in a business transaction involving considerable risk, but offering the chance of large gain.

How could it be a large gain ?

If an airline is ready to pay a lot for leasing an/several A380, I'm sure all the established lessors would fight for this, and since there are plenty of slots available, I don't understand where "more money" can be made by firming up now.

There is not a single price to purchase a new civil aircraft. There is a starting price, and then agreed milestones. At each milestone there are options, which are influential in determining the end price. For example, the size, timing and currency of payments. Firming earlier and/or larger deposits, usually translates to a larger discount.

In the old days of 707's and DC8's, deposits involved money changing hands. These days, they are usually guarantees of payment from financial institutions, until there is a tangible aircraft taking shape.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 111): To think that these people are out of their minds and wits smacks as very US-centric.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111): That's a smart move IMO. The current A380 is way too luxurious, an image which dates from the early 2000's. It does not fit into today's economic world anymore; the A380 is very spacious and Airbus should use the space to squash in as many seats as they can.

Does fly in the face of the a.net mantra that carriers are using space and premium packages on the A380 to make money, pax are choosing the more prestigious a/c and the 777W and others are being used to cram in the lower income pax.

If as you mention times are changing, I have yet to see it much less it be acknowledged in respect to the A380.
I'm more inclined to believe that IF and thats IF Airbus is now actively encouraging more pax being loaded into the A380 it has something to do with their internal workings - maybe the A350 -.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 121): Don't you think it's kind of funny that an article written six months ago hasn't been followed by any meaningful decision for or against the paper news ?

I don't know when the deadline is for when they have to make the decision nor do we know where they may be in the negotiation process for potentially new aircraft. Not being pessimistic or optimistic I have no reason to think that their view has changed in the four+ months since the CEO spoke.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 121): a single A380 beats any combination of *bigtwins* on the same sector.

Two 777s carry ~175 more passengers (even with 11-abreast in the A380), more than twice the cargo, and twice the frequency. If the timing slots are close together meaning that the two 777s leave approximately the same time and if the sector doesn't have large cargo opportunities than I agree with you but I don't think that is every case. If my memory serves me you and I had this same conversation when the AF article came out so I don't mean to re-hash it here.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 121): I also notice that the latest orders for the A380 do not mention a NEO version

I believe 25 of EK's order is for replacement using the current model but EK would like to have the updated engine for the other half but I imagine this is not firm yet until they have an engine agreement.

Its very difficult to overvalue EK's interest in the A380. It is fundamental to their success and I am sure it will be a mainstay in their fleet for decades to come. I just think the size of the global fleet will heavily depend on the success of the neo; I think it has to be better than the twins because for other carriers, A380 ownership is not so assured.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 120): Their CEO explained the company is having trouble flying their A380s to the airports they initially wanted.

Yeah, I read they were having particular trouble in China. I imagine these artificial barriers will fall just like they did in India.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 125): Two 777s carry ~175 more passengers (even with 11-abreast in the A380), more than twice the cargo, and twice the frequency.

If demand is there, you can also put two A380s on that route.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 122): How could it be a large gain?

Monthly rents for the A380 can approach USD 2 million. Amedeo's current A380 portfolio brings in the neighborhood of USD 40 million a month and continues to expand as EK adds A380s.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 122): If an airline is ready to pay a lot for leasing an/several A380, I'm sure all the established lessors would fight for this, and since there are plenty of slots available, I don't understand where "more money" can be made by firming up now.

The established lessors don't have any confidence in the A380. The only one who ordered was ILFC and they eventually cancelled.

Amedeo, on the other hand, has made a very good business buying A380s and leasing them back to their original owners. While it is true this is in general a "sure thing" compared to the speculative leasing they are now planning to engage in, Amedeo has far more experience and knowledge about leasing an A380 than any of the established lessors like ILFC or ALC do.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 125): Two 777s carry ~175 more passengers (even with 11-abreast in the A380), more than twice the cargo, and twice the frequency. I

1/- Twice the frequency won't work, because of slots generally speaking... and very soon because of congestion.
2/- You're keeping on argumenting about a comparison of available seats on two 777s vs one 380.What I'm saying is as soon as you've filled one 777, you will need another top carry your passengers, be they ten or 100, but in all probability not enough to make that second flight economically interesting.So where is the perceived superiority of the bigtwin ?
The same reasoning can be made in terms of efficiency : Are you so sure that 2 777s with 260 pax each can match the economics of one 380 with 520 ? ( In all costs, the 380 will beat the competition : half the crews, three quarters of the fuel....)

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111): 25 are for expansion and 25 are for replacement.

I don't think that EK ever said that. They said that the order would serve both expansion and replacement, but I don't recall them ever providing a breakdown. They probably don't know yet and will decide this only much later based on their needs of the moment. That is what I would do...

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 125): I believe 25 of EK's order is for replacement using the current model but EK would like to have the updated engine for the other half but I imagine this is not firm yet until they have an engine agreement.

I think it is the other way around. The replacement aircraft will be delivered from 2020 onward, and these are the ones for which EK would like to have an updated engine.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 126): If demand is there, you can also put two A380s on that route.

Or six in the case of EK's DXB-LHR on Sundays. I just checked their website and I can't believe what I am reading. Astonishing stuff. EK has found a way around slot restrictions.  

Quoting Pihero (Reply 128): So where is the perceived superiority of the bigtwin ?

The fuel burn figures that ferpe and others have posted are showing that the current A380 will lag on fuel burn without significant improvements. If the demand is 675 seats and if its daily demand but not just one departure time then it could be an A359 and an A351. If its 700 it could be two A351s. They each would have lower CASM than an A380 with more seats and more cargo. If the demand is 525 it could be 2 788s with more cargo and lower CASM and similar RASM or if their is hefty restrictions on slots and the demand is dependent on one time of day, 1 A380.   If its 1050 then its 2 A380s I know I am not going to convince you of this Pihero, I know your opinions on this. Just like CX wasn't convinced despite having two of their five 77Ws leaving within 30 minutes of each other to LHR or two of their three 77Ws leaving within 2.5 hours of each other to JFK.

What works for one airline may not work for another.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 128): Are you so sure that 2 777s with 260 pax each can match the economics of one 380 with 520 ? ( In all costs, the 380 will beat the competition : half the crews, three quarters of the fuel....)

In those seating arrangements the A380 will win every time. Not even close really. It depends on a lot of circumstances Pihero, we both know that. In EK configuration (364 vs 517) the numbers are much closer. RASM will benefit the A380 on premium mix and the A380 bump, CASM and cargo goes to the 77W. Sometimes RASM is more important than CASM.

But the whole picture can't be boiled down to just a couple figures like this even if we want them to.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 129): I think it is the other way around. The replacement aircraft will be delivered from 2020 onward, and these are the ones for which EK would like to have an updated engine.

Indeed, I flipped that. Thanks.

tortugamon

Quoting Scipio (Reply 129): I don't think that EK ever said that. They said that the order would serve both expansion and replacement, but I don't recall them ever providing a breakdown. They probably don't know yet and will decide this only much later based on their needs of the moment. That is what I would do...

I recall Tim Clark saying the first 25 A380s will be delivered between 2016 and 2018. Therefore, those must be for expansion. The remaining A380s will start delivering from 2020 onward, unless EK finds a way to bring in more A380s into DXB/DWC.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 130): Just like CX wasn't convinced despite having two of their five 77Ws leaving within 30 minutes of each other to LHR or two of their three 77Ws leaving within 2.5 hours of each other to JFK.

One A380 can only replace 1.5 77W aircraft. So in case of your CX example, 1 A380 would be too small and 2 A380s would be too much. They need an A380-900 to replace 2 77W aircraft on a 1:1 basis.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 127): Amedeo's current A380 portfolio brings in the neighborhood of USD 40 million a month and continues to expand as EK adds A380s.

Doric GmbH is not now called Amedeo. The owners of Doric GmbH also started Doric Lease Corporation, incorporated in Ireland, to be their leasing business. Despite them having the same owners, Doric GmbH sued Doric Lease Corporation to stop them using the 'Doric' name. So Doric Lease Corporation rebranded to Amedeo.

Upshot:
- Doric GmbH owns 39 aircraft, including a bunch of EK A380s, along with real estate and energy investments. Boss: Dr Peter Hein.
- Amedeo is a lessor, and has placed an order for 20 A380s it plans to lease to other carriers that do not have the A380. Boss: Marc Lapidus

Confusing, no?

References:
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...ase-looks-acquire-aircraft-leasing (paragraph 3)
http://www.doric.com/Investments.4.0.html

From Flightglobal[1]:

Quote: Target customers are those “large network carriers – the world’s top 10 airlines - who do not have the A380”.

If you look at Wikipedia's slicing and dicing of the world's top 10 airlines[2], the vast majority of the top 10 without A380s are US airlines - United, Delta, American. The wildcards would be Southwest and Ryanair.

If, for a different approach to determining the top 10, you look at Skytrax[3], we're talking about ANA, Cathay, Garuda, Turkish.


Who wants to take bets on Ryanair taking ten high-density A380s to open TATL ops? That'd certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons  


[1] http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ing-will-boost-a380-appeal-395861/
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_largest_airlines
[3] http://www.worldairlineawards.com/awards_2013/airline2013_top20.htm

Quoting bobdino (Reply 132): Doric GmbH is not now called Amedeo. The owners of Doric GmbH also started Doric Lease Corporation, incorporated in Ireland, to be their leasing business. Despite them having the same owners, Doric GmbH sued Doric Lease Corporation to stop them using the 'Doric' name. So Doric Lease Corporation rebranded to Amedeo.

I'm very well aware of that, since i've posted that exact same information dozens of times in this thread alone.  

I am also aware that the team that managed those assets for Doric Gmbh - including Marc Lapidus - is now the team managing Amedeo. Therefore, they understand the upsides of leasing A380s, which was the intent of my answer to the question posed about what benefit Amedeo would entail in undertaking this speculative leasing endeavor.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 134): I am also aware that the team that managed those assets for Doric Gmbh - including Marc Lapidus - is now the team managing Amedeo. Therefore, they understand the upsides of leasing A380s, which was the intent of my answer to the question posed about what benefit Amedeo would entail in undertaking this speculative leasing endeavor.

In that case, please accept my apologies for impugning your honour  

Quoting bobdino (Reply 135): In that case, please accept my apologies for impugning your honor.

No worries, sir. There are a lot of responses in this thread and the others tangentially discussing this order and it's implications. Easy enough to lose track of what has and has not been said.  

So, back to rampant speculation!

I'm going to guess at the following being customers:
- Turkish
- Cathay
- One of the US legacies.

Thoughts?

I could see Turkish doing it, however only once the new Istanbul airport is operating (and there is a thread saying that might not be as soon as planned).

While I am sure they will continue to evaluate it, I believe Cathay Pacific will not add the A380-800 in the near term now that they have placed a 777-9 order.

Of the US legacies, I tend to think that it does not fit with their network planning.



Personally, I think we need to look outside the box.

I'm kind of liking Garuda Indonesia for at least two to replace their 747-400s. They're looking to add another 10 A330-300s on top of the 17 they have on order and 7 in service as well as expanding their 737-800 and 777-300ER fleet.

Cebu Pacific could also be an option for a couple or few.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 138): I'm kind of liking Garuda Indonesia for at least two to replace their 747-400s. They're looking to add another 10 A330-300s on top of the 17 they have on order and 7 in service as well as expanding their 737-800 and 777-300ER fleet. Cebu Pacific could also be an option for a couple or few.

I'd agree with you, if it wasn't for the Lapidus quote that he's aiming at top 10 network carriers that don't already operate the A380. Garuda might squeak into that list, but I don't think Cebu would.

And I do agree with your reasoning on Turkish & Cathay. But again, there is that quote...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131): I recall Tim Clark saying the first 25 A380s will be delivered between 2016 and 2018. Therefore, those must be for expansion. The remaining A380s will start delivering from 2020 onward, unless EK finds a way to bring in more A380s into DXB/DWC.

I recall the same. However, I don't recall Tim Clark saying that the 25 aircraft that will be delivered from 2020 onward are for replacement only  

Quoting Pihero (Reply 117): Airfrance is quite happy with the plane.

There are many indications of that.

Much has been made on a.net about Air France's comments regarding the A380, however, they never actually said that they want to get rid of their A380s or will never order any more. In the infamous "not a good fit" interview with Bruno Matheu, what he actually said was that, if AF was going to order more A380s, it would not be "tens of them".

I actually see AF as a candidate for some of the Amedeo frames. They like to have a mix of owned and leased frames, and going the Amedeo route could offer them a way to right-size their A380 fleet in a financially prudent way ... They could conceivably even cancel their two remaining orders and get Amedeo frames instead.

Quoting bobdino (Reply 137): I'm going to guess at the following being customers: - Turkish - Cathay - One of the US legacies. Thoughts?

Some possibilities:

ANA -- They've long been rumored to be considering a small "trial" A380 fleet, but never went ahead with an order.
Vietnam Airlines -- Similar story: they have shown their interest but never firmed up the MoU they signed sometime in a distant past.
Air France -- See above
KLM -- Might be able to use a small fleet, but the AF-KLM group may not be willing to take on a firm order for this.
Aeroflot -- Might not be willing to stay much behind Transaero.
El Al -- Could use a few for the Tel Aviv - New York route. Politics may be an impediment though, as on past occasions.
SAA -- Perhaps a few frames for their London route. A lease deal could be politically less difficult than a purchase.
Cathay -- Not impossible. They could use a few frames for their London route, for example, and they have the precedent of their small leased A340-600 fleet. A lease deal might be a way for them to try out the A380 with limited risk.
Qantas -- Given their financial situation, leasing Amedeo A380s might be more attractive in the short to medium run than taking delivery of their remaining orders.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 140): Some possibilities: ANA -- They've long been rumored to be considering a small "trial" A380 fleet, but never went ahead with an order. Vietnam Airlines -- Similar story: they have shown their interest but never firmed up the MoU they signed sometime in a distant past. Air France -- See above KLM -- Might be able to use a small fleet, but the AF-KLM group may not be willing to take on a firm order for this. Aeroflot -- Might not be willing to stay much behind Transaero. El Al -- Could use a few for the Tel Aviv - New York route. Politics may be an impediment though, as on past occasions. SAA -- Perhaps a few frames for their London route. A lease deal could be politically less difficult than a purchase. Cathay -- Not impossible. They could use a few frames for their London route, for example, and they have the precedent of their small leased A340-600 fleet. A lease deal might be a way for them to try out the A380 with limited risk. Qantas -- Given their financial situation, leasing Amedeo A380s might be more attractive in the short to medium run than taking delivery of their remaining orders.

To add some thoughts:

* There were some rumours that AF-KLM was going to reconfigure some of their A380s into a less premium lay-out, enabling the company to deploy the aircraft on more routes, including some of KLM from Amsterdam.

* Although it would be a loss for the Airbus orderbook, I can see Virgin changing its original order for the A380 into A350s and lease some A380s from Amedeo.

* Malaysia was also looking to expand its fleet... Could be relatively low risk to lease them.

* Ethiopian keeps on growing and growing. Has several B777-300ERs on order, as well as A350s. If they have some busy routes, there might be a business case for the A380.

* Kenya Airways, see above with Ethiopian. However, I do think Africa, for now, has room for only one or two major airlines. Which may signal the end for SAA...

* Saudi Arabian (imagine that livery on the whale!) can benefit from the aircraft during the hajj and on migrant worker-flights to South-east Asia.

* Although Philippines is just returning on the international front, I can see the aircraft fitting their need on several routes.

* Over time, I still expect the A380 to become more common with Indian and Chinese airlines. If they are lease-candidates, or will outright order them with Airbus themselves, I don't know.

* Corsair is also a viable candidate for me, replacing their B744s at Orly for leisure fleights to the outposts of the French "empire".

Just my two cents for today!

Cheers!   

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 141): * There were some rumours that AF-KLM was going to reconfigure some of their A380s into a less premium lay-out, enabling the company to deploy the aircraft on more routes, including some of KLM from Amsterdam.

Air France will in fact reconfigure the A380 fleet to F | J | Y | Y+ (four class) with a new J seat.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 140): SAA -- Perhaps a few frames for their London route

They're down to A332 sized frames on that route, so I doubt it would be them...

Quoting bobdino (Reply 133): Who wants to take bets on Ryanair taking ten high-density A380s to open TATL ops? That'd certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons

Don't give MOL ideas, would probably be 17"seats at 30 pitch and pay for everything. might even make 12 across pusshing 600 seats.   

Quoting Scipio (Reply 140): Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131): I recall Tim Clark saying the first 25 A380s will be delivered between 2016 and 2018. Therefore, those must be for expansion. The remaining A380s will start delivering from 2020 onward, unless EK finds a way to bring in more A380s into DXB/DWC. I recall the same. However, I don't recall Tim Clark saying that the 25 aircraft that will be delivered from 2020 onward are for replacement only

Everything I can find at the moment says there will be 115 A380's in the fleet by 2018, that leaves 25 of the existing orders left to be delivered. Only 1 frame will need replacing in 2019 and then more from 2020 Onwards. I find it hard to believe they will stop taking deliveries and stop expansion when they get to 115 and then just take new frames as replacements. Some of the other 25 will be taken in 2018-2019 for growth.

I predict in 2015-2017, when Airbus launches the neo, EK will pony up with an order of 100 or so to cover slower growth and fleet replacements throughout the 2020 decade, all IMHO of course.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 145): I find it hard to believe they will stop taking deliveries and stop expansion when they get to 115 and then just take new frames as replacements.

Tim Clark also added EK might accelerate the remaining 25 deliveries if they can find enough space in DXB/DWC before 2020.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131): One A380 can only replace 1.5 77W aircraft. So in case of your CX example, 1 A380 would be too small and 2 A380s would be too much. They need an A380-900 to replace 2 77W aircraft on a 1:1 basis.

Good point.

Quoting bobdino (Reply 133): The wildcards would be Southwest and Ryanair.

Skymark is jumping essentially from a 737 fleet to an A380 fleet, lets not discount it! Kidding of course. I see Garuda as a reasonable option but I also see Saudi. I think they need to replace their 747s and having the big bird is something that will make them feel adequate in their region plus it appears they are using 77Ws to replace 77Es so they might be seeing more growth than I would have expected. I will add BR to my list of possibles as well. I think MH will buy more but those will come via Airbus.

Quoting bobdino (Reply 137): - One of the US legacies.

I don't see that happening. I think UA and DL would love to not have their 747s any longer but there is just no resale value so they are making the wise but painful choice to stick it out. I see them both completely out of the quad game in about 10 years time (DL is the pacer)

Quoting EnviableOne (Reply 144): Don't give MOL ideas, would probably be 17"seats at 30 pitch and pay for everything. might even make 12 across pusshing 600 seats.

I think Transaero is going over 600 seats without either of the extremes you mentioned. She is a really big bird.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 145): I find it hard to believe they will stop taking deliveries and stop expansion when they get to 115 and then just take new frames as replacements. Some of the other 25 will be taken in 2018-2019 for growth.

Its not like they don't have a lot of growth planned for that time period. I suspect they will be receiving their tail end of 80 more 77Ws (some could be for replacement though starting in 2017) as well as the meat of the A350 order around that time which will more than outpace retirements of smaller frames. Then you have the constant A380 for 77W swap meaning that the 77W goes to a new route which will still significant growth during that period as well.

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 145): I predict in 2015-2017, when Airbus launches the neo, EK will pony up with an order of 100 or so to cover slower growth and fleet replacements throughout the 2020 decade, all IMHO of course.

There is no doubt that they need another 90 just for replacement after 2018. Another big order is coming but they would be wise to wait until the improvement package is finalized so the carrot is firmly in place.

tortugamon

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 147): Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 131): One A380 can only replace 1.5 77W aircraft. So in case of your CX example, 1 A380 would be too small and 2 A380s would be too much. They need an A380-900 to replace 2 77W aircraft on a 1:1 basis. Good point.

Bad point. SQ has replaced 2 x 77W with 1 x A380 (both ZHR and CDG). Just looking at the number of seats only is just overly simplistic. It all depends on demand on the route and the balance between seats available, load factor and yield. And for intercontinental flights, slot availability and flight timing is an other important factor. Look at Cebu Pacific with their 436 seat A333 at a reported 36% load factor.... They can probably squeeze that into an A319...

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 148): SQ has replaced 2 x 77W with 1 x A380

These were two departures directly after each other?